http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/%2A%7CARCHIVE%7C%2A en Stocks Are On THE Line http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/stocks-are-line <p>Stocks are about to take THE line that has supported the rally ?going back to 2012.</p> <p><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2014/09/Marketing%2010-1-14.png" style="width: 460px; height: 284px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The amount of bearish issues the markets are facing is almost staggering.</p> <p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Corporate debt is back to 2007 PEAK levels.</p> <p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Stock buybacks are back to 2007 PEAK levels.</p> <p>3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Investor bullishness is back to 2007 PEAK levels.</p> <p>4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Margin debt (money borrowed to buy stocks) is at 2007 PEAK levels.</p> <p>5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The leveraged loan market is flashing major warnings.</p> <p>6.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Corporate insiders are dumping shares at a pace not seen since the TECH BUBBLE TOP</p> <p>7.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Numerous investment legends have warned of a coming crash.</p> <p>8.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Investor complacency is at a record LOW.</p> <p>9.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The Fed has confirmed QE is ending this month, so the juice is cut off for now.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Economically speaking&hellip;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>1)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Japan is back in recession</p> <p>2)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; China is growing at 3.5% at best</p> <p>3)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Germany is contracting.</p> <p>4)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Italy is in its third recession since 2008.</p> <p>5)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; France has registered ZERO growth for six months.</p> <p>6)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The US economic data is all bogus bean counting based on inventory and accounting gimmicks (real GDP is <em>negative)</em>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All in all over 50% of world GDP is negative or flat-lining.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We have the very makings of a Crash. If stocks breakdown from this line and cannot reclaim it, we could easily wipe out all of the gains going back to 2013.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Are you ready?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This concludes this article. If you&rsquo;re looking for the means of protecting your portfolio from the coming collapse, you can pick up a FREE investment report titled <strong><em>Protect Your Portfolio</em></strong> at <a href="http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html">http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html</a>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This report outlines a number of strategies you can implement to prepare yourself and your loved ones from the coming market carnage.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Best Regards</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Phoenix Capital Research</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/stocks-are-line#comments China France Germany Italy Japan Recession Wed, 01 Oct 2014 15:24:23 +0000 Phoenix Capital Research 495055 at http://www.zerohedge.com How Bad Could It Get? US Government Order Of 160,000 HazMat Suits Gives A Clue http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/how-bad-could-it-get-us-government-order-160000-hazmat-suits-gives-clue <p>Now that Ebola is officially in the US on an uncontrolled basis, the two questions on everyone's lips are i) who will get sick next and ii) how bad could it get? </p> <p>We don't know the answer to question #1 just yet, but when it comes to the second one, a press release three weeks ago from Lakeland Industries, a manufacturer and seller of a "comprehensive line of safety garments and accessories for the industrial protective clothing market" may provide some insight into just how bad the US State Department thinks it may get. Because when the US government buys 160,000 hazmat suits specifically designed against Ebola, just ahead of the worst Ebola epidemic in history making US landfall, one wonders: <strong>what do they know the we don't?</strong></p> <p>From <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lakeland-industries-announces-global-availability-of-hazmat-suits-for-ebola-274892141.html">Lakeland Industries</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Lakeland Industries, Inc. (LAKE), a leading global manufacturer of industrial protective clothing for industry, municipalities, healthcare and to first responders on the federal, state and local levels, <strong>today announced the global availability of its protective apparel for use in handling the Ebola virus.</strong>&nbsp; In response to the increasing demand for specialty protective suits to be worm by healthcare workers and others being exposed to Ebola, Lakeland is increasing its manufacturing capacity for these garments and includes proprietary processes for specialized seam sealing, a far superior technology for protecting against viral hazards than non-sealed products. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"<strong>Lakeland stands ready to join the fight against the spread of Ebola</strong>," said Christopher J. Ryan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lakeland Industries.&nbsp; "We understand the difficulty of getting appropriate products through a procurement system that in times of crisis favors availability over specification, and we hope our added capacity will help alleviate that problem.&nbsp; <strong>With the U.S. State Department alone putting out a bid for 160,000 suits, we encourage all protective apparel companies to increase their manufacturing capacity for sealed seam garments so that our industry can do its part in addressing this threat to global health</strong>.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, purchases by the US government are bought and paid for by taxpayers. For everyone else <a href="http://www.dotmed.com/listing/hazardous-materials/lakeland-industries/80640-l/class-a-hazmat-suit/1715976">there's $1200 mail-order delivery</a>:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/Lakeland_1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/Lakeland_1_0.jpg" width="600" height="545" /></a></p> <p>That said... 160,000 HazMats for a disease that is supposedly not airborne? Mmmk.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="320" height="400" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/lakeland%20teaser.jpg?1412176650" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/how-bad-could-it-get-us-government-order-160000-hazmat-suits-gives-clue#comments Wed, 01 Oct 2014 15:17:21 +0000 Tyler Durden 495054 at http://www.zerohedge.com High-Yield Credit Suffers Biggest Quarterly Loss Worldwide Since 2011 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/high-yield-credit-suffers-biggest-quarterly-loss-worldwide-2011 <p>Junk bond investors suffered their <strong>biggest quarterly loss since 2011</strong>, losing 1.7% in Q3 pushing yields up to one-year highs (despite Treasury yield compression). Managers, knowing full well the underlying liquidity to handle any further selling is not there are out en masse explaining that "high-yield should bounce back in the fourth quarter," relying on the fact that 'historical' defaults are still low and the economy is recovering (as if that's not priced in already). The <strong>worst hit segment of the junk market is CCCs and below - at 22-month lows</strong> - as Bernanke and Yellen forced investors ever further along the risk spectrum for yield. Of course, equity markets (Russell 2000 aside) have ignored much of this decline until recently, but the <strong>plunge in leveraged loan issuance</strong> suggests all that cheap-buy-back-funding is rapidly disappearing (even for the best credits and biggest names).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Bloomberg reports,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>High-yield bond investors worldwide have been hurt by the biggest quarterly losses in three years</strong> as geopolitical tensions and the threat of a U.S. interest-rate increase curbed risk appetite.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Speculative-grade notes forfeited 1.7% in the last three months, the most since the third quarter of 2011, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data; <strong>the average yield on the debt climbed to a one-year high of 6.26%</strong> on Sept. 29, the data show</p> </blockquote> <p>The junkiest of the junk was worst hit... after being driven to that insanity by The Fed...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_HY2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_HY2_0.jpg" width="600" height="431" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And stocks are starting to catch on...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops2_0.jpg" width="600" height="314" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And issuance is plunging...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_HY1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_HY1_0.jpg" width="600" height="165" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>removing the buyback-funding that "fundamentals" need to engineer reality for stocks.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Source: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="960" height="502" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141001_oops2.jpg?1412174772" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/high-yield-credit-suffers-biggest-quarterly-loss-worldwide-2011#comments Bank of America Bank of America Bond Equity Markets Merrill Merrill Lynch Reality Russell 2000 Wed, 01 Oct 2014 14:52:02 +0000 Tyler Durden 495053 at http://www.zerohedge.com Bill Gross Gets A "Mile High Welcome" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/bill-gross-gets-mile-high-welcome <p>No, really.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Bill Gross receives a mile high welcome from Janus CEO Dick Weil and President Bruce Koepfgen. <a href="http://t.co/mMvTXimg9P">pic.twitter.com/mMvTXimg9P</a></p> <p>— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) <a href="https://twitter.com/JanusCapital/status/517313166707924992">October 1, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1024" height="1114" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/mile%20high.jpg?1412174017" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/bill-gross-gets-mile-high-welcome#comments Bill Gross Janus Capital Twitter Twitter Wed, 01 Oct 2014 14:30:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 495052 at http://www.zerohedge.com Japan Stunned After Biggest Ever, $617 Billion "Fat Finger" Trading Error Slams Stocks http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/japan-stunned-after-massive-617-billion-fat-finger-trading-error-slams-stocks <p>A few days ago, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/mystery-man-moving-japan-made-more-than-1-million-trades.html">Bloomberg had a fascinating profile of the person</a>, pardon degenerate Pachinko gambler, who goes under the name CIS, and who is the "<strong>mystery man who moves the Japanese market</strong>." In a nutshell, CIS, a momentum day trader and living proof of survivorship bias in finance (because for every CIS who has, <em>allegedly,</em> made it some 999,999 have failed) has amassed a fortune that he says now exceeds 16 billion yen after having traded 1.7 trillion yen in his career, generating an after tax profit of 6 billion yen in 2013 alone. Of course, the numbers are likely wildly fabricated for pageview purposes becuase as Bloomberg itself admits, "CIS didn’t offer a complete accounting of his investing returns and his wealth for this story, and some of his claims can’t be verified."</p> <p>That said, it is indeed the case that Japan has increasingly become a cartoon market in which while days can go by without a single trade taking place in its rigged bond market, where the BOJ has soaked up all the liquidity, when it comes to equities, it has become a free for all for "Mr. Watanabes" who have never taken finance, accounting or economics, but who know all about heatmaps and chasing momentum, and as a result, in a rising market/tide environment, have all grown ridiculously rich. </p> <p>The problem, of course, is that what some may call a market is anything but, and has become a fragile playground for a few technicians who move massive sums of money from Point A to Point B, hoping to outsmart the few remaining others, while in the process earning the rents that the BOJ is eagerly handing out by injecting liquidity at a pace that dwarfs what the Fed did for the past 2 years. The other problem is that it is a merely of time before everything crashes into a pile of smoldering rubble thanks to the unprecedented fragility that is now embedded in every market, although most likely in Japan first. </p> <p>Which leads us to what just happened in Japan when <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-01/oops-possible-617-billion-trading-error-in-japan.html">as Bloomberg reports</a>, <strong>stock orders amounting to a whopping $617 billion (yes Bilion with a B) or more than the size of Sweden’s economy, were canceled in Japan earlier today, for reasons unknown although the early culprit is that this was one of the biggest trading errors of all time.</strong></p> <p>Of course, since this trade was noted, and DKed, one can assume that a major whale was on the losing end of the trade: recall that this is precisely what happened to Goldman time and again, when some errant algo caused the firm to lose millions on several occasions in 2012 and 2013.</p> <p><strong>There is one tiny difference: this time it was not Goldman, and the total amount was not a few paltry million but over half a trillion dollars!</strong></p> <p>From Bloomberg: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>At 9:25 a.m. Tokyo time, orders for shares in 42 companies totaling 67.78 trillion yen ($617 billion) were canceled, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Japan Securities Dealers Association. A representative at the organization wasn’t immediately available to comment.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The biggest order was for 1.96 billion shares of Toyota Motor Corp., or <strong>57 percent of outstanding shares at the world’s biggest carmaker, </strong>for 12.68 trillion yen through an off-exchange transaction. Toyota declined to comment. Other stocks with scrapped transactions included Honda Motor Co. (7267), Canon Inc., Sony Corp. and Nomura Holdings Inc.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Fat finger” trading mistakes occur periodically. In 2009, UBS AG mistakenly ordered 3 trillion yen of Capcom Co. convertible bonds. Still, today’s scrapped trades were of a different magnitude.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“I’ve never heard of orders this big being canceled before,” said</strong> Ayako Sera, a Tokyo-based market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd., which oversees about $474 billion in assets. “<strong>There must have been an error.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>While no harm’s been done because the orders were canceled, there should be an explanation to alleviate concerns, Sera said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“It’s not rocket science that there was a fat finger here, but it reopens the question about accountability,” </strong>said Gavin Parry, managing director at Hong Kong-based brokerage Parry International Trading Ltd.</p> </blockquote> <p>It may not be rocket science, but one wonders: <strong>just who has the potential to trade over half a trillion in market orders, let alone screw it up</strong>? Is it the Pachinko gambler... or the central bank itself screwing up its market orders? And just how much longer before such recurring incidents, whether in Japan or the US or Europe, force everyone to finally realize that the market is an HFT-rigged, central bank-manipulated and, now, completely broken casino.</p> <p>Actually, judging by retail participation in the recent "bull market"... </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/retail%20vs%20institutional.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/retail%20vs%20institutional_0.jpg" width="499" height="424" /></a></p> <p>... the answer is: it already has.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="214" height="163" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/fat%20finger.jpg?1412162703" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/japan-stunned-after-massive-617-billion-fat-finger-trading-error-slams-stocks#comments B+ Bond Japan Nomura Toyota Yen Wed, 01 Oct 2014 14:25:52 +0000 Tyler Durden 495042 at http://www.zerohedge.com ISM Biggest Miss Since January: Orders Tumble, Employment Slides, Backlogs Contract, Construction Spending Negative http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/ism-biggest-miss-january-orders-tumble-employment-slides-backlogs-contract-construct <p>So much for the string of near record ISM prints. Oh... and the recovery too.</p> <p>As we had been <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/how-worst-new-orders-number-6-months-became-highest-2014">warning all along looking at the unadjusted data </a>(because for some reason surveys need a seasonal adjustment), US manufacturing was actually far weaker than expected. And sure enough, moments ago the ISM confirmed what we had been saying all along when it reported that the headline PMI dropped fromm 59.0 to only 56.6 which was the biggest miss since January, with the all important New Orders tumbling from 66.7 to only 60.0 <em><strong>and the unadjusted print matching the lowest since March</strong></em>, Employment sliding from 58.1 to 54.6, and Backlogs dropping back into contraction from 52.5 to 47.0. So much for the subprime autoloan driven renaissance: it appears that whoever could buy a Government Motors car with a 550 FICO, already has. And now...what?</p> <p>Charted:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/20141001_ISM1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/20141001_ISM1_0.jpg" width="498" height="261" /></a></p> <p>The breakdown:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/ISM%20Sept.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/ISM%20Sept_0.jpg" width="500" height="484" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>From the report:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"The September PMI® registered 56.6 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from August’s reading of 59 percent, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing. The New Orders Index registered 60 percent, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from the 66.7 percent reading in August, indicating growth in new orders for the 16th consecutive month. The Production Index registered 64.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the August reading of 64.5 percent. The Employment Index grew for the 15th consecutive month, registering 54.6 percent, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points below the August reading of 58.1 percent. Inventories of raw materials registered 51.5 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the August reading of 52 percent, indicating growth in inventories for the second consecutive month. Comments from the panel reflect a generally positive business outlook, while noting some labor shortages and continuing concern over geopolitical unrest."</p> </blockquote> <p>The pereptually cheery cheery-picked, goalseeked respondents are still as cheerful as ever:</p> <ul> <li>"Business seems to be picking-up as fuel prices drop. More disposable income at the C store level where many of our products are sold." (Food, Beverage &amp; Tobacco Products)</li> <li>"Warehouse and multi-family construction seems to be continuing strong." (Fabricated Metal Products)</li> <li>"World political unrest is creating additional defense requirements." (Transportation Equipment)</li> <li>"We are seeing shipments up, year-over-year, in the 8 to10 percent range for last couple of months. This is good." (Apparel, Leather &amp; Allied Products)</li> <li>"Seen an increase in sales due to government fiscal year-end." (Computer &amp; Electronic Products)</li> <li>"Demand is pretty good overall. Freight continues to be a major issue." (Chemical Products)</li> <li>"Things are a bit slower than the first half." (Printing &amp; Related Support Activities)</li> <li>"Outlook is very good. Demand seems to be growing." (Paper Products)</li> <li>"Our search continues for good machinists and electrical engineers." (Machinery)</li> <li>"Overall, orders are at the strongest point this year." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)</li> </ul> <p>... someone didn't give them the memo, the same one where we warned that Non-Seasoanlly Adjusted New Orders were leading the way all along:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/ISM%20New%20Orders%20unadjusted.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/ISM%20New%20Orders%20unadjusted_0.jpg" width="500" height="318" /></a></p> <p>And in other news, US construction spending contracted 0.8%, its 2nd biggest drop in almost 2 years, drastically missing expectations of a 0.4% gain. July's gains were revised lower to +1.2% 9from +1.8%) and private non-residential construction fell 1.4% as residential construction also contracted.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_ISM2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_ISM2_0.jpg" width="502" height="266" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Don't worry though: the Fed has a whopping $10 billion left in its POMO goodie bag for the entire month of October (and then nothing) to make it all better. </p> <p><strong>Time to start pricing in the untaper yet?</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="876" height="557" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/ISM%20New%20Orders%20unadjusted.jpg?1412172748" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/ism-biggest-miss-january-orders-tumble-employment-slides-backlogs-contract-construct#comments Government Motors POMO POMO recovery Renaissance Wed, 01 Oct 2014 14:13:36 +0000 Tyler Durden 495051 at http://www.zerohedge.com Stocks & Treasury Yields Are Collapsing http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/stocks-treasury-yields-are-collapsing <p>Yesterday's late-day weakness in stocks is continuing as US equities open this morning led by a<strong> collapse in Dow Transports and further weakness in Russell 2000</strong>. Treasury yields are also plunging with <strong>10Y at 2.435%</strong> (<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-04/david-tepper-back-sees-beginning-end-bond-bubble">back below the oh-so-important Tepper "end of the bond bull" levels</a>). <strong>High-yield credit markets are extremely volatile this morning. </strong>USD weakness is helping commodities rally with gold and silver outperforming.<strong> VIX just hit 17.5<br /></strong></p> <p>Stocks are tanking on the week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops_0.jpg" width="600" height="585" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>and bond yields plunging...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops1_0.jpg" width="600" height="321" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Short-term, it appears stocks are playing catch down to credit once again...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops2_0.jpg" width="600" height="314" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>USD weakness is sparking buying in commodities</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops3.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_oops3_0.jpg" width="600" height="316" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1026" height="1001" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141001_oops.jpg?1412172101" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/stocks-treasury-yields-are-collapsing#comments Bond Russell 2000 Wed, 01 Oct 2014 14:01:57 +0000 Tyler Durden 495050 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Best And Worst Performing Assets In September, Q3 And 2014 YTD http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/best-and-worst-performing-assets-september-q3-and-2014-ytd <p>When it comes to asset returns, September, and the entire third quarter for that matter, belonged to Asia.</p> <p> Technically, it belonged to Asian central banks, because while the rest of the world generated weak returns in the past month, the two best performing asset classes were the Nikkei (+5.4%) and the Shanghai Composite (+6.8%), both of which soared on speculation that the local central banks would promptly conduct even more monetary easing. This was most obvious in the Nikkei where while in local currency terms the market is soaring, as is the one in Argentina and Venezuela, denominated in USD, the Nikkei is still down in 2014, performing worse than gold.</p> <p>In USD terms however, those long the Nikkei have lost in purchasing power everything they have gained in capital appreciation.</p> <p>On the other side, however, the biggest losers so far at least are clear: Corn, Silver, and Wheat. In terms of fiat-denominated assets, the Russian stock market is the worst performing in 2014, with Greece breathing down its next. </p> <p>Some more color from DB:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>September turned out to be a fairly weak month for most asset classes even if equities and fixed income are still generally in positive territory for the year. Indeed screening our usual monthly performance review charts, the Nikkei (+5.4%) and the Shanghai Composite (+6.8%) were the only standout performers in September. Japanese equities benefitted from a weaker JPY with the Dollar enjoying its best quarterly performance since Q2 2008. The strength.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Staying on equities, the S&amp;P 500 was down over 1% in September despite a landmark 2,000 crossing during the month. Across DM equities, the S&amp;P 500 (+8.3%) is still a relative outperformer against Stoxx 600 (+7.6%) and the FTSE 100 (+1.2%). Turning to EM, the MSCI EM index was down -7.4% during the month. Greece and Bovespa were the other key underperformers in equities. The former was impacted by renewed political uncertainties around Greece’s aid package plans whilst the latter saw a completed unwind of its outperformance in August as election polls suggested diminished hopes of leadership change in the country. Elsewhere the Heng Seng was down 6.9% in September to post its worst month since May 2012 as sell flows&nbsp; intensified on the back of the pro-democracy protests at the end of the month.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fixed income didn’t quite benefit from the broader risk off with Treasuries and Bunds down -0.6% and -0.2% on the month. Credit markets also had a bad month from a total return standpoint with HY underperforming IG across the board. Following a brief reprieve in August, US HY actually lost more in September (-2.6%) than it did in July (-1.7%) and went on to post its worst quarter since Q3 2011 when the USA was stripped off&nbsp; its AAA rating and European Sovereign were struggling. September was second worst month for EM bonds this year largely led by weakness in Latam whilst Asia outperformed on a relative basis. YTD Asian bonds have outperformed Latam and EEMEA bonds by around 400bps and 800bps respectively.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>And visually, September</strong>:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/Sept%20returns.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/Sept%20returns_0.jpg" width="600" height="305" /></a></p> <p><strong>Third Quarter</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/QTD%20returns%20USD.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/QTD%20returns%20USD_0.jpg" width="600" height="343" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>2014 YTD:</strong></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/YTD%20returns%20uSD_0.jpg" width="600" height="343" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/best-and-worst-performing-assets-september-q3-and-2014-ytd#comments Bovespa Central Banks fixed Greece LatAm Nikkei Purchasing Power Wed, 01 Oct 2014 13:50:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 495049 at http://www.zerohedge.com CDC Releases Q&A On Ebola In America As Rumors Swirl Of Second US Case http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/cdc-releases-qa-ebola-america-rumors-swirl-second-us-case <p>Dallas County Health Officials earlier noted <strong>at least one person who had been in contact with the first US ebola patient was also being tested for the deasdly virus</strong>. They subsequently backed off that statement (oddly). Governor Rick Perry will be holding a press conference later today to calm the public we are sure, but in the meantime, the <strong>CDC has issued a helpful Q&amp;A</strong> to ensure Americans continued to fly, spend, and consume at their leisure and don't worry about the plague...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Rumors conmtinue to swirl of a 2nd case...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_ebola1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_ebola1.jpg" width="586" height="504" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>More color on the second case...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Health officials are closely monitoring a possible second Ebola patient who had close contact with the first patient to be diagnosed in the U.S.</strong>, the director of Dallas County’s health department said Wednesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All who have been in close contact with the diagnosed patient are being monitored as a precaution, said Zachary Thompson, director of Dallas County Health and Human Services.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Let me be real frank to the Dallas County residents: The fact that we have one confirmed case, there may be another case that is a close associate with this particular patient,” he said. <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>“So this is real. There should be a concern, but it’s contained to the specific family members and close friends at this moment.”</strong></span></p> </blockquote> <p>And The CDC issues a Q&amp;A on Ebola in America... <a href="http://abc13.com/health/questions-and-answers-about-the-dallas-ebola-case/331868/"><em>(via AP)</em></a></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/10/20141001_ebola2.jpg" width="600" height="154" /></p> <p>U.S. health officials have warned for months that someone infected with Ebola could unknowingly carry the virus to this country, and there is word now that it has happened: A traveler in a Dallas hospital became the first patient diagnosed in the U.S.</p> <p>Texas health officials said there were no other suspected cases in the state, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention immediately sought to calm fears that one case would spread widely.</p> <p><strong>"Ebola can be scary. But there's all the difference in the world between the U.S. and parts of Africa where Ebola is spreading,"</strong> CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said, stressing that U.S. health workers know how to control the virus.</p> <p><strong>"There is no doubt in my mind that we will stop it here," </strong>he told a news conference in Atlanta on Tuesday.</p> <p>Some questions and answers about the case:</p> <p><strong>Q: Where did the traveler come from?</strong></p> <p>A: <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Liberia, the hardest-hit country in the West African epidemic. </span>The patient left on Sept. 19 and arrived in the U.S. on Sept. 20 to visit family. Frieden wouldn't release the man's nationality or other identifying information, and didn't know how he became infected.</p> <p><strong>Q: When did the patient get sick?</strong></p> <p>A: Last Wednesday, and he <span style="text-decoration: underline;">initially sought care two days later.</span> He was released but returned Sunday when his condition worsened and Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital discovered the West Africa connection, admitting him under strict isolation. Tests confirmed Ebola on Tuesday.</p> <p><strong>Q: How does Ebola spread?</strong></p> <p>A: Only through close contact with the bodily fluids of someone who has symptoms, such as fever, vomiting and diarrhea. People aren't contagious until symptoms begin. And Ebola cannot spread through the air.</p> <p><strong>Q: So who's at risk?</strong></p> <p>A: Texas health officials already have begun tracking down those close contacts, believed to be mostly the relatives the man stayed with. Officials will check them for symptoms every day for 21 days. Frieden said only about a handful of people are believed to have been exposed.</p> <p><strong>Q: Could Ebola have spread on the airplane?</strong></p> <p>A: No, Frieden said, because the man wasn't sick then. The CDC said there is <span style="text-decoration: underline;">no need to monitor anyone else on those flights and didn't reveal flight information</span>.</p> <p><strong>Q: Will the patient stay in Dallas?</strong></p> <p>A: Frieden said there's no need to transfer the man to one of those special isolation units that have gotten so much attention for treating four American aid workers who caught Ebola while volunteering in West Africa. Most hospitals can follow the necessary infection control for Ebola, Frieden said, and the Dallas hospital said it was "well prepared" to safely treat this newest case.</p> <p>As for those other patients, three have recovered; the fourth remains hospitalized in Atlanta.</p> <p><strong>Q: How will this patient be treated?</strong></p> <p>A: Good hydration and IV nutrition have proven to be key for those other patients. Frieden said the hospital was discussing experimental treatments. A Tekmira Pharmaceuticals drug called TKM-Ebola and blood transfusions from an Ebola survivor were given to one of the recently infected U.S. aid workers.</p> <p><strong>Q: Could there be more travelers with Ebola?</strong></p> <p>A: No one's ruling it out. <span style="text-decoration: underline;">People boarding planes in the outbreak zone are checked for fever, but that does not guarantee that an infected person won't get through</span>.</p> <p>Airlines are required to report any deaths on a flight or ill travelers meeting certain criteria to the CDC before arriving in the U.S. If a traveler is infectious or exhibiting symptoms during or after a flight, the CDC will conduct an investigation of exposed travelers and take any necessary public health action.</p> <p><strong>Q: What if I'm worried about exposure?</strong></p> <p>A: Call the CDC for more information at 800-CDC-INFO (800-232-4636).</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *<br />So continue about your business... nothing to see here...</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="586" height="504" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141001_ebola1.jpg?1412170062" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/cdc-releases-qa-ebola-america-rumors-swirl-second-us-case#comments Wed, 01 Oct 2014 13:28:05 +0000 Tyler Durden 495048 at http://www.zerohedge.com Ackman, Berkowitz Slammed After Fannie Mae Plunges 60% On Court Ruling http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/ackman-berkowitz-slammed-after-fannie-mae-plunges-60-court-ruling <p>It is not a good morning for Bill Ackman's Pershing Square or Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital, or the US government for that matter, of course, which happen to be the three largest investors in Fannie Mae:</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/20141001_FNMAHDS_0.jpg" width="600" height="478" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The reason: FNM stock, which at last check, was crashing by nearly 60%.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/20141001_FNMA.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/09/20141001_FNMA_0.jpg" width="600" height="555" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So why is FNM plunging? Perhaps a better question is why they soared as much as they did in the first place.&nbsp;</p> <p> For the answer we go to Bill Ackman and his jolly copycat groupies. As <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-05/ackman-says-fannie-mae-shares-could-be-worth-47.html">Bloomberg reminds us</a>, <strong>Ackman, speaking at the 19th annual Sohn Investment Conference in New York, <span style="text-decoration: underline;">said </span></strong><strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fannie Mae could be worth $23 to $47 a share over time</span>, </strong>where he referred to a 110-slide presentation on the mortgage companies.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>More:<strong><br /></strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Pershing Square has about 11 percent economic exposure to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares based on common stock outstanding, a stake first disclosed last year. While lawmakers are weighing methods to wind down the companies, Ackman said mortgage rates would jump without the government-sponsored enterprises.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“<strong>There is no viable alternative</strong>,” to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Ackman said today in a Bloomberg Television interview with Stephanie Ruhle after the Sohn presentation. “Preserving the 30-year prepayable fixed-rate mortgage -- it’s like the bedrock of the housing system -- is critical. </p> <p>We think the only way to do it is by preserving Fannie and Freddie.” </p> </blockquote> <p>$23 to $47... or zero. Because while there may be no viable alternative, Ackman forgot one key thing: his adversary is the US government, a place where making trillionaires out of billionaires is not exactly in fashion right now. And that is precisely what would have happened if the Ackmanites had gotten their way in litigation that would assure that private stakeholders would get all the benefits of the GSE bailout with none of the downside risk (because after all these were, are and always will be guaranteed by the US government). \</p> <p>Then this happened.</p> <p>As AP reports, late yesterday a federal judge on Tuesday ruled against investors who are trying to collect billions of dollars in profits of government-chartered mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The decision by U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth to dismiss the investors' lawsuits was a victory for the government. It was also a huge hit to the litigants case, and is the reason why as of right now, Pershing Square is worth a few hundred million less (and it will be worth far less if and when the SEC cracks down on Ackman's illegal purchase of Allergan calls).</p> <p><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/judge-rules-against-investors-govt-dispute-213715705--politics.html">More from AP</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"There can be no doubt" that the investors understood the risks involved in investments in closely regulated companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lamberth wrote, and therefore have no reasonable expectation of profiting.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>During the recent mortgage crisis, the government pumped $187 billion into the troubled companies, which have since recovered and now have quarterly profits running into the billions.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Recovering money for itself, the government is collecting a dividend amounting to nearly every dollar of the companies' net worth. That leaves nothing for private investors who had put money into the companies when they faced collapse.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Investors had hoped lawmakers or the courts would force the government to give up rights to the earnings. Among those suing the government are hedge fund firm Perry Capital LLC and mutual fund company Fairholme Capital Management LLC.</p> </blockquote> <p>And while we don't feel bad for billionaires Ackman, Perry, Fairholme et al, we do commisserate with all those piggybackers who thought that Ackman's 110 slides on the matter were enough. Clearly, they weren't.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1048" height="969" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/20141001_FNMA.jpg?1412168595" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-01/ackman-berkowitz-slammed-after-fannie-mae-plunges-60-court-ruling#comments Fannie Mae Freddie Mac None Pershing Square Wed, 01 Oct 2014 13:06:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 495047 at http://www.zerohedge.com