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Summing It All Up...

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Excerpted from "Ignorance by Consensus" posted by at FEASTA,

But, very briefly and acknowledging some contention, the conditions for concern might be summarized as follows.

 

We are trying to comprehend our world within the world-views and economic orthodoxies developed over an extra-ordinary, two-hundred year period of compound economic growth. This growth was coincident with increasing wealth, complexity and globalized integration. Part of our dominant consensus is that this trend will continue. Much of what is important to us, how we live, our expectations, what we value and hold dear, was shaped by this process. And we, the global 10%, have done well out of it.

 

The fringe view is that this growth is over – we are at the limits to growth, now. At issue is the stability of the globalized economy. We are moving into a deepening global deflationary depression, interspersed with dangerous and possibly irreversible shocks to the systems that support our basic welfare. We will lose much of what we take for granted and things we have come to call our own. We are entering an era of real danger and unpredictability.

 

This is because we are at an historic point of convergence. Firstly, we have reached the limit in the credit backing of our financial, monetary and banking system. We are at the same time hitting profoundly destabilizing ecological limits preeminent at this time is that we are almost certainly at the peak of global oil and food production. Put another way, we are at the limits of the system of trust and solvency that underpins the trade upon which we depend. We are at the limits of the least substitutable energy source that, by the laws of physics, is necessary for economic maintenance and growth. We are at the limits of our most fundamental human sustenance. They are the three most critical structural pillars of the globalized economy. Like a three-legged stool, the whole system can become destabilized by the buckling of just one.

 

In addition, and almost completely unacknowledged is that the changing nature of the globalized economy – increasing integration, complexity, speed and inter-dependence – has made us very much more vulnerable to this convergence. Further, such complexity makes it very difficult, or even dangerous to try and ‘fix’ its parts.

 

If we were to acknowledge such a fringe view we would be urgently preparing for profound change – for when real change is forced upon us we may have much less room for manoeuvre. We would be embracing austerity because of its inevitability, and in doing so, transform it. From top to bottom, we would be working on our food security, the resilience of critical services such as sanitation, monetary systems, governance, and re-working work. We would have begun the personal and collective psychological processes that might allow us avoid some of our species most destructive passions that can emerge in a time of crisis, and instead use it as a source of creative and positive change.

 

Of course, no detailed explanation for such a fringe view has been provided here. For most though, none is needed. They already know this view is nonsense. Why worry, it’s a fringe view… why with shale gas, technology, markets, stopping austerity, green growth, changing the monetary system, getting rid of the ‘wrong’ people….so many options! Anyway haven’t people been saying such stuff since the time of Malthus, and they’re still wrong! Aren’t the experts in control?! But an economist said…! Quite….quite.

 


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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Get rid of all paper assets, buy gold and silver,move to the country,arm yourself,store as much food and water and gas as you can,and pray. At least you will be less fucked than most.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

It's starting to look like we'll achieve a "paperless society" after all!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Fishhawk
Fishhawk's picture

As long as the moneyed elite try to write their own version of directed history, which conflicts with natural law and real physical limits, we will remain on a collision course with reality.  This means that the largest players now controlling the key resources are refusing to make the changes that would avoid the looming catastrophe.  Politics interferes with the needed adjustments, preventing us as a collective society from moving towards sustainable solutions.  Individuals and small group enterprises can see this conflict between sustainable strategies and unsustainable resources, but they are ineffective in bringing about real policy change, as the toadies for the moneyed elite are paid not to see it, and the elite are unwilling to accept that the game is approaching it requisite ending. Foresight includes accepting possible future scenarios different from the status quo, and unfortunately being rich is not conclusive evidence of intelligence; more often it merely demonstrates a complete lack of morals and concern for others.  

Fishhawk

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Errol
Errol's picture

Fishhawk, you wrote

"Politics interferes with the needed adjustments, preventing us as a collective society from moving towards sustainable solutions."

It seems to me that you have it backwards.  Here's an example: at one point the US population accidentally elected a president who had worked in TWO occupations that require conformance with reality - engineering and farming.  He patiently explained to Americans roughly what this article outlines, and suggested rational first steps to making a transition while the resources to do so still existed.

The voters' response?  They threw him out of office at the first opportunity, and put in his place the man who championed the strategy of borrowing however much money is necessary to maintain the appearance of prosperity.  Every politician since has taken the lesson of Jimmy and Ronnie to heart: If you want to lose an election, tell the electorate the truth!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"The secret plan is that we're going to keep doing exactly what we've been doing, for as long as we can."

- Daniel Quinn, in, "What a Way To Go"

There is no "other way."  That is, this current way is the ONLY way that they can stay lifted from the masses, until, that is, it all collapses (why volunteer to jump down amongst the dregs before you're forced?).  Humans being humans I cannot help but believe that their strategies are much different than ours here (the only difference is that they have MORE power and MORE money): folks here (and I am not excluded) are stashing materials and "wealth," expecting things to blow up; not at all different than those at the "next level up."

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:28 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Less is MOAR..............

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment Antifederalist
Antifederalist's picture

Malthus anyone?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:33 | Link to Comment PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

Flip that stool upside down and have a seat!

Oh wait... they already fucked us...

Oh well, enjoy it anyway.

/sarc

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That was " make my day" good! :D   No s/ needed.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment Bicycles and Beer
Bicycles and Beer's picture

brewing beer is a lot like printing money..

except you cant eat beer... err.

 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:12 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

just rent it ;-)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Solar Stills?  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_still

   Aquifer hunting.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

booooring. peak oil, peak food, peak peaks

give me a break. have you ever flown over the US? have you ever driven anywhere? open your eyes there is plenty of ways tons more food can be grown and tons of ways people will can consume less (eg stop subsidizing MDA the SUPER MARKET TO THE WORLD) 

nat gas, uranium, thorium and human ingenuity and on and on . The only thing that can stop progress is people's fated philosophy of altruism enacted through government decree.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

I find it interesting that youre an optimist and in the same optimistic post you identify the reason why your optimism is wrong.

"The only thing that can stop progress is people's fated philosophy of altruism enacted through government decree."

So, basically, progress will be stopped because there is no way to prevent altruism enacted through government decree.

The Sun will come up tomorrow, but you and I might be dead and will not see it.  Get it? 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

People can change their philosophy at any time. Altruism is a choice. If they change their philosophy then they will choose different representatives and so on. You get the government you deserve.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Oh, great!  Let's make sure we have the best "representatives" so that we can all sit together and hold hands as we die of starvation!

Don't you get it that govt doesn't produce anything?

Don't you get it that the necessities in life are: Food, Shelter and Water?  It doesn't read: Food, Shelter, Water  and [Great] Representatives!

Yeah, sure, "representatives" are great for helping us get needed resources, by either yanking it out of some other taxing district, or by engaging us in wars to kill others for it.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

The hardest thing about joining the Ron Paul movement was realizing how dumb we have all been all along. Then further, how dumb so many people still remain even after you told them 5 years ago what was going to happen and now it is, they still read Krugman, the nerve.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

We? Some people have understood the concept of the free market and liberty for a very long time. I've been a Libertarian since 8th grade. But people said I was born 30 years old.

I said the internet was an investment bubble in 1997, housing bullshit in 2004, bullshit oil bubble, and all the rest. The bubbles were easy to spot and back then I didn't have any money to profit off them.

I still won't invest because I don't believe in unearned wealth. I'd tax capital gains above $100k at 95% because there is no need for a public stock market in a functioning free market economy. The stock market has and will always be nothing but a Ponzi scheme.

We never needed futures trading to have a functioning exchange of commodities. Futures only sped up the demise of the private farmer and local operators.

The greatest enemy of a free people is the stock market and the governments bought off by it.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I appreciate libertarianism, but...

"The greatest enemy of a free people is the stock market and the governments bought off by it."

Can someone point out where there's ever been totally "free people?"

When resources get increasingly scarce you get what we're seeing now.

Those in "charge," rightly or wrongly, see themselves in charge.  POWER has a proclivity for paranoia (some is likely warranted).  Power structures protect power structures.  The US was founded as a power structure, headed by people in power.

The US has NEVER been about "free people."  The Declaration of Independence was about telling the British that they were getting cut out of the profit pie.  The US Constitution was a motivational document enticing people to go and conquer the area now known as the United States of America.  Commoners were NEVER "We the people" (just look at how much disdain people here have of the general populace- true democracy would be horrible, but let's not kid ourselves that a representative democracy actually represents the common person).

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

If nobody responded to this, would I care?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Now you'll never know.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Two women approached US President Calvin Coolidge at a party. Coolidge was famous for not saying much.

One woman said to Coolidge, "Mr President, I bet my friend here some money, that I could get you to say more than two words."

Coolidge replied, "You lose."

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

In a finite world with limited resources, why has there been so much precious capital and resources spent on people that are unable to survive on their own?

Doesnt it seem counter productive to anyone else to keep feeding and treating people that are non viable on their own?

I seriously wonder if the human species is not a defective speices with self destruction written into our genetic make up.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Hmmm,? We wiped out every "opponent" excluding " Mother Nature" for the last 50 thousand years...

  That is just a "ass wipe" in time, but Dinosaurs didn't go to the Moon, or take pictures from Mars.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

The last opponent to wipe out will be ourselves.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I respect your opinion." i think "that we are paying the price of our 'fore-fathers/mothers'. (1890-1930)

Excuse the pro-noun spelling...

  if you would care to imbibe, I'm all ears...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

When it comes to imbibing, I prefer 18 year old McCallan....neat.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 You actually waste your time? You actually spent "$", on my comments?   What is your favorite charity?

  Been posting on Z/H for 2 years, and "NEVER" researched another poster...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Engrish isnt exacry your fwerst rangrij is it?

My favorite charity is me.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm " grammatically charged". rest assured the previous post will be 'corrected', young-ling/

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I'm pretty certain that viri will continue...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Everybody is capable of doing something to earn their keep. It's not their fault the govt throws free money at them. Give me $1.44 for nothing and I'll grow the economy by $1. It's a win win.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

We haven't hit the limit at all. Drop rates to zero, as in 0, and keep printing. Then go negative rates. Then have the govt hand every citizen a min income, sorry credit, for the year. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:58 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

LOL, prices keep increasing as printing continues. Minimum income citizen becomes mad because they can't afford food price increases. So riots occur. Both public unions and minimum citizen requires more government money since they will riot. Higher taxes to prevent riots. More citizens and businesses become minimum citizen due to higher taxes. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Even the head of the CIA's too stoopid to get away with poontang on the sneak...the end has just got to be near.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Inignort
Inignort's picture

Yeah, doom and gloom. 

I wonder if Elmo fisted anyone today?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"The fringe view is that this growth is over – we are at the limits to growth, now. "

Forgive me but do the "peak progress" guys just happen to be unproductive whining parasite types? ...yunno, like acadmics, eco-loons and other worthless toerags that have never been productive in their lives


"..we are almost certainly at the peak of global oil and food production."

Peak obesity numbers have just past peak mal-nourished. If the 3rd World adopted modern agriculture they could stuff themselves silly too.

 

David Korowicz, if anyone has found a consensus in ignorance you most certainly have. What's your job, i'm guessing pushing paper around a desk all day, every day?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

Turn that stool unpside down and Barney Frank will take a seat.  

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Barney certainly needs something up his arse, i was thinking more pitchforked shaped than he'd like

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

no peak oil, peak food.

 

peak government, peak debt.

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

Embracing austerity is the act of a pussy. Grow some balls and prosecute those responsible for the financial fraud first. The willingness to be pushed over like that is disgusting.

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Never going to happen as long as the fraudsters hold the dicks of everyone capable of prosecuting them.

The only answer left is citizen justice.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

I can't make myself BTFD this time............

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:16 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I've just about reached my limit on 15% increases in the price of retail gas in one day in NE Ohio.

Yesterday $3.05, today $3.59.

Gasoline has been fluctuating between $3.00 and $3.69 every day for the past two weeks. Where is the demand based model for that?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

1. Buy gas at $3

2. ?

3. profit

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:07 | Link to Comment Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

There is an "It's always sunny in Philadelphia" episode about that.  Their #2, ws to fill barrels with gasoline and #3 was selling it on street corners.  Didn't work out well for them, but then they are pretty retarded.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Don't sweat it --- it's merely transitory.

Besides which, you are lying --- and I have the BLS statistics to show that gasoline only costs 20% more today than it did ten years ago.  Who are you going to believe, the government or your own lying eyes?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

My new invention is Bernankegoggles

When you put them on, prices immedialty revert back to 2000 levels. The $20s in your wallet look like $10s. You think you are actually paying less, but in reality you are paying more.

It even works when you view your bank account on a computer. When it shows negative $2k, you see it as $10k in the positive allowing you to g out and spend more.

GENIOUS!!!!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

If we were even close to peak food production, a tomato would cost $10 and we wouldn't be paying farmers not to produce.

I'm so tired of overpopulation alarmists that obviously haven't traveled beyond the suburbs to discover that most of the world is undeveloped.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I would love to see your population model. I do some recreational farming, and slopes are better yields for many crops.

   Over population is Centuries away, unless you have Fukishima Fucktards, taking naturally occuring elements and "super charging them"!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Actually, the earth is almost certainly already overpopulated today in any long-term sense, as the world's available cropland and topsoil, which are being degraded and lost due to monoculture and the lack of fallow-period regeneration (not to mention "development" such as the spread of urban areas), will simply not be able to sustain even current production levels for much longer, much less the 20-40% greater yields that will be demanded in 20 or 30 years at current population growth levels.  And this does not even take into account the rising cost (quite a bit above "inflation") of fertilizers, or the rising cost of the petroleum which fuels modern industrial agriculture.

Overpopulation is not about having enough space for people, it is about sustainability, and most particularly about food production.  The Mayans and Easter Islanders learned that lesson to their own great detriment.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:59 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm busy AKAK. The people need the "real figures".   U- get it!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:05 | Link to Comment samsara
samsara's picture

Akak,
The yeast will say that "The dish is only half full" with one minute till noon, Not caring that they double every minute. The are programmed not to see it coming.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:20 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

When so few consume so much and so many go without 'sustainability' is merely lunch talk between overfed academics.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

Millions upon millions of latent BLM land that may eventually be sold off to the private sector to help pay off the debt. Those private landowners won't be sitting on it as the government does, I assure you.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Doors, 'Strange Days'

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Cramers , "Bull Shit Fund" is melting. Bill Gates can't stand Cramer!

   FUCK YOU, gently...    Jimmy Cramer<

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

I can't stand bill Gates, so where's that leave me?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Don't worry Knuckles, Your EGO is intact! ;-)

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Used to  use that stool and see clearly out the window standing tall,

but now we're hanging from the window sill just trying not to fall.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I just bought some Micro Soft. Cramer is buying Boeing? Their orders are all ready in? The stock is priced in already.

  Cramer you are a "Shrinkie Dink"!

   Jimmy) 787 delivery is barely schedule, 747-8 is on schedule?

' Total delivery stable price is "still under budget after lease contracts'

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:24 | Link to Comment fuu
Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Apparently, this woman was passionate about the US's chances post-election: "AZ woman runs over husband for not voting; 911 call released"

http://www.kpho.com/story/20077801/police-gilbert-woman-runs-over-husban...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment DeficitAlchemist
DeficitAlchemist's picture

We are at limits of the financial and debt ponzi system... that doesn't automatically translate to limit of food production, limit on energy and everything else limit up.. sensationalist prose..

 

Solar has long way to go, as will tidal for energy.. today in UK, all talk is how US will become exporter of Gas and oil in the mid 2025's.

 

Technology will increase density of harvests as and when we seem we have no way out..

 

All a bit too 'no hop we all gonna die' all from a major financial reset and related social turmoil which like all things will eventual pass.. till the next time some 60 years later in the supercycle when the next generation of fools must learn the same lesson..

For us fringe media early(late?) visionaries of the wave due to swamp us, we are only undermined by wholeslae mutitude calamity doom mongering.. have we run out of clear air and cockroaches in time for the nuclear detonations all whist the financial system fails..

 

The latter will be crap enough not to warrant the co-ordinated calamities  both natural and otherwise all coinciding with 'reset' away from fantasy economics.. credibility detsroying doom mongering on too many fronts for me..

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 02:24 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

 

"Technology will increase density of harvests as and when we seem we have no way out.."

No, you're going to die.  Sorry.  But it was a great story :-)  P.S. reversion to the mean.

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

THE END IS NEAR.  Where did i put my sandwich boards?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

The Beginning is Near!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 09:04 | Link to Comment willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

I'll bet you're one of those half full, not half empty kinda people, right?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

When I fly over the US only a small part of the land is cultivated.  I do not see peak food production.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

You would be correct in that assessment, we can grow a hell of a lot more food.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

When I chew bubble gum there's LOTS of oil!

Are you saying that you only SEE a small part?  I guess I'd have to ask what altitude you're flying and over what area in order to determine what you COULD physically be able to see.  Anyway...

Most food is the result of mechanization, which requires LOTS of energy.

And keep in mind that nature rebuilds soil VERY slowly.

You won't know "peak" until several years go by, until you've been able to chart the trend/numbers.

The collapse of many civilizations caught most people off guard.  I suspect that they didn't understand the exponential function just as we don't.

From Chris Martenson's Crash Course (http://www.peakprosperity.com/video/217/playlist/153/chapter-4-compoundi...):

The purpose of this mini-presentation is to help you understand the power of compounding. If something, such as a population, oil demand, a money supply, or anything, steadily increases in size in some proportion to its current size, and you graph it over time, the graph will look like a hockey stick.

Said more simply, if something is increasing over time on a percentage basis, it is growing exponentially.

Using an example drawn from a magnificent paper by Dr. Albert Bartlett, let me illustrate the power of compounding for you.

Suppose I had a magic eye dropper and I placed a single drop of water in the middle of your left hand. The magic part is that this drop of water is going to double in size every minute.

At first nothing seems to be happening, but by the end of a minute, that tiny drop is now the size of two tiny drops.

After another minute, you now have a little pool of water that is slightly smaller in diameter than a dime sitting in your hand.

After six minutes, you have a blob of water that would fill a thimble.

Now suppose we take our magic eye dropper to Fenway Park, and, right at 12:00 p.m. in the afternoon, we place a magic drop way down there on the pitcher’s mound.

To make this really interesting, suppose that the park is watertight and that you are handcuffed to one of the very highest bleacher seats.

My question to you is, “How long do you have to escape from the handcuffs?” When would it be completely filled? In days? Weeks? Months? Years? How long would that take?

I’ll give you a few seconds to think about it.

The answer is, you have until 12:49 on that same day to figure out how you are going to get out of those handcuffs. In less than 50 minutes, our modest little drop of water has managed to completely fill Fenway Park.

Now let me ask you this – at what time of the day would Fenway Park still be 93% empty space, and how many of you would realize the severity of your predicament?

Any guesses? The answer is 12:45. If you were squirming in your bleacher seat waiting for help to arrive, by the time the field is covered with less than 5 feet of water, you would now have less than 4 minutes left to get free.

And that, right there, illustrates one of the key features of compound growth…the one thing I want you take away from all this. With exponential functions, the action really only heats up in the last few moments.

We sat in our seats for 45 minutes and nothing much seemed to be happening, and then in four minutes – bang! – the whole place was full.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:23 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Ya there are millions of acres of fertile land laying idle becasue?

 

The difference between humans and donkeys is the ability to reason....  It would appear that donkeys can type

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

I wish I'd been a babyboomer then I would have lived a full life which one way or the other would have ended soon. As a Gen-Xer my life will likely be cut short half way. The younger generations will probably not outlive their youth. Damn why do things go this way?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Carrousel!

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:48 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

When I was younger, I hunted with a Daniel Boone like friend of the family that was a little younger than my father. He had beagle dogs that ran rabbits. The rabbit population went through 2 population cycles. The baby rabbits born as the predator populations (foxes, hawks...) were falling at the depths of the rabbit population had a good life. The baby rabbits born at the peak population levels had a short and tough life.

Sanitation, food production, antibiotics and calorie burning gift of refined crude oil has allowed the human population to surpass the Malthusian ecosystem constraints beyound anyone's imagination. The logic of Malthus has never been refuted, except by idiots that assume resources are limitless..like stupid economists. Who would have ever thought that little old humans could change the chemistry of the oceans with their activity? I am NOT a global warming nut, but I do understand the power of mother nature and the ecosystem rules. I do not know, but I can appreciate your concern that, like the rabbit born at peak population, your dice roll was lacking. Enjoy the sunsets my man!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Youth is a wonderful thing. What a crime to waste it on children."  - George Bernard Shaw

Before you start getting despondent you might consider that it COULD be worse:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/thehousekeeper/4656435881/

I'm not thinking that this kid is going to get a shot at fuming in front of a computer.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

BS, we are not at the peak of food and oil production, there is still a lot of oil and available ground that could be converted to ag use with irrigation.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Michelle? Do you collect stained glass windows? 

  EONS ago, the priest/hood taught thier "unread" ,  [DISIPLES] on painted glass, eulogies...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

Your point? If you mean I'm just simply stating something without showing how I know this than I'm only doing what all the other fear-mongerers do and I can play that game, too.

Fact: Millions of acres of BLM land could be sold and added to ag production

Fact: Alberta Bakken of  WESTERN Montana and Alberta, Canada with over 400 billion barrels of recoverable shale oil. This is in addition to all that has recently been found.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/business/165792-report-rocks-filled-with-oi...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Fact: Most land in BLM is poor quality land in western USA and significant percentage is used by livestock operations for forage.

Fact: Alberta Balkans consume a barrel of oil to produce 8-10; whereas the first oil in Middle East (or PA for that matter) consumed a barrel of oil to produce 200 barrels of oil. Once we reach 1:1, gane over. By the way, corn ethanol is abour 1:0.98...talk about stupid activity.

Michelle, how old was Polly Anna when she died? You are correct that Polly lived a happy life as ignorance is bliss!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:53 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

The Balkans are NOT in Alberta....why trust this IDIOT?

I think I'll trust my own knowledge on this one.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:21 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Did you take your idiot meds today?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

How old are you?

If you're younger then I say, YES!  Let's just fucking use it ALL up!  I'll race you!  Of course, it's highly unlikely that I'll be around when others suffer the consequences.

I hate all the skittles and unicorn people.  Never their feet touch the ground.  Not a fucking clue about what soil is.  Not a fucking clue about the FACT that it takes FAR more than just soil.  Here, google this: "Ogallala aquifer."  And know that there IS such a thing as "water wars."

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:20 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

You know you are fucking idiot right?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"available ground that could be converted to ag use with irrigation."

Irrigation takes WATER (and not polluted water).

Irrigation takes POWER.  In California it constitutes roughly 20% of all California's electricity consumption and 30% of its NG consumption (excluding electricity production [from NG]).

Is that sandy soil?  If so, then be prepared to keep pouring water down a hole.

Maybe that soil is clay, no water loss here.  Problem, however, is that clay tends to limit available oxygen, tends to make it tough for roots to establish.

What's the pH of the soil?

Upper midwest isn't the breadbasket of the world for nothing.  And if there was anything even close to the fertile lands there it's already in production.  You just can't wave a wand have stuff grow if it's marginal soil to start with (which is the case for anything that's not already in production).

Oh!  And what's the temps like?  Enough warm days?  Sunshine?  Enough sunlight?

Can the necessary machinery be available?

How far to processing facilities?  Storage facilities?

If livestock (which a LOT of BLM land is already used for), then be prepared for very low stocking densities, likely coupled with a lot of long-distance hauling.

Yeah, if you throw enough energy and money at some land you can make it more productive.  Is it, however, cost effective?  You can bet that the selling prices will HAVE to be higher.  And the other squeeze point is consumers.  With more and more people losing income there's going to be more "victory gardens," which then reduces demand on any output from these BLM lands.

There's a reason why there are farm subsidies and only big players can really operate- FARMING FOR A LIVING IS EXTREMELY HARD* (and no, regular people wouldn't be getting access to any good lands)  * Some are doing OK with niche marketing, but this relies on wealthier customers (in general), and as the economic downturn continues this group isn't going to be growing.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Michelle
Michelle's picture

There, you said it, the BIG PLAYERS...those commercial growers are successful for a reason and have the knowledge, expertise, and resources to turn marginal soil into farmable land.

Like I said, I know about these things.....

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

NO.  There is still oil but it is outrageously expensive to extract it.   We are quickly approaching the point where the amount of energy needed to extract and refine oil is = to the amount of energy realized from a barrel of oil.

 

The End Game is close - deep sea drilling and fracking and tar sands are HUGELY expensive and polluting.  You only resort to such measures when you are truly desperate

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

We'll be Summing It All Up when we begin counting the ways we've implemented OUR way forward.

 

This starts with revoking the Deed TPTB have claimed on the planet.  

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:58 | Link to Comment Fishhawk
Fishhawk's picture

Errol, thanks for your thoughtful comment, and for an excellent example of your premise.  I used a bit of shorthand (hard to get a lot of complex points across in a short comment) in the statement that "Politics interferes with the needed adjustments, preventing us as a collective society from moving towards sustainable solutions."  Actually, politics is a cover devised by the elite to misdirect the frustrations of the disenfranchised when the elite enact their directed history.  The elite interfere with the needed adjustments, preferring to warp society until the fabric tears to maintain their privileged status.  They maintain the two party system to control the supply of available puppet candidates for the voters to choose from.  Thus I use the perjorative term 'politics' to subsume the entire paradigm of fraud being perpetrated by those who control the money.  But you are ultimately correct that the voters will continue to vote for the free lunch over those leaders who would actually try to solve the difficult problems the world is now facing.  Truth has never been in big demand. 

Fishhawk

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment flacorps
flacorps's picture

Malthus was nonsense then, and he's nonsense now. Same for Paul Erlich.

Humans solve problems at a slightly faster clip than they create them. Hence pessimism is attractive, but ultimately erroneous.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Americans solve problems at a slightly higher clip than ordinary humans. There, I fixed your post.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"Malthus was nonsense then, and he's nonsense now. Same for Paul Erlich."

To you perhaps, to you...

Hey!  Let's test it all out.  Let's pile all of the humans on the planet into "flacorps'" house! (assuming his/her mother doesn't mind)

There are virtual realities and then there are physical realities.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it's the physical realities that you should pay attention to.

BTW - Do you believe in compound interest?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:03 | Link to Comment doomerdoug
doomerdoug's picture

The real issue is for the first time in decades the USA is going to have to finance current federal spending out of current tax revenues, including Social Security. The total federal budget is around 4 TRILLION. The total federal tax revenues is in the 2.5 TRILLION range. Obama has been borrowing 1.3 trillion a year to make up the difference, as well as having Braying Bernie print fiat federal reserve notes.

The logical result of that will be the kind of austerity budgets in Greece et al. These austerity budgets will be imposed by Obama on his obamabot supporters, with the result the obamabots will turn on their junior messiah.

The debt is unpayable. The illusion it is payable has been the result of a carefully designed propaganda campaign going back decades. LTCM back in 1998 should have brought the system down. The system has been gamed repeatedly with the result it is now running out of options. The collapse will now be much worse than it would have been if the excess had been allowed to be purged.

THE DEBT IS UNPAYABLE AT ALL LEVELS OF GOVERNMENT, BUSINESS AND PERSONAL. This is the defining economic aspect of our age. 2013 will show what happens when mass debt meets reduced ability to pay that debt. The key to the ongoing survival of this system has been cash flow to maintain interest payments. This cash flow is now drying up at all levels of society. The abiity to roll over debt, without actually paying it off, is also a major reason the system has managed to outlast several crisis which "should have" taken the system down.

The current economic fraud of a system has had a pretty good run due to the US forcing everybody to buy and sell oil in fiat dollars. The run is now ending for a lot of reasons.

I am unsure at what point people will figure out the debt is unpayable. I am also unsure at what threshold attempts to impose austerity budgets to pay off the unpayable debt will trigger social unrest. What I am sure of is the system is now beyond reform, and further, it deserves to crash and burn.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

When "interest" on "money/currency" appeared it was all over.  Interest demands inflation, as there is NO way to account for interest otherwise.  All debts + interest could NEVER be repaid, not even the most thrifty of peoples could do it (unless, that is, none of them had any loans).

Fractional reserve banking just hyper-inflated the core flaw.

People starting to finally learn of the importance of understanding the exponential function?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Summing it all up.... The future sucks and my girlfriend doesn't.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 23:52 | Link to Comment Flying Tiger Comics
Flying Tiger Comics's picture

It's sort of interesting to compare the Georgia Guidestones blueprint, the Dolan breakaway civilisation stuff and this kind of economic forecast. They do fit together pretty well.

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 03:18 | Link to Comment dognamedabu
dognamedabu's picture

I knew it. We are fucked!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

I don't see the ecological apocalypse, the planet is fine. And I don't care about peak oil. Where was our peak coal?

Welcome in the future, once the Occident will have used all the available uranium, in order to impair the other civilisations in their ability to produce nuclear weapons ; we'll go forward thorium. Then what ? We'll have millions of years ahead to colonize and exploit space.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 05:15 | Link to Comment bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

http://www.worldwatch.org/node/1673

As mountain glaciers shrink, large regions that rely on glacial runoff for water supply could experience severe shortages. The Quelccaya Ice Cap, the traditional water source for Lima, Peru, is now retreating by some 30 meters a year-up from only 3 meters a year before 1990-posing a threat to the city's 10 million residents. And in northern India, a region already facing severe water scarcity, an estimated 500 million people depend on the tributaries of the glacier-fed Indus and Ganges rivers for irrigation and drinking water. But as the Himalayas melt, these rivers are expected to initially swell and then fall to dangerously low levels, particularly in summer. (In 1999, the Indus reached record high levels because of glacial melt.)

This link is from US gov's EPA web site.

 

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will have many effects

Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to increase unless the billions of tons of our annual emissions decrease substantially. Increased concentrations are expected to:

These changes will impact our food supply, water resources, infrastructure, ecosystems, and even our own health .

http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Searching for favorable temperate climates, conducive to producing crops and livestock and sufficient and reliable precipitation is why man has circled the globe over time. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 06:07 | Link to Comment Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

The only effective greenhouse gas is water. Have you been near the equator? The atmosphere is full of water, you have a greenhouse effect, that is to say the temperature during the night is almost the same during the day (3°C of volatility).

When you move away from this equatorial climate, you do not have any greenhouse effect: as soon as the sun set, the temperature decrease by dozens of celcius. I live 48,5° north from the equator, there is any greenhouse effect. Stay one night outside, it might be 15°C during the day, you'll be dead frozen in the morning. That won't be the case if there was an effective greenhouse effect in those regions.

So, what the proportion of gas in our atmosphere? 80% azote, 20% oxygene, and rare gas... The CO2 is not even 0,04% of the volume, it is nothing, a fart in a stadium. And this fart doesn't come from industrial fart, but from volcanic eruptions. Whereas water can range from 0 to 4%. Guess which one has a real effect that you can feel.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 07:46 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

separation of effects is a discipline not acknowledged nor understood by those with the AGW religion. - Ned

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hee, hee, hee...

You are blowing smoke out of your ass....

Here is a little interdisciplinary mojo that just came out:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/11/warming-earth-makes-satellites-mo...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Are you paid by the mistake? Or just naturally gifted at getting things wrong?...

Could you describe the net change in radiative forcing from WV compared to C02 over the past 50 years?

You know that when 98% of the people that dedicated their lives to the study of something agree about what the data is telling usl, you should stop and listen...

Or you could simply read what the American Metrological society just put out

http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.html

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 08:53 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

WILE E.COYOTE crash update:

When EURUSD hopium finishes, SPX downtrend can resume.

http://trader618.com
http://tinyurl.com/ZH-Forum

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!