Total Debt: $16,432,730,050,569.12; Debt To GDP: 103%

Tyler Durden's picture


We already knew that the US crossed the debt ceiling on New Year's day. It is, however, one thing to read a Geithner press release, it is another to see America's ridiculous debt it in action. So here it is, courtesy of TreasuryDirect, in all its debt ceiling glory: $16,432,730,050,569.12, with the debt subject to the ceiling at the limit of $16.394 trillion.

And with that we can close the books on the first quarter of Fiscal 2013, in which US public debt grew by $366 billion, some $122 billion per month on average.

This number will now remain fixed, and not change for the next two months, or until the debt ceiling is once again riased, most likely by another $2.4 trillion to $18.8 trillion, to much theatrical kicking and screaming, some time in February or March. In the meantime, any new debt issuance will have to be offset dollar for dollar with a reduction in various government retirement funds, Federal asset sales, SLGS issuance suspension, and the various other internal and external liability rearrangement, i.e., the Treasury's emergency response, the various components of which were listed here.

And for those curious what this means in debt/GDP terms, we apply the roughly 1.5% annualized GDP growth to Q4 GDP to get a debt/GDP number at December 31, 2012 of 103%, and rising very rapidly.

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Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | 3116107 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That steak is looking mighty tasty right about now.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:06 | 3116157 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

pretty soon the offer will be a hamburger and I will probably take it.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:12 | 3116178 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Many boats rise on the heap of monetized gubbamint cheese.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | 3116064 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

You have to laugh at the 'precision' of all this ....  down to the last motherfuckin' 12 cents of, never to be repaid, Bennybucks!

Excel BitChez

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:00 | 3116121 Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

A lot of nuts on that Bernank.

 "Hey where the fuck you goin? You still owe .12 and I can't print that picayune shit, so I'll just take this gold tootha yours. Not that's it's money or anything, but we'll just call it even."

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | 3116069 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Went to Harvard, Princeton and MIT. I have been running banks and managing governments and thousands of people and I can assure you that this chart is completely irrelevant. And I also show up on TV every other day. So you can trust me.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | 3116079 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

but but but all those reasons you gave makes me not trust you.....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | 3116106 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

no no no.....these institutions are now inhabited by legacy students of the "highest order" and the best professors money could buy...."off".....nothing like bastardizing once proud institutions to guarantee bloodlines.....welcome to the Twilight Zone.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:49 | 3116071 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Listen world, if we default you get shit.  Keep lending and you get interest payments.  That's been working here in merica fo the las hunderd years. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:01 | 3116124 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Didn't have to borrow the interest payment before.

FedRes HAVING to buy 80% of UST's,cause nobody else will at these rates.

Just how much longer will the rest of the world accept dollars for real things ?

Couple of years max,get your money out now,if not yourself as well.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:07 | 3116151 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Since when has dollars been a real thing?  They suddenly gonna notice now? /sarc

Arrow up BTW

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:21 | 3116220 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

10 year at 1.84%; Pfft.  Call me when it's at 18.4% and I'll *start* to listen.  In the meantime; as long as the shopkeeper continues to take these Benjamins even though the ink smears, I'll keep buying sh*t with ''em...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:05 | 3116690 chubbar
chubbar's picture

interest rates go to 18.4% and the national debt interest payments go to 3 trillion dollars. Good luck with that.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:50 | 3116072 sixbilliondollarman
sixbilliondollarman's picture

I remember back in 2004-5 some guys stated that if a country had a Debt/GDP ratio of over 70% they were considered a BANANA REPUBLIC...then again we had a mesure of M3 back around that time too.





Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:00 | 3116123 nonclaim
nonclaim's picture

Then the new US rating will be BANANAAA+

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:14 | 3116184 espirit
espirit's picture

I up arrowed you because that is good, really good analysis.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:08 | 3116165 Jena
Jena's picture

It was all so different when GWB was the big cheese, dontcha know?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 19:12 | 3116718 akak
akak's picture

Would that be head, or fromunda?

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 02:38 | 3117864 Likstane
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because of your base comments, we can not be BFF

edit: you forgot crack

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 14:55 | 3119483 akak
akak's picture

I'm simply crushed.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | 3116081 espirit
espirit's picture

Let's see, 16 Trillion debt divided by 16 Million workers = Screwed Bitchez.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:52 | 3116082 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:05 | 3116149 mercenaryomics
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Ahhhh, it seems like it was just yesterday we hit that 100% debt/GDP mark...

No kidding, aren't exponents fun!? 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:24 | 3116231 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

These Currencies blow up so fast these days....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:16 | 3116503 knicks3005
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It was yesterday....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:53 | 3116087 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

What's the problem, it's moving from the lower left to the upper right? Just be long of it, as 'Garts' would say.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | 3116114 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

true, if it where Apple Toys Inc. everybody would be chanting

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:27 | 3116252 BullsNBeers
BullsNBeers's picture

No need to sweat it! Just turn your monitor 45 degrees to the right.

See? Now its all good. 


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:56 | 3116097 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

This is bullish.  Just look at the ES up 2.5% today.  Move along.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | 3116104 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

why not....


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:57 | 3116405 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Yes SD, and I spend the depreciating $ on accumulating Au and Ag, as I have since 2002 after the dot-com crash.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | 3116105 adr
adr's picture

I thought Moodys just said debt to GDP would peak at 80% in 2014. Somebody might want to get Moodys an updated chart.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | 3116110 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Moodys, in their infinte wisdom, only counts the debt held by the public.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | 3116118 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Texas instruments... still made in America....

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:06 | 3116156 Dr. Richard Head
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Americans don't need scientific calculators, just an iPad full of TMZ apps will do.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:58 | 3116108 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Too bad they didn't pass the Sandy relief bill... Timmy's games wouldn't have lasted a week... it would have been hilarious.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:25 | 3116244 SokPOTUS
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Yep.  That's why they should have passed it; and added some tasty 'R' pork onto it too.  Boehner has to go; he's the patsy at the table; and he's outta chips.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:35 | 3116290 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Oh wait.

Republican Rep. Peter King of New York said Wednesday that House Speaker John Boehner has promised a vote Friday on $9 billion in disaster aid for Superstorm Sandy and then another vote on $51 billion in aid on January 15.

Timmy's shorts are gonna be brown soon.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | 3116115 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

I postulate this very seriously.  I really want to hear your theories.


It is hypothesized that if a person were to cross the event horizon of a black hole, he would feel nothing, but doom is certain.  Is that where we are?


Use your imagination.  How can this debt be solved?  When do we  begin to feel the pull of the black hole's gravity? 20 Trillion?  when?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:02 | 3116137 lolmao500
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When Bondzilla shows up.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:08 | 3116162 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I reckon that this analogy could be applied to our current fiscal situation.  The normal laws of physics get skewed as you get closer to the singularity, but the approach is exponential right?  So, you might think everything is OK, but just a tad strange right up to the point where you get ripped apart atom by atom. 

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:25 | 3116241 LawsofPhysics
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No imagination required.  We have seen other large countries or unions collapse and break up before.  Ours will be very similar.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:52 | 3116365 Ignatius J Reilly
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My appologies.  I'm looking for the catalyst, the switch, whatever, that actually causes the default.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:07 | 3116457 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I don't think you'd notice crossing an actual event horizon either because your frame of reference.  You'd just all of a sudden be there.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:40 | 3116321 pods
pods's picture

The debt cannot be solved.  It is not supposed to be solved.

It is the solution. 

Now the problem of debt currency+interest, that is the problem.

The solution= More Debt.

If you put those glasses on, things become perfectly clear.


Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:53 | 3116378 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

ad infinitum ... one way trip to Zimbabwe?


There has to be a resolution, doesnt there have to be a default?

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 18:13 | 3116491 seek
seek's picture

There is no solution with the current amount of debt. To get to the point where we simply aren't increasing debt (ie zero deficit + current outstanding debt) would take approximately a 34% cut in federal spending, and that's not counting any off-budget items, or increases in mandated spending (e.g. SS).

Just the cut alone would result in a depression-level decline in GDP. So the "solution" would be a 34% cut in spending, an instant depression, and a freeze on any additional SS spending, meaning current SS benefits would be divided across a growing pool of beneficiaries, and the checks would get progressively smaller as boomers rotated in. If we did all that, we could stay in the place we're are, but not crawl out of the hole.

Anything less than a zero deficit simply means the debt increases. Interest rates have to be close to zero for this to work at all. At 15% interest rates (those seen during the high inflation episode of late 70s/early 80s when Volker stepped in) our current debt would consume 100% of current federal tax revenue, with nothing left over for any spending whatsoever.

Any increase in interest rates accelerates the debt accumulation and point where it reaches the same as income. At 7% interest, the debt would cost $1T a year to service. Remember ll federal tax revenues are $2.5T, GDP is 15T, there's just not a lot of runway left here.

Ergo, until after the reset, we will never, ever again see interest rates far from zero. Which means when inflation happens, there will be no stopping it. And for the government to maintain purchasing power, it has to print even more (remember, it's the printing that causing the dilution of the dollar that leads to lost purchasing power.) We're in a positive feedback loop now, and the only escape are choices that today are considered too horrific to make -- and thus they won't be made.

You can see the posturing to create some sort of hybrid fascist/socialist state out of the wreckage, but I don't think TPTB that are planning this are comprending the size of the reset, and the fact that with a collapse economy, there won't be enough rewards to fascists or socialists to keep things going.

My bets are it falls apart 2015-2018. You can do all sorts of fun things with numerical modeling and assumptions, growth rates, etc. At current growth rates, our debt to GDP will be 200% by 2019, 400% by 2027. In the meantime the dollar is devaluing due to the printing -- how far can it be devalued before something breaks?

That's just the US. Don't forget Japan and Europe have their own issues -- any of which can demand a financial response from the US that triggers the final implosion.

Thu, 01/03/2013 - 04:34 | 3117968 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

These "economic" analyses can take one only so far. The Jew-Stalinist oligarchs and their goy stooges know economic collapse is coming fairly soon, after which they'll no longer be able to buy consent with debt issuance. That's why the gun grab: hard to gulag people who can shoot back. I expect the Grab w/in 60 days of Obama's inaug, shortly followed by 1,2,3...many Ruby Ridges/Wacos. Then flat out, hot Civil War: Right vs Left, Race vs. Race, Rural vs. Urban, States vs. Center. We don't have 3 years to prepare...3 months if we're lucky. Invest in lead. If you can find any.  

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 16:59 | 3116116 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Don't sweat it, we're all Keynnsian now.

Wed, 01/02/2013 - 17:02 | 3116134 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I think the Vapors said it best.

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