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New "Generational Low" For AAPL

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Unless you bought Apple stock before Valentine's Day this year, you are now underwater. In what must be the best evidence of how quickly a liquidity-fueled over-owned bucket of over-optimistic extrapolation can see sentiment swing violently against it, AAPL just plunged back (on heavy volume) through its previous "generational low" from 11/16/12. At under $505.75 ($505.58), AAPL is at its lowest level since mid-February and is almost 30% off its highs on 9/21/12 as it appears the much poo-poo'd Death Cross may just have been on to something. WWJTD? and do not forget to ask WWDKD?

 

 

The two major selling days when the professionals decided now was the time... middle pane - huge average trade size...


 

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Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:26 | 3064148 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

AAAAAARRRRGH we seem to have run out of greater fools!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:22 | 3064932 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Greater fools grow up so fast these days, don't they?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:12 | 3065087 Reggie Middleton
Sat, 12/15/2012 - 12:19 | 3066305 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Yes Reggie you certainly tried to warn those who were too blind to see the truth. Your best call is yet to come, EUROPE has entered the point of no return and soon almost every prediction you have made over the past few years since the first Greek bailout regarding Europe's complete collapse are going to happen in the sequence you have laid out. As you know this train wreck would have already happened if it wasn't for the 6T EU injection which has since been pillfered and squandered.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 17:19 | 3067082 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

People bleating about guns get +100 greens, and this man gets a mere +6?

"Do not give what is holy to the dogs; nor cast your pearls before swine, lest they trample them under their feet, and turn and tear you in pieces."

 

 

 

Still rocking that tie, Mr. Middleton. Salute.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:27 | 3064151 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Anybody know where the bottom is here?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:29 | 3064163 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

333.33

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:36 | 3064216 Freddie
Freddie's picture

So it is 666 divided by 2.  Satan's half life.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:53 | 3064628 superbroker1
superbroker1's picture

Head and shoulders anyone?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:02 | 3064866 hannah
hannah's picture

i dont like the shape of the head&shoulder. it is more like a hump on igor.....hump&shoulder.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 10:13 | 3068405 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

It looks more like a dismemberment than a SHS

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:45 | 3064283 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Anybody know where the bottom is here?

i10 FRN's

 

 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:51 | 3064317 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

1. Free up both your hands and drop them vertically to your sides

2. Turn palms facing forward

3. Squat down slightly

4. Rotate arms back 30 degrees, and then inwards 30 degrees

5. Bend elbows upwards and GRAB!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:56 | 3064345 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Somewhere between 450 and 475 (perhaps 468 ?).  

Given the technical damage, I don't think you'll see it rocket through 600 without flushing out the nervous Nellies first, after a more serious break below 500.  

Sure, dorks buying in their IRAs could push it a little above 570 by January, but I don't think it'll be "fixed", regardless of X-mas sales, until it gets to a point where the large public funds feel comfortable initiating a longer hold, and that may require more blood-letting.  It seems Tyler's average trade size histograms could provide the required confirmation, and an (at least temporary) "all clear" signal for the final push to 765 before the Great Bernank's committee minutes crush it back to 489 (likely the inflation worries, rather than the unemployment target).

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:52 | 3064617 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I doubt it. I consider AAPL to be where SUNW were around 2000. Nowhere to go but down,

Consider this:

http://www.pandawill.com/window-yuandao-n70hd-dual-core-tablet-pc-7-inch...

A dual core A9 1.6GHz (granted, could be iPad's A15), with a Mali400 (again, the SGX543/554 are better, but more costly), and with a 1280x800 screen resolution (1024x768 for the iPad Mini) - all at $144.

Ridiculous bargain, compared to the iPad/Mini. It's crunch time, and Apple's margins only have one way to go.

Oh, and if you are shopping for screen resolution alone, then the Nexus 10's 2560x1600 is the one to get.

In the mobile phone space Apple lost the lead ages ago. Check out the Oppo Find 5 - a 5" 1920x1080 mobile about to be released. Personally, I like the Samsung Galaxy Note 2.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 18:46 | 3064814 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Surely, you're not suggesting that stocks move up or down based on strategic fundamentals ?! :) 

When CrAAPL's weekly market cap movements exceed the entire value of our nation's public utilities, any talk of fundamental or competetive influences go out the nearest Windows (no pun intended).  

I agree its days are numbered, but believe the final crash will come only after an initial mini-dump (like a toy poodle on a bike trail), followed by institutional mania (as opposed to the hedge fund game playiing that moved it from 350 to 700) that first pushes it to a new all-time high due to its "cheap" valuation, before the reality of your wisdom (and the fraud of "Apple TV", ha !) takes hold. So, you're right, just a bit early.

The final coffin-nailer:  a revamped Zune phone/TV/personal groomer combo, running Windows 8.2, will take down the mighty fruit once and for all.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:28 | 3064154 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Where's Kevin Henry when you need him. We need a big John Henry to mine that shit for the railroad or something!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:31 | 3064183 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

it looks like the only thing keeping AAPL from dropping below $500 is the unwinding of weekly itm puts.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:33 | 3064191 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Overpriced electronics with a 6 month product cycle whose functional superiority is at best a wash and whose marginal value is purely esthetic wiil be revealed as a fad, and we know what happens to fads....

Did people really think that mass produced consumer electronics would become a Veblen good?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:34 | 3064205 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When you say "did people", whom are you refering to?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:40 | 3064246 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Investors that got into Apple above 500....

Hell, no matter how you cut, picking it up at 100 was a hell of investment...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:43 | 3064259 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Right, it's a fashion company that sells electronics.  I was talking to a woman whose iPhone died 72 hrs. after the one-year warranty expired.  Two hours on hold with customer service when the landline phone went to dialtone, and now a trip downtown during rush hour to only one of two apple stores around.  Remind me again on why they're so great.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:58 | 3064644 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

WMT to be selling these iPad 4s in store for $399 with a $30 gift card.

Worms in the apple core.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:34 | 3064203 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I love Apple.  They are the bestest company there ever was.  Please say only nice things about them. 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:35 | 3064207 gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

um...broke neckline at $525 this morning on a valid H&S pattern here...downside target 350...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:42 | 3064260 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Head and shoulders > next stop> knees and toes.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:34 | 3064550 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

+1 for the belly laugh!

And it can kiss my ass on the way to knees and toes.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 09:49 | 3066081 CPL
CPL's picture

$20 for AAPL.

Jobs is not coming back.  The company without him isn't worth shit.  

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:36 | 3064212 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

460 or so is the trend imo.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:39 | 3064231 EZT
EZT's picture

what do you mean by WWJTD and WWDKD

 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:41 | 3064255 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

better yet, who's DK?  JT i presume is justin timberlake.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:47 | 3064293 i8emallup
i8emallup's picture

I think he would dk it.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:14 | 3064446 TruthInSunshine
Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:20 | 3064472 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Beaker!!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:22 | 3064485 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Bieber.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:24 | 3064500 Boozer
Boozer's picture

Donna Karen

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 01:24 | 3094255 MeelionDollerBogus
Fri, 12/14/2012 - 18:43 | 3064806 credittrader
credittrader's picture

Joe Terranova and Doug Kass I suspect... given their 'generational low' calls...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:38 | 3064234 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

ring-a-ding ding.....

 

who is it? gap! gap who?

 

gap....419=443 ish

 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:40 | 3064238 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Must be a bunch of unlucky guys taking profits after this stock has run from $100 to $500, and failed to sell at $700.

No worries, they are now dryhumping some low grade hookers like U.S. Steel, up 6% today, or some new "leaders" like ADBE, charging to world record highs on world record volume.

Always a buck to be made somwhere.

Thanks to:

1) Generational low interest rates

2) Crashing gasoline prices

3) An "Activist and Interventionist Fed"

4) Every other central bank loosening monetary policy

5) The coming "Centrally Planned Five-Year Global Economic Boom" in 2013 - 2018.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:48 | 3064306 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Crashing gas prices lol.

No wonder you decided you could come back.  Gas prices are lower and you were dead wrong about them for awhile.

Will you leave again if gas goes above $4 again?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:55 | 3064327 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

You paid $100 for AAPL?  Ha, sucker, I paid $8.25 in 2002 and cashed out at $667 this year.  Had ever penny in it too.  How do you like them AAPLs!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 18:07 | 3064457 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I paid $5 a share for 3 million shares back in 2002 and sold at the exact high on 9/21/12.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:43 | 3064270 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Doug Kass says new all-time generational low is in!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:44 | 3064275 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Apple suppliers getting crushed today(CRUS, OVTI, SWKS, JBL, QCOM, BRCM).  They just keep on falling.  The trend is not friendly.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:47 | 3064286 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

SMH down a paltry 30 cents today, hardly a "failing trend".

 

Gold miners?  Well, that's another story.

 

LOL.....

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:52 | 3064320 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Miners have been getting monkey hammered for sure.  This bodes well for bullion long term though, for the less equity the miners have the less digging they will be doing. 

Also they may wish to shelf some of their PM for better times, reducing supply on the market, and jacking prices up.

That's just a theory though, we'll see if any of that happens.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:46 | 3064287 Flounder
Flounder's picture

$478 Billion will get you all of AAPL or ALL of IBM ($217B) and GE ($228B) and DE ($33B).

 

God bless the little children.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:07 | 3064412 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Remember when "generational" referred to lineal descendants and not Apple product releases?  Those were the days....

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:06 | 3064413 w00dmann
w00dmann's picture

I don't get it.  I don't hold this stock, but their p/e ratio is very reasonable; they generate massive profits; and this current quarter is expected to be huge.  Why does their stock price keep falling?   Truly curious.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 21:46 | 3065386 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

They are a high cost producer of a commodity product(s).  

Ask the pc makers.  Ask Nokia, Motorola, etc.  Everyone has their day in the sun, but for a finite period.  Remember SONY?  

 

If AAPL runs to new highs on an apple tv, prepare for the short of a lifetime once that is played out.  Margins, Margins, Margins.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:13 | 3064449 marginnayan
marginnayan's picture

How come CNBC Fast Money Gurus not buying with both hands this new generational low? LOL.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:20 | 3064471 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Didn't CNBC say Apple was going to $1,000?   i don't watch TV as it is for tards who like supporting The Matrix.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:49 | 3064616 August
August's picture

Hey, plenty of tards live kick-ass lives!

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 07:51 | 3065981 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

My first wife was 'tarded. She's a CNBC anchor now.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:20 | 3064475 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Pension fund booboo.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:28 | 3064515 Freddie
Freddie's picture

They should have invested in Honey Boo Boo.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:24 | 3064491 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

I backed up the truck today in apple.  Beautiful double bottom formed.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:22 | 3064930 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Once a fanboy, always a fanboy.

Wheren't you get the guy who was telling us to buy at $700 because it was headed to $1,000 soon?

Yes sir, by gawd, I think you are.

 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 17:58 | 3064642 BORT
BORT's picture

What's MSFT for $250, Alex?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:05 | 3064871 hannah
hannah's picture

we gotta drop down to like 490 and then retrace ...then i will feel better about appledropping to 360-400.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:10 | 3064887 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Who was the 'analyst' predicting APPL would go to $1100 back in September? I want to remember that name, and/or shop, so I can mock them in the future...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 21:27 | 3065335 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

friday fun...skip to 1 minute 39 to get the real deal on poo poo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vafxnkWndI

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 15:18 | 3066812 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Off-topic tip: if you right click a youtube video at the point you want to start at, and select "Copy URL at current time", the link will skip to there automatically. You can also add #t=Xs where X = time in seconds (e.g. 132 = 2 min 12 seconds in) to the end of an URL to do it manually.

It's a handy short-cut.

 

Like so: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_vafxnkWndI&feature=player_detailpage#t=98s

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!