Whoever really runs things these days for the semi-mummified royal administration down in Saudi Arabia must be leaving skid-marks in his small-clothes thinking about Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his ISIS army of psychopathic killers sweeping hither and thither through what is again being quaintly called “the Levant.” ISIS has successfully shocked the world over the last two weeks by negating eight years, several trillion dollars, and 4,500 battle deaths in the USA’s endeavor to turn Iraq into an obedient oil dispensary. Things are happening at lightning speed over in the region and beware of how the turmoil spreads from one flashpoint to another.
As propogandists prepare their "it's the other guy's fault" press releases, Ukraine's President Poroshenko issued a statement declaring the cease-fire over...
- *POROSHENKO SAYS UKRAINE TO END CEASE-FIRE IN EASTERN REGIONS
- *POROSHENKO PLEDGES TO MOVE AGAINST REBELS, 'FREE OUR LAND'
- *POROSHENKO BLAMES REBELS FOR FAILURE OF PEACE PLAN IN UKRAINE
- *POROSHENKO SAYS MILITANTS VIOLATED CEASE-FIRE OVER 100 TIMES
Furthermore, his promise to "attack and liberate" the land and resumption of the "anti-terrorist" operations, means civil war is back on (and what appeasrs to be martial law) as he explains Armed Forces, National Guard, the State Border Guard Service, Security Service received appropriate instructions.
Having had his omnipotence chipped away at last week, President Obama has - seemingly - been pushed too far by the Supreme Court's decision on contraception and Obamacare this morning: The White House stated...
SUPREME COURT DECISION ON CONTRACEPTION COVERAGE JEOPARDIZES HEALTH OF WOMEN EMPLOYED BY THESE COMPANIES
WILL WORK WITH CONGRESS TO MAKE SURE WOMEN AFFECTED BY RULING WILL HAVE SAME ACCESS TO CONTRACEPTION
WILL CONSIDER WHETHER PRESIDENT CAN ACT ON HIS OWN TO MITIGATE EFFECT OF SUPREME COURT RULING
Totalitarian? You decide... One wonders if the phrase "do you know who I am?" was uttered this morning?
Obama Lied: US Sending 300 Additional Troops Into Iraq, Including Detachment Of Helicopters And Drone AircraftSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/30/2014 17:41 -0400
The lukewarm war waged by the Nobel peace prize winner is getting warmer by the day. Just out from Reuters:
- UNITED STATES SENDS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 300 TROOPS INTO IRAQ, DETACHMENT OF HELICOPTERS AND DRONE AIRCRAFT - PENTAGON
Note that "this time" it is not just "military advisors" but outright troops: According to the Pentagon, the deployment is “separate and apart” from military advisers deployed to Iraq. This force is deploying for the purpose of protecting U.S. citizens and property, if necessary, and is equipped for combat. This force will remain in Iraq until the security situation becomes such that it is no longer needed,” Obama says in letter to Congress.
You know you've made it when you land on the official "yes, you can spy on them" NSA list. As WaPo reports, this exhibit lists the 193 foreign governments as well as foreign factions, political organizations and other entities that were part of a 2010 certification approved by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. These are the entities about which the NSA may conduct surveillance, for the purpose of gathering foreign intelligence. One thing comes to mind... what about Canada?
"If past is indeed sometimes prologue, this simple chart might be hinting that a rally similar in arithmetical range and time-span – if not in percentage gain – to the Tech bubble itself is becoming dangerously overripe and that, if so, the most propitious time to effect an exit is not when the fat lady interrupts her warbling of the anthem to shriek, 'Fire!' at the audience instead."
Gold is the best performing asset in H1 2014 (just beating crude oil). The USA is the worst-performing macro-economy in the world's majors in H1. The S&P 500 is up now 6 quarters in a row - its best run since 1998. The Russell 2000 had its best month since September but Trannies are leading the Dow by over 900bps year-to-date. "Most shorted" stocks had their 'best - biggest squeeze' month in 11 months. Gold and silver had great months. Today saw stocks rally then fade and bond yields rose then fell (down 1-2bps). The dollar slipped markedly on the day to 2-month lows as commodities surged (ex Oil) with Gold, silver, and copper all reaching multi-month highs (amid short-covering and CCFD unwinds). VIX closed the month higher.
Financial markets do the one thing better than nearly any other form of protest or lauding of government policies. When the financial markets are falling that’s a tell-tale sign something somewhere is wrong. Same for the lifting, where the rise lifts all giving policy makers as well as the general public at large explicit feedback of what is, as well as, what’s not working. Yet, once those indicators become an adulterated vehicle with the ability to mask true economic information, everything is lost. Just how pungent does today’s economic corpse need to stink before everyone understands it hasn’t been resting, or recovering, but has been dead for who knows how long? With a print of nearly 3% negative GDP, sustaining, or plodding along, or any other descriptor stating “recovering” is ludicrous.
GM has succeeded in achieving the impossible: it is no longer a joke. It is now just plain sad.
It's been a busy day for President Obama and he needs a win... a bright shiny PR moment, surrounded with immigrant children explaining how he is the Pied Piper that will save them all from the despotic servitude they come from. In an unplanned press conference President Obama will address his immigration reform at 1450ET through executive action. No lesser man than Cantor-buster Dave Brat opined that the President's policies "sound nice", like "the Kids’ Act, the DREAM Act, the ENLIST Act," but did little to address the growing influx of children. “The reason we have those thousands crossing the border is because of poor policy in the first place,” Brat added. We are sure Obama disagrees - besides, this has to be good for GDP, right? - The Broken Border Fallacy.
It appears the same 'contagion' that is driving copper prices higher is also impacting gold and silver this morning. As we have noted previously, the CCFD unwind drives synthetic short (hedge) covering and inevitably rolls down the curve to drive spot strength (as the paper gold market tail wags the 'physical' market's dog). Gold is at 3 month highs and silver getting close...
Behold: a record $340 billion in reverse repos submitted by the world's financial institutions with the Federal Reserve, an increase of $200 billion overnight, and amounting to a record $3.5 billion on average among the 97 operations participants. Considering this is a clear quarterly event, it goes without saying that all the reverse repo is, is a quarter-end window dressing mechanism underwritten by Mr. Chairmanwoman itself.
Earlier today Reuters reported that the European Commission said on Monday it had approved a Bulgarian request to extend a credit line of 3.3 billion levs ($2.30 billion) in support of banks that have come under speculative attack. “The Commission concluded that the state aid implied by the provision of the credit line is proportionate and commensurate with the need to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system in the particular circumstances,” the EU executive said in a statement. The statement said Bulgaria’s banking system was “well capitalised and has high levels of liquidity compared to its peers in other member states. For precautionary reasons, Bulgaria has taken this measure to further increase the liquidity and safeguard its financial system”. The move follows runs by jittery depositors on two major Bulgarian commercial banks in the space of a week. And while this latest backstop of the Bulgarian bank system should provide a respite from bank insolvency fears (if only for the time being), one wonders about Europe's true intentions.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Amid the growing geopolitical powder keg of 2014, the deafening roar of BIS-deniers proclaiming that everything bad is priced-in and nothing good is priced-in dominates the mainstream media. This is nothing new... as no less than The Financial Times proclaims on June 30th 1914 that "stock markets have been scarcely affected by the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne... there's no evidence that stock holders took fright" as it's priced in (or contained?). It seems things didn't quite work out as 'priced-in'.
Copper has rallied almost 6% in the last few weeks with a 1.25% surge today sending the 'economic' metal back to near 4-month highs. This must means demand is picking up, right? This must mean the world is ok, right? Chatter is that this morning's home sales 'noise' surprise spike was the catalyst but it appears much more likely that a combination of a continued squeeze of a very-extended spec short position and the ongoing unwind of China's commodity-finance-deals is the real catalyst. As the market comes to terms with synthetic demand (CCFD unwinds buying back hedges) dominating any excess supply in the spot market, futures positioning still has more room to go.