An Hour In The Company Of Kyle Bass

Tyler Durden's picture

Last year's AmeriCatalyst interview with Kyle Bass provided much more color than the normal 30-second soundbites that we are subjected to when serious hedge fund managers are exposed to mainstream media. This year, Bass was the keynote speaker and in the following speech (followed by Q&A), the fund manager provides 60 minutes of eloquence on the end of the grand experiment and its consequences. From Money Printing and Central Bank Balance sheets to Japan and the psychology of the current situation - which in many cases trumps the quantitative data - the question remains, "when will this unravel" as opposed to "if?"; Bass provides his fact-based heresy against the orthodoxy of economic thought "On The Financial Nature Of Things" extending well beyond his recent note. Must watch (there's no football or X-Factor on tonight).

Make sure to stay tuned to the last 2 minutes when Kyle succinctly sums up our society...

Clip not embeddable - click image for jump to YouTube.

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DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Must see, I saw it the other night.  It's worth it.

+ 1, Tyler!

sitenine's picture

DoChen or Tylers or anyone please, would you happen to know where to lay hands on his slide deck? Still an absolutely amazing presentation without them though.

seek's picture

Yeah, that's the only issue, he keeps refering to the slides and they never pan to them!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I THINK I saw this at Ann Barnhardt's site (, no slides there either, sorry.

GetZeeGold's picture



Ann just needs to break out of her shell a tad. She's such a timid girl.

Anne Ominous's picture

I like how he says 'shit' and 'fuck'.

JackT's picture

Bass doesn't pull any punches

Freddie's picture

When Bob Pisani interviewed Kyle at his office in Texas - Kyle has a cammo'ed sniper rifle on his wall or mantle.

I think it was am M-24 or maybe a better sniper rifle.  I never saw that on any office mantle.

Guns and gold - bitchez!

F Hollywood, F TV, F Tarantino and all the media scum who want to disarm you!  Boycott their sh*t.

Max in St Moritz's picture



another barnyard libertarian

guns, trucks, knives, big foot and drop top camaros - bitchezzz!

f 'n A !!!

Rick Blaine's picture

Yes...he is.

A damn rich one too.

He also probably knows that "Bigfoot" is one word.


ZeroAvatar's picture


GetZeeGold's picture



The Fed is watching him like a hawk....if he melts even one of those suckers....he's gone.

Haole's picture

So the U of Texas bought over a billion in gold and as a fuduciary Kyle feels secure that all that gold, sitting in the fucking "COMEX system" of all places according to him, is not only theirs but there in the first place?  Holy fuck... As long as it's all IOUs to the university and not his own personal counterparty risk, it's all good?  Wow, thanks for the video Freddie.

edb5s's picture

I am not sure where you got this from, but in another interview of Bass (it may have been Americatalyst last year) he spoke about taking delivery of the gold he buys.


Edit: here it is -

Haole's picture

He says it in the video clip Freddie posted.

He may take delivery of his own but he expressly says that the U of T gold is stored and insured in the COMEX system through a "deal" with HSBC only "it's just ours".  Uh...k

I don't know about what Kyle does with his personal finances/gold/etc. but am I the only one who sees a problem with the U of T actually holding over a billion in gold, particularly from a "fuduciary's" standpoint?

edb5s's picture

I would love to see the full view of the "dollar" behind him.  Looks to have a picture of Lenin on it with Hank Paulson's signature.

fonzannoon's picture

How can Europe's banks be overlevered and undercapitalized and not have blown up yet?

ZeroAvatar's picture

Ever hear of 'outright monetary transactions'?

eigenvalue's picture

2 problems with Kyle's thesis

1. He mentioned few people want to assume the debt of their extended families. Ergo, Germany won't assume the debt of the PIIGS. 

But when somebody assumes the debt of his extended families, he spends his own money. When Merkel assumes the debt of the PIIGS, she spends other people's (German taxpapers') money.

2. He mentioned Japan's current account is gonna see continous deficit. Japan will need external financing to absorb new JGB issuances. Therefore JGB yields will rise.

But what if the BOJ prints to absorb all the new issuances. The Fed did it in the 1940s. Inflation was rampant but the treasury yield didn't go up. 

EARLPEARL's picture


eigenvalue's picture

Yeah, "when" is all that matters. By and by, I think it makes perfect sense to short bunds and oats. But Paulson shorted bunds this year and got burnt.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

It's not only Paulson that got burned shorting soverign bonds... there are mountains of bodies that thought they had the timing down... but didn't.

dmger14's picture

I think Merkel will have problems staying in power if she spend German taxpayers' money much longer.  On the Japan situation, nobody but the BOJ would buy bonds if they are printing.  I could see velocity and inflation through loss of confidence if the BOJ was the only player.

bobthecat's picture

A Hour in the company of Kyle Bass*

fonzannoon's picture

It's funny how Kyle talks about optomism bias and pattern recognition. His example of things that are repetitive..."Japan is self funding". He seems to miss his own optomism bias. You could use the same example for "don't fight the fed". He is a little too self assured that Japan and Europe are the real problems and the US is not. He might be missing his own point.

chump666's picture

He is a safe haven DXY bull.

Same with Hendry...I think.

fonzannoon's picture

His own math, logic and facts makes the dollar anything but a safe haven. I think it is the boyscout in him that makes him a DXY bull.

He is talking about Japan and money printing and buying their own bonds and denouncing monetizing defecits at the same time......THATS NOT THE FED?

MachoMan's picture

He will be judged on his trades, not his lectures...  for anyone that has the ability to talk their book, you can presume he or she is always doing so...  He, like everyone else, tends to speak in generalities...  the devil is in the details.

chump666's picture

Hence you can still bet against Japan if they continue on that path, through the JPY short.  Overall the 'safe haven' of Japan status could collapse before the US.  They are in a worst shape at this point in time.  It's a strange paradox, as I mentioned on here about safe haven trades a day of or so back, the DYX could be bid as the last gasp trade before the reset.

ZeroAvatar's picture

It could be, but, with China so anxious to take over Reserve Currency status, I have a feeling they will exploit the current economic chaos in some as of yet unknown fashion.


Black Swan, Chinese style.  The hammer's gonna drop somewhere, soon.  I can just feel it.


Probably when US invades Iran, that'll be the trigger for China. 

eatthebanksters's picture

Hendry and Bass are two of the best...hard to argue with those boys.

eigenvalue's picture

And he mentioned the average house price slump was about 6 years if I remember correctly. Therefore, he believed that the housing market had bit the bottom. This sounds very much like Bernanke's "We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit."

kito's picture

Big +1 are absolutely right....he is BLIND TO THE SEVERITY OF THIS COUNTRY'S PROBLEMS........

fonzannoon's picture

@Kito and Vast-dom, in the last 2 mins he calmly seems to say the US will QE itself into hyperinflation at some point. I can buy his food and shale argument to a point. He looses me with his housing thesis.

who knows anymore. Crazy.

vast-dom's picture

fonz: he waffled a bit, and was vague on conclusions for US and i believe is not appreciating some vital variables. but i like KB a lot, which doesn't mean he won't be potentially extremely wrong. 


i do not agree with his shale outlook either. adjusted for price over time factoring in global supplies, it will not be the godsend that too many people believe it'll be...

infinity8's picture

Well, he can't give it ALL away, can he? I think he "appreciates" plenty. And I like him.

*edit: I don't agree on shale either.

Freddie's picture

Maybe he does not want to be "heart attacked" by Dear mullah and his NWO goons.  Yeah Kyle is in Texas but no one is safe from our beloved Islamic.  

Maybe it is not too safe to talk about the U.S..  The guy has a mega bug out compound in Texas with lots of land, bunkers, food, precious metals, water and guns.  Lots of guns.

resurger's picture

He's saying that US will be ranked 3rd, thats after Japan and Europe

They should run for a gold medal imho.

falak pema's picture

rich's man analysis in the race to the bottom.

What I hear in this presentation is that the great structural reset, according to his number crunching, is imminent (2/3 years). That the root cause is the Banking sector imbalance added to the sovereign debt pile and the runaway ratio between debt interest payment and government tax earnings; especially if thru past banks non restructuring that debt gets MORE socialised in coming years (French example) and that interest rates on bonds go up as the rates are too low and this is unsustainable. 

Which means ALL of first world, irrespective of ORDER, aka Jap/Euro/UK/USA will lose big as their debts are unsustainable. Lots of pain. (Not that this is NEWS to us who read TD/ZH!)

But guess what? Those who are NOT in debt, will come out on top, unless there is social unrest and War in their lands.

So who are the winners in this race: stable non first world countries with current account surpluses : Brazil, Venezuela, CHile, some arab nations if their political structures allow it, Turkey, Russia (?), CHina (?), India (?). And amongst the first world : Germany, USa, Canada, Australia.

Now we know. Where to invest; if we have anything left! 

Crazy world drowning in debt and now entering red zone of BIG social unrest. 

What this analysis does not address, as part of this structural reset, is a move in IMF, and thru bilateral deals amongst major players, to move away from USD reserve currency status and the IMPACT of that on financial markets...(unless I missed something).

Now that may reflect his home grown optimism biais. But it is an element that would/could be major game changer in the financial restructuring of the sovereign nations of tomorrow's world. 


ajax's picture




Great post but you forgot to mention: Kyle Bass has a television in his clothes closet !!

chump666's picture

He is so right.

The big issues are civil unrest/strife, his points about Greece and the 'big' riots is correct, the media and market blow off another predictable reminder that the market is just underwritten by the QE environment. And now we are at the denial Rome-is-falling-to-sh*t stage, and so the markets have NOT priced in major civil unrest throughout the world.

icanhasbailout's picture

I personally would prefer 30 minutes with Lauren Lyster

ImReady's picture

I doubt you could last that long. 

Assetman's picture

I'm sure he is willing to die trying...

chump666's picture


that was gold...


FoeHammer's picture

@ImReady...Oh man. Too funny +1

IridiumRebel's picture

Think of baseball....ooh!....or Ben Bernanke! That'll get ya to 30 minutes....probably 60!