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"US Will Feel Tangible Losses," Russia Prepares To Unleash Retaliatory Trade Wars

"It's a troubling continuation/expansion of trade as a geopolitical tool," warns one Washington-based consulting firm as Russia prepares to unleash retaliatory actions to US and European sanctions. As Bloomberg reports, Russia said yesterday it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S. and fruit from Europe and is investigating McDonald's cheese for safety. In addition, a Russian lawmaker has drafted legislation that might result in U.S. accounting firms being barred from doing business in his country. All of this is odd given Jack "trust me" Lew's reassurance that Russian sanctions would have no impact on the US economy. Russia's response, US will feel 'tangible losses' from 'destructive, myopic' sanctions.



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Six Current Economic Myths And Realities

The following are six of the most prevalent economic myths that appear time and again in the mainstream media...



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Chart(s) Of The Day: A Decade Of GDP Revisions

What is the best word to describe GDP? One suggestion: changing.



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The Fed's Failure Complicates Its Endgame

To demonstrate it hasn't failed, the Fed must taper/withdraw its monetary heroin. If the stock market tanks as a result, and the Fed rushes to the rescue with more free money for financiers, that will also prove the Fed has failed: if the economy and financial system is as robust as the Fed claims, why does it need to be rescued yet again after six long years of unprecedented injections of monetary heroin? It's a double-bind with no escape. No matter what the Fed chooses to do, the failure of its policies to help households and Main Street while enriching wall Street and the banks will be revealed to all.



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Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike; Historical Data Revised

Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below.



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Stocks Slide, Erase All GDP Gains

Well that didn't last long...



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Argentine Bonds Soar To Record Highs As Hope Rules (For Now)

While last night saw'The Holdouts' and 'The Argentina Delegation' come face-to-face for the first time in a decade for negotiations, when they went to bed late last night, there was no resolution. No news yet this morning of when the meeting will reconvene but it appears market participants are hopeful... The Argentina 2033 bonds are exploding higher. ARG 2033s are up over 10 points to a record-high price of 97.50. Let's hope they are not disappointed at the hopes for a bank bailout. Of course, we saw this kind of exuberant jump right after the initial pro-holdouts ruling drop...



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Greenspan Fears "False Dawn" In US Economy, Warns Of "Equity Correction At Some Point"

Equity bulls should be exuberant. The last time Alan Greenspan warned of exuberance and potential for a correction, stocks soared for a few more years. While Yellen's stock-picking skills have been questioned in recent days, Greenspan has once again weighed in:

*GREENSPAN SAYS 'KEY QUESTION' IS WHETHER U.S. FACES FALSE DAWN
*GREENSPAN PREDICTS AT SOME POINT EQUITIES TO HAVE CORRECTION

Although Greenspan declined to second-guess the Fed, he sees a problem moving toward "normalized" policy for his descendants.



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GDP Sparks Gold Dump, Stock Pump

Bond yields jumped over 4bps on the better than expected GDP print. Stocks popped along with the USD index. Gold was flip-flopped all over the place - an initial dump was followed by a rip back over $1300 only to be sold back down to $1295 now... Equity exuberance is fading back a little now as machines 'read' the anti-goldilocks ADP print and inventory-stuffed Fed-hawk-supporting GDP print as indicative of a punch bowl that just got dragged away a little more...



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Moscow Stock Exchange Breaks - Trading Halted



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ADP Tumbles From June Exuberance, Misses 3rd Of Last 4 Months

Following last month's exuberant explosion of job gains according to ADP (the most since Nov 2012), the ADP employment report shows jobs missing expectations at 218k (vs 230k) and tumbling from the 281k print in June. Curious, there were still two days in the month when ADP estimated the full month print, which is curious considering ADP staunchly refuses to provide its unadjusted numbers. This is the 3rd ADP miss in 4 months. Zandi helpful addition, "there's job growth everywhere" except as we noted - not as much as expected. Today's print appears the anti-goldilocks, not low enough to prompt the Fed to get more dovish and not high enough to suggest growth is anything like markets expect.



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Obama Infuriates Republicans With Latest Plan To Deport Fewer Illegal Immigrants

After Eric Cantor's shocking defeat at the hands of an unknown Tea Party member several months ago, US immigration reform was said to be all but dead, a condition which has been substantially exacerbated by recent tensions over the influx of Central American children crossing the southern US border. However, contrary to initial appeals that Obama is limited in what he can do without a cooperative Congress, the president now appears set to take his latest unilateral decision, one that is set to set republicans fuming and the ranks of future potential democrat voters soaring, when as the WSJ reports, Obama may take "broad action to scale back deportations that could include work permits for millions of people, according to lawmakers and immigration advocates who have consulted with the White House."



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Frontrunning: July 30

  • Fed Decision-Day Guide: QE Tapering to Inflation Debate (BBG)
  • Obama says strains over Ukraine not leading to new Cold War with Russia (Reuters)
  • Siemens to BP Prepare for Downward Russia Business Spiral (BBG)
  • Paying Ransoms, Europe Bankrolls Qaeda Terror (NYT)
  • Argentina Banks Preparing Bid to Help Argentina Avoid Default (WSJ)
  • Obama Weighs Fewer Deportations of Illegal Immigrants Living in U.S. (WSJ)
  • India Warships Off Japan Show Rising Lure as China Counterweight (BBG)
  • Hong Kong Popping Housing Bubbles London Can’t Handle (BBG)
  • Carnage at U.N. school as Israel pounds Gaza refugee camp (Reuters)


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Futures Push Higher Ahead Of Data Deluge, Yellen Capital Statement

This week's US data onslaught begins today, with the ADP private payroll report first on deck (Exp. 230K, down from 281K), followed by the number of the day, Q2 GDP, which after Q1's abysmal -2.9%, is expected to increase 3%. Anything less and in the first half the US economy will have contracted, something the purists could claim is equivalent to a recession. The whisper numbers are to the downside since consumption and trade never caught up and the only variable is inventory as well as Obamacare, whose impact was $40 billion "contribution" in Q1 was entirely eliminated and instead led to a deduction, something we expect will be reversed into Q2. Following the backward looking GDP (which will be ignored by the sellside penguins if it is bad and praised if good) at 2:00 pm Yellen Capital LLC comes out with a correction on her call to short social networking stocks, as well as admit once again that the "data-driven" Fed really has no idea what it is doing and how it will tighten, but that tightening is imminent and another $10 billion taper to QE will take place ahead of a full phase out in October. Joking aside, the Fed is expected not to do much if anything, which may be just the right time for Yellen to inject an aggressively hawkish note considering her inflation "noise" refuses to go away.



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