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Stanley Druckenmiller: "We Have An Entitlement Problem" And One Day The Fed's Hamster Wheel Will Stop

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two and a half years ago, George Soros' former partner Stanley Druckenmiller closed shop when he shut down his iconic Duquesne Management, after generating 30% average annual returns since 1986. Some time later he raised many red flags by being one of the first "establishment" types to expose the Fed's take over of the market when he said in a rare May 2011 interview that "It's not a free market. It's not a clean market.... The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." This was in the context of the constantly declining interest rates on an ever exploding US debt load. And while back then total debt was a "manageable" $14.3 trillion, as of today it is some $2.3 trillion higher moments ago printing at a fresh record high of $16.6 trillion, not surprisingly the phony buyer is still here only now he is buying not $19 billion by over $20 billion in total debt each week. But just like it was the relentless rise in the US debt that forced him out of his privacy in the public scene back then, so it was also the US debt that was also the topic of his rare CNBC appearance today (where he fiercely poked at all those other TV chatterbox pundits when he said "money managers should manage money and not go on shows like this") in the aftermath of his recent WSJ Op-Ed. There, he once again said what everyone knows but is scared to admit: "we have an entitlement problem."

Druckenmiller's definition of the problem:

The media was more concerned about the fiscal cliff and what might happen to the economy over the three months than the big picture which is the debt which is going to swallow our kids in 15 or 20 years. They totally take a pass on entitlements which is the problem. And the president comes out and says i'm not going to do this on the back of seniors. Those seniors, that we put out in the article, are all taking out more than they put in, and it's guaranteed under the system today that all the kids are going to get less than they are putting in...  the reason we're here is I think we have time to deal with this issue. If we don't deal with it in the next four or five years, we'll wake up and interest rates will explode and the next generation will have a very, very tough time and it's so unfair.... In 1994 entitlements were 50% of federal outlays, up from 28% in 1960, but to my horror under the George Bush administration they went from 50% to 63%. Now at 67% of all federal outlays are entitlements. To put that in perspective, if you look at the actuaries out there, entitlements are scheduled to grow $700 billion in the next four years just due to change in entitlements. That's as the demographics kick in.

A quick primer on the unsustainable Bernanke math:

If you normalize interest rates, i'm not talking about a spike, just normalize where they were before QE and took them to 5.7% federal funding costs of the debt, that's $500 billion a year in interest expense that goes out door. We're having a heart attack over an $85 billion sequester when we can lose $500 billion just if you normalize. The way markets work if and when that were to happen, you don't normalize, you keep going because the market figures out that you now have a credit problem which is exactly what's happened in the foreign nations.

A reminder on the irrationality of bond markets:

The bond market is a funny thing. In Greece the bond market was perfectly fine until February of 2010. Not moving, not doing anything, and then in two weeks it was over.

The topic of the free Fed money's diminishing returns is well-known:

The market is fine because you've got all the free money in the federal reserve. But that can only last so long. Eventually the hamster can't move on the wheel anymore and the free money has less and less impact.

His solution: means testing:

Means-test people like me on social security. You realize I've done all right in life, okay? I'm going to start getting social security checks in five years. It's absurd. And i'll get the same social security checks that some people who have not done so well are. And the same thing with medicare. Raise the ages, as I pointed out earlier. When all this stuff was started, life expectancy was way below where it was now, and frankly probably the guesses on life expectancy where they are are too low. It's not that hard.

Finally, on political incentives to act, or rather not:

... Congress is not getting the market signal we talked about in the article so you can scream all you want about congress and the president being clowns, I can't think of any political system anywhere where they acted without interest rates going up. When did greece act? When the bond market blew up. When did Spain act? When the bond market blew up. What was Clinton's response to Rubin, "you mean the f'ing bond market is in control." Doing what they are doing the politicians have no incentive, but the market is a very fickle and violent thing. I don't think it's today, but we've got 3-year-old kids we've promised we'll get them through college and once college is done we'll get them a job. it's going to happen before those kids.

But of course, the merest suggestion of any of the above becoming policy and whoever is in charge screams bloody "austerity" knowing full well their political career is over the moment people's entitlements are cut.

And thus: back to square one.

The full clip follows below:

And for those who missed it, here is the WSJ op-ed from a week ago penned by Stanley Druckenmiller and former Fed governor and current Fed critic, Kevin Warsh:

Generational Theft Needs to Be Arrested

A Democrat, an independent and a Republican agree: Government spending levels are unsustainable

We come from different backgrounds, parties and pursuits but are bound by a common belief in the promise and purpose of America. After all, each of us has been the beneficiary of the choices made—and opportunities created—by previous generations of Americans.

One of us grew up poor in the South Bronx of the 1960s and went on to lead a children's antipoverty program in Harlem. Another grew up in a small town in South Jersey, and went on to be a leading money manager. The third grew up in a small suburb in upstate New York and found his way to serve in the government amid the financial crisis.

One of us is a Democrat; one, an independent; another, a Republican. Yet, together, we recognize several hard truths: Government spending levels are unsustainable. Higher taxes, however advisable or not, fail to come close to solving the problem. Discretionary spending must be reduced but without harming the safety net for our most vulnerable, or sacrificing future growth (e.g., research and education). Defense andhomeland security spending should not be immune to reductions. Most consequentially, the growth in spending on entitlement programs—Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare—must be curbed.

These truths are not born of some zeal for austerity or unkindness, but of arithmetic. The growing debt burden threatens to crush the next generation of Americans.

Coming out of the most recent elections, no consensus emerged either to reform the welfare state or to pay for it. And too many politicians appear unwilling to level with Americans about the challenges and choices confronting the United States. The failure to be forthright on fiscal policy is doing grievous harm to the country's long-term growth prospects. And the greatest casualties will be young Americans of all stripes who want—and need—an opportunity to succeed.

Three main infirmities plague Washington and constitute a clear and present danger to the prospects for the next generation.

First, the country's existing entitlement programs are not just unaffordable, they are also profoundly unfair to those who are taking their first steps in search of opportunity. Social Security is one example. According to Social Security actuaries, the generational theft runs deep. Young people now entering the workforce will actually lose 4.2% of their total lifetime wages because of their participation in Social Security. A typical third-grader will get back (in present value terms) only 75 cents for every dollar he contributes to Social Security over his lifetime. Meanwhile, many seniors with greater means nearing retirement age will pocket a handsome profit. Health-care spending through Medicare represents an even less equitable story.

The government has an obligation, of course, to support needy seniors. But this pension system is ripe for common-sense reforms, including changing eligibility ages and benefit structures for those with greater means, ridding the Social Security disability program of pervasive fraud, and removing disincentives for those who would rather work in their later years.

Powerful, vested interests portray reformers as avowed enemies of seniors. But, the status quo is, in fact, tantamount to saddling school-age children with more debt, weaker economic growth, and fewer opportunities for jobs and advancement.

Second, while many in Washington pay lip service to the long term, few act on it. The nation's debt clock garners far less attention than the "fiscal cliff" clock. Elected officials continue to allow the immediate to trump the important. Washington appears poised to forego fundamental reform at the altar of the expedient, yet again. This could have tragic consequences.

In successive administrations, the country has spent trillions in temporary tax credits and short-term "stimulus" to goose growth by the next election. What do we have to show for this spending surge? Modest growth, declining incomes and a level of national debt that undermine our long-term prospects.

The Federal Reserve's policies reinforce this short-term orientation. To offset weak economic conditions, the Fed's principal policy objectives appear to be twofold: suppress interest rates and raise stock prices. As a result Congress may be missing market signals and failing to see the costs of its spending addiction in time to undertake real reforms. Ultimately, economic fundamentals—not the promises of central banks—will determine the prices of stocks and bonds.

But the deeper failing is one of essential fairness. The benefits of rising stock prices accrue to those who have already amassed wealth at the expense of those who are struggling to save. And failing to deal with runaway spending will burden the country's children with higher interest rates and a debt bomb that will come due in their lifetimes.

Third, too many politicians appear more eager to divide the spoils of electoral victory among their own than to increase the size of the economic pie for all. The grab-bag of special tax favors under the guise of the recent fiscal-cliff deal is only the latest example.

Crony capitalism and corporate welfare aren't just expenses we cannot afford. They are an anathema to economic growth. They deny opportunities to aspiring people and companies who seek to better their lot. They ration opportunity based on things other than merit and hard work. They further ensure that poor children—who already are disadvantaged by failing schools, inadequate health care and little access to necessary resources—will never get the chance to break the cycle of generational poverty through education.

Some individual Americans are surely better off than they were many years ago. The more probing question is whether America is better off. That can only be true if the hopes and aspirations of the next generation are achievable.

The country must find the courage, conviction and compassion to fix what ails it. The opportunity to advance real reform is still possible. But failure to reform the entitlement culture, reaffirm long-run objectives, and re-establish a common purpose will mean a dimming of opportunities for American children today and for future generations. And a great nation will have ceded more than its greatness, but its goodness.

 

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Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:10 | 3265791 Hulk
Hulk's picture

As I have been saying for twenty years, we have lost our minds...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:39 | 3265416 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Double 747's

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:11 | 3265983 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

As of February 18th, 2013, the number of rounds of golf played by the Golfer-In-Chief is...115

 

http://obamagolfcounter.com/

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:15 | 3265171 Dubious Maximus
Dubious Maximus's picture

seriously, i don't see how this great global experiment ends without some serious societal pain (much higher taxes coupled with much lower gov't handouts---but the politicos won't do that because they wouldn't get re-elected. or a global war..

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:15 | 3265174 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

We don't have an entitlement problem, we have a too many people, baby boomers, collecting entitlements problem.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:19 | 3265187 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The entitlements will blow up on their own. The bankers will be the ones betting on them while they detonate. You have to prosecute the fraud.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:27 | 3265214 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Bankers et al own the courts, lawyers, judges, and legislators. It's a non-solution.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:31 | 3265222 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

when I said prosecute I was not referring to using the judicial system.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:00 | 3265312 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Maybe you meant persecute ?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3265363 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

lol I really meant electrocute.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:26 | 3265383 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Illegal aliens are getting loads of benefits too. .

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:21 | 3265193 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Along those same lines, we dont have a problem with our health care system.  We have a problem with too many unhealthy people.

Nature has a way of dealing with these problems.  They are effective and impartial.  If we would stop fucking with the perfect natural system we would start to progress again as a species instead of digressing like we are now.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:46 | 3265277 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Survival and Empowerment of the Weakest - Yeah - That will work.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:26 | 3265195 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Fell for the whole age/religion/race/class warfare thing, did you?  I've been working since I was 14 years old, paid better than $250K into social security over the last 47 years, and still have 5 years to go before collecting benefits.  Just let me stop paying in now and give me back the $250K+ that I've already paid in and we'll call it even....

So, you're one of those "just kill everyone under 10 or over 30 and call it good" types?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:53 | 3265300 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

not being smart..but won't you live until you are 91, thus taking 25 years (die at 91 claim from 66) worth of benefits of c. $30,000 a year = $750,000? I have no idea how much you will get...just asking..

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:18 | 3265650 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Who gives a shit if you've been working since you pinched your first loaf into a diaper and have been paying into the system ever since.

When approximately 10,000 baby boomers per day, of which I'm one, are starting to draw down on their SS benefits, and this is supposed to happen for the next 20 years, then you have a formula for disaster.

We're already printing and borrowing over a trillion a year to pay for these entitlements. And, will probably be printing and borrowing many trillions more to pay these entitlements.

So, exactly when do you believe the whole thing will implode from to many parasites sucking the life out of the host?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:38 | 3265180 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US debt is $16.54 trillion now and US unfunded liabilities are $122.81 trillion.  They rise at least $8.2 trillion a year. That works out to be $440,000 per citizen and rising $26,000 per citizen per year.

Means testing can only postpone the problem by a couple of years.  The inevitable end result is US default or hyperinflation.  

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:19 | 3265186 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

how long have we heard this kids, grand kids, next generation harm shit.  since the debt was at a $100 Billion?  we are being fucked here and now, they are going to print and devalue because it's game over if interest rates go up.  game. fucking. over.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265234 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

Exactly, It's a bit late in the game to worry about my kids

Because at our present rate this will be over soon, we should think more immediate

You ain't gonna fix this....no way

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:47 | 3265283 resurger
resurger's picture

no way out

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:20 | 3265191 skipjack
skipjack's picture

Not to mention that we don't need government spending on education, either.  Please stop the debt enslavement via student loans and the dumbing down of k-12 curriculum.  And just close down Fannie/Freddie already...and disband the TSA...and cut DOD by 50%...get rid of SSI and any government involvement in healthcare, including the protection from anti-trust of the health care/drug industries.  And...3 gajillion othre things that the government has no business being in...

 

Ah well, I can dream...

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:20 | 3266009 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Your dream has a similar sound to a Ron Paul speech. Yes, we had a dream at one point.

 

FORWARD BITCHEEZ!!

HOPE AND CHANGE!!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:21 | 3265192 busternc333
busternc333's picture

Holy shit. Just turned on msm news for the first time in a year. What the f*ck? We're doomed.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:24 | 3265204 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

What?  The whole snowstorm in winter coming thing?  Yeah, like that's never happened before...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:43 | 3265270 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

You mean it is snowing in February????

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:58 | 3265309 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes, yet another crisis...up to two feet of snow on the drought plagued fields & aquifer of the mid-west...ohhhhh the humanity of it all...ROTFL!!!

And to top it all off, Bidens giving homeowner self defense courses on Facebook! Unload that shotgun into the clear blue sky momma!

Gawd...I feel like I'm living in the Twilight Zone.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:06 | 3265331 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Maybe those homeowners need to buy some of the targets the professionals use:

http://www.letargets.com/estylez_ps.aspx?searchmode=category&searchcatcontext=~010000~010100~010101.2

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:15 | 3265353 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Ah yes, the 'No More Hesitation' targets, so the DHS won't have any qualms about shooting children, pregnant mothers and old men and women.  And what a great tagline the company has - 'Targeting For a Safer America'.  What a fucking travesty.  Yes, we'll all be so much fucking safer when we can walk the streets secure in the knowledge that our protectors are ready to shoot to kill any eight-year old boys, teenage girls or old ladies that might come at us with a shotgun.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3265364 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Actually made me feel sick when I saw the website.  There's a trite little 'but the gubbermint asked for them' notice on the site now.  They sound surprised by the backlash, the death merchant scum.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 02:43 | 3266232 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

We've been very good at this for decades.  How many suckling babies do you think we incinerated in Dresden (we fried 40k German civilians, but don't ask Jew PhD Debra Lipstadt who says holocaustianity applies only to jews).

Same question: Hiroshima?  Nagasaki?  Oh, I forgot, it's OK when we blow up atomic bombs!   

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3265366 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everytime that fool Biden speaks I feel like I'm in the twilight zone. I keep thinking that even the left will wake up to the stupidity of this guy, but alas it seems they are even dumber than him.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:05 | 3265472 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I used to think Biden was the dumbest possible pick for Veep by the most unqualified person to ever be considered to hold the office. Now I have to admit I was wrong...we should all pray every night for Obama's continued health.

Obama may be the most ignorant EVER of the complete concepts of human rights, free economies & narcissistic to his very bones but Biden genuinely does have cognitive issues.

Biden is a walking, talking, ready made case for background checks based on ones mental abilities and he even openly admits he's armed ;-)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:33 | 3265693 brettd
brettd's picture

Biden was perfect and intentional:

So Barry could send the most glib-'50-fratboy-white-country-club-"yes man"-moron around th globe as The Face of America.

That is, when BHO himself wasn't out genuflecting to thugs and offering alms to the Iranians.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:04 | 3265967 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Biden was Obama's ultimate life insurance policy.

Any fool that takes Obama out leaves Biden in his place.  And, for a while there, back-up was fucktoid Pelosi.  Triple threat.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:51 | 3265728 brettd
brettd's picture

doublepost.  sorry.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 01:30 | 3266143 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Just living in an Idiocracy.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:28 | 3265390 Freddie
Freddie's picture

F TV and Hollywood.   They are evil and brainwash the masses.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:23 | 3265197 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Yes, but when Jews control your country, they just print money, give it to themselves, and then distribute food stamps and porn to the population.

Utopia realized.  Well done.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:27 | 3265216 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Well, at least its good porn.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265233 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

MOAR Kelly Wells & Daphne Rosen...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:02 | 3265605 Blano
Blano's picture

Do I dare look them up??

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:38 | 3265882 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The worst of the worst certainly can't be any worse than the treatment you're subjected to each & every day...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:23 | 3265200 natronic
natronic's picture

The sad part about it is the political class won't listen and the USD is doomed.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:58 | 3265308 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They are listening alright... to the lobbyists.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:25 | 3265207 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

We have had a problem whereby people like Soros and Duckface can make zillions of dollars for doing no productive work, essentially enabled by a rigged system of finance that throws such distortions that ordinary savers can not prosper.

Those people who have nothing useful to offer their fellow humans can take the time to become "money managers" which means simply, managing to take others' hard earned money...people like "aw shucks" mister false modesty himself Warren Buffet, Mitt and countless others.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:26 | 3265209 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

I think its fascinating how for 2.5 million years of human existence humans have advanced, progressed and evolved until the invention of the modern super state.

The super state has taken control of human growth and development recently and we are now digressing.

http://naturalsociety.com/leading-geneticist-human-intelligence-slowly-declining/

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:41 | 3265262 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Progress?

U no read history?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 01:34 | 3266147 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Progress allows for a bigger government parasite.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:27 | 3265215 davidsmith
davidsmith's picture

 They totally take a pass on entitlements which is the problem

 

He must be talking about the entitlement which allows the top 10% income earners to steal from the rest of us.  I agree: they should be means tested--to death.

 

Overthrow the U.S. Government now.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:37 | 3265247 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

If when you say "overthrow the US govt now" you mean "let the US govt crush itself under the weight of its own debt and collapse" then Im all for it.

No pitchforks needed to end this shit show.  Just more debt and the problem solves itself.  I promise.  Just watch.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:39 | 3265257 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Call in Putin or Montebourg, I'm sure he would love to save the american people a second time!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265228 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

Why is it that these characters only talk about taking entitlements away from seniors, and never mention taking them away from welfare queens.

Racial politics pure and simple.

Grandma and grandpa are going to have to move in with the kids, and the younger generation of whites is going to be hugely pissed off when they realize the impact of this.

The food stamps, the aid to dependent children, the refundable tax credit, the section 8 housing allowance, the free medicaid, the disability benefits, the unemployment benefits amount to much more than the average Social Security benefit.

This is going to get ugly.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:38 | 3265254 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Dont forget all the corporate welfare too.  End that also.  End all forms of public assistence.  It wrecking the human race.  Welfare is a powerfully destructive force and should be rejected by all humans.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:44 | 3265430 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Exactly right.

Everyone thinks we (I) wish to protect business. I don't. They should stand or fall on their own merits. At the same time you can see the logic of...if government imposes on a refinery (for example) to re-tool in order to produce/blend ethanol from corn, there is a cost to industry to do it...they have been damaged (monetarily) by government policy.

What I'm saying is, government can be like the bull in the china shop while also acting as the insurer for damages done and does it alot. I'm not even sure they know they do it...it just "feels right" to most of them.

Does anyone really think "bankers" & strip mall shysters wanted to write and hold money losing subprime loans? Of course they didn't or they would have been doing exactly that for centuries.

Government forced both those examples...thats why no BIG FISH have gone to jail or ever will.

It was government policy.

Government policy is now to hold up the Keystone Pipeline, who benefits, monetarily, that we can see and observe their reaction? Warren Buffet and his railroad holdings.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/buffett-s-burlington-northern-among-winners-in-obama-rejection-of-pipeline.html

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:59 | 3265460 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

See how easy the truth is and how no one gives a shit because it's not want they WANT to believe. When you can convince people that the truth will set them free they run to prison. SO damn tired of the stupidity, but I appreciate what you are saying. IF it could only make a difference.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:27 | 3265518 nmewn
nmewn's picture

It won't make a difference...its easier to live the lie.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 01:39 | 3266151 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

It's not a lie if it's confirmation bias.

It's pre-wired truth.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 03:35 | 3266273 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

of course that depends upon what your definition of "is" is.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:44 | 3265559 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

superbly written amigo.
you scratch my back, i'll scratch yours.
we'll both get rich and fuck everyone else.
that's how they roll.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:41 | 3265715 nmewn
nmewn's picture

It is how they roll tip.

They seem convinced that simply trotting out strawmen "YOU'RE all gonna die" if you don't allow drones orbiting your porch and traffic cams on every corner or "these draconian TWO PERCENT CUTS IN GOVERNMENT GROWTH will plunge us into recession" will work again.

Judging by the past, they may just might...but I have faith in Yamamoto's prescience of us, if I didn't, I wouldn't be here ;-)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:58 | 3265759 brettd
brettd's picture

but what will it take to awake that giant?

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 03:34 | 3266271 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

maybe Enoch Root knows?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:41 | 3265264 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

It's the other way around... More likely It's the kids that are/will be moving in with Granmdma and Grandpa. The seniors have multiple pensions, Medicare, Social Security, and if they were smart they paid off thier home and are debt free....

It's the working (prior) middle class paying $4.50 a gallon to get to thier part time $10.50 an hour - seasonal- job, looking at throwing in the towel. 

So how do you trade it?

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:51 | 3265295 MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

There is no question that the generational movement will be in both directions. In some cases the kids will be moving into the over large house of the parents.

However, the Boskin commission adjustments to the CPI mean that Social Security benefits lag far behind the true cost of living. In another 10 years the spread between CPI and Shadowstats will cut the purchasing power of SS benefits in half.

In the mean time, the younger middle class will be saddled with ever rising payments for buying the votes of the welfare queens.

It will be interesting to see if we have a debt jubilee and a reset before the obvious social tensions from this explode in widespread violence.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:52 | 3265449 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

"This is going to get ugly."   is what they said in so many words.  They also said we still have a bit of time.   Means testing for SS is the least harmful cut which might buy a bit of breathing room.  All those who complain that they paid into it and are therefore entitled to it  are wrong..    As someone said above the money is gone and you have a claim on nothing.  Just get it through your heads that  you  will get nothing eventually and that time is fast approaching.  Getting wealthy seniors to prove they need SS is not an injustice. 

 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:55 | 3266081 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

How about we surrender our claim to social security if we get to sell our property that we worked for thirty years to pay for without capital gains. Its not that its worth more anyway, just the money we paid for it with is worth less. Its the least that they could do.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 02:00 | 3266186 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Oldwood

I am 50 and dont expect to collect from the system.  I want nothing from the system if possible, but I wish I had more real friends. 

Those guys are right because when the bond market goes down your house will be worth a fraction of what it might be worth today.  If interest rates go up to 5.7% I am guessing your house is worth half of its present value.  Druckenmiller tried to hint at the cost of just equalizing the interest rates  not seeing them do a Volker at 22%.   So you  are worring about losing SS.  You are going to lose alot more than that.  Thats why the gold bugs here are saying buy gold and some farm land and try to preserve the value of what you  have worked for.  The rest  of that stuff is gone.

If and when the global bond market pops and the currency crisis becomes real, most people on this planet have nothing.  It will get ugly and you are worried that you paid into SS or don't want to pay capital gains.   Where were you in 80-82.  This time its global.  

You got to deduct the interest on your mortgage for your house so the depreciation of the currency has been paid forward.  This stuff is meaningless.

 protect yourself those you give a rats ass about.   get used to it now that SS and the other entitlements are good as gone

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 05:04 | 3266331 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Currently I am where most people are and have little to worry about in terms of gain on my home. My assumption is that as things decline the governments response will to print wildly causing significant inflation. Thats when i worry. Also because they will be starving for revenues I wouldn't be the least surprised if they changed the allowances for capital gains on principle mortgages as well. It probably matters little anyway because as you suggest we will be totally screwed in at least several other ways by then. Gold holds little promise in the long run simply because they have proven that they can outlaw or tax it to irrelevancy. Land is an immobil, unhideable tax magnet. I currently live on fifty acres fifteen miles from the center of a major metro center and they are taxing the life out of me. I'm living in my own delusion because I don't want to sell but know its going to eat my ass. I'm 60 with a small business trying to slide off a cliff as well, plying in my mind if i should risk even more of my shrinking savings into it. I mean at 60 and the prospect of no SS and no job and 28k/yr in prop taxes wonder what in hell do I do? I'm bonused with a wife ten years my junior who is a realtor and is convinced this is just another reccession and all we have to do is wait it out. Like many here I feel like I'm the only one seeing this looming disaster and if i say much more about it the guys in the white jackets will show up to take me away. I do know I have it good compared to a lot of people but that just means I have more to lose. Those with less to risk can be dangerous as well. Just feeling a little torn up right now feeling like I may well lose everything and then have to listen to Obama telling me everything is getting better and oh by the way, I should be paying my fair share. In the end, just another "rich" whiner I suppose. 

Sun, 02/24/2013 - 15:53 | 3272025 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Oldwood,

Thats brutal.  How does fifty acres of farmland get valued so high to have to pay 28K in taxes.  Where I live undeveloped land seems to be undertaxed.  colusion of developers and shityhall, so run down properties in prime locations never get redeveloped and some prime land sits vacant forever.  we haven't had to squeeze the property tax lemon yet I guess.

Time to make a spread sheet and make several calculations based on varing degrees of optimism and pessimism looking forward and make a decisive strategic decision.   You are stuck between the hammer of property tax and the anvil of capitol gains.   When interest rates go up your land will deline in value and in a collapse it will be hard to sell.

I would also challenge the tax assessment because its not speculative land. 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 01:54 | 3266172 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Not one fucking peep about the trillion dollar security state scam?

Not one fucking peep about government pensions three times the size they should be for jobs that shouldn't even exist?

Or welfare for illegals? Or thousands of other things that shouldn't be funded?

Just SSI?

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265231 yogibear
yogibear's picture

He's 100% right.

Bernanke and the Fed keep printing and the US government keeps spending until the bond market blows and interest rates go up!

Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen, keep printing and enabling spending by buying debt until a currency crisis occurs and intrest rates go ballistic!

When it blows up it will be historic!!!!! 

Keep buying the US treasuries with printed money. Loose the reseve currency status and US dollars from the rest of the wold come flooding in.

 

 

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265232 rhinoblitzing
rhinoblitzing's picture

Frikin Elitist's...

"His Solution - ... means testing... raise retirement age..."

Right..... Where are those jobs that a 70 year old will be able to have and hold...

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:38 | 3265248 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

What this whole stinkin thing has turned into is so pathetic.....

Too much money in too few hands

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:34 | 3265238 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

The system is corrupt and it allows for TPTB to continue stuffing their pockets with gross amounts of money while smiling at the camera saying everythings fine don't worry we have everything under control. The curtain that hides the great and powerful Oz will one day be pulled aside (or torched) to reveal the putrid scum that have been shitting on the sheeples for what seems like an eternity.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:35 | 3265240 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

He isn't saying anything we all didn't know years ago.  The bail outs just made it worse, so did George W and Obama's war policies.

As broke as the system is, Washington is throwing money around like no tomorrow and Obama flies to play gulf in a 747 which is not cheap to operate.  It is a good thing they are printing money to pay for all this shit as my wallet is empty and if I make more coin, they aren't getting any of it.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:38 | 3265244 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Let the financial system collapse, as it is destined to, and seniors will have a strong dollar with which to buy deflated goods.  Problem solved.  Fukk the banks.  Communities will survive.  And fukk the government and its debt.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:40 | 3265260 q99x2
q99x2's picture

We have a FED problem and one day the entitlement hamster will imprison the banksters and re-distribute their stolen wealth.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:44 | 3265272 Kalevi
Kalevi's picture

    "we have an entitlement problem."

Completely agree.

Stop giving free money to the bankster and through them to MIC.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:49 | 3265287 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Okay, I get it, but is Obama gonna pay my mogage or not????

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:49 | 3265288 israhole
israhole's picture

Another Jew now critical of the Jew World Order that has benefitted him and Jew Soros for too long.  He'll get to the bottom of it!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:49 | 3265291 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm all for entitlement reform. Let's start with the welfare queen bankers , then the corporate beggars, and the thieving politicians. After we do all of that we can talk about raping the poor.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:53 | 3265297 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Exactly. That is exactly the correct order.

I love how a bunch of 55 year old say "this is not going to be my generation's problem". Yup. They will be dead in 30 years and this will all break down in 31 years, Holy deluded.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:51 | 3265296 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

A breath of fresh air that will be ignored until the US Economy hits the preverbial WALL!!!!!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 19:53 | 3265298 Slightly Insane
Slightly Insane's picture

Move a bit closer, I'm wispering .  ..... whatever the FED purchases ..... well guess what ..... it's WORTH  ..... LESS!

 

shhhhhhhh!   Don't tell anyone else but zh'r's

 

(For you Contrarians .... what they are not buying ...... has  ...... value ...... and merit)

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:00 | 3265299 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If they cut entitlements and food stamps (SNAP) and welfare and Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid there will be mass civil disobedience, non-payment of taxes, and huge black markets - if not riots and collapse in major cities.  The only thing preventing this now is entitlements.

They are too far down the path to turn back. Productive employment has been off-shored, parasitic capitalist oligarchs have colluded with the plutocrats to rape the citizenry and bleed out their assets, especially the backbone of any society - the middle class.  There is no amount of spending cuts or taxation that will pay the debt and return stability.

They can keep printing money to float the markets, keep bailing out the banks, keep enrolling more and more into SS disability and food stamps until the debt is so big we default or the whole thing collapses in on itself and martial law is declared (or they start WWIII).

It will probably start with rates going up, massive inflation (biflation, stagflation worse than what we have now), and propaganda campaigns (quadruple what we have today) along the lines of:  "If only we do'X' it will all be O.K.".

Money printing and propaganda can go on for quite a while but the train has left the station, the horses are out of the barn.

TOO LATE.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:01 | 3265314 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

No turning back now

It's full throttle head-on into a brick wall

It would be political suicide to even try to fix anything

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:38 | 3265706 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

There is nothing to fix anymore anyway, and more people are starting to wake up to that fact.

As history has proven, it's time for a paradigm shift, although there are those who want to keep the status quo as long as possible.

It's twilight for the cheap oil paradigm.

It'll be dark soon, and they mostly come at night... mostly.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:42 | 3265894 Phoenix_Rising
Phoenix_Rising's picture

It's going to be a beauty to behold

watching these pig fukrs go down

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:16 | 3265304 Judge Crater
Judge Crater's picture

Druckemmiller is proof that you can be an arrogant idiot and still get rich being a money manager on Wall Street. Steven Brill has an excellent long article in this week's TIME magazine that shows how hospitals use a "chargemaster" system that multiplies patient costs tenfold or more for patients not protected by Medicare. But if you expand Medicare to cover every hospital patient, there go the profits used to pay non-profit hospital honchos 7 and 8 figure salaries while the collection agencies used by medical-political complex to collect overdue hospital bills for under-insured patients are responsible for 60% of the individual bankruptcy court filings. The problem isn't entitlements; the problem are government sanctioned ripoffs everywhere, from hospitals to crooked bankruptcy court judges to endless wars that enrich politicians and insiders to a system of justice that locks poor people up for decades for relatively minor thefts while protecting insiders like Jamie Dimon and John Corzine from any criminal charges when they steal billions. Instead of Obamacare, Obama should remove the cap on earnings subject to Social Security. Then Obama should give every citizen with no medical insurance or bad medical insurance the option to join Medicare. Finally, Obama should legalize all narcotic drugs, which would cause all the lawyers and prosecutors and judges and cops who make a living off drug addicts to be forced to make a decision: find productive employment, file for disability or welfare benefits or commit suicide.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:27 | 3265387 11b40
11b40's picture

Amen.  Glad to see it so clearly put

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:09 | 3265477 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So if you remove the cap for social security taxes, and you means test it, its just another tax right? ANd you realize for the self empoloyed you are talking about a 15.7% income tax on top of regular taxes. And you also realize that basically forcing us all into medicare. Do you know anyone who uses medicare? Do you think thats the best care available? I don't. But by taxing the crap out of everyone to fund your wet dream of indefinite life span we will be severely limited in our ability to save or pay for our own healthcare of choice. But I guess in a collective world, it is all about you. Thanks,

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:42 | 3265721 player333
player333's picture

The Brill article made me sick to my stomach, each of the hospital spokespersons should be hanged for their obvious lying smugness.

Yes Government is the problem, from their involvement in Medicine(Medicare), Housing, and now fraud in the Obama Phone  giveaway, surprise, surprise.. Large Government takes on a life of its own and will suck up all resources-hence we have a "taxing problem".  As some one said here on ZH earlier, "there are black swans circling, it is just a matter of time before one crashes into the other or comes down of its own volution.It is time for "REAL Reveloution". 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 02:12 | 3266203 Joseph Jones
Joseph Jones's picture

I'm just reading through these posts as fast as I can.  Yours was the first one I absolutely could not resist voting up, especially the last two words.

A+.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:03 | 3265316 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nice ... we are arguing over the scraps and the bankers are eating filet mignon.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:03 | 3265321 Slightly Insane
Slightly Insane's picture

Actually this clown ... still has it wrong.  It ain't entitlements ..... we are wayyyyyyy past that stage.

Our problem is .... we are stupid  (well some of us anyway .... the ones that haven't left the system high and dry),

we allow a system which punishes creators and rewards the "taker".  The existance of politicians, lawyers, and bankers is ample proof that Prostitution is legal.  Anyone who is in prison is there because he or she operated outside the cartel's boundaries, and didn't have the wherewithall to throw a political contribution to a democrat.

 

It (as some ZH'rs have already alluded to) time for John Galt to make a showing.  Foks, (not the Million Dollar Whack Job - type assholes) - I'm done.  I'm going to slipstream from here on out .... if I can get a statist out of office on his ass .... I'll be behind the scenes .... These ass clowns have fucked our people up, it's time for payback in spades.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:04 | 3265322 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

entitlement problem???  WTF? we are talking about corporations....right? cause i all i know is i've paid (at the risk of jail time if i didn't) over $200K into SS and are you fucking saying i'm not "entitled" to get my fucking money back??

 

while corporate loopholes means most major corporations pay no fucking tax......FACEBOOK MUCH?

what the fucking fuck!!!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:05 | 3265326 besnook
besnook's picture

and under his breath he is saying, "it's them fucking jew bag bankers preventing a real fix because there is too much money in .gov money."

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:13 | 3265346 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

I would still rather have the social security system that Chilean citizens and some of the counties in Texas have for their municipal workers:  private volutary accounts into a limited selection of investment options.  We wouldn't have the current entitlement debtbomb (or is it deathbomb) if we had done this years ago as was reportedly advocated by none other than FDR himself, as well as Clinton, Moynahan, Bush, and others.  I think FDR also said something about how demographics will eventually blow up the SS system if it is not later reformed.

How unbelievably f'ing ignorant are we, when measured collectively?

http://www.aim.org/guest-column/social-security-reform-hypocrisy/

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba765

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:26 | 3265385 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

And . . . do the same things with health savings accounts for medicare.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:09 | 3265785 brettd
brettd's picture

We r ignorant because the govt controls education!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 23:46 | 3269178 bilejones
bilejones's picture

"How unbelievably f'ing ignorant are we, when measured collectively?"

 

You seem to be American. How deep does ignorant go?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3265368 Slightly Insane
Slightly Insane's picture

There will be blood in the streets.  This hamster of a hedge fund manager who made a shit ton of dough NOW comes out and says .... I'm worried.  This asshole missed that critical time when he should have stood up to the regulating assjacks and said NO.  Instead he waits until his sacred investments are potentially in jeapordy.  I say .... that fucking train left the station 10 minutes ago Jack!

 

Yeah, we're going to get entitlement reform ..... right after they disolve the Constitution.  It will ocurr as Vlad Putin says .... you're credit card is no good here .... cash only Komrade.  Same story with Xiozinhou (or whatever fuck his name is) .... your credit no god here joe .... got gold?  At this time, the libs and the dems will be the "deer in headlights party"  .... what we on the other side refer to as Harvestors .... or Meat, or just plain "slow moving targets".

 

When one comes to realize that the machine he voted for ... is willing to kill him, for shits and giggles ... then he will come to understand that he is not only a subject, a slave, and a stupid one at that .... but a Democrat.  Republicans are only one street away from this malaise  .... maybe 10 - 20 seconds behind, the shit they face is no better.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:30 | 3265396 Stuffs And Stuff
Stuffs And Stuff's picture

According to Dr. Joe Kerr, we don't have an entitlement problem - We have a brain problem.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:38 | 3265411 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Famous quote: when John Dillinger asked why he robbed banks, he said 'because that is where the money is'. .... Well, why do politicians want to rob social security, well first they already have robbed its supposed separate 'lockbox trust fund' by merging medicaid and forcing it to buy worthless gov bonds, now they want to cut its payout as it comes due in John Dillinger style.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 20:46 | 3265435 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The biggest violator is the GOVERNMENT who thinks it is entitled to borrow money from SS and never pay it back.

I agree SS needs to be looked at, but I want the government to return all borrowed funds and interest to the trust before enacting limitations on benefits.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:05 | 3265470 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Ah, but before too much longer, the're not going to have any assets left with which to pay the "benefits" if they don't reduce them for people who aren't going to retire for decades.  Or print our way into hyperinflation.

They never actually "borrowed" the money.  How does one entity borrow from itself?  They just spent a large portion of the ss taxes on general revenues as they have always done.  If they didn't, what else would they do with the money?  Invest 100% of the SS taxes in treasuries instead of only a fraction of it?  Screw that.

I don't want my retirement investments in treasuries at this time.  Even if they just left it in cash it would evaporate due to inflation.

You need something which can keep up with inflation.

Maybe a volutary private account with some gold and other stuff in it!

I'd vote for that.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:26 | 3265515 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

That is, they spent SS on general revenues, back when SS used to have a surplus -- imagine that!  Years if not decades sooner than we were promised it would happen, it turned into the current deficit.

It pretty sad how badly the CBO and others always underestimate the bad things and overestimate the good ones, projecting into the future.

How can they do that so consistently for decades and decades in a row?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:40 | 3265545 YouAreBliss
YouAreBliss's picture

What would the appreciation have been if they really did invest in 30 yr Treasuries when they were 6% a few years ago!!!!!!  The Soc Sec Trust fund would be brimming over!!!!!!!!!!

While every other pension fund bought loser equities for the last ten years  - The Soc Sec Trust fund would have had 100% in LT treasuries.   Every politician for the last 30 yrs should be tried for fraud and treason.

Like old Pete Dominici - Sure I'll baby sit your daughter!  Evil and Corrupt without any morals.  Wasn't this guy one of those "family values" Republicans?  Oh yeah he values your family - especially your young daughters.   Fucking incredible.  Worst then old "honest" and "honorable" Newt.  These folks are the ones in charge...excuse me while I go barf....

 

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/02/20/pete_domenici_michelle...

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:44 | 3265558 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

I'm sure I would have done exactly that (invest in treasuries years ago) with at least some of my voluntary private acount back then, if they had let me have one.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:47 | 3265568 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

I think I have also read that the "treasuries" that the SS fund does have are non-marketable special issues, or something like that.  Gee, I wonder what that means!?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:04 | 3265467 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

All the Feds need to do is watch Kalifornia!  

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:24 | 3265670 player333
player333's picture

Exactly this past election was the Kalifornication of the USA

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:11 | 3265482 just_askin
just_askin's picture

Riiiight. 30 years of crony capitalist looting, and now we have an "entitlement problem." You can bet your sweet ass Druckenmiller and the other hedgies who've been paying at a lower tax rate than their housemaids won't be eating catfood when TSHTF.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:12 | 3265483 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

there is no doubt that entitlements are a problem, but it isn't the poor who are the biggest abusers of entitlements -  it is the middle and wealthy classes - the ones who need a  700+ billion usd per year military to conquor the africans, arabs, and anyone else who dares threaten the bush crime syndicate oil supply.....it is entitlement for bankster bailouts to the tune of 23 trillion usd which is an egregious crime against humanity in order to keep incompetent banks afloat......there aren't enough welfare mamas and hos having 7 chilluns each who could begin to approach the welfare and entitlements accorded the plutocrats....and i haven't even touched the neon pink education entitlement elephant in the room.....we all have our grubby snouts in the trough...

druckenmiller can go fuck himself....he concentrates on the petty venal in place of the gargantua and pantagruel.....

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:19 | 3265501 Peter Lemonjello
Peter Lemonjello's picture

It is Not an entitlement problem.  Any politician that tries to cut that should be imprisoned.  We PAY for these benefits.  

WE HAVE A MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    QUIT Stealing our money!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:11 | 3265630 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

If that is what you think, here is the chart we should all be looking at:

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1900_2012USp_13s1li01...

Personally, I don't care where they slow down the rate of growth of government as long as they do it net, for the total of all of the governments in the US.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:16 | 3265646 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Here's another good one:

http://www.usgovernmentrevenue.com/revenue_chart_1900_2012USp_13s1li011l...

Houston, we have a problem.

Is that Atlas I see?

Shrugging that is?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:27 | 3265516 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Beckoned more of a televised confession to me.

 

http://www.muckety.com/Stanley-F-Druckenmiller/141038.muckety

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:29 | 3265522 YouAreBliss
YouAreBliss's picture

These PE and HF guys are incredible - what a load of crap!  They raped and looted this country, screwed over it's middle-class for a few billion in outsourcing profits, bribed a corput govt for a huge miliatary to "protect" their overseas investments... and NOW want to pull the last rug out.  Too bad Obama is as bad as the corupt GOP!

Check this out for how these guys operate:

 

Carlyle Group's profit drops, has investment loss      http://www.marketwatch.com/story/carlyle-groups-profit-drops-has-investment-loss-2013-02-21?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts    
  Revenue fell 9.2% to $755.3 million        Carlyle recorded an investment loss of $2.3 million versus income of $21.8 million a year earlier.      Performance fees dropped 31% to $264.4 million; however, fund-management fees were up 13% to $263.5 million.               BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!          

   Compensation and benefits expenses rose to $376.6 million from $146.2 million. Total expenses rose 56% to $660.2 million.     

  Well paid for a job well done...shareholder/investor suckers!!!
Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:30 | 3265528 ramacers
ramacers's picture

all the better for rivers of blood. gotta happen.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:32 | 3265532 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Druckmiller says we have 4 to 5 years till the SHTF. He blames entitlements as the cause, but he never metioned the trillions we waste in military spending and foreign aid. We need those three-year olds (that his side kick talked about) to grow up healthy, so that they can die fighting in America's stupid wars.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:37 | 3265541 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

On above link, click on Soros Group. Notice MF Global. Proceed to click on MF Global. As I’ve stated before, they can try to hide. Good luck!

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:42 | 3265551 jomama
jomama's picture

i've got less of a problem with millions of low income serfs sucking on a multi-million dollar teet than i do with a select few banksters siphoning off billions from taxpayers unchecked.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:42 | 3265552 billwilson
billwilson's picture

NOT ONE WORD ON THE MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. Wonder why? Cause that is where most of the money was and is wasted.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:51 | 3265740 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

a little more than a fifth of the total spending is where they waste "most" of it?

I kind of doubt that.  I suspect they are much better at "wasting" money than that.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:47 | 3265567 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

SS is a pyramid scheme, just like your 401K.

The day of reckoning is here when generation Z (under 13's) looks at all these schemes and says...

FUCK YOU

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 21:53 | 3265576 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

It's a shame Mr. Druckenmiller neglected the real Entitlement problem, in fact the one that brought us here, and the one that feeds our demise more certainly than anything else -- the Entitlement of the Narcissist in places of influence and control.

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:42 | 3265716 j8h9
j8h9's picture

Agreed. "Crony capitalism and corporate welfare aren't just expenses we cannot afford. They are an anathema to economic growth."...

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:02 | 3265604 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I would say the largest drain on the system is the entitlement system of the banks. Betting and losing, then coming to taxpayers begging for money.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:35 | 3265700 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Maybe I’m too naive, but didn’t the bankers pay back their bailouts with interest, and GM, AIG, fannie, freddy, solendra, et. Al. were the ones who consumed taxpayer’s resources, with little apparent benefit?

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:12 | 3265795 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

yes you are too naive.

when you are in the business of managing risk and you have no risk of failing you can never ever put a price on that. They will never be able to pay the cost of that protection back. They all would be defunct and with no power if it wasnt for a loan of something much more important than money.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:20 | 3265822 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Well, I certainly don't support the govt picking winners and losers either if that is what you mean.

Let's stop that.

But, I know we are humans, and we can maybe only approach these kinds of goals while possibly never reaching them.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:38 | 3265879 Abrick
Abrick's picture

$7 trillion added to the national debt since TARP, no marked increase in the social safety net. You do the math, or just look at the Bloomberg report.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:15 | 3265991 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Regarding the "social safety net" it's the future that matters not the past.

I hope (if not pray) that your apparently unconcerned tone is warranted!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:48 | 3266056 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yes, but the past dictates the future like precedent in legal proceedings...."track record" as mom would say when shooting me down. "IridiumRebel, honey, you have a poor track record of coming home on time so you cannot go play lazer tag with your friends tonight."

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 08:18 | 3266406 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You are too naive as it hasn't been paid back in full  Perhaps you should read up on a TBTF called Citigroup. 

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 23:30 | 3269144 bilejones
bilejones's picture

You seem to be ignorant of the trillions of dolars lent to the banks at a few basis points and immediately used by them to buy treasuries yielding 2-3%.

 

 

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:18 | 3265649 brettd
brettd's picture

Govt only works if people comply with it....

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:25 | 3265675 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

And, if they inforce it.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:27 | 3265679 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

enforce

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 22:20 | 3265655 JR
JR's picture

"We have an entitlement problem." -- Druckemiller

And that's the way the elite put people into boxes and categories so that they can be handled collectively. 

The use of statistics, as in “entitlements “ here by Mr. Druckenmiller, is a phenomenon of socialism. Man reduced to a number is grist for the mills of the central planners.

As well, statistics used by pollsters that include responses from uninformed people are strategic devises in furthering the welfare state. And when people respond that they favor a 20% increase in the minimum wage, not realizing that it would actually damage, for many, their own financial position or buying power, it is highly unethical to use that statistic against those people.

It is one of the hallmarks of socialism, writes Dr. Clarence B. Carson, to use numbers to control people, to force deform rather than to transform man.

 “The thrust of socialism is toward that complete control over men by depriving them of choices by which they might thwart the planners,” says Carson. “The effort to use statistics as a means to control the future pushed us toward reducing individual man to a statistic. Specifically, it manifests itself as the tendency to reduce man to a number.”

Writes Carson:

“The most obvious use of numbers in gradualist countries is in the effort to control the economy of a nation. The numbers that are believed to be relevant to this undertaking are statistics. Ours is the only era and time in all of history in which national statistics have been extensively collected and used. There is a reason for this. Statistics are just about the most inherently uninteresting thing imaginable. They are formed by reducing persons, places, or things to numbers…”

Statistics are faceless. Statistics are collectivism. Statistics are atheism.

The point is, the use of statistics is inhuman. Statistics relegate man to an inanimate object.  Statistics can be used to control people by blocks, to identify people, say, by income and then put them into a category, into an inanimate block, into a box. Then you can harness them by age and put them into several boxes. And once you have them in boxes you can move the boxes around. You’re not interfering with anything human, after all; it’s just boxes. So now, say with health care, you have boxes of certain people that require different kinds of handling and payment,  and people with certain ages are in certain boxes like in Dr. Emanuel’s Reaper Curve boxes, and those with preexisting conditions are in other boxes.  Or, why not faceless red states and blue states that react; it’s not individuals within those states reacting ; it’s the red box.

That’s Marxism, that’s socialism, that’s atheism, that’s Dewey and his system, that’s Upton Sinclair,  that’s I. F.Stone, that’s all those socialists identifying people as figures, as statistics, as widgets to be used.

Writes Carson: “Socialism vitalizes, animates, gives meaning and purpose to statistics. It does this by attributing a magical quality to them. They are to be the means by which economies are to be planned, controlled, and all efforts are to be concerted.

“It would probably be possible to calculate with some precision the extent of the spread of socialism in a country, especially of gradualist socialism, by the degree to which statistics are kept and used.

“In short, the whole is greater than the sum of its human parts …”

Thus, Bernanke, by using and falsifying statistics and making his objective some contrived unemployment statistic, meshes the pain of the individual that he is stripping mining into a faceless number; paints out the man who has given up looking for a job with a statistic; politicizes the student saddled with a $27,000 college loan and no job into a statistical ploy for government stimulus; clandestinely steals an old gentleman’s life savings using a falsified inflation statistic to crush him into a faceless statistic to "benefit" a faceless economy; relegates the homeowner in the throes of losing his home to a chart line; lumps middle-class achievers and individual attainers into an all encompassing 97% of the population statistic, and explains it all with a statistical consumer confidence report…

Thus the individual and his land of individual opportunity and his individual freedom and life time of purpose is nullified,…by a statistic.

No thanks, Mr. Druckenmiller.

Thu, 02/21/2013 - 23:36 | 3265874 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

So, is anyone who uses math or statistics a socialist?

That kind of stuff seams to be somewhat useful to me from time to time, but I will never think of myself as a socialist.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:11 | 3265986 JR
JR's picture

Of course not. A number system is a wondrous thing; the use of numbers in calculation has enabled man to comprehend the universe – the speed of light, the speed of sound, the distance from the earth to the sun, the law of gravity… In short, man’s mastery of things is greatly enhanced by numbers. “Numbers are the touchstone of contemporary man’s control over things for his purposes.”

Carson, instead, is describing how socialism diverts the use of numbers to control people in order to use them for the power ends of government.

Assigning a number to an individual under socialism is a “subtle and symbolic assault on the person.” You know, like in assigning numbers to prisoners.

Alexander Dolgun explained after his duration of torture under Stalin, that for “the prisoners of Dzhezhazgan the number was the prime symbol of our slavery, of our demotion from human being to object.”

In the words of Carson: “Individuality is an obstacle to collectivism.”

On the other hand, a name “is a means of assigning distinctness and individuality… Individuality and ownership are deeply entangled in naming and numbering, spiritually, culturally, and legally.”

Americans as individuals rapidly are being degraded and dehumanized under their current government, branded by Bernanke and his BLS with a number, using that brand like in branding animals as an emblem of ownership and manipulation by the state.

In short, Americans are are being “democratically processed.”

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:21 | 3266013 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

So am I screwed from having a social security number?

I like individuality too.

Frankly, as an engineer, I have spent an absurd amount of my life studying math, so I hope it's not a total waste.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:42 | 3266049 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"So am I screwed from having a social security number?"
"So am I screwed from social security?" Yes. Fixed it for you.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:53 | 3266074 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

That's good!

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 00:54 | 3266075 JR
JR's picture

You’re screwed.

Reducing Americans to a generality began for the first time, you guessed it, in the 1930’s when to have a SS number became a requirement for employment, according to Carson's studies. And, now, all that is left of all the money that you paid into SS is your number. And the purpose of that number is to extend it. Already it has become your Taxpayer Identification number. And, now, the IRS “considers only so much of an individual’s income as his as he can show does not belong to the government.

“It is the assigning of a number that is essential, not Social Security. Social Security is incidental; it is only one of the possible means by which government takes from the individual the control over his affairs.”

Your name belongs to you; your number is the government’s claim on you as it reduces each individual to the lowest common denominator.

For engineers, it’s called the process of “enmassment.”  For ordinary folk, it’s called plain ol’ enslavement.

Fri, 02/22/2013 - 02:57 | 3266132 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

JR, while I agreed with a lot of the basic feel behind your quotes, I have substantial semantic disagreements.

I see the trends as primarily being War to Fraud, (power to information) which were why we went from patriarchal militarism to fascist plutocracy.

The problems behind the "statistics" and the "socialism" are the actual purposes those serve are control through deceits backed by destruction.

We are talking about what is basically a money/murder system, which superficially became more scientifically managed, and technologically amplified, but was still BASICALLY organized lies, operating organized robberies.

The real problems are NOT the superficial ones that you label, JR! "Socialism" without real human ecology is obviously ridiculous! That must be fake "science" without any science about itself! Measurements which deliberately ignore the inherent limits to measurement must be fronts for deceits.

My point is that the central core of human ecology MUST be the death controls, and therefore, the debt controls within the political economy are built around and on top of that. To boil it down results in recognizing the money is backed by murder. Social systems have at their core death controls. "Socialism" has ended up being more sublime expressions of the deceitful ways that those death controls were done! Obviously, the "statistics" in "socialism" end up being totally tangled up expressions of those purposes, which specialize so much in lying about themselves that they reduce their numbers to ciphers of absurdities.

All of civilization was selected by the imperatives of militarism, and the monetary system simply symbolizes that deeper reality. Therefore, "entitlements" are actually about who has the power to rob whom, and how. Those are backed up by who has the power to kill whom, and how.

The astonishing achievements of the most "successful" people operating within those systems are the ways that they develop a language which obscures what they are doing. In my opinion, JR, the language that you quoted is doing the same thing, although in a different way.

The sublime paradox that human beings are truly faced with is built right into the fundamental dilemma of militarism, which was based on triumphs through successful deceits, backed by destruction. The monetary system within any technologically advancing civilization is STILL doing that, only in more convoluted and sophisticated ways!

The only theoretical way through that tangled knot of complex bullshit is to cut through to the ways that the murder systems and death controls operate. However, in order to do that, we would have to go through the sublime paradox that those who were the most successful in the past got that way by being the best at lying about the systems that they were operating within.

Statistics about socialism, and entitlements, etc., are hypercomplicated expressions of fraud and robbery, which turn science into a Bizarro Mirror World, since it all is based on deliberately NOT being any more scientific about itself!

Basically, we ARE doing what must be done, but through the means which express the maximum deceits possible. We are murdering the future, because we have gotten too good at doing what we were selected to be able to do.

Theoretically, we need a different deal with future generations, regarding how there will be death controls imposed upon them. However, in practice, we have the runaway triumph of debt slavery generating numbers which manifest debt insanities, and therefore, we are ACTUALLY headed towards our real death control systems developing themselves towards death insanities.

Militarism has always been the central ideology, and so, at the core of the monetary system. All of these elaborate legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, that we called "entitlements," which are argued about using "socialist statistics" are basically murder systems which operate through the maximum possible dissembling about themselves. The money system is a goofy golf ball of tangled up threads wrapped around and around the military systems, for generation after generation!

The real issue for future generations is what kind of murder system will be operated. That is the real content of the socialized statistical questions regarding possible entitlements, or lack of entitlements.

Future generations are growing up in a world which ALREADY has global electronic fiat money frauds, backed by the threats of atomic weapons. Unless civilization does not survive at all, then the future is going to be even MORE OF THAT!  However, all of that technologically advanced money/murder system is still necessarily doing the same basic things as human beings did back when they were primitive primates. Thus, we have been able to hide from ourselves, while becoming astronomically amplified at being who were always were.

Obviously, looking at those real issues are like looking through an infinite tunnel of deceits. Like looking through a telescope backwards, or like looking through a microscope backwards, without understanding that!  Or like looking in the mirror, without understanding that everything in the mirror is backwards, and distorted.

"Socialism" is a misleading term, since it ought to be have human ecology at its core, but deliberately does not. The statistics regarding entitlements were designed to suit the purposes of professional liars, and immaculate hypocrites.

The grand paradox that postmodernizing humanity faces is that we have awesomely advanced technology, all based on triumphant deceits, which deceits existed for very good reasons, due to the deeper historical realities of military imperatives.

I wish I could propose something better, however, the deeper problems are that all the people who are the most successful within the present systems are necessarily those who are the best at bullshitting about what they are doing, and therefore, never propose any "solutions" which are not just more bullshit, piled even deeper.

It is impossible for the exponential growth during most of human history to continue forever. By definition, the limits to that growth will be death controls. The only sane debate ought to be about how those death controls are done. However, everyone who has achieved the maximum possible previous successes at operating within the current systems did that by being good at lying to everyone, especially including themselves!

We gradually had the force backed frauds of making "money" out of nothing take more and more total control over our civilization, in ways which deliberately ignore the basic laws of nature, EXCEPT for how deceits are able to become triumphant, as legalized lies, backed by legalized violence.

Our current civilization was shaped according to the runaway "success" of the application of the principles of organized crime.  That did NOT break the laws of nature. However, it was based on many people believing things which deliberately ignored the basic laws of nature, as much as possible.

... So, JR, regarding your quote of Carson: “Socialism vitalizes, animates, gives meaning and purpose to statistics. It does this by attributing a magical quality to them. ... "

Privatized fiat money is a religion which magically creates "money" out of nothing, as a triumphant fraud, backed by force. It was simply the triumph of the money/murder system, running away with its own "success."

Everything that is ever calculated inside of that fiat money system is based on bullshit statistics, and, of course, that includes "entitlements." However, IF we return to basic science FACTS, then we must return to WHY mililtarism was the central core ideology throughout history.

The only saner ways to have a social debate about these issues would require addressing the death controls, and the murder systems, which are at the heart of the monetary systems, and all of its currently crazy magical numbers, where statistics serves deceitful "socialism."

To have a genuine socialism would require human ecology be at the core of that concept, which then would understand the REAL HISTORY regarding why patriarchal militarism became fascist plutocracy, and thereby, inhumane abstract numbers gradually took over controlling people's lives.

This sublime paradox runs throughout all of the attempts we make to discuss these issues: ONLY BETTER ORGANIZED CRIMES COULD RESOLVE THE CURRENT PROBLEMS CREATED BY THE PREVIOUS ORGANIZED CRIMES.

... Bizarro Mirror Worlds' Tunnels Of Infinite Deceits ...

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