http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/Itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/2009/07/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/07/2009/2009/2009/07/2009/07/news/iran-releases-video-captured-us-drone en BLaCK FRiDaY 2017... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/black-friday-2017 <p><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/37793736341/in/dateposted-public/" title="BLACK FRIDAY 2017"><img src="https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4447/37793736341_16ba55972f_b.jpg" alt="BLACK FRIDAY 2017" width="1024" height="857" /></a></p> <script src="//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js"></script> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/black-friday-2017#comments Baseball Hall of Fame balloting Black Friday Education Politics Thu, 19 Oct 2017 14:39:40 +0000 williambanzai7 605628 at http://www.zerohedge.com A 52-"Weak" High For Stocks? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/52-weak-high-stocks <p><a href="http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/166565719680/a-52-weak-high-for-stocks"><em>Via Dana Lyons&#39; Tumblr,</em></a></p> <p><strong><em>While the S&amp;P 500 his on an impressive string of new highs, a number of them have come on questionable breadth.</em></strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak1.jpg"><img height="284" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak1.jpg" width="500" /></a></p> <p><strong>When it comes to analyzing the quality of a stock market rally, we are big on breadth, or the internals, of the market. </strong>The more participation there is on the part of all stocks, the better the foundation to support the rally. If the rally is reliant on only a relatively few large stocks, it only takes a few stocks breaking down to undermine the advance. On that basis, the quality of the post-August rally has been, for the most part, superb. The validity of that assessment over the past few weeks, however, has come into question due to an odd string of new highs.</p> <p>Specifically, the S&amp;P 500 has recorded 5 all-time highs over the past 10 days. Interestingly, 3 of those have occurred on negative NYSE breadth, i.e., more NYSE declining stocks than advancing stocks. If that seems unusual, it&rsquo;s because it is. Looking back in our database to 1965, we find only 3 other 2-week stretches containing at least 3 new highs occurring on negative breadth:</p> <ul> <li><strong><em>3/20/1995</em></strong></li> <li><strong><em>6/20/1997</em></strong></li> <li><strong><em>12/14/2010</em></strong></li> </ul> <p>The concern with these clusters of negative breadth new highs is that the rally participation may be starting to wane. Thus, despite the new highs in the average, the market may be getting more vulnerable.</p> <p>Looking back at the prior clusters, did the performance of the S&amp;P 500 bear out that concern? Well, the sample size is a minuscule 3 &ndash; but the evidence would clearly suggest <em>no</em>. We won&rsquo;t present the full performance table following those 3 precedents, but we&rsquo;ll say that 2 months later, the S&amp;P 500 was higher by at least 4.5% each time. Furthermore, the worst 6-month drawdown of any of the 3 events was a mere -2.4%.</p> <p>So, that puts some of the concern about weakening internals to rest &ndash; but, again, only based on 3 occurrences. We&rsquo;d prefer a larger sample size in order to place any real measure of confidence in the data. If we relax the parameters a bit and look at clusters of just 2 negative breadth new highs within a 10-day span, we come up with 14 unique occurrences in 52 years, prior to the current one.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak2.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 310px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>So does this larger sample size add validity to the concern about weakening internals? </strong>As the chart reveals, a number of the occurrences certainly took place in the vicinity of intermediate-term, or even cyclical, tops. But what about in aggregate? Is the signal a consistent enough warning to warrant our attention? Let&rsquo;s check out the full post-event performance history:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_weak3.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 370px;" /></a></p> <p>Overall, the S&amp;P 500&prime;s performance following these events is pretty solid, with slightly above average median returns over most time frames. However, it has been anything but consistent. <strong>There were, again, a handful of events, e.g., 1968, 1979, 1980, 1998, 1999, that preceded sizable drawdowns in the intermediate-term &ndash; or even full-on bear markets.</strong></p> <p>So, is there any distinguishing market characteristic that delineates the good episodes from the bad? And on which side does our present case fall?</p> <p>As you know, we are generally able to isolate a condition or two in these studies that has led to a consistent pattern of behavior in the market. This time, however, it was a struggle to find such a pattern. No matter which way we parsed the data, the results seemed to come up mixed.&nbsp;</p> <p>About the only pattern we identified, and a loose one at that, was that the index&rsquo;s short-term performance often foretold of its longer-term fate. For example, each of the 4 events that saw the S&amp;P 500 lower 1 week later were also down 3-6 months later. Besides that pseudo-trend, the results seemed to genuinely be of a random nature. Eventually, we stopped looking for a &ldquo;magic&rdquo; indicator delineating the good episodes from the bad, as our efforts began to head dangerously down the <em>data-mining</em> path.</p> <p><strong>So what&rsquo;s the bottom line here?</strong> This study is a difficult one to put much <em>stock </em>into, so to speak. Multiple S&amp;P 500 new highs occurring on negative NYSE breadth in a 2-week period have led to mixed results, though, more good than bad. Perhaps the most instructive thing we can say is that these events have <em>not </em>been a consistently accurate warning of weakening internals and a vulnerable market.</p> <p><strong>We certainly would not consider this development to be a bullish signal. However, if you want to find something to worry about when it come to the stock market, there are much better candidates than this one.</strong></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><em>This is a free look at the &ldquo;all-access&rdquo; versions of our charts and research that we post daily (among much more) on our new site, <a href="http://t.umblr.com/redirect?z=https%3A%2F%2Flyonssharepro.com%2F&amp;t=NWUzMDY2ZDA4ZTUwMjY3NzgwYzkzNTY4ZmNkNWVmOGI5YWMxOGEzYixBWFRGR1RrOQ%3D%3D&amp;b=t%3AiVABxSjy5YaHIczRO2xAuw&amp;p=http%3A%2F%2Fjlfmi.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F166532099330%2Fsmall-caps-seeing-historic-squeeze&amp;m=0" target="_blank">The Lyons Share.</a> TLS is currently running a 30th anniversary <a href="http://t.umblr.com/redirect?z=https%3A%2F%2Flyonssharepro.com%2Fregister%2F&amp;t=N2FjZjc2Y2I5OTJlNWVlODk0Njk1ZTA2OTNiMWRjZjE5ZGFkMmQ3OCxBWFRGR1RrOQ%3D%3D&amp;b=t%3AiVABxSjy5YaHIczRO2xAuw&amp;p=http%3A%2F%2Fjlfmi.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F166532099330%2Fsmall-caps-seeing-historic-squeeze&amp;m=0" target="_blank">1987 Crash Commemoration SALE</a>, offering a discount of 22.6%, or the equivalent of the Dow&rsquo;s 1-day drop 30 years ago. The SALE ends October 22 so considering the discounted cost and a potentially frothy market climate, there has never been a better time to reap the benefits of our risk-managed approach. Thanks for reading!</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="425" height="241" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171019_weak1.jpg?1508420925" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/52-weak-high-stocks#comments Business Dow 30 Economy Finance Money New York Stock Exchange S&P 500 S&P 500 Index Standard & Poor's Stock market Thu, 19 Oct 2017 14:35:33 +0000 Tyler Durden 605623 at http://www.zerohedge.com Papers Filed To Disbar James Comey Following "False Testimony To Congress" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/papers-filed-disbar-james-comey-following-false-testimony-congress <p>Ty Clevenger, the "crusading lawyer" who has been trying for months to get Hillary and several members of her campaign staff disbarred in every jurisdiction from Little Rock, Arkansas to New York, <strong>has now set his sights on a new target: Former FBI Director James Comey.&nbsp;</strong> According to the <a href="http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/oct/18/lawyer-files-have-comey-disbarred/">Washington Times</a>, Clevenger filed a bar grievance in New York this week accusing Comey of lying to Congress and destroying potential evidence in the Clinton email scandal, in a process that could end up costing him his law license.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Ty Clevenger filed the grievance in New York, where Mr. Comey was a former U.S. attorney and is licensed to practice law.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Mr. Clevenger said Mr. Comey’s testimony to Congress that he did not predetermine the outcome of the FBI’s probe into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is belied by revelations this week that he in fact started drafting an exoneration months before even speaking with Mrs. Clinton.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“Insofar as Mr. Comey gave materially false testimony to Congress, it appears that he violated Rules 1.0(w), 3.3(a)(1), and 8.4 of the New York Rules of Professional Conduct,”</strong> Mr. Clevenger wrote.</p> </blockquote> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/10/19/2017.10.19%20-%20Comey_0.JPG" alt="Comey" width="600" height="327" /></p> <p>Clevenger also asked to renew grievances in New York against former Attorney General Loretta Lynch, saying that Comey’s claim that she tried to pressure him to downplay the Clinton probe should subject her to scrutiny.</p> <p>As you may recall, Clevenger is also the lawyer who convinced Maryland judge Paul Harris Jr. to order the Maryland state bar to investigate former Hillary aides David Kendall, Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson for their efforts in allegedly helping Hillary "destroy evidence."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>A Maryland judge ordered the state bar to open an investigation Monday into the three lawyers who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to delete her private emails.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Circuit Judge Paul F. Harris Jr. said the complaints lodged against David E. Kendall, Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson were “egregious”</strong> and said the state bar couldn’t brush them aside by calling them “frivolous.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“There are allegations of destroying evidence,”</strong> Judge Harris said at a hearing Monday morning, where he said the state’s rules require the bar to conduct investigations no matter who raises the complaint, and can’t brush accusations aside.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“I just think this is a rather easy decision at this point,”</strong> he said.<strong> “The court is ordering bar counsel to investigate.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>So what say you?&nbsp; Is this all a waste of time or are the Clintons the only ones who can perpetually avoid punishment for their scandals?<strong><br /></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="858" height="467" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.10.19%20-%20Comey.JPG?1508418286" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/papers-filed-disbar-james-comey-following-false-testimony-congress#comments Clevenger Congress Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Dismissal of United States Attorneys controversy FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation Government Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton email controversy James Comey Law Politics Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections Testimony UN Court United States United States Department of Justice United States intelligence agencies Thu, 19 Oct 2017 14:18:12 +0000 Tyler Durden 605620 at http://www.zerohedge.com Stock Bulls-This has me biting my nails! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/stock-bulls-has-me-biting-my-nails <p><img src="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/man-biting-nails-274x300.jpg" width="250" height="274" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-39411" /></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">Earlier this week we sent this message to&nbsp;<a href="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/premium-bundle/" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #2ea3f2; outline: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">Premium</span></a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/sse/" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #2ea3f2; outline: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">Sector</span></a>&nbsp;Members and I wanted to share it with our viewership today.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">Below looks at the&nbsp;<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EBKX?ql=1&amp;p=^BKX" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #2ea3f2; outline: 0px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">Bank Index (BKX)</span></a>&nbsp;over the past 20-years and why the Power of the Pattern feels this could become a very important price point for the bulls.</p> <p><a href="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bank-index-hitting-resistance-has-me-biting-my-nails-oct-17.jpg" target="_blank" title="Stock Bulls-This has me biting my nails! chris kimble chart"><img src="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bank-index-hitting-resistance-has-me-biting-my-nails-oct-17-640x299.jpg" width="640" height="299" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter wp-image-39412 size-large" /></a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px; color: #0000ff;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE</span></span></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">As mentioned in the chart above, the Bank Index is testing the underside long-term rising channel (1) again. At the start of this year, the bank index hit the underside of rising channel (1) at (4) and banks then proceeded to trade sideways for 7-months.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">The rally in banks of late has the index testing the underside of channel (1) again at (5), which also could be a&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">2017 double top</span>, at the underside of the long-term channel.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">Stock bulls should get a little nervous should weakness start taking place at (5). This is a price point that bulls would not want to see selling start!</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">We now know what stock bulls don’t want to see, what would stock bulls like to see? Bank and broad market bulls want/need to see a breakout at (5), NOT selling pressure or a double top.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">We humbly feel what Banks do at this key price point, could impact portfolio construction going into the end of the year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; outline: 0px; color: #303030;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13.008px; line-height: inherit; font-family: &quot;Lucida Grande&quot;, &quot;Lucida Sans Unicode&quot;, sans-serif; color: #000000;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 0in; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 10pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; border: 1pt none windowtext;">Why do you see very few comments?&nbsp; Because the&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">Power of the Pattern&nbsp;</em>provides all you need to see what is taking place in an asset and determine the action to take</span></strong></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; 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margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 10pt; line-height: inherit; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="1568" height="732" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user182769/imageroot/bank-index-hitting-resistance-has-me-biting-my-nails-oct-17.jpg?1508421238" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/stock-bulls-has-me-biting-my-nails#comments Bank Index BKX Business Financial market Technical analysis Thu, 19 Oct 2017 13:54:00 +0000 kimblecharting 605624 at http://www.zerohedge.com If You Bought 30 Years Ago Today... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/if-you-bought-30-years-ago-today <p>30 year ago today, traders were having a bad day: the Dow, S&amp;P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, -20%, -11%, -9% and -10% respectively. The FTSE fell a further 12% the day after, reflecting the difficulties in fully reopening<br />the <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/the-great-storm-fascinating-pictures-reveal-damage-caused-by-deadly-storm-on-its-30th-anniversary-a3658531.html">market after the great storm a few days before</a>. The day would eventually become known as Black Monday. </p> <p>In a "bit of fun" Deutsche Bank's credit strategist, Jim Reid, decided to calculate where returns would be today had you bought various assets the morning after the crash. For this the credit analyst used his regular monthly template of assets, and notes that the most important decision to have made was whether to buy the S&amp;P 500 or the Nikkei back in October 1987. <strong>The former tops the charts and has returned +2123% (+10.9% pa) since this day and the latter is at the bottom of </strong><strong>the pile returning a meager +12% (+0.4% pa). </strong>These are local currency returns but even if you were dollar hedged, the Nikkei still only returns a relatively small +41% (+1.1% pa).</p> <p>Another interesting observation: outside of the Nikkei, the three bottom performers have been commodity based with the CRB index (+60%, +1.6% pa), Oil (+163%, +3.3% pa) and Gold (+166%, +3.3% pa). </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>This shows how difficult it is for commodities to keep up over time with income producing securities with compounded interest or dividend reinvestment. In fairness when we look at dollar hedged returns <strong>Greek equities do fall&nbsp; to the bottom of the pile at just +27% (+0.8% pa) given the huge depreciation in the Greek Drachma prior to the Euro</strong>. </p> </blockquote> <p>Considering the turmoil around the Euro Sovereign Crisis it’s impressive that <strong>Italian and Spanish Government bonds make the top 5 performers in local currency terms returning +1086% (+8.6% pa) and +1037% (+8.4% pa) respectively over the period. </strong>Obviously the Euro convergence story from very high starting yields and in later years ECB bond purchases have provided the impetus here. To repeat these returns over the next 30 years <strong>their respective yields would have to migrate towards -21%. </strong>Which after the next deflationary crisis, which will unleash even more NIRP and QE is not exactly unthinkable. </p> <p>In this context, <strong>for US Treasuries to repeat the +602% (+6.7%&nbsp; pa) returns out to 2047 we’d need to see -18% yields at the end of our journey. </strong>As Reid explains, <strong>"</strong>We’ve calculated this on what the returns would be if yields moved to that level tomorrow and were then stable for 30 years. A bit spurious but an illustration of how impossible it will be to get anywhere near these type of returns again."</p> <p>Meanwhile, US HY investors can claim to lead the way in fixed income returns though with a +1106% (+8.7% pa) return over the period. The DAX sneaks into the top 5 in dollar adjusted returns and pips Spanish and Italian debt as the DM mark appreciated and the Peseta and Lira depreciated in the following 12 years leading up to the introduction of the Euro. </p> <p>The table and chart show the full list of performers over the period, first in local currency terms...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/since%201987%201.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/since%201987%201_0.jpg" width="600" height="353" /></a></p> <p>... denominated in USD...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/since%201987%202.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/since%201987%202_0.jpg" width="600" height="345" /></a></p> <p>... and combined.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/returns%201987%203.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/returns%201987%203_0.jpg" width="600" height="552" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="640" height="377" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/since%201987%201.jpg?1508420161" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/if-you-bought-30-years-ago-today#comments Bond CRB CRB CRB Index DAX 30 Deflation Dow 30 Economic bubbles Economy Economy of the European Union Economy of the United States Euro European Central Bank Finance fixed FTSE 100 Greek drachma Hedge Investment Italian and Spanish government Jim Reid Mathematical finance Money Nikkei Nikkei 225 Rate of return S&P 500 Stock market crashes Thu, 19 Oct 2017 13:53:30 +0000 Tyler Durden 605622 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Bids Are In: Amazon Offered Up To $7 Billion In Tax Breaks ($140k Per Employee) For Second U.S. HQ http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/bids-are-amazon-offered-7-billion-tax-breaks-140k-employee-second-us-hq <p>For the past several months, cities all across the country have been competing for the opportunity to host Amazon's second headquarters which promises $5 billion in capital investment and 50,000 new jobs over a period of time.&nbsp; And now that the bids are in, we have the opportunity to review some of the staggering tax subsidies offered to one of Silicon Valley's biggest companies.</p> <p>New Jersey apparently 'wins' the prize for 'biggest tax cuts' after offering $7 billion in state and city tax credits, or roughly $140,000 per job promised by Amazon...which should be plenty to once again thrust Bezos to the top of the world's richest list. Per <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-amazon-com-headquarters/amazon-offered-billions-in-tax-breaks-for-second-u-s-headquarters-idUSKBN1CO1IP">Reuters</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>New Jersey proposed $7 billion in potential credits against state and city taxes if Amazon locates in Newark </strong>and sticks to hiring commitments, according to a Monday news release from the governor’s office.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Across the Hudson River,<strong> New York City made a proposal without incentives special for Amazon,</strong> though the state is expected to offer some, a spokesman for the city’s economic development corporation said on Wednesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And across the country, <strong>California is offering some $300 million in incentives over several years and other benefits, </strong>the governor said in an Oct. 11 letter to Amazon’s Chief Executive Jeff Bezos, published online by the Orange County Register.</p> </blockquote> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/10/19/2017.10.19%20-%20Amazon_0.JPG" alt="Amazon" width="600" height="358" /></p> <p>But, while dozens of cities and states have submitted proposals for Amazon's "HQ2", credit ratings and research company <strong>Moody’s has ranked Austin as the most likely to win based on its labor pool, costs of doing business and quality of life,</strong> among other criteria.</p> <p>That said, here are the 9 other cities that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-19/amazon-s-hq2-deadline-now-the-real-competition-begins">Bloomberg </a>says also have a good shot:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Atlanta:</strong></span> The southern U.S. city, <strong>home of Amazon delivery partner United Parcel Service Inc., is a major flight hub</strong>, and the greater metro area houses a dynamic population of almost 6 million, as well as the headquarters of major corporations like Coca-Cola Co. and Home Depot Inc. Still, Atlanta is a relatively suburban city, compared with the urban HQ1 of Seattle.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Boston:</strong></span>&nbsp; Several Amazon executives have already advocated putting HQ2 in Boston, due to its <strong>proximity to Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology</strong>; an airport with nonstop flights to Seattle and Washington D.C.; and a <strong>lower cost of living than some other large urban areas</strong>. Amazon has ties with Boston already, having purchased local robot maker Kiva Systems Inc. for $775 million in 2012. The city also won General Electric Co.’s 2015 new headquarters bid, and has provided more than $100 million in grants, property tax relief and programs for GE – though the city has said it won’t negotiate any incentives with Amazon until Boston makes it past the first round of the selection process.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Chicago</strong></span>:&nbsp; The Windy City ranks second in Anderson Economic Group’s analysis of 35 cities competing for the precious HQ2, focusing on its talent, diverse ecosystem and access to transportation in its bid. Just last month, Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner reauthorized the Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) tax-credit program, which provides special tax incentives to companies relocating to Illinois or expanding operations in the state when another state is actively competing, according to BNA. One issue? The city isn’t known as a center of technology.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Denver</strong></span>:&nbsp; Denver has a busy international airport and is surrounded by a highly educated workforce. It’s also home to a surge of millennials looking for high-tech and energy jobs in Colorado, and boasts an outdoorsy lifestyle that’s an easy fit for Amazon’s quality-of-life considerations. Colorado has also chosen eight sites that meet Amazon’s requirements for HQ2. Still, other cities are offering larger tax breaks than Denver.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Detroit</strong></span>:&nbsp; Detroit offers<strong> low rent and the potential for larger tax breaks</strong>, because the city and the state of Michigan are still trying to turn themselves around and diversify from manufacturing. Michigan is also home to three big universities that produce a broad pool of talent. According to Michigan State University, 70 percent of its engineering graduates remained in the state. Even so, Governor Rick Snyder has said he will not ask the state legislature to approve additional incentives just for Amazon, according to Crain's Detroit Business. The city’s mass transit system also isn’t on par with some other cities in the running, and Detroit has a smaller tech scene.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>New York:</strong></span>&nbsp; In its bid for HQ2, the Big Apple is pitching its<strong> diverse workforce, robust university ecosystem and access to advertising, fashion and other industries. </strong>Brooklyn is emerging as an attractive component of the bid, with its building boom and throngs of young residents. New York is so serious about HQ2 that Mayor Bill de Blasio had landmarks around the city, including the Empire State Building and One World Trade, lit up in "Amazon orange" on Wednesday night. (Neighboring Newark, New Jersey, is also jumping in to bid, offering practically the same workforce with $7 billion in potential tax credits.) The bid by the biggest U.S. city may be at a <strong>disadvantage because of limited space for construction and already-high housing costs.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/10/19/2017.10.19%20-%20New%20York_0.JPG" alt="NYC" width="600" height="385" /></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Pittsburgh</strong></span>:&nbsp; The city is home to a large labor force and well-respected research institutes like top AI and robotics university Carnegie Mellon. It’s also close to major distribution hubs and has an industrial manufacturing background that could be useful for Amazon’s warehousing projects. Yet it’s far from other major metro areas and tech hubs.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Toronto</strong></span>:&nbsp; <strong>Canada’s biggest city is already home to 800 Amazon employees</strong> and boasts a large population of computer science, engineering and artificial intelligence graduates and programs. Municipalities in the Toronto region have teamed up to increase their chances at scoring Amazon’s HQ2, and Ontario just announced a plan to boost STEM graduates, saying that it can offer talent at 30 percent less than other big tech jurisdictions. Yet going to Canada holds political risks: <strong>Moving integral operations and workforce from the U.S. may step up tension with President Donald Trump.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Washington</strong></span>:&nbsp; The U.S. capital city’s urban location, <strong>highly educated workforce and public transportation</strong> are top selling points for its HQ2 bid. Not to mention Jeff Bezos already has a strong presence there: <strong>the Amazon founder owns the Washington Post, and last year purchased the largest home in the city. </strong>Washington didn’t disclose what it may offer Amazon in financial incentives, but the district has been active in providing taxpayer dollars to corporations in the past, according to the Post. Cons include the city’s expensive housing market and limited space for building.</p> </blockquote> <p>And while most large companies employ an army of consultants to negotiate with state and local municipalities, tax incentives are so important to the Amazon business model that the company decided to hire it's own internal army.&nbsp; Per the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-has-honed-its-site-hunting-expertise-with-in-house-team-1508405401">Wall Street Journal</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>While Amazon is considering many factors such as the labor pool, cultural fit and access to airports and major highways, its emphasis on taking advantage of incentives is part of the retail giant’s culture of frugality.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Amazon’s approach differs from most other companies, which often rely on outside consulting firms to scout locations and negotiate tax incentive deals with state and local governments<strong>. Instead, Amazon in recent years has brought those services in-house and made them the responsibility of its economic development team, a sign of the company pouring resources into new, promising initiatives.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Amazon’s team is led by specialists who come from different parts of the economic development world. The group finds sites for new projects and negotiates tax breaks to help fuel Amazon’s rapid expansion, acting as liaisons with local and state governments.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Mike Grella, who worked at PwC before joining the web giant, joined Amazon as director of economic development in 2012. He was joined by Eric Murray, who had worked in-house on real estate and economic development at Lockheed Martin Corp. , in 2014, and Holly Sullivan, who worked on economic development for local governments in Maryland and Tennessee, in 2016. Mr. Grella leads economic development for the company’s cloud-services business, while Ms. Sullivan, also a director of economic development, is responsible for the rest of the company.</p> </blockquote> <p>Amazon has said it will announce a decision for its second campus, in addition to its Seattle headquarters, next year.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="771" height="424" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/Bezos_0.JPG?1508415320" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/bids-are-amazon-offered-7-billion-tax-breaks-140k-employee-second-us-hq#comments Amazon Amazon basin Amazon rainforest Amazon River Amazon.com Apple artificial intelligence Big Apple Business Business Carnegie Mellon Detroit Donald Trump E-commerce Economy of the United States General Electric Harvard University Housing Market Illinois Jeff Bezos Massachusetts Institute of Technology Michigan Michigan State University New York City Online music stores ratings Real estate Reuters southern U.S. state legislature Tax incentive Upper Amazon Wall Street Journal Washington D.C. World Trade Thu, 19 Oct 2017 13:35:16 +0000 Tyler Durden 605615 at http://www.zerohedge.com A Halting Development In The Global Equity Rally? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/halting-development-global-equity-rally <p><a href="http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/166544824980/a-halting-development-in-the-global-equity-rally"><em>Via Dana Lyons&#39; Tumblr,</em></a></p> <p><em><strong>A key barometer of worldwide developed markets is bumping up against 9-year highs.</strong></em></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_bump.jpg"><img height="274" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_bump.jpg" width="500" /></a></p> <p>While the U.S. stock rally is getting a lot of (deserved) attention here in the States, <strong>a perhaps underrated theme of 2017 has been the impressive improvement on the part of international markets. </strong>I say perhaps underrated because we certainly have been trumpeting the exploits of markets around the globe this year. Much of the noise has been made in various emerging markets worldwide, as we have noted in a long series of positive posts. However, developed markets have also come on of late to join in the good times.</p> <p>We&rsquo;ve highlighted this emergence in posts on <a href="http://t.umblr.com/redirect?z=https%3A%2F%2Flyonssharepro.com%2F2017%2F08%2Fspecial-report-germany-premium-unlocked%2F&amp;t=NzZiMDJkMmY0Zjg0MjgyZGY4NTFjZmJiOGIyODdlMDg2YjY2YWU5Yyw1M0N5cGpnWg%3D%3D&amp;b=t%3AiVABxSjy5YaHIczRO2xAuw&amp;p=http%3A%2F%2Fjlfmi.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F166544824980%2Fa-halting-development-in-the-global-equity-rally&amp;m=0" target="_blank">Germany</a>, <a href="http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/166501291045/japanese-nikkei-turns-weakness-into-strength" target="_blank">Japan</a> and others recently. Efforts in those countries have contributed to the recent strong performance of a key barometer of developed stock markets around the globe. The MSCI-EAFE (EAFE) Index represents developed countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. After a rough 2016, the EAFE has been on a tear this year, tacking on nearly 19%. That&rsquo;s good news and, perhaps, bad news for the index.</p> <p><strong>The good news is obviously that the index is in a strong, steady uptrend. The perhaps bad news is that the EAFE has been so strong of late that its rally has brought it to the area of its 2014 peak near the 2000 level.</strong> That area represents the high in the index for the past 9 years &ndash; and also an area of potential obstruction in the near-term.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_bump1.jpg"><img height="317" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_bump1.jpg" width="500" /></a></p> <p><strong>So will this 2000 area put a halt to the rally? In our view, it would actually be a welcomed development.</strong> The EAFE is on a torrid, nearly unabated, rally over the past 11 months. It could use a digestion or consolidation period to rest and regather fuel for an attempted breakout above this area. Such a digestion would increase the odds of a <em>sustainable</em> breakout once it does occur. Should the EAFE plow right through this area without even a pause, it runs the risk of a&nbsp;&ldquo;false breakout&rdquo; that eventually fails.</p> <p>The next obvious upside target above here would be the 2007 all-time high near 2400. Given the strength of the global equity rally, there is little reason to doubt that the index could attain that target in the intermediate to longer-term. A brief rest may do it some good before it embarks on that next journey, though.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><em>If you&rsquo;re interested in the &ldquo;all-access&rdquo; version of our charts and research, we invite you to check out our new site, <a href="http://t.umblr.com/redirect?z=https%3A%2F%2Flyonssharepro.com%2F&amp;t=NjU1MjI2ZWRkMzM5MzE0MDgwMGE4OWMzMjk5ODZiNmQzNmZlYTc1YyxiZXV6ZkJ2Ug%3D%3D&amp;b=t%3AiVABxSjy5YaHIczRO2xAuw&amp;p=http%3A%2F%2Fjlfmi.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F166501291045%2Fjapanese-nikkei-turns-weakness-into-strength&amp;m=0" target="_blank">The Lyons Share.</a> TLS is currently running a 30th anniversary <a href="http://t.umblr.com/redirect?z=https%3A%2F%2Flyonssharepro.com%2Fregister%2F&amp;t=MDI2Y2QwMjk1ODQ4OGI4ZWZmNWVjZTVmMTBjMmIwZGY4Y2Y5Mzk2ZCxiZXV6ZkJ2Ug%3D%3D&amp;b=t%3AiVABxSjy5YaHIczRO2xAuw&amp;p=http%3A%2F%2Fjlfmi.tumblr.com%2Fpost%2F166501291045%2Fjapanese-nikkei-turns-weakness-into-strength&amp;m=0" target="_blank">1987 Crash Commemoration SALE</a>, offering a discount of 22.6%, or the equivalent of the Dow&rsquo;s 1-day drop 30 years ago. The SALE ends October 22 so considering the discounted cost and a potentially frothy market climate, there has never been a better time to reap the benefits of our risk-managed approach. Thanks for reading!</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="471" height="258" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171019_bump.jpg?1508417417" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/halting-development-global-equity-rally#comments Australasia Business Dow 30 Economy Far East Germany Index Japan MSCI MSCI EAFE MSCI World Thu, 19 Oct 2017 13:22:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 605618 at http://www.zerohedge.com Here Are The Reasons Why Another Government Shutdown Looms http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/tax-reform-health-care-battles-could-force-government-shutdown-later-year <p>It seems that it was just yesterday when the market was celebrating Trump&#39;s avoidance of a government shutdown due to an &quot;unprecedented&quot; bipartisan deal with Democrats, which left Republicans out in the cold. Well, things are once again back to normal.</p> <p>With fewer than 30 sessions left in the year and a heap of legislative priorities pressing on lawmakers&rsquo; agendas, it will be &ldquo;extraordinary&rdquo; if Republicans manage to pass tax reform this year, something Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin somewhat surprisingly admitted in an interview published yesterday. However, given President Donald Trump&rsquo;s penchant for burning bridges with lawmakers - perhaps best exemplified by his decision to make a deal with &ldquo;Chuck and Nancy&rdquo; only to go back on said deal by pushing a package of unrealistic demands, including funding for his border wall and more resources for immigration enforcement - Republicans&#39; ability to keep the government open past Dec. 8 is looking increasingly tenuous.</p> <p>As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-10-19/the-opioid-addict-on-the-wall-street-trading-floor">Bloomberg </a>points out, given the rancor within the Republican ranks, and a lack of trust among Democrats &ndash; fostered by the president&rsquo;s penchant for burning bridges - not only will the Trump White House be forced to punt on all of its major legislative priorities, but it may not be able to avert what would be the first federal government shutdown since 2013, as squabbling lawmakers <strong>struggle to find common ground on immigration reform, disaster-relief spending, taxes, Obamacare (subsidies) and preserving funding for Planned Parenthood.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.17trumpchuck.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/10/04/2017.10.17trumpchuck_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 224px;" /></a></p> <p>And now, after a year of trying &ndash; and failing &ndash; to legislate, the Republicans&rsquo; unfinished business is coming back to haunt them in the fourth quarter.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The year&rsquo;s most divisive fights in Congress are set to converge in a bitter partisan clash in December that could result in a US government shutdown.<strong> The unresolved battles - over a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, immigration, health-care subsidies, Planned Parenthood and storm relief - are hanging over talks on must-pass spending legislation to keep the government open after Dec. 8. </strong>The spending measure is at risk of becoming so weighted with controversial items that it collapses.<strong> &ldquo;The laundry list of things they want to put on it grows every day,&rdquo;</strong> said Jim Dyer, a former House Appropriations Committee Republican staff director.</p> </blockquote> <p>Even if Republicans could focus their energies on overcome their internal divisions and passing the budget, which is set for a vote today in the Senate after easily sailing through the more Trump-friendly House earlier this month, certain &ldquo;unbridgeable policy differences&rdquo; could make passing a budget difficult. With Republican Sen Thad Cochran away this week due to illness, it&rsquo;s anybody&rsquo;s guess whether the budget resolution being brought to a vote in the Senate today will pass. Even Trump has no idea.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Republicans are going for the big Budget approval today, first step toward massive tax cuts. I think we have the votes, but who knows?</p> <p>&mdash; Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/920966294035451904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Of course, since lawmakers are probably wary of the political backlash a shutdown might cause, the pressure to punt on the deal and agree to extend the current spending program for another year might be too difficult to resist, especially if no deal on tax reform is forthcoming.</p> <p>With Cochran off due to sickness, there is a slimmer margin of error to pass the controversial budget, which seeks a $1.5 trillion expansion of the budget deficit over the next 10 years. That said, with the late backing of Senator Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska along with Sen. McCain, there&rsquo;s a chance the bill could pass before the weekend. But then the next even more logistically fraught phase begins: passing tax reform, which is supposed to be hammered out during the reconciliation process for the budget bill.</p> <p>Being forced to punt could leave the Trump White House with no major legislative accomplishments this year.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Even without contentious issues, completing a trillion-dollar spending bill in time would be a tall order. The brewing battle could leave Republicans with no major accomplishments in President Donald Trump&rsquo;s first year after they couldn&rsquo;t find enough votes to repeal Obamacare. <strong>The more protracted the fight, the less time in 2017 to overhaul the tax code, the GOP&rsquo;s top priority.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Unbridgeable policy differences might result in a push to simply extend current spending authority through fiscal 2018. That would limit military spending to $549 billion, leaving out the big boost sought by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain of Arizona and other Republican defense hawks.</p> </blockquote> <p>And of course, there will always be certain intransigent lawmakers vowing to force a shutdown if they don&rsquo;t get what they want.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>McCain is among those threatening to take his year-end priorities to the mat. <strong>He said Wednesday that he won&rsquo;t support any temporary extension of government agency spending unless the defense caps are lifted. He said a government shutdown - for the first time since 2013 - is possible.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s always a risk every time we go through this cycle,&rdquo;</strong> he said. Democrats say a shutdown can be averted if Trump and congressional Republicans, including the conservative House Freedom Caucus, put aside unrealistic demands such as a ban on funds for Planned Parenthood or requiring any added hurricane-relief funds to be offset with domestic spending cuts.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t want a shutdown,&rdquo; </strong>said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York.<strong> &ldquo;Ask President Trump. Ask our hard-right Freedom Caucus types.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Still, with Democrats scrambling to preserve Obamacare after Trump cut subsidies, the renewed battle over health care could sink the White House&rsquo;s other priorities, like spending. And Trump&rsquo;s decision to encourage &ndash; and then denounce &ndash; a bipartisan plan to enshrine the subsidies in law has only heightened the rancor and mistrust harbored by both Republicans and Democarts.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Trump, who earlier encouraged Alexander to cut a deal, signaled opposition to the measure. <strong>His spokeswoman, Sarah Sanders, said, &ldquo;We need something that goes a little further to get on board.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Steve Bell, a former Senate Budget Committee GOP staff director, said Trump&rsquo;s shifting positions could poison the well for bipartisan deals. &quot;All of that makes a Dec. 8 shutdown very possible,&rdquo; he said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Even passing disaster relief spending &ndash; something President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to deliver &ndash; looks set to devolve into a political dogfight.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Another sticking point is disaster relief. Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico could seek tens of billions of dollars in additional rebuilding money once final damage assessments are tallied. <strong>Conservatives are likely to seek spending cuts in exchange for such funds, which Democrats and many other Republicans reject.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A dispute over extending the Children&rsquo;s Health Insurance Program, which expired in September, could also carry over into the spending bill. <strong>So too could a perennial push by Republican House conservatives to ban funding for Planned Parenthood, which provides abortions and family planning services.</strong> On defense, Republicans are seeking to increase spending caps by $54 billion, while Democrats insist that must be coupled with the same increase for non-defense spending.</p> </blockquote> <p>Republicans would like to avoid a shutdown after the 2013 incident hammered their polling ratings. But Trump&rsquo;s mercurial approach to lawmaking has made legislators in both parties nervous.</p> <p>The real question is: How will markets react once tax reform is off the table and the federal government has ground to a halt? Will the long awaited volatility spike arrive? And will investors then rush to take the opportunity and <em><strong>&quot;buy the fucking government shutdown dip?</strong></em>&quot;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="778" height="348" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.10.17trumpchuck.JPG?1508413629" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/tax-reform-health-care-battles-could-force-government-shutdown-later-year#comments 111th United States Congress Budget Deficit Business Congress Donald Trump Donald Trump Excises federal government First 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency first federal government Florida Government shutdown in the United States Internal Revenue Code Internal Revenue Service John McCain John McCain Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Politics Presidency of Barack Obama Puerto Rico ratings Republican Party Senate Services Committee United States United States federal government shutdown US government Volatility White House White House Thu, 19 Oct 2017 12:59:54 +0000 Tyler Durden 605610 at http://www.zerohedge.com Initial Jobless Claims Crash To Lowest Since 1973 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/initial-jobless-claims-crash-lowest-1973 <p><strong>So much for the hurricane distortions of the US labor market...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_claims.jpg"><img height="312" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_claims_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>Just a few short weeks after initial unemployment claims jumped in the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, in the latest week <strong>the DOL reported that filings for unemployment benefits tumbled to the lowest level in 45 years, or since 1973, as all those workers who were unable to work due to the two hurricanes, returned to their jobs. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_claims1.jpg"><img height="315" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_claims1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>The initial claims print for the latest week - which however included Columbus Day and thus could have been seasinally distorted - was 222K, below the 240K expected, and down 22K from the 244K last week. The less volatilte 4-week initial claims average alsod dropped to 248,250 from 257,750, Meanwhile, continuing claims fell by 16K to 1.89M in the week ended October 7.</p> <p>As Bloomberg notes, <em><strong>&quot;the larger-than-projected decrease in claims probably reflected difficulty adjusting for the Columbus Day holiday. At the same time, the report showed further declines in claims in hurricane- affected states. The storms initially led to a spike in applications in Texas and the southeastern U.S. in late August and early September.&quot;</strong></em></p> <p>According to the DOL, the unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits fell to 1.3% from 1.4%. <strong>The Dept of Labor also announced that application slumped in the hard hit states of Florida, Texas, and Georgia. </strong>Of note, the DOL said that claims were estimated only for the Virgin Islands last week.</p> <p><strong>Finally, and perhaps most notably, the latest period includes the reporting week that the Labor Department surveys for its October employment figures.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="961" height="499" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171019_claims.jpg?1508417053" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/initial-jobless-claims-crash-lowest-1973#comments Atlantic hurricane season Continuing Claims Department of Labor Dol Economy Florida Government Hurricane Irma Initial Jobless Claims Labor Labour law Social programs Social Security southeastern U.S. Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment Benefits Unemployment benefits Unemployment Claims Welfare Thu, 19 Oct 2017 12:47:28 +0000 Tyler Durden 605616 at http://www.zerohedge.com "It's A Synchronized Global Risk-Off" On The Anniversary Of Black Monday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/its-synchronized-global-risk-anniversary-black-monday <p>As <a href="https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/920950819704500224">Nanex&#39; Eric Hunsader shows</a>, <strong>today&#39;s trading session is shaping up - at least for now - as the biggest post-midnight selloff in the S&amp;P in 2017.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/DMffxTDU8AA7xHa.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/10/17/DMffxTDU8AA7xHa_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 431px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>With a notable risk-off tone...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 466px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The selloff is global...</p> <p>AsiaPac...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_hang.jpg"><img height="313" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_hang_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>Europe...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 312px;" /></a></p> <p>And US...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 466px;" /></a></p> <p>Of course, after months of calm acquiescence to the melt-up in global risk assets, a modest drop like today&#39;s needs a narrative to explain it - in order that bullish asset-gatherers can thusly dismiss the fears as &#39;one-offs&#39; and reiterate how the central banks will step in if things get worse... here are your catalysts du jour...</p> <ul> <li><strong>Apple</strong>: supplier orders for iPhone 8 and Plus are reduced by ~50% for Nov. and Dec. with shipments seen at 5-6m units per month: EDN</li> <li><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/kil-bulls-traders-puzzled-last-minute-hong-kong-crash"><strong>PBOC Zhou warning </strong>about household debt levels and asset bubbles</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/kil-bulls-traders-puzzled-last-minute-hong-kong-crash"><strong>Hong Kong: </strong>Hang Seng stock index crashed into the close - biggest drop in 11 months</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/spain-activate-article-155-process-suspending-catalonia-autonomy"><strong>Catalonia</strong>: Spain to invoke Art. 155 and suspend Catalan autonomy after regional president refused to drop independence claims </a></li> <li><strong>ECB&rsquo;s Nowotny: </strong>ECB cannot stop QE purchases abruptly; policy can be normalized before inflation reaches 1.9%, would be a mistake to wait too long on changing QE</li> <li><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-18/yield-curve-inverts-yuan-slides-china-gdp-growth-slows"><strong>China 3Q GDP</strong> 6.8% down from 6.9%; Retail Sales 10.3% vs 10.2% est; Industrial Output 6.6% vs 6.5% est; Fixed Assets 7.5% vs 7.7% est.</a></li> <li><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/meet-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-new-prime-minister-kiwi-tumbles"><strong>New Zealand:</strong> new coalition govt formed between Labour and First parties; National Party ousted</a></li> <li><strong>U.K. Sept. Retail Sales </strong>m/m: -0.8% vs -0.1% est.</li> </ul> <p>As Alexandre Baradez, chief market analyst at IG France, notes,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a synchronized risk-off move for stocks, with gold, the yen, the Swiss franc rallying, right on the day of the Black Monday anniversary...</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There hasn&rsquo;t been a clear trigger in the news this time, rather of mixed negative elements, including worries that Trump won&rsquo;t be able to deliver on tax cuts anytime soon.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Baradez is correct that Trump Tax hope is gone...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171013_tax.jpg"><img height="314" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171013_tax_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Happy Anniversary...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/10/17/20171019_drop3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 321px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="956" height="511" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171019_drop3.jpg?1508416872" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-19/its-synchronized-global-risk-anniversary-black-monday#comments Apple Black Monday Business Central Banks European Central Bank fixed France Hang Seng 40 Monday National Party New Zealand S&P Stock market crashes Swiss Franc Yen Thu, 19 Oct 2017 12:42:12 +0000 Tyler Durden 605614 at http://www.zerohedge.com