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Guest Post: Will A Prophet Assume Command?
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,
[Yes it's daunting; but well worth the time to grasp the inexorable path that we are on and rather stunning parallels to previous periods in our history]

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Strauss & Howe wrote these words in 1997. They had predicted the arrival of another Crisis in this time frame in their previous book Generations, written in 1990. This wasn’t guesswork on their part. They understood the dynamics of how generations interact and how the mood of the country shifts every twenty or so years based upon the generational alignment that occurs as predictably as the turning of the seasons. The last generation that lived through the entire previous Crisis from 1929 through 1946 has virtually died off. This always signals the onset of the next Fourth Turning. The housing bubble and its ultimate implosion created the spark for the current Crisis that began in September 2008, with the near meltdown of the worldwide financial system. Just as the stock market crash of 1929, the election of Lincoln in 1860, and the Boston Tea Party in 1773 catalyzed a dramatic mood change in the country, the Wall Street created financial collapse in 2008 has ushered in a twenty year period of agony, suffering, war and ultimately the annihilation of the existing social order.
We have experienced the American High (Spring) from 1946 until 1964, witnessing America’s ascendancy as a global superpower. We survived the turbulent Consciousness Revolution Awakening (Summer) from 1964 until 1984, as Vietnam era protests morphed into yuppie era greed. The Long Boom/Culture Wars Unraveling (Fall) lasted from Reagan’s Morning in America in 1984 until the 2008 Wall Street/Federal Reserve spawned crash. The pessimism built to a crescendo as worry about rising violence and incivility, widening wealth inequality, and the splitting of the national consensus into extremes on the left and right, led the country into a winter of discontent. The Global Financial Crisis (Winter) has arrived in full fury and is likely to last until the late 2020’s. It will be an era of upheaval, financial turbulence, economic collapse, war, and the complete redefinition of society, as the existing corrupt status quo is swept away in the fury of powerful hurricane winds of change. History is cyclical and we’ve entered the most dangerous season, when the choices we make as a nation will have profound long lasting implications to the lives of future unborn generations.
The linear thinkers and so called progressives who believe that history charges relentlessly forward and human ingenuity overcomes all obstacles as the world becomes progressively richer, advanced, and humane ignore the lessons of history that have been re-written every 80 to 100 years for centuries. Generational theory is so simple that even an Ivy League intellectual economist, corrupt congressman, or CNBC anchor bimbo could grasp the basic concept. The four turnings in the ongoing cycle of history match a long human life. There is a reason we forget the lessons of the past. Those who remember the lessons die off after 80 years. The linear thinking status quo keep predicting an improving economy based upon their beliefs that the next fifteen years will proceed in a similar fashion to the last fifteen years. They refuse to acknowledge we’ve entered a new era that cannot be reversed to a previous point in time. Once you’ve experienced the harsh bitter winds of the Winter, you have to deal with months of depressing darkness, harsh conditions, and stormy weather before experiencing the return of the warm breezes of Spring. The tranquil days of autumn are long gone. This dynamic can be clearly visualized by comparing our economic situation in 2007, prior to entering this Fourth Turning, to our economic situation today:
End of Unraveling in 2007 versus fourth year of Crisis in 2012
- In 2007, the unemployment rate was 4.6%; 146 million people, or 63% of the working age population, were employed; and 78 million Americans were not in the labor force. Today, after three years of “recovery”, the unemployment rate is 7.9%; 143 million people, or 58.8% of the working age population are employed; and 88 million Americans are not in the labor force.
- Real median household income was $55,039 in 2007. It has fallen by 8.2% to $50,502 today.
- BLS reported inflation has risen by 12% since 2007. True inflation has risen at twice that rate.
- Median net worth in 2007 was $126,400. By 2010 it had fallen to $77,300, a 39% drop in three years. As of today, it may be a few thousand dollars higher as stock prices have risen and home prices have stopped falling.
- In 2007 there were 5.7 million existing homes sold at a median price of $218,900. Today there are 4.3 million existing homes being sold at a median price of $183,900. Over 1 million of these home sales are foreclosures or short sales, as 30% of all the homes with a mortgage in the country owe more than their house is worth.
- Federal government spending in 2007 was $2.73 trillion. Federal government spending today is $3.8 trillion, a 39% increase in five years. GDP in 2007 was $14.2 trillion. Today GDP is $15.8 trillion, an 11% increase in five years. Approximately 25% of the GDP increase is due to increased government spending.
- Government entitlement transfers totaled $1.7 trillion in 2007. Today they total $2.4 trillion, a 41% increase in five years. Interest income paid to senior citizens and savers totaled $1.25 trillion in 2007. Today interest income totals $985 billion, a 21% decrease in five years. Wall Street bankers needed the money to pay themselves bonuses, so Ben Bernanke obliged.
- The annual deficit in 2007 totaled $161 billion. Today, the annual deficit is $1.1 trillion. We add $3 billion per day to the national debt as a gift to unborn generations.
- The national debt in 2007 was $9 trillion. Today the national debt is $16.3 trillion, an 81% increase in five years. The national debt will reach $20 trillion during the next presidential term. Normalization of interest rates to 2007 levels would result in annual interest expense of $1 trillion, or 40% of current government revenues.
There is nothing normal about our current economic situation. The unfunded liabilities at the Federal, State and local levels of government accumulate to over $200 trillion. Do the facts detailed above lead you to believe we can return to pre-2007 normal in the near future, or ever? Not only has the economic situation of the country deteriorated enormously, the very culprits who created the disaster are more powerful than they were before the global catastrophe caused by their criminal risk taking. The largest Wall Street banks control 74% of all the deposits in the country, up from 66% in 2007, and double the levels from the mid-1990’s. These bastions of capitalism wield all of the power in this country, dictating who wins elections, who writes the laws, and who benefits from the distribution of wealth. Only in a corrupt, crony-capitalist, citadel of kleptocracy could the perpetrators of the greatest theft of national wealth in the history of mankind be rewarded with taxpayer financed bailouts, the ability to borrow an unlimited amount of fiat currency at 0% from a Central Bank they control, write the new banking regulations and be applauded by their corporate mainstream media for becoming even Too Bigger to Fail. This Fourth Turning will ultimately come down to a clash between the people and the Wall Street filth.

Those in power today are using their ample wealth and control over the legal, economic and political systems to pretend that an epic crisis does not beckon at our doorstep. Propaganda and media spin cannot avert the brutally hard choices that must be made over the next fifteen years. The existing system is unsustainable. It can either be changed by choice or after a complete collapse. We haven’t reached the point of regeneracy yet when civic purpose begins to strengthen. The outcome of this presidential election will determine the next phase of this Crisis. Strauss & Howe described the normal course of a crisis in 1997:
“A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice. People support new efforts to wield public authority, whose perceived successes soon justify more of the same. Government governs, community obstacles are removed, and laws and customs that resisted change for decades are swiftly shunted aside. A grim preoccupation with civic peril causes spiritual curiosity to decline. Public order tightens, private risk-taking abates, and crime and substance abuse decline. Families strengthen, gender distinctions widen, and child-rearing reaches a smothering degree of protection and structure. The young focus their energy on worldly achievements, leaving values in the hands of the old. Wars are fought with fury and for maximum result.” - The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Clearly this country has not reached a common consensus and is split 50%/50% on most important issues. Debates about the role of government are waged with vitriolic passion, but the reality is that, as in past Fourth Turnings, the government has already assumed a greater level of power and control over our lives. The majority believe that government can protect them, provide for them, and pay their way. This is a delusion which will be revealed as fraudulent and mathematically impossible. The incompetent government preparation prior to Superstorm Sandy and the dysfunctional, bureaucratic and painfully slow response afterward are opening the eyes of many people. The decisions which are yet to be made are what kind of society shall we be and who will be required to sacrifice to achieve a positive outcome at the end of this Crisis. Turnings are driven by a mood change in the country and the constellation of generations at that point in time. The generations are now aligned as they always are during a Crisis:
- Boomers entering elderhood
- Gen-Xers entering midlife
- Millennials entering young adulthood
- Homelanders entering childhood
History does not repeat but it does rhyme, because of the cyclical nature of human experience. The specific events that drive this Crisis are unknowable, but the generational response to these events can be predicted with uncanny accuracy. Each generation will play its assigned role during this Crisis. The current generational configuration will propel events and create a feedback loop that will change the course of human history on a scale consistent with the Depression/World War II, the Civil War and the American Revolution.
“What will propel these events? As the saeculum turns, each of today’s generations will enter a new phase of life, producing a Crisis constellation of Boomer elders, midlife 13ers, young adult Millennials, and children from the new Silent Generation. As each archetype asserts its new social role, American society will reach its peak of potency. The natural order givers will be elder Prophets, the natural order takers young Heroes. The no-nonsense bosses will be midlife Nomads, the sensitive souls the child Artists. No archetypal constellation can match the gravitational of this one – nor its power to congeal the natural dynamic of human history into new civic purposes. And none can match its potential power to condense countless arguments, anxieties, cynicisms, and pessimisms into one apocalyptic storm.” - The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
The mood of the country continues to blacken. A simmering anger boils beneath the surface of an everyday façade of normalcy. The middle class majority is being squeezed in a vice, with the rich powerful plutocrats on Wall Street and in Washington DC stealing their hard earned net worth through financial scams, the gutting of our industrial base and a tax system designed to benefit those who write the laws on one side and the parasitic willfully ignorant underclass that is sustained only through the extraction of taxes from the working middle class on the other side. Our society has become a hunger games tournament, with the few benefitting while the many scramble to survive. The stench of class warfare is in the air. The generational resentment and rage is palatable as the Millenial generation has taken on a trillion dollars of student loan debt at the behest of the Federal government, Wall Street and older generations, only to graduate into a jobless economy. The generational contract has been broken, as the older generations will not or cannot leave the workforce due to their own financial missteps. Younger generations are being denied entry level positions, even as the older generations expect them to fund their retirements and healthcare. This presidential election will only exacerbate the anger, disappointment, bitterness and fury among the populace, no matter who wins.
Prophets & Nomads
Can generational theory predict who will win the presidential election? Probably not, but based upon historical precedent, during times of Crisis the country usually turns to a Prophet generation leader who provides a new vision and summons the moral authority to lead. This leader may not have the right vision or have the backing of the entire population, but he is not afraid to take bold action. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was despised by many, but he boldly led the country during the last Crisis. Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 election with only 39.8% of the popular vote, but he unflinchingly did whatever he thought was necessary to achieve victory and preserve the union. Prophet leaders like Samuel Adams and Benjamin Franklin offered the sense of moral urgency required to sustain the American Revolution. Strauss & Howe give a historical perspective on Prophet generations.
“Prophet generations are born after a great war or other crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-crisis era, come of age as narcissistic young crusaders of a spiritual awakening, cultivate principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerge as wise elders guiding another historical crisis. By virtue of this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age passion and their principled elder stewardship. Their principle endowments are often in the domain of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists, summoners of human sacrifice, and wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform; later in life, most came to be revered more for their inspiring words than for their grand deeds.” - The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

Barack Obama was born in 1961. According to the Strauss & Howe generational distinctions, this makes him an early Gen-Xer. His life story matches that of the Nomad archetype. His chaotic early life, confused upbringing by an array of elders, frenetic alienated early adulthood as a community organizer, and his rise to power through his public speaking talent and pragmatic ability to achieve his agenda is a blueprint for a Nomad. Mitt Romney was born in 1947 and grew up during the American High. His childhood was idyllic and privileged. His moral Mormon youth as a missionary eventually devolved into his yuppie “greed is good” career at Bain Capital acquiring companies, making them more efficient (firing Americans & hiring Asians), and spinning them off, while siphoning millions in fees. He has tried to convince Americans to vote for him, based upon his business acumen and moral lifestyle, as the cure for what ails America. With the continued downward spiral of societal mood, record low trust in Congress and 60% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track, the odds should favor the Prophet candidate. The 40% of Americans who think the country is on the right track are a tribute to our awful government run public education system or are smoking crack.
The Barack Obama presidency has many similarities to the one-term presidencies of Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan. Both men were overwhelmed by rapidly deteriorating events, an inability to understand the true nature of the Crisis, and failure to inspire the American people to rally behind a common cause. Both men drifted off into obscurity and are overwhelmingly acknowledged as two of the least successful presidents. The men who succeeded them are ranked by historians at the top of the list, even though they are both despised by more libertarian minded citizens as proponents of big government solutions and control. Libertarians will not be happy with developments over the next fifteen years. This Crisis is an era in which America’s corrupt social order will be torn down and reconstructed from the ground as a reaction to the unsustainable financial pyramid scheme which is an existential threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority will revive, cultural manifestation will find a community resolution, and citizens will begin to associate themselves as adherents of a larger cluster.
Barack Obama has fallen short as a Crisis leader, just as Buchanan and Hoover fell short. Buchanan also tried to maintain the status quo and not address the key issues of the day – secession and slavery. His handling of the financial Panic of 1857 led to annual deficits that exceeded 13% of GDP during his entire presidency. His legacy is one of failure and hesitation. Hoover was a technocrat with an engineering background who failed to recognize the extent of the suffering by the American people during the early stages of the Great Depression. It is a false storyline that he did not attempt to use the power of the Federal government to address the economic crisis. Federal spending increased by over 20% during his term and he was running a deficit when Roosevelt assumed power. Hoover was an activist president who began the public works programs that FDR expanded and dramatically increased taxes on the rich and corporations in 1932.
Obama inherited a plunging economic situation and proceeded to make choices that will make this Crisis far worse than it needed to be. He has failed miserably in addressing the core elements of this Crisis that were foreseen by Strauss and Howe over a decade before the initial spark in 2008. Debt, civic decay, rising wealth inequality due to the rise of our plutocracy, and global disorder are the underlying basis for this Crisis. Obama’s response was to run record deficits driving the national debt skyward, failing to address the unfunded entitlement liabilities that loom on the horizon, bowing down before the Wall Street mobsters and paying their ransom demands, layering on more complexity and unfunded healthcare liabilities to an already teetering government system, and extending our policing the world foreign policy at a cost of $1 trillion per year. A Crisis requires a bold leader who makes tough choices and leads. Obama has proven to not be that leader. Based on historical precedent and the rapidly deteriorating mood of the country, it would be logical for the country to select Romney, a Prophet generation leader.
No Escape
“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning
No matter who wins the election, there will be no turning back. It isn’t Morning in America anymore. It is more like Midnight in America on a bitterly cold dark February night as the gale force winds begin to gust, foretelling the approach of an epic winter blizzard. There are no easy solutions. The opportunity to alleviate the impact of this Crisis was during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and we made all the wrong choices. Now we will pay the price. An era of depression and violence will be ushered in by an economic calamity that will make 2008 look like a minor blip. The next president will still be presiding over a country divided 50%/50%, with little or no common ground on most of the key issues that must be confronted. But, as we’ve seen in previous Crisis periods, bold leadership and history making decisions did not require consensus or even majority support. Only 10% of the colonial population drove the American Revolution. Lincoln was despised by half the country and not exactly loved by everyone in the North. FDR’s popular support progressively declined during his four terms in office. It is the Fourth Turning events, not the nation, which elevates the person to the apex of power. The regeneracy of the nation will occur during the next presidential term.
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning
The Millenial generation is coming of age faced with the burdens of $1 trillion of student loan debt, a stagnant job market clogged by the Boomer generation that can’t afford to retire because they never got around to saving, ever increasing taxes to fund the promises made to their elders by politicians, and an unfunded entitlement liability of $100 trillion for healthcare and pension benefits they will never see. The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute. It will require courage, sacrifice, fortitude and a dramatic shift of our egocentric selfish culture to a culture of sustainability and caring about future generations. We’ve made many bad choices over the last few decades. Choices matter. These are the times that will try men’s souls. The choices we make as a nation over the next few years will determine whether this Fourth Turning ends in a renewal of our founding principles or tragedy. Glory or ruin – the choice is ours.
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning
The next stage of this Crisis is likely to be ignited by a downward spiral of societal trust caused by the next financial implosion, which is certain to occur. A world built upon debt, false promises, interconnected webs of deceitful derivatives, fiat currency backed only by the promises of lying politicians and captured central bankers, and a diminishing supply of easy to access natural resources, is hopelessly dependent upon the willful ignorance of the masses. As long as people want to be lied to rather than facing the truth, those in power can maintain the status quo. Once the jarring realization of reality overwhelms the propaganda and lies of the oligarchs, the battle for middle earth will begin. What will trigger the next phase of this Crisis? No one knows for sure, but based on the fault lines already evident, these are a possibility:
- The inevitable breakup of the European Union with the consequences of massive bank defaults in Europe triggering worldwide bank defaults as the interconnected trillions of derivatives are lit like a string of firecrackers.
- A sudden Greece like surge in interest rates on Japanese bonds results in a collapse of their debt ridden economic system, with reverberations throughout the world.
- The Middle East tinderbox explodes as Israel attacks Iran and the law of unintended consequences takes hold. Alliances and treaties would draw Turkey into war with Syria and Iran. Russia and China could side against the U.S. Iran and their vassals would unleash terrorist attacks and disruption of Middle Eastern oil would drive prices over $200 per barrel, crushing the American economy.
- A showdown on the debt ceiling and/or fiscal cliff results in a stock market crash, derailing the pitiful fledgling recovery created by Ben Bernanke’s QE to infinity measures.
- A tipping point is reached with regards to the amount of debt that can be accumulated by our Federal, State and Local governments. A cascade of defaults could lead to a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar and a surge in interest rates. The defaults and increased interest on the national debt could lead to mass depression or in a worst case scenario – hyperinflation.
- A large terrorist attack in one or more American cities would cause chaos, panic and fear, leading to more government control over our daily lives. This could trigger a counter response by those fed up with an overbearing government presence.
- A catastrophic natural disaster or series of natural disasters would reveal the fragile nature of our just in time economic system. A breakdown of our logistical and infrastructure systems would lead to chaos and mass hysteria as the citizens who believed their government leaders would keep them safe, secure, warm, and fed realized it was all a sham. Their leaders were in it for the power and riches, not looking out for the best interests of the common folk.
No one knows for sure what will trigger the next leg down during this Crisis, but I can guarantee you that things will not be getting better in the near future. Don’t believe the mainstream media or politicians who tell us life in the good old U.S. of A will be back to normal in the near future. And those who predict a long slow gentle decline of the American Empire that can be managed by the oligarchs are badly mistaken. That is not how things roll in a Fourth Turning. Transformative change, chaos, desperate measures, and total war will propel our nation through this cataclysmic saeculum and a positive outcome is not assured. An armed conflict – class war, sectional war, religious war, or war for oil – will be waged at some point and fought to the finish. Fourth Turning wars do not end inconclusively. Each Fourth Turning war has resulted in greater destruction and more horrendous numbers of human casualties. The trials and tribulations that await this nation over the next fifteen years will challenge every living generation to play their roles and bravely confront the tasks needed to reach a new High, just as their ancestors did.
“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning
For those who doubt generational theory and believe history is a linear path of human progress, I would point to the last week of chaos, disarray, government dysfunction, and misery of those who didn’t prepare for Superstorm Sandy, as a prelude to the worst of this Crisis. The lack of preparation by government officials and citizens, death, destruction, panic, anger, helplessness and realization of how fragile our system has become is a perfect analogy to our preparation for this Fourth Turning. The brittleness of our infrastructure and lack of redundancy in our systems has left us vulnerable to any large storm. Building mansions yards from a dangerous unpredictable sea is akin to allowing Wall Street bankers to create interconnected financial derivatives which will ultimately result in a great worldwide flood that will obliterate billions of wealth. Going decades without upgrading our power grid, transportation systems, or storm protection is akin to allowing our unfunded entitlement liabilities to accumulate to such an extreme level that it will be impossible to honor and the coming storm will swamp those depending on those promises. The lack of foresight by citizens in having food, water, and backup sources of power and heat in case of an emergency is akin to the millions of people that have lived the good life in debt up to their eyeballs while never saving for a rainy day or their retirement. When the rainy day arrives they panic and demand to be saved by an inept bureaucratic government.

Winter has arrived. The gathering storm is about to strike. Are you prepared?
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe - The Fourth Turning
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I lost it with the Barry-pulled-himself-up-by-his-bootstraps biography. His mom was CIA, Barry was CIA. Anyway how do these cycles have anything to do with Mitten's and Barry's string pullers?
Exactly! You are on your game today, Sir.
Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years.
The outlook for Wind Turbines looks better then?? Increased energy extraction will reduce windspeed too, so maybe a "win, win" situation!
Wind turbines can be heavy on bearing wear too - so a good Business Opportunity for Do Chen Rolling Bearings too!
Seems every cloud has a silver lining (for some that is!)
Exactly what Obummer might say, lol, good one, lets give them some MO MONEY and watch it also get swept away buy the wind to create these awesome wind catchers you speak of.
YouTube - Bishop Mitt: You Don't Fuck with the Jesus!
Wow. This author is a great example of the almost unlimited ability of people to see what they want to see.
Romney a prophet? Perhaps a "profit", but he has even less moral ground to lead than Obama does. If the Fourth Turning will unleash a wave of local community activism, who is more likely to be its leader, a corporate financial speculator or a community organizer?
My reading of the statement about a prophet was that the people would want one to lead them, not that anyone on the ballot actually fit the description. If things look bad enough and if Romney can do a better job than Obama of making himself out to be Moses for another generation lost in the wilderness, then he's probably in.
Sure he'll then proceed to rape the entire world once he is president, but that's beside the point isn't it.
"Prophet" is the term that Strauss and Howe use to describe the generational archetype whose current version is the Boomer generation.
Try reading the actual article instead of just the headline and you might make more informed comments.
Prophet Romney on a White Horse?
God help us all!!!!
The Prophet hath spoken: "Thou wilst wiretap the mosques and churches, but not the synagogues. And Father (Lucifer), please givest Thy humble servant the strength to drone the shit out of the brown people for the sacred blood sacrifice to Exxon, Shell, and BP. In the name of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and the BIS, Amen."
Is anyone scared yet?
Neither. You've been led to slaughter like the pied piper led the innocent of Goodrich to the cliff and destruction. Just like the Frogs leading UTC, they are agents of Darkness. Romney and Obama are agents of the Anti-Christ.
Thanks for signaling a Fourth Twisting post early in the article so I could save time not reading any of it.
WINTER IS COMING, BITCHEZ!
Fall, winter and spring are going to have a hard time deciding which one is actually in charge.
Be ready for a wild time.
Mythically speaking by creating such a Myth as the 4th turning when we buy into its message we psychologically give ourselves over to its message and actualise the realisation of its prophecy.This is important to know because this is how governments and powers herd populaces - by creating Myths. Myths like - -The American Dream, Liberty & Freedom etc
Think for yourself and conduct yourself in a way that aligns to your own beliefs and not others.
Extremely insightful!
They WANT us to want a prophet...a bit of predictive programming, anyone?
Hell I've read that many people in NYC were dumb enough to put gas into PLASTIC BAGS to carry it around... AND THEY WERE SMOKING.
Any big city like NYC... two weeks without electricity/government coming to save them will turn cannibalistic on itself... and I ain't joking. People were pulling guns and fighting each other over fucking GAS... now imagine FOOD.
Seems we are just one gas tank away from anarchy and canabalism. How fragile.....
Cocktails...
The Shadow Government just threw Mother Nature under the bus.
Three cheers for self-deception.
Missing from the sweeping prose of the Fourth Turning is the aspirations of the billions of younger people, world wide, who fully intend to live their lives throughout the 21 st century. The anticipated generational conflict will be a minor theme as progress is made in energy, medicine, technology, productivity, and quality of life.
You know what is really odd? The late Isac Assimov wrote about population dynamics and "turnings" in his " Foundation" series. I was recently reading a 1970 historic review by Mr. Asminov. In summary he believed that Industrialized countries continue to manipulate non-industrialized countries and make them satellite states. He used the North vs. South example, and he used the 13 colonies vs. Britain. Assimov believed that had New England not industrialized (steam engine / cotton Gin) then we would have become a satellite country to the British Monarchy even after the Revolutionary war had been won.
Its interesting to see how we have moved so much industrial capacity offshore. Like his foundation series, I wonder if our De-industrialization will eventually make us a vassal country. Perhaps we already are, and this turning is nothing more then figuring out we have been betrayed into servitude.
TRAITORS WITHIN THE GATES: CFR'S MILITARY MEMBERSHIP ROSTERhttp://chasvoice.blogspot.com/2011/12/cfrs-military-membership-roster.ht...
Some very good info...thanks! Gotta love a little CFR porn once in a while....scumbags!
I'll be your Huckleberry. Except then who will be my prophet? Fuck it let the machines take over.
This is definitely one of the best articles I've ever read on ZH. Beautifully sums up what is going on in our time. Thanks.
I am a devote follower of the Tylers! Praise the Durdens - can I get an Amen!
How about just an uptick?
"Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.”
Great. Just in time for my retirement. How will this affect my Social Security and Medicare benefits?
Sometime BEFORE 2025 might actually be tomorrow.
As in not around to collect, probably. Gate is a one syllable way of saying "bottleneck".
So is moving to Russia, which has a different set of generations, the answer?
YES! DING DING DING DING! We have a winner!
You kidding? They have the same set of generations. Their last great crisis was our last great crisis. The only difference between Russia and America is that they are a dictatorship disguised as communism and we are a dictatorship disguised as a democracy. Both countries lost their future when they lost their Republic to become a Democracy or a Comunist state.
Nomenklatura = Wall Street
However, in one way you might have some good twisted logic of sorts. The death by a scythe may be a better way to go than by a bayonet or starvation.
I read this site, cuz y'all seem to be ahead of the fold. After essentially taking Sandy and turning it into a vacation for us, my wife realized that our preparations were ahead of the fold. Now she wants to become a prepper. I am not going to start canning apricots, but we are taking measures. People are oblivious to these gathering storms of many different varieties from currency to climate(storms not change/calm down) to governmental ineptitude. Gubmint ain't gon' take care you! We are just getting started. Be prepared. It's coming. I feel it. Do you?
Don't CAN apricots....DRY them! Yum...
See!?!? This is why I'm here!
The "popular" vote dismissed this man as "unelectable"(?) Regardless, he brought about a dialogue that has grown wings and benefits the majority of ZH'ers and their families.
I planted the Ron Paul sign tonight to give the middle finger.
I voted third party.
I commend you "don't vote" types for your tenacity and view on "supporting facism" while you tolerate it.
It felt good to exercise one of the few remaining rights and throw a wrench. My Rottweiler is in the race!.
This society will reap what it has sewn no matter the headliner. Voting records are a hell of an indicator.
Thanks for the info and soapbox, ZH. I fat finger the pop-ups on purpose.
FTW!,
The Gooch
He's just deemed "unelectable" by the MSM and their mouthpieces. This eventually makes people believe it as they often have no other connection to reality than through their TVs and other MSM publications. They'll trust their natural instinct to go along with the group because that makes them feel secure.
This in turn makes the lies the MSM proclaimed an actual truth, so this is a deliberate psychlogical feedback loop that is inscrutable to detect when you don't follow the other hints life gives you; this and most people seem to be too busy with themselves to even care enough.
Kudos to you for writing in Ron Paul. I'd do it too if I was an American citizen. Even if it isn't reported in the MSM, the people in charge will definitely notice how more and more people give them the middle finger. It will annoy them. It will make them fear us.
I said I voted third party...
Nice to know the rest of the world likes liberty, though. It is truly a novel concept.
Also, "they" already fear us. "They" just underestimate us because their models lump us in with the happy meals.
Wild-cards in a house of cards.
1) Loon? (Interrogative)
2) Loon. (Declarative)
I'll go with #2 Bert ...
Time to go to the mattresses? Seems apropos given the context.
Depends on who goes to the mattress with you....or against your body, doesn't it?
Prophet > Racist Muslim Socialist BlackTrash
Each Fourth Turning war has resulted in greater destruction and more horrendous numbers of human casualties. The trials and tribulations that await this nation over the next fifteen years will challenge every living generation to play their roles and bravely confront the tasks needed to reach a new High, just as their ancestors did. ...
While I mostly agree with this basic theory, the problem is that the SPIRAL has been amplified by technologies that ARE billions, trillions, and quadrillions of times BIGGER than anything before in human history. A few minutes of war with weapons of mass destruction would make everything that happened during World War II look relatively trivial in comparison. It is goofy, Pollyannaish poppycock to recommend that we "bravely confront" the magnitude of the coming Fourth Turning! There is NO way to get prepared for the magnitude of the social storms which are coming. For sure, 99% are not, and the 1% who try to get prepared will therefore become the targets of the government, and all the rest of the people who did not. The government is going to get involved in genocidal world wars, and impose democidal martial law. The government itself is NOT going to help, but rather, the government itself will become the worst threat and enemy of the 1% who attempted to become prepared for the bad times. The government is going to represent the 99% who are not prepared, far more than the 1% who tried to get prepared. The government is "prepared" only for genocidal wars, and democidal martial law. The government is NOT prepared in any other better ways, and is not going to get "prepared" for anything else than to become by far the worst enemy of that tiny minorty who attempted to get prepared for the bad times. The coming bad times are going to be amplified by many orders of magnitude beyond anything in human history in the past! The is NOW an abundance of weapons of mass destruction, that literally are billions, trillions and quadrillions of times bigger than anything that human history has ever experienced before. Our entire civilization has a bias to believe that things are somehow not actually many, many orders of magnitude different, because our science and technology have made them that BIG!!!
Therefore, it is impossible to have anything remotely like a rational public debate about anything that matters. While I largely agreed with everything this article said, IT WAS GROSSLY UNDERSTATING HOW BAD THINGS ARE! The real world is controlled by frauds, backed by force, that have become many orders of magnitude greater than ever before in human history. It is precisely because we have rapidly built a global fiat money electronic fraud system, backed by nothing but the threat of weapons of mass destruction, that that system was able to overshoot so astronomically, into creating quadrillions of dollars worth of fiat money based gambling debts, because WHEN that system finally collapses into chaos, then the use of weapons of mass destruction will become the FORCE which attempts to continue to back up that FRAUD.
It is absolutely impossible to have any sane preparations for political systems which are based on traditional ideas of control through ignorance and fear running into their limits, AFTER those have been astronomically amplified by technological powers that go utterly off the charts of everything else throughout all of human history. It is absolutely impossible to have any sane social preparations for things that are enabled by progress in science that the overwhelming vast majority of people do NOT understand, and do NOT WANT to understand. Our politics is primarily the manifestation of professional liars tricking mainstream morons to continue to believe in the same old silly bullshit social stories. The bottom line is that the proportions of the social pyramid system, which has been developing since Neolithic civilization began, have become like absurd cartoons, which nevertheless, are our temporary "reality." We have pumped up the same old money/murder systems into an astronomically sized house of cards, of global electronic money, backed by the threat of atomic bombs. When that house of cards finally collapses, that collapse will be of equally awesome and overwhelming magnitudes as that house of cards of electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs!
Almost nobody could get "prepared" for how bad this could get. Those who try, through old fashioned guns and gold, etc., kinds of preparedness will probably find that the the vast majority of the other people, and especially the governments, are going to become their worst threats, for which it was impossible to ever actually get "prepared."
While there is no doubt that there are, theoretically, plenty of creative alternatives which are possible, in reality, the alternatives which are most necessary, namely alternative death controls, are so far, far, far off the map of our current political reality as to be practically impossible. Since we can not radically transform our militarism, so that our murder systems were radically transformed, in order that those changes could make it possible to integrate the other creative alternatives into an overall saner system of money, and debt controls, what we are ACTUALLY going to get is the runaway insanity of the current money/murder system going through psychotic breakdowns, for which there are NO possible preparations, because the magnitude of the collapse into chaos is as great as the house of cards built with electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs, ACTUALLY IS!
Personally, my attitude towards all of this, after several decades of serious worrying about runaway pumping up of fraud and force with science and technologies. that are many orders of magnitude bigger than everything before in human history, is to fucking give up, from a mental perspective. I am resigned to waiting and watching as the astronomically amplified social insanities finally go through psychotic breakdowns, for which it is IMPOSSIBLE to me to be prepared for, in any sane ways, because that REALITY IS WAY TOO INSANE!!! ... I just get by, one day at a time, waiting for the social house of cards that has been built to a size where it goes over the dark side of the moon, to finally collapse into chaos which will have genocidal and democidal proportions that will make it impossible for me, and almost everybody else, to survive through that, no matter what plans we had about how to be "prepared" for that ... Just like most other people, I can only hope that the established systems can continue to jerry rig themselves, for a while longer, with rubber band aids, patching together a system of frauds, backed by force, whose amplification to astronomical sized makes fixing those problems practically impossible, especially since it is obviously impossible to have any wide-spread saner public debates about any of these issues. Nobody knows what happens on the OTHER SIDE, after society does things like harness atomic energy, and crack the DNA code ... especially what we have actually done with those powers is use them to become billions and trillions and quadrillions of times "BETTER" at being dishonest, and backing that up with violence.
In that context, it is ludicrous to recommend that we should bravely confront the tasks needed, because the true size of the greater destruction and more horrendous numbers of human casualties, IS IN THE ORDERS OF MAGNITUDES OF BILLIONS, AND WOULD EVEN BE BIGGER, EXCEPT THAT THE REAL WORLD IS ACTUALLY NOT YET THAT BIG! The social pyramid systems, based on fraud and force, have been pumped up to be several times bigger than the entire planet Earth is! The collapse of that house of cards, which has been built like an absurd cartoon, to a size that goes up through the stratosphere, into outer space, is due to the REALITY of sciences and technologies which ONLY got applied to enable greater frauds, backed by greater threats of force, than anything else ever was, by several orders of magnitude!!!
In theory, we SHOULD revolutionize the basic paradigms of militarism, sufficient to incorporate an understanding of things like electronics and atomic power. However, that is NOT happening, while instead, those POWERS only get used by those who are the best professional liars, and immaculate hypocrites, to do even more of their same old INSANE money/murder system! It appears that the ONLY ways that human evolution can move forward, through this astonishing series of quantum leaps of progress in science and technologies, due to those sciences going through their own series of awesome breakthrough paradigm shifts, is for our human sciences to do that same things! However, the oldest and the best developed social science was warfare, and that then enabled the development of a combined money/murder system, which is global electronic frauds, backed by the threats of using atomic weapons, and so, AROUND AND AROUND AND AROUND WE GO ... with a social system which is automatically getting more and more totally insane every day, and which, because it is being controlled by those who are the best at being dishonest, who are able to fool enough of the people, enough of the time, with BULLSHIT, that society is NOT prepared for the real future, and can not possibly get "prepared" because that whole system is too terminally insane, due to it being built on the triumph of too much huge lies, backed by too much violence, for far too long!!! Therefore, the only real ways forward is through the astronomically amplified psychotic breakdowns of the established social systems, which is something that almost nobody can possibly get prepared for, and for which there is no kind of "bravery" that makes any sense.
SmokeyQuinn’s bitter diatribe and babbling blame game misses some important issues.
Not every country, (and the world has approximately 195 countries, he best look it up), had a baby boom after WW2. Yet much of the world is now facing all the same issues. Pretty narrow minded to blame the sorry state of world affairs on just one generation of people from just one country.
This mess is bigger than that…FAIL!
Once he smartens up a little maybe he’ll see that his bullshit blaming is preventing him from seeing the bigger picture of global theft, corruption, environmental degradation, and NAZI-corporate government takeover.
SmokeyQuinn might just try being a bit less obnoxiously arrogant.
Then he might be able to grasp what the real issues are.
That would be a good thing.
9/11 Is the Litmus Test
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVY-iQDO8pg
Yeah, other people posting comments on Zero Hedge have previously mentioned that Jim Quinn does not accept the idea that the events on 9/11/2001 were an inside job, false flag attack. I agree that one's opinion about 9/11 is a litmus test with respect to one's other political opinions. It is BECAUSE I believe that there is no reasonable doubt that 9/11 was an inside job, false flag attack, that I write stuff like my dismal comment above! After one understands the degree to which wars are based on deceits, and the financial collapse crises were deliberately driven, then the most probable futures are TRAGEDIES like what I outlined above in my comment. THERE IS A RUNAWAY FASCIST PLUTOCRACY JUGGERNAUT, AND THAT RUNAWAY SYSTEM CAN NOT TAKE THE "FOURTH TURNNING" WITHOUT CRASHING IN MORE EXTREME WAYS THAN WE CAN POSSIBLY IMAGINE!
Wow! I had to log in just to give you greenies on that epic rant that I largely agree with.
"....with a social system which is automatically getting more and more totally insane every day"
And I thought it got totally insane decades ago. I have felt for the longest time now that I am on a bad acid trip that will not end and gets weirder each minute. Everyday I am confronted with things that are soooooooooo surreal, I cannot believe it is reality. "Reality is an illusion, but a persistent one. " - Al E
I'll just go pop some corn now and smoke some more doob. BTW, love ur handle.
I don't know how old you are, but chances are almost 100% that at some point in the next 60 or 70 years, you're gonna die--via bus, cancer, armageddon or something else. Dying in some great civilization-collapsing firestorm would probably not be the most pleasant way to go, but it's still just death. RELAX. Do something you enjoy. Armageddon will take care of itself...
K-Wave Winter...brrrr.
Southern hemi?
The thing is....we are in deep shit. I know my neighbors and they are scary. Halloween tells you a lot about the people around you. One neighbor has a grave yard in front of his house. Really over the top with chain saw massacre and a very macabre death scenes. Coffins, decapitations, smoke, and of course him with the chainsaw in full effect.. It says something about the psyche.
I have the guy next to me. Nicest friendliest guy in the world. His kid shows up with a machete, and he laments that he missed killing a possum crossing the road. The father is telling me he kills wild pigs for sport and leaves them in the sun to rot and spread disease. The guy is armed to the teeth. What's the difference between a pig and a man in the sun during the 4th turning? A lot I hope.
Me... I am getting a little nervous with the 4th turning and neighbors that are scaring the shit out of me. My wife use to give me a hard time about prepping. After I pointed out the obvious neigborhood state of mind, lets just say she is having a change of heart or is that undies...
Someone I haven't spoken with in a few years called me yesterday to bust my balls about the election. I was like dude it doesn't matter this isn't even a swing state. He was so desperate, emotional, and generally berserk that he was yelling at me in a threatening tone. I know he is poor and he even admitted it was his fault that he is but the implication was that if I didn't vote right that bad things would happen to me. This is someone who has no clue how things are or how they really work or who his actual enemies are. Be afraid everyone, be very afraid.
gene pool needs chlorine
agreed. let darwin have his due.
you can put chlorine in it, but it's still going to be full of piss
OOOOOOHHHHHH YYYEEEEEEEEAAAAAHHHHHH!
Chlorine doesn't clean and get rid of the floating turds in American elite high society pool. The only thing that fixes turds is to replace the water and the turds. Chlorine is just like QE.
there is water at the bottom of the ocean...
Prove it. I haven't been there and haven't seen it. Although it seems logical.
These days, even that idea is a tough purchase for me.
Well, I probably didn't go into the level of detail that Strauss & Howe did in 1997, but back in 1994-5 I predicted that we were heading towards a society that was more authoritarian, more corporatist and therefore, more fascist. The timing of predictions is always difficult but we are certainly getting there; step-by-step.
After the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union, apart from a bunch of old commie die-hards trying to seize control of the EU and morph it into the EUSSR, most of the old comrades have deserted communism and switched across to their sister ideology of fascism which they find is equally rewarding to satisfy their craving/delusion for power and control.
The man in the frame for being the "prophet" (ho-ho) as far as Europe is concerned is one Mr Tony Blair. He's champing at the bit to become the first UNelected President of Europe. He almost certainly spends his free time sketching out the entertainment/party room in his new presidential plane.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgZx8bzN5Sg
ZeroRomney pictured with Franklin, Lincoln and Roosevelt! LOL! Our Prophet may be wandering around out there but (s)he sure isn't Mitt Romney. BTW "The Fourth Turning" may be a "neat" story but it is far from an easy/transparent read.
Kondtratiev Winter; been saying it for four years.
Don't get stuck in the fantasies of the past.
I don't know who will get elected and doubt it matters but I know this U.S.A. is not in any way the U.S.A. I was born into and the demographics are pointing toward a collision of races, genders, generations, religion/science, freedom/obeisance, and food, shelter/no food, no shelter.
And there's no preps for that shitstorm.
Not the same USA? Greedy fucks have been around since 1776. No different today.
The "prophet" is already here and functioning and you are "following" it now. The internet is blowing apart institutions, leveling playing fields, exposing malfeasance, educating the poor and unconnected, giving opportunities and choices, redefining our lives like nothing else in human history. And of course there is the porn. : p
I have never read more, learned more, communicated more, understood more, than now. Sometimes I can hardly keep up with myself. : )
Hail the prophet! Long live the internets!
I wish I could say I agreed with you. I started to think that way, but TPTB are crafty and diffusing it's power. Look at how they were able to marginalize Ron Paul, and how they build false narratives so that people look at groups like anonymous and wiki leaks with suspicion. Look at all the false flag attacks on financial institutions they commit so they can justify Internet restrictions later. I have great hope for the Internet butTPTB should never be underestimated.
Wakanda
interesting thought..
Wakanda, in merely a couple of paragraphs you have captured the real zeitgeist. With the internet we are our own "prophets". No need for any false prophets.
What we need now is courage to carry through our deepest inner convictions and understandings. It takes gonads of Tungsten to stand up to and reclaim our personal power from those jerks who would claim sovereignty over us. The freedom experienced on the internets reminds me of how much we have lost and what could possibly be.
Be YouR oWN PRoPHeTS FiSHeS!
The Second American Revolution, unfolding now in a gerrymandered voting district near you.
What education do the poor need in an 'american' nation? They exist to be farmed for the content of the 'american' middle class.
What kind of education can the Internet provide when it is such a nest of 'american' middle classers, who are the king class in 'americanism'?
As for the rest, that is finding comfort in the number of the group, well, that is what 'americans' do.
But the shallowness of anything internet is just shallow.
Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
Each of these 'great gates' marked an expansion in the scope and power of the US government. Their prophets were really advocates of government expansion.
The Barack Obama presidency has many similarities to the one-term presidencies of Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan.
To me, Obama seems more similar to FDR than to Hoover. Both Obama and FDR were elected after a big financial bubble had popped during the term or the previous president. Both enacted big new social programs which did little or nothing to help fix the economy. However FDR was re-elected with a huge landslide in 1936, while the 2012 election looks to be fairly close.
Neither Obama or Romney seems like a prophet to me, but I would have to say that Obama seems to have more expansive plans for expanding government than Romney.
I agree 100 percent. Like FDR he will engage us in a world war and 50 years from now he will be heralded by liberals as the savior of the nation. Obummer's role will be FDR and Bush will be Hoover. History doesn't repeat but...
a FALSE PROPHET
(odummer) has ALREADY ASS-U-ME-d command...he's unlikely to relinquish it after massive landslide losses on election day...mr. 666 will not let go...he's clinging to his power.
how will the people react? specially those that voted for him in 2008 and voted AGAINST him in 2012? stay tuned
the tea partiers will be super vindicated...they (and I) called a con a con...= odummer mr. 666
Will you admit your whole world view is wrong when Romney wins in a landslide and is seated in January?
The correct polls have shown him leading for months. I don't understand how people keep referring to the MSM polls. We know they sample with expreme bias and always show the Dem ahead....always!!!
I'll wait 'till the movie comes out.
It Has
It's me ..... I'm the prophet ... seriously
GOLD BITCHEZ!!!!!
Ok then, as you were.
I am of the mindset to not fight the current at this point.
The lack of preparation by government officials and citizens, death, destruction, panic, anger, helplessness and realization of how fragile our system has become is a perfect analogy to our preparation for this Fourth Turning.
No.
This is normal government performance. Hopefully we will eventually learn that politicians want so much to have power and money that they wil promise anything. They never have the skills needed to organize and do anything. At most we could let them fund things but as for the doing...unless someone gets paid to care, nothing gets done right, and no one in the government gets paid to care. Let's go department by department and assess, eliminate, downsize and,privatize. The government is like a drunk at an accident scene: "stand back I got this covered...but in the morning all is forgotten and when the emergency comes it is always death and disappointment. Look at Medicare, the eliminated all private insurance for the elderly and now the system in a couple of years away from being broke! How many examples do we need before we wise up?
There is nothing normal about our current economic situation.
bullshit. This happens every time! Every fiat dies this way. It just takes 4 generations of forgetting!
"The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute."
As quoted above I've seen the assertion from the article in many other forms, but have yet to see the assumptions and calculations that lead to the conclusion of mathematical inevitability of economic system collapse.
Without the definitions and math to back it up, all these statements are Bull Crap.
It may happen anyway.
Go figure..
You can only pull rabbits out of your own ass for a finite amount of time before the colon collapses.
And/Or have your central bank just monetize your bonds.
~Alice in Blunderland
But if you keep stuffing crap in, won't the colon keep expanding towards infinite length?
Tidee bowl man is in big trouble when that lets loose.
Wonder if that is the boating accident he lost his precious in? : )
Okay, let's say you lend/invest one Krügerrand coin for a promised interest of 3% per year. This will cause your investment to double every log1.03(200%) = 23.5 years.
You do know about the wheat grain legend telling how the chess board supposedly was invented, right?
After one epoch you'll have 2 coins, after two epochs you'll have 4 coins, ..., after only sixteen epochs have passed you'll already be owed nearly two metric tons of gold. The weight of our planet Earth is estimated at about 6×1024 kg = 2.12×1026 ounces. After log1.03(2.12×1026) = 2050 years = 87 epochs you should theoretically own value corresponding to the whole planet made of pure gold -- and everyone else who pursued the same strategy should as well. This would then continue further so that when the next epoch comes, everyone is entitled to two planets made of gold, and so on.
If this is too abstract, just suppose this wealth is kept within a familiy to the firstborn son, which makes it unnecessary for a single human to live for that amount of time. However, if you start with larger amounts of value like the world economy, and raise growth expectations to today's "realistic" levels, that same example would of course progress at an immensely faster rate.
The underlying problem is that a system based on infinitely continuing exponential growth is incommensurable to reality. However, current society depends on the promise that their money will work for them, that the economy and consumption will grow forever. To accomplish this, money supply will have to expand so that it becomes worth less, so that the benefactors of this Ponzi scheme can be paid what apparently seems to be due to them.
While this doesn't magically produce planets made of gold, it silently shifts wealth to those families who designed this to happen. They control much of Earth and people even feel okay about it because they bought it in a transaction with this (dishonest) money and everything seems normal.
In my opinion, the problem doesn't even lie in the exponential function itself, but in the fact people believe it to be true and don't plan for the possibility that the promise will be broken. This very problem lead to the endless bailouts and money printing, which will continue until trust in the system has been eroded so much that it'll cause disaster or revolution.
Economists are willfully ignoring that natural growth always runs on a logistic curve. Yes, the first half of it looks exactly like the exponential curve, and that's why extrapolating the past into the future doesn't work. These people are so personally invested in predicting the future that they'll be shocked when reality shows them otherwise.
I strongly suggest that you read more about this and then make up your own thoughts. ZH and the Internet is full of hints that can inspire to think about how the world works.
Arisu ,
Thanks for proposing a math theme for collapse. I appreciate someone who can figure as this provides a sounder point for good dialog.
What if we take that Rand loaned out and revise the interest to 0% or negative %?.
Log it out, that's what is happening now.
The point of my post was about the absurdity of the statement.
"The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute."
Absolute?
Mathematical?
Impossible?
While all these things may be true, the equation leading to define the argument and support the conclusion was not presented in such a way to be absolute, mathematical or impossible regarding certanty of economic system collapse.
Yelling louder will often get a point across to an audience who factors such volume into their reconing.
+1 to you for citing definitions and math.
BTW - I have toyed around with EXCEL trying to build models to provide proof of mathematical certanty of economic collapse using such sources as Modern Monetary Mechanics by the Federal Reserve, leveraging work by Mike Montage and his mathematically perfected economy as well as others.
I have not been able to prove it yet or find anyone else who can or has.
Until mathematical inevitibility is proved or the system does collapse, it is all suppositions.
Respectfully,
Mike McGspot
I agree with what you mean. For example, it's not really a mathematical impossibility that the standard of living we currently have is unsustainable. What the author of the article meant is that the way finances are handled cannot go on forever like this.
What I tried to convey with that earlier example is that Earth has finite resources, and finite energy input from the sun. At some point, it will have to be acknowledged that expansion of energy use, consumption, and even population, will have to slow down and eventually come to a halt.
So what has this to do with the financial system? Assume you are a billionaire here and now, and receive 3% interest on your capital, which would be a work-free yearly income of 30 million dollars for each billion you own. Now assume that you use that income to buy houses for 200k dollars each. This would allow "you" to build 150 houses per year without having done anything at all. Someone else has to work for your interest money and even build your houses too.
That means: more and more resources will have to be gathered, people have to work more and more, just to continue to fulfill your financial "rights". Mathematical wealth has no limits, but the real world does, so that's where the conflict lies. As long as people believe that mathematical wealth is real wealth, there continues to grow a disparity between the two, that eventually will become obvious for everyone to see -- such as in the "crisis" we are in now.
So considering your argument, it's probably more accurate to say that this course seems inevitable on a philosophical basis. Society as it happens now could very well be sustained if these concepts are understood and honestly taken into account in how life is planned and done. The problem just is that government tries to hide the problems. This makes it impossible for the common man to get hurt, realise what's wrong, and adapt his ways. He will continue to believe in what he is told until the crash against the wall happens without any chance left to hit the brake.
You have to realize that even things like pension funds are based on endless growth assumptions. People have trusted them to bring them wealth when they are old by mathematical magic. What needs to happen is that people learn to be more and more self-sufficient :).
Excellent reasoning and case example leading to a solid conclusion based on human nature supported with math.
I tip my hat to you !
I will repeat it to others citing you as the source with your permission.
All the best!
Of course; thanks for your kind words, sir!
Economic systems collapse is not been proven to be mathematically inevitable.
Funny. It locates the previous effort by this 'american' to demonstrate unsustainability by mathematical means.
You had me at
"The underlying problem is that a system based on infinitely continuing exponential growth is incommensurable to reality."
It's a good thing that Obama saved the US auto industry!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/06/us-americansuzukimotor-chapter...
What the FUCK retarded bullshit is this? The author should be shot.
"should be shot" is telling of your manipulated perspective on the world.
You do not agree with something, so they are worthy of nonliteral death? You don't even realize how controlled by TPTB you are.
The beauty of true freedom is that anyone can say whatever they want, and those that have some intelligence will be able to sort through the nonsense. Information isn't equal, but by the basic tenet of freedom, people have a right to say what they want to. If you cannot discern accuracy, it is your own fault.
Nothing but a bunch of little tyrants on the internet. Stop feeding your egos.
Couldn't have said it better. I wish more people would think like you. +1
I don't think it will happen. It is happening.
Has been since 9/11/2001, the spark on the strings to the firecrackers. This Fourth Turning was no surprise to the self proclaimed owners.
Good a time as any for legal pot in Colorado then. Cause we're going to need it out here when the just in time distribution of alcohol puts many into involuntary DTs.
SAIL - AWOLNATION
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaAWdljhD5o (4:09)
Thank goodness she lived.
;
Those numbers describing the net worth of individuals never take into account pensions. I know an awful lot of people who retired from government service at 57 and who now collect $140,000 a year from their pensions. To me, a pension like that raises the net worth to something like several million.
After all the middle class blathering, let's see if the herd doesn't show up to confer legitimacy on this government, again, and how long after the election it takes for the communist monkeys in Congress to start talking about mandatory voting, again.
That's it, place more of those Schweitzer controls in line, especially the "more efficient" models assembled by "more efficient" labor. If it's German, it has to be the best; after all, that's what we learned in WWII, right?
Which comes first, separation of charge, releasing energy from chemical bonds, or political discourse?
Why mandatory voting? it is useless in an 'american' nation as power is institutionalized.
Was this brought to us by Crossroads GPS? Hoo-boy.
The needed term is "Plutocronyistikakistocracy" ... it's a mouthful, but it captures what has taken over.
I am happy to think for all of us ! Instead of a Kyoto protocol .... how about a Freedom protocol where the signatories agree to limit their government spending to: Gob Spend = < 10 % GDP ! Monedas 1929 (This one's for Angus McPenis) Profetic Comedy World Tour
The problem with prophets is you cannot tell if they are just crazies or the real deal until what they predicted happen. But once it happend, you don't need the prediction.
John Brown was obviously a nutcase when he attacked Harpers Ferry.
Kinda parallels Osama Bin Lauden, 6 zealots with box cutters later, what lessons have been learned?
For me, the lesson was that my suspicions about the complete lack of ethics in highly placed people in our government were well grounded.
Before 9-1-1, I was deeply suspicious. Now I am now completely convinced that some of the people 'looking out for us' would happily kill each and every one of us if it fit with their political agenda.
I think GM was a trial balloon ! In supporting the stock prices they eventually could buy up more and more of the stock with fiat .... if prices are in free fall .... they get 'em on the cheap .... instant socialism .... the government owns a majority position in every public company ! They can also buy up all the loose gold for fiat .... then come after the rest !
This is a good article, but it's impossible to imagine this economic system will survive 20 years. Or even a year.
Trust in the gubmint. The can-kicking will continue for many decades.
The can gets heavier with each kick. It will soon become a foot-buster.
If you think we can change the sea level and change human nature .... you are, in fact, a Socialist !
Just trust in the authorities and all will be well. mkay?
Wanted to give this a real good read and found some of it interesting. I firmly believe that the conclusion and assertions you make are what is the general problem of the whole concept you're trying to illustrate: it's downright coo-coo to think that either dem or repub candidate can be the prophet generation leader. Not sure by your definition, if we even need the all mighty one to lead us and I certainly don't think it's Obamney. Some of the people you selected as the past leaders during a crisis I may find not as all high and mighty as you.
How biblical.. it is written and shall come to pass.. Hail the prophet Romney who can't seem to remember from day to day where he stands on any given issue of substance....Lead On to the promised land... The Cayman Islands.
I feel obliged to point out that W Bush also fits the profile of your Prophet archtype. He led the country over the fiscal event horizon of decreasing tax revenues and burgeoning malinvestment in wealth destroying wars. His administration set the path of the bus over the cliff... there can be no turning back, although Romney might look good with a bus driver's hat.
As I have said before. The prophet could easily be the anti-Christ or one of his agents.
Did you know...
That every time my dog barks, someone dies.
Yup, no escaping this fact. He barked yesterday...
Look in the paper...The obits are full of dead people.
Can't beat that for proof.
Your point being that mere coincidence does not prove causation. You are correct, but there is a bit more to this theory than mere coincidence. I'm not saying I buy it, but I find it interesting.
Interesting. It does seem that we face an existential crisis about every 80 years in this country. Now I am presented with a theory that matches that schedule. Perhaps this explains it.
I thought the Colonel was in command?
"There is a reason we forget the lessons of the past. Those who remember the lessons die off after 80 years."
...the author appears to be writing about a "we". Who constitutes the author's "we"?
It is possible to use [written] language to prevent the "lessons die off" symptom/problem, no?
It also annoys me immensely that people, especially public media, overuses "we". Most times I hear or read that, I silently think something like "fuck you, I am not part of your we".
We are keeping an eye on people like you.
We're Setting Sail
Appalling to place Romney (capitalist pig) with great Americans like Franklin, Lincoln and FDR. Delusional.
Great Americans like Lincoln and FDR? Delusional.
ben franklin lobbied with much force and threat to not have a president atop the executive.
Speaking of the lessons of history, it is gratifying that the Obama Administration, having benefitted in knowledge from the Katrina debacle (and the left having savaged Bush for poor and late response to the disaster) has done so very well with Sandy. All we can say is "Heckuva job, Barry."
112-year-old Pennsylvania apparel maker to close
One of the last U.S. apparel manufacturers of its kind is losing its shirt.
FesslerUSA had survived war and depression, free trade and foreign imports, producing millions of knitted garments from its base in eastern Pennsylvania. Five years ago, third-generation owner Walter Meck and his family were feeling so good about the company's prospects they doubled capacity, moving into a former pencil factory outside the small town of Orwigsburg.
They were still setting up shop in the new place when the Great Recession hit.
Sales plummeted. Financing dried up. And, after a long struggle to keep the manufacturer afloat, Meck has finally run out of time and money, still awaiting the strong economic rebound that never came. Production will shut down in early November, tossing 130 employees out of work and ending a run of nearly 113 years.
"We're not even on life support any more," the downcast CEO said in an interview on the floor of his cavernous factory, ominously quiet on a recent workday.
Meck blames the historic mill's demise on weak consumer spending, fresh competition from Asia, tighter credit standards that he said prevented Fessler from getting a desperately needed loan, and a lack of interest from private investors and potential buyers.
In Schuylkill County, an economically distressed region where good-paying jobs can be hard to come by, Fessler's workers are jittery.
Cutting room manager Gloria Bambrick, 57, has worked in the garment industry for 32 years. Her previous two employers also shut their doors. With Fessler set to join them, she's not sure what she will do.
"It's going to be tough for me to get a job because of my age," said Bambrick, who became the sole breadwinner for her stepdaughter and elderly mother after the recent death of her husband. "I am very strapped. I will need a good job."
Bemoaning the disappearance of so many textile jobs, she said: "I am an American girl and I wish more people would think like me and would have left the industry here and not send it overseas."
Indeed, it's a minor miracle that Fessler held on this long.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/112-year-old-pennsylvania-apparel-maker-close-1C6874050#/business/
Obama was just on MNF and he said, "It's not about winning the election, it's about delivering for the people that sent you".
Romney likes the Patriots, stone him.
Strauss and Howe are excellent sociologist. I have enjoyed their books for years. They don't so much as make prophecies as just analyze the characteristics of generations and logically think things through to the end. Something our government, central bank and banking system can't seem to do.
Interesting, but I don't think mittens is the guy. It may have been Ron Paul or could be Gary Johnson, but unlikely to be Romney.
Headlines: WilliamBanzai7 Predicts An Obama Landslide http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/11/headlines-willi... @williambanzai7
The tumult of the Consciousness Revolution was gone by 1984, as “Morning in America” pride and “greed is good” individualism slowly swept over the country, while a stagflation-driven malaise was replaced by a new mood of profound complacency and fluffy celebrity-circus indulgence. As years wore on, pessimism, along with a revived apathy, returned with a vengeance, growing by the year as budget deficits soared, politics grew shriller and more partisan, media spectacles abounded, and worries about world affairs resurfaced. Angry moral arguments were fueled by debates over gay rights, abortion, guns, school prayer, and immigration, all while public trust in government leveled to its lowest nadir in generatio
-- Nathaniel Ament-Stone
generational dynamics
ie were screwed
You may be screwed. New England is not. Good luck with your nihilism, pet of failed 20th century politics, worldwide.
We own our land, our water, and tell your Fed to fck off or die.
Can't. Fucking. Wait. Until 22Tril in debt! Fuck it! Let's hit 30!
YES WE CAN
YES WE CAN
YES WE CAN
I've got a5th turning- in my lower bowels. Like this sham of a story, the turtle is poking his head above the water but he stinks like rotten chinese food.
Did Strauss and Howe ever explain how , inspite of centuries of “turnings”. The vatican , the london banker swine and all their assorted child rapocrat friends remain unscathed ?
Or is that way beyond their dogmatic simplistic pseudo intellectual wankery ?
The puppeteers are not required to involve themselves in the plot of their plays.
Agreed to: facts and precepts
Guidance from author: zero
Comments from ZH readers: excellent
So, where am now: Awaiting that email with absentee ballot from NJ.
Applied for Sunday noon - now 11 PM on Monday
Sitting in Vermont with heat from my wood stove.
Left NJ one week ago on Sunday - n heat or electric in the Jersey casa.
Still same status in NJ.
Still waiting for government to act and send me my ballot.
S
Unfortunately, Charlton Heston is dead so he can't be the lone old man who stands up against the insanity. Oh well, maybe another old guy. Can't really remember everything that The 4th Turning was talking about.
We've all become soft and it's shameful.
Been reading journals left by my great great great great grandfather, a teen that immigrated from Scotland to the newly formed U.S. who fought in the war of 1812, worked as a fur trader for the North West Company before the merger with the Hudson's Bay Company, lived and traveled to the most remote fur trading forts all across Canada under the most extreme weather conditions, explored the most rugged terrain in New Caledonia (British Columbia) looking for an inland passage to the Arctic, and was eventually shot in the back of the head by the nephew of an Indian Chief in retribution for "casting a spell" on the Chief which supposedly lead to his death. Through his associations with other traders and natives of his time flowed their offspring, my lineage, and they were some of the toughest, bravest SOB's in more modern times. It is through my appreciation of their endurance and determination that makes me realize that today's society has so much and have made few sacrifices in exchange. These sacrifices were made by our forefathers and we under-appreciate the freedoms that they fought so hard to gain and we are so willing to give away by the false sense of security that our government will always be there in times of need and make us believe that we lack the abilities to do for ourselves. We could do it if we had to but we just chose not to, for who wants to live life like the one I just described, often cold, wet, hungry, enduring adverse weather and angry natives in the name of survival? We are shameful for our selfishness, our lack of appreciation for what we have, but mostly, what others worked so hard to achieve for us.
Group hug, everyone. Skateboarder got all nostalgic for hardship reading this. Y'know, they don't say "nothing builds character like hardship" for no reason. It's gotta be tough - you have to appreciate each day, not just expect it to have handed to you. The brainwashing worked guys - everyone's fucked up now.
kansas, Carry On Wayward Son
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQru7oCdYXA (5:23)
These threads weave a fabric suitable for a Randian pity party...
I am worried that Suicide hotline is going to light up come tomorrow night with more than a few denizens of the Hedge threatening to OD on meth, Zoloft and J.D.....