• Monetary Metals
    05/02/2016 - 01:28
    The price of gold shot up this week, and silver moved proportionally. Headlines are screaming for gold to hit $10,000 or $50,000. Does this alleged new bull market have legs?

Chart Of The Day: Continued Collapse In Capital Goods New Orders Confirms US Is In Recession

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the just released Durable Goods orders report for October came in modestly better than expected (which many thought would be a decline due to Hurricane Sandy), the primary driver of this continues to be record durable good inventory accumulation. Excluding the noise, and focusing only on real, non-noisy economic strength metrics such as New Capital Goods Orders (technically defined as the year over year change in Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft), a very different and far uglier picture emerges. In fact, the October Y/Y Plunge of -8.1% in this major indicator was the biggest drop since 2009.

Curious where this collapse in New Orders is in the context of prior recessions? Here it is (shaded areas indicate NBER-defined recessions). We have never had such a steep drop in Cap Goods in the past 30 years without a concurrent recession.

To summarize: according to one of the least susceptible to manipulation indicators of US economic strength and growth, the US economy is now in a recession.

Source: St. Louis Fed

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Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:42 | 3014627 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

That’s awesome kridkrid, Mr. Bernanke = Mr. Cheese

I remember reading about a kid getting bit by a snake that crawled into one of those ball pits,

Correlates to WS lobbyists crawling in the DC “ball pit”

we always called it the “Eballa-pit” a virtual hot zone

cheers.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 14:48 | 3014841 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The Philly Bernank-Steak

Ham & Bernank

Bernank Doodles

Bernank Whiz

Bernank-Heads (Packer fans)

...and my favorite, Grilled Bernank

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:17 | 3014378 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

The place actually makes me close to physically ill whilst letting the kiddies play games that every other rugrat with a snotty nose has just played. The pizza would make any good mafia member proud though.

I make them wash thier hands after playing every game, it's such a fucking germhole. At least the prizes are a real bargain for what you spend.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:58 | 3014172 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I agree. This isn't a depression. It's a collapse. During a depression, people save and plan on or hope for better days sometime down the road. During a collapse, people are either clueless or so apathetic they don't care about the future. That's why you see people behaving like animals for cheap shit that won't last a year. They're only desire is to enjoy what's left before the end. It's a Roman-style collapse.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:00 | 3014190 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Bravo DW.  That is the defining difference here.  Recessions occur and consumption drops so prices drop.  Only this time the recession has occured, consumption was up 13% on Black Friday, and inflation is about 6%.

 

Romans got off easy if you ask me.  No one had guns then.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:26 | 3014567 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Mayhem was quite possible with iron age weapons.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 15:49 | 3015076 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Certainly a lot more personal!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:06 | 3014205 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

+1 Spot on.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:27 | 3014253 edifice
edifice's picture

Exactly. Get ready for the New Dark Ages.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:33 | 3014432 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

+1 on collapse. Other than those of us who have been long time coin collectors, how many ZH brothers/sisters have begun stocking PMs?

I mean, anyone should have some PM, but ZHers began stockpiling a ways back. 

We have also had a lot of bad luck, as there have been too many PMs lost to boating accidents, or tailgates left down on the pickup. I predict even more accidental sinkings and such.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 15:30 | 3015019 e-recep
e-recep's picture

where to stockpile them? you know not everyone has a garden or yard.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:28 | 3014580 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Head in Sand.

Or is that head up your arse?

Ask yourself where all that consumer money is coming from?

HELOCS are up at 2009 levels and rising! Houses as ATM's again! Plastic maxed out? No problem, just borrow more, pay off those cards and start again. CHARGE!  

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:23 | 3014246 Alpacanio
Alpacanio's picture

It's only invisable because they now give out EBT cards. No soup lines!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 13:10 | 3014517 EuroInhabitant
EuroInhabitant's picture

US consumer confidence on highest level in 4 years. Housing market up up up. What depression?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 14:52 | 3014853 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

There is NO DEPRESSION.  And here is why...SSRI prescriptions up 99% over the past 4 years. 

That is all.

Edit: P.S. wait until the collapse creates a shortage of xanax.  Mass psychosis will be most unpleasant.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:13 | 3014026 Jason T
Jason T's picture

but if they fix the fiscal cliff ..whatever the heck that even means.. growth will boom next year they say.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:22 | 3014054 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just kick the debt to a few more generations down the line, then none of us have a thing to worry about! Partytime!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:32 | 3014088 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We are out of generations to kick the debt to...the upcoming war will see to that.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:02 | 3014194 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I think they have a time machine over at loopers.  See if they can send it to the moon.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:13 | 3014030 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Charts?  Algos don't need no stinking charts!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:39 | 3014112 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

please do not bother the bankers with superfluous issues of the reakl world, thank you.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:31 | 3014036 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

" Curious where this collapse in New Orders is in the context of prior recession"

 

I'm curious when we left the first recession. Does that mean we've been upgraded from the depression we've been in since 2000?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:17 | 3014038 govttrader
govttrader's picture

And what does the govt do in a recession?  The govt spends money to replace spending lost in the economy.  Oh, you say the govt doesn't have any extra money to spend?  Well, i hear there is a printing press collecting dust somewhere...so lets dust that badboy off...tell the Treasury to sell some more bonds and we'll pick up the slack with QE4.

 

Is there any question that this is what happens next?

I hear QE4 will be positive for the long end in the short term..you know...cuz the Fed will be buying it.

 

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:21 | 3014052 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If only the tenants of the Corporation of the United States had access to debt-free "money".  Instead they all must pay a private bank to print it for them.  Stupid fucking sheep.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:59 | 3014187 new game
new game's picture

good point - where the fuck is my free money!

not only that!!! IAM SICK AND TIRED OF WORKING FOR A LIVING...

this idea of working is soooo old school. print, and liv the life-here today and fuck tomarrow...

get with it, man, money for nothin chick is free for you with all da free money-vote accordingly til it don't mater...

 

 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:34 | 3014279 adr
adr's picture

uh, the stock market. That is what every equity bull will tell you. The market prints money for all involved. You should have invested $10k in Apple in 2003. You would be a millionaire now.

See free money and you wouldn't have to work.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:02 | 3014195 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Unless you're advocating taking away the printing press (sans a few rare occasions, if ever), then all you're advocating is a changing of the person cracking the whip.  It matters not to the backs of the sheep.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:17 | 3014380 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The world is always at war, so fucking what?  Did you have a point?  Return to sound money and real consequences for bad behavior or the dark ages, your choice.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:23 | 3014402 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

It's not necessarily an either or proposition...  we may very well get the dark ages regardless.

The point is that we can return to sound money and real consequences for bad behavior, but it will not fix what ails us.  In short, we've had sound money and real consequences before...  it tends to keep ending the same.  In other words, these things, in and of themselves, are not enough.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:47 | 3014138 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Double triple SECRET QE coming next!!

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 12:11 | 3014360 Orly
Orly's picture

Or how about this for a scenario?

The government wants to get rid of the tax exemption on municipal bonds and in a deal with the Republicans, President Obama axes the tax exemption (after threatening the people with doing the same for mortgage interest, now starring on CNBC...).  Investors jump out of munis so fast, it was as if their hair were on fire.  Then, the Fed comes in or, more likely, uses a proxy to mop up municipal debt.

How do you think?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:20 | 3014039 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Get the warehouses ready. Here comes Holiday Season channel stuffing.

The recession is perfect timing to justify kicking the can over the fiscal cliff. YeeeeHaaaa.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:18 | 3014043 semperfi
semperfi's picture

more infinite QE - quick !

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:18 | 3014044 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

FRED - BUG LULZ

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:20 | 3014048 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Equities near their all time highs remain totaly unfazed. After all, we'll surely sail right over the debt cliff like RedBull Flugtag right?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:29 | 3014074 Quintus
Quintus's picture

More like Redbull Felix Baumgartner.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:38 | 3014108 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea.

Wed, 11/28/2012 - 00:26 | 3016498 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Equities High/VIX low.....heard a talking head on CNBS utter the truth the other day....these causes we due to FED action (intervention) in the market.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:21 | 3014051 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

We will stay in a depression as long as the government and the banks keep sucking all the credit and capital out of the system.  This is the same as 1929-1946 depression.

But markets are still going to rise on money supply.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:33 | 3014090 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Exactly, Lak Achuthan notes that before the great depression, we had the "Roaring 20s"....a period when stocks went up, yet the "real" economy didn't expand.

That's what the liberals (and toadie conservatives) don't get when they defend this market.  They think Dow goes up = lifes good!  When it isn't, especially with how incomes have plunged, credit has risen (along with deliquent payments for the last few quarters), and job net creation has barely covered the spread. 

The stock market is NOT the economy......especially in the crony capitalist system we live in today.  As long as they keep that DOW number "up", and gold/silver down...... the people will be complacent. 

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:48 | 3014141 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Markets will rise on money supply, until they don't.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:55 | 3014174 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

And then look the fuck out....

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:00 | 3014188 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The only way it will stop is a complete reform of the banking system and a gold standard.  Until that happens, the bankers will always print themselves more money to avoid liquidating anything.  You cannot short this thing in paper fiat money.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 11:29 | 3014259 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Actually, it will continue so long as humans can delude themselves into believing the myth of the free lunch...  and desire to get today for a promise to pay tomorrow.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:22 | 3014055 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Chart says it all.

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:30 | 3014056 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

DP

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:31 | 3014057 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

DP

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:24 | 3014061 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

Were does that second chart coincide with QEoo?

Tue, 11/27/2012 - 10:27 | 3014062 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"But markets are still going to rise on money supply."

------------------------------------------------------------------

Correct, and they will continue to do so until either supply lines break, or someone makes the margin call and demands to see or take possession of the underlying assets and collateral.  Then WWIII starts.  Same as it ever was.

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