Guest Post: Be Careful: Russia Is Back To Stay In The Middle East
Submitted by Felix Imonti of OilPrice.com,
Russia is back. President Vladimir Putin wants the world to acknowledge that Russia remains a global power. He is making his stand in Syria.
The Soviet Union acquired the Tardus Naval Port in Syria in 1971 without any real purpose for it. With their ships welcomed in Algeria, Cuba or Vietnam, Tardus was too insignificant to be developed. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lacked the funds to spend on the base and no reason to invest in it.
The Russian return to the Middle East brought them first to where the Soviet Union had had its closest ties. Libya had been a major buyer of arms and many of the military officers had studied in the Soviet Union. Russia was no longer a global power, but it could be used by the Libyans as a counter force to block domination by the United States and Europeans.
When Gaddafi fell, Tardus became Russia’s only presence in the region. That and the discovery of vast gas deposits just offshore have transformed the once insignificant port into a strategic necessity.
Earlier at the United Nations, Russia had failed to realize that Security Council Resolution 1973 that was to implement a new policy of “responsibility to protect” cloaked a hidden agenda. It was to be turned from a no-fly zone into a free-fire zone for NATO. That strategic blunder of not vetoing the resolution led to the destruction of Gaddafi’s regime and cost Russia construction contracts and its investments in Libyan gas and oil to the tune of 10 billion dollars.
That was one more in a series of humiliating defeats; and something that Putin will not allow to happen again while he is president. Since his time as an officer in the KGB, he has seen the Soviet Empire lose half of its population, a quarter of its land mass, and most of its global influence. He has described the collapse of the Soviet Union as a “geopolitical catastrophe.”
In spite of all of the pressure from Washington and elsewhere to have him persuade Bashar Al-Assad to relinquish power, Putin is staying loyal to the isolated regime. He is calculating that Russia can afford to lose among the Arabs what little prestige that it has remaining and gain a major political and economic advantage in Southern Europe and in the Eastern Mediterranean.
What Russia lost through the anti-Al-Assad alliance was the possibility to control the natural gas market across Europe and the means to shape events on the continent. In July 2011, Iran, Iraq, and Syria agreed to build a gas pipeline from the South Pars gas field in Iran to Lebanon and across the Mediterranean to Europe. The pipeline that would have been managed by Gazprom would have carried 110 million cubic meters of gas. About a quarter of the gas would be consumed by the transit countries, leaving seventy or so million cubic meters to be sold to Europe.
Violence in Iraq and the Syrian civil war has ended any hope that the pipeline will be built, but not all hope is lost. One possibility is for Al-Assad to withdraw to the traditional Aliwite coastal enclave to begin the partitioning of Syria into three or more separate zones, Aliwite, Kurdish, and Sunni. Al-Assad’s grandfather in 1936 had asked the French administrators of the Syrian mandate to create a separate Aliwite territory in order to avoid just this type of ethnic violence.
What the French would not do circumstance may force the grandson to accept as his only choice to survive. His one hundred thousand heavily armed troops would be able to defend the enclave.
The four or five million Aliwites, Christians, and Druze would have agricultural land, water, a deep water port and an international airport. Very importantly, they would have the still undeveloped natural gas offshore fields that extend from Israel, Lebanon, and Cyprus. The Aliwite Republic could be energy self-sufficient and even an exporter. Of course, Russia’s Gazprom in which Putin has a vital interest would get a privileged position in the development of the resource.
In an last effort to bring the nearly two year long civil war to an end, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov urged Syrian president Bashar al-Assad at the end of December to start talks with the Syrian opposition in line with the agreements for a cease fire that was reached in Geneva on 30 June. The Russians have also extended the invitation to the Syrian opposition National Coalition head, Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib. The National Coalition refuses to negotiate with Al-Assad and Al-Assad will not relinquish power voluntarily.
The hardened positions of both sides leaves little hope for a negotiated settlement; and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has made it clear that only by an agreement among the Syrians will Russia accept the removal of Al-Assad. Neither do they see a settlement through a battlefield victory which leaves only a partitioning that will allow the civil war to just wind down as all sides are exhausted.
The Russians are troubled by what they see as a growing trend among the Western Powers to remove disapproved administrations in other sovereign countries and a program to isolate Russia. They saw the U.S involvement in the Ukraine and Georgia. There was the separation of Kosovo from Serbia over Russian objections. There was the extending of NATO to the Baltic States after pledging not to expand the organization to Russia’s frontier.
Again, Russia is seeing Washington’s hand in Syria in the conflict with Iran. The United States is directing military operations in Syria with Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia at a control center in Adana about 60 miles from the Syrian border, which is also home to the American air base in Incirlik. The Program by President Obama to have the CIA acquire heavy weapons at a facility in Benghazi to be sent to Turkey and onward to Syria is the newest challenge that Putin cannot allow to go unanswered. It was the involvement of Ambassador Chris Stevens in the arms trade that may have contributed to his murder; and the Russians are not hesitating to remind the United States and Europeans that their dealings with the various Moslem extremists is a very dangerous game.
The Russians are backing their determination to block another regime change by positioning and manning an advanced air defense system in what is becoming the Middle East casino. Putin is betting that NATO will not risk in Syria the cost that an air operation similar to what was employed over Libya will impose. Just in case Russia’s determination is disregarded and Putin’s bluff is called, Surface to surface Iskander missiles have been positioned along the Jordanian and Turkish frontiers. They are aimed at a base in Jordan operated by the United States to train rebels and at Patriot Missile sites and other military facilities in Turkey.
Putin is certain that he is holding the winning hand in this very high stakes poker game. An offshore naval task force, the presence of Russian air defense forces, an electronic intelligence center in latakia, and the port facilities at Tardus will guarantee the independence of the enclave. As the supplier of sixty percent of Turkey’s natural gas, Moscow does have leverage that Ankara will not be able to ignore; and Ankara well knows that gas is one of Putin’s diplomatic weapons.
When the Turks and U.S see that there is little chance of removing Al-Assad, they will have no option other than to negotiate a settlement with him; and that would involve Russia as the protector and the mediator. That would establish Russia’s revived standing as a Mediterranean power; and Putin could declare confidently that “Russia is back.” After that, the Russians will be free to focus upon their real interests in the region.
And what is Russia’s real interest? Of course, it is oil and gas and the power that control of them can bring.
(20 votes)
- advertisements -
»
- 17442 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:
- Stratfor's Geopolitical Intelligence Guidance For The Week Of February 20, 2011
- Guest Post: Forgotten Treasure: Unconventional Oil In The Middle East
- As Anger Over Russian Syria Veto Mounts, Putin "Briefly" Leaves Europe In The Cold
- Mystery Sponsor Of Weapons And Money To Syrian Mercenary "Rebels" Revealed
- Guest Post: Russia Claims New Arctic Hydrocarbon Finds Effectively Double Nations Reserves
So kinda like a board game? Like Risk?
Except real people get vaporized/maimed.
naw, its more like mafia
" but not many Russians would argue that it is the de facto state religion"
So tell me, do you live in Russia? Do you speak Russian? In fact do you actually know a single Russian living in Russia?
Or did you just pulled that statement fresh out of your own ass?
Well, he was sure forthcoming with his "proof."
Not!
I speak Russian at the advanced level, and been there many times because of my faith, achat.
According to the Russians i know here in the US, at least half of the Russian immigrants here are Jewish, so you will get different answers from American Russians, depending upon who you ask.
None of it matters, though. Its all out there, in English, but i'm not here to hold your hand.
I see it like Raymond does. The Russian Orthodox patriarchy sees Al_Asad's government as the sole protector of Syria's orthodox Christians against Muslim salafists and , by extension, sees it as Putin's and Russia's duty to support him.
BTW, the name of the port is Tartus.
One thing for sure: he is NOT accountable to a gang of Jewish Banksters. Unlike U.S. politicians.
I'm not quite so sure of that...Explain Putin's relationship with Roman Abramovich(this is the guy who parked his yacht in NYC a week or two ago). From Abramovich's Wiki page:
I have yet to be convinced that Putin is not just another political puppet on the world stage.
btw...Granted, Abramovich is not described as a banker, but I'll bet you he has many close Jewish bankster 'friends.'
Also from a 2000 BBC News article:
The majority of those Russian "oligarchs" are Jewish...
This is what happens when you start putting your dick in every ones ass. We need to return isolationist policies. I'm fucking sick of playing world police. FOCUS ON AMERICA.
Yes! Let's liberate Amerika!
Goodl luck with that one.
Russia is drawing a line in the sand, and it has to do with a lot more than just Syria. We know that Syria is one of the few allies of Iran. Syria needs to be taken down to free Israel from any threat during the war against Iran. Lebanon also could be taken apart and Hezbolla eliminated if the Syrian connection is destroyed. This again frees Israel from the very real hezbolla threat during the coming war against Iran.
NATO, Israel and the USA have very much to gain by getting Syria to come over to the NATO side. Even if Syria is torn apart and is a home to Al-Qaeda, NATO sees that as better than an intact and strong Syria allied with Iran and Hezbolla.
Putin also knows Iran is the next target and a NATO controlled Iran helps complete the circle of NATO bases on Russia's borders. The west has made no secret about their biggest aim and that is to bring down the Russian central government and to foment a breakup of Russia into a series of weak states, some of which would become NATO puppets, with perhaps just a rump Russian state formed on the Moscow region. Many Neo-Con writtings detail the strong desire to take the Russian far east away from Moscow and get the USA and Japan into a controlling interest in Siberia.
Putin must draw a line or else the NATO steam roller will soon control Syria, Lebanon and have destroyed Iran while building up NATO air bases and military camps in all these nations. Putin knows they are coming for him after the entire Middle East is subject to NATO control
Putin has EVERY reason to back Assad. And the article is right, Assad may be forced into a rump state made up of non sunni Syrians. But this mini state will be a client of Russia, and I bet the Russian military is doing more than running this air defense network. I bet they are in control of the mobile surface to surface Iskander missiles. These are immune to Patriot and Iron Dome. In minutes they can destroy any target that the Russian operators want. And being mobile, I imagine Israel and NATO do not even know where they are, and if they think they do, they most likely are targeted on decoys. See the Serbian war for an insight into how Russia decoy operations defeated the NATO air war. Serbia's Amry was hardly touched by months of bombing.
Putin and NATO are playing hard ball in Syria. NATO thinks Russia will surrender again as they always have done in the past. I say that this time Putin will shoot down air craft attacking Syria and will launch Iskander against based supporting a ground campaign against Syria. Isreal knows it and so does Turkey. But the USA can sit back and goad it's puppets into taking the risks.
Putin called NATO's bluff in the SOuth Ossetia war. NATO was shocked! NATO will be even more shocked when 1/3 of it's attacking aircraft of the first wave of airstrikes on Syria gets knocked out of the sky and a barrage of Iskander hit the air fields that launched the NATO air strikes. Russia has much to lose if they surrender Syria to NATO. I think Putin will NOT cave in this time. ANd I think NATO knows it. Notice how they have NOT launched air strikes when all kinds of western politicians have cried out for an air war on Syria. An air war on Syria is an air war on Russia, as they man Syria's air defenses.
Russia has a GDP somewhere between the Netherlands and Italy and worse demographics. It has no world class companies ( unless you consider a state monopoly like Gazprom 'world class' and its ground forces could barely defeat Chechen militias. Take away its hydrogen bombs and its not even Brazil.
What is GDP? Finance is an invention to swindle real wealth in exchange for an idea. What is a world class company? How do they benefit anyone?
Russia has natural resources- real wealth.
The US has world class companies which owe allegiance to no sovereign and pay no taxes. Our economy is as useless as Britain's, but our GDP is 3% (2.9999% government induced).
I think you emptied the bases with that. Trot slow.
Everybody has natural resources. US, Canada, Brazil, China, Russia. Natural resources are certainly great compared to fiat assets, but no substitute for the technology and manufacturing skill that turn resources into final trade goods. Now if Germany and Russia get together for a decade, the picture will change.
They tried that once...the hard way.
Didn't work out.
putin knows that if syria falls than iran is next and he would be enveloped if iran falls.
Must be tough seeing the train coming, unable to get off the tracks.
Unless China gets involved...a gold yuan anyone?
Remember their last trade agreement excluded the US and even countried like Japan Austrailia and New Zealand signed up. Continual war is getting Asia and the Pacific worried....
Jack Burton, I agree with almost all of what you say, but the "Iskander missiles in Syria" are a suspect and disputed fact. It is very hard to separate fact from fiction and propaganda, but I have looked at this with all information available to the layman, and I am fairly certain the Iskanders have not been delivered.
Iskanders are vicious and absolute game-changers.
A previously scheduled sale to Syria of Iskanders, MiG-31Es, S-300s and Pantsir-C1 did not take place.
Around December 2012, there was a (planted?) single-source article with no demonstrable evidence in a truly obscure publication stating that Russia had delivered Iskanders to Syria just hours after Patriot missiles arrived in Turkey. This single-source was picked up by the fly by night "news" and pro-Israel organizations (Wurlitzer factory types), then passed along as fact for awhile, before going to the secondary players and the mainstream mouthpieces.
As you surely know, this is commonly used to build critical mass and "credibility" for disinformation, and that is what it seems to be as far as I can tell.
The key players (Russia, Rosoboronexport, et al.) have all openly denied the delivery of the Iskanders. They have not, however, denied selling air defense systems.
I sincerely encourage anyone interested in this to dig in, try go to the absolute true source of that "fact", and marvel at the circular reporting.
It just might lead you to the "mouth of Mossad"...
There have been other, credible reports of S-300 and PantsirC-1 deliveries to Syria. Russia has confirmed that air defense systems have been delivered, and has been very vocal (and absolutely correct) about the "defensive nature of these systems".
And so far, "no fly zones" do not exist over sovereign Syrian skies. They are clear from the heroic and brave NATO Demi-God liberators who obliterate unjust "terrists" humans from way up in the clouds...
--------------------------
Here are some mainstream links to get started for anyone going on a scavenger hunt
Rosoboronexport denying sales of Iskander- http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c32/648596.html
Fly by night, incorrect info site- http://hainanwel.com/en/top-news/2585-iskander.html
Pretty good Pravda article on Syria air defenses- http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/07-01-2013/123392-syria_assa...
Russia defending their anti-air weapons sales- http://www.voanews.com/content/russia_defends_arms_sale_to_syria_blasts_...
Putin is an American patriot.
well if we had someone like him. id still be driving that thing in my avatar, with no concerns. and not on zh
Did you mean Jack Burton's avatar?
being lectured by the Swedes and Russians on fiscal responsibility ...
When will he come liberate this country? I watch and listen to RT (Russia Today) for some hope that we Americans can one day be freed. I'm tired of being ruled by Internationalist Banksters and their corrupt minions in Washington. .
Me too Savyindallas. America is an occupied nation, occupied by international finance and bankers. I listen to RT and oddly enough they offer more real news than all the US cable channels put together. Imagine that!
We Americans need liberation. We should liberate ourselves, but the giant American military and nationa security state will crush any attempt to restore freedom and democracy to this nation. The powerful elites have all the major weapons systems an an Army of government secret police. "!984" is coming true in America.
Negative. The Regime is the Titanic. We are the Ocean, and the Iceberg.
Al Jezerra isn't all that bad either, actually. You only get blunt facts with them, sorta like what Reuters and the Associated Press USED to be.
RT is Russian propoganda for the USA, Al Jizz is US propoganda for the ME!(Like lots of the stories too, grain of salt though)
(p.s. And FB is how the CIA see's "wassup" with you, girl!")
Indeed if you study support of Russian naval fleet during US civil war.
Shame that US and Rusiia (and European) patriots cannot work together. we are the same race, similar culture. Really best of breed.
All what the octopus is doing last 300 years is turnig us each against other (US patriotic war, WW1, WW2, cold war, war on "terror" etc...)
http://vigilantcitizen.com/vigilantreport/the-occult-symbolism-of-the-2012-olympics-opening-and-closing-ceremonies/
Assad is finished. It is merely a matter of time.
At present, Assad and close advisers spend each night on a Russian warship. He is flown to the palace in Damascus each day. This, because he does not trust his security apparatus.
These are easy enough to bring down with the right assets. Soon enough, Assad will assume room temperature and the country will be carved up.
Then again, Isaiah 17 talks about Damascus being reduced to a 'heap of ruin' and ceasing to be a city. Since it is the longest continuously running city on the planet, this has not yet happened.
Just sayin...
Obama is finished. He spends the nights on a Chinese warship and flys back to his white palace during the day. There he works to ship all America's jobs and technology to China before he and all the American 1% 'ers finally fly off to their paradise of free markets "The People's Republic of China". After all, the American elite are perfect examples of Chinese Communists. The Chinese system is what they admire and worship and want to turn America into a model of Chinese communist capitialism.
I long to breath the beautiful air of Bejing
He who controls the Heartland controls the World Island. He who controls the World Island controls the World.
Huh? Was that Confucius? Donald Trump?
W74 +1
Key imperative of our times. All the rest (FED, Dollar, stock market, Gold price etc...) is only secondary to that. Just tools to get that above.
ZHedgers shoul read Brzezinskis...
Google maps tells me there's about 3(three) Walmarts within a twenty mile radius of Moscow.
Question: Is it easier to find 9mm rounds in Moscow than anywhere in America?
I don't know about that but the Russkies still make alot of $ off of the ammo they sell in the US- I mean like hundreds of millions.
Power abhors a vacuum, obama can dismantle and with draw, but Russia or China will move in and take over. The changes will be nearly impossible to reverse.
The useful fool Obama is putty in Putin's hand and Putin knows it regarding missle defense.
Medvedev: "I will transmit this information to Vladimir."
Those words by the former Russian prez must have sounded like some secret coded reconaissance speech to our comrad in chief. Obama got a tingle going down his own leg when Medvedev said the name Vladimir. If Obama has highest admiration for a dirtbag like Alinsky, who had highest admiration for another guy named Vladimir, then it wouldn't be a stretch to believe that Obama has at least some admiration for the "other" Vladimir. I bet that the exchange Obama had with Medvedev brought Obama back to his childhood fantasies of being a secret agent for the "other" dirtbag whose last name was Lenin.
Dear Felix, your article is a repackaging of numerous blog comments on ZH -- my own included. No wonder I like it. I hear and smell the sizzle, but where is the steak?
Profiling aside, the real value of this article that I see, is that it keeps reminding people what the American and Israeli objectives are in regards to the Middle East and Russia itself: A relentless march of the NWO crowd toward victory over Russia and China, by using the USD and its MIC as tools and weapons.
If Assad and Syria falls, it's close to game over for Russia, because then the stakes would have to be raised so much higher in the defense of Iran, and then defense of itself.
/Too bad they don't have their own version of Al-CIA-dah, to stir the global pot and cause real grief for USSA. Abroad and at home. It's a bitch not having a Global Reserve Currency (GRC) to finance global expansion. Guess they'll have to play... "defensive hockey"? Or is it "Chess without the Queen"?/sarc
/Too bad they don't have their own version of Al-CIA-dah, to stir the global pot and cause real grief for USSA. Abroad and at home. It's a bitch not having a Global Reserve Currency (GRC) to finance global expansion. Guess they'll have to play... "defensive hockey"? Or is it "Chess without the Queen"?/sarc
the thing is the Russians dont need the Al-CIA-dah boogie man excuse to make a play, they will just do whatever it is they intend to do, look us straight in the eyes and say " you got a problem with that comrade?" as an example look at how they deal with chechnyian ( however you spell that) rebels. they dont negotiate, try to win the hearts and minds of the people, they shoot them, level their homes and pick up a piece of burning debris off the ground to light thier cigarette with and the same "you got a problem with that comrade?" look is on thier face the whole time.
the Russians arent really in a position where they need to play defensive hockey- they control most of the natural gas that keeps europe warm and powers the factories. they can very effectively hurt us by shutting off the gas flow to europe, because that would cause the EU economy to really crash hard, which would have a domino effect on ours.
like Vladomir Harkonnen said " He who controls the spice controls the universe!" just replace the word "spice" with whatever vital natural resource you please.
Go ahead... keep underestimating Russia's military capabilities... until one or two of these babies blows your supercarrier out of the water.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shkval
Cnn,Fox,Cnbc are Amerika's corp propaganda megaphones for Govt.Inc/Pentagon.
This is news?
(Yawn)
Vlad stroking himself does nothing for me.
Iran has never found the Russians trustworthy and seldom useful. The "Arab Spring", like most Arab movements has an anti Shiite component. Russia's support for Assad alienates and angers the Sunnite regions and puts Moscow in allegiance with mercurial secular leaders in Tehran and bombastic religious leaders in Qom. What was 1st prize?
What is it, Bullshit cold war nostalgia day?
Are we supposed to forget Russia jettisoned Saddam, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan?