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You Rarely Know You're In A Recession Until It's Too Late

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Whether or not you believe it would have made a difference to 'know' or not, the facts are that over the course of US economic history, you rarely know you're in a recession until long after it starts. Would you still chase day after day? Could you stand to watch the greater fools buying in the belief they are not the patsy? The following six facts might put things into perspective...

 

Via ECRI,

1) Think back to 2008, a couple of days before the Lehman failure. Looking at the data in hand, you would see GDP growth at about 1% in Q1 and 3% in Q2. More specifically, Q2 GDP growth had just been revised up on August 28 from 1.9% to 3.3%, sparking a 212-point Dow rally that day. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/business/29econ.html?_r=0

 

2) In March 2001, 95% of economists thought there would not be a recession, but one had already begun.

 

3) No economist predicted the 1990-91 recession beforehand.

 

4) Hardly any economists recognized the severe 1973-75 recession until almost a year after it started. Indeed, that recession began with the ISM at 68.1, and payroll jobs growth did not turn negative for eight months.

 

5) In 1970, unaware that the economy was nine months into recession, none other than Paul Samuelson said that the NBER had worked itself out of a job, meaning that improved policy expertise had made recessions very unlikely.

 

6) In three of the last 15 recessions - specifically, in 1980, 1945, and 1926-27 during the Roaring Twenties - stock prices remained in a cyclical upturn.

 

 

(h/t @GreekFire23)

 

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Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:37 | 3288957 akak
akak's picture

Tu puedes tratarlo en castellano.

Ou dans francais, peut-etre.

Byc moze w Polski?

 

Regardless, you are never going to convince me to deny the manifest evidence of currency depreciation staring me, and you, straight in the face.  That thesis is as laughable and insulting as any of the Keynesian drivel peddled by Paul Krugman.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 15:21 | 3291229 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

I love this: I'm a clueless fuckwit because JimmyTard made a "typo". I guess typo means "I pulled numbers out of my sphincter and they didn't match reality, so I'll go prospecting in my colon again."

Orly: "It's not inflation. It's  a construct, and that construct is artifical and not systemic."

Note to Orly: Constructs can be both artificial and systemic--if the system is artificial to begin with. There is always speculation, and speculation always distorts prices if enough credit is involved. And the central bank--The MOST artificial system ever devised--makes certain that there is never a shortage of credit. See "Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Term ABS Lending Facility, CPIFF, MMMF, plus a dozen others, PLUS constant POMOs.

But the speculation is not the root problem. The root problem is a criminal central bank that has increased money supply FAR faster than the economy has grown for the past 100 years.

Do we have speculation? Yep. Deflation? Yep. Inflation? Yep. The absence of money velocity keeps the money supply in a deflationary bind, even as inflation (the willful expansion of credit) runs out of control. The Fed is trying to control where the new money goes, but they can't do it. They're happy to see new money pushing stock prices to levels that Dallas Dick Fisher just said "are not supported by fundamentals", but they're not as happy to see the same bank/speculators driving up commodities using NEW FED CREDIT. That's how inflation works these days.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:56 | 3289138 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat&months=240

 

What wheat price history are you viewing?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:38 | 3288566 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

It's probably worth mentioning that the increased prices at the stores -- if not everywhere else -- also reflect the increased relative costs of taxation, increased costs of compliance with regulation, and increased costs of litigation.  All these real costs of doing business which are higher under the new normal are passed on to consumers and not "paid" by the companies if they want to stay in business.

If they raise Wal-Mart’s effective tax rate somehow, or make their employee's healthcare insurance costs higher due to the AFFORDABLE care act, or make it easier for tort lawyers to sue when no damages can be proven (purely hypothetically-speaking for all of these, of course); Wal-mart’s customers are the one's who ultimately pay these higher costs, not Wal-Mart or its owners.

I find it hard to find a really clean way of measuring price inflation in general.  I can see why people debate it so much.

 

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:45 | 3288600 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

'Sorry for posting this twice.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:43 | 3288588 akak
akak's picture

Good points NQD.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 21:55 | 3288626 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

As a postscript, doesn’t more government spending as a portion of the economy roughly equal more power for the politicians?

If so, and their power has increased, then doesn’t that imply that they are more corrupt as well?  I have no idea what absolute power is, but doesn’t more power corrupt more than less power does?

I don't much think it would matter much whether it was Dems or Repubs in charge if no one was willing to reduce the spending as a portion of the economy.

 

 

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:10 | 3288657 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Oh yeah, and Wal-mart's employees can also sometimes be required to bear these higher costs . . . if Wal-mart chooses to lay them off.

Who ever supports these kinds of policies must really want to punish the poorer people and increase the wealth and income disparities even more than they might already be. . . or else maybe they have no idea what they are supporting.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:19 | 3288688 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Dont forget diesel in cost structure. How much has that gone up since the magical land of 2008? DOUBLE.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:58 | 3288823 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

July 08---WTI = $147.27   today = $91.73

Whatcha make of that? any magic?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:48 | 3288850 akak
akak's picture

Your attempts to use highly selective, cherry-picked anecdotal data points to make your case only highlight how dishonest and intellectually weak you truly are.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:18 | 3288893 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Chevy Truck

 

1977 New 3/4 Ton 4 by 4 Silverado 7,750.00

2013 New 3/4 Ton 4 by 4 Silverado 43,750.00

 

Whatcha make of that? any magic?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:31 | 3288936 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

1979 US avearge house price $170,000

2012 US average house price $170,000

magic-

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:46 | 3288975 akak
akak's picture

JimmyJames, that is such a brazen, flat-out lie that it leaves me speechless.

The average price of a house in the USA in 1979 was around $60,000, NOWHERE near $170,000:
(refer to the blue line in the graph)

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/

(And of course, that was in 1979 dollars, which were worth more than three times a 2012 dollar.)

I wonder if you lie this casually, and openly, and frequently in real life.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:42 | 3288980 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

No, no, lol.

Correction to the majic.

Median and Average Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States

1979 $62,900 $71,800

2010 $221,800 $272,900

 

http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:57 | 3289020 jimmyjames
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:01 | 3289027 akak
akak's picture

But, but, but, I thought there WAS no inflation?!

I mean, the US Dollar Index is the same today as it was in 1979 --- doesn't that prove that currency depreciation, and price inflation, is all just a "goldbug doomer" lie?

LOL!

 

Tell me, is it very hard to backpeddle like that while dodging reality with your Pinnochio nose?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:06 | 3289036 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

AK--Learn how to interpret a chart--today's price shows "inflation adjusted" from 1979--that there is no increased "price" inflation in house prices-

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:26 | 3289079 akak
akak's picture

Once again, JimmyJames, you are lying through your teeth while completely talking out of your ass.

So now JimmyJames is trying to use inflation-adjusted prices over a 30+ year period to prove ........ wait for it folks ....... that there is no inflation?!  Wow, and I mean WOW!  That one really takes the cake!

This is comedy gold, man, comedy gold!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:29 | 3289090 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

If the inflation adjusted price is the same now as back then-where is the inflation?..i know you can't answer anything straight-

btw...you didn't respond to my Q--at the bottom--

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:35 | 3289103 akak
akak's picture

EVERY ZHer HAS to read this!

 

If the inflation adjusted price is the same now as back then-where is the inflation?..

 

Oh My God ....

 

(This guy can NOT be serious!)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:36 | 3289107 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Can't answer the question--so divert and divert-

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:41 | 3289112 akak
akak's picture

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Do I laugh hysterically here, or cry hysterically?

If that question was not a joke, then it was undoubtedly the single most IDIOTIC thing I have ever read, not only in any comment here on ZeroHedge, but probably anywhere, at any time. 

May God have mercy on your stupid, stupid soul.

And, I'm done.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 11:35 | 3289407 mojine
mojine's picture

You, Jimmy James, are an astounding fuckwit. Inflation adjusted numbers means that it takes 179,000 depreciated 2013 dollars to buy what 60,000 not-as-depreciated dollars bought 30 some-odd years ago. You demolish your own argument. You are probably too stupid to be embarrassed. I mostly read here and seldom comment, but AKAK is right. I've never seen anything stupider in my years of reading these comments. Using "inflation adjusted numbers" to prove there is no inflation! My head is exploding!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:37 | 3291071 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

You missed the point i was making-that nominal and inflation adjusted prices have reverted to the point that there is no spread as there was "prior" to the peak and the crash-the nominal price is the same as today's inflation adjusted price-i can buy the same house today for the same price as i could in 03/04--where does AK's $ collapse fit into that equation-

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 21:56 | 3292335 akak
akak's picture

Give it up man!

For God's sake, have a shred of dignity, and learn how to bow out gracefully when you have been soundly spanked and humilated.

Or shall I taunt you for a second time?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 22:16 | 3292384 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Fire away Ak and while your at it tell everyone house prices are higher today than they were 8 years ago because the dollar is crashing-tell me oil prices are higher--tell me grain prices are higher--show me where the pass through from the producer who gets the same price now as 8 years ago-to retailer is effected by the crashing dollar-that's what this whole thing "was" about--lets see some numbers-or at least "something"

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 00:10 | 3292659 akak
akak's picture

LOL!!!

"Constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".

I am NEVER going to forget that one!  Your boundless idiocy has bestowed on me a comedy gem, an unprecedentedly perfect diamond of flawless stupidity, that will live on in my memory forever. Thank you.

 

PS: Regarding the inflation debate, give it up already.

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 00:13 | 3292689 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

AK--Just answer the questions i asked--leta see something more than words...simple..no?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:37 | 3288958 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Not to mention, in 1979 I bought a used '74 Roadrunner that could pop wheelies and burn the tires off in less than 10 minutes for $800.  It took me 4 months to save the money at a fairly low paying, barely above minimum wage, factory job and paid for it with cash.  What do young people have to do today to buy anything close ... answer: debt

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:55 | 3289016 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Good point. The above Chevy pick up I mention, I was with my father when he purchased that truck new for 7,750.00. I bought the same pick up from my brother 7 years later in perfect condition still for 3,000.00 in High School. I worked night's, weekends and summer's on the ranch, shop and in the construction side running equipment to save for it.

My son, 16, we looked at trucks this last weekend, 06' 3/4 ton 155k miles, fair condition. 14,500.00. Now let's talk fuel, tire, insurance and general maintenance cost for him compared to my day's. Good thing that good ol' dad is still a fair mechanic lol. We have to move cattle, equipment and supplies often with trailers or I would put him in a 2 wheel drive rice rocket for fuel expense. 

It is vurtually impossible for our kid's to enjoy the same life style we had without help or debt as you suggest. 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:40 | 3288968 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

I'm pretty sure I've been trading oil and stock prices for . . . is it, decades?  I sure hope not!

But, energy prices generally trade with the overall strength of the economy as much as anything else in my experience.  Is the price being lower over your window of prices an indication of no inflation, or is it merely an indication of a weaker demand for energy due to a weaker demand for economic activity?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:45 | 3288987 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Or, a glut of WTI in Cushing, OK, because no one will build a pipeline to somewhere?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:53 | 3289009 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Is the price being lower over your window of prices an indication of no inflation, or is it merely an indication of a weaker demand for energy due to a weaker demand for economic activity?

*********

No it has little to do with inflation or deflation-but according to AK-it's about currency depreciation causing higher prices and that is why i use prices from basically any point until now to show that prices are not entirely affected by currency-otherwise we would not be selling commodities at the same $ price as 20 years ago-

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:57 | 3289022 akak
akak's picture

My GOD are you delusional!  AND a bald-faced liar!

What commodities are being sold at the same price today as they were 20 years ago?  And for every one that might be (although I am hard-pressed to think of even one), how many dozens of others are selling at multiples of their price of 20 years ago?

You are so determined to stand by your absurd deflationary thesis that you cannot see the inflated forest for the trees.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:25 | 3289072 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

There is little doubt that commodities overall are up historically. The chart below clearly shows the ballon in early 08', then the free fall. The below chart also dates back to 92' with a wide swath of commodities pricing.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:06 | 3289246 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

@Vendetta

~~~

Same with me [in '79], but instead it was a sweet condition '68 Firebird that I bought off a nice Mex named 'Hector'...

It couldn't pop wheelies, but I ended up poppin a few other things inside... I've probably owned 2 dozen rides in my life [ranging from Olds98's, to Chrysler Imperials, to Dodge Darts, to VW Sciroccos, Jettas, Chooms, & Passats, to 300 class Mercedes, to Volvo Wagons, to Ford Fairlaines, Broncos, Explorers, F-150's, 250's, & 350's, to some European cars you could or could not name from Jaguars, to Porsches, to 'European Market' Hondas & Toyotas, to Fiat 500's...

But my 1966 GTO, & my 1968 Firebird were my all time faves [both were pristine, but stock]... Followed by my 1964 Dodge Dart... [which was a hunk of junk but I loved it]...

At present ~ I'm back to a 1990 F-150 Lariat... [It can handle 2 tons tho ~ & the fucking DHS prolly doesn't kno where I am when I go fishin']...

~~~

68 Firebird looked just like this, color [but it wasn't a convertible]

http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1T4TSNP_enUS476US476&q=1968+pontiac+firebird&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=RVEwUfSIB_K20QGroICgBQ&biw=1920&bih=964&sei=SlEwUf3AGsHo0gGbloD4Cw#imgrc=Zswt7OEOqZYCuM%3A%3BlNW3XzNBkKKBaM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.pontiac-club.com%252Fgraphics%252Fgallery%252Ffull%252F68fb35.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.pontiac-club.com%252Fgallery_detail.php%253Fid%253D82%2526ddlb_year%253D1968%3B687%3B321

Dart looked like this... Just about exactly

http://www.google.com/search?rlz=1T4TSNP_enUS476US476&q=1964+dodge+dart&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=bVIwUdaYOefy0QG0nYBg&biw=1920&bih=964&sei=c1IwUbiWCurQ0wHHuoGIAw#imgrc=nUKU-BNvmo6BWM%3A%3BTFPhzVYf0dwrXM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fimage.motortrend.com%252Ff%252Fclassic%252Ffeatures%252F1203_a_brief_history_of_the_dodge_dart%252F36031555%252F1964-Dodge-Dart-front-three-quarters.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.motortrend.com%252Fclassic%252Ffeatures%252F1203_a_brief_history_of_the_dodge_dart%252Fphoto_08.html%3B1500%3B938

Goat looked like this... [cept it had a black vinyl roof]

http://www.google.com/search?q=1966+pontiac+gto&hl=en&rlz=1T4TSNP_enUS476US476&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=DlMwUZ6qLpDU0gH66oGABA&ved=0CAoQ_AUoAQ&biw=1920&bih=964#imgrc=zaiB2RSsw_uaJM%3A%3BwATHj5OpznNbUM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.valleycollectorcarclub.org%252Fwebdata%252Fmembers%252FSR-66GTO.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.valleycollectorcarclub.org%252Fclubinfo%252Frides.asp%3B640%3B320

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:50 | 3289270 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Gas at the station is $4.09 here. It was about that in 2008 when crude hit 140s.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:03 | 3288842 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

You raise a REALLY good point notq. I'm watching this happen in my own field, behind the scenes cost increases due to litigation and government regs. For example, in Cali a few years back there was a successful lawsuit made by a mother who brought her very ill, multiple medical problem son to a Cali hospital. While he was in the hospital and was being treated for another serious issue he contracted MRSA and died. The lawyers blamed the hospital. Schwarzenegger then passed a law requiring all pts entering the hospital must be screened for MRSA and be cohorted if positive. Unfortunately it takes us microbiologists 48-72 hrs to determine if a person has MRSA which isn't fast enough. We had to move to molecular methods so the cost went from $50 to $500 per person. Every time they move a patient from let say ICU to the medical floors they must repeat the test to prove they hadn't caught MRSA in the hospital, and if they had, they wouldn't contaminate the next area. I often run MRSA on the same pt 3 or 4 times a day as they move around. If it ever turns positive I must call multiple people to get the containment process bureaucracy started which is quite a waste of my time. A few weeks ago i placed an order for our molecular MRSA kits, they cost $87,000 dollars which will last us 6 weeks. 2 years ago the same kits cost $62,000. So when people cry out with statements like" they charged me $400.00 for some fucking dental floss!" I innately understand what's really going on because molecular MRSA screening is not reimbursed by Medicare at this time. Too bad we can just use some chicken breasts to run the assay. ;-)

Miffed:-)

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:24 | 3288914 Orly
Orly's picture

MRSA is easily controlled in a competent hospital setting.  There was no reason for the child to die due to that condition unless there were extreme mitigating circumstances.  If that were the case, the mother would have lost the suit easily.  The fact that she didn't should tell you something.

:D

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:46 | 3288989 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Are you a dr? MRSA is not easily controlled and MANY people die daily from it. It is unusually aggressive form of S. aureus. Only Vanco is effective and sometimes that doesn't save the pt. Vanco itself is toxic and one must be monitored or the dose itself may harm the pt. I've seen patients on heavy dose of Vanco coupled with Linezolid and other antibiotics not make it. If a patient has diabetes the chances of survival are even worse. The ICP nurse showed me the lawsuit papers when we first were implementing the molecular testing. They hadn't clearly proved the boy had even contacted the MRSA in the hospital. He could have had it before he was admitted but because the hospital didnt screen on admission ( no hospital would have at the time) they assumed he got it at the hospital. MRSA is very much now community acquired. We are finding healthy people colonized all the time now and they were never in a hospital. Remember I am talking about colonization not infection. MRSA lives in 3 places on the human body. Nares, axilla and perineum. This is where we look for it but this doesn't mean it was causing infection.

You seem to imply that a jury would see through the problems of the case. I read it and would never have voted for the hospital to be liable.But let's be honest I would have never been allowed on that jury with my knowledge and experience. A jury simply determines who has the best lawyer. At least that's my opinion having been on 4 of them.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:01 | 3289028 Orly
Orly's picture

In fact, it is so unusually agressive that it is methicillin-resistant.

Unless the pt. is immuno-suppressed, as I said- mitigating factors- then, yes, it is fairly easily controlled in an ICU-setting.

And, no, I am not a doctor.  But I play one at Theatre in the Round Summer Theatre.  I don a mustache and become "Dr. Zhivago."

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:44 | 3289122 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

MRSA FYI is not aggressive due to fact it's methicillin resistant. It actually is unusually damaging to tissue as well as being MRSA. It is not easily controlled even with diligence on the part of medical staff, I've seen it spread. Now if you were to compare it to C diff, you'd be correct in terms it being RELATIVELY easier to control. There are no absolutes and outcomes in medicine no matter how much people believe in them. Lawyers have made millions exploiting this fact. Please keep playing the Dr in theater. Fantasy seems to be more your forte than reality.

Miffed;-)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:17 | 3289284 Orly
Orly's picture

Are you a nurse?  Have any clincal experience?

No?

Then why don't you ask a nurse or work on the floor and find out that I am right.

So, when you see me next time, you may apologise for your ignorant remarks.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 07:54 | 3289456 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

That is just sad Orly. I work with nurses all the time and am in constant communication with them as well as infectious disease drs. We go to symposiums together and share concerns pertaining to all of our jobs. I don't pretend to be a trader but you seem to think you can pretend to be a microbiologist. Technically I am a Clinical Laboratory Scientist because I am licensed to work in a clinical laboratory. No, i dont do rounds directly but am involved in clinical decision making. I don't think I will apologise to you soon because nothing you have said has come close to any realm of truth. Neither will I name call or denigrate you in a vicious attack. That also would be pointless and also give you the satisfaction you've gotten under my skin. So let's just say we live in different realities, in separate spheres of existence with no hope of commonality or sharing of views. If that isn't the case then you are a specious troll buzzing like a gnat in the ear of others only to be swatted or ignored.

Miffed:-)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 23:57 | 3292647 Jena
Jena's picture

MRSA is fire, fueled by kerosene -- simply put. And there is hospital-acquired MRSA and community-acquired MRSA, each completely different beasts.

"Competent hospital setting"?  Good luck with that.  Getting hospital staff, including physicians to be compliant with basic handwashing standards is harder than getting people psychotic sheeple to be compliant with their meds.  The average staff member in the average hospital washes their hands less than 50% of the time.  Campaigns to improve that rate are in every hospital in the country.*

If you have to be in the hospital for anything, put a sign above the head of your bed that No One Touches You Without Washing Their Hands.

The fact that the mother didn't lose the suit ought to tell you that there were many mitigating factors that you can't begin to imagine.

(And you betcha, I have clinical experience.)

*Superbug, The Fatal Menace of MRSA

 

 

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 04:46 | 3292999 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Jena, our hospital is unusually compliant with hand washing audits have shown. Physicians were running around 80% which isnt really great but certainly better than average. A collegue of mine was on the committee to improve hand washing of all hospital personal. Do you know what the physicians refused to do? Wash their hands AFTER seeing the patient which we insisted was required. They claimed if they washed their hands when they saw the next pt it should be good enough. We pointed out then they were going to the nursing station and contaminating the computers while charting. They didn't see it as we did.

We don't distinguish ca- MRSA vs ha- MRSA in the lab.That's the job of epidemiologists. We just don't have that type of funding. Generally if a pt comes in with a necretizing wound with no hospital exposure we assume it is CA. If the patient has had hospital history we assume its HA. But I have noted recently we are isolating more and more " mutant" MRSA at our facility. They culture out as MRSA but are melting molecularly at different temperatures. We really aren't sure what this means. Is the mecA region changing? I've seen many pts come in to the hospital with garden variety MSSA only to get MRSA in a few days. Did the mecA region somehow mutate or did the patient get a new MRSA strain that overwhelmed the MSSA ? These mechanisms are poorly understood and are being researched. Quinolone use seems to be related to MRSA which I understand is used heavily in pig and chicken farming. Someone sent me a link the in a region in eastern USA over 70% of pigs were colonized with MRSA. This is crazy. If we want to really conquer MRSA, we as a society must decide to clean up our act, limit antibiotic to appropriate use in people and farm animals and focus on healthier options for people. Hand washing,though effective as a patch, doesn't not address the true solution. MRSA as all super bugs are MAN MADE and, thank god, can be induced to become sensitive again studies have shown.

Miffed;-)

Sat, 03/02/2013 - 15:26 | 3293803 Jena
Jena's picture

The agriculture angle is a quandary in itself.  Again from Superbug: "In 2001, the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientist calculated that 29.5 million pounds of anttibiotics and antimicrobials were given to food animals in the United States each year, six times the 4.5 million pounds that humans swallow, apply to their skin or deploy in antimicrobial soaps."

How do we NOT expect bugs to mutate given that rate of challenge on a regular basis?  We bemoan the overuse of antibiotics for every office visit but it's hard to even get updated and accurate figures that address agricultural use that is easily as much if not a greater threat.

Also, MRSA bounces back from humans to their pets via close contact (who lets their animals lick them on the lips, FFS?), another vector that people don't expect.  Pets are regularly treated nearly as often as their human counterparts with the same antibiotics that we take, therefore causing the same resistance issues.

Above you referenced the necrotizing effect caused by PVL toxin and other factors with particular MRSA genomes.  There aren't many bugs that can kill quite so rapidly and with the ferocity involved, basically eating away the structure of the lungs in just days.

Sensitivity is still at hand for awhile but how long, do you think?  I am not hopeful for the future.

 

BTW, have a great time in Fiji!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:48 | 3288793 Orly
Orly's picture

Using the DXY as a basis for trying to understand price movement in commodities is useless, ak, and has been since 2008.

When the current crisis began, the Federal Reserve Board handed over a half-trillion dollars to European banks because their currencies were locking up and the shortage of dollars was making the global economy go into seizure.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqAEOdv3JjE

This (ostensibly...) prevented the failure of the Great British Pound Sterling and allowed assets valued in Euros to be priced in the market by using US dollars.

Nearly 70% of the Dollar Index (DXY) is valued from the Euro and the Pound Sterling.  Any skew to that true value will obviously skew the DXY.

Flash-forward to today.  The FED is remitting every Friday night billions of dollars to European banks that have branches in the United States and North America.  That money is then used to buy Euros or sell Pounds, whichever the case may be and wherever they want it to go that week.  In other words, as the Euro is manipulated, so manipulated is the DXY and it is clearly not in the favour of the USD, in general.

In other words, the value is not market-determined but skewed.  It is artificial- a concept I cannot seem to make you understand.  One can no better make extrapolations on clearly skewed data than they can predict the price of grain forty years from now.  It is just not possible.

So, jj is correct and, once again, you are way wrong and you should consider these facts before you go on and on about inflation, for, as I have said before, you have never seen inflation.  You wouldn't know inflation if it came up and took all your gold away.

:D

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:03 | 3288832 akak
akak's picture

 

Using the DXY as a basis for trying to understand price movement in commodities is useless, ak, and has been since 2008.

You are both correct and incorrect here, Orly --- the DXY was NEVER a meaningful basis for understanding the price movement in commodities, at ANY time, as again (the fact which you and JJ refuse to acknowledge), IT IS NOT A MEASURE OF THE PURCHASING POWER OF THE US DOLLAR!  It is merely a contrived (and outdated) index comparing the exchange rate of the US dollar against (a handful of) other, more-or-less equally depreciating fiat currencies, as you know even better than I, and was never meant to be anything other than a limited tool of currency daytraders.  As such, it bears no relationship whatsoever to the true, absolute value (purchasing power) of the UD dollar, and never has.

If the DXY did in fact have such a relationship to the purchasing power of the US dollar, then how could it have the SAME value in 1979, when the overall price level in the USA was a third or less of today's, as the DXY has right now?

So, Orly, you do not believe that we are seeing inflation today, is that correct?  So we WERE seeing inflation for 75 years, with prices rising right along the way, but the SAME price trend over the past five years is due to .... what, then?  "Speculators"?  (Uh, yeah, Mr. Nixon!)  "Conspiracies"?  What?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:20 | 3288904 Orly
Orly's picture

DXY is a tool used to simplify the fixing of the prices of commodities, that's all.  As long as DXY remains steady, oil prices remain steady and other commodities as well.

Inflation can bee seen as relative between input costs, which jj has pointed out have remained steady the past five years and wage increases, which have, for all practical purposes, gone down in the past five years.

Therefore, no input-push and no demand (wage...)-pull inflation.

Have you asked yourself why it was necessary to ramp the Euro so strongly on zero fundamentals when the Pound Sterling was dropping through the floor?  Did that happen by accident?  No.  It is carefully contrived so that commodity prices, particularly oil, remain fairly constant.

It has been my contention all along that the Pound failed and the Bank of England was broke during this crisis.  It has been the US Dollar that has saved them, once again, from default.  That's why all the "printing" that goes nowhere.  US money is being held as a proxy for British currency and will for the next twenty years at least.  So look forward to the next twenty years of stable prices.

God Save the Queen.

Again.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:15 | 3288884 nofluer
nofluer's picture

The US Dollar index

I've been seeing that around, and have been wondering what the snot it was. I'm thiinking to myself, "an index is where you measure something... against something else" but what can the dollar be measured against that would provide any meaningful comparison (especially with everyone and their pet dog printing...) Looked it up and it said it was the USD compared to other currencies... and I thought... well, that doesn't tell us anything...

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:30 | 3288935 akak
akak's picture

Nofluer, in your limited readings about the US Dollar Index (DXY), you have already grasped the essence of the situation: it only measures one falling currency (the US dollar) against other simultaneously falling currencies.  As such, it is only a relative, and highly limited, tool.  More importantly, be aware that anyone you see attempting to use it as some kind of measure of the rising or falling value of the US dollar, especially over a period of years or decades, is attemting to deceive you into believing that the US dollar is not 'really' losing the purchasing power that you and I both know that it is.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 03:25 | 3289294 Orly
Orly's picture

Keep spreading it out, ak.

Holy smokes.

The US Dollar is measured against a basket of currencies, most notably the Euro and the Pound Sterling so that it can be used as a benchmark for fixing daily and monthly prices in the commodities markets, especially oil and gold.

"If it all goes to zero, then wot's the deal, yo?"

Man, the disinformation around here is astounding sometimes.  Those kinds of comments are just...just dumb.

:/

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:08 | 3289307 akak
akak's picture

Orly, all of what you just wrote is wide of the mark, and quite beside the point.  But you know that already, don't you?

Your continued subversive, disingenuous and dishonest campaign to convince us to deny the evidence of ongoing currency depreciation staring us straight in the face utterly disgusts me.  Your refusal to acknowledge the fundamental and undeniable validity of what I wrote above --- that the DXY does NOT measure the absolute value (purchasing power) of the US dollar, and that attempts to do so using comparisons of DXY values over a span of years or especially decades are erroneous and meaningless --- once again lets us see just how deluded and/or dishonest you (and JimmyJames) are in discussions over the subject of ongoing and long-term currency depreciation.

I am astonished by your bald audacity in making the flat-out untruthful claims that you continue to make.  I can have no respect whatsoever for anyone who would stoop to the kind of deceptive and evasive rhetoric in which you have chosen to engage in this discussion.

Please stop trying to peddle your pro-Bernanke, pro-Establishment, "no inflation" lies already --- you only mark yourself (to be as charitable as possible here) as a useful idiot  for TPTB by doing so, and just prove yourself to be either that much more of a self-declared fool or else a pro-establishment shill.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:13 | 3289318 Orly
Orly's picture

"Your continued subversive, disingenuous, dishonest campaign to convince us to deny the evidence of ongoing currency depreciation staring us straight in the face utterly disgusts me."

I notice that when you are losing an argument big time is when you whip out the heavy guns of vulgarity.  You can fool your green-arrow followers all you want and talk all sophisticated and stuff but when it is clear you're wrong is when you unleash vulgarity.  So just so you know, minions, next time akak starts cussing is the time he is leading you astray.

 

Okay, let me again try to put it into words even akak can understand.

All currencies are relative.  Relative means that they are compared to one another.  It is basically a zero-sum arrangement, wherein if one currency goes up, the other currency goes down.  Okay, with me so far?  Good.

Now, the DXY is the USD compared to what is called a "basket" of currencies.  That means that instead of just one currency being compared, such as the USDJPY or the GBPUSD, what you have is a bunch of them together.  Some are more important than others and so the currencies are then "weighted" against the dollar.

Now, let's take the leap and "extrapolate," shall we?  There is no possible way that all currencies can go to zero when compared to each other and there is especially no way the USD can go to zero when compared to a basket of currencies.  It simply doesn't make any sense in the world.

So please- and I feel like I am asking nicely- stop spreading around this nonsense.  Just be quiet about it.  It's kind of embarrassng.

:/

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:52 | 3289324 akak
akak's picture

Orly, I used no vulgarity in the above post, and your attempt to claim that I did only further highlights your dishonesty and loss of face in this discussion.

And for your information, I fully understand just what the US Dollar Index (DXY) is, and how it is defined, and more importantly just what it is NOT, which is why I bristle with indignation when I see people such as JimmyJames and yourself attempting to use invalid comparisons of its values over the span of years or even decades in the misleading attempt to claim that the US dollar itself is not in fact continually depreciating in value.  The absolute value (purchasing power) of the US dollar at a given DXY value in one year has NO RELATIONSHIP whatsoever to the purchasing power of the US dollar in another year, even at the exact same DXY value.

Now, as for the rest of your post, you spout such nonsense as to further reveal your cluelessness and/or disingenuousity. To whit:

All currencies are relative.  Relative means that they are compared to one another.  It is basically a zero-sum arrangement, wherein if one currency goes up, the other currency goes down.  Okay, with me so far?  Good.

What nonsense.  No, currencies fundamentally are NOT relative, not outside of the highly narrow currency daytrader's realm.  Currencies do not exist on some mystical teeter-totter, whereby as one goes up the other automatically goes down.  Yes, their exchange rates will function in that manner, but exchange rates are just that --- they are not automatically equivalent to the currencies themselves, nor to the currencies' purchasing power. 

You dishonestly (yes, I will say it, DISHONESTLY) ignore the fact that currencies have ABSOLUTE values, compared to both individual commodities as well as to the wide basket of commodities and services which make up the consumer realm, not to mention, most importantly, as compared against THEMSELVES over time, as they all constantly lose value (purchasing power) with time, all of them being continually depreciated by their issuing governments (there is not a single current or historical exception to this fact).  That latter comparison, of (the loss of) purchasing power over time, is what directly leads to what is commonly called "inflation".  But you refuse, in your stubborn arrogance and dishonesty, to acknowledge that fact.

I think that you are so wrapped-up in your narrow, blinkered little currency daytrader's world that you have become terminally short-sighted (as are most Americans, currency daytraders or not) and have lost sight of the significant facts regarding (fiat) currencies: that they do not just bounce around in value against each other, but they ALL continually fall in REAL value against goods and services in the market.  That is the only point that I have been trying to make in all this debate, an obvious and (I would have thought) inarguable point that you nevertheless refuse to concede.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 05:01 | 3289347 Element
Element's picture

At the risk of butting-in that is indeed the salient point akak, the real-world impact. The 'relative' part is who relatively gets first-use of a new 'buck' through their accounts nearer the apex of the FIRE-Sector trophic-pyramid.

And who relatively gets it after its been transacted multiple times since it's mystical magical 'creation', and is thus most affected by the regressive broad-based depreciation -- loss of purchasing-power of a more depreciated dollar.

It isn't the FIRE Sector that feels that downstream loss of buying power with every subsequent transaction, it's the working noddy at the bottom of the financial tropic pyramid, who gets paid last, and holds 'savings' longer.

 

P.S. Considering a name change to Jacob Moses Rubenbankenstein ... I feel this may improve my immaterial fiat prospects ... sscchhhh! ;-)

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 05:13 | 3289351 akak
akak's picture

Element, while my argument with Orly was in regards to what I claim (and what she denies) is ongoing dollar depreciation, and the (mis)use of the US Dollar Index to attempt to "prove" the absence of such ongoing depreciation, I cannot deny the points you raise as well. 

Yes, the counterfeiter (or his more socially-accepted if less well understood central bankster alternative) will ALWAYS benefit from new (and unjustified) currency creation, at the expense of all those further down the line in the broader economy whose currency holdings have thereby been devalued by the dilution of the total stock of money.  The Fed, and the banking system more generally (well, maybe not quite as much recently), are esssentially only counterfeiters writ large.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:41 | 3288772 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Yeah, but it only works for so long and this is already on borrowed time.

Everything has a shelf life, It's evident we're at the gates of HELL.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:27 | 3287889 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Fucking 'economists', as much use as an ashtray on a motorbike.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:32 | 3287912 maskone909
maskone909's picture

[sampled announcer]
In any country, prison is where society sends it's failures
But in this country, society itself is failing

Ta-dow, how ya like me now I'm in the mix
It's nineteen-eighty-six and I got the fix
with the chicken and a quota, got the bakin soda
Let the water boil, workers all loyal
Dropped out the twelveth cause my wealth is shorter
than a midget on his knees, now I slang ki's
Infest my hood with crack, I'm the mack
+It Take a Nation of Millions to Hold Me Back+
Too big for my britches, and I got bitches
Now I'm hittin switches, niggaz want my riches
Used to get 18, when my G was alive
Now a ki' is 13-5
Eighty-nine's the number, another summer
(Get down!) Police ain't get no dumber
Streets dried up, used to think it would last
But being a kingpin is a thing of the past
They tried to blast me for slangin a boulder
Now I got my ass in Minnesota
Got my own crew, it's on brand new
Damn, what can I do? Oooh

Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now? Fool

[Ice Cube]
Already done stacked me half a meal ticket
Bought a house next to Prince, now I can kick it
Now I got ends, wavin to my friends
Rollin in a Benz, goin to see the Twins
play at the 'dome; police are tappin my mobile phone
I'm almost home
Gettin excited, indicted
Spent a grip and a year tryin to fight it
Lawyer got paid; plea, no contest
cause everything I own, got repossessed
Now take a look at the dust
And I'm happy cause I only got 36 months
I never picked up a book
cause, my arms are 16 inches, nigga look (OOOH)
Can't wait for ninety-two so I can get with my crew
and see, what can I do

Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now?

[Ice Cube]
Fucked up in the pen, now it's ninety-fo'
Back in L.A., and I'm bailin through the do'
Everybody, know I gotta start from scratch
So where the work at, and niggaz smirk at
me sayin ain't nuttin poppin from here to the L.B.
What you tell me?
No it ain't crackin, everybody's jackin for a Coupe
Since, they sent in the troops
Even though I got muscle, that ain't my hustle
Takin a nigga's shit in a tussle
No skills, to pay the bills
Talkin about education to battle inflation
No college degree, just a dumb ass G
(Yeah you fool..) Who me?
I got a baby on the way, damn it's a mess
Have you ever been convicted of a felony? Yes
Took some advice from my Uncle Fester
All dressed up in polyester
Welcome to McDonalds may I please help you?

[Mack 10]
Yeah you can help me punk
Give me all of the money, or I'm dumpin
That's on my momma
Ay homeboy, while you at it
gimme large fries, a strawberry shake
A Big Mac, cause this Mack 10 fo' life

[Ice Cube]
Can I roll wit you? What can I do?
Now I'm on the run, with a gun
and this fool I don't know, pedal to the flo'
Swervin, servin all of the pigs
Just because they tryin to split my wig
I'm in custody, L.A.P.D.
One more felony, strike number three
Twenty-five to life in cell block two
It's true, that's what I gotta do, oooh

Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, what can I do?
Ta-dow, how ya like me now?
Wesssssyde! What can I do, what can I do?
Ice Cube.. what can I do, what can I do?
What can I do, oooh

[sampled announcer]
In any country, prison is where society sends it's failures

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:45 | 3287966 Sweet Pea
Sweet Pea's picture

tl;dr

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 18:32 | 3287915 adr
adr's picture

Uh, real people that don't make their living from some numbers that flash along the bottom of CNBC sure know when there is a recession. Long before the pundits come out exclaiming NOBODY COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING!!!

If you have any brain at all you can see when stocks are overvalued. We now call a recession when stcks drop from their insanely overvalued heights. THAT'S NOT A RECESSION, that's reality.

Of course if you rely on the government statistics to call a recession, you won't ever see one. We have actually had three straight quarters of negative growth including the start of 2013. Q3 somehow had every detractor actually add to GDP, Q4 was complete bullshit being down that .1%, it was really down 4% or more. Q1 2013 has imploded, but they'll pull out all the stops to make sure we squeak by with .3% growth.

We've actually been in a depression since 1989. Only the Wall Street Ponzi and the Fed Express have done their best to hide it. The growth of the 90s was publicly traded bullshit stealing main street private business and closing it down. The 00s was financed through the growth of home values that could never be sustained, a $100k home bought in 2002 was supposed to be worth $1 million by 2012, really? On what planet would that have actually worked with median incomes flat?

All they can do is try to create wealth out of thin air. Wall Street can not be productive because productivity actually takes work and real investment. The parasites could never create billions in net worth without the stock market. Morgan, Rockefeller, and Carnegie weren't billionaires because they were able to pay themselves that money out of the profits their corproations brought in. They were billionaires because the stock market valued the shares of the companies they ran that high. In actuality, just like Gates, Bezos, and the rest today, their fortunes don't actually exist. They exist on paper, made up of the miasma surrounding the most evil institution ever created by man. The stock exchange.

Boom and busts happen because the stock market seeks wealth without labor or value. You can't actally hold something that doesn't exist. Eventually the pursuit will fail. Yet somehow there is the belief that next time that which doesn't exist will appear, shining like a beacon to the non believers. They will then collpase to their knees and worship the god of profit without work, only then will there be everlasting prosperity for all.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:06 | 3288849 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Don't blame the stock exchange for what government fiat "dollars" has done to it.
If the government cheese and fractional reserve currency doesn't enter the stock market, this shit can't happen. When a company is overvalued, the sellers in the market will dump it. But when the market is perverted by ever increasing currency, don't blame the market.

Your example of the house going from 100 to 1m is the result of the same evil.

The evil resides in the stock market, but it is the currency pumped into it that doesn't exist, same as housing and stocks, which creates the ability to pervert these markets. It is also why our wages are higher than most places in the world at the bottom of the pay scale.

Besides that point, I totally agree.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:07 | 3288036 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

"You can't actally hold something that doesn't exist. Eventually the pursuit will fail."

Unfortunatelly it's the case for Gold & Silver right now..  You might not actualy hold it, but those M*** F**kers sure

actually can short what doesn't exist (Paper Gold and Silver Coins and Bars), as you can see on this Paper Metals "burndown"

Crimex f*cking exchange..

How this stupid freak show can continue for so long???

Amazing.. JP Morgan/ G sucks f*ckers.. Keep printing,

Call Benny the Bums and c.o to get discount on 3D printers.. Bunch of D*ckweeds!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:48 | 3288211 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

Economists may be slow on the trigger but ZHers are still whining about green shoots 5 years and 850 SPX pts after the fact.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 19:55 | 3288239 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Who cares if some organization calls it a recession or whatever....arn't we allowed to draw our own conclusions? 

 

For the last 5 years (and with no end in sight) the feds are borrowing about 40 cents of every dollar they spend, and they continue to make promises we can't keep, let corporations set their own accounting policies (helps those PE ratios!), and continues to guarantee the bulk of all new consumer debt (mortgages, student loans, auto loans etc)......................AND WE STILL HAVE SUCH A WEAK ECONOMY nobody can really tell if we may be in a slight recession or a weak recovery.  Hell, with this sort of drunken sailor spending/borrowing we should all be millionaires.

 

How pathetic.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:20 | 3289169 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"arn't we allowed to draw our own conclusions?"

Depends, are you a PhD. economist?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 20:56 | 3288451 Decimus Lunius ...
Decimus Lunius Luvenalis's picture

So you're saying no GDP growth, stagnant wages, falling labor participation rates, high gas prices, poor retail sales, government gridlock, and the fact that millions of youth will not have a chance for meaningful employment for years and years because of older workers working longer translating into delayed home purchases and delayed spawning of new consumers is, in fact, a good sign!  Let the good times roll.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:00 | 3288635 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Create Your Own Recession Charts

http://research.stlouisfed.org/economy/create.html

 

Is it OK to use dolphin gray crayola crayon to timeline our charts?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:25 | 3288715 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

If you look at the DXY today there is one thing that you can see. Over the last month, year, 3 years, all the way  to 5 years you can see that the USD has been on a slight to strong upward trend, meaning: that in relation to the 6 currencies being measure in this basket, the USD in relation to all 6 of these debasing currencies is holding its own or slowly climbing. The Bernank has not been successful at pushing the USD down hard. He would be though, if the other 5 weren't printing. I believe that this printing en masse by all the CBs just means a much more protracted collapse vector.

I'm long on Texas secession. I can dream, can't I?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:55 | 3288811 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Let's see... if the USD is getting stronger, that means that means that things will "cost less", but also that unemployment will rise, so people won't have the money to buy anything because at their old (expected) wage levels the employers couldn't afford to hire them... but with the wage and hour laws, wages will not be allowed to deflate with the currency, which looks to me a lot like "depression - 1930's style" aka deflation. If it's deflation we're havin' then the bubbles are unwinding when we're not looking, and the recovery "is JUST aroound tha koanah...", there'll be a chicken in every pot, and gas and tire rationing when the Great WW IV begins.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:15 | 3288886 akak
akak's picture

The US Dollar is not getting stronger, and has NEVER been getting stronger (not since the early 1930s, anyway).

The US Dollar is NOT the same thing as the US Dollar Index.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:08 | 3288856 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Are there only 6 currencies in this basket?

I thought it used to be 10.  What happened?  Or, did I remember this incorrectly?

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:30 | 3288736 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Physical cash, a basic bank account, and physical gold and silver.

 

If you believe you can do better than that, you are the patsy.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:31 | 3288739 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

It's over

Resistance is futile.

Bug out and create a new reality.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:46 | 3288784 nofluer
nofluer's picture

We know the recession hasn't ended yet because the multiple bubbles haven't been allowed to be unwound yet. No unwind - no reovery. Just Japan-style stagnation.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 22:57 | 3288821 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

The sequence of events is not that hard to determine.  The exact timing is much more challenging to figure out.

Whoever said something like it, the markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent.

It is all made up of little more than human psychology after all, isn't it?

We are not always the most rational people, collectively, are we.

They always seem to be able to kick the can -- postponing and increasing the eventual corrective measures which will be needed -- far longer than anyone might think.

 

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:05 | 3288852 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

And the stock market is not the economy.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:12 | 3288873 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

No, but all the "markets" are the economy.  (Or, at least as best we can measure it, it is.)

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:15 | 3288887 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

What grammar!

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:03 | 3288844 Orly
Orly's picture

Euro about to take another tumble.  Hold on.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:34 | 3288946 Teamtc321
Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:46 | 3288990 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

akak and nofluer:

Reread what I wrote. I didn't say the USD was getting stronger. I said relative to the other currencies it is on an upward trend over a 5 year period. All the currencies are debasing and dropping in purchasing value. I'm just saying the the dollar index is not a way of measuring the strength of the dollar but how it is doing in relation to the others... as they are all falling in purchasing power. I'm also saying that The Bernank has not been able to push the USD down as much as he'd like. The game is over. We just don't know how long it will take before the playing field is cleared and reset for a new game.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:52 | 3289005 akak
akak's picture

Agreed Alfbell --- sorry if I inadvertently contradicted you.

I am just so used to hearing and reading people make the contrary case regarding the DXY (going on in another ZH thread as we speak), and conflating the DXY with the actual US dollar.  I find such arguments both sloppy and misleading, and suspect that such misrepresentation is for the most part purposeful obfuscation.

Thu, 02/28/2013 - 23:53 | 3289011 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I am pretty sure we are already firmly in a Depression. We're just riding Bernanke's runaway train.

Shadowstats data indicate that in real terms: GDP has been negative since 2006, inflation is 9%, and real unemployment is 22%. Classic definition of an economic Depression is a 10% drop in GDP and/or 2 years of bad recession, so we're there already. Been there. And that's despite Ben (and everybody) printing trillions  to prop everything up.

More ingredients usually found in a Depression stew: Social unrest -- check. Massive food lines (food stamps) -- check.  Bank failures -- check. Worldwide impact -- check. Wars looming -- check.  

Problem with helicoptor Bernanke's academic Great Depression thesis/solution is that this time around we have a hollowed out manufacturing base and massive Sovereign debt(s) which was not the case in 1930.

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:44 | 3289205 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

Yes, it's definitely a DEPRESSION!

 

Not only do we have a hollowed out manufacturing base, more critically, we have a country of "hollowed out" people with no morals, no values, and a huge sense of entitlement.  But somehow the same game keeps getting played......

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:36 | 3289254 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Agree ++ 

 

It's trickle down evil and moral relativism. Mask is completely off. When the people at the top running the country are obviously unaccountable criminals and liars why should anyone else follow the rules?  A paraphrase, in plain terms, of a famous quote by former Justice Brandies. It's so true.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:12 | 3289046 ekm
ekm's picture

Here is the rule of thumb to get a recession 100% correct all the time:

 

For any period of 6 MONTHS of longer:

 

- Crude oil at $40 = Growth

 

- Crude oil at $70 = Stall

 

- Crude oil at $90 = Recession

 

If crude oil stays above $90 for longer than 1 year, it's a guranteed depression, since supply lines get broken.

That's where we are now, hence 47 million in food stamps and 50% of population receiving some kinds of gov subsidy. Supply lines are broken due to lack of energy.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:26 | 3289080 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

People can slice and dice it all they want

The whole thing is unsustainable

Food, energy, Jobs, You name it

Get out now and create a self-sustainable lifestyle.

You still got a small window.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:17 | 3289064 alfbell
alfbell's picture

 

 

Shadowstats information is scary as hell. What will the population think of (and do about) Obama, Bernanke, Congress, etc. once they find out that they've all been purposely misleading the electorate and creating a veneer (which is costing us trillions) to cover up and push this insane status quo forward? Will they all get away with it?

Where is John Wilkes Booth when you need him?

BTW here is the link for the DXY that I was talking about. Click on the different charts (1d, 5d, 3m all the way up to 5y) and you'll see that the USD trends upwards in comparison to all the other debasing currencies. The USD is just the best looking house in the ghetto.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:28 | 3289084 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

They will find out, when itis too late

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:29 | 3289089 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

"Where is John Wilkes Booth when you need him?"

***

Are you suggesting that Biden would not be worse?  Scary thought.  I can't even begin to support anything like that -- even if Biden were better.

That's just wrong.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 14:59 | 3291139 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

I have said many times to my friends that a John booth type of "solution" is in the cards.

There just isn't enough white guilt . Can you imagine the guilt of evil whitey if that happened?

Just like LBJ saying he would have "niggers voting democrat for 200 years" (his words not mine).
Taking out d'won seems to fit with the progressives' agenda. Anybody who puts Biden in office will be the face of evil whitey for decades.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:26 | 3289082 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

F.Y.I. - we are in a recession, never came out of the recession, headed for depression.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:30 | 3289092 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Take away Govt spending, we have been in a depression for the past 4 years the next step is oblivion

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:41 | 3289334 Incubus
Incubus's picture

this is the end result of keynesianism.

 

reset is war and death. then it's back to the regularly scheduled fantasy reality of baseless spending.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:42 | 3289117 williambanzai7
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The problem is the so called financial professionals rely on the official data which is imbued with flaws and statistical manipulation, whereas the "fringe red pill crowd" is looking at what is happening out on the street.

In the 2008 all the clues were in front of everyone's noses just as they are now.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:42 | 3289261 fudge
fudge's picture

whereas the "fringe red pill crowd" is looking at what is happening out on the street

On every street on the planet ...  Sadly there not enough red pill takers out here , so many still believe that the troubles are past and that "their" elected officials would never tell a lie.

 

 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:42 | 3289118 Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

In the Bible Joseph predicted seven fat year followed by seven lean years for Egypt. Today, right now, we are in lean years. 

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 00:58 | 3289146 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Me and the family will just snuggle into one of these to save some cash.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2286069/Living-box-The-tiny-coff...

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:27 | 3289183 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

I am of the opinion that government spending is not a legitimate component of any measure of economic production, as government produces nothing; therefore, we did not just go into recession, we have been in a Depression since at least 2007 without ever having emerged from it.

 

Certainly my interpretation matches more closely with the actual experience of real people than what the government claims, no?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 01:37 | 3289195 alfbell
alfbell's picture

icanhasbailout: spot on!

notquantumdum: ok, i wasn't explicit enough. Work out a two for one deal with JWB... draw and quarter Greenspan, Paulson, Rubin, Bernanke and Geithner... roll out the guillotines for 95% of Congress... guillotine for Supreme Court... Dems and Repubs parties wiped off the planet... the Fed abolished... IRS abolished... break off all relations with IMF and IBS...

How am I doing now?

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:39 | 3289260 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Had to drive into the cesspit of Hollywood, CA today. F'n took 2:45 minutes 33 miles roundtrip. If recession is what it takes to get these people out of my way, bring it on. Everything in LA seems to be booming again. Construction going on that will fill the roads with even more fat F'kers. And on top of it its starting to get hot again. 80 degrees tomorrow. Think I'll go joggin at the beach.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 02:42 | 3289262 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

No cheap energy = endless recession

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:34 | 3289332 Element
Element's picture

Hussman's take:

 

The Siren's Song of the Unfinished Half-Cycle

http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130218.htm

Shall We Dance?

http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc130211.htm

 

Whether he's right or wrong at least he always makes an excellent argument and contextual basis for his now prolonged bearish advice.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:39 | 3289333 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Some entertaining comments as 'americans' can produce them. Good catching up between duplicitous people as 'americans' are due to their eternal nature.

To the topic: big hit and run propaganda trick to try to sell the idea that 'americans' are misinformed about what is going.

As usual with 'americans', they weigh in whether it is more profitable to accept a fact or deny it. So far, they've been milking the denying side much more. Absolutely does not mean they are not aware of the fact.

One can affirm that the servants to We The People aka the middle class are fully aware of the consequences of the 'american' policies.

They know where that path leads.

People in power, no matter their stripes, are compelled to deal in reality. 'Americans' in power are compelled, just like the others, to do the same.

After that, it is all a matter of applying solutions. And 'Americans' come with 'american' solutions.

'Americans' know of the economic situation.

And they keep applying 'american' solutions.
One of these is to strive to keep the face, to keep denying.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 04:47 | 3289339 akak
akak's picture

Free Tibet!

Down with Communist 'chinese' shitizenism!

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 05:29 | 3289360 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

AnAnonymous, immersed in praecoxologistic dementia, said:

Some entertaining comments as 'americans' can produce them.

This guys irony which is somehow the pinnacle of hypocritizenism always makes me laugh. AnAnonymous has always provided more than his share of insanitationary entertainment.

Good catching up between duplicitous people as 'americans' are due to their eternal nature.

Very good example here of Chinese citizenism inability to self indict so projecting its duplicity onto scapesgoat of 'americanism'.

Hypocriticality of this Chinese citizenism avenger is big shit and run propaganda trick to try to sell the idea that 'americans' are to blame for his smelly dung hand. Quite crusty.

Lets wait for the next round of AnAnonymoronic entertainment.

Fri, 03/01/2013 - 06:03 | 3289382 smacker
smacker's picture

 

 

Anybody who pays attention to official GDP numbers doesn't really understand simple economics, IMHO. That includes all the political elites, people who call themselves 'economists', and of course all of MSM (except ZH). Let alone the electorates who have no other data to look at except official government stats garbage which is carefully designed to deliberately mislead people.

Quite apart from the fact that many of the components used to measure GDP are ridiculous nonsense (thus if TRUE GDP was measured, it would probably show a negative figure for many decades), governments would have us believe by their bastardized definition of 'recession' that a recession is something that switches on/off, like a light bulb: "two successive quarters of negative growth".

The reality is very different. Every so-called recession is preceded by a period of economic slow-down and every recovery is marked by a slow rise in activity. But the only period analysed is the short period when GDP figures go negative. Yet during these pre- and post- recession periods many people and businesses are affected in just the same way as those during the actual period of negative analysis. The only difference being the numbers of people involved.

This is more important than many people realise. Because since the crash of 2008, every government is desperate to claim economic 'recovery' and they're watching the numbers like hawks so they can start crowing.

In the UK, MSM is overflowing with politically inspired garbage about whether Britain is going into a "triple-dip recession". In absolute reality, the economy fell over long before the actual crash of 2008 and we are now bumping along the bottom. Some quarters show a paltry +0.2% GDP growth, so they think that's alright and others show a -0.2%, and they think that's worrying, So they kick-start debate about whether government has a Plan B. Why is this analysis wrong? Because it causes government, economists and MSM to ignore whether the policies of QE and Zirp et al are having any beneficial effect or just making the problems worse by distorting markets and applying sticky-plasters to an economic system that is utterly broken and corrupt.

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