2012 - 'Year Of Living Dangerously' In Review

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog,

On January 8 of this year I posted my annual prediction article for this year – 2012 – The Year of Living Dangerously. Now it’s time to assess my complete and utter cluelessness when it comes to predicting things within a given time frame. Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don’t. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the “experts” will be making their 2013 predictions. I haven’t seen too many of these experts going back and honestly assessing their 2012 predictions, which didn’t happen.

What I’ve learned is that “experts” usually have an agenda. Their predictions are designed to convince you to buy the stocks they recommend or purchase their newsletter. Many of these “experts” work for Wall Street, the corporate MSM, a political party or corporate interest. Half of the “experts” represent the status quo and want the masses to think everything is just fine and will steadily improve. The other half are fear mongers that want to scare you into buying their products with predictions of impending collapse at any moment. I like to read the predictions of a wide variety of pundits, bloggers, and so called journalists, while understanding they probably have an agenda.

Personally, I try to make my predictions based on the facts I observe and try to gather. My agenda is to prepare my family for whatever these facts tell me is likely to happen. My website is just a place for me to post my thoughts. I don’t depend upon it for a living and I have nothing to sell. That doesn’t mean that my biases, hopes, and desires do not color my predictions. As I reread my article yesterday, I found myself thinking, “when is this long winded gasbag going to actually make some predictions?” My article was supposed to make 2012 predictions but ended up trying to tie 2012 into the Fourth Turning Crisis paradigm. When I eventually got to the predictions, I realized that a monkey throwing darts could have done just as well. If I was one of those “experts”, I’d say that I wasn’t wrong, I was just early. Of course, that is a cop-out. Being early is the same as being wrong.

I’m more interested in why I was wrong. It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system. But enough excuses. Let’s see how wrong I was:

  • All the episodes which will occur in 2012 will have at their core one of the three elements described by Strauss & Howe in 1997: Debt, Civic Decay, or Global Disorder.

This was a generic prediction. Those are a lot easier to take credit for as being right. Considering the country is about to go over the fiscal cliff, I’d say that debt has had a major impact in 2012. The disgusting political campaign, the anger over efforts to ban guns, urban violence, 20% of nation on food stamps, and real unemployment rate of 20% certainly prove that civic decay is accelerating. Uprisings in Egypt, Syria and across the Middle East intensified. Israel and Iran got closer to inevitable war. Japan and China are on the verge of conflict. The U.S. is still bogged down in Afghanistan and has failed miserably in efforts to democratize the Middle East. I’d say we have had a bit of global disorder.

  • At best, the excessive levels of sovereign debt will slow economic growth to zero or below in 2012. At worst, interest rates will soar as counties attempt to rollover their debt and rolling defaults across Europe will plunge the continent into a depression.

The best case scenario for European bankers and politicians came to pass in 2012. The GDP for the European Union went negative in the 3rd quarter of 2012. The southern European nations are experiencing depression level conditions with soaring unemployment, social unrest, and higher interest rates. But even Germany is experiencing a dramatic slowdown. The bankers continue to call the shots, with various debt schemes designed to keep the bankers whole, while throwing the people to the wolves. They have postponed the day of reckoning, but it is coming. They do not have a liquidity problem. They have a solvency problem. You cannot resolve a debt problem by creating more debt.

  • The truth that no one wants to acknowledge is the standard of living for every person in Europe, the United States and Japan will decline. The choice is whether the decline happens rapidly by accepting debt default and restructuring or methodically through central bank created inflation that devours the wealth of the middle class. Debt default would result in rich bankers losing vast sums of wealth and politicians accepting the consequences of their phony promises. Bankers and politicians will choose inflation.

This was an easy one. Bankers and politicians will never choose pain for themselves when they can shift it to the people. Bernanke and the rest of the world’s central bankers, in cooperation with their captured politicians, have chosen to inflate the debt away by printing money. They trust in the shallowness and ignorance of the masses to not notice as their standard of living steadily declines.

Controlling the distribution of data allows the oligarchs to falsify the true level of inflation and the corporate MSM dutifully spews the propaganda to the masses.

  • The European Union will not survive 2012 in its current form. Countries are already preparing for the dissolution. Politicians and bankers will lie and print until the day they pull the plug on the doomed Euro experiment.

I was 100% wrong in this assessment. The politicians and bankers are most certainly lying, but they have succeeded in keeping the EU intact. The dissolution would imperil too many bankers. Whether they can keep it intact through 2013 is another question.

  • The National Debt will be $16.5 trillion when the next president takes office in January 2013.

Barack Obama will be inaugurated on January 20, 2013. As of December 26, 2012 the National Debt stood at $16.34 trillion and according to Turbo Tax Timmy will hit the debt limit of $16.4 trillion on December 31. He will use accounting gimmicks and not fund government pensions to not exceed the limit, but the debt will continue to accumulate at a rate of $3.5 billion per day. The National Debt will be at approximately $16.47 trillion when Obama starts his 2nd term. Close enough for government work.

  • As debt servicing grows by the day, the economy losses steam. The excessive and increasing debt levels will lead to a renewed recession in 2012.

Despite the fact that the government and corporate media continue to report economic growth and a barely positive GDP, a recession did begin this past summer. Using a true level of inflation, GDP has been negative since 2006.

The horrific Christmas retail sales and declining corporate profits reveal the truth. Fourth quarter GDP will be negative and the government will eventually adjust the prior quarters lower. Excel spreadsheet models, fake inflation figures and seasonal adjustments cannot deny reality or the facts.

  • As foreclosures rise a self-reinforcing loop will develop. Home prices will fall as banks dump houses at lower prices, pushing millions more into a negative equity position. Home prices will fall another 5% to 10% in 2012, with a couple years to go before bottoming. 

Another 100% wrong prediction. I again underestimated the willingness of corrupt Wall Street bankers, in cahoots with the Federal government, to fraudulently boost home prices by withholding foreclosures from the market and creating a fake housing shortage. The Feds have willingly used Fannie, Freddie and the FHA to guarantee more bad mortgage loans and put the taxpayer further on the hook for the billions of bad debt. Bennie has swooped in and bought up billions of toxic mortgage debt from the criminal Wall Street banks, while driving mortgage rates to record low levels. With this massive intervention, they have managed to increase home prices by 4% and increase home sales to levels 60% below the peak. Job well done.

  • The working age population will increase by 1.7 million, the number of people employed will go up by 1 million, but the official unemployment rate will drop to 7% as the BLS reveals that 10 million people decided to relax and leave the workforce. Surely I jest. The government manipulated unemployment rate will rise above 9%, while the real rate will surpass 25%.

I made what I thought was an outrageous prediction as an attempt at humor, but my outrageous prediction was closer to the truth. The working age population has grown by 3.7 million people, the number of employed people has gone up by only 2.7 million, 2.4 million people decided to kick back and leave the workforce, resulting in the unemployment rate “plunging” from 8.7% to 7.7%.

Measuring unemployment on par with the method used during the 1930s would put the level at 23% today. But you should trust the BLS. Why would they lie?

  • Ben Bernanke, Wall Street shysters and Barack Obama want you to be drawn in by the allure of short-term gains based on hopes of QE3. The stock market will be volatile in 2012 with stocks falling 20% when it becomes evident the country is going back into recession. Ben will try to ride to the rescue with QE3 as he buys up more toxic mortgage debt. Wall Street will do their usual touchdown dance celebration, but the bloom will fall off this rose fast, as quantitative easing has proven to be a failure in stimulating economic growth.Gridlock in Washington D.C., chaotic national conventions, and the implosion of Europe will contribute to the market finishing down by at least 15% for the year.

I hope you didn’t follow my stock market advice as it looks like I missed by only 25% or 30% with this prediction. It is amazing what zero interest rates for Wall Street banks, QE to infinity, high frequency trading supercomputers, and fake Wall Street earnings can do for a stock market. Since the recession has not been acknowledged and rigged corporate profits still sit near their peak, the stock market has continued to rise. I applaud the oligarchs for their ability to extract every last dime from the pockets of the middle class in their avaricious plundering of America. Bernie Madoff is proudly admiring their work from his prison cell.

  • The average price of oil will exceed $100 during 2012 resulting in the highest average gas price in history for American drivers. These high prices, along with various weather related issues will keep food prices elevated, with 5% or higher increases likely. This should spur a few more peasant revolutions around the globe.

I nailed this prediction. Americans paid the highest average price for a gallon of gasoline in history during 2012. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat and soybeans soared by 7% to 20%, as the high oil prices and drought drove food prices higher. Meat prices will rise in 2013 as herds had to be thinned in 2012 because of the high feed costs. But don’t worry. The BLS will just adjust the food inflation away as they assume you switch from hamburger to cat food.

  • Gold will finish the year higher. As always, it will be volatile and manipulated by the powers that be. A drop below $1,500 in the beginning of the year is possible, but when Ben announces QE3, it will be off to the races. I expect gold to reach $1,900 by year end. Silver will be more volatile, but will likely reach $40 by year end.

Gold will finish the year higher for the twelfth consecutive year. It was volatile, with a high of $1,796 and a low of $1,527. It will finish the year in the mid $1,600s. Silver was equally volatile, but also up for the year. It ranged between $37.50 and $26. It will finish the year in the $30 range. The powers that be know that rising gold and silver prices reveal their deceitful inflationary master plan, so they use all of their market manipulative powers to suppress the prices of these metals. The higher our debt, the higher their prices will go. When the confidence game is revealed to be a Ponzi scheme, the prices of gold and silver will be unleashed.

  • Old line mall based retailers like Sears and J.C. Penney die a slow agonizing death as they stagger into the sunset like Montgomery Ward, Circuit City and thousands before them. 

I was wrong about JC Penney. They are dying a fast agonizing death as the idiot savant from Apple has driven them straight into the ground, with sales plunging by 26% versus last year. It isn’t a matter of if, but when this employer of 159,000 declares bankruptcy. The “brilliant” (Jim Cramer says so) Eddie Lampert has Sears on a glide path to liquidation. This Christmas season will reveal these CEOs to be frauds.

  • The Occupy Movement will become more extreme with more disruptions of the economic system with less warning so the authorities don’t have time to prepare. I expect more cyber hacking into Wall Street, government, and media computer networks, causing disarray and uncertainty regarding financial information. I expect the Democratic and Republican presidential conventions to be overrun by protestors. The authorities will respond with excessive force, resulting in further violent protests in other cities.  

Another 100% miss. The Occupy Movement splintered and petered out after being brutally dismantled by the armed mercenaries of the status quo. There were some cyber-attacks, but they caused minimal disruption. The masses are satiated with their techno-gadgets and reality TV shows. No one protested. No one cared.

  • The Federal government grows ever more panicked by the knowledge that its Ponzi scheme economy is going to collapse. This is why passage of the NDAA and the future passage of SOPA are so important to them. Imprisonment of citizens without charge and shutting down the only remaining means of truth – the Internet – are essential to retaining their power and control over the masses. At the same time, gun sales are at record levels. Critical thinking Americans can see the writing on the wall and no longer trust corrupt politicians of either party. Arming yourself and buying physical gold and silver is a prudent act in today’s world.

The outrage over SOPA, led by the alternative online media, stopped it from being passed. The tyrants continue their efforts to suppress free speech on the internet, as Facebook shuts down pages that do not conform to the corporate fascist government agenda. Gun sales are off the charts, as critical thinking people no longer trust the corrupt government. Physical gold and silver sales are soaring as critical thinking people no longer trust our corrupt economic system.

  • The ruling elite hand selected puppets for the 2012 presidential election are Obama and Romney. They are virtually interchangeable and both are acceptable to the Wall Street oligarchs. The monkey wrench in the gears is Ron Paul. He will run as a 3rd Party candidate and focus a light on the crony capitalism that passes for free markets in America today. He will be vilified by both parties and their media mouthpieces, but if he gains traction I fear an unfortunate accident will befall him. Either way, he will have a dramatic impact on the debate and the outcome of the 2012 election.

With this prediction I allowed my hope to overcome reason. The oligarchs are too powerful. Ron Paul’s grassroots campaign made the oligarchs extremely uncomfortable. He drew huge crowds of young people on college campuses across the country. His message of liberty and freedom resonated with millions, but he was no match for the billionaires that call the shots in this country. He was silenced by the Republican establishment and chose not to run as a 3rd party candidate. The puppet on the left won the election. The puppet on the right retreated to one of his six mansions. Ron Paul rode off into the sunset knowing he gave it his best shot.

  • It seems more likely by the day that someone will do something stupid in or around Iran and the Persian Gulf will explode into a virtual hell on earth. The unintended consequences of such a development will far outweigh the intended consequences. The revolutions, protests, and brewing civil wars in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Iraq will flare up even if Iran doesn’t explode into a shooting war. The tensions in the Middle East will keep oil prices above $100, despite a world plunging into recession.

The showdown between Israel and Iran did not happen in 2012, despite increasingly angry rhetoric. The stealth war with Iran began, as economic sanctions and cyber warfare have begun to destroy their economy and impoverish their people. Revolutions, riots, protests and civil war spread across the Middle East throughout 2012 resulting in high oil prices and a worldwide economic contraction which is picking up speed as 2012 comes to a conclusion.

  • China’s hard landing will arrive in 2012. Keynesianism on steroids has failed as they’ve built more than enough vacant malls, vacant cities, vacant condo towers, and bridges to nowhere. Property prices will plunge, exports will decline, and peasants will revolt as food and energy prices push them over the edge.

China has come in for a hard landing. With a government more corrupt than even ours, their reported economic data would make a BLS drone blush with pride. Property prices are falling. Exports are falling. But somehow they report economic growth of 7%. And the MSM dutifully reports this gibberish as truth. Unrest and protests are a daily occurrence in China, but they are immediately crushed. The Chinese authorities continue to clamp down on the internet and media. China’s economic system is a rotting Keynesian nightmare.

I also raised the generic possibilities of earthquakes, hurricanes, pandemics and terrorist attacks. I noted that a terrorist attack in a public venue might cause a government over-reaction. Even though the slaughter of young school children by a deranged mental defective doesn’t constitute a terrorist attack, the reaction by government officials and their liberal control freak allies in the mainstream media are exactly what I feared. Every tragedy is used to gain more control over our lives and take away our Constitutional rights in the name of safety and security. The ignorant masses willingly give up their freedom and liberty, believing their Orwellian government protectors will look out for them. As we enter 2013, time grows shorter. The power hungry psychopaths continue to pillage and plunder. Our unsustainable economic system struggles under the weight of debt, despair and delusion as the endgame approaches. The willfully ignorant populace is lost in their techno-narcissistic dream world.

Will 2013 be the year it all collapses in a flaming heap of rubble? I don’t know. Maybe you should ask an “expert”.

It guarantees to be an interesting year. I’ll be hiring Bonzo chimp to help me make my 2013 predictions in the next week or so.

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Fri, 12/28/2012 - 20:54 | 3103789 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Better to make a mistake you admit than the ones who do know better so do keep up the good fight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkAxuqrVNBM

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 20:55 | 3103792 Cunnial
Cunnial's picture

Jesus bro, it took you less than 2 minutes to read that and pen a response... Tyler your readers are turning algo!

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:30 | 3103857 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

DavidPierre has always been an anti-Quinn-bot.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 20:59 | 3103793 Cunnial
Cunnial's picture

....

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 20:58 | 3103798 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Other than all of that, Happy New Year.............

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:00 | 3103800 Racer
Racer's picture

Repeated inbreeding of the 0.1% creates an unviable entity

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:37 | 3103873 Salon
Salon's picture

They pull up some quality breeding stock from wild populations every once in a while.

Keeps the gene pool healthier and physical bodies stronger

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:15 | 3103830 booboo
booboo's picture

Obama and his "kill list"?

other then that I predict the Jan 1st following this Tuesday it will be 2014.

there will be a jack ass banker dick sucker in the White House.

congress will have a single digit approval rating.

Japan will be radioactive

There will be several thousand more American soldiers coming home in body bags fighting worthless "conflicts"  

 

 

 

 

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 10:07 | 3104437 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Right on, Booboo.  Those are the hard truths that all the ZH "deep thinkers"(LOL!) miss at every turn--even the 4th...

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 15:28 | 3104923 DosZap
DosZap's picture

There will be several thousand more American soldiers coming home in body bags fighting worthless "conflicts"

Yep, a little known fact, the Revolutionary war for Independence, laster approx 8yrs, and total American death toll was UNDER 5000.

How many have sacrificed their lives in Iraq, and Afghanistan?, well over 6000.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:16 | 3103835 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

If it does not makes sense then I often find it helpful to turn off the disbelief filter, eliminate assumptions and start creating scenarios under which it makes sense, given the known facts.

Why would we ever start by assuming what THEY tell us is true?

Given that we live in an existence that our brain interface tells us cannot possibly exist and yet does (but we never question that, right?) it is not too far fetched that what our brain interface believes to be is not really at all.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:14 | 3103945 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

There are multiple levels to all of this:

On the top level: WE think we are fighting the establishment (bankers and governmet and all).

The next level down is explained in the short video below. We are actually playing exactly into the hands of those who fund it all (create and distribute the money supply). It takes money to run ZH, Alex Jones etc ... the media on direction creates conflict where no conflict existed to destabilize the system... gun control, between bankers and people, between police and people and it makes the people fearful and angry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HS3hfZYtObI&feature=player_embedded

Those are the easy things to determine. So, we can assume that nothing is by chance, everything is planned, the fiscal cliff, the loss of control, the creation of dependence etc. IT IS ALL PLANNED! It does not matter if we know that 9/11 and Sandy Hook are false flags because that just increases the level of conflict.

It gets a little more difficult to believe at this point because if IT IS ALL PLANNED, as it must be to work. Then who are they (are they a large or small close knit group that does not let in outsiders? They must be close knit and they must be able to communicte secretly and rapidly around the entire world.)

How then do they manage this coordination? ... because it is coordinated.

And lastly what is their REAL reason for doing it? I have a hard time believing that they are doing it for trivial reasons, such as transitory power in this world. I mean really, what is the point? It only makes sense to me that there is some bigger reason... but the only reasons that I can come up with are pretty esoteric.

My advice is to love the bankers, the cops, the muslims and all of our brothers in this existence. As for those others who probably come from somewhere else and are causing us pain, it is probably best to love them too.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:00 | 3104044 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

You always move from a position of Love, and excrete the viruses that wish to bring you harm.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:16 | 3104067 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

You said:  They must be close knit and they must be able to communicte secretly and rapidly around the entire world.)

 

I suspect much of this info is disseminated at the Bildergerger meeting.  But, as you say, they must have a 'batphone' or something

 

I ask myself these same questions.  One must strike at the root, but the root is buried, branches out in many directions and is difficult to outline.

 

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:31 | 3104095 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

Not anymore. All their White Papers told us what they are doing and who they are.

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 00:20 | 3104158 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

I think the coordination comes from them being part of an emergent hive mind called lucifer.  This mind runs the financial system, the bureaucracy, the media, the police, the justice system, even the culture- and most people who are part of it don't even realize it exists.  Only the top puppetmasters have esoteric means of communicating with it, discerning its will, and gaining power. 

Check out this (long) article about the extraordinary degree of coordination behind 9/11.  In reading this article the essential nature of oligarchy becomes apparent.  The conspiracy is far more vast and byzantine than can be organized by a secret committee of power-mad old men:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/9442970/Collateral-Damage-US-Covert-Operations-and-the-Terrorist-Attacks-on-September-11-200128062008

As for the ultimate reasons... Food is a simple one.  Humans are livestock.  Lucifer gains sustenance from trauma, hate, fear, crushed souls, etc.  He will never be satiated.  In fact, the more he feeds, the hungrier he gets!  I think another goal is to keep the psychic gravy train going by keeping us isolated on a hellish prison planet, disconnected from cosmic consciousness, with eternal Stockholm Syndrome.  The last parts of 1984 deal with this.  They want Earth to become a dark and retarded mockery of the Universe's mind, with lucifer as god.

I'm quite keen to hear your esoteric reasons.  Have you read "The Active Side of Infinity"?

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 09:20 | 3104412 Husk-Erzulie
Husk-Erzulie's picture

Great report.  TY for link.  For those who find Scribd difficult at times, another source (links direct to pdf).

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 12:34 | 3104558 geewhiz
geewhiz's picture

 They want Earth to become a dark and retarded mockery of the Universe's mind, with lucifer as god.

Some feel it's better to be the head of a rat than the tail of a lion.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:20 | 3103846 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well Jim I wouldn't be too hard on yourself. I can't speak for everybody here but I know this year certainly didn't turn out the way I expected it. The longer this drags out the harder it is to fight complacency.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:35 | 3103864 Salon
Salon's picture

Dude we got another ten years before the sheeple even start to notice

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 01:29 | 3104216 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

probably about the same time three generations live under a roof

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:26 | 3103850 Salon
Salon's picture

I am the only customer in Office Depot. Three staff. Spooky

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:52 | 3103907 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Who goes to Office Depot on Friday night?

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 01:31 | 3104219 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

looking for a woman with simple tastes

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 10:53 | 3104464 Salon
Salon's picture

Lol. A married guy.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:16 | 3103961 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dude - I have seen that sh*t too.  Very weird.  Same thing at Staples.  I remember 2008 and earlier there were always people in those stores even on a Friday night.  Ditto Sat and Sun. 

Staples used to stay open until 9 pm and now in most areas it is about 7 pm. I think ODP stays open til 8 pm.  People buy stuff online more but this is a barometer on the economy and it is really really BAD.   I used to go to those stores at least once a week or every other week.  Now it is once every 3 or 4 months!

Hope & Change.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:26 | 3104078 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Got my own informal "prosperity barometer" from another part of my life- building fast cars, hotrodding, racing and such.  I am a regular on several boards, being fairly accomplished on the hobby/amateur level.  When the economy is cranking, the threads pile up quick with lots of replies.  Not now.  They are dead as a doornail.  NOTHING going on at the "regular guy" level in the car hobby (plenty going on at the "money to burn on a $90,000 1000 HP street-driven Mustang" level, though- the rich guys).

Car projects are kinda like the opposite of guns, but related.  When rednecks like me feel happy they go work on their old Camaro.  But when they feel unsure or outright scared they park the hotrod and buy guns. 

They're paying a lot more attention to guns right now than they are to hotrods.  By a TON.

Fast cars require significant discretionary income (please, trust me on this- heroin is a less expensive habit!).  Guns don't, however.  Rednecks like me enjoy both, but if they're forced to choose based on money, they will choose guns.  Every day.  Twice on Sunday.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:31 | 3104096 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

interesting...carry on Reb.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 23:46 | 3104123 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Nah, nah, nah, I live NORTH of the Mason-Dixon line by about 1 mile.  I grew up with this kinda stuff and I never went away from it.  I like mechanical stuff- it doesn't talk back.  Works on simple principles of physics, nothing more.  Refreshing change from dealing with people every day. 

I get along with everyone- from CEOs to crazy-ass redneck SOBs and everywhere in between.  Never know who you can learn something from or who you're going to need to get along with to get by.

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 00:30 | 3104170 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

howbout; guns vs. NASCAR....revenue there has been down. Your thoughts?

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 01:30 | 3104218 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Just watch the college bowl games [especially if you like to watch REALLY BAD football]... The stadium are practically empty... When the BCS games arrive, the stadiums are likely to be more filled (&, of course, the national championship game will be sold out ~ with the networks being schooled to report to you about record high ticket prices)... But most games are being played in stadiums emptier than a fucking WNBA game [unless the bowl just happens to be basically on the campus of one of the teams]...

Hockey [NHL] is the same... You think it's a labor dispute?... Ha! That's just the excuse... They didn't want a full season [playing to empty houses]... 2nd time in the last 3 years the season has been cancelled... Same shit in the NBA last year... Played a HALF SEASON... It's cheaper to do that than play a full season in empty arenas...

All these leagues would be bankrupt if it weren't for TV contracts... & the TV contracts are loaded with commercials like this one [JP Morgan Chase]...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olmwOY_rec8

all brought to you by jew bankers telling you how lucky you are that they're shaking you down all the way down to the lint at the bottom of your pocket...

 

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 01:53 | 3104231 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture
saw it here at our Hawaii Bowl...two out of town teams resulted in barely 9,000 through the gates. Nationally televised embarassment as the camera shot low to hide the emptiness.     And yes, my beloved NHL, where the players/union haven't a clue...where as the OWners know we have entered DEpression.  Peak sports.  The rev won't be there to pay these inane contracts....the masses DON't see a thing!   Contraction will be imminent as the DEFlation bulldozer crushes the teams and their sponsors.
Sat, 12/29/2012 - 09:43 | 3104261 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That's the whole thing about hockey... Football, Baseball, & even the NBA can survive empty stadiums [to a degree] because of TV revenue... Hockey doesn't enjoy that [save for some cable sports network deals in some major markets]...

The NHL will become the New York Rangers & Boston Bruins playing each other over & over again...

I briefly watched 3 bowl games today:

- Advocare 100 Bowl (in Shreveport), was less than half full [that's being generous because by my eyes, 85% of the seats were empty] (& they only got that because Louisiana-Monroe was one of the teams & was playing in a bowl for the first time)... The TV commercials were the same Advocare 100 add over & over again (& that disgusting JP Morgan Chase ad I linked before)... There rest were ESPN promos...

- Virginia Tech/Rutgers was played in Orlando, FL... Hardly anybody there

- Texas Tech/Minnesota was about half full... but it was all TT fans who made the trip to San Antonio... Still ~ probably less than your average Texas High School football game...

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 08:29 | 3104385 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I can't say I'm all that into NASCAR, but I understand the concept.  Either way it's disposable income-related stuff and when the wallet is thin, something's gotta get crossed off the list.  NASCAR's an easy one since you can just watch it on TV for free.  (Just like subsituting cat food for steak, as discussed in previous threads on ZH!)

I should also comment that the noticable down-tick in activity in my hobby seemed to kick in about 6 months ago.  I forgot to mention that timeframe in my earlier posts.  It's not a years-long thing (the 2008 financial crisis  hit it no harder than I've seen lately).  It's RECENT.  By the time you hit the fall the boards are usually buzzing with guys talking about the new engine or suspension combo they're building over the winter to prepare for the race season starting in the spring.  Not this year, though.  Real light.

There's a lot of good observations here, like the college football observations, below.  Pro games, too.  I live in Eagles territory, so using them as a point of observation this year wouldn't be very meaningful (they are in the cellar and playing like they belong there).

This kinda stuff reminds me of the story about how Peter Lynch used to figure out what to invest in when he ran the Magellan Fund back in the 80s.  Took his kids to the mall and watched where they went and where they didn't. 

Was it Yogi Berra who said "You can see a lot just by looking around"?

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 16:52 | 3105166 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I like to read posts from thoughtful people reporting their observations, particularly when they're outside my own territory - differing perspectives help paint the overall picture more clearly, a welcome relief from the ditto-head posts.

appreciate your taking the time to add to the mix here.

Sat, 12/29/2012 - 14:24 | 3104794 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Everybody laughs at the rednecks till they need something built or fixed.

And it's "you can observe a lot, just by watching".

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:31 | 3103858 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

"The Market will go up.  The Market will go down"

~Captain Nasty c. 1993

Good night, whereever you are.

 

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:34 | 3103860 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

This site has the smarts the rest of us wish to obtain,  I am at awe with this article.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:37 | 3103872 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The more specific the prediction, the harder it is to take credit for getting it right.  But reminding everyone about your past predictions is commendable no matter how well or poorly you did.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:39 | 3103875 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yet another comparison between Obummer and Lincoln. These fuckers are gearing up for civil war;

http://m.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2012/1228/Fiscal-cliff-meeting-at-Wh...

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:45 | 3103885 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Make Georgia howl"- Abe Lincoln

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:42 | 3103883 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Posted at 19:49, DP "first responder" at 19:51.

What are the odds?...lol.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 21:46 | 3103888 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Jim has an anti-groupie.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:06 | 3103939 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I'm not so sure doc. Ya never know on the net.

On the one hand, it could be a Quinn/DP ID stoking hit counts to drive people over to his web page, that is, being one & the same. Another possibility is a partnership of sorts, to drive traffic. Or it could be as you say...the anti-groupie.

I just find it extraordinary that DP shows instantly (after laying dormant for days sometimes) on his, especially to be first, with always the same rant.

Fixated or plotted its still pretty damned weird...lol.

Disclaimer: I've had some run in's with DP, he seems real enough to me...I'm thinkin partnership...FWIW.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:12 | 3103951 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have to admit I hadn't thought of that angle. It does seem plausible though.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:13 | 3103955 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

I'd rather partner with a retarded shit eating monkey.

DP despises me because he is the only person ever banned from my website.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:29 | 3103986 Karlus
Karlus's picture

And the author's quick retort shows you are getting warmer, if not hot

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:30 | 3103987 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Banned for what reason?

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:42 | 3104012 Jim Quinn
Jim Quinn's picture

Spamming every post with his 9/11 copy and paste gibberish.

At least he's consistent.

Fri, 12/28/2012 - 22:52 | 3104024 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

You know, if you would just get with the 9/11 program..

Sheesh!

 

;-)

For the record, I'm a truther (I guess) and don't care whether you (or your site) caters to that.  There is more to the world.

 

 

 

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