Tyler Durden's picture

Spot The Difference: ISIS Or Saudi Arabia

One is a terrorist organization, the other is America's most revered, oil-exporting ally...



Tyler Durden's picture

Gold, Dollar "Disruption", And Central Banks' Miscalculated Insanity

"It isn’t really about interest rates or “inflation”, obviously as gold is rising as inflation “expectations” dramatically sink here, so much as gold is insurance against central banks being wrong. That seems to be the common theme all over the world ever since June when the ECB placed its desperation and impotence on full display. Everything that has occurred since then has only confirmed the monetary illusion being exactly that, including the US and its central bank’s place at really the central point of the miscalculated insanity."



Tyler Durden's picture

Friday Humor: Hitler Realizes He Was Short Swiss Francs

"...I wish to remain alone with the account manager, the risk manager, the fundamental analyst, and the technical analyst... we were using only 20x leverage and you tell me it's all gone!!"



Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Dinosaurs Face Extinction: State Oil Companies And The Meteor-Strike Of Low Oil Prices

State-owned oil companies that don't slash expenses to align with revenues and boost critical investment in the infrastructure needed to maintain production will suffer financial extinction.



Tyler Durden's picture

Artist's Impression Of President Obama's Thoughts During The State of The Union Speech

Well you have to laugh really...



Tyler Durden's picture

These Shale Companies Will File For Bankruptcy First: Goldman's "Best And Worst" Shale Matrix

Over a month ago we presented a ranking of "America's most levered energy companies." Since then they have all, without exception gotten clobbered, not only in their publicly traded stock but also their debt. Today, long after the liquidation whirlwind has left junk bond owners dazed and confused, Goldman catches up, and lays out a matrix of shale companies sorted not only by leveraged (they see 2.5x as the cutoff; we used 4.0x) but also by shale asset quality. From there, it also lays out the various opportunities, if any, available to the management teams in the resultant 4 quadrants. Readers will be most interested in the "restructuring/bankruptcy" option, most applicable for Group 4, because these are the names which,  all else equal, will file for bankruptcy first.



Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: The ABC's Of The ECB's QE

Well the day has finally arrived that after two years of promises, jawboning and hope - the European Central Bank finally announced they will take the plunge into the Quantitative Easing (QE) pool. Whether or not the ECB's QE program has the desired effect or not will not be realized for a while. However, this week's reading list is a variety of opinions and initial takes on the "ABC's of the ECB's QE."



Tyler Durden's picture

Congress Proposes Bill To Restore First Amendment Rights... Then Kills It

To this day, many governments around the world maintain a tight grip on dissent. There was a time long ago when the US was a refreshing outlier in this trend. At the time of its founding, the Land of the Free took a bold stance in asserting that its citizens all had a number of inalienable rights. But gradually these rights have been chipped away, particularly in this century as we’ve seen the rise of a tradeoff between liberty and security. This past month, one Congressman finally said that enough was enough and proposed a new bill to bring back our First Amendment rights... Just two weeks after the bill was submitted, it was squashed.



Tyler Durden's picture

Q4 Shaping Up As Worst Quarter In Years: Aggregate Revenues And EPS Have Missed By 1.2% and 0.4% So Far

In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings and revenue below expectations to date. The aggregate dollar-level earnings reported by these 37 companies is 0.4% below the aggregate dollar-level earnings estimated for these 37 companies. The aggregate dollar-level revenue reported by these 37 companies is 1.2% below the aggregate dollar-level revenue estimated for these 37 companies. As a result, even though more companies have beat earnings and revenue estimates to date than missed earnings and revenue estimates, the surprise percentage (which reflects the aggregate difference between actual results and estimated results) is negative for both earnings (-0.4%) and revenue (-1.2%). This means that Q4 is shaping up as the worst quarter since 2012, perhaps even the start of the great financial crisis in 2008/2009.



Tyler Durden's picture

Argentine President "Convinced" Nisman Death Was Not Suicide As New Twists Emerge

"No one believes the suicide hypothesis," one of Nisman's investigative team told Reuters, adding that, "he was very convinced of his ideas and prepared to see them through. He had received threats all his life and it never intimidated him." With the news of no gunpowder residue sinking in, and protests rising, even Argentina's President is now uncomfortably admitting it, saying on Thursday that she was "convinced" Nisman's death was not a suicide, explaining that people had led him astray in his investigation in order to smear her name and then "needed him dead." However, instead of vowing to shed light on the matter, Fernandez and her government have been on the defensive, trying to refute Nisman's claims against her. Neighboring Uruguay said it felt sorry for Argentina and that its justice system needs to clear up the case to maintain "the minimal confidence our societies need." Questions abound...



Tyler Durden's picture

When BTFD Fails: Spot The Oil ETF "Knife Catchers"

With crude oil prices once again testing cycle (multi-year) lows this morning - following a brief bounce on the death of Saudi King Abdullah - we thought it intriguing that for the 4th month in a row fund flows into the iPath Oil ETN have surged to almost six year highs. As Bloomberg Briefs reports, "the kind of flows that we're seeing can only be explained by 'catch the falling knife' behavior, where people are trying to call the bottom," as December and Jnauary flows now top $400 million - the most in 6 years for a 2-month period (as price plummet further). But 'investors' are piling into double- and triple- levered "up" oil bets too...



Tyler Durden's picture

Mark Spitznagel On The Value Of Tail-Hedged Equities

Due to the principal-agent problem in the asset management industry, most money managers rationally have a propensity to use a negatively skewed payoff distribution. This kind of behavior, in aggregate, is also evidenced in the historical data, which shows significant losses for professional investors during the largest market downturns. Most investors and asset allocators, in addition to these negatively skewed positions, further view the returns of hedging strategies in a vacuum, rather than as a holistic part of their broader portfolio. Thus, they are likely to consider portfolio hedging programs to be a drag on their performance numbers and further undervalue them. We believe these factors, among others, contribute to a market segmentation that creates an undervaluation in tail-risk hedges.



RANSquawk Video's picture

RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap - 23rd January 2015



Tyler Durden's picture

No More "Dog Dung Vacuums" As SkyMall Files For Bankruptcy

In what will likely end the hopes and dreams of many air travellers hoping to pick up the latest crystal-encrusted iphone cufflinks, upright sleeper, hiccup stick, or dog dung vacuum; Commercial Bankruptcy Investor reports that the companies behind the SkyMall catalogs has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. This news comes as Xhibit - SkyMall's parent company - sees its stock price collapse and December's news that Southwest Airlines (which accounted for at least 7% of SkyMall's sales) would no longer distribute the catalogs. On the bright side, any liquidation is great for those looking to pick up a Diamond Jubilee Queen and Corgi statuette or a Doll-House styled cat litter...



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