Europe's Scariest Chart Hits Peak Scariness Levels, And Rising

Tyler Durden's picture

Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer in Europe. Perhaps it is the anecdotal evidence we see in the now weekly riot-cams from Spain and Greece but just as we warned over a year ago, the truly scariest chart in Europe remains that of youth unemployment. The correlation (and causation) that runs from extreme levels of youth unemployment to general social unrest and anarchy is stunning throughout time (as we noted here and here). With Greek 'youth' unemployment jumping to a disheartening 58% (for August) - by far its highest ever - and Spain rising inexorably at 54.2%, the under-25 populations in these nations is truly set to burst (with overall unemployment rates of 25.4% and 25.5% respectively). Euro-zone youth unemployment overall has risen to 23.3% and while Greece jumped the most, Italy was close behind with a 1.2ppt rise to 35.1%. We are sure the austerity voted for last night by the politicians will 'help' - someone...

 

 

Data: Bloomberg and Greek Statistics Office

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GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They just bought up the gun treaty again.....thanks Bam Bam....if they're gonna attack us I'd say we should attack back.

 

Hell it's just in the Consitution....but that's been ripped to shreds.

forwardho's picture

Jumped right on that problem right quick didn't he? Almost laser focused you might say.

NEOSERF's picture

Remind me again...how did WWI and II start?

Alpha Dog Food's picture

Er, politicians getting really scared about what a bunch of young men might get up to with nothing to do all day  other than look for the right people to blame (so therefore need 'distracting' in case they tried to take power and/or wealth away from those who were holding it)?

virgilcaine's picture

The Greek bankster omelet with feta cheese, coming up.

Quinvarius's picture

Why in the fk are we torturing Greece like this?  What is the real purpose here?  Is it just to get their gold?  They don't have that much debt and they aren't doing anything the rest of Europe is not also doing.  This is just getting stupid.  There has to be something else going on.

Ghordius's picture

Quinvarious, why do you pose the question this way?

Greece - it's elected parliament for which we followed here in ZH the elections - wants to stay in the eurozone. Some 60% to 70% of the Greeks want to keep the EUR. and this means abiding to the rules of this club.

may I remember you that the Greek gov originally cheated on their numbers - thanks to the Squid - and was happily spending like a drunken sailor on what amounts to a credit card for which the others were half-liable.

the eurozone countries are - intelligently or stupidly as commenters go - on the way of balanced budgets. As an answer to the crisis, etc. See the European Fiscal Compact http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Fiscal_Compact.

Greece tells it's peers: pls, we want to stay in the club, we just have this or that to pay and we'll catch up.

meanwhile as long as those damn CDSs are still legal nobody knows how many banks go bankrupt again if Greece defaults

so the others (not only Germany) are helping. and the Greek gov has to find a way to balance the bloody budget

yes, it's painful, but it's fundamentally a Greek sovereign decision

but of course near all Keynesianists of this world want to picture this as a torture

Spastica Rex's picture

OK, so why is Europe so keen to have them stay? Seems like a bad deal. Seems really stupid.

Ghordius's picture

on a practical side there is this problem with the CDSs and a possible PR fallout

on a strategic side there is this thing between the UK and Russia about Greece going on since the times of Lord Byron and the Greek Independence from the Ottoman Empire. and the interest in Greece as a NATO partner

side remark: on a constitutional/legal side the eurozone and the EU are both clubs where any sovereign member can leave whenever it wants, or join if it conforms the parameters - as several countries are still preparing to

but the main thing is: Greece is important for europeans, on a very sentimental side. It's something like the cultural grandmother, or the crazy old aunt that nevertheless teached you how to read and write

when you set up a new confederative setup for several countries you have to allow for "the special case". hence patience with the other crazy aunt, the UK (which is still undecided and more of a drag than anything else) or for other sensibilities, including the "Greatness of France". and patience for the special needs of several others, including those who just emerged back from behind the Iron Courtain

but keen to have them stay? no. this is pure propaganda from several sources, including Rupert Murdoch's goons, the UK conservatives and libertarians, people who are looking for the next crash as a possibility to profit including several banks, lots of people who hate all things euro, etc. etc.

The Greek majority in their Parliament is keen to stay, they just showed it again with the last vote. And as long they are keen to stay it would be shameful not to help them

of course on the side there is a lot of corrupted deals and other garbage, but this is the answer about why - on the political will side

we might call it stupid and a bad deal, but it's based on a sentiment similar to family, which also leads to many economically "stupid" moves, including feeding ungrateful brats and crazy aged aunts

Spastica Rex's picture

Thanks.

Very interesting.

piliage's picture

Agree 100% with this. The problem is they can't afford it long term. There is no good reason for them to be tied to the same currency as Germany. It makes no economic sense for them at all, aside from a point of pure hubris.

While they are trying to be part of the big EU experiment, people are literally starving on the street while they need to devalue their economy via wage and asset deflation, and productivity increases (like we'll ever see the latter).

I understand the solidarity argument, but really, it is literally destroying the fabric of Greece.

Ghordius's picture

this is the same argument against gold. the basic question is: balanced budget? Yes or No?

a lot has been written on "the big EU experiment", but funnily the eurozone is a separate club. they could leave the EUR and/or default (and still use the EUR, informally, as several small countries in europe do) and still be part of the EU

and there is the not-so-small-thing about Greek Pride (sounds nicer than hubris)

and a lot is being reported on "people literally starving on the street" but note that the Greek Parliament just voted 168 (of 300) for austerity.

propaganda about starvation or "do the elected representatives know better"?

remember that "the fabric of Greece" is a different matter from the society you encounter in any AngloSphere country, be it the US or any Commonwealth country.

Greece is a nation indipendently from the current status of their society, due to the unique culture, language and history. their common ties are different

Ghordius's picture

put it in a different way: Greece suffers from deflation. some pundits say 30%. now if they had the Drachma, they could inflate it by 30%.

or they could have their labour market adjust. This means all paychecks (and social security checks) would have to go down by 30%.

All in all Greeks are behaving as all the other continental europeans would do: they are more scared of inflation than deflation and are quite confident that eventually the EUR will inflate anyway

piliage's picture

But the problem of having a currency that is not fundamentally aligned to your economy will NEVER go away for Greece. Sure, they can deflate, but eventually there will come a time when the productivity will need to align with Germany in order for the interest rates to make economic sense for the Greek economy.

You and I may disagree, but I do not ever see that day occurring, regardless of how much they deflate, as I never see the Greeks competing head-on with Germany long term. There will always be an economic disequilibrium between Germany and Greece that will require a divergent monetary policy.

Greece is only the most obvious example, but Italy, Spain, and Portugal are in the same situation.

The US manages this situation by having a transfer union. For the last 50 years, California was subsidizing a lot of other US economic activity. I just don't see the Germans standing up for this.

As for Greek politicians, I may be cynical, but I see them as pigs at the trough, sucking up Germany's billions.

Quinvarius's picture

On the most basic level, we have paper money instead of gold so we can print our way out of these problems.  That is the system of rules we have chosen.  The human suffering being imposed here is largely sadism.  This is a small problem, easily solved by printing as the system was designed to solve these problems, being enflamed to unnatural size.

It is not that I am a Keynesian.  I just recognize we use monopoly money and not gold.  There is no point to pretending the Euro or the USD have real value.  The game has rules.

I am not sure who is more disgusting.  The Greek government for not defaulting or the global banking system for not just forgiving the debt.  The debt is never going to get paid.  So lets end this and let Greece start over from zero.

Greece can make a bunch of promises about budget reform again, just like all the other broke dick nations on the planet.  Then in 20 years they can default again.  That is just the way it works when you use vapor money. 

Ghordius's picture

I'm not pretending that the EUR is something else than a fiat currency

but the "laws of economics", or, better, of markets make any gold backed currency a losing proposition as long as there is a fiat global reserve currency - bad money drives good money away

please remember that all USD outside America were covered by gold until 1968, one to one, one million bucks = one ton of gold

after August 1971 we all knew where this would lead - and that it would take at least twenty years to go there, particularly after the other trick with gold from 1974 (US legalization) to 1980 (spike and crash)

the primary point of the EU was and is still to prepare for a possible trade war, the secondary to provide "continental size" solutions

the primary point of the eurozone is to prepare for a possible currency war or the return of gold

and you can't have gold without balanced budgets - hence the Fiscal Compact

all defensive moves, like prepping on continental size

the Greek debt is not the issue. it's the habit of balancing the budget that is the issue. and the Greeks know this

------------

btw CHS was mentioning 14% of Greek tax revenues for debt service. the high water mark is 20%, no country was ever expected to pay more since very, very long

I agree that it's a disgusting situation on several sides, but don't forget that sovereigns are supposed to be the "ultimate grown-ups", and Greece does not want to default and does not want to leave the EUR Club

slackrabbit's picture

the banks want the gold.

which the firms short, but the bank managers go long.

then they let it all crash....who then makes the rules (if they don't already)?

Quinvarius's picture

Actually, that is pretty much what I think is going on too.  The easy cure for the entire global mess is to push gold up well over 10k an ounce, where it actually belongs, so everyone has an asset to back their crap debt.  But naturally, the bankers need their gold back first, and then some.

Ghordius's picture

backing the USD with gold - independently from the price - would mean losing the so-called Exorbitant Privilege

it would lead to either sovereing bankrupcies or balanced budgets and fiscal conservativism - something not everybody is keen to achieve

finger pointing to several parties including the MegaBanks of this world

Notarocketscientist's picture

we are torturing the greeks so that the bond and shareholders of banks don't take a loss on their investments.  simple as that

Alpha Dog Food's picture

And watch that orange French line go on up too. At least it won't have to change direction.

insanelysane's picture

2016 Olympics in RIO will be great fun as Team Rioting and Individual Rioting events are added and will be held in the city's slums.

Early betting has Greece winning the gold, London rioters taking silver, and Egypt's Team Arab Spring getting the bronze.  Occupy Wall Street was DQd as they all moved to Colorado to smoke weed and didn't pass the drug tests.  

Joe A's picture

We will all be out of a job soon.

semperfi's picture

No problem. We got big daddy Barak to take care of us.  Get yo EBT, O-care, O-phone, O-disability check, 16 oz mt dew - all good.

Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

And Cue the Fascists leader who will emerge to scapegoat the elderly and older people in general in three two one.

Stuck on Zero's picture

Wait a minute.  Demographic scare mongers tell us that the youth are needed to work double hard to care for the elderly.  And if that isn't true can't the EU drum up a war with someone and send them all off to be slaughtered?

 

Gandalf6900's picture

Funny thing is....the People actually do have the power, but are scared to use it-

Its like being robbed by a thief in your house while you're holding a gun, but too scared to fire...

AMAZING

Spastica Rex's picture

It's not just fear stopping Americans, it's also greed.

FEAR and DESIRE

Chingadera's picture

The good news is that the chocolate ration has been increased from 4 ounces to 2 ounces per week. 

 

Hobbleknee's picture

The chart needs more shades of blue to make it even harder to read.

Zero Govt's picture

yep, greens and reds too, pretty darn near impossible to allocate the colours to the countries and then find/differentiate them on the chart!

the one take-away from the chartology however is the more educated (cough) the students the less likely they are to find jobs

another State turkey factory malinvesting, mis-allocating resources and no ability to match supply with demand (same as it ever was)

"Don't stop the production line, we've got no demand for the end-product but we're just going to churn them out anyway ...channel stuffing students, it's a twist on the all-the-rage new concept at General Motors!!"

Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

 

See the chart in super large version:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/11/20121108_EUunemp.png

If U click on Tyler's charts, they usually open separately.

 

eddiebe's picture

The causes of all this unemployment in the 'developed world' are quite simple: Technology and relatively cheap oil and outsoucing to the developing countries. Remedies are simple enough, but are politically difficult to implement, because the gravy train for the '1%' is just too sweet to abandon.

Miss Expectations's picture

This is why the whole FORWARD meme never resonated with me.

ebworthen's picture

Well done.

"Vorwarts" indeed.

Wrapped in the stars and stripes no doubt.

Sweet Chicken's picture

It is becoming increasingly clear that just like the book/movie Fightclub, the banks and credit institutions all need to be brought to the ground and turned to dust. All debt needs to be wiped away and those responsible for this mess need to be hung and their property confiscated. Dismantle their empires.

covert's picture

communism is very popular in europe carl marx would love it.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

 

Zero Govt's picture

Marx is 'winning' at the moment in Europe, America and Japan ..the ignorant theories that State can run anything either 'fairly' or for societies good health

stealing (taxing) productive people to prop up lazy, corrupt, ignorant toerags in Govt is just theft dressed up as socio-economic claptrap

expecting the parasitical turkeys of Govt to vote for Christmas isn't even worth hoping for

Crash & Burn, that'll teach 'em coz no fucker else stands a chance

Sans-culottes's picture

The Greek and Spanish youth are all employed..."the unemployed" became rioters. There labor statistic fudgepacking with lots of BS and PhDs

Sudden Debt's picture

maybe people are realizing that older employees are more productive and hold the knowledge in a company :)

Zero Govt's picture

no chance you're over 45 and skewed the survey results???

;)

Zero Govt's picture

"Things are rather unsurprisingly going from worse to worserer.."

Go Long 'er' ...there's going to be massive demand for those 2 letters.. you'll be raking it in over the next few years

Crabshacker's picture

Shouldn't we be at worsererererererererer..er

Radical Marijuana's picture

Since symbols preceed realities, we are looking at the mass unemployment preceeding the mass murders.

forwardho's picture

This situation has occured multiple times in past. Check global employment pre-1944, also in between continental wars in europe. A vast number of untrained young men. Enter the "new" crusades, and off they go to die for God and country.

dickizinya's picture

They'll never get jobs wearing those cheezy euro warm up suits.

 

jumpstyle!