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    Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back...

Peter Schiff & Doug Casey On Gold, Investor Cluelessness, And The "Escape From America" Plan

Tyler Durden's picture


In just under 30 minutes, Peter Schiff and Doug Casey muse on many facets of the crumbling edifice of the status quo that is our current world.

From Gold's relatively imminent rise to $5,000 and beyond, to investor ignorance of reality, Casey & Schiff swing from discussions of the US as political entity going forward to 'escape from America' plans for personal and wealth assets, and the realization that the biggest casualty (of US indebtedness), aside from individual liberty, is the value of the dollar - as taxing the middle class is unpopular with both parties - leaving only one route for the government - the inflation tax. Owning gold, silver, and foreign assets is preferred and while the rest of the world is also printing, the US is likely to beat them all.

People "are clueless with respect to the true state of the global economy," with regard to inflation, fiat currencies, and specifically what will happen to the dollar. The conversation is wide-ranging and absolutely must-see as they remind market-watchers that "the whole thing is artificial," as you can't just keep printing money and monetizing debt without the dollar imploding with monetary policy descending (along with its trillion dollar coin) into 'Three Stooges' comedy.

The conversation weaves to some endgame discussions which bring Peter to discuss his father, who he sees as a political prisoner, and his views on the future...

"the biggest change that is coming to the global economy is a realignment of global living standards."

There is something here for everyone...

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Thu, 01/31/2013 - 02:53 | 3201696 gwar5
gwar5's picture

If you shoot a gun as good as your mouth no one need worry.


Defeatist Fantasy: Obama just finished a new $273 Million deep underground bunker expansion under the WH.  http://usahitman.com/obama-wh-bunker/

Play the game: thttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r11emn9gXk




Thu, 01/31/2013 - 06:15 | 3201832 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

They moved the Money Hole from New Mexico to DC - saves transport costs.


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 06:19 | 3201837 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

alright.  say it stays a fantasy and one doesn't actually need the guns.  the gold and silver still look hard to beat.  

the electric image of debt money is truly astronomical (trillions and trillions) right?  real interest rates are negative.  the central banks cannot raise interest rates.  institutional investors own little gold or silver or even their miners.

that the central banks have far less gold than they say and that what does exist is rehypothicated/fractionally reserved/whatevered a hundred times at least is just gravy.

where's the defeat?  looks a lot more like the opposite.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:16 | 3201088 GNWT
GNWT's picture

party like it's 1999...


with the Silver Liberation Army...





Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:16 | 3201095 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

enough already.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 08:55 | 3201959 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

GNWT, please, take the hint.  Take it (and the relentless SPAMMING) with you. 

And close the door on your way out. 


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:28 | 3201125 daz
daz's picture

but if investors would think the US going to default.. they wouldn't buy.... someone must be buying... oh wait...

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:32 | 3201139 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

US is going hero to zero according to pete, best to be paper poor.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:37 | 3201147 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

SWEET!  I love videos of 2 old white guys rambling on and on.  You guys really know how to party!

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:50 | 3201181 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Glad you could be here to join us.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 02:37 | 3201685 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Because... Gen Y's know so much?



Thu, 01/31/2013 - 10:49 | 3202293 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture


 It's better to stay silent and look a fool, rather than speak and remove all doubt. 

 - Mark Twain


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:41 | 3201156 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Peter Schiff's dad is a hero.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 23:12 | 3201240 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Irwin is a political prisoner for the likes of the following:

As Casey likes to say, America was an idea
(that no longer survives).

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:04 | 3201375 Seer
Seer's picture

Ask either of these guys if America could have ever been expected to survive perpetual growth.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:48 | 3201164 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

Schiff was good, as he sounded nearly identical to Paul Singer, in the later thread.  But unlike Singer who offered no action, Schiff suggested gold, and investing abroad, to protect wealth.  Still, he had his negatives: lack of profanity, lack of Rothchild/Jewish/NWO conspiracy, lack of firearm mention and calm, articulate demeanor.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 01:54 | 3201640 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Where's Alex jones and that Limey?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:46 | 3201169 franzpick
franzpick's picture

you can't just keep printing money...without the dollar imploding

And the collapse could start any day now, right here at $index 79.24, breaking either 1 year, or much worse, 5 year, technical support, the good news being that dollar-denominated Au will go up $90 to $1770 or so with a 400 pip move to the 5 year index low at 72. YMMV (your math):


Wed, 01/30/2013 - 22:57 | 3201201 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

Just want to say "sawat-dee " to my fellow Zero Hedgers after a few month long hiatus while bailing out of the U.S. and relocating internationally.

Its still early in the new adventure, but everyday I feel stronger that our decision to move was the best choice personally and financially (only adding to strong convictions prior).

I wish all the best to Peter and his father in overcoming the tyranny that the "justice" system has bestowed on his family.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 23:03 | 3201219 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Keep us updated how it's going Floordawg.


BTW, if you run into a little golden-skinned thing named Ping Toy (i think that's her name) in Phuket, tell her "Hello!" for me.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 23:21 | 3201267 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Congrats and welcome to the club

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 02:32 | 3201680 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Welcome back. I'm going to Asia in few months. Reports from some places there seem better than bug out to Latin America. US IRS doubled the size of their facility in nearby Costa Rica 2 years ago.


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 08:57 | 3201964 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

But if you are not Asian you won't ever integrate completely.
Thailand, Singapore, _________?

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 23:01 | 3201211 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Central Banks buying so much gold and gubbermints amassing hundreds of thousands of assault weapons....makes me nervous.

Wed, 01/30/2013 - 23:53 | 3201348 mightycluck
mightycluck's picture

love Schiff


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:02 | 3201371 Verum
Verum's picture

Predicting the future using information from the past as filters for your future vision is a common trap that people fall into.  The U.S., U.K, Japan etc are not equivalent to Argentina or Zimbambwe.  The developed world, the western world, is all in a very similiar situation and the heads of state will work together to resolve their issues.  There is more likely to be a forgiveness of debt, a new issuance of common currency basket and tarriffs placed on countries that will not participate in the global monetary movement - thus encouraging involvement if countries want to receive imports at fair prices.  All of that mentioned is much more likely than a meltdown and return to 1920s living.  This will not happen.  Economies and societies advance in the way that we will not go back to a time without air conditiioning or heat or well paved roads or cars.  There is no return to depression standards.  This is not to say that there may be a short term rough patch on the way but the ultimate way forward is one of a cohesive movement to restore/retain and advance the current living standard which will occur at any cost as that is people's main concern, that is, living well and providing for their families.  Get ready for whippy markets and focus on policy evolvement but understand that once the dust settles and the storm passes, all will be well and we will continue under a new monetary regime.  Its just money people, while it is the oil of any economy, it is not the engine or the wheels or the driver, it is an additive that got bad and needs to be switched out in order for the economic and sociatial machine to keep rolling forward. 

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:13 | 3201403 Seer
Seer's picture

" Its just money people, while it is the oil of any economy, it is not the engine or the wheels or the driver, it is an additive that got bad and needs to be switched out in order for the economic and sociatial machine to keep rolling forward. "

Well, THE problem is that we have been acting as though that "its just money" is that, that it's just money, that it is standalone/self-supporting.  Money has to grow because the environment that it works in is expected to grow: more profits, larger GDP etc etc.  For years we have fudged the very notion of growth, the profits, the GDP, all have been tweaked to appear to be delivering more growth.  BUT!  There's really only one thing that has truly driven rapid growth, and that's fossil fuels.  So, in a way your use of "oil" isn't too far off- it's more likely that today's backing of currencies is going to be tied to something just a tad bit more physical than IOUs, and that might be oil (and or with a combination PMs and other items YTBD).

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 17:47 | 3204073 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Predicting the future using information from the past as filters for your future vision is a common trap that people fall into. "

Everyone that tries to predict the future uses information from the past.  You can't know shit ahead of time.  Hence, the accurate statement "you can't predict the future".  Including you, fellow traveller.  

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:10 | 3201393 Lendo
Lendo's picture

Schiff is the man and one of my favorite economic commentators.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:14 | 3201407 Douglasnew
Douglasnew's picture

Does anyone on this site ever consider the fact that if Gold goes to $5,000 that the Government will Tax the Crap out of all those Evil and Ill gotten Gains from the Miserly Hoarders Holding the Babaraic Relic? Does anyone actually believe that the Politicians will not get their knarled claws around anything they can in order to redistribute your wealth to the masses to keep themselves in Power? The Powers That Be will paint the non-conformers as self centered, unpatriotic terrorists or worse. Confiscation by Taxation and New Rules in the name of what is best for our Civil Order will become the new new normal.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:21 | 3201436 Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

Not if they sell under the table and not if they come up to Canada and sell to Canadians.

I trust the government to catch gold transactions about as well as they do drug deals.



Thu, 01/31/2013 - 01:24 | 3201589 August
August's picture

"Not if they sell under the table and not if they come up to Canada and sell to Canadians."

The Canuskistani government, however, just might be coaxed into reporting any US citizens who sell gold in Canada; "common defense perimeter", and all that.  I believe the current rule is that any transaction above C$3,000 requires that a government-issued ID doument be shown. 

The sous la table route remains open, of course.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 01:18 | 3201574 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Let's see...

you are arguing that the very same government that is essentially owned by the financial elite will, in effect, "tax the crap" out of their benefactors (who own the vast majority of privately held gold)?

Got it.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 01:30 | 3201600 malek
malek's picture

Does anyone ever consider that as long as "Taxing the Crap out of Gains" results in a rate of less than 100% of the gains, that the owners of gold will still be better off than the ones holding paper dollars?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 02:24 | 3201671 gwar5
gwar5's picture

We know, and they already do. But PMs take $$ out of the system and are hard to track in an underground economy. Land and titled property not so much.



Thu, 01/31/2013 - 07:10 | 3201859 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture



Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:42 | 3202061 hapless
hapless's picture


In fact, it would be best not to bring the PMs out of secure hiding until the air is filled with the stench of the rotting apparachtik.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:16 | 3201413 Seer
Seer's picture

How come Schiff doesn't think that the US is currently in recession?  Also, how does he get that Europe is settling down and that it might hold this way for a couple more years?

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 05:21 | 3201799 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Yes. Almost all of what he said rang true -- but those two ideas not so much.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:19 | 3201415 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

prisoner number 08537-014

aka  Irwin Schiff

is a political prisoner as his son Peter says:

author of the following books

  • Federal Mafia: How It Illegally Imposes and Unlawfully Collects Income Taxes (1992) The Great Income Tax Hoax: Why You Can Immediately Stop Paying This Illegally Enforced Tax (1985)
  • How an Economy Grows and Why It Doesn't (1985)  
  • The Social Security Swindle: How Anyone Can Drop Out (1984)
  • How Anyone Can Stop Paying Income Taxes (1982) -
  • The Kingdom of Moltz (1980)
  • The Biggest Con: How the Government Is Fleecing You (1977)

The Kingdom of Moltz is excellent


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:24 | 3201443 rlouis
rlouis's picture

Peter - thank you for keeping the US competitive spirit alive and giving the French some competition in being the most COMPLETELY BROKE.

Also appreciate your calling B Bernanke the WORST Fed Head ever. 

Best wishes to your father.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:40 | 3201485 MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture

Nice to see an interviewer who asks questions and actually lets the interviewee answer them instead of constantly interupting the interviewee and pushing their agenda.

Good interview, good information

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:43 | 3201492 MaxThrust
MaxThrust's picture


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:44 | 3201498 UTICA CLUB XX PURE

Maybe we should pay the camera man a bit more. Weird angles. Love PS though... Still can't believe CT didn't elect him...

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 00:54 | 3201507 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
[Australian] Home prices fall for second straight year


"It is clear that the previous strong value growth conditions to which many home owners became accustomed of recent years are well and truly behind us."




PMs still beat a house as an "investment."

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 01:01 | 3201539 Seer
Seer's picture

Well... my home sits on Ag property.  I have to live somewhere.

I don't see PMs as an "investment," I see them as a store of wealth.  My Ag land is my "investment," as I fully expect it to return value in the form of producing food (which those with PMs can trade for).

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 05:39 | 3201809 caerus
caerus's picture

AMZN some of the worst price movement i have ever seen

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 08:09 | 3201902 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

Let us assume that a guy had enough money to go pretty much anywhere.

Where would that be?

I see posts from people who say they are already living abroad but they seem quite quiet on where that is.

Just asking.


Thu, 01/31/2013 - 09:45 | 3202066 hapless
hapless's picture

Nor do they say much about where they keep their gold buried.

Thu, 01/31/2013 - 11:43 | 3202484 vegas
vegas's picture

Bank in Bermuda, Belize, and/or Panama. Live in Panama, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica, and/or the Caribbean. Keep your gold in Bermuda and some very close by in a safe. Always have a "Plan A" and "Plan B"  exit strategy when SHTF. And finally, get good, reputable offshore attorneys. Never keep anything of value in Amerika; Chalky and his pals will eventually confiscate your wealth.

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