155,000 Jobs Added in December, Unemployment Rate 7.8%

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A surprisingly uneventful report, as BLS reports that 155,000 Jobs were added in December, right on top of the 156,000 expected, and in line with the number needed to keep up with the growth in the population, or at least the Old Normal growth. The unemployment rate was 7.8%, vs the 7.7% expected: who else is surprised that the rate is now rising with Obama reelected and when a lower unemployment rate means an earlier end to QE4EVA? The November unemployment rate was revised from 7.7% to 7.8%, just so headlines can proclaim the rate was unchanged, even though it was fractions away from a 7.9% print, compared to November initial 7.7%. According to the Household survey a materially less, or 28,000 jobs were added even as the number of unemployed rose by 164K. Average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.3% in December from November, compared to the 0.2% expected. The confusion continues as the BLS reports retail jobs were mysteriously down by 19,000 even as every retailer announced it was hiring the kitchen sink, while manufacturing jobs supposedly rose by 25,000 while the ADP report reported 6 months of reductions in a row. Construction jobs increased by 30,000. The Underemployment rate, U-6, remains steady at 14.5%. ADP, which will certainly be revised lower now, remains a farce.

The labor force participation rate: 63.6%, same as November:

A job breakdown from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in December. In 2012, employment growth averaged 153,000 per month, the same as the average monthly gain for 2011. In December, employment increased in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, and manufacturing.

Health care employment continued to expand in December (+45,000). Job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+23,000), in hospitals (+12,000), and in nursing and residential care facilities (+10,000). In 2012, health care employment rose by 338,000.

In December, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 38,000. In 2012, the industry added an average of 24,000 jobs a month, essentially the same as in 2011.

Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, led by employment increases in construction of buildings (+13,000) and in residential
specialty trade contractors (+12,000).

In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, with small gains in a number of component industries. In 2012, factory employment increased by 180,000; most of the growth occurred during the first quarter.

Employment in retail trade changed little in December, after increasing by 143,000 over the prior 3 months. Within the industry, employment in clothing and accessories stores fell by 19,000, following gains that totaled 55,000 over the prior 3 months. Elsewhere in retail trade, employment in automobile dealers and in food and beverage stores continued to trend up in December.

Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, professional and businesses services, and government, showed little change over the month.

In December, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.8 hours.

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Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:39 | 3121602 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

after the election companies were laying off employees big time, hurricane Sandy caused massive job losses, these numbers are crap, crap, crap..........

 

The Bernack is having his minions sell the dollar to force the market up again...... print, wash, repeat, print, wash, repeat

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:37 | 3121603 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Is this "good" enough to be bearish because it means no more QE?  Or is it "bullish" because it sucks?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:38 | 3121609 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Neither, that is the point: let the algos play with indecision.   

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:37 | 3121604 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

More Goldilocks Ben BS...AKA...Controlled Financial Demolition

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:38 | 3121606 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

Either these numbers have to be accompanied by the latest "rolled off the rolls and out of the workforce" number or we need a new metric entirely.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:38 | 3121610 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Prepare for equity market talking heads over at the BlowHorn to now start paying attention to the labor participation rate as a great thing...after ignoring its collapse for the last four years.  Cue Steve Liesman.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:39 | 3121614 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just the right number to keep Ben printing while at the same time " showing some progress". I love the smell of bullshit propoganda in the morning.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:50 | 3121653 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

But I remember yesterday's headline said The Printing Might Stop

Was that bullshit?   Were they lying - to inspire CONfidence that next year we would be once again 'LIVING LARGE'?

Say it isn't so.  I want to Live Large

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:39 | 3121616 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

The labor force participation rate: 63.6%, same as November:

 

Read up before commenting on this bullshit report!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:40 | 3121619 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This is actually a miss to me, considering the fact that I expected a much higher number due to the retail sector ramp-up for the holidays (which then get corrected in April/May when they let those people go....or they quit because retail jobs SUCK).

Sustained Stagflation is the New Normal, and breaking even is the new "wealth". 

Thanks, ZIRP!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:43 | 3121629 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Tyler,

 How about  overlay a chart of Stock Market participation / Volume decline.  Its the new..... "I Give UP" Normal!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:55 | 3121666 adr
adr's picture

Seasonal hires for retail are added in November. The average seasonal worker gets 14 hours per week at $9.25 per hour. There are a lot of stock room people who are hired the last week of december for inventory cleanup, but these are all temp agency hires for one to two weeks max.

All seasonal hires are dropped the first week of January and regular full and part time workers see their hours cut in half. The store manager and assistant manager will still get 35-40 hours, the other workers will be lucky to see 20.

Only the BLS would count a part time two week temp job as a job. In fact only full time jobs should count as jobs created.

One other thing is that I am surprised we still have over 400k people per week filing for unemployment, the part time hires aren't eligible. So that means we still have a mass hemmorage of full time higher wage jobs four years after the onset of "The Crisis".

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:07 | 3121684 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Excellent points here.  Although a few addendums:

The store manager and assistant manager will still get 35-40 hours, the other workers will be lucky to see 20.

In every store I worked in, the managers actually had to work MORE hours after the holidays, mostly due to after-hours inventory rechecks (I always volunteered to help when I worked retail, mostly for the OT).  For the grunts, 100% agree; I just had a buddy lose a job at a retail store (only to get another one) right after XMAS ended.

Only the BLS would count a part time two week temp job as a job.

ADP is WORSE at this, hence why their numbers are always inflated and off.  Someone who works 3 temp gigs in a month is counted like 3 jobs, it seems.

So that means we still have a mass hemmorage of full time higher wage jobs four years after the onset of "The Crisis".

Well, IMO, this has been happening for 30 years; it's just "louder" and more obvious now, and is reflected in personal spending, which in turn, will effect the economy (especially the retail sector).

Well, it SHOULD.  But to the govenrment, as long as CEOs keep buying yachts and more houses, shits all good to them.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:10 | 3121692 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

5 years*52weeks*400k initial claims=104 million initial claims, ha,ha, ha

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:41 | 3121621 realtick
realtick's picture

The Chicago Boys Are Done Manipulating The UNRATE

http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-chicago-boy...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:43 | 3121622 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

everyone on TV talking about the big bond selloff. Funny.

"I think the way to hedge against it is to....(pensive thought silence)......(epiphany)....buy some more equities.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:41 | 3121623 gimli
gimli's picture

When in doubt buy more gold and silver ..... currently on sale during New Year's week

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:56 | 3121667 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Can yall niggas wait until mid 1350ies before we start jumping into gold please? I've been waiting since back in may for a lower channel line touch and go..

 

http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/2012/12/if-gld-breaks-150-look-for-135-nex...

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:42 | 3121625 Cloud9.5
Cloud9.5's picture

January 21, 1930

“Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed  the tide of employment had changed in the right direction.”

– News dispatch from Washington.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:43 | 3121630 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

anybody remember the crisis of 2008 till 2009?

man that was really something...

I know it's been a long time ago, but in that era, people really had it hard you know!

I know, I know... history... I'm old because I keep talking about shit that happened so long ago... but still!

I still believe that one day, we'll have a great movie about that period in time!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:11 | 3121695 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

That was the most brutal few days of my life, but then Bernank started printing money so the sun could come out again and the flowers could bloom.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:43 | 3121631 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And then how many entered the workforce... 250 000?

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:44 | 3121638 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

250K? that's a lot of school dropouts!

 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:56 | 3121886 pinqy
pinqy's picture

The Labor Force increased by 192,000

+28,000 Employed, +164,000 Unemployed.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:46 | 3121635 UGrev
UGrev's picture

PLEASE stop with the 7.8 bullshit unless it's followed with /sarc.   and then I read the rest of the article. ... carry on.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:44 | 3121637 djsmps
djsmps's picture

At least David Sokol is innocent.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:45 | 3121640 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Come on Tyler..hit us with the B/D model Unicorn jobs figure.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:49 | 3121643 sablya
sablya's picture

The market proves it is STILL only about QE.  With the unemployment rate disappointment, the market rises, silver slightly recovers from its beat down.  Dollar is up, interest rates are up, stocks are up, PMs are down.  So, people are moving out of bonds and metals into stocks.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:47 | 3121645 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If the lower limit of the upward channel on gold breaks, expect $1500.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:51 | 3121654 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I not only junked you, but I would also defriend you from facebook if I where on it!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:57 | 3121669 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am going the other way. I green arrowed him. But 1,500 is not enough. Doc Engali is right. Let's knock this bitch down to 1k. I want a discount. I fugure that gets the 10yr over 3.5% too and the dual panic would be really fun to watch.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:58 | 3121672 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I agree...knock gold down and scare out the weak hands. Then we can start the next leg up.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:04 | 3121677 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have bad news to report to everyone. I just got to the coin shop and the head of the chinese and russian central banks and the entire population of India is in front of me on line trying to sell their physical holdings. Dammit!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:04 | 3121681 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Let's make a deal :)

We let it rise to 1900$ so I can sell my calls with a huge profit and than we sink it to 500$ so we can all buy it with a discount.

But me first :)

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:06 | 3121683 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well considering my lack over control over the situation, I will just continue to sit here and make stupid comments and waste away and if it works out for you I will be happy for you.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:46 | 3121646 adr
adr's picture

Remember, just like spending $550 billion instead of $560 billion, when you spent $500 billion last year, is a $10 billion spending cut not a $50 billion increase.

With seasonal adjustments, if 300k people lost jobs in the month last year, but this year only 200k people lost jobs, that is a 100k job gain.

When they changed the BLS counting method, it immediatly added 100k bullshit jobs to the count every month. Q3 GDP was actually negative, just like Q4 employment. But you won't get the truth from the government or the complicit media.

How can I be sure I am right and they are wrong? I work and sell to the real economy and get true hard sales numbers every month. I don't get the luxury of seasonaly adjusting my sales to look better. For me to do that would be illegal.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:48 | 3121648 booboo
booboo's picture

I don't think this jalopy will make it to the cliff. I see a rusted and burned out heap of rat infested what was a 69 Chevelle muscle car sitting on blocks 12 feet from the abyss with the skeletal remains of the driver gripping the steering wheel and a moth eaten Obama/Biden hat perched on his skull

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:49 | 3121649 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

"who else is surprised that the rate is now rising with Obama reelected? The November unemployment rate was revised from 7.7% to 7.8%, just so headlines can proclaim the rate was unchanged."

 

wow, you guys sound desperate. 

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:50 | 3121651 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Noisy in here today.

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Here are the unadjusted figures:

U3: 7.6% (up from 7.4%)
Emp-Pop Ratio: 58.5% (down from 58.8%)
Employed: -500k
Unemployed: +440k
U6: 14.4% (up from13.9%)

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:52 | 3121659 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

So how many years has it been now since the BLS revised their numbers upward?

 

Vegas bitches.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:52 | 3121662 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

It like having a recovery and now one showed up.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:54 | 3121663 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

ADP a farce?  But Liesman actually said that he was impressed the way ADP "guided the market" to the correct expectation of nonfarm.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:56 | 3121670 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

In the age of made up numbers  Liarman is once again proving how big of a tool he actually is.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:56 | 3121668 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Charting the state of the U.S. economy: EPI's Top Charts of 2012

In November 2012, the labor market had 3.7 million fewer jobs than when the recession began in December 2007. And, because the potential labor force grows as the population expands, the economy should have added 5.2 million jobs since December 2007 just to keep the unemployment rate stable. Counting jobs lost and jobs that should have been added, the U.S. economy has a jobs shortfall of 8.9 million.

How is a labor shortfall of 8.9 million a "recovery"? 


Fri, 01/04/2013 - 09:59 | 3121671 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Bullish for the Hawaiian tourist industry.

During the last Depression Herbert Hoover spent most of his time fly fishing, Body surfing is how the current chooses to pass the time.

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:04 | 3121679 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No one cares about jobs anymore, where's da FREE MONEY at??

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:22 | 3121740 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

It was used to buy bad MBS from JPMorgan and Bank of America

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:04 | 3121680 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bullish for the band-aid factory, need to rename this country to the United States of bullshit, patches, and temporary fixes!

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:05 | 3121682 All Out Of Bubblegum
All Out Of Bubblegum's picture

Utter horse hockey. The true rate is upwards of 20%. Anyone that still takes any Federal agency seriously needs to ungullify their sucker instinct.

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Fri, 01/04/2013 - 10:47 | 3121837 pinqy
pinqy's picture

Have you done the math? To get his 22.9%, Williams is adding about 17 MILLION more people on top of the U6. And yet there are only about 4 million people who say they want to work who are not already included in the U6 (because of unavailability or haven't looked for work in over a year).  So where's he getting 17 million from?

And keep in mind that the U6 includes about 8 million people who are working, but not as many hours as they want.

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