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Total Debt: $16,432,730,050,569.12; Debt To GDP: 103%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We already knew that the US crossed the debt ceiling on New Year's day. It is, however, one thing to read a Geithner press release, it is another to see America's ridiculous debt it in action. So here it is, courtesy of TreasuryDirect, in all its debt ceiling glory: $16,432,730,050,569.12, with the debt subject to the ceiling at the limit of $16.394 trillion.

And with that we can close the books on the first quarter of Fiscal 2013, in which US public debt grew by $366 billion, some $122 billion per month on average.

This number will now remain fixed, and not change for the next two months, or until the debt ceiling is once again riased, most likely by another $2.4 trillion to $18.8 trillion, to much theatrical kicking and screaming, some time in February or March. In the meantime, any new debt issuance will have to be offset dollar for dollar with a reduction in various government retirement funds, Federal asset sales, SLGS issuance suspension, and the various other internal and external liability rearrangement, i.e., the Treasury's emergency response, the various components of which were listed here.

And for those curious what this means in debt/GDP terms, we apply the roughly 1.5% annualized GDP growth to Q4 GDP to get a debt/GDP number at December 31, 2012 of 103%, and rising very rapidly.

 


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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Boner to resign? if he does the debt limit now becomes a real deal

if so markets tank tomorrow

the gift that keeps on giving

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

I bet Obama raises the ceiling by decree and hands out 30B each to the Sandy states.

 

Obama rolls like that..  He don't need no congress..

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Does the 103 % number include the Fannie/Freddie liabilities ?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

The gvt regrets to inform you that you will not get your refund on time this year, because the gvt has no money, execpt yours.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

In my wildest dreams I could not have accomplished such an amazing feat the US Government has accomplished for me. Keep that national debt growing parabolicly for me Congress and Mr President. I want to see the $20 trillion mark hit as soon as possible.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

Dream higher my son.  100T before I die.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

After he gets done talkin to the chocolate carbonator, he'll be green with envy and stoned with wisdom.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:36 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

don't worry boys and girls.....

 

USA is too big to fail

 

 

who wants war with America????

 

Just enjoy the empire

 

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 04:07 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

@whatsinaname: No. Actual Fed Govt debt is >$22,000,000,000,000. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

It does not matter, because this time is different. US have the technology to sustain high debt levels easily.  The greatest country on earth invented the printing press, the tablet computer and the Facebook.  This will change the world and the US will lead again.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

I know you're high on Bunga Bunga so I'll let you off

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment JayKitsap
JayKitsap's picture

"I bet Obama raises the ceiling by decree and hands out 30B each to the Sandy states.

 Obama rolls like that..  He don't need no congress.."

 

Yes the Sandy damage to Ill and Calf was just incredible, they will get included with it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:14 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

funny how much debt got pushed into November and Dec after the election

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment bjfish
bjfish's picture

POLITICAL SCIENCE FOR DUMMIES:

Tax-cuts under Bush = Bad

Tax-cuts under Obama = good

Gov't spending under Bush = Bad

Gov't spending under Obama = Good

$200 B deficits under Bush = Catstrophe (just ask Krugman)

$1.2 Trillion deficits under Obama = would be better if he spent even more (just ask Krugman)

foreign policy moves under Bush (any) = bad

foreign policy moves under Obama (any) = perfect execution of policy (just ask Time mag.)

If you think this is just my opinion, then you are wrong 'cuz there are legions of media types and liberal arts professors who verify and confirm this.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Jeb 2016!

LOL

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Michael Pento on cnbc right now saying he went long stocks. this guy was all cash for as long as i could remember. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It's going to go up, but I wouldn't touch that paper with Bob Dole's dick.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

Poly Sci 101 cont -
Intergovernmental Holdings - Social Security funds stolen by the Kleptocrats and the corporate welfare pigs - the oligarchs.
Just look at the fiscal cliff deal - 1.5 bil to goldman sachs - 150 mil to hollywood(thanksto dark thirty) and 45 mil for nascar etc - another 1.5 in legalized off shore accounting tricks -

Coupled with taxing any mortgage writedown as 100% income - so write down 100,000 and owe the fed and state gov 35,000 - yea that'll work!
Also tax breaks to help people take care of their elderly parents and keep them in their homesinstead of institutionalizing them are also gone.

We the People pay the Bills and the corporations get the Deals.

Bread and Circuses - or should I say SNAP and Sandy Hook?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

Tribe worship by the too dumb to figure it out crowd.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If you really believe that there are two different political parties, then you have had your head up your ass for about 40+ years.  Wake the fuck up already.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment oddball
oddball's picture

+1

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

See Glenn Greenwald's "repulsive progressive hypocrisy"

 

for some reason not finding a full version of that article right now - too lazy to hunt.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment GernB
GernB's picture

Yes, this is all perfectly understandable and rational when you understand one thing. The reason Bush did all those things was to benefit the rich and the corrupt military industrial complex. The reason Obama did the exact same things was to benefit the poor, restore justice to our tax system and bring balance to the force.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I hate to break it to you, but they both do the same fucking things, for the same fucking reasons, because they have the same fucking owners.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 08:00 | Link to Comment S.N.A.F.U.
S.N.A.F.U.'s picture

Apparently GernB's humor, clearly tagged as such with "bring balance to the force", went unnoticed by a few people.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Good for you - sticking with the ol' red fish blue fish storyline.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:01 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Pro-TARP shill Cantor to replace Boehner most likely. Nothing will change.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Cantor doesnt cry as far as I know, so there is that.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 04:13 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

No, but he is a frequent visitor to the Wailing Wall. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment The Joker
The Joker's picture

Puppet Replacement Theory:  C = S2 + D2

C = Change

S2 = Same Shit

D2 = Different Day

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

And in many circles this is considered fiscal restraint.

<God help us, but just wait until they're really trying to cut back.>

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:47 | Link to Comment USS Bernanke
USS Bernanke's picture

Full speed ahead captain.

Set the presses to top speed and prepare for overdrive.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

US debt clock puts the debt to GDP at 105.68%.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Main point of course being that regardless of calculation, we're definitely, for sure, insolvent.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Listen up buster. I'll tell you when we're insolvent. And we are not insolvent." - Helicopter Ben

<I still have an entire warehouse full of one's and zero's in reserve.>

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

But we "owe it to ourselves" right?

FUBAR NATION

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:11 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I can't seem to find my FFB debit card anywhere. Hmmm.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:57 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke: "We will re-review the need for further market juicing at QE 100, until then party on!"

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Collapse. Just freaking collapse before they can do any more damage.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

dont tell it to the VXX  ha ha or VVXY

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

VXX about to take out all time low of $27.94...so tempting but.must.not.buy.  Widow maker trade...US gov will punish any all who have the temerity to "short Merica" by running VXX to $.01.

Bottom line is - either join the Ponzi or be destroyed

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment mercenaryomics
mercenaryomics's picture

FUCK YOU BERNANKE 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Looks like we're goin ta Di'ney Lan' Bitchez...........

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

The Fiscal Cliff Ride -- Mind The Gap!

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:46 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Debt to the penny? How much did Rumsfeld say was missing from Pentagon budget on 9/10? Ever read the qualifications to any government financial statements?

Doomed, we are...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:47 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

iDefault.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:47 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Build some more bombs and military hardware quick!  Another unfunded war will fix it (provided that we actually kill a substantial part of the world's population this time)!!  < sarc off >

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Jethro
Jethro's picture

Does one on our own soil count?  Because, the longer this charade persists, the more the philosophical divide extends and we shall go to war against our countrymen at some point.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

We will anyway.  Just like the soviets did during and after their collapse.  Ours will be no different.  The good news is that when the creditors come looking for debt repayment, the country that owed them all that money won't exist.  Just like the collapse and break-up, of the Soviet Union, our collapse will follow a similar path.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Creative destruction is a beautiful thing.  Sometimes, in order to save the country, it has to be burned to the ground.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 20:02 | Link to Comment OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

There's a lot of dead wood in this forest that needs to be burned out to make way for new growth. Well, counterfeit wood anyway.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

In any case, it will be a lot cheaper to fight locally, once the foreign credit dries up.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:48 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

dow up 270. Nas up 83pts. Gold up 9 bucks. 9 bucks. it's like they feel bad for it. nice silver knockdown off the highs too.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That steak is looking mighty tasty right about now.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

pretty soon the offer will be a hamburger and I will probably take it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Many boats rise on the heap of monetized gubbamint cheese.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

You have to laugh at the 'precision' of all this ....  down to the last motherfuckin' 12 cents of, never to be repaid, Bennybucks!

Excel BitChez

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

A lot of nuts on that Bernank.

 "Hey where the fuck you goin? You still owe .12 and I can't print that picayune shit, so I'll just take this gold tootha yours. Not that's it's money or anything, but we'll just call it even."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Went to Harvard, Princeton and MIT. I have been running banks and managing governments and thousands of people and I can assure you that this chart is completely irrelevant. And I also show up on TV every other day. So you can trust me.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

but but but all those reasons you gave makes me not trust you.....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

no no no.....these institutions are now inhabited by legacy students of the "highest order" and the best professors money could buy...."off".....nothing like bastardizing once proud institutions to guarantee bloodlines.....welcome to the Twilight Zone.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Listen world, if we default you get shit.  Keep lending and you get interest payments.  That's been working here in merica fo the las hunderd years. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Didn't have to borrow the interest payment before.

FedRes HAVING to buy 80% of UST's,cause nobody else will at these rates.

Just how much longer will the rest of the world accept dollars for real things ?

Couple of years max,get your money out now,if not yourself as well.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Since when has dollars been a real thing?  They suddenly gonna notice now? /sarc

Arrow up BTW

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

10 year at 1.84%; Pfft.  Call me when it's at 18.4% and I'll *start* to listen.  In the meantime; as long as the shopkeeper continues to take these Benjamins even though the ink smears, I'll keep buying sh*t with ''em...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:05 | Link to Comment chubbar
chubbar's picture

interest rates go to 18.4% and the national debt interest payments go to 3 trillion dollars. Good luck with that.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:50 | Link to Comment sixbilliondollarman
sixbilliondollarman's picture

I remember back in 2004-5 some guys stated that if a country had a Debt/GDP ratio of over 70% they were considered a BANANA REPUBLIC...then again we had a mesure of M3 back around that time too.

 

SCAM MARKETS WHERE YOU CAN PLAY WITH THE VOLITILITY ALGO DEVIL

AS HE DRINKS YOU CAPITAL SLOWLY AS YOUR LIFE [ACCOUNT]

FADES INTO NOTHING BUT TAXATION WHILE IN PRISON YOU WATCH NICK LIESMAN ON CNBC UNTIL YOUR BRAIN FALLS OUT

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHuqLM4f7Gk

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:00 | Link to Comment nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Then the new US rating will be BANANAAA+

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

I up arrowed you because that is good, really good analysis.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Jena
Jena's picture

It was all so different when GWB was the big cheese, dontcha know?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:12 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Would that be head, or fromunda?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 02:38 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

because of your base comments, we can not be BFF

edit: you forgot crack

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I'm simply crushed.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Let's see, 16 Trillion debt divided by 16 Million workers = Screwed Bitchez.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:05 | Link to Comment mercenaryomics
mercenaryomics's picture

 

 

Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

No kidding, aren't exponents fun!? 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:24 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

These Currencies blow up so fast these days....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment knicks3005
knicks3005's picture

It was yesterday....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:53 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

What's the problem, it's moving from the lower left to the upper right? Just be long of it, as 'Garts' would say.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

true, if it where Apple Toys Inc. everybody would be chanting

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment BullsNBeers
BullsNBeers's picture

No need to sweat it! Just turn your monitor 45 degrees to the right.

See? Now its all good. 

FIFY

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:56 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

This is bullish.  Just look at the ES up 2.5% today.  Move along.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

why not....

SPEND IT WHILE IT'S STILL WORTH SOMETHING!!!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Yes SD, and I spend the depreciating $ on accumulating Au and Ag, as I have since 2002 after the dot-com crash.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I thought Moodys just said debt to GDP would peak at 80% in 2014. Somebody might want to get Moodys an updated chart.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Moodys, in their infinte wisdom, only counts the debt held by the public.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Texas instruments... still made in America....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Americans don't need scientific calculators, just an iPad full of TMZ apps will do.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Too bad they didn't pass the Sandy relief bill... Timmy's games wouldn't have lasted a week... it would have been hilarious.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Yep.  That's why they should have passed it; and added some tasty 'R' pork onto it too.  Boehner has to go; he's the patsy at the table; and he's outta chips.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Oh wait.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/02/breaking-house-to-vote-on-sandy-aid-king-says/

Republican Rep. Peter King of New York said Wednesday that House Speaker John Boehner has promised a vote Friday on $9 billion in disaster aid for Superstorm Sandy and then another vote on $51 billion in aid on January 15.

Timmy's shorts are gonna be brown soon.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

I postulate this very seriously.  I really want to hear your theories.

 

It is hypothesized that if a person were to cross the event horizon of a black hole, he would feel nothing, but doom is certain.  Is that where we are?

 

Use your imagination.  How can this debt be solved?  When do we  begin to feel the pull of the black hole's gravity? 20 Trillion?  when?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

When Bondzilla shows up.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Jethro
Jethro's picture

I reckon that this analogy could be applied to our current fiscal situation.  The normal laws of physics get skewed as you get closer to the singularity, but the approach is exponential right?  So, you might think everything is OK, but just a tad strange right up to the point where you get ripped apart atom by atom. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

No imagination required.  We have seen other large countries or unions collapse and break up before.  Ours will be very similar.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

My appologies.  I'm looking for the catalyst, the switch, whatever, that actually causes the default.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Jethro
Jethro's picture

I don't think you'd notice crossing an actual event horizon either because your frame of reference.  You'd just all of a sudden be there.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

The debt cannot be solved.  It is not supposed to be solved.

It is the solution. 

Now the problem of debt currency+interest, that is the problem.

The solution= More Debt.

If you put those glasses on, things become perfectly clear.

pods

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

ad infinitum ... one way trip to Zimbabwe?

 

There has to be a resolution, doesnt there have to be a default?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

There is no solution with the current amount of debt. To get to the point where we simply aren't increasing debt (ie zero deficit + current outstanding debt) would take approximately a 34% cut in federal spending, and that's not counting any off-budget items, or increases in mandated spending (e.g. SS).

Just the cut alone would result in a depression-level decline in GDP. So the "solution" would be a 34% cut in spending, an instant depression, and a freeze on any additional SS spending, meaning current SS benefits would be divided across a growing pool of beneficiaries, and the checks would get progressively smaller as boomers rotated in. If we did all that, we could stay in the place we're are, but not crawl out of the hole.

Anything less than a zero deficit simply means the debt increases. Interest rates have to be close to zero for this to work at all. At 15% interest rates (those seen during the high inflation episode of late 70s/early 80s when Volker stepped in) our current debt would consume 100% of current federal tax revenue, with nothing left over for any spending whatsoever.

Any increase in interest rates accelerates the debt accumulation and point where it reaches the same as income. At 7% interest, the debt would cost $1T a year to service. Remember ll federal tax revenues are $2.5T, GDP is 15T, there's just not a lot of runway left here.

Ergo, until after the reset, we will never, ever again see interest rates far from zero. Which means when inflation happens, there will be no stopping it. And for the government to maintain purchasing power, it has to print even more (remember, it's the printing that causing the dilution of the dollar that leads to lost purchasing power.) We're in a positive feedback loop now, and the only escape are choices that today are considered too horrific to make -- and thus they won't be made.

You can see the posturing to create some sort of hybrid fascist/socialist state out of the wreckage, but I don't think TPTB that are planning this are comprending the size of the reset, and the fact that with a collapse economy, there won't be enough rewards to fascists or socialists to keep things going.

My bets are it falls apart 2015-2018. You can do all sorts of fun things with numerical modeling and assumptions, growth rates, etc. At current growth rates, our debt to GDP will be 200% by 2019, 400% by 2027. In the meantime the dollar is devaluing due to the printing -- how far can it be devalued before something breaks?

That's just the US. Don't forget Japan and Europe have their own issues -- any of which can demand a financial response from the US that triggers the final implosion.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 04:34 | Link to Comment CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

These "economic" analyses can take one only so far. The Jew-Stalinist oligarchs and their goy stooges know economic collapse is coming fairly soon, after which they'll no longer be able to buy consent with debt issuance. That's why the gun grab: hard to gulag people who can shoot back. I expect the Grab w/in 60 days of Obama's inaug, shortly followed by 1,2,3...many Ruby Ridges/Wacos. Then flat out, hot Civil War: Right vs Left, Race vs. Race, Rural vs. Urban, States vs. Center. We don't have 3 years to prepare...3 months if we're lucky. Invest in lead. If you can find any.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Don't sweat it, we're all Keynnsian now.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I think the Vapors said it best.

 

http://youtu.be/gEmJ-VWPDM4

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

An awesome tune by the Vapors indeed.  Perhaps more fitting prose from Iron Maiden, "The Wickerman",  

Irony BRitChez  - some serious Guitar :)

"You watch the world exploding every single night
Dancing in the sun a newborn in the light
Brothers and their fathers joining hands and make a chain
The shadow of the Wicker Man is rising up again

Your time will come, your time will come
Your time will come, your time will come"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLIu3DvUbiI

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment wcvarones
wcvarones's picture

>> we apply the roughly 1.5% annualized GDP growth to Q4 GDP

That's <i>real</i> GDP.  Don't forget Zimbabwe Ben's contribution of ~2% devaluation.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:09 | Link to Comment docmac324
docmac324's picture

Bankrupt baby.

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The U.S. has now gained another #1 distinction... Global Banana Republic.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment BullsNBeers
BullsNBeers's picture

I hope the clothing will be cheaper than the normal Banana Republic.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:13 | Link to Comment luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

Lest, anyone forget, MY MAIN MAN, is keeping score here!!

 

I dare Anyone, to attempt to fudge the number's

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I hate it when the Rating Agencys and the Market try to get the Congress and Senate to do their bidding thru the threat of Downgrades or lowered Stock Prices.

Trying to influence proper Fiscal Policy based on their view of the US Debt is outrageous.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Investor Wizard
Investor Wizard's picture

Ben and Timmy have plans to transfer that debt to 16.4 billion Visa 0% introductory offer credit cards. Problem solved for 180 days!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

The 29.9% Penalty Rate next June's a bitch though...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

I got a down arrow for that?  WTF?  Not funny (enough?) I guess.  Next time, I'll add more snark.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

They would just need bigger limos to carry all these credit cards.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Timmyyyyyyy will have a problem soon enough :

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/02/breaking-house-to-vote-o...

Republican Rep. Peter King of New York said Wednesday that House Speaker John Boehner has promised a vote Friday on $9 billion in disaster aid for Superstorm Sandy and then another vote on $51 billion in aid on January 15.

How much money can Timmy steal from the government pension funds? More than $60 billion? He better hope so or else... things could get hilarious real fast.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

About $300B from the G-Fund; then there's a smaller .gov worker fund of about $50B.  We are on a run rate of $122B of deficit per month for the first three months of this FY; Oct-Dec; so on or about April 1 through 10 before TSHTF.  There's also a State and Local Construction Bond guarantee program they can suspend; but that would bring road construction projects in bad credit states like CA and IL to a screeching halt just in time for Spring; thousands of 'shovel ready' jobs would be un-saved or dis-created.  States with 'good' credit ratings could probably finance their own, w/o FedGov guarantees.  Suspending that program in the Spring could probably buy another week or two. 

Sandy Relief would bump time forward though a couple of weeks to mid-to-end of March, instead.

It's gonna be epic.

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment zapdude
zapdude's picture

Reinhart & Rogoff will be proven right once again. 

Once a nation breaches the ~80% debt to GDP ratio, they have passed the point of no return towards default. 

The US will default, only after the confetti money printing has made US debt totally worthless.

FORWARD, soviet!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I want it to happen during Obama's term so all those statists slaves Obamabots cry their eyes out and harakiri when they realized they have been fools all this time... it'll be hilarious.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment zapdude
zapdude's picture

I'm afraid when that happens, we'll all be too busy trying to stay alive in some "Walking Dead" scenario where we're ducking bullets and practicing ditch medicine because civilization has collapsed. 

No time for schadenfreude.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

There's always room for Jello ... and brains!

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:32 | Link to Comment supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

Zapdude: "Reinhart & Rogoff will be proven right once again. 

Once a nation breaches the ~80% debt to GDP ratio, they have passed the point of no return towards default. 

The US will default, only after the confetti money printing has made US debt totally worthless.

FORWARD, soviet!"

 

Little o'l Irelands is 1093% apparantely. Do we have a prayer?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment cognus
cognus's picture

It works great for the Japanese - I'm sure it will work here.  as long as those yields are this low, take the Money Benny!  take it 'til the rate hits 6

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

So by dropping the penny from production, does the total go down to .10, or up to .15?

This is very important.

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Why do I keep getting CougarLife.com ads?  Is ZeroHedge trying to get me to stop worrying about US debt?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Looks like a chart of AAPL for 10/1/11 - 09/30/12

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Have you fellas seen Krugman's latest?

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/debt-in-a-time-of-zero/

 

I think the stress is getting to him.

 

Attack, gentlemen - attack!

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:22 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Always thought Krugman would feel quite proud standing in front of the military reviewing stand in a socialist nation. The faster he destroys the US and it's constitution the sooner he gets to bask in the light of the new world order.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment seek
seek's picture

US GDP: $15T

$122B/Month, annualized: $1.5T ($1.46 rounded up for simplicity)

So we're now adding 10% of the GDP to debt every year, or another way to look at it, supporting GDP by printing to the tune of 10% per year.

No way out of this one. And were that spending to go away -- instant depression.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Doctor Faustus
Doctor Faustus's picture

“Fools that will laugh on earth, must weep in hell.”

 

Christopher Marlowe, Doctor Faustus

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

There was a time when we were running a surplus.  Anybody remember that?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Yup, that was smoke and mirrors as well.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Titus Flavius C...
Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus's picture

Clinton?

 

No - that was horseshit... just an accounting trick using your social security taxes.

 

{sorry}

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

US debt is irrelevant. PODS had a very good post, debt is the solution when you have a debt based currency. The problem is confidence, if that collapses so does the system. That is why they are manipulating gold so much. However, they soon must start manipulating corn, oil, soybeans, milk, cement, water, and all those other real things that can`t be printed up ... unless you have a 3d printer.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Silver<del><del><del><del><del><del>Corn.

Done.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:07 | Link to Comment Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

More debt means more money, since money is a receipt of debt. Too bad the banks are the only ones who get all the money from Bernanke. They will subsidize food when prices get too high; just like they are currently doing with milk.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:23 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Long 3D printers........

 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment Campagnolo
Campagnolo's picture

...and counting bitches, yes counting more to the debt every day....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

OK, Two QUESTIONS to end ALL QUESTIONS.

Who lent all this money, and where did they get it to give it in the first place?

;) The debt is meaningless.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

The Fed authorizes the debt. The Fed loves the debt to go up and up because when the day comes that America can't pay on the debt, FDR gave the Fed the power to take every inch of land in America; whether it be public or private.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

It's nothing but the Feds interpretation of the fiscal cliff, inflated since 1913. We should all be wishing him happy birthday according to his thinking. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

It's all monopoly money any way *shrug*

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment TerminalDebt
TerminalDebt's picture

Inflation so bad you can't get a decent hooker for 5 bucks anymore

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:12 | Link to Comment AgAu_man
AgAu_man's picture

$16T+? I didn't build that! Not one single FRN of it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

......................Serfs Up...........................

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

And the Rothschilds smile   :0)

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Rob Paulson
Rob Paulson's picture

Here's an interesting video I'm watching:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&feature=youtu.be

Kyle Bass on what happens when debt reaches 20x tax revenue.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 21:40 | Link to Comment newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

This new number has no meaningfull consequences. It would be 20 trillion as it does not matter to the "person on the street." UNTILL THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES, IT'S JUST NUMBER ONLY.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 06:25 | Link to Comment AmeliaV
AmeliaV's picture

The debt of the Federal government is just huge, probably the US is at first place among all the countries with developed economy. And this debt grows with every minutes because no one tries to eliminate it and make it lower. How can the economy be healthy if borrowing money and using payday loans in hour has become a lifestyle for the US? Everybody has debts today. But I think that the debt of the Federal Government doesn’t let the economy to develop and keep us at the same place, we do not go any further. Until we have this problem it will be hard to see any economic progress. 

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