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Obama Contract Slides On InTrade

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The first debate is still in progress, but the habitual gamblers who have a compulsion to bet all the time 24/7 on event outcomes have already spoken via their favorite venue InTrade, and the initial reaction is not favorable for the incumbent. Having traded over 70 for nearly two weeks, the "Obama for president" contract flash crashed below 70 promptly for the first time in many days, and has slid 8% in the past few minutes. Naturally, the contract has quite a bit to go until parity. On the other hand it does bear remembering that when it comes to predictive capacity InTrade odds are notoriously bad: just recall the Obamacare gamble when virtually everyone on InTrade was certain it would not pass. All that said, at least according to InTrade it appears that the first presidential debate has not gone quite as the current president might have planned.

 

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Thu, 10/04/2012 - 04:50 | 2855077 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

I remember that scene in The Princess Bride.

Oh, and "A bright future is in store ... ?"

I don't think that phrase means what you think it means.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 22:54 | 2854611 Martial
Martial's picture

Chances of false flag just went up.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 07:05 | 2855182 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Due to unknown reports of threats against Gov Romney, I have had him taken to a secure place until after the election."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 22:57 | 2854618 lostcause
lostcause's picture

 Damn it! If I only had my Teleprompter!

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:00 | 2854622 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 TOTUS kept looking down as if he were summoning a Teleprompter.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:03 | 2854624 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I would really rather have had a Ron Paul vs. Barack O'bomb-a debate. That would have been quality TV.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:07 | 2854634 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Obummer the dickhead would be nuked if he faced Ron Paul in a debate.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 04:51 | 2855079 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Actually, for pure entertainment value, Newt and the dickhead woulda been the best.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:08 | 2854635 chump666
chump666's picture

Romney is a carbon copy of Obama in a white, premed Wall Street way.  S&P futures, HFT churners jumped on this a-hole wining the debate.  Why? He is a printer. 

Volatility.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:07 | 2854636 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

it  matters   not      money  talks  and  bullshit  walks  the  die  is  long  since  cast   irrespective of  who  wins    ,  oops   make  that    the  cast   is....   someone  above   nailed  it ...  that   cynical   smirking   chicago   wardheeler   subconsciously  doesnt want the job. Which  is rather clever.  

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:41 | 2854701 pavman
pavman's picture

Its just a setup for 2016 when we've gone through hyperinflation and Obama comes around and says "See, I told you so."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:08 | 2854638 californiagirl
californiagirl's picture

Obama should avoid numbers at all costs since he has no idea about any of the finances he is responsible for. How can Romney cut taxes by $5 Trillion if the federal government does not collect that much in tax revenues in a year? Does that mean he thinks Romney will abolish taxes and have the IRS pay all of us instead?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:09 | 2854639 walcott
walcott's picture

Back to the chomp wagon and smoke some bowls.

 

note 1:15 Cheech & Chong - Up In Smoke

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUWD-FflZPI

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:30 | 2854689 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

I believe Obama called it the "choom wagon".  Cheech and Choom looked like a complete idiot tonight.  I was waiting for Obama to just stomp off stage in frustration.  “The emperor has no cloths, the emperor has no cloths….”

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:57 | 2854744 walcott
walcott's picture

What a joke. He performed about as well as Marvis Frazier did here.

July 26 1986 -- Tyson v Marvis Frazier

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc2phQYGq2g

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:16 | 2854642 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Like these debates over the 0.00001% difference between the candidates matters. Hell, GW got owned in every debate he ever attended, except maybe the one where Gore put on way too much makeup and looked like an idiot to compliment Bush's being an idiot. Yet, GW still won both elections...with lots of help from the supreme court and Diebolt, and hired protesters in Florida, etc... So this time we get the outright asshole (Mittney) or the slightly less outright asshole (Obama). I'm voting Rocky Anderson as I will not vote for a Demopublican ever again.

It's all part of the bread and circuses scheme to make it look like we have a choice.so that we will vote, thereby giving credibility to this bought and paid for corrupt system and making us complicit in out enslavement. Be sure to get excited about it!!

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 01:01 | 2854878 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

They're both the same.  Why do you care?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:12 | 2854644 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

You people actually watched this shit??? You like pretending the elections are real? Does that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside? Is it like sex? Did you masturbate to Obamney while singing "God Bless America" in your undies from China?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:23 | 2854678 hannah
hannah's picture

so you didnt even watch the debates yet want to dabate about the thing you didnt watch...man you are a fucking idiot.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 00:47 | 2854854 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Did I bruise your ego? Do you actually think your opinion matters?

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:18 | 2854645 pavman
pavman's picture

Anyone else notice Romney's closing remarks regarding increasing incomes (e.g. not stopping inflation)?  See, the problem is... increasing taxes is one of the dual tools required when increasing the monetary base to prevent inflation.  That and austerity.  Meh, both choices suck, but I suppose one animal is more equal than others.

 

Also, Barry's mention of the 2009 addition to the tax code as part of the stimulus, then again in 2010, that of being able to deduct private jet purchases, was audacious.  I have to give some political smarts credit to the Democrats for creating a tax credit in a prior year only to assist the incumbent in the next Presidential election cycle due to the obvious class warfare tactics they themsevles have fostered.  Brilliant, or just plain retarded to think people are this dumb.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:14 | 2854658 Dkizzle49855
Dkizzle49855's picture

I'm going to have to take someone else's word on tonights debate since both of these shit stains aren't worth my time to watch that circus.  I have more important things to do like spend quality time on ZH and then write in RP on election date.  Fuck em. . . . ..

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:56 | 2854746 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Ron Paul gave a nice short interview on CNBC where he hinted at people writing in his name or just not voting while saying the FED needed to be audited and foreign wars of imperial conquest (in not so many words) needed to be ended.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:17 | 2854665 Darkside
Darkside's picture

We are so done .I believe Obama has not a clue whats going on. He looked like he felt out of place and didn't even prepare for this. The guy was stammering, repeating himself and couldn't even directly point to ANYTHING he has accomplished. In my view Romney swepped the floor with him (I have no idea why the guy wants that job). But it doesn’t matter the MSM will push this asshole down everyone’s throat. Obama will probably win.  But it doesn’t matter who gets in we are all seriously screwed.

There are no regulators. (Just humans milling about collecting paychecks, contemplating and manipulating their next career move)There are no regulations. (Just words on paper justifying regulators milling about collecting paychecks and Lawyers manipulating and billing an industry)

 

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:21 | 2854671 pavman
pavman's picture

I'm torn as to which arrow I should click for your post, so I'm going to refrain from clicking.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 04:56 | 2855083 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

This is fight club. Remember?

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 07:01 | 2855178 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Gee, the Manchurian has only had his ass kissed every day for his entire life until last night.

TOTUS: You didn't win that.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:22 | 2854679 grunk
grunk's picture

Obama contracts, Romney contracts...

Even our Presidents are worthless paper.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:27 | 2854686 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

"Goldman Slave A has more gag-inducing anecdotes about a real person they met for two minutes than Goldman Slave B."

 

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 

FUCK BEN BERNANKE

NO INTEREST RATE MANIPULATION

CLOSE THE NY FED

BREAK UP TBTF BANKS, JAIL THE CEOS AND MIRROR THEIR HARD DRIVES ON THE WEB

And by all means stay cool.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:28 | 2854687 stant
stant's picture

dancing with the czars, all bets are losers

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:28 | 2854688 d2themfi
d2themfi's picture

I trust pinnacle odds waaaaay more than intrade. Romney jumped from 4:1 dog to 3:1 dog. Pretty decent move for 90 minutes

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 06:15 | 2855135 PhilofOz
PhilofOz's picture

Betfair has always been my guide although I do usually only use it for betting slow and fast racehorses....  mittens was at least 5.5 with them a few days ago and is now 3.95.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:29 | 2854690 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

What  price  power?    Who  would  take  that  job,  to  run  around  with  your dick  out in  Air   Force  One?  What   a hoot.

 

    This  is   about immutable   stone cold   numbers   it  cannot   remotely   be  fixed,   its   a laydown  slam.

    Your  upside  is   to  preside   over  the fall of   America,  and   they   write   your  name  in  red   ochre  on  the  cave   walls  with  Mel  Gibson  on  a dune  buggy  in  the valley  looking   for   body  warmth   restored. .

    It  should  more properly  be set  up  as a reverse  lottery  and   whatever citizen   has the profound  misfortune of  picking the  Queen  Of  Spades   ,  well  buckle  up   Mr   President , snap  on  those   Depends   for   some  fun  as  your  country   revisits  the   stone age. Its   over   and its   sad    but . kindly    be serious . Pray and prep.  

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 01:02 | 2854879 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Well         thanks          for          your             comment.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:31 | 2854692 FleaMarketPete
FleaMarketPete's picture

Obama looked like an emperor being told he was naked…

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:37 | 2854705 Perdogg
Perdogg's picture

"The reason uhhhhh I didn't do well in the debate, I-I-uh uh was so focused on the planning for the Libya attack."

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:39 | 2854714 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Put $100 on 30 to 1 double sixes, I feel lucky!"

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:42 | 2854720 Smaug
Smaug's picture

Obama sounded like a pre schooler. Romney sounded like a college professor.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 00:23 | 2854793 Bear
Bear's picture

Worth repeating

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:41 | 2854721 Smaug
Smaug's picture

Obama sounded like a pre schooler. Romney sounded like a college professor.

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 05:02 | 2855084 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Down arrow for bad Three Stooges routine. If I was Moe Howard, I'd be smackin' you right now.

Wed, 10/03/2012 - 23:48 | 2854730 Venerability
Venerability's picture

As an investor and trader who is Bullish on Oil, Bullish on Gold, and Bearish on too much Austerity, I feel I won the debate tonight!

*** Governor Romney was so keen on making up for the "47 percent" fiasco and appearing likeable, he fell back on the ole political standby of "a chicken - or in his case, probably a lobster - in every pot."

He literally threw the Austerity-Mongers in the GOP under the bus - which, by the way, is going to make things much more difficult for Uber-Hawk Ryan in next week's debate.

I have said repeatedly that my party needed a return to Nelson Rockefeller - and Governor Romney may have been reading my posts. He was in kissing babies and eating bagels mode.  I cannot think Grover Norquist was very happy about it, nor the Fiscal Cliffies in Congress.

*** Romney's best dig at President Obama, bar none - nothing even close - was his attacks on green energy support and how much it has been costing. He also pushed for pipelines and getting along with Canada for a change.

Obama may well have to counter this the next month by throwing some of his own supporters - the UltraGreens - under the bus and being more, not less, supportive of the Oil and Nat Gas sectors. (Romney also courted the Coal people, which I don't think was a particularly good idea.)

*** Romney previewed his stance in the Foreign Policy debate in two weeks by saying nasty things about China. And if he's starting in already, he is clearly going to get nastier and nastier.

China, which is already not amused, will likely become further and further not amused.

When China is not amused, it pressures the US Treasury market, which tends to boost stocks. 

China also gets revenge against those who diss it by buying Gold and Silver, which it is already doing anyway. It just may do it faster and more visibly.

So, all in all, I'm happy!

 

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 06:59 | 2855177 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

China is not amused since their secret agent lost the debate.

Hu: "Hurry up, Orama! Send secret plans for new X-15 jet engine quickly!"

Thu, 10/04/2012 - 06:54 | 2855171 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Well, something happened. Look at the move in Au and Ag!

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