http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/boombustblog/boombustblog/boombustblog/boombustblog/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/2009/07/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/200 en "Short Everything That Guy Has Touched" - San Fran's Lending Standards Put The Last Housing Bubble To Shame http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/short-everything-guy-has-touched-san-fran-lending-standards-put-last-housing-cycle-s <p>A perfect storm of low interest rates and a booming tech economy, which has pumped out an endless number of tech millionaires rewarded for amazing ideas like the ability to morph one's face with a squirrel, have culminated in a substantial housing bubble in Silicon Valley and the surrounding areas.&nbsp; </p> <p>As recently observed <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/these-2-forces-will-crush-san-francisco-housing-bubble">here</a> and <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-17/bursting-silicon-valleys-real-estate-bubble-has-now-spread-san-francisco">here</a>, we think this bubble is just about ready to burst. In fact, an overlay of recent housing prices in San Franciso vs. Las Vegas prices during the last cycle look fairly ominous:</p> <p><a href="http://zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2016/07/27/20160727_vegasSF.jpg"><img src="http://zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2016/07/27/20160727_vegasSF_0.jpg" alt="San Fran vs. Vegas" width="500" height="261" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Several weeks ago in a post titled "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/these-2-forces-will-crush-san-francisco-housing-bubble">These 2 Forces Will Crush the San Francisco Housing Bubble</a>," we presented the combination of plateauing employment with an accelerating expansion of housing supply as a nasty combination for home prices in Silicon Valley.&nbsp; That said, we would like to add 1 more "force" to the list which is a return of extremely aggressive lending practices, painfully similar to the previous housing bubble.&nbsp; </p> <p>As noted in a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/zero-down-on-a-2-million-house-is-no-problem-in-silicon-valley">Bloomberg </a>article today, <strong>the $0 down, 30-year, adjustable-rate, jumbo mortgage backed by illiquid stock options in tech start-ups, a loan which the San Francisco Federal Credit Union has coined POPPY, or Proud Ownership Purchase Program for You (because "Steaming Pile of Shit" just didn't seem appropriate and messaging really is everything when you're trying to dump loans overseas), has made a huge comeback in Silicon Valley.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>As the San Francisco Federal Credit Union pointed out, it's often not home values that keep people in rentals but rather the inability of potential buyers to come up with a down payment which would be equal to $187,000 on the median home in San Francisco.&nbsp; So they decided to solve that silly little problem with POPPY.&nbsp; To our "surprise", POPPY has been a huge success and the credit union is sitting on a backlog of $100 million of pre-approved, 30-year, adjustable-rate mortgages just waiting to be funded.</p> <p>Not wanting to be outdone by their tech brethren, local banks have become very "innovative" in their race to "disrupt" the old-school approach to mortgage lending that requires things like down payments and rigorous credit checks.&nbsp; Per Bloomberg:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>At Social Finance, the strategy is about getting in on the ground floor, which it aims to do through its marketing partnerships with 22 companies and a promise of an answer on a loan application within a day to help speed up the home-buying process.&nbsp; SoFi also woos clients with loan officers who fight to help them win bidding wars against cash buyers.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>First Republic Bank -- which gave Facebook Inc. billionaire Mark Zuckerberg a 1.05% interest-rate mortgage -- has <strong>opened branches in Facebook and Twitter Inc. headquarters</strong>. </p> </blockquote> <p>As Glenn Kelman, CEO of the brokerage Redfin, concluded <strong>"It’s a smart bet to cater to a sector that’s created thousands of millionaires and dozens of billionaires."</strong>&nbsp; </p> <p>Our thoughts are best summarized by Steve Carroll at the very end of the clip below:</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/A25EUhZGBws" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/short-everything-guy-has-touched-san-fran-lending-standards-put-last-housing-cycle-s#comments credit union Housing Bubble Housing Prices Las Vegas Twitter Twitter Thu, 28 Jul 2016 01:48:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 567462 at http://www.zerohedge.com Bernie Supporters Boo, Chant "No More Wars" As Leon Panetta Pitches Hillary's War Credentials http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/bernie-supporters-boo-chant-no-more-wars-leon-panetta-pitches-hillarys-war-credentia <p>Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta<strong> reinforced Hillary Clinton's position as a warmonger</strong> in his speech at the Democratic National Convention tonight. Amid various jabs at Donald Trump, Panetta exclaimed the danger of "withdrawal" of American forces from the world and the apparent need for more status quo interventionism; but the <strong>'reportedly' united Democratic convention seemed not to agree</strong>. Bernie Sanders' supporters drowned out Panetta's claims that Hillary masterminded Bin Laden's killing with <strong><em>boos and chants of "no more war," and "lies."</em></strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/distracting-democrats-collude-again-question-loyalty-us-treasonous-traitor-trump">Having already slammed Donald Trump with regard Russia</a>,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“I just think that’s beyond the pale,” he said to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.<strong> "I think that kind of statement reflects that he is truly not qualified to be president of the United States.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The former CIA Head then proclaimed falsely that,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"Trump..is asking one of our adversaries to engage in hacking or intelligence efforts against the US to affect our election."</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>But it was his reinforcement of Hillary Clinton's war credentials that appeared to upset the clearly-divided Democratic party the most, as Bernie supporters drowned him out for a few moments with chants of "no more wars" and "lies" amid their booing...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DemsInPhilly?src=hash">#DemsInPhilly</a> Crowd chanting "No more war" as Fmr Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks. Some boo him. <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSDFW">@CBSDFW</a> <a href="https://t.co/vajUvBISOF">pic.twitter.com/vajUvBISOF</a></p> <p>— Jack Fink (@cbs11jack) <a href="https://twitter.com/cbs11jack/status/758466260917256192">July 28, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Excerpts from Panetta's speech:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>This president is Hillary Clinton. During my time as CIA Director and Secretary of Defense,<strong> Hillary was a strong supporter of our efforts to protect our homeland, decimate al-Qaeda, and bring Osama bin Laden to justice. </strong>It was a tough decision to go after bin Laden. In long meetings in the White House Situation Room, we debated that fateful decision.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I presented the intelligence to the President, laying out the risks. And when the President went around the table to the country's national security leadership, <strong>Hillary was clear: We have to go get bin Laden.</strong> And our Special Operations Forces did just that. And they sent a clear message to the world that no one attacks America and gets away with it.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Hillary is just as determined to defeat those who threaten us today:</strong> ISIS, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab. Terrorists who pervert the teachings of Islam to kill innocent people going about their daily lives, people traveling through airports in Brussels and Istanbul, families celebrating on the beachfront in France, men and women shopping in a market in Baghdad, and just this week, an 85-year-old priest whose throat was slit by terrorists who stormed his church during Mass. These murderers must be stopped.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Hillary Clinton is the only candidate who has laid out a comprehensive plan to defeat and destroy ISIS and keep America safe. She is smart. <strong>She is principled.</strong> She is tough and she is ready. Hillary is the single most experienced and prepared person who has ever run for president.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>We cannot afford someone who believes America should withdraw from the world, threatens our international treaties, and violates our moral principles.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289553-panetta-interrupted-by-no-more-war-chants">As The Hill reports, </a>Panetta appeared very flustered as he stood on stage waiting for the chants to end.<br /> <blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"> <p lang="en" dir="ltr">The audience starts shouting &quot;no more war&quot; while Leon Panetta speaks <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DemsInPhilly?src=hash">#DemsInPhilly</a> <a href="https://t.co/TAG0SqRvbP">https://t.co/TAG0SqRvbP</a> <a href="https://t.co/D4wn5MhOFO">https://t.co/D4wn5MhOFO</a></p> <p>&mdash; CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/758466039420256256">July 28, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>As Panetta continued to speak,<strong> the lights were dimmed over the sections of Sanders supporters, an apparent effort to silence them.&nbsp; </strong> </p><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But the protesters were undeterred and<strong> lit up cell phone flashlights in protest.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The chants undercut a portion of the convention dedicated to promoting Clinton's national security bonafides.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Retired Rear Adm. John Hutson's speech was also cut off by chants from the California delegation</strong>. But the chants appeared unrelated to his speech, which praised the former secretary of State's readiness to be president and attacked Trump as reckless on foreign policy. </p> </blockquote> <p>We have one word: Unity?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/07/25/20160726_unity.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/07/25/20160726_unity.jpg" width="452" height="342" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="484" height="202" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_p%5Banetta.jpg?1469668748" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/bernie-supporters-boo-chant-no-more-wars-leon-panetta-pitches-hillarys-war-credentia#comments Donald Trump France national security Twitter Twitter White House Thu, 28 Jul 2016 01:23:58 +0000 Tyler Durden 567483 at http://www.zerohedge.com Richard Koo: If Helicopter Money Succeeds, It Will Lead To 1,500% Inflation http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/richard-koo-if-helicopter-money-succeeds-it-will-lead-1500-inflation <p>After today's uneventful Fed announcement, all eyes turn to the BOJ where many anticipate some form of "helicopter money" is about to be unveiled in Japan by the world's most experimental central bank. </p> <p>However, as Nomura's Richard Koo warns, central banks may get much more than they bargained for, because helicopter money "<strong>probably marks the end of the road for believers in the omnipotence of monetary policy</strong> who have continued to press for further accommodation in the midst of a balance sheet recession, <strong>when such policies simply cannot work</strong>." </p> <p>As he continues, believers "have doggedly insisted that it is possible to control inflation because (1) inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon and (2) central banks control the supply of money. Based on this belief, they have implemented a variety of policies including quantitative easing, negative interest rates, forward guidance, and inflation targeting, each of which has failed to produce expected results. <strong>Now they have reached the end of the line, and the signpost reads “Last stop: helicopter money.</strong>”</p> <p>Koo continues to unload on central bankers, slamming their "faith that the economy will pick up if only money is dropped from the sky" that has provided a psychological foundation for economists and policymakers convinced of the efficacy of monetary policy. It also explains why nothing has worked yet. The Nomura strategist then mocks <strong>"their belief that dropping money from helicopters would revive the economy that has led them to assume that slightly less extreme policies such as quantitative easing and inflation targeting would also have a positive economic impact </strong>(albeit a more modest one)."</p> <p>This is precisely what we said in <a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/fed-to-buy-treasuries-it-prints-to-fund.html">March 2009 </a>when the Fed first launched QE, and were mocked. It has now become mainstream. </p> <p>* * * </p> <p>We also predicted that the endgame will ultimately be hyperinflation, after an extended period of intermediary steps in which central bankers stumble from one interim, and flawed, "solution" to another, until they finally hit the monetary endgame...&nbsp; which is where we are now. </p> <p>Koo admits as much by highlighting the <em><strong>paradox of helicopter money </strong></em>&nbsp; (assuming the form it is most likely to be implemented under, i.e., financing of deficits) namely that if and when it is ultimately successful, it will assure hyperinflation. This is how he puts it:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Eventually the private sector will complete its balance sheet repairs and resume borrowing. When that happens, <strong>inflation can quickly spiral out of control unless the central bank drains the liquidity it pumped into the market under quantitative easing or helicopter money. </strong>For example, excess reserves created by the Fed currently amount to some 15 times the level of statutory reserves. <strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>That implies that if businesses and households were to resume borrowing in earnest, the US money supply could balloon to 15 times its current size, sending inflation as high as 1,500%. </strong>The corresponding ratios are 28 times for Japan and Switzerland, five times for the eurozone, and 11 times for the UK. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Once private-sector demand for loans recovers in these countries, <strong>confidence in the dollar, euro, and yen will plummet </strong>unless the Fed reduces excess reserves to one-fifteenth of their current level, the ECB to one-fifth, and the Bank of Japan to one-twenty-eighth.</p> </blockquote> <p>So what's the problem: just soak up reserves, i.e., sell central bank assets? </p> <p>However, as Koo puts it, "that sort of extreme reduction in reserves will require the central bank to sell the bonds it holds, <strong>which would be a nightmare for both the economy and the bond market.</strong>"</p> <p>In short, it would result in a bidless (already illiquid) bond market with yields exploding, and likewise trigger an explosion in inflation as suddenly interest rates go through the roof, countless companies default on their debt, and the value of both debt and credit implode. </p> <p>* * * </p> <p><em>Below we present selected excerpts from Koo's full "cost-benefit analysis" of helicopter money, and specifically the four forms it could take, and why each of them is ultimately doomed.</em></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Dropping money from the sky</strong></span></p> <p>A look at the helicopter money debate in Japan and elsewhere shows that the actual policies being discussed can be classified into four main types. The first is helicopter money in the literal sense of dropping money from helicopters. Would this work? In Japan, at least, it would be another complete failure. <strong>This is because when the typical Japanese finds a 10,000-yen note lying on the ground, she will turn it in at the nearest police station rather than spend it. </strong>Put differently, <strong>a helicopter money policy can only work if the people in a country have little sense of right and wrong.</strong></p> <p><strong>No seller would exchange products for money that fell from the sky</strong></p> <p>Another critical omission from the argument that helicopter money will resuscitate the economy is that it focuses exclusively on the logic of buyers while ignoring the logic of sellers.&nbsp; Unethical buyers may try to go shopping with money that has fallen from the sky, but there is no reason for sellers to accept such money. Sellers are willing to take money in exchange for goods and services only because the supply of that money is strictly controlled by the central bank. If money starts falling from the sky, sellers will refuse to accept it as payment for their products. If the authorities actually began dropping money from helicopters, shops would either close their doors or demand payment in foreign currency or gold, and the economy would quickly collapse. There is no economy so wretched as one that no longer has a national currency the people trust.</p> <p><strong>Helicopter money not the ultimate form of monetary accommodation</strong></p> <p>In light of the above, the argument that monetary policy can be relied upon to boost the economy because helicopter money is the ultimate form of monetary accommodation and always works can be seen to be complete nonsense that ignores the standpoint of sellers. <strong>Taking monetary accommodation to those extremes would lead to the economy’s collapse, not its recovery. There is no case in recorded history of an economy without a credible national currency outperforming an economy that has one.&nbsp;</strong> </p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Financing government deficits </strong></span></p> <p>In response to this criticism, some proponents of helicopter money would probably say that the helicopter money policies now being discussed do not involve actually dropping money from the sky but rather call for direct financing of government fiscal expenditures by the central bank. In this, the second version of helicopter money, the money is supplied in a way that is not immediately visible to ordinary citizens, so it may take time before sellers begin refusing to sell, but the problems that remain are no different from those of quantitative easing.</p> <p><strong>Financing of fiscal expenditures during balance sheet recession does not stimulate economy</strong></p> <p>Fiscal stimulus itself can provide a large boost to the economy. But while direct financing by the central bank may increase reserves in the banking system, those reserves will be trapped in the banking system because there are no private-sector borrowers during a balance sheet recession even at zero interest rates. Prime examples include post-1990 Japan and the leading Western economies since 2008. At such times, the “direct” part of the direct financing of fiscal stimulus cannot stimulate the economy or raise inflation any more than the “non-direct” QE. <strong>Both growth and inflation have remained at depressed levels in Japan (since 1990) and the West (since 2008) regardless of how accommodative monetary policy has become because the private sector stopped borrowing after the bubble collapse slashed the value of its assets but left its liabilities intact</strong>.</p> <p><strong>Question of how to mop up excess liquidity has not been answered</strong></p> <p>Eventually the private sector will complete its balance sheet repairs and resume borrowing. When that happens, inflation can quickly spiral out of control unless the central bank drains the liquidity it pumped into the market under quantitative easing or helicopter money. For example, excess reserves created by the Fed currently amount to some 15 times the level of statutory reserves. That implies that if businesses and households were to resume borrowing in earnest, <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>the US money supply could balloon to 15 times its current size, sending inflation as high as 1,500%. </strong></span>The corresponding ratios are 28 times for Japan and Switzerland, five times for the eurozone, and 11 times for the UK. Once private-sector demand for loans recovers in these countries, confidence in the dollar, euro, and yen will plummet unless the Fed reduces excess reserves to one-fifteenth of their current level, the ECB to one-fifth, and the Bank of Japan to one-twenty-eighth.</p> <p>But that sort of extreme reduction in reserves will require the central bank to sell the bonds it holds, which would be a nightmare for both the economy and the bond market. It would be a different matter if we were talking about future increases in reserves under a helicopter money policy, but the Fed has already created some $2.5trn in excess reserves under quantitative easing, and the BOJ has created ¥250trn, which means the monetary authorities cannot avoid the issue of draining those funds from the market.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3. Government scrip and perpetual zero-coupon bonds</strong></span></p> <p>A third version of helicopter money involves government money printing or the replacement of the JGBs held by the BOJ with perpetual zero-coupon bonds. The people proposing these policies hope that fiscal stimulus financed by government scrip or perpetual zero-coupon bonds, which are not viewed as government liabilities, will elicit spending from people who are currently saving because of concerns about the size of the fiscal deficit and the likelihood of future tax increases. <strong>Economists refer to this reluctance to spend because of worries about future tax hikes as the Ricardian equivalence. </strong>If true, it implies that consumption will increase each time the government raises taxes since higher taxes mean lower deficit in the future. <strong>The fact that this phenomenon has never once been observed in the real world suggests it is nothing more than an empty theory.</strong></p> <p>Moreover, there are serious issues that must be confronted once the economy picks up and the liquidity supplied by the monetary authorities via government scrip or zero-coupon perpetuals must be drained from the system. Perpetual zero-coupon bonds are essentially worthless, which means the BOJ cannot sell them—no one in the private sector would be stupid enough to buy them. That means the only way to mop up the excess reserves created via the issue of perpetual zero-coupon bonds is for the BOJ to ask the MOF to issue equivalent amounts of coupon-bearing bonds. The same would be true when trying to mop up reserves created by government scrip. Once this scrip starts circulating, it becomes part of the monetary base, and draining it from the system will require the government to absorb it by issuing bonds. And in the case of both perpetuals and government scrip, the government that issued the bonds cannot spend the proceeds. If the government spends them, the liquidity that had been mopped up will flow back into the economy again. Those recommending the issuance of government scrip or perpetual zero-coupon bonds say that one advantage of this approach is that it does not lead to an expansion of government liabilities (upon issuance). However, they will become massive government liabilities when the economy eventually recovers and they must be mopped up.</p> <p><strong>Helicopter money proponents silent on issue of mopping up reserves</strong></p> <p>In other words, the biggest issue with helicopter money—as with quantitative easing—is the question of how to drain these funds from the system. It becomes clear just how problematic both policies are when the difficulty of draining reserves is taken into account. Yet in all the discussion about helicopter money and quantitative easing in Japan and elsewhere, almost no one has touched on the massive costs involved in mopping up the excess reserves created under these policies. Everyone emphasizes the benefits of these policies when introduced while ignoring that those benefits are small indeed when we examine the costs and benefits over the policy’s lifetime. As one example of this bias, Waseda University professor Masazumi Wakatabe argued in a Nikkei column titled “Easy Economics” that helicopter money is preferable to quantitative easing inasmuch as it enables the government to undertake fiscal stimulus without increasing its liabilities.</p> <p>I suspect that the helicopter money envisioned by Mr. Wakatabe involves the issuance of government scrip or direct central bank underwriting of perpetual zero-coupon bonds. However, he makes no mention whatsoever of how the liquidity created via these methods will be drained from the system once private-sector demand for loans recovers.</p> <p><strong>Helicopter money offers no benefits whatsoever over policy’s lifetime</strong></p> <p>As described above, the only way to mop up liquidity that has been created using these methods is for the government to issue bonds and not spend the proceeds. I think this would be more difficult from both a legal and practical perspective than winding down quantitative easing, which in itself is no easy task. Moreover, the amount of government debt that must ultimately be acquired by the private sector is no different from a case in which the government had issued bonds to fund fiscal stimulus from the outset.</p> <p>In short, whether fiscal stimulus is funded with government scrip and zero-coupon bonds or with the ordinary issue of government debt, the size of the government’s liabilities will be the same in the end. Helicopter money offers no benefits whatsoever when viewed over the lifetime of the policy, including the eventual need to mop up liquidity.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>4. Handing cash directly to consumers</strong></span></p> <p>A fourth version of helicopter money involves handing out money directly to consumers, without requiring it to pass through financial institutions. In this scenario, a consumer might open her mailbox one morning to find an envelope from the Bank of Japan containing ¥1mn. While that discovery may bring momentary happiness, I suspect she may feel a chill down her spine once she realizes everyone around her had received similar envelopes. And if such envelopes arrived day after day, the entire country would quickly fall into a panic as people lose all sense of what their currency is worth. Regardless of what buyers might wish to do, sellers would be forced to protect themselves, with stores putting up signs requesting payment in either foreign currency or gold. This is a nightmare scenario.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p><strong>Why is helicopter money so popular?</strong></p> <p>What I find fascinating is why so many pundits in Japan and elsewhere continue to promote policies like quantitative easing and helicopter money while completely ignoring the need to eventually mop up all the liquidity created under these policies. One possibility is that this marks the last stand of the academic economists who have been insisting for the past three decades that monetary policy is the solution to all economic problems. Mr. Wakatabe, for example, declared without irony that “the problem of how to increase nominal GDP always has an answer: helicopter money.” This argument completely ignores sellers’ reactions and the ultimate cost of mopping up excess liquidity. Yet even Mr. Wakatabe acknowledged in the aforementioned Nikkei column that no matter how much money the central bank supplies under quantitative easing, “the money available for people to use will not increase unless financial institutions start lending more.” This statement suggests that the professor has finally realized the shortcomings of monetary policy during a balance sheet recession, something we have been talking about for the last 20 years. And that, in turn, may be why these economists are now leaning in the direction of helicopter money, which could go directly to the households and not depend on financial institutions.</p> <p><strong>Will private-sector loan demand ever recover?</strong></p> <p>Another possibility is that these economists are assuming private-sector loan demand will never recover. If that were in fact the case, there would be no need to mop up the liquidity, and consequently no need to worry about the attendant costs. The current economic slump could continue indefinitely if people who had terrible experiences digging themselves out of debt following the asset bubble’s collapse decided they would never again borrow money. In that case there would be no need for the central bank to move quickly to mop up the funds created under quantitative easing and helicopter money. It is extremely difficult to project when the private sector will overcome its debt trauma and resume borrowing, inasmuch as <strong>there are few historical instances in which an economy has emerged from a balance sheet recession</strong>. But I think it is dangerous to keep quantitative easing and helicopter money policies in place based on the assumption that the current situation will continue forever. After all, success for all policies including helicopter money is defined as a recovery in private-sector demand for loans.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="599" height="462" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Bernanke%20chopper_9.jpg?1469659428" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/richard-koo-if-helicopter-money-succeeds-it-will-lead-1500-inflation#comments Balance Sheet Recession Bank of Japan Bond Central Banks default Eurozone Excess Reserves Hyperinflation Japan Monetary Base Monetary Policy Money Supply Nikkei Nominal GDP Nomura Quantitative Easing Recession recovery Richard Koo Switzerland Yen Thu, 28 Jul 2016 01:13:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 567472 at http://www.zerohedge.com "Real, Imminent Threat" That Next World War Will Be Initiated By First Strike EMP Weapon http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/real-imminent-threat-next-world-war-will-be-initiated-first-strike-emp-weapon <p><a href="http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/the-threat-is-real-and-imminent-the-next-world-war-will-be-initiated-by-a-first-strike-utilizing-an-emp-weapon_07262016"><em>Submitted by Jeremiah Johnson (nom de plume of retired Green Beret, US Army Special Forces (Airborne)) via SHTFPlan.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong>There has been a tremendous amount of technological interchange between North Korea, the Russians, and the Chinese.</strong>&nbsp; North Korea has also been working for years in the refinement (development) of its nuclear arsenal, especially in partnership with Pakistan and Iran.&nbsp; In a press conference at the Pentagon on October 24, 2014 reporters were briefed by General Curtis Scaparrotti, the U.S. Military Commander in Korea.&nbsp; This is what the general had to say:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;I believe they [the North Koreans] have the capability to have miniaturized the [nuclear] device at this point, and they have the technology to potentially, actually deliver what they say they have.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>On March 9, 2016, Kim Jong-Un for the first time stated that North Korea had accomplished the miniaturization of nuclear warheads that are compatible with ICBM&rsquo;s.&nbsp; Admiral William Gortney, Commander of US NORTHCOM was in front of a Senate Committee on March 10, 2016 briefing them on the potential North Korean nuclear threat.&nbsp; The Admiral stated it was &ldquo;prudent to assume Pyongyang had the ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead&rdquo; and deliver it via ICBM that could actually strike the continental U.S.</p> <p>Finally, (and the most compelling proponent of the danger posed by North Korea), Dr. Peter V. Pry, the foremost expert on EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) threats by established and rogue nations has <strong>long upheld that Iran and North Korea hold an EMP first strike as central to their current military doctrines.</strong>&nbsp; Pry has spent countless hours briefing Senate Investigating Committees on the dangers of an EMP strike by these two nations.</p> <p>This year the North Koreans have ramped up their missile tests exponentially, building off of their R&amp;D for the past five years.&nbsp; Kwangmyongsong-3, Unit 2 satellite was placed into orbit December 12, 2012.&nbsp; Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite was successfully launched February 7, 2016.&nbsp; In April 2016 they tested an ICBM engine.&nbsp; May 2015 saw their claim of a successful SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) test, their first. Then this year, March 23, 2016, (as reported by CNN&rsquo;s Don Melvin, Jim Sciutto, and Wil Ripley on April 24), their success became a reality.&nbsp; Here is an excerpt from that report by CNN:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;</em></strong><strong><em>After previous launch attempts by Pyongyang failed, this one seems to have gone much better, one U.S. official noted.</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>&ldquo;North Korea&rsquo;s sub launch capability has gone from a joke to something very serious,&rdquo; this official said. &ldquo;The U.S. is watching this very closely.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>Asked whether the test was successful, another U.S. official told CNN, &ldquo;essentially yes.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The missile traveled 30 km as opposed to the 300 km intended by North Korea, but this is the point: <strong>North Korea successfully launched the missile from the submarine</strong>.&nbsp; As can be seen, a U.S. official categorized the test as being successful, as well as another one noting the seriousness of North Korea&rsquo;s newfound capability.&nbsp; They have recently been launching short and medium-range missiles in tests, and these tests have been conducted regularly over the past 6 months and almost nonstop.</p> <p>On July 22, <a href="http://www.janes.com/" target="_blank">Jane&rsquo;s Defence Weekly</a> reported that North Korea has constructed a fortified structure (docks) that can potentially shelter ballistic missile-carrying submarines.&nbsp; Although the report was just made, it was satellite photo imagery that indicated these submarine pens had neared project completion and they were being covered with earth.&nbsp; The satellite photos indicated that the two enclosures measure 490 feet in length by 32 feet in width, with there being about 50 feet in between the two of them.&nbsp; The project had actually been started back in October of 2013.</p> <p>These are pretty serious reports, and as much as they are laughed at and disparaged, the North Koreans are in deadly earnest about doggedly attaining advances in their nuclear forces&rsquo; capabilities.&nbsp; In March of 2016, North Korea threatened that it would conduct a &ldquo;preemptive and offensive nuclear strike.&rdquo; The &ldquo;balance&rdquo; that has been made is simple, effected by simpletons, as such:</p> <p>The North Koreans threaten to strike and bluster their nuclear capability.&nbsp; The United States responds with, &ldquo;Oh, they can&rsquo;t do that,&rdquo; or &ldquo;they don&rsquo;t have the technology,&rdquo; or some other such scoffing characterization.</p> <p>The frightening thing about this <em>tete</em>&ndash;<em>a</em>&ndash;<em>tete</em> is that neither side&rsquo;s leaders or elites will face any kind of danger or peril that would result from a nuclear conflagration, but the populations of both countries would suffer immeasurably.&nbsp; A general and an admiral have stated their belief in the miniaturization capabilities of North Korea regarding nuclear warheads.&nbsp; The foremost expert on the EMP has provided prima facie evidence before the Senate and numerous commissions attesting to those capabilities.&nbsp; Each day North Korea ramps up its tests and its threats.&nbsp; Russia and China publicly whisper their disapproval of such actions and words while taking no steps to actually stop them.</p> <p><strong>The next world war <span style="text-decoration: underline;">will</span> be initiated by a first strike utilizing an EMP weapon.</strong></p> <p><strong>There is no timetable.&nbsp; The threat is real, and it is imminent.&nbsp; It is a matter of time before it is carried out</strong>.&nbsp; Do you want something more tangible?&nbsp; Here it is.&nbsp; Now would be a good time to construct the necessary <a href="http://readynutrition.com/resources/diy-faraday-cage-ideas_09052012/" target="_blank">Faraday cages</a> for your sensitive electronic equipment you wish to have after a war commences.&nbsp; You&rsquo;ll also need <a href="http://preppersmarket.com/?affiliates=28" target="_blank">emergency food</a>, water, medicine, and a <a href="http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/a-green-berets-guide-to-low-budget-home-defense-techniques-101-early-warning-systems-and-fortifications_03292015" target="_blank">stockpile of materials to defend it</a>, hopefully in a <a href="http://www.americanredoubtrealty.com/" target="_blank">remote location</a>.</p> <p><strong>Naysayers and politicians have one thing in common: denial of the reality of a situation.&nbsp; </strong>The difference is that the first group is usually unprepared when it happens and they are ignorant of the situation (in terms of information, and this partially due to denial).&nbsp; The politicians and leaders are the exact opposite: they deny the reality to obfuscate their complete knowledge of the reality, and they are <a href="http://amzn.to/TwaloQ" target="_blank">completely prepared for what will unfold</a>&hellip;and <strong>those politicians and leaders are prepped and defended on your dime</strong>, in every way.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="490" height="267" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_EMP.jpg?1469654734" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/real-imminent-threat-next-world-war-will-be-initiated-first-strike-emp-weapon#comments China Iran KIM North Korea Reality Thu, 28 Jul 2016 00:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567466 at http://www.zerohedge.com China Unveils 'Pokemon Go Danger' Public Service Announcement http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/china-unleashes-pokemon-go-danger-public-service-announcement <p>Following reports of an Ohio man shot three times and robbed of his phone while playing 'Pokemon Go', it seemed appropriate to share China's latest Public Service Announcement...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Chinese news channel created this animation to warn people of the dangers associated with Pokemon Go.</p> <p>LMAO <a href="https://t.co/EWygjUepeX">pic.twitter.com/EWygjUepeX</a></p> <p>— ZhugeEX (@ZhugeEX) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/757691290268172288">July 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="497" height="306" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_pokemon.jpg?1469641157" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/china-unleashes-pokemon-go-danger-public-service-announcement#comments China Ohio Twitter Twitter Thu, 28 Jul 2016 00:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567458 at http://www.zerohedge.com Democrats Question "Loyalty To US" Of "Treasonous, Traitor" Trump http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/distracting-democrats-collude-again-question-loyalty-us-treasonous-traitor-trump <p>In a <strong>full court propaganda press,</strong> enabling by a liberal media that can read polling data as well as anyone else, the<strong> &#39;wild conspiracy theory&#39;</strong> that Donald Trump coordinated with Putin to hack and expose DNC emails (that prove the level of rigging and collusion that is too much to bear for many democracy-seeking citizens) has now <strong>become confirmed fact</strong>... entirely lacking any actual facts. In a desperate bid to regain the narrative, as any convention bounce is erased for Hillary Clinton, <strong>her surrogates,<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289508-dems-begin-treason-talk-against-trump"> as The Hill reports,</a> have now stepped it up, calling Trump &quot;treasonous&quot; and a &quot;traitor,&quot; questioning &quot;his loyalty to America.&quot;</strong></p> <p>Having earlier stated that he wished <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-26/maybe-putin-did-it-after-all-trail-emerges-linking-dnc-email-hack-russia">Russian hackers</a> accused of breaching the DNC also obtained emails deleted from Clinton&rsquo;s personal server...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;If they hacked, they probably have her 30,000 emails,&rdquo;</strong></em> he said during a press conference at his Miami-area hotel. &quot;I hope they do.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;<strong>Russia, if you are listening, I hope you are able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.</strong> I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by the press.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>The Democrats have mobilized everyone to change the narrative away from the corruption, rigging, and collusion that is barely beneath the surface of the contentious convention...<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/289508-dems-begin-treason-talk-against-trump"><em> (via The Hill)</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;He is inviting an<strong> aggressive country</strong> that we are really worried about to invade us,&rdquo; Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.) said on MSNBC. <u><strong>&quot;This is &mdash; this is ridiculous, and, frankly, it borders on treasonous.&quot;</strong></u></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;It&rsquo;s terrifying he&rsquo;s doing as well as he is,&quot; she added of the GOP&#39;s presidential nominee.<strong> &quot;I don&rsquo;t think this is a man who has any interest in understanding the complexity of foreign policy.&quot;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Rep. Steve Israel (N.Y.) closely echoed McCaskill&rsquo;s concerns during his own interview with MSNBC on Wednesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;<u><strong>Well, that borders on treason. </strong></u>Never before have I heard of or seen a candidate not just for president, but for anything, invite a foreign spy agency to hack America&rsquo;s computers. It&rsquo;s one thing to be unfit for command, but today he&rsquo;s <strong>proved he&rsquo;s dangerously unfit for command</strong>.&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Former CIA Director and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta earlier Wednesday questioned Trump&rsquo;s loyalty to the U.S. following the billionaire&rsquo;s comments.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I just think that&rsquo;s beyond the pale,&rdquo; he said to CNN&rsquo;s Christiane Amanpour.<strong> &quot;I think that kind of statement reflects that he is truly not qualified to be president of the United States.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Rep. Eliot Engel (N.Y.) said Trump&rsquo;s comments may encourage further Russian meddling in the general presidential election. Russia is accused of hacking the Democratic National Committee&#39;s (DNC) emails and leaking them to WikiLeaks, which released nearly 20,000 of them last week.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Vladimir Putin is working to influence an American election, and <strong>a major-party candidate wants to benefit from this foreign interference by encouraging more illegal hacks</strong>,&rdquo; Engel said in a statement.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;<strong>We cannot allow Russia to manipulate American democracy, and we cannot stay quiet when a major American political figure invites foreign influence into American voting booths</strong>,&quot; said Engel, a ranking member on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer (Md.) said Trump&rsquo;s comments raise serious concerns about his patriotism.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;To call on a foreign adversary to commit an illegal act of cybercrime and espionage in order to <strong>undermine a political rival is not only un-American, it undermines our national security,</strong>&rdquo; he said in a statement.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>&quot;Undermining a politcal rival&quot;? Now who would do such a thing? Debbie?</strong> Guilty... guilty... guilty... we hear them cry... we are somewhat reminded of this...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZNeq2Utm0nU" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>But seriously, of course, Trump never lied under oath; was not responsible for the content of the incriminating emails; and, like many others (except the mainstream media), is perhaps rightly interested in whether anyone (from the NSA to Guccifer) has those 30,000 deleted emails.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-26/maybe-putin-did-it-after-all-trail-emerges-linking-dnc-email-hack-russia">We come back to our previous conclusion as to how this sound and fury plays out</a>...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>To be sure all of the above ac is <strong>circumstantial </strong>and while we have no independent insight into any of the above, we are confident that now that the trail has grown &quot;warm&quot;, the FBI - which yesterday said that Russia is a prime suspect - will use this as a foundation upon which to build a case blaming the Kremlin for interfering in US politics... <strong><em>will there be more YouTube video proof?</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Which then begs the question: just like in the case of Snowden whose &quot;treasonous&quot; act has made him into a cult hero for a great part of the US population due to his pursuit of government accountability, would a Russian hack - if confirmed - be seen as a hostile act, or - when considering the dramatic revelations - one of much needed transparency into corrupt US political practices.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And even if the FBI does find Putin as the gulty party, just how will the US respond? <strong>Will this be the first case of &quot;cyberespionage&quot; that escalates to some more conventional form of militaristic retaliation?</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="237" height="168" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_trumpputin.jpg?1469663840" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/distracting-democrats-collude-again-question-loyalty-us-treasonous-traitor-trump#comments Claire McCaskill Corruption Donald Trump FBI Israel MSNBC national security SPY Steny Hoyer Transparency Vladimir Putin Wed, 27 Jul 2016 23:59:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 567477 at http://www.zerohedge.com Insanity In Japan http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/insanity-japan <p><em><a href="http://www.720global.com/">Submitted by Michael Lebowitz via 720Global.com </a>(<a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/kyoki-insanity/">h/t Lance Roberts at RealInvestmentAdvice.com</a>),</em></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Pondering the state of the global economy can elicit manic?depressive?obsessive?compulsive&nbsp;emotions. </strong>The volatility of global markets &ndash; equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, etc. &ndash; are&nbsp;challenging enough without consideration of Brexit, the U.S. Presidential election, radical&nbsp;Islamic terrorism and so on. Yet no discussion of economic and market environments is&nbsp;complete without giving hefty consideration to what may be a major shift in the way economic&nbsp;policy is conducted in Japan.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>The Japanese economy has been the poster child for economic malaise and bad fortune for so&nbsp;long that even the most radical policy responses no longer garner much attention.</strong> In fact,&nbsp;recent policy actions intended to weaken the Yen have resulted in significant appreciation of&nbsp;the yen against the currencies of Japan&rsquo;s major trade partners, further crippling economic&nbsp;activity. The frustration of an appreciating currency coupled with deflation and zero economic&nbsp;growth has <strong>produced signs that what Japan has in store for the world falls squarely in to the&nbsp;category of <em>&ldquo;you ain&rsquo;t seen nothin&rsquo; yet.&rdquo;</em> </strong> Assuming new fiscal and monetary policies will be&nbsp;similar to those enacted in the past is a big risk that should be contemplated by investors.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>The Last 25 Years</strong></span></h3> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>The Japanese economy has been fighting weak growth and deflationary forces for over 25&nbsp;years.</strong> Japan&rsquo;s equity market and real estate bubbles burst in the first week of 1990, presaging&nbsp;deflation and stagnant economic growth ever since. Despite countless monetary and fiscal&nbsp;efforts to combat these economic ailments, nothing seems to work.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Any economist worth his salt has multiple reasons for the depth and breadth of these issues but&nbsp;very few get to the heart of the problem. The typical analysis suggests that weak growth in&nbsp;Japan is primarily being caused by weak demand. Over the last 25 years, insufficient demand,&nbsp;or a lack of consumption, has been addressed by increasingly incentivizing the population and&nbsp;the government to consume more by taking on additional debt. <strong>That incentive is produced via&nbsp;lower interest rates. If demand really is the problem, however, then some version of these&nbsp;policies should have worked, but to date they have not.</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">If the real problem, however, is too much debt, which at 255% of Japan&rsquo;s GDP seems a&nbsp;reasonable assumption to us, <strong>then the misdiagnoses and resulting ill?designed policy response&nbsp;leads to even slower growth, more persistent deflationary pressures and exacerbates the&nbsp;original problem.</strong> The graphs below shows that economic activity is currently at levels last seen&nbsp;in 1993, yet the level of debt has risen 360% since 1996. The charts provide evidence that<br />Japan&rsquo;s crippling level of debt is not helping the economy recover and in fact is creating massive&nbsp;headwinds.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/07/25/japinsanity1.png"><img height="694" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/07/25/japinsanity1_0.png" width="600" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: left;">What is so confounding about this situation is that after 25 years, one would expect Japanese&nbsp;leadership to eventually recognize that they are following Einstein&rsquo;s definition of insanity &ndash;&nbsp;doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. <strong>Equally insane,&nbsp;leaders in the rest of the developed world are following Japan over the same economic cliff.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">Throughout this period of economic stagnation and deflation, Japan has increasingly&nbsp;emphasized its desire to generate inflation. The ulterior motive behind such a strategy is hidden&nbsp;in plain sight. If the value of a currency, in this case the Yen, is eroded by rising inflation debtors&nbsp;are able to pay back that debt with Yen that is worth less than it used to be. For example, if&nbsp;Japan were somehow able to generate 4% inflation for 5 years, the compounded effect of that&nbsp;inflation would serve to devalue the currency by roughly 22%. Therefore, debtors <em>(the&nbsp;Japanese government)</em> could repay outstanding debt in five years at what is a 22% discount to&nbsp;its current value. <strong>Said more bluntly, they can essentially default on 22% of their debt.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>What we know about Japan is that their debt load has long since surpassed the country&rsquo;s&nbsp;ability to repay it in conventional terms.</strong> Given that it would allow them to erase some percentage of the value of the debt outstanding, their desperation to generate inflation&nbsp;should not be underestimated. One way or another, this is the reality Japan hopes to achieve.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>QE</strong></span></h3> <p style="text-align: left;">Quantitative easing (QE) is one of the primary monetary policy approaches central banks have<br />taken since the 2008 financial crisis. With short term interest rates pegged at zero, and thus&nbsp;the traditional level of monetary policy at its effective limit, the U.S. Federal Reserve and many&nbsp;other central banks conjured new money from the printing presses and began buying sovereign&nbsp;debt and, in some cases mortgages, corporate bonds and even equities. This approach to&nbsp;increasing the money supply achieved central bank objectives of levitating stocks and other&nbsp;asset markets, in the hope that newly created <em>&ldquo;wealth&rdquo;</em> would trickle down. <strong>The mission has&nbsp;yet to produce the promised <em>&ldquo;escape velocity&rdquo;</em> for economic growth or higher inflation.</strong> The&nbsp;wealthy, who own most of the world&rsquo;s financial assets, have seen their wealth expand rapidly.&nbsp;<strong>However, for most of the working population, the outcome has been economic struggle,&nbsp;further widening of the wealth gap and a deepening sense of discontentment.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>The Nuclear Option</strong></span></h3> <p style="text-align: left;">In 2014, as the verdict on the efficacy of QE became increasingly clear, European and Japanese&nbsp;central bankers went back to the drawing board. They decided that if the wealth effect of&nbsp;boosting financial markets would not deliver the desired consumption to drive economic&nbsp;growth then surely negative interest rates would do the trick. <strong>Unfortunately, the central&nbsp;bankers appear to have forgotten that there are both borrowers and lenders who are affected&nbsp;by the level of interest rates.</strong> Not only have negative interest rates failed to advance economic&nbsp;growth, the strategy appears to have eroded public confidence in the institution of central&nbsp;banking and financially damaging the balance sheets of many banks.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">In recent weeks, former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Ben Bernanke paid a visit to Tokyo and&nbsp;met with a variety of Japanese leaders including Bank of Japan chairman Haruhiko Kuroda. In&nbsp;those meetings, Bernanke supposedly offered counsel to the Japanese about how they might,&nbsp;once and for all, break the deflationary shackles that enslave their economy using <em>&ldquo;helicopter&nbsp;money&rdquo;</em> <em>(the termed was coined by Milton Freidman and made popular in 2002 by Ben&nbsp;</em><em>Bernanke).</em> <strong>What Bernanke proposes, is for Japan to effectively take one of the few remaining&nbsp;steps toward <em>&ldquo;all?in&rdquo;</em> or the economic policy equivalent of a<em> &ldquo;nuclear option&rdquo;.</em></strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">The Japanese government appears to be leading the charge in the next chapter of stranger than&nbsp;fiction economic policy through some form of &ldquo;helicopter money&rdquo;. As opposed to the prior&nbsp;methods of QE, this new approach marries monetary policy with fiscal policy by putting printed&nbsp;currency into the hands of the Ministry of Finance <em>(MOF or Japan&rsquo;s Treasury department)</em> for&nbsp;direct distribution through a fiscal policy program. Such a program may be infrastructure&nbsp;spending or it may simply be a direct deposit into the bank accounts of public citizens.&nbsp;<strong>Regardless of its use, the public debt would rise further.</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">According to the meeting notes shared with the media Bernanke recommended that the MoF&nbsp;issue <em>&ldquo;perpetual bonds&rdquo;</em>, or bonds which have no maturity date. The Bank of Japan <em>(BOJ or&nbsp;Japan&rsquo;s Central Bank)</em> would essentially print Yen to buy the perpetual bonds and further&nbsp;expand their already bloated balance sheet. The new money for those bonds would go to the&nbsp;MoF for distribution in some form through a fiscal policy measure. The BoJ receives the bonds,&nbsp;the MoF gets the newly printed money and the citizens of Japan would receive a stimulus&nbsp;package that will deliver inflation and a real economic recovery. Sounds like a win?win, huh?</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Temporarily, yes. Economic activity will increase and inflation may rise.&nbsp;Let us suppose that the decision is to distribute the newly printed currency from the sale of the&nbsp;perpetual bonds directly into the hands of the Japanese people. Further let us suppose every&nbsp;dollar of that money is spent. In such a circumstance, economic activity will pick up sharply.&nbsp;<strong>However, eventually the money will run out, spending falters and economic stagnation and&nbsp;decline will resume.</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">At this point, Japan has the original accumulated debt plus the new debt created through&nbsp;perpetual bonds and an economy that did not respond organically to this new policy measure.&nbsp;<strong>Naturally the familiar response from policymakers is likely to be <em>&ldquo;we just didn&rsquo;t do enough&rdquo;.</em> </strong>It is&nbsp;then highly probable another round of helicopter money will be issued producing another short&nbsp;lived spurt of economic activity. As with previous policy efforts, this pattern likely repeats over&nbsp;and over again. Each time, however, the amount of money printed and perpetual bonds&nbsp;issued must be greater than the prior attempts. Otherwise, economic growth will not occur, it&nbsp;will, at best, only match that of the prior experience.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Eventually, due to the mountain of money going directly in to the economy, inflation will&nbsp;emerge. <strong>However, the greater likelihood is not that inflation emerges, but that it actually&nbsp;explodes resulting in a complete annihilation of the currency and the Japanese economy.</strong> In&nbsp;hypothetical terms as described here, the outcome would be devastating. Unlike prior&nbsp;methods of QE which can be halted and even reversed, helicopter money demands ever<br />increasing amounts to achieve the desired growth and inflation. Once started, it will be very<br />difficult to stop as economic activity would stumble.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><em>The following paragraph came from <a href="http://nebula.wsimg.com/3ff756ba1dde08db53088edcf386e7d4?AccessKeyId=372BE07F51497C9CD088&amp;disposition=0&amp;alloworigin=1">&ldquo;Part Deux &ndash; Shorting the Federal Reserve&rdquo;</a>. In the article&nbsp;</em><em>we described how the French resorted to a helicopter money to help jump start a stagnant&nbsp;</em><em>economy.</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #800000;"><em>&ldquo;With each new issue came increased trade and a stronger economy. The problem was the&nbsp;activity wasn&rsquo;t based on anything but new money. As such, it had very little staying power and&nbsp;the positive benefits quickly eroded. Businesses were handcuffed. They found it hard to make&nbsp;any decisions in fear the currency would continue to drop in value. Prices continued to rise.&nbsp;Speculation and hoarding were becoming the primary drivers of the economy. &lsquo;Commerce was&nbsp;dead; betting took its place.&rsquo; With higher prices, employees were laid off as merchants&nbsp;struggled to cover increasing costs&rdquo;.</em></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="color: #800000;"><em>The French money printing exercise ultimately led to economic ruin and was a leading factor&nbsp;fueling the French revolution.</em></span></p> </blockquote> <h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Summary</strong></span></h3> <p style="text-align: left;">Is it possible that Bernanke&rsquo;s helicopter money approach could work and finally help Japan&nbsp;escape deflation in conjunction with a healthy, organically growing economy? <strong>It has a&nbsp;probability that is certainly greater than zero, but given the continual misdiagnoses of the core&nbsp;problem, namely too much debt, that probability is not much above zero.</strong> There is a far greater&nbsp;likelihood of a multitude of other undesirable unintended consequences.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Of all the developed countries, Japan is in the worst condition economically.</strong> Most others,&nbsp;including the United States, are<strong> following the same path to insanity though</strong>. Unlike Japan, other&nbsp;countries may have time to implement policy changes that will allow them to<strong> avoid Japan&rsquo;s&nbsp;desperate circumstances.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="858" height="608" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_ktoki.jpg?1469652937" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/insanity-japan#comments Bank of Japan Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Central Banks default ETC Federal Reserve Global Economy Japan Monetary Policy Money Supply Quantitative Easing Real estate Reality recovery Sovereign Debt Treasury Department Volatility Yen Wed, 27 Jul 2016 23:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567461 at http://www.zerohedge.com Trump: "I Hope Russia Has All 33,000 Emails That Hillary Deleted" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/trump-i-hope-russia-has-all-33000-emails-hillary-deleted <p>In yet another statement that is certain to spark outrage among Democrats, moments ago Donald Trump said he hopes that Russian hackers accused of breaching the DNC have obtained the tens of thousands of emails that Hillary Clinton deleted from her private email server, and that they will release them. </p> <p>"If they hacked, they probably have her 33,000 emails. I hope they do," Trump told reporters on Wednesday at a press conference at his Miami-area hotel, adding that "I wish I had that power. I'd love to have that power" to orchestrate the alleged email hack and leak. </p> <p>"They probably have her 33,000 emails that she lost and deleted. You'd see some beauties, so we'll see."</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">VIDEO: Trump: "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing..." <a href="https://t.co/NEGclzLXtP">https://t.co/NEGclzLXtP</a></p> <p>— Bradd Jaffy (@BraddJaffy) <a href="https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/758317778986074112">July 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>He went on to address Russia directly: ""Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 [Clinton] emails that are missing," Trump said at a press conference. "I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. Let's see if that happens. That'll be nice."</p> <p>He continued: "Russia has no respect for our country. And that's why, if it is Russia, nobody even knows it's Russia, it was probably China. ... It shows how weak we are. It shows how disrespected we are."</p> <p>Moments ago, he emphasized his position, saying on twitter if Russia has Hillary's emails, it should share them with the FBI.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">If Russia or any other country or person has Hillary Clinton's 33,000 illegally deleted emails, perhaps they should share them with the FBI!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/758335147183788032">July 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <p>He also said that the Russia-DNC hacking allegations are a "total deflection" from the scandal plaguing the Democratic party. He also slammed the DNC for what was seen as conspiring against Sanders to ensure that Clinton won the Democratic nomination. "I'm not gonna tell Putin what to do. Why should I tell Putin what to do?" Trump said. "It's not even about Russia or China or whoever it is that's doing the hacking. It's about the things they said in those emails. They were terrible things."</p> <p>He also accused Clinton of being in on the conspiracy. "Believe me, as sure as you're sitting there, Hillary Clinton knew about it," Trump said. "She knew everything. Debbie Wasserman Schultz could not breathe without speaking and getting approval from Hillary Clinton."</p> <p>He then repeated what he has said previously, namely that "I have nothing to do with Russia."</p> <p>Trump made it clear that there would most likely never be any damning revelations into his own email usage as he "almost never sends emails" as he is just not a believer in the medium.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Trump: "I'm just not a believer in email" <a href="https://t.co/AXMrYMSB9N">https://t.co/AXMrYMSB9N</a></p> <p>— NBC News (@NBCNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/758324852411412480">July 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Finally, when responding to a question whether he'd threat Putin as an adversary or an ally, he said he would rather be friendly with Russia so "we could knock out ISIS with other people. Wouldn't it be nice if we got along with Russia"</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Trump responds to question asking whether he'd treat Putin as an adversary or ally: <a href="https://t.co/81lORsHIEG">https://t.co/81lORsHIEG</a></p> <p>— NBC News (@NBCNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/758318544085917696">July 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, released a statement after the press conference that discouraged Russian involvement in a US election.</p> <p>"The FBI will get to the bottom of who is behind the hacking," Pence said in the statement. "If it is Russia and they are interfering in our elections, I can assure you both parties and the United States government will ensure there are serious consequences."</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="703" height="393" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trump%20speaking.jpg?1469633744" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/trump-i-hope-russia-has-all-33000-emails-hillary-deleted#comments China Donald Trump FBI Indiana NBC Nomination Twitter Twitter Wed, 27 Jul 2016 23:21:50 +0000 Tyler Durden 567415 at http://www.zerohedge.com Why I'm Supporting The "Demonic Creature That Emerged From The Depths Of Hell" In This Year's Election http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/why-im-supporting-demonic-creature-emerged-depths-hell-years-election <p><a href="https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/why-im-supporting-the-demonic-creature-that-emerged-from-the-depths-of-hell-in-this-years-presidential-election#.V5fPoR506d8.twitter"><em>Submitted by Gavin Speiller via McSweeneys.net,</em></a></p> <div class="articleBody"> <p><strong>I believe this year&rsquo;s election is the most important of our lifetime. </strong>The next President of the United States will be making decisions that will chart our nation&rsquo;s course for the next century. We need a strong, principled leader who is ready to shake up Washington. <strong><em>That&rsquo;s why I&rsquo;ll be voting for The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell.</em></strong></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>I&rsquo;m just as surprised as you are.</strong></span> A few months back when the ground in front of the White House split open, flames shot out and from that emerged a giant, winged demon creature vowing to win the presidential election and bring about &ldquo;an age of darkness and suffering that will cover the land for all of eternity,&rdquo; I was just as skeptical as everyone else. Who was this guy with zero political experience who thought he could just waltz through a giant chasm of fire and run for president? None of the pundits took him seriously, but here we are just a couple of months later and he&rsquo;s polling over 45% nationally. <strong>The truth is, the more I listen to the demon creature talk, the more his words resonate with me.</strong></p> <p>Now I imagine you&rsquo;re making the same face that all liberals make when someone tells you they&rsquo;re voting for The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell. That dismissive, &ldquo;Are you for real?&rdquo; smirk. Yes, I am for real and there are millions of Americans just like me. We like that the guy isn&rsquo;t a politician! Thanks to his ability to retreat into the Earth&rsquo;s core and emerge with large amounts of gold he&rsquo;s able to self-fund his campaign. <strong>He&rsquo;s not beholden to wealthy donors or special interest groups. He speaks his mind!</strong> Like when he says, &ldquo;The Earth will be scorched and the rivers shall run with blood!&rdquo; That might sound extreme, but after decades of seeing jobs being shipped overseas to places like, China, Mexico and the Philippines there are plenty of Americans who are angry and frustrated. We&rsquo;re ready to watch the Earth burn if it means he can actually get something done.</p> <p><strong>Some say The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell comes off as aggressive, rude, and bullying.</strong> He especially came under scrutiny during the second debate when, in response to the female moderator pressing him for details on a tax plan, he ate her alive. Hey guess what? That&rsquo;s politics. Those debates get pretty rough and I like that my candidate stood up for himself and didn&rsquo;t get pushed around. His opponents are now trying to use that moment to paint him as some sort of misogynist. As if consuming her flesh had more to do with her being a woman than it did the mainstream media&rsquo;s unfair coverage of his campaign. And yes, I have heard the other things he&rsquo;s said about women. I&rsquo;m aware that he commonly refers to them as, &ldquo;flesh vessels for my evil spawn.&rdquo; What can I say?<strong> The guy isn&rsquo;t politically correct. No doubt about it, The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell is going to ruffle some feathers.</strong></p> <p><strong>Look, I&rsquo;m willing to admit that he doesn&rsquo;t appear &ldquo;presidential.&rdquo;</strong> You&rsquo;re probably wondering how a guy who is on record as saying, &ldquo;The nations of the world will bow to me as master and I will feast on their hearts&rdquo; will be able to deal with other world leaders. You got me. He&rsquo;s not polished. He&rsquo;s in the middle of a tough election right now but I&rsquo;ve gotta believe that once in office, The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell will begin to behave in a more presidential manner. However, if he does get a bit riled up every now and then can you blame him? Just look at some of the things that his opponents and the media have been saying lately:</p> <ul> <li>&ldquo;He&rsquo;s clearly evil. I mean, he says that he&rsquo;s evil. Those are actually his own words.&rdquo;</li> </ul> <ul> <li>&ldquo;He shouldn&rsquo;t be allowed to run. He&rsquo;s not an American. He&rsquo;s not even a human.&rdquo;</li> </ul> <ul> <li>&ldquo;He&rsquo;s eaten multiple people on live television.&rdquo;</li> </ul> <p><strong>When you consider that he&rsquo;s been fighting against that level of slander, I think it&rsquo;s understandable if he gets a little hot under the collar and vomits blood onto a reporter once in awhile.</strong> Listen: I know a lot of you think I&rsquo;m stupid. How could anyone possibly want our next president to be The Demonic Creature That Emerged From the Depths of Hell? <em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Well, the wonderful thing about America is that no matter how stupid you think I am, my vote counts just as much as yours.</strong></span></em></p> </div> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="274" height="142" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_trumpmonster.jpg?1469650634" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/why-im-supporting-demonic-creature-emerged-depths-hell-years-election#comments China Mexico None White House Wed, 27 Jul 2016 23:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567452 at http://www.zerohedge.com 2016 Election Decision Is "Cholera Or Gonorrhea"; Julian Assange "Would Prefer Neither" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/2016-election-decision-cholera-or-gonorrhea-julian-assange-would-prefer-neither <p>Julian Assange sat down with Democracy Now to discuss Wikileaks&rsquo; recent release of the DNC leak emails and his perspective on the looming election.</p> <p>For WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, choosing between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is like choosing between two ugly diseases:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&quot;Well, you&rsquo;re asking me, do I prefer cholera or gonorrhea?&quot; </strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>&quot;Personally, I would prefer neither.&quot;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p><iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/f_3Rv-M1nIU" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>Assange notes that the prospect of a Trump presidency is &quot;completely unpredictable&quot; but the Wikileaks&#39; founder believes one thing is inevitable...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Look, I think - you know, we know how politics works in the United States.&quot;</p> <p><em><strong>&quot;Whoever, whatever political party gets into government is going to merge with the bureaucracy pretty damn fast. It will be in a position where it has some levers in its hand. And so, as a result, corporate lobbyists will move in to help control those levers. So it doesn&#39;t make much difference in the end.&quot;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Here is the full 15 minute interview...</p> <p><iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/axuJfX3cO9Q" width="560"></iframe></p> <p><a href="http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/07/27/interview-with-wikileaks-julian-assange-hillary-clinton-expands-the-overton-window-of-corruption/"><em>h/t Liberty Blitzkrieg&#39;s Mike Krieger</em></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="784" height="461" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160727_assange.jpg?1469639006" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/2016-election-decision-cholera-or-gonorrhea-julian-assange-would-prefer-neither#comments Donald Trump Wed, 27 Jul 2016 23:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567456 at http://www.zerohedge.com