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Big Miss In Retail Sales Paints Grim Picture For Holiday Shopping

Tyler Durden's picture


Here we go with the "but, but, Sandy" excuses. The just announced October retail sales tumbled, with their worst miss of expectations since May 2010, and the first sequential decline since June: printing at -0.3% for both the headline and the 'ex autos and gas', on expectations of a -0.2% and +0.4% rise. Ignoring for a second that the Commerce Department said that Hurricane Sandy had both positive (remember those massive lines in various stores ahead of Sandy) and negative impacts on retail sales, it would be truly inconceivable for the sellside Wall Street consensus of diploma'ed PhDs, which knew about Sandy's impact on retail sales well in advance, and thus could adjust its numbers, to actually, you know, adjust its numbers. Either way there is no way to spin the longer term major store sales trend (last chart), which shows that the US consumer, out of money, out of credit, and out of savings is entering the holiday season with little to zero disposable spending power.

A sequential decline in virtually everything except General Merchandise sales:

Breakdown by category: oops on cars and building materials:

The biggest miss to expectations for core retail sales since 2010:

Finally, the only chart that matters: the long-term trend in true sales. Not pretty:


And in other news, PPI printed a decline of -0.2% - the first drop since May - on expectations of a 0.2% print and up from 1.1%, on sliding energy costs, even as food PPI was up 0.4%.

The evil, evil deflation is once again coming back, which is good: at least what little money US consumers have will have slightly more purchasing power. At least until the Fed starts outright monetizing $85 billion in total securities starting January.

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Wed, 11/14/2012 - 09:56 | 2979442 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

cue the youtube vid where hitler explains how black friday will save retail sales.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 09:57 | 2979443 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

Kevin is going to need a bigger shovel today.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:00 | 2979448 El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Went to Kohls on the weekend for a super sale where you get like 30 % + off on everything. Looked at pair of running shoes that I was going to buy but was waiting for this sale. They marked them up 30 % for the sale. Left in disgust. But you would have not believed the fucking line up snaking around the store and how much absolute shit people were buying. I thought the store was going to run out of merchandize.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:25 | 2979533 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Fuck Kohl's.  I went to a Veteran's Day sale to buy some Levi's - buy 1 get one 1/2 price.  I picked out my size and went to the counter only to find out that the list price on a pair of Levi's was $58.  $58 for a pair of fucking Levi's - not this guy.


I too left in disgust.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:57 | 2979648 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

 Walmart has Wranglers for $9.50 on Black Friday.  Can't beat that. Stock up while the dollar is still worth something.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 12:06 | 2979928 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Fuck Walmart.  Tax subsidy sucking corporate welfare queen.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:01 | 2979452 Budd aka Sidewinder
Budd aka Sidewinder's picture

When the MSM anchors report the day after Black Friday that sales are booming, watch how much they blink

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:19 | 2979460 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

No worries, Uncle Sam will setup a Federal Agecny to securitize VISA and MASTERCARD debt.  That way the FED will be able to monetize it knowing full well that future generations of serfs will be on the hook.  After all, we all know how unfair banks are to those who have been deemed credit risks.  It is every American's right to have access to consumer credit regardless of their ability to repay.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:04 | 2979468 SwampHonkey
SwampHonkey's picture

Hey man its All Good......They fixed it remember.....Green shoots Bitches...Brb going to buy some FaceBook stock......

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:10 | 2979485 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

I'd like to think Americans have searched their empty souls and discovered that more-shit does not equal more-happy. But no, they're just broke. Moar free shit, Hopey! The natives are suffering!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:18 | 2979509 SwampHonkey
SwampHonkey's picture

Dont tell me, we have ran out of people who spend money they dont have,

to buy shit they dont need , to impressive people they dont like....Say it aint so


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 11:14 | 2979707 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

That's the quote of the day in my book....A+

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:10 | 2979486 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture




everything's bullish as we roll into opex friday.  

fuck ypu bernank.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:12 | 2979491 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Everyones credit card is maxed out, including the US Governments.  But, who will have the balls to cut up the card-the CHICOMS!!!

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 13:52 | 2980541 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

Probably most peoples. But I know annecdotally of many people who have cut back and paid off their cards this year and are using a fraction of the credit available to them.



Wed, 11/14/2012 - 15:02 | 2980874 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

We are cutting way back this year.  We have never funded our holiday extravaganzas by charging things, but our celebrations have become almost unrecognizable in their modesty over the past few years, and this year we are really toning things down.  We aren't exchanging among adults at all, only giving gifts to the kids.  I don't think it is just a matter of money either, because we could get each other some small thing easily enough.  It has all just become too much.  I think Christmas has been in a bubble and it has burst.   Aren't you finding that the whole thing has just become repugnant and hollow?  

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:14 | 2979499 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

MBA Index is through the roof.  Must be Hurricane Sandy, no I mean the great recovery thanks to the low rates...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:22 | 2979527 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I bought another $1000 worth of silver this morning. Does that count?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:26 | 2979543 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Only if you put it on your Visa card. That you're never gonna pay off. Ever.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:27 | 2979547 desirdavenir
desirdavenir's picture

electronic and appliance stores ? -5.6% (vs 2011) ?

The month the iPad mini was launched, just after the release of the iPhone 5 ?


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 12:20 | 2980010 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Video game sales down -25% YOD as well.

Unless your game is FIFA, COD, Halo, or Madden....you aint selling.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:33 | 2979569 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Markets green on the retail news or it may be because millions in Europe are rioting today. Could be Bernanke bucks behind the scenes action influencing reality again. Whatever it is...something doesn't seem right.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:36 | 2979580 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Last chart - 2012=2008, 2013=2009?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 10:55 | 2979640 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Only guns and ammo are selling well.  Got Guns? 

"Always keep it loaded!  Always keep it loaded! Always keep it loaded!"


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 11:06 | 2979673 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Back to the Obama ecnomy now that they were able to manufacture finacial numbers for the election. 


Wed, 11/14/2012 - 11:50 | 2979868 SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

Dont worry.


If there's anything the sheep love, its running up thousands on credit cards and playing santa to everyone they know, then filing bankruptcy the following spring.



Things will be fine. Just keep buying those IGadgets.


*cues music*

'makin' your way in the world today, takes everything ya got.... takin' a break from all your worries, sure could help a lot'

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 12:12 | 2979959 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Main Street: "We have no money."

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 13:07 | 2980252 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"Black Thursday is the new Black Friday"


Is anything fucking scared anymore?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 13:10 | 2980266 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

You can get most "black friday" deals online on Thanksgiving.  No need to even fight the crowds.  Most stores will have free shipping too, over a certain amount spent.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 13:48 | 2980515 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

Really all I see is a slight dip. Yes a miss but still its nowhere near the 30% decline a true defationary "we have no more money" collapse would show.


If more Merikans were sensible they would boycott the malls this season instead of buying more cheap disposable crap from abroad and igadgets.


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spotdeals's picture

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