Total Debt: $16,432,730,050,569.12; Debt To GDP: 103%

Tyler Durden's picture

We already knew that the US crossed the debt ceiling on New Year's day. It is, however, one thing to read a Geithner press release, it is another to see America's ridiculous debt it in action. So here it is, courtesy of TreasuryDirect, in all its debt ceiling glory: $16,432,730,050,569.12, with the debt subject to the ceiling at the limit of $16.394 trillion.

And with that we can close the books on the first quarter of Fiscal 2013, in which US public debt grew by $366 billion, some $122 billion per month on average.

This number will now remain fixed, and not change for the next two months, or until the debt ceiling is once again riased, most likely by another $2.4 trillion to $18.8 trillion, to much theatrical kicking and screaming, some time in February or March. In the meantime, any new debt issuance will have to be offset dollar for dollar with a reduction in various government retirement funds, Federal asset sales, SLGS issuance suspension, and the various other internal and external liability rearrangement, i.e., the Treasury's emergency response, the various components of which were listed here.

And for those curious what this means in debt/GDP terms, we apply the roughly 1.5% annualized GDP growth to Q4 GDP to get a debt/GDP number at December 31, 2012 of 103%, and rising very rapidly.

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Dr. Engali's picture

That steak is looking mighty tasty right about now.

fonzannoon's picture

pretty soon the offer will be a hamburger and I will probably take it.

GMadScientist's picture

Many boats rise on the heap of monetized gubbamint cheese.

Rogue Trooper's picture

You have to laugh at the 'precision' of all this ....  down to the last motherfuckin' 12 cents of, never to be repaid, Bennybucks!

Excel BitChez

Mad Mohel's picture

A lot of nuts on that Bernank.

 "Hey where the fuck you goin? You still owe .12 and I can't print that picayune shit, so I'll just take this gold tootha yours. Not that's it's money or anything, but we'll just call it even."

Bastiat009's picture

Went to Harvard, Princeton and MIT. I have been running banks and managing governments and thousands of people and I can assure you that this chart is completely irrelevant. And I also show up on TV every other day. So you can trust me.

fonzannoon's picture

but but but all those reasons you gave makes me not trust you.....

kliguy38's picture

no no no.....these institutions are now inhabited by legacy students of the "highest order" and the best professors money could buy...."off".....nothing like bastardizing once proud institutions to guarantee bloodlines.....welcome to the Twilight Zone.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Listen world, if we default you get shit.  Keep lending and you get interest payments.  That's been working here in merica fo the las hunderd years. 

Winston Churchill's picture

Didn't have to borrow the interest payment before.

FedRes HAVING to buy 80% of UST's,cause nobody else will at these rates.

Just how much longer will the rest of the world accept dollars for real things ?

Couple of years max,get your money out now,if not yourself as well.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Since when has dollars been a real thing?  They suddenly gonna notice now? /sarc

Arrow up BTW

SokPOTUS's picture

10 year at 1.84%; Pfft.  Call me when it's at 18.4% and I'll *start* to listen.  In the meantime; as long as the shopkeeper continues to take these Benjamins even though the ink smears, I'll keep buying sh*t with ''em...

chubbar's picture

interest rates go to 18.4% and the national debt interest payments go to 3 trillion dollars. Good luck with that.

sixbilliondollarman's picture

I remember back in 2004-5 some guys stated that if a country had a Debt/GDP ratio of over 70% they were considered a BANANA REPUBLIC...then again we had a mesure of M3 back around that time too.





nonclaim's picture

Then the new US rating will be BANANAAA+

espirit's picture

I up arrowed you because that is good, really good analysis.

Jena's picture

It was all so different when GWB was the big cheese, dontcha know?

akak's picture

Would that be head, or fromunda?

Likstane's picture

because of your base comments, we can not be BFF

edit: you forgot crack

akak's picture

I'm simply crushed.

espirit's picture

Let's see, 16 Trillion debt divided by 16 Million workers = Screwed Bitchez.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

mercenaryomics's picture



Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

No kidding, aren't exponents fun!? 

SokPOTUS's picture

These Currencies blow up so fast these days....

BlueStreet's picture

What's the problem, it's moving from the lower left to the upper right? Just be long of it, as 'Garts' would say.  

Sudden Debt's picture

true, if it where Apple Toys Inc. everybody would be chanting

BullsNBeers's picture

No need to sweat it! Just turn your monitor 45 degrees to the right.

See? Now its all good. 


FubarNation's picture

This is bullish.  Just look at the ES up 2.5% today.  Move along.

Sudden Debt's picture

why not....


Deacon Frost's picture

Yes SD, and I spend the depreciating $ on accumulating Au and Ag, as I have since 2002 after the dot-com crash.

adr's picture

I thought Moodys just said debt to GDP would peak at 80% in 2014. Somebody might want to get Moodys an updated chart.

lolmao500's picture

Moodys, in their infinte wisdom, only counts the debt held by the public.

Sudden Debt's picture

Texas instruments... still made in America....

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Americans don't need scientific calculators, just an iPad full of TMZ apps will do.

lolmao500's picture

Too bad they didn't pass the Sandy relief bill... Timmy's games wouldn't have lasted a week... it would have been hilarious.

SokPOTUS's picture

Yep.  That's why they should have passed it; and added some tasty 'R' pork onto it too.  Boehner has to go; he's the patsy at the table; and he's outta chips.

lolmao500's picture

Oh wait.

Republican Rep. Peter King of New York said Wednesday that House Speaker John Boehner has promised a vote Friday on $9 billion in disaster aid for Superstorm Sandy and then another vote on $51 billion in aid on January 15.

Timmy's shorts are gonna be brown soon.

Ignatius J Reilly's picture

I postulate this very seriously.  I really want to hear your theories.


It is hypothesized that if a person were to cross the event horizon of a black hole, he would feel nothing, but doom is certain.  Is that where we are?


Use your imagination.  How can this debt be solved?  When do we  begin to feel the pull of the black hole's gravity? 20 Trillion?  when?

Jethro's picture

I reckon that this analogy could be applied to our current fiscal situation.  The normal laws of physics get skewed as you get closer to the singularity, but the approach is exponential right?  So, you might think everything is OK, but just a tad strange right up to the point where you get ripped apart atom by atom. 

LawsofPhysics's picture

No imagination required.  We have seen other large countries or unions collapse and break up before.  Ours will be very similar.

Ignatius J Reilly's picture

My appologies.  I'm looking for the catalyst, the switch, whatever, that actually causes the default.

Jethro's picture

I don't think you'd notice crossing an actual event horizon either because your frame of reference.  You'd just all of a sudden be there.

pods's picture

The debt cannot be solved.  It is not supposed to be solved.

It is the solution. 

Now the problem of debt currency+interest, that is the problem.

The solution= More Debt.

If you put those glasses on, things become perfectly clear.


Ignatius J Reilly's picture

ad infinitum ... one way trip to Zimbabwe?


There has to be a resolution, doesnt there have to be a default?

seek's picture

There is no solution with the current amount of debt. To get to the point where we simply aren't increasing debt (ie zero deficit + current outstanding debt) would take approximately a 34% cut in federal spending, and that's not counting any off-budget items, or increases in mandated spending (e.g. SS).

Just the cut alone would result in a depression-level decline in GDP. So the "solution" would be a 34% cut in spending, an instant depression, and a freeze on any additional SS spending, meaning current SS benefits would be divided across a growing pool of beneficiaries, and the checks would get progressively smaller as boomers rotated in. If we did all that, we could stay in the place we're are, but not crawl out of the hole.

Anything less than a zero deficit simply means the debt increases. Interest rates have to be close to zero for this to work at all. At 15% interest rates (those seen during the high inflation episode of late 70s/early 80s when Volker stepped in) our current debt would consume 100% of current federal tax revenue, with nothing left over for any spending whatsoever.

Any increase in interest rates accelerates the debt accumulation and point where it reaches the same as income. At 7% interest, the debt would cost $1T a year to service. Remember ll federal tax revenues are $2.5T, GDP is 15T, there's just not a lot of runway left here.

Ergo, until after the reset, we will never, ever again see interest rates far from zero. Which means when inflation happens, there will be no stopping it. And for the government to maintain purchasing power, it has to print even more (remember, it's the printing that causing the dilution of the dollar that leads to lost purchasing power.) We're in a positive feedback loop now, and the only escape are choices that today are considered too horrific to make -- and thus they won't be made.

You can see the posturing to create some sort of hybrid fascist/socialist state out of the wreckage, but I don't think TPTB that are planning this are comprending the size of the reset, and the fact that with a collapse economy, there won't be enough rewards to fascists or socialists to keep things going.

My bets are it falls apart 2015-2018. You can do all sorts of fun things with numerical modeling and assumptions, growth rates, etc. At current growth rates, our debt to GDP will be 200% by 2019, 400% by 2027. In the meantime the dollar is devaluing due to the printing -- how far can it be devalued before something breaks?

That's just the US. Don't forget Japan and Europe have their own issues -- any of which can demand a financial response from the US that triggers the final implosion.

CompassionateFascist's picture

These "economic" analyses can take one only so far. The Jew-Stalinist oligarchs and their goy stooges know economic collapse is coming fairly soon, after which they'll no longer be able to buy consent with debt issuance. That's why the gun grab: hard to gulag people who can shoot back. I expect the Grab w/in 60 days of Obama's inaug, shortly followed by 1,2,3...many Ruby Ridges/Wacos. Then flat out, hot Civil War: Right vs Left, Race vs. Race, Rural vs. Urban, States vs. Center. We don't have 3 years to prepare...3 months if we're lucky. Invest in lead. If you can find any.  

dexter_morgan's picture

Don't sweat it, we're all Keynnsian now.

FubarNation's picture

I think the Vapors said it best.