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Chart Of The Day: Plunging Gasoline Demand vs The "Soaring" Recovery And Record Dow Jones

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Let's try to spin this: "Gas demand is plunging on a soaring economy, a record DJIA and a more resilient consumer"... Hm, no, that didn't work. Let's give it another try: "Surge in sales of flaming paperweights known as Chevy Volts leads to a plunge in gasoline demand." Uh, no. One last try: "Consumers migrate to Flintstonemobiles, gas up what internal combustion engine cars they have with redbull vodka"... Sorry, we suck at this "spin" stuff -  we will leave it to CNBC. They are the real pros.

 


 

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Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:33 | 3308936 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Don't mind me; I'm done. Bye.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:36 | 3308951 walküre
walküre's picture

But you gotta admit that graph is ugly. Peak gasoline demand in 2007 and gradually declining since then. Probably because the GPS Apps on the latest Iphones are that more efficient. You're right.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:44 | 3308983 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Why would not the miles driven number being down about 15% from 2007 ascribe most simply and straightforward to "no job to drive to".  Why is that a more contorted explanation than "higher price affects behavior"?

And btw, population is up 1/2 a decade since then, with electoral vote reapportionment making clear that population is leaving the urbanized northeast for the less urbanized south and west, where driving would be more an imperative.

You are the one fighting Occam's Razor when you try to explain the number as anything other than the poor economy.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:55 | 3309034 schatzi
schatzi's picture

First off, miles driven was never mentioned in the article. It was barrels/day.

 

But to your point: I'm not denying that there's a poor economy for the 99%. I'm simply surprised many make the jump from miles driven to poor economy without taking into regard highest pump prices ever. With a constant $ budget for fuel, you'll need to consume less at higher prices. It is the most simple reason. Napkin calc: Prices have gone up 30% from 07-13, take into account higher efficiency of say 15%, which leaves 15% that needs to be consumed less as miles. That is under the premise of a $ constant fuel budget. Many stay fixated on one element only and completely ignore other aspects. On a macro economic level there are usually many aspects taking influence on such headline numbers.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:02 | 3309057 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

What's difficult to understand is your ability to stick to a single subject.

Your initial claim was about efficiency. Then you shifted the argument to price effects upon consumer behavior.

If you want to exchange ideas, fine. Just stick to a single one, rather than trying to win a debate with dubious tactics (intentional or not) where you discredit opposition to your initial claim by changing the subject.

kthxbye

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:45 | 3309378 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Why do I even bother? I'm sticking to my claim of efficiency. In fact it has a major impact. Maybe less in the US, because their antiquated car industry still sticks in part to fuel guzzling SUV dinosaurs. Other posters brought up the point of miles driven. Fine. Though that is not mentioned once in the article above. But since that point was brought forward, I took note of it and gave a clear explanation why miles driven as such can never give you a clear indicator to an economic cycle, when at the same time fuel prices have gone up by 30%. It's like arguing with a kindergarten here.

Problem with Zero Hedge is sifting through the articles and separating high quality contributions from the polemic agenda driven drivel. Problem with the readers here is, that many are stuck in their narrow world view, incorrigible and in many cases unable to think for themselves, desperate to gain their little green thumbs, never to rock the boat and stick to the conforming programme and ironically in no way different to the consumers of main stream media.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:17 | 3309487 JohnnyBlaze
JohnnyBlaze's picture

Something about giving you a down arrow makes me laugh uncontrollably. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:20 | 3309756 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

way to prove his point dude.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:11 | 3309092 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

I would also suspect that families with 2 or more cars are more mindful of fuel costs and transportation $.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:59 | 3308551 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

that's why we haven't converted to metric, to avoid peak

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:54 | 3308522 AssFire
AssFire's picture

eat a dick.

sorry, couldn't help but say that .

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:55 | 3308533 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Hope srpings eternal, but we can't fill our tanks with it. :(

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:01 | 3308560 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

no, Bob died in 2003

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:04 | 3308576 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Thanks, I was starting to get really cranky. Now not so much.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:13 | 3308614 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

Herpes springs eternal.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:12 | 3309275 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:56 | 3308530 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

A 10% net improvement in ALL vehicles over 4 years, not counting an increased population - uhuh.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:01 | 3308559 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Yep, averaging in plastic cars with net smaller payloads has that deceiving effect..

Now live by that heap of discarded batteries.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:03 | 3309246 css1971
css1971's picture

E10 gas?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:13 | 3309471 Seer
Seer's picture

Now serving, Jevons Paradox for all...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:09 | 3308598 ekm
ekm's picture

This point of view has already been discredited.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:12 | 3308606 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

So what you're saying is that there was some miraculous fuel efficiency technology that went online for all cars, regardless of the car's age, around 2007?  And this just happened to coincidently occur with one of the biggest declines in paper wealth circa 2007.

You are a complete idiot.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:11 | 3309464 Seer
Seer's picture

So, how does "efficiency" work when you cannot afford it?

Economies of scale in reverse- checkmate!  But, keep bleating for TPTB so all the suckers can subsidize their lazy asses with "efficient" shit...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:52 | 3308518 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Looks like the government has filled the SPR and is now unable to create the false demand.

Those pricks still manipulating ammunition prices higher and their cronies keeping PM's lower.

The biggest enemy we have is our own government.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:54 | 3308524 ekm
ekm's picture

Well formulated.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:40 | 3308968 walküre
walküre's picture

Was reading your exchange with another poster on that very topic (re SPR filled) and how it's possible that the next crash and collapse can be engineered when SPR is released. You seem to be pretty sure about that and oil price going quite a bit lower. It would make alot of sense for government and establishment to create the collapse and induce more QE after that. But with oil where it's at, that is difficult to do. Anymore insights on that?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:47 | 3308986 ekm
ekm's picture

Leveraged derivatives on crude oil. It would trigger a lot more leveraged derivatives, panic selling to cover, conterparty collapse.

 

I'd say, same as in 2009, crude oil would stay at $40 for 4-6 months and start going up again.

That's why the economy rebounded, due to low oil price and started contracting due to high oil price.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:28 | 3309143 walküre
walküre's picture

Doesn't that discount the effects of government binge spending combined with ZIRP and massive rounds of QE, bailouts etc? Maybe the oil price moved higher because the monetary policies recreated demand?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:40 | 3309176 ekm
ekm's picture

As you see there is no demand.

Monetary policy created demand from people who got hold of the money, big banks and winning derivative counerparties.

Those people do not consume oil, those people financialize oil, they buy and store it.

 

Hence, supply is removed from the consumption market, for cars, transport, fertizlizers, plastics etc.

 

Two kind of demands:

1) Consumption (good demand)

2) Storage (bad demand, since it removed the supply from the consumption market, hence artificially making oil scarce)

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:57 | 3309230 walküre
walküre's picture

Got it.

Has new supply from shale played a role or is that overrated? Claims the US could be a net exporter of oil by 2020. Seems vastly exaggerated unless our own demand craters more.

Cheaper oil does not equal cheaper gasoline or diesel. We all wish that were the case. Oil guys will cut supply when price falls and their buddies with the refineries will reduce production and keeping prices on distillates high. Profits gotta be made.

What's your time frame for the SPR release?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:08 | 3309264 ekm
ekm's picture

SPR Release  - Iran or ASAP

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:17 | 3309484 Seer
Seer's picture

AND... it's about "affordability."  Economies of scale in reverse will put upward price pressures on oil as production output declines due to less demand (due to the miraculous infestation of "efficiency").  Watch and see when/if EBT starts being accepted for fuel purchases... that'll give my theory more credence (will show desperation).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:30 | 3309812 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

just for clarity, "EBT" cards are bank issued with a debit spending $ feature, and can be used for anything $ related, and of course, track all consumer purchases - they can also be used to withdraw fiat from dispensers so as to minimise the .gov consumer-trackers.

the SNAP/JPM cards are limited to foodstuffs only - the "EBT" bankcards take up where the SNAP cards leave off.

unless those who make up the rules have changed since the last time I researched 'em - which is entirely possible!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:53 | 3308520 ekm
ekm's picture

There is no lack of demand. There is simply lack of supply of cheap oil, hence people can't afford it.

People will consumer oil, but only if it's cheap.

 

That's why I give only weeks to this financial system to collapse, not months, not years.

Oil is the only reliable indicator.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:02 | 3308565 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Weeks? The chart shows a general decline for 5 years after the last financial crisis. This zombie economy just won't die a second time.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:08 | 3308592 ekm
ekm's picture

It's not the economy I'm talking about. It's the financial system.

We'll have a collapse, in weeks, because financialization of crude oil is keeping oil in onshore and offsore tankers, thus starving the economy for energy.

 

Economy is already dead with oil at above $90 for 2 years already.

 

Only oil at $40 revives the real economy.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3308619 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Well, I hope you're right but it seems like wishful thinking to me.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:19 | 3308625 AssFire
AssFire's picture

In a real economy it is said:

For every $10 drop in crude we increase our GDP by about .25 percent.

But I am guessing with the fake economy we could go from $90 to $40 and still

not see an increase. It will take a full collapse and the end of fiat to ever get back to a real economy.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:17 | 3309299 The Grip
The Grip's picture

+1 for bold hypothesis. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:56 | 3309600 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"Only oil at $40 revives the real economy."

Question: When the market crashes in the next few weeks and oil drops down to $40, and the rest of the commodities drop 80% in value, does that mean gold will be down to $250 an ounce and silver at $6?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:04 | 3309657 ekm
ekm's picture

I'd say between 1000 and 1200 for gold.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:12 | 3308605 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

You are correct, but they will start a war to hide the fact that printing money didn't work.  I expect that to start in a couple of weeks, since that, at most, is all the time they have.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:23 | 3308659 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I've been coming to ZH since sometime in 2008.  A lot of doomsayers have been saying "the collapse is coming next week, next month, etc."  It hasn't happened yet.  So unless you have some real, actual proof of what you say, it would be best to just keep your mouth shut on the topic of when. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:26 | 3308681 ekm
ekm's picture

This is the first time I've said such a thing.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:34 | 3308721 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ekm keep preaching it baby. I'd rather read your theories than most others.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:39 | 3308736 ekm
ekm's picture

Agriculture machineries need diesel. Fertilizers cannot be produced without oil. Cars can't move without oil.

 

It can't last any longer. It's been too long already, too, too long.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:51 | 3308775 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's over ekm. If you have to knock down stocks 30-40% plus to knock down oil to the kind of levels you are talking about the sheep won't be able to afford oil at those levels anyway. Pop these bubbles one more time and it's over.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:14 | 3308846 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I don't know. I've got nothing against doomers or doom per se, but this just keeps dragging on. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:33 | 3308850 ekm
ekm's picture

Incorrect, IMO.

Cars and agri machineries will move. That's what matters.

Stocks cannot be eaten.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:03 | 3309243 walküre
walküre's picture

Trucks and agri machines matter alot. Nevermind commuter cars or cars driving to the store.

The truck delivering the goods to the store needs to get filled. The combine to harvest the wheat needs to get filled.

Higher prices due to higher input costs are not priced in yet. The farmers will leave the crop on the fields if they can't afford to fill up the tanks of their machinery.

There haven't been any improvments in the fuel economy of either trucks or machinery. None that would be relevant enough to absorb the price shock.

Its more a DIESEL problem than a gasoline problem. Not even counting the military equipment, ships or trains that run on DIESEL.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:21 | 3309313 ekm
ekm's picture

Exactly what I mean

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:33 | 3309341 walküre
walküre's picture

Why didn't they use the opportunity in the summer of 2012 when Euro and oil were collapsing? Was the re-election of Obama a vital part of the strategy? What else was going on? MFG had already been killed.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:38 | 3309361 ekm
ekm's picture

We may not know until 20 years from now, but I think it has got something to do with:

1) Iran

2) Derivative collapse due to leverage. Nobody wants to take the responsibility until forced by oil price.

 

Global bailout with Fed swaps happened right after MFG in Nov/Dec 2011 because it triggered a lot of derivative threshholds. That's exactly when crude oil took off crazily.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:25 | 3309518 walküre
walküre's picture

"communication officer" of oldest Italian bank jumping to his death (self inflicted or not) may give us a clue about urgency as well.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:26 | 3308905 WarriorClass
WarriorClass's picture

Don't be surprised if Obama provokes a pre-emptive strike by Iran when he visits Israel on the 20th.  He's been bitch-slapping them to get a response.  Now he'll do something more dramatic.  He really needs them to start this war for cover before the economic collapse.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:33 | 3308934 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Either that mid east war needs to start, or the 'homeland war' will be kicked off....DHS isn't being supplied with 2,700 MRAP armored tanks for nothing.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:14 | 3309101 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Olympus Has Fallen ~ March 22nd [in theatres]...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:01 | 3309634 The Heart
The Heart's picture

There is no either or about it. Unfortunately, for the dead asleep at the wheel TV drug nation too poor to drive to the store, both these well planned outcomes are closer to coming to pass than world peace, and the sharing of the abundance available happens.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:38 | 3308957 SMG
SMG's picture

You could be right.   Although you need to mentally prepare yourself for the fact that with printing money, they could drag this fantasy we live in out at least 2-3 more years.   It's coming, it's just the timing that isn't clear for we who live on the outside of the Elite who run everything.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:05 | 3309665 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"...,they could drag this fantasy we live in out at least 2-3 more years."

Not gonna happen. Those chinese and russian and other assorted foreign troops cost to much to feed and house for them to sit around for another year. They have all been told this is a policing action, and that they will be home by Christmas.

"It's coming,"

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:31 | 3308929 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

1 quart of Mobil1 oil now $10. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:49 | 3309006 ekm
ekm's picture

As I said, cars and machineries and fertilizers and plastic industry, and transport trains and trucks need oil.

 

If one tried to load stocks into those things mentioned above, the machineries won't work.

 

It's either or.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:20 | 3309497 Seer
Seer's picture

No, I don't believe that it's this simple.  Yes, price on oil matters, but there's a WHOLE lot more that determines demand, such as whether someone actually NEEDS it, are they commuting any more?  Figure that there's also issues of affordability for all other elements of transportation: insurance, maintenance etc..

Food, Shelter and Water: transportation isn't included here because most of us are born with the means.  All will be squeezed back toward these.  Resistance is futile...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:54 | 3308525 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

want a real ugly chart?  pull up a chart of net imports of energy (oil & products such as gasoline and distillates).  currently at 1995 levels. 58% below the peak from 2007.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3308580 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Hey that looks eerily like the XOM stock chart.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:16 | 3308623 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

this one:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W

have to go back to 5/5/95 to find a lower "net import" of energy into the US.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:22 | 3308886 realtick
realtick's picture

thanks - i've been trying to get FRED to include this data on his site

time to remind him again

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:54 | 3308529 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Yabba dabba doo, bitchez

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:55 | 3308531 Jason T
Jason T's picture

demand all went to China... all your gasoline are belong to us they say.. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:56 | 3308538 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

But CNBC is telling us that the recovery is gaining steam.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/finally-recovery-starting-pick-steam-130527617.html

Steam, not oil or gas, is what we really need to fuel our nation's economy.

Steam.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aphQNGOz7v8

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:40 | 3309567 Seer
Seer's picture

So, all we need to do to "recover" is to tap into CNBC's hot air!  Just sign up on the dotted line for cable and we'll all be connected in one big growth orgy once again!  Cable IS a conduit, yes?  "They" WILL pipe some of that steam our way, yes?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:56 | 3308539 cliffynator
cliffynator's picture

In the mid-2000's, I got annoyed at hearing the expression "snapped up". As in, "investors snapped up shares of...".

Now, the word "soaring" has become the New Normal, nails-on-the-chalkboard.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:11 | 3308601 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

How 'bout "moving forward?"

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:42 | 3309570 Seer
Seer's picture

"We're making 'progress'."  Does wonders for soliciting vast sums of money and getting people to sign up to die for (war)!  Need to expand it's scope!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:21 | 3308648 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

Hey maybe we can drop the "recovery" meme now too, given the new 'record'.   Maybe we can transition to.... "transitional".  I recommend "the clusterfuck disconnect" though as my personal favorite.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:28 | 3309147 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I've heard "surge"  a few times in the past few days (cringe) and then we've added "smashed" as in record highs.  All approved terms designed to get the muppets Greatly Rotating.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:45 | 3309583 Seer
Seer's picture

I  knew it was getting really bad when my wife asked me why the DOW was so high.  I just told her it was due to insanity (no basis in reality); pretty much all she needed to hear (she trusts me to know what's going on).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:11 | 3309276 walküre
walküre's picture

how do you like 'dem green sharts?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:59 | 3308540 Rainman
Rainman's picture

This is why old refinery piping needs to be busted with a sledgehammer every 2 weeks. Adjust supply to demand and prop the price.....since the days of JD Rockefeller.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:20 | 3308878 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you simply make shit up for your own self gratification?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:47 | 3309587 Seer
Seer's picture

You forgot the "</sarc>."

Entropy is the leading reason for the busted pipes.  This is really a by-product of economies-of-scale-in-reverse, where reduced volume starts to kill margins (under-utilization of plant and equipment).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:57 | 3308542 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

if they'd just legalize wedlock

we'd could all have a gay old time

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:57 | 3308543 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

By the time we get back to 'horse & buggy', we'll have eaten all the horses... Just like the ethanol conundrum... 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:38 | 3309359 walküre
walküre's picture

Not quite. I'd eat any other livestock first before shooting my horses. Gestation in rabbits is only 30 days. Gestation in sheep is about 5 months. Market ready at 6 months. There are two types of horse owners. The farmers who have other resources or the new money, old money or no money self proclaimed horse royalty who would eat their own kids before eating their horses.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 15:57 | 3309611 Seer
Seer's picture

Very few horses I don't view as "home-wreckers."  Most are intense drains, often leading to Mrs. "I want a pony" divorcing from Mr. "We can no longer afford the ponies."

I see lots of horses now being given away.  I'd mentioned it several months ago, someone near me selling a USED horse trailer for $65,000.  Who the fuck has disposable income for something like this?

Had a local hay barn close recently.  Kind of a shame, as I used to get straw from them.  The rich horse people were helping keep it afloat.  As much as I dislike this waste of resources by all these horses I KNOW that it all helped subsidize lower feed costs for me.  I plan according to what WILL BE, not what I WANT it to be...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 10:59 | 3308546 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

[ Flaming Paperweights] (lmao) That was a good one Tyler.+1

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3308553 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

Falling gas demand is most likely due to increases in the average MPG of cars, no?

But, I can't help also thinking many people are buying less because they are becoming increasingly poor, in large part due to globalization.  As a result, America is degenerating toward third-world nation status, imo.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:01 | 3308562 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Every drop we save, the Chinese will consume, and more.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:09 | 3308593 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's almost as if, 300 million people, living on a planet of 7+ billion who now, seventy years later, all consume the stuff, can't control the stuff. No matter what toys they shake

never saw that comin 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:03 | 3309648 Seer
Seer's picture

"never saw that comin"

Do Junkies ever?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:22 | 3309768 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Question: if you were a totalitarian govt that the bankster empire built up to be the next world power and money engine, and through your enemies traitorous members of govt that helped your totalitarian govt get a foot hold in the country you wanted to conquer by using the well planned martial law as cover for the planned economic collapse under the umbrella of calling in these UN forces to quell those seditious armed Americans, but knowing after this was done, your totalitarian country with the help of this marxist/socialist/communist forces in the american govt took over the whole country when it was weak and divided up so well, what would the babylonian UN chinese/russian forces do with New York after wiping out Washington DC?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3308588 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Increased MPG and teleworking may account for some of this but we went from steady increases to steady decreases with a growing population. This chart apparently isn't high on the list of numbers to skew. This is flat out horrible.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:12 | 3308607 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

No.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3308627 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Falling gas demand is most likely due to increases in the average MPG of cars, no?"

No.  You're looking at a little slice of the overall picture.  Increased efficiency and all, it's just a crapload more expensive to fuel and drive a car (or a truck, or a bus, etc.) than it was just a few short years ago.  And incomes are still flat, as they have been since half of forever. 

Raise the price of something without incomes keeping pace and you get falling demand for that something.

It's one of the things that slowly erodes a population's standard of living (healthcare, food, etc. being the other usual suspects).  Chew up a bunch of income paying for necessities and eventually you have little left for discretionary purchases.  Ta Da!  Welcome to the 3rd World, but with iPads.  Population:  all of us.

I'm just glad my kids will never know what prosperity looked like so they won't miss it when it's gone.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:14 | 3309100 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Yep.  Cars are money pits: payments, insurance, repair, maintenance, gas, speeding tickets, registration, etc.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:08 | 3309684 Seer
Seer's picture

That's why they should be viewed more as tools than toys.  Tools help you do something more efficiently/economically.

I was looking in to brining in goats to clear some land vs. continuing to run my tractor.  No matter how I looked at it the tractor wins (fuel and maintenance for tractor vs. fencing and care for the goats), for NOW (and I need to get stuff done sooner rather than later).  Long-term, though, it'll be goats... (if not for me, then for someone else)

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:40 | 3309365 walküre
walküre's picture

Yup. The Volt and better Iphone Apps. That's the ticket.

Nvmd the spike in the 2011/2012 arena. What happened?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:00 | 3308555 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Tyler, here's one for you:

"Gas demand plunges on the benevolent actions of a record number of patriotic Americans dumping their dirty internal combustion engine vehicles and  turning green as urged by Obama and The Enviromental Movement, turning to carpooling, busing, light-rail, and other alternative modes of transportation, for the good of planet earth"

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:03 | 3308569 toady
toady's picture

'As more consumers lose jobs and become part time, minimum wage, the gas that they purchased to visit grandma across town becomes too much of a luxury.

Strictly back-and-forth to work bitches

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:25 | 3308669 Critical Path
Critical Path's picture

Does that leave enough money to buy Kentucky Derby meatballs and shit cake though?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3308744 toady
toady's picture

Beans & rice.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:00 | 3308774 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Our situation entirely.  Re-prioritizing away from discretionary travel.  Half a tank weekend trip to museums and galleries has been replaced by a couple of LED light bulbs and a weekend sprouting seeds / setting up aquaponics beds.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3308581 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Consumers are driving less and walking more because Michelle Obama has inspired them to lead healthier lives.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:12 | 3308608 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Thanks Mercury,  I was a quart low on sarcasm this morning;)

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:21 | 3308646 Mercury
Mercury's picture

More people are staying home because the government now delivers lunch?

 

Actually it would be interesting to know the average MPG of every car behind a valid license plate in the country in 2005 vs. 2013. If the first number is lower that might explain at least part of the drop but even that probably comes at the expense of consumers sacrificing more $ to their newer, more expensive vehicles.

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:13 | 3309712 Seer
Seer's picture

Further, there's the issue of embodied energy.  New stuff requires energy.  I'm getting by with 20+ year-old vehicles, their embodied energy is being fully utilized/depreciated!  Also keep in mind future costs of replacement parts (most only made available today because of efficiencies in volume production).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:05 | 3308583 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

demand for gas, down
supply of gas moderating
demand for dollars down
supply of dollars EXPLODING 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:14 | 3309720 Seer
Seer's picture

Simple math equations are pretty powerful in describing things!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:06 | 3308585 Racer
Racer's picture

At £1.40/Litre I try to drive as little as possible

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:30 | 3308677 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

I gave up trying to play the materialistic motoring oneupmanship game some time ago.  I bought an old Peugeot with an XUD Diesel engine for next to nothing:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSA_XUD

This engine was originally designed to run on bio-oil or diesel.  As a consequence, the oil goes through a heater before getting sprayed into the cylinder and if you find one that uses a Bosch pump instead of a Lucas pump (the seals rot), you can stick straight veggie oil through it without a care in the world, you just need to switch the fuel filter at around 5000mi on oil.  Yes, the car is old and not very 'flashy', but I couldn't give a shit about anyone else's opinion - why should I spend my cash trying to impress dickheads, and what is the point in buying a fast car when you legally can't do more than 70mph? 

It also means I don't care if I crash it, scratch it, dent it etc, and parts are dirt cheap.  But most importantly, I can buy rape oil at the cash and carry in 20L drums for about £1 per litre or less.  Thanks to a change in EU regs, you now don't have to pay duty on bio fuel up to 1000L use a year.  If I run out of fuel, I don't need to find a filling station, just a supermarket.

If the SHTF I'm going to be one of the only people on the road too, I've prepped a stash of veggie oil just incase. 

 

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:45 | 3308757 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I learned to drive in a 1979 Peugeot diesel wagon - in the US! My parents were weird.

My younger brother and I timed it from 0-60 at over 25 seconds. I used to drive it in Seattle freeway traffic which was a little scary.

I loved that car.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:06 | 3309063 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I have a hard time believing that your parents were weird

mine told too many jokes

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:10 | 3309086 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"the car is old and not very 'flashy'

so is our economy

"It also means I don't care if I crash it, scratch it, dent it etc"

so do our senators

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:28 | 3309798 Seer
Seer's picture

Careful about bio-fuels and fuel lines.  I had to replace the fuel return line on my old IDI diesel and opted to spend a few more bucks on cap o-rings and lines that were spec'd to be compatible with such fuels: any of this can be found through McMaster-Carr.

One of the reasons I went with my truck is that it gives me options (dual tanks- veggie oil is also an option, though this can really gum stuff up).  I don't, however, foresee needing to resort to anything other than straight diesel for some time since I don't use it that much (if it were a daily driver [not that I'd do so] it would be different).

I'd be careful feeling all smug about being one of only a handful of people driving around: you might look like a 1%-er.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:50 | 3309922 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Cheers for the heads up on the fuel line, will check it out.

The old girl doesn't get washed so much so I should be ok, I like to think of the dirt as 'dynamic camouflage'. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3308587 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Demand is falling because there is less work in the US, less money flowing from business activity as a result, and therefore less reason to drive relative to the peak. Not hybrids, not fuel efficiency. Simply a drop in demand due to the economy.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:18 | 3308631 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Unless fuel efficency can account for the change (it can't), this is the only logical explanation I've seen. It's really hard to spin this little nugget, so you never see it in all the old familiar places.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:20 | 3308874 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

I don't buy the efficiency argument either. If I have $100 to spend on gas, and my car becomes more efficient, most people will drive MORE, leaving the budget about where it is. This would explain one part of the drop - i.e. mental accounting - and the other is just less disposable income from a depressed economy.

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:31 | 3308928 Spastica Rex
Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:45 | 3308756 tsuki
tsuki's picture

The voice of reason.  Hmmmm, you may be outta place. 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:29 | 3309806 Seer
Seer's picture

Amongst the status quo, but not here on ZH :-)

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:07 | 3308590 wagthetails
Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3308626 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What happened Sep-Oct of 2011?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:38 | 3308733 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

interesting, isn't it.  or maybe cash for clunkers paid off after all?! 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:01 | 3309624 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

What happened Sep-Oct of 2011?

.gov stopped paying retail?

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:24 | 3308894 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Very nice, do you understand what it actually is?

Hint: convert the units of gallons per day into barrels and compare it total US petroleum usage....

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:30 | 3308922 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Here we are again.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:56 | 3309222 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

click on the 10-year seasonal "chart tools" and look at the 2012 blue line versus all the others...  http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_distillate.html

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:40 | 3309864 Seer
Seer's picture

Holy shit!

Price for home heating oil has quadrupled since 1999!

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPD2F_PRS_NU...

I'm feeling better about buying that wood stove, oh yeah, and property that contains timber, and, a southern-facing (more distant from the equator) home (passive solar).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:49 | 3309392 walküre
walküre's picture

avg gas prices going UP exponentially.

cannot - allow - declining - profits

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:42 | 3309874 Seer
Seer's picture

Might be lots of pressure on margins.  As I've been warning, economies of scale in reverse are going to make things ugly.  Scaling back will mean upward pressures on prices- self-reinforcing downward spiral!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:13 | 3308612 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

According to Max kaisers prediction of a bond collapse around the end of march and the beginning of April EKM maybe be spot on. And dont forget the timeline being set for the ATTACK on Iran falls within that time period. "Buckle up"

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:25 | 3308670 aerojet
aerojet's picture

But he said the same damn thing last year and the year before that.  Prophets of Doom, get your fucking year right! You can't be credible by predicting the end of the world every day.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:36 | 3308949 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Take your head out of your ass and look at what is actually happening. If you think this B.S is sustainable then you really are a retarded drone. Go back to the collective

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 13:57 | 3309218 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Gotta support aerojet here. I have reading about imminent attacks on Iran for the past 5 years. Every time there is a new moon or an aircraft carrier rotation to the Persian Gulf or whatever, the Tom Clancy-esque imminent war predictions come out of the woodwork. But then, the appointed day comes and goes and nothing happens.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:52 | 3309932 Seer
Seer's picture

BUT... better to prepare than to wait for the signal.

I have ZERO control over any of this.  The ONLY thing that I can DO is to reduce my dependency on things that can be subject to such shocks.

I don't believe in playing time-keeper on any of this (even though I can "see" what's coming).  Better use of time is spent becoming what you want (hopefully, if you're sane, it's based on a more sustainable stance).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:41 | 3308745 Legolas
Legolas's picture

Way cool,  322 falls on a Friday this year too !  So many different ways to create mayhem, the possibilities are endless.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 12:04 | 3308815 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

The skull and bones illuminati stuff is a bit tinfoil hat, but I'm sure as hell going to be all closed out before then.  Didn't realise it fell on a Friday, good call.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 14:45 | 3309376 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Ugh, you made me look at a calendar and now I realize my February 'boat ballast' shipment is overdue by about 5 days. Never had GC run late before. Now I'm worried...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:54 | 3309945 Seer
Seer's picture

As someone with nautical experience I can state that time is a whole different matter out on the water than what it is on the land...  Tip: always make sure your keel bolts are tight and you steer clear of rocks!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:30 | 3309810 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Oh shirt!

You just hit the nail on the head!

Baton down the hatched mates...could be some stormy seas ahead!

March 21-22-23.

Dates to be concerned about indeed.

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 17:11 | 3310016 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

new moon at 22dg pisces on Monday 3.11. - and mars (god of war) moves into its rulership, Aries, late/overnight.

Sun at 0dg Aries is the Vernal Equinox, the start of the "new year" - Wed. 20th March, other aspects suggest some tensions on the day, and Venus (finances/monies/things of value) crosses the equinox 21st, making a line-up of Sun/Mars/Venus/Uranus in early Aries. . . Uranus is at 7dg Aries, and the others will cross that point, one by one. . .

Mars conjunct Uranus on 3.22 might just be some fireworks. . . leading to the full moon on Wed. 27. . . these days won't pass without incident, somewhere.

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3308616 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Economics 101 when demand goes up prices drop...duh!

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:15 | 3308620 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Lately, thats true since everything is backwards

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 16:57 | 3309956 Seer
Seer's picture

Careful... the converse has truth in it...

Economies of scale in reverse would suggest that a fall in demand can produce an increase in prices (when all is already cut to the bone).

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:14 | 3308617 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Crap, Nothing But Crap...

People are getting into shape and walking or cycling more...

Yeah...thats it...

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:17 | 3308628 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Very simple all you (me included) chumps:

 

Economic growth restrained by incremental costs of energy if any real "growth"  occurs.

Can't play the stock market because we don't have insider knowledge to game/time the system, and most assuredly we will be the suckers holding the bag if we try.

 

Which is why I am pissed. There is no incentive for retail savers, only Wall Street /corporate/political corruption.

 

 

 

 

Thu, 03/07/2013 - 11:20 | 3308640 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

At least demand for food stamps is still high. Wait is that good or bad?

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