Beware The Ides Of October...

"We are are waiting for Mr. October to step up and knock the risk markets for a loop, however, resulting in a nice fall correction (pun intended).  We believe many factors will be converging  by then, including..."

EU Gives Poland One Month Ultimatum, Threatens With "Article 7 Procedure"

The European Commission escalated the diplomatic row between Brussels and Warsaw when it announced that the EU was launching legal infringement proceedings and giving Warsaw a one month ultimatum over one of the recently passed reforms to Poland's court system, threatening that the country's voting rights could be suspended

Five Years Ago Today...

“The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

Frontrunning: July 26

  • Oil bounce, results keep stocks on high (Reuters)
  • Healthcare brawl returns to Senate floor (Reuters); Senate Sets Up Health Votes for Chaotic Obamacare Debate (BBG); Health Debate Rolls On After First Option Fails (WSJ)
  • Who Will Blink First in the Sessions Standoff? (BBG)
  • Iran Says ‘Hostile’ U.S. Sanctions Vote Undermines Nuclear Deal (BBG)
  • Russia Warns of ‘Painful’ Response If Trump Backs U.S. Sanctions (BBG)

Global Stocks Jump, Crude Booms As Yellen Looms

S&P futures were fractionally higher (+0.1% to 2,476) with all eyes on the Fed's rate decision as investors await another earnings deluge from companies including Facebook, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Asian and European shares were also higher, the Dollar rebound continued while oil rose above $48 as copper hit a two year high.

"If The VIX Goes Bananas" This Is What It Will Look Like

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff.  Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts

EU Faces Dilemma: To Stand Tall Or Kneel

"Until now Europe has failed to resist American pressure. This is another opportunity to take a stand and defy Washington. The European Commission will discuss next steps today... The outcome will be a litmus test for Europe's unity to show whether the bloc is really a powerful alliance of the countries ready to protect their interests or it is nothing more than a puppet on a string dancing to the US tune."

Washington Post Writes Story Praising John McCain - There's Just One Problem

"To achieve its marketing feat, the Washington Post must rewrite history and torture definitions to fit a childlike narrative of McCain as brave truth-teller, rather than predictable champion of war and empire who occasionally makes toothless references to human rights for the purposes of image curation."

Bank Of England Warns Of "Spiral Of Complacency" Over Soaring Consumer Debt

"Ten years ago, an unsafe financial system caused financial crisis and economic disaster.  Complacency gave way to crisis. The result was economic disaster. Lenders have not entered, but they may be dicing with the spiral of complacency.  The spiral continues, and borrowers rack up more and more debt. Lending standards can go from responsible to reckless very quickly."

The Current Big Lie Is...

"The Big Lie today is this: that the reason for the economic sanctions against Russia, is that 'Putin' or Russia 'stole' or 'conquered' or 'seized' the Crimea region of Ukraine. The Big Truth, about the matter, is that US President Obama conquered Ukraine itself (all of it), via a February 2014 CIA coup that he had secretly started planning by no later than 2011..."

Paul Craig Roberts On "The Conspiracy To Remove Trump From The Presidency"

"...the success of this false and orchestrated story of Russian hacking, for which not a scrap of evidence exists, revealed to the military/security complex the opportunity to remove Trump and thus protect the oversized budget and power of the military/security complex that is threatened by Trump’s intention to normalize relations with Russia."