The Chart That Keeps Ben Bernanke Up At Night

Tyler Durden's picture




 

What changed in the last 30 days? Did the world just wake up to the idea that the only way out of this quagmire is a twisted currency war that appears to have re-ignited thanks to Abe's efforts? Something appears to have snapped in the American psyche as the last 30 days have seen the largest physical gold sales on record. Between the search volume for 'bulk ammo' and this, we fear something is afoot and while Congress fiddles as our economy burns, Bernanke going 'back to work' is perhaps what the physical 'horders' are thinking... or maybe they understand, as we noted here, that just as Kyle Bass has confirmed previously, Paper Gold is just like allocated, unambiguously owned physical bullion... until it’s not.

 

(Source: US Mint)

(h/t Alex Gloy of Lighthouse Investment Management)

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Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:14 | 3027006 carlnpa
carlnpa's picture

Several weeks ago zerohedge noted the huge move of cash into bank savings.

I noted the people giving a big FU to the financial system due to the election results, going to cash from traditional financial instruments as a form of protest.

Part 2 above - huge movement of cash into pm's.

The people are speaking, are their masters listening?

Fight club is on.  Masters take note.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:11 | 3027011 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

*This chart excludes January, which had much higher sales than November. 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:14 | 3027019 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

Edit: in terms of coins.  January slightly lost out in terms of oz (127k vs. 136.5k). 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:32 | 3027041 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

a slightly longer term perspective-

 

2000 164,500oz
2001 325,000oz
2002 315,000oz
2003 484,500oz
2004 536,000oz
2005 449,000oz
2006 261,000oz
2007 198,500oz
2008 860,500oz
2009 1,425,000oz
2010 1,220,500oz
2011 1,000,000oz
2012 677,000oz (so far)
Total 242.25 tons

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:36 | 3027162 unununium
unununium's picture

That is correct according to the very same US mint data linked to by the article.  Thank you.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:56 | 3027306 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Data FTW!

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 06:48 | 3027714 e-recep
e-recep's picture

you gotta include 1997 and 1998 as well. i.e. asian and russian meltdowns, you will be surprised.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 11:00 | 3027933 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Complete data set from the Mint website, with avg London fix prices and 3 period smoothing- for those might mistakenly think there is correlation between 12yr periodicity in volumes with the price of gold.

semicolon delimited CSV 

"Year";"Ounces";"3-Yr Avg";"Avg Fix";"3-Yr Avg Fix"
1986;1,787,750;;$367.53;
1987;1,253,000;;$446.48;
1988;560,000;1,200,250;$436.98;$417.00
1989;503,500;772,167;$381.44;$421.63
1990;457,450;506,983;$383.51;$400.64
1991;253,000;404,650;$362.11;$375.69
1992;385,800;365,417;$343.82;$363.15
1993;514,000;384,267;$359.11;$355.01
1994;310,000;403,267;$384.00;$362.31
1995;297,750;373,917;$383.79;$375.63
1996;275,000;294,250;$387.81;$385.20
1997;771,250;448,000;$331.02;$367.54
1998;1,839,500;961,917;$294.24;$337.69
1999;2,055,200;1,555,317;$278.98;$301.41
2000;164,500;1,353,067;$279.11;$284.11
2001;325,000;848,233;$271.04;$276.38
2002;315,000;268,167;$309.73;$286.63
2003;484,500;374,833;$363.38;$314.72
2004;536,000;445,167;$409.72;$360.94
2005;449,000;489,833;$444.74;$405.95
2006;261,000;415,333;$603.46;$485.97
2007;198,500;302,833;$695.39;$581.20
2008;860,500;440,000;$871.96;$723.60
2009;1,425,000;828,000;$972.35;$846.57
2010;1,220,500;1,168,667;$1,224.53;$1,022.95
2011;1,000,000;1,215,167;$1,571.52;$1,256.13
2012;677,000;965,833;$1,667.55;$1,487.87

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:12 | 3027014 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Who's Abe?

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 02:13 | 3027590 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

<---A Really Honest Guy

<---A Disgraced Japanese Politician Coming out of Retirement To Be Disgraced All Over Again

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:17 | 3027022 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

To be complete the picture would need to include the short interest on treasuries.

Buying treasuries is helping the Fed in repressing rates. Shorting treasuries would force the Fed to buy more Treasuries to repress rates but the side effect would be that more money would have to be printed without ~sterilization~.

The Treasuries are the weak point of the fiat system as the collateral of the entire finanical system. In other to make teh Gold go ballistic, one needs to the Gold trade by shorting treasuries at the same. Be a good Gold bug to support the cause and short a bit of treasuries. Pass to friend traders. This is the way to bankrupt the Fed guaranteed, if even one goes and short a bit of treasuries, that is the way to go.

 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:28 | 3027241 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Fighting the Fed can be very bad for your wealth. Do you want to go short on T-bonds when the Fed can come in any day and squeeze you by the balls? Can you say "margin call"? You might have to sell all your gold to pay your broker.

Gold bugs should stick to buying physical Au, Pt, Ag, and Pd.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:27 | 3027357 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Fighting the Fed is a full time funny job. Profitable, dangerous. The Fed represses your physical Gold with paper, by shorting it. The way you hurt them back is by shorting the treasuries. Mutual torture. Definition of Fun.

 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:33 | 3027361 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

What keeps Bernanke awake is not at all people buying physical Gold. What really scares teh shit out of him is that more and more people decide they want to short the treasuries while being long Gold. The only way he can wack my short is by helping my long by printing more money and push my Gold up. This is the way to Corner the Fed. Buy Gold and short treasuries. If many people do the same it is KABOOM 100% guaranteed, the Fed would lose control (see Sibileau piece on that).

 

 

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:48 | 3027386 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Just short the strip, simple and buy some tobacco shares (which covers the carry cost easily) and buy some Gold. There is nothing hte Fed can do about that trade. Do not use much leverage in shorting the treasuries and do not use the futures market, short the strips outright. The differential between ILBE implied inflation and 30 years bond yield is at the lowest. When this metric goes negative your long Gold position goes to the moon. Something has to give, the real yield is so negative on the 30 years that by having the long short (with small short on Treasuries) you make the situation untenable for hte Fed. Besises, since buying 30 years is lending at less than 3% tor the Gov, shorting is the exact opposite, you borrow at ultra low rate from Gov. Why should anyone pass the opportunity to lock a less than 3% borrowing cost for 30 yeras from teh Gov and buy some hard asset with it? Short the Treasuries and buy hard assets, fuck them all up.

 

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 10:49 | 3027912 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

My palladium has done well recently.

Until it fell off the back of the pickup.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:17 | 3027023 Conman
Conman's picture

The Bernank don't care. That's the thing about psychopaths.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:27 | 3027031 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Ben Bernanke doesn't look at anychart unless at first glance its parabolic.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:31 | 3027040 Sextus Empiricus
Sextus Empiricus's picture

Bernank is a millionaire... doubt much keeps him up at night.

I'm sure he sits on a bit of gold as well.  Gotta have all the bases covered.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:52 | 3027082 oddball
oddball's picture

Probably a gold dildo, "who's my bitch?"

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 19:44 | 3027065 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I have more gold than Ben Bernanke,thats what keeps him up.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:09 | 3027113 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

**TYLER:

Remember the recent massive bulge of bank deposits? It was right before t-giving. I think we know what the flow was: cash moving into bank deposit accounts (likely checking) then wires for the above Au purchases.

Any way t track wire transfer #'s?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:13 | 3027123 HANKREARDON
HANKREARDON's picture

If Tyler did not publish this The Bernanke would have never known.  Thnx Durden

any chance donations to ZH are tax deductible?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:16 | 3027128 pavman
pavman's picture

If anything its trending down.  If you look on the yearly sales since 2001, it was slowly increasing until 2007, then 2008 / 2009 sales rocketed up, where it peaked.  Sales were down in 2010, 2011 even further, and 2012 looks to be even worse. For a site that prides itself in its chart-based data references, I'm a bit disappointed.  It might just be time to take that profit from gold now.  In fact, its about 200K oz short from last year, which was about 200K oz short from 2010.  Anyone want to buy my gold?  I should probably cash out now anyway considering the fiscar criff.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:24 | 3027141 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I celebrated the Obama Victory with 1 oz Pamp Suisse gold bars. They were $35 cheaper. I also celebrated by buying Austrian Philharmonics Silver coins. They were over a buck cheaper. Guess I'm not that patriotic but at least the other Mints of the world got to participate.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 10:46 | 3027909 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Easy, there, pard. Stay at 1-OZ.

The bigger ones have a habit of turning into Tungsten.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 22:52 | 3028789 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Exaxctamundo! I like the 5 gram shits. Fit hits the Shan and the smaller denominations will be better.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:55 | 3027194 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Never mind the charts.  QE4 is on the the way and QE5 is on the back burner.  Didn't you know, it is Uncle Benny buying all that gold.  It's kinda like insider trading.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 20:55 | 3027196 whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

Can they make planchets under water ?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:07 | 3027209 ReptilianSlaveMaster
ReptilianSlaveMaster's picture

 And the bullion funds (notably CEF and GTU) sick performance this year now reflects the reality of gold and silver BEAR markets

1980 --- Gold traded for $800 an ounce
2012 --- Gold trades for around $1700 an ounce

If you factor in 32 years of INFLATION (an average 5% per annum), then it would take a NOMINAL gold price of $2100 an ounce simply for the forever pathetic gold bullion to match its REAL value in 1979 dollars (after accounting for all those 32 years of INFLATION)

In other words, gold has NEVER been in a real "bull" market these past 32 years. It remains in a BEAR market and it remains one of the worst performing commodities in history, with only the truly hopeless silver being worse, since silver has even FAILED to match its NOMINAL dollar high of $50 an ounce set in 1979 LOL

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 23:01 | 3027406 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Every dog has it's day. Anyone who bought gold or silver the last decade has done okay (unless you got in on the last recent top in 2011).

Dow/Gold ratio was in the mid 40's and now its at 7 or 8. So stocks are in a BEAR market compared to GOLD since 2000.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/DowGoldRatio.php

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 01:04 | 3027531 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

If you picked 42 years instead of 32 years (so, gold from $40something to $1700) then you would have invalidated your biased point.  I guess that's why you picked 32!   

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 09:44 | 3027808 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Actually gold is worth over 10k an ounce based on inflation. 

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 00:31 | 3028919 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

Well, Reptile play it smart and don't buy any. Go for those bonds, robot traded stocks, futures...wherever your analyses take you. Correct me if I am wrong but every investment is based on timing. Bonds, stocks, commodities, REIT's, all have had their good and bad days and none of them have moved in a straight line over any 32 year period.

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 01:35 | 3028971 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

are you still crying about that 799.99 dollar gold and the 49.99 dollar silver you bought on the very last day of that 1980 market and then sold for 249.00 and 3.30 dollars at the begin of this market?

Mon, 12/03/2012 - 02:04 | 3028988 Bear
Bear's picture

A Bear Market kinda like US Treasuries?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 00:40 | 3098185 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You are mismatching 1980 for 2020, and 1975 for 2012. Until gold drops 10% a year for 3 years in a row it's not a bear market. It won't happen.

goldpricemodel 2013 projection

goldpricemodel 2013 roc 52-week

gold 52 week ROC 1980 to 2011

And that's the mechanics of it. The REASON of it is that rates are at all time lows & exports & jobs are are in such great danger that voluntary deflation by valuing UP a paper currency will remove a person who does it from Central Bank and/or Presidential/Prime-Ministerial power. Suicide.

Not happening.

There is no bear market in gold & you know it.

Gold won't go back down to 1500. Won't go back down to 1300. Won't go back down to 900. Won't go back down to 650. Won't go back down to 260. Won't go back down to 35. All along the way at those numbers people like you have straight-faced lied or spoken insanity that it's a bear market bubble and it's over. You've been wrong every single time.

You show me the rates above 10%. You show me the rising property values. You show me the 3rd consecutive year of paper out-performing gold. Until then you have nothing.

SUGAR is at 30 year lows. Try that for an underperforming commodity. And as Jim Rogers says, then it's time to get to the other side of the boat.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:21 | 3027231 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

It is just Christmas Shopping.

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:49 | 3027388 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Black Friday discounts, you're saying?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 21:47 | 3027281 Lmo Mutton
Lmo Mutton's picture

transient?

Sat, 12/01/2012 - 22:48 | 3027387 mt paul
mt paul's picture

can one really put

a price on tradtion ..

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 01:08 | 3027535 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I can't walk away from the brilliant minds/ I'm sick...

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 07:49 | 3027731 sudzee
sudzee's picture

I don't think US mint gold eagle sales are that relevent. Four nines pure is what investors want. If you melt 1000 OZ into a bar it would not even be considered a london good bar.  

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:29 | 3028525 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

Sudzee has it right.

This cuts to the heart of why much of the RARE gold coin biz is a sham.

YES, numismatics is a great field for genuine collectables of historic value, but in the end, the melt pot determines the actual material value.

Anything beyond that is a measure of one's sales skills.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:28 | 3028524 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ineffective intervention stage has arrived....the returns have diminished to -0-.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:46 | 3028558 Dr.Engineer
Dr.Engineer's picture

SheepDog-One continue to lead the pack.

over and out for now.

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:31 | 3028527 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh and 1 more thing....FUCK YOU BEN SHALOM BERNANK! I hope you cant EVER sleep and have to O.D. on drugs!

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:37 | 3028541 oddball
oddball's picture

+ choke on his gold dildo.  

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 19:43 | 3028552 woggie
woggie's picture

the beast is on the gobble
and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly
http://youtu.be/ntmthFyaYzY

Sun, 12/02/2012 - 21:43 | 3028693 A Middle Child ...
A Middle Child of History's picture

Woggie would oft post to this site,
A link that was nothing but shite,
What a fool and a bore;
he couldn't possibly do more,
to waste so many a byte.

Dude, do you get off posting your shit across multiple sites Woggieford/Woggie/Will Ling? What kind of work must one do to have that much free time that one sits around waiting on multiple sites for new articles to post in order to leave a little digital doo-doo?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!