Citi: "This Is The First European Election In Which Voters Didn't Do The Right Thing"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When a note by a Citi FX strategist begins with the following proclamation endorsing outright fascist despotism, you know it's going to be good: "This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing." Perhaps if Citi would be so kind to overrule the democratic vote, in which 55% or the majority of the people voted against the "right thing",  and impose its own unelected Italian dictator, just like Goldman did in November 2011, that long EURUSD call would be happier? Then it only gets better: "Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry" (sic). True: some things outright money debasement by central banks can't buy - for everything else there are Siberian Gulags. And the absolute punchline: "Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around." Why yes, all Europe needs is a "little growth" obviously in lieu of lots of growth, but frankly it will settle for any growth - something it has been unable to do under the wise tutelage of the banker-dominated oligarchy for the past four years, as for that little "ECB flexibility" - wink wink: just where would you like those Euro Stoxx Steve?

From Citi's Steven Englander:

1) The bad news first. This is the first European election in which voters didn't do the right thing. Instead they gave surprising support to politicians who reject austerity and, in some cases, the euro. This could become a major problem if it proves contagious. The feel-good from the runup in Italian asset markets was not enough to offset the feel-bad from austerity, low growth and unemployment. If all it would take to fix this was an ECB rate cut, they would do so immediately, but euro zone politicians may need to ease fiscal constraints  and find ways to quickly stimulate growth. Elections are more problematic than market scares or sentiment shifts as they can't be undone by printing monry. Still the outcome does not seem so dire that a bit of growth and ECB flexibility could not turn it around.

 

Outcome for the euro - negative in short term and maybe further to go, but considering that euro spent months happily over 1.40 with Berlusconi as PM, this is a set back but not a catastrophe. 

 

2) JPY - collateral damage and position cutting. Its not as if any new JPY information came out in the middle of the Tokyo night when markets went pear-shaped . Yesterday's high to low range in EURJPY touched seven big figures. So there were either weak JPY shorts or EUR longs. The BoJ's mistake in 2009-2012 was letting bad news elsewhere lead to yen appreciation, a double hit. If the new policymaking regime is different, it will be because it will resist JPY appreciation on bad news.

 

Outcome for JPY - temporary JPY plus,  but hard to see the incentive for the Japanese government to do anything but talk yen down and Nikkei up again – USDJPY buying opportunity.

 

3) Monday’s shock helps Fed Chairman Bernanke Tuesday as these developments argue that the world is not a safe place and that a QE buffer against negative economic or financial shocks needs to be maintained. Bernanke will argue for Fed exIt (Fexit?) as soon as possible but not necessarily anytime soon.  Very short term I think this will give markets a boost, but data in following weeks are a risk.

 

Outcome for USD – Fed Chairman will likely try and talk risk appetite back into market, unwinding USD gains. The problem is that once we get past his testimony we may face some weak economic data and renewed concern that fiscal tightening is having a more negative effect than is priced into markets.

 

4) Positions were big drivers and concentrated positions were hit, while positionless but risk-correlated AUD and NZD were almost flat versus Friday. JPY stronger on JPY negative news.  This looks like a positioning and panic induced shift rather than a real risk sell-off. The Italian election is a definite EUR negative but other than with respect to the EUR, the major impact was in markets that were heavily positioned, not where there was bad news. Hence I think that dust will settle slowly in Europe but more quickly elsewhere – GBP, JPY weakness will resume.

* * *

Let's see what else could we add here:

5) If one ignores the 55% of the population that voted against the banker puppets in this election, then Monti and Bersani obviously get 100% of the vote. So you must buy EURUSD

6) Thank you docile little Greeks for doing "the right thing" in 2012

7) Remember "those" European "elections" in the 1920s? They actually were not that bad after all...

* * *

That smell? That's the stench of panicky desperation

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Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:37 | 3275929 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

HeHe,

This NWO thing is like herding cats...Damn Italians.

Can we get the Ethiopians to invade Italy?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:37 | 3275931 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

I am proud to be italian today.
We realize your dreams. V for Revenge

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:41 | 3275940 ArgentoFisico
ArgentoFisico's picture

5 STELLE PRIMO PARTITO D'ITALIA !!!!!!!!!

5 STELLE 8.620.249 voti 25,5%
PD 8.583.704 voti 25,4%
PDL 7.272.698 voti 21,5%

risultati nazionali camera 61.055 sezioni su 61.446

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:05 | 3276023 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Viva Italia!  Putane...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:19 | 3276034 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

Five stars is the first. But bunga bunga and Bersani will joint to do a government and the next time five stars will be at 40%.
We realize your dreams. V for Revenge.
Nothing will be like before.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:31 | 3276094 newengland
newengland's picture

milanitaly,

I pray you stay strong. It is a long treacherous road ahead. Good luck. Best wishes. Well done. Much admiration.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:43 | 3276130 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

Italy is doing the right thing. I hope other Europen people will do the same thing. And the american people ......?
We realize your dreams.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:21 | 3276206 newengland
newengland's picture

Time tells all, dear friend Milan.  Patience and a quick sword is best :-)

Best wishes to you and yours. It is a long treacherous road ahead. Fortune favors the brave, Milan.

Note my name. We did it before, and we will do it again. Your result is encouraging. Onward...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:17 | 3276245 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Forza Italia!  Sadly Americans are brainwashed sheep who watch TV and Hollywood shit.  If you watch it then you support it.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 01:57 | 3276721 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Best wishies Milan. To you and the Italians that are getting it.

From the ZH Global Crew.... we are all watching, preparing and waiting our turn to kick these bastards to hell!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:46 | 3275963 newengland
newengland's picture

Italy, the beautiful. Congratulations. Much admiration.

V for vendetta...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:35 | 3276106 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

Today Italy is the most beautiful of black swans!

What will happen to the Eurocrats when she flaps her wings and flies?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:42 | 3275933 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

LOL!

Citi - bailout whore of the decade (or is it AIG?).

What a canard.

So, if Mussolini were resurrected and promised to impose austerity on the common citizen to ensure that GS and the other vampire banker squid would squeeze every drop of blood from the populace it would be "the right thing"?

We need blood in the streets so badly it isn't funny. 

The blood of the bankers and corrupt politicians needs to flow.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:12 | 3276004 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

+1 for comment EB

+ 1000 for canard.  priceless...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:39 | 3275935 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I smell more fear.  The deodorant isn't working.  The anti persperant isn't working,  perfume isn't working.  The dead horses are lining up in the street because they aren't fit to eat.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:08 | 3276028 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

We're all eating the dead horses apparently.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:40 | 3275938 ArgentoFisico
ArgentoFisico's picture

suspend elections! only problems

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:42 | 3275945 chump666
chump666's picture

Don't worry banks, the masters of illusion just stamped out the correction. Futures green on HFTs and Fed speak.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:42 | 3275947 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Looks like Al-Ciada has a new target.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:50 | 3275977 newengland
newengland's picture

Been done. Operation Gladio.

History rhymes, rather than repeats.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:42 | 3275949 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

i am sure this citi fascist got his talking points from someone in the dupont wing of the rockefeller axis of evil....they were the ones who bankrolled mussolini who met a wonderful fate.....amerika is safe for nazism.....the takeover is laregely complete as evidenced by propaganda apparatchiks like this asswipe from citi.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:43 | 3275950 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

Its all good

its hunga bunga time! till death do they part!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=hunga%20bunga

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:47 | 3275953 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

They reject slavery and debt?  Tough decision!

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:43 | 3275955 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

They will have forgotten all about it by morning and be back to spinning straw into gold. There is no other option. If they show weakness the world will realize it is nothing but straw and likely stuff them with it.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:45 | 3275961 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

Yes, it's contagious, sorry! ENOUGH!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:45 | 3275962 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Those Cititards thought they can buy everything with their stinkin' money.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:46 | 3275964 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

The useless eaters are hungry for bankers. Domino numero uno bitches...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:54 | 3275989 gould's fisker
Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:08 | 3276029 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

What if it was by design, so that you had a trigger you could use if all else would fail in your intended path to centralism?

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:34 | 3276103 gould's fisker
gould's fisker's picture

There's a conspiracy alright, by the kleptocrats in Brussels and other European capitols intent on stealing as much as they can before the house of cards comes down, but as much as I'd like to think that they had more talent than that I think they are just dumb greedy fucks.  But that's just me.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 22:36 | 3276297 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

What evidence suggests is that the plan is to take advantage of this "crisis" to try to push for a desired centralized control of everything, starting with finances, but inevitably including whatever is left of sovereignty, in a downward imploding spiral of centralized fascist  technocracy - it was more of a hint and rhetorical question than anything.

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:21 | 3276912 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Undoubtedly, but we all have different views on that. Its a very live subject! 

see my take on that here : 3276868

Tue, 02/26/2013 - 07:40 | 3276925 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

no discussion about this matter is anywhere complete without taking the military situation in account

in order of connected importance: defense - national debt - national taxation and budget

a common debt means a common army and navy even before a common taxation and budget

it's all about Uncle Sam and the world's response to it

nope - as long as USD reigns supreme the EUR is here to stay, imho

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:57 | 3275991 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

No to Europe will be painfull but the sooner the better.

 

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:55 | 3275996 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Iceland did the right thing. Just sayin bitchez.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:16 | 3276045 newengland
newengland's picture

'Lo there do I see my father, Lo there do I see my mother, my Sisters and my brothers , Lo there do I see the line of my people, back to the beginning. Lo, they do call me, they bid me take my place among them, in the halls of Valhalla, where the brave may live forever.'

The solemn oath sworn before battle. Valhalla awaits the brave. Only belief in something better in this world makes the waiting for death worthwhile. No surrender. Prepare to defend yourself and your loved ones. Valhalla can wait for another day, friend.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:33 | 3276096 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Where are the brothers, sisters, mothers, fathers?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ3Pcvp7tAY

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:41 | 3276122 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I'd love to "Iceland" a central banker...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:55 | 3276000 monad
monad's picture

What? The CFR didn't win? The CFR always wins...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:55 | 3276001 smacker
smacker's picture

 

 

Englander listens to too many blathering lectures from the unelected EU-crat-in-chief Manuel Barreloso and his puppy dog Junkett.

These used asswipes can't wait to dump democracy. Blair is waiting in the wings, champing at the bit to serve up the death knell.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 20:55 | 3276003 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I think I forgot to say "FUCK CITI!".

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:02 | 3276017 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

Not enough, we need 100 million people saying it!

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:15 | 3276047 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Fuck Steven Englander

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:34 | 3276104 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

Milions of italian people alredy said it.
You can do the same next time.
We realize your dream. V for Revenge

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:01 | 3276014 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Not the right thing for Citi, let's just be fair.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:02 | 3276018 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

Celente will be dancin tonight:)

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:04 | 3276021 piliage
piliage's picture

Those damn sheeple aren't following the program eh? Well, this is Europe, don't worry. The French and the Irish didn't vote for the Lisbon treaty either, and the kleptocrats got their way anyway. Cue jackboots and an 'inspirational' Barosso speech in 3...2..1...

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:11 | 3276038 Verum
Verum's picture

One small short covering rally in USDJPY and Englander says it is a 'buying opportunirty'?! I find it amazing that the analysts who understand the political posistioning, central bank policies and intricacies of the functioning of financial markets better than anyone else still have no idea about market structure or trading.  It is my opinion that a lot of these guys don't mean to intentionally give bad advice they just have no idea how to trade.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:12 | 3276041 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

Thank God Steven Englander was NOT a Founding Father. America would have been an autocracy.

Mon, 02/25/2013 - 21:14 | 3276046 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

What is Italian for "silver bitchezzzz"? 

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