The Last Time The Dow Was Here...

Tyler Durden's picture

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Son of Loki's picture
"JC Penney could wind up with empty shelves"


NEW YORK — J.C. Penney, which is struggling with big losses and steep sales declines, could face another challenge: empty shelves.

yogibear's picture

Who cares if JCp goes bust. Many more businesses can go bust. As long as we have Bubble Bernanke and the the fed throwing money at it's member banks all is fine.

The Fed is stuck (100% guaranteed) to supply ever-increasing QE monthly to sustain the economy. Just trade as though the fed is stuck until a currency crisis with the US dollar evolves.



Manipuflation's picture

Well, at least gold is getting beat to shit again.  WTF?   I guess it is just fucking impossible to let the tiny PM markets have anything on the nominal overprinting of digitz and that shit is not right.  One has to wonder what makes them so nervous as if it is not obvious.  We are the ones who are correct.  End of story.

Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Number one rule...Don't fight the Fed.

Anyone shorting stocks over the last 12 months because the were worried about the Fed balance sheet got their muther fucking face ripped off.

Don't fight the Fed, you will loose.

Of course, when the music stops and the Fed dies along with our monetary system, you could be a WINNER!!!!!

Vooter's picture

"Don't fight the Fed, you will loose."

Don't fight English, you will LOSE.

combatsnoopy's picture

Nah.  Real ORGANIC non-manipulated trends like demand and FISCAL (vs. monetary policies) overstep the Federal Reserve.
Remember the dot com sector?  that demand was real, I was trading it.  People really wanted QCom at $700 and the volume was really there, even when Greenspan raised the interest rates.

I strongly believe that other things like oil prices, real estate prices, etc. popped the tech bubble.

Reagan's tax cuts did wonders for business investments and job creation.

We could really live without the Federal Reserve.

observer007's picture

Prepare for the Worst: Celente on 2013


ClumsyBoatman's picture

A short list of the achievements that will likely revitalize the United States, and underpin a strong stock market over the next decade:

- Health Care Reform (passed and being implemented).

- Iraq war successfully wound down to a soft landing.

- America on the road to energy independence.

- Fiscally, the US is now close to closing the budget gap to 3% GDP by 2015, followed by eliminating it (if it so wished) by 2020, without a major tax increase or reforms to the tax code --- a stunning achievement.

- Economically, American industry and firms are once again world leaders.

- Militarily, the US military is on the cusp of a rebuild and revolution that will rival the introduction of Naval Aviation and Aircraft.

Not all of this is even priced into the market yet!

IridiumRebel's picture

we are fucked

cash out NOW

Manipuflation's picture

If you want to go in IR just say so as I do not have much on the plate for today.  Pretty interesting headline from the HuffPo.

IridiumRebel's picture

I have a little in, but it's discernable at best. I'm mostly cash and hard assets. I think we will get to 15K and then the trap is set......FLUSH.

Manipuflation's picture

As of 9 months ago, I am 100% in hard assets and out of paper completely.  I doubt I will ever go back into paper.  Nothing against anyone who likes paper trading but it is just not my deal. 

I was mainly referring to the link though IR.  I know it's not popular on ZH to admit you have a HuffPo account.  I do have one and my username is, get this:  Manipuflation. 

I don't log in often there but it would almost appear that someone has put on their "thinking cap" on over there to at least some degree, however low wattage a model it may be.

stiler's picture

Watch therefore: for you know not when the master of the house comes, at evening, or at midnight, or at the cockcrowing or in the morning.

Lest coming suddenly he find you sleeping.

And what I say unto you I say unto all; Watch.

lemarche's picture


Ban KKiller's picture

Listened, buy buy. Nevermind me selling, selling, selling. Jim Cramer is such a shill for...vapor. 

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If I hear that man sell vapor one more time... I'm setting my phaser to Vaporize, and I'll "JC that JC, and have him meet JC"*.  Kirk out.

* Jon Corzine that Jim Cramer and... meet Jesus Christ

ebworthen's picture

Dow Enters All Time High = DEATH

Meat Hammer's picture




Bob Pisani is currently showing a chart titled "Bull Market".  

The first two of the six items on the chart:

1. Fed backstopping economy

2. Economy improving


Now, if I didn't know any better, I would say if #2 were true then there would be no need for #1.  

JJ McApe's picture

dow 20k???

time to go long folx :D

nwcruiser's picture

One last BIG HOORAY!!

Dineroguru's picture

Look at the bright side....we have about the same number of banksters in jail as last time!  Just that kook from Stanford and good old Bernie Madoff.   No Jamie Diamond, Jon Corzine or Lloyd Blankfein.... they are still busy doing God's work!

Dineroguru's picture

Look at the bright side....we have about the same number of banksters in jail as last time!  Just that kook from Stanford and good old Bernie Madoff.   No Jamie Diamond, Jon Corzine or Lloyd Blankfein.... they are still busy doing God's work!

Hard1's picture

Priced in Gold, still very far from the highs!!

yogibear's picture

Bubble Bernanke, Evans, Dudley and Yellen can never exit ever-increasing QE. 

It's need just to sustain the economy now.

Watch the Fed's balance sheet continue to grow. LOL, their trapped unless they default and delete it.


$253.5B—Obama Borrowed Nearly 6x as Much in February


eclectic syncretist's picture

This will end ugly.  Looks like the Fed is just blowing one bubble after another, and this one may end up being the biggest one of all.  Stupid motherfuckers!

gnomon's picture

Printing money on this scale is near God-like in its ability to manipulate.  And its practitioners have to feel like they are snorting cocaine for a living.

But Chaos will smite them down and grind them into the dust.

Shizzmoney's picture

And its practitioners have to feel like they are snorting cocaine for a living.

Well...they ARE snorting cocaine for a living.....

ekm's picture

Th bottle of wine (Dow) is being auctioned right now at $14,265.


The problem is that there is only one bidder: The federal reserve.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I'm waiting for U turning into PU.   Debtor: IR.  Price: Priceless. 

Bidders: il defended folks via Federated Bloggers Inc,  Centrally Integrated Alliance, and Faux Flag Contracts

Kerry on with the Kerry okey.

/heavy sarc +  double entendre


rsnoble's picture

Nothing more than a bunch of goddamn criminals trying to keep a positive backdrop so that they continue operation global gobble which kicked off by the US gov't blowing up the center of NYC on 9-11.

Don't ever let that subject die.  We have more than enough evidence to hang these motherfuckers.

Ludwig Van's picture

No statute of limitation on murder.


vjmali's picture

Shows the extent of wealth inequality. Exactly how it is in 3rd world country.


youngman's picture

And all that money they are printing is going down the same drain...the stock market right now....when it moves to the new thing...that will balloon too...I think that will be PM¨S at some point...this printing is not good...and its going to get faster and faster as Japan has picked up the can and is running with it...and no one likes a cheater....the currency war is on...and its going to get big and mean....

Nehweh Gahnin's picture

"US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion"


At least ONE cohort has figured it out...

bonzo112358's picture

Let's not forget that my insurance premium was half of what it is today as was my deductible.  Just that and higher gas prices alone are pinching the middle class (or what's left of them).  But there is no inflation right?

rsnoble's picture

They'll keep raising prices until we stop paying them.  Then they'll back off just enough so that payments start trickling in again and they will maintain your poverty status.

CaptainSpaulding's picture

The last big market moment i remember was 1999. QCOM was $745 a share and i was jerking off to my E trade web page. I made a mess out of my Dell monitor. Lesson learned....  Never get man juice on your monitor screen

Shizzmoney's picture


The last time the Dow hit a high, in 2007, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank were already collaborating on a global economic bailout, and Bear Stearns collapsed six months later. Before that, the high was in January 2000, only about three months before the market started a long, ugly downward slide in the wake of the tech boom. Go back further, in 1987, when the Dow hit a temporary high before the recession of the late 1980s and early 1990s hit. In 1966, the Dow hit 1,000 and by 1967 the economy began a long downward slide into the stagflation of the 1970s and the recession of the early 1980s.

None of that, however, beats the Dow's high in September 1929, just weeks before the giant crash that ushered in the Great Depression. The Dow cannot defy gravity. The higher it rises, the harder it will fall.

So when the Dow is high, you should smile – briefly. Then duck.

NEOSERF's picture

% of Wealth owned by top 5%: Then 45%, now 55%

Real Average Income: Then $51K, now $47K

yogibear's picture

LOL, the fed is stuck. 

Bernanke and the Fed have to keep increasing QE/month amounts to keep the game going.

The US debt's only buyer through it's member banks.


infocyde's picture

There are no problems.  Only Bloomberg and his infinite money source.

Vooter's picture

Gas prices are near their all-time high, too--where are the celebrations? Oh, wait--people must be off celebrating the all-time highs that were just reached in car prices, farmland and grains. Or, if they live in the NYC area, maybe they're off celebrating the all-time highs that were just hit in bridge and tunnel tolls and subway fares. much all-time-high celebrating to do!

kchrisc's picture

The headline should read, "Economy Down and Falling, Stocks at Record Highs and Rising"

What an Orwellian world we live in.                           hujel

savagegoose's picture

ME  then, 1 oz gold,   now , moar