The One Time When More Is Certainly Not Better

Tyler Durden's picture

Presented with little comment - except to say, maybe those Mayans were on to something?



Source: Goldman Sachs

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imapopulistnow's picture

Need to use a logarithmic scale.

tickhound's picture

nice head and shoulders there. 

stormsailor's picture

yeah, and when it breaks things should get calm again.

tickhound's picture

I dunno... I'm seeing strong support around the 250 NND.

SKY85hawk's picture

Or, is it trending down since 2009?

PUD's picture

Completely predicted by climate change models.

gamera9's picture

Benanke's Bazooka will end this deflationary spiral. Get to work Mr. Chairman

drivenZ's picture

definitely Bernanke's fault. 

Coast Watcher's picture

No no, look at the pattern. Obviously Bush's fault.

MonkeyBOOM's picture

Interesting, but this could be explained simply by: More people living in more areas, more people bothering to report things at all (because its getting technically far easier), and an increasingly low bar for an event to be considered a "disaster"... would be interesting to dig into this


mckee's picture

"an increasingly low bar for an event to be considered a "disaster"... " Cable going out?

zerozulu's picture

Perhaps this chart shows how big insurance companies have become.

mckee's picture

Yeah... but in the 1950's people still thought thunder was caused by the "Gods" bowling or something so....


TWSceptic's picture

Actually over a longer period of time there is no change in the number of natural disasters. Sorry environmentalists.

mckee's picture

So are you saying a 50 year dataset from 100's of millions of years isn't valid? I bet your one of those "loonies' who don't believe in climate change either!!

SokPOTUS's picture

Looks like a picture-perfect head and shoulders formation.  Short Climate Change FTW.

TWSceptic's picture

No I'm saying that natural disasters have always occured and humans are not going to change that. You're attacking a straw man as I never claimed to disagree with VALID data (how could anyone disagree with that unless they are insane?).

It's not about what one believes either. It's about what one can prove. There is evidence for changing temperatures, as there has been changing temperatures since the earth was formed. There is no conclusive evidence that humans are changing the long term climate considerably or to a dangerous level. That's something some people have blindly accepted though, you seem to be one of them.

gmak's picture

I think that he / she was being sarcastic.

urbanelf's picture

Is Krugman's alien invasion under "Other"?

urbanelf's picture

Well... I guess an invasion isn't a natural disaster.

Dr. Engali's picture

Why do all these charts look like the long term S&P 500 chart?

pods's picture

I like the "state of emergency declared."

That about sums it up.  Hype.  10 or more killed?  100 or more affected?

I would think that you can subtract every super bowl/NCCA/NBA/World series out of that dataset.

And evey forecast of snow down here in the South.


JohnG's picture

Yup.  ust let someone *think* snow.  Suddenly all grocery stores cleaned out of bread, beer, diapers and buttwipe.

Jugdish's picture

Every quickie mart cleaned out of beer, cigerettes, lotto tickets, and porn magazines.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

everything is a crisis and a disaster nowadays

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Chart is sorta fubar, so there were no disasters before 1950 or almost none?

RopeADope's picture

Goldman didn't mean to release the disaster data set, it is for internal use only. What Goldman meant to release was the Acts of God data set which has an inverse correlation, Just keep racking up consumer debt because the world is a happier place with fewer AoG.

The Axe's picture

can i add my P&L and my marriage to the list    .lol

Richard Head's picture

Like subprime, it's all contained.

Piranhanoia's picture

But can we be sure that they are reporting them all?    Sandy will be renamed Brew-102 so no one will have to count it.

I am Jobe's picture

IS there a sale anywhere in Amerika? Just need more wafffle irons, phones and panties.

Joe moneybags's picture

In California, any rainy day is a "storm".  That graph can also double as "the number of pussies who feel victimized by everyday events".

magpie's picture

Same here. Since times immemorial people have hedged as best they could against cyclical 'natural disasters', eg. storms, droughts, floods etc. If you no longer can, then put them under the same category as earthquakes, meteor strikes and volcanic eruptions.

Jim B's picture

States are incentivized by the FEDs to inflate damages…  More damage = more free money!!!!!!!

ShrNfr's picture

I suspect that if you deflate this chart by the total global population in some manner, you will find things relatively constant. As the population grows, people tend to settle in places where there were no people previously. The reason that there were no people previously is often because the place was downright hazardous. Also "major" seems linked to the total number of people killed or displaced. As the number of people increases, there are simply more of them around to die. More people will die tomorrow on average than ever died before.

Essential Nexus's picture

Just what I was thinking.  New Orleans is a perfect example: drain a swamp build a city below sea level and then complain when things get wet.

ShrNfr's picture

Actually, it was above sea level for a while when they first built it. The problem is that it was just muck and as you built on it, there was considerable subsidence. I am waiting for a reasonable sized earthquake to hit Boston sometime. Not that I really want to see it happen, but most of Boston is built on imported mush. The only way they could build the "Big Pig" was literally to pipe liquid nitrogen into pipes adjacent to where they were tunneling and freeze it solid for a while. Back Bay was a bay back then.

Spastica Rex's picture

It looks like Peak Calamity was about 2006. Huzzah! It's all down hill, now! All down hill.

falak pema's picture

shuss as they say in austria...shuss...sounds very downhill/

debtor of last resort's picture

I believe the source of the chart is the biggest disaster. Should i be a muppet and buy this?

Nothing To See Here's picture

I bet they change the definition of "natural disaster" just like they change the definition of inflation as they go...

MrButtoMcFarty's picture

After perhaps war....what better way to expand government?

epwpixieq-1's picture

The Nature is not happy when its children do not consider that every system exhibiting growth, as the advanced industrial human society, for example, on average, has to adhere to the Natural growth.

This is one thing that was automatically enforced by the Gold standard.

RopeADope's picture

Our next generation of leaders was raised on virtual world so I see nothing but good things in the future.

Oldballplayer's picture

Pagan Nature worship bitchez.