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Kyle Bass Is "Perplexed" At Gold's Low Price
"The stress is beginning to show," Kyle Bass warns during a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg TV. "The beginning of the end," is here for Japanese government bonds as he notes that while quantitiavely it is clear they are insolvent, "the qualitative perception of participants is changing." But away from Japan specifically, there is a lot more on the Texan's mind. "Things go from perfectly stable to completely unstable," very quickly; even more so after 20 years of exponential debt build-up and Keynesian cover-ups; and it is this that he warns complacent investors that it is "really important to think about the capital at risk in your strategy." For this reason he prefers to hold gold rather than Treasuries, as, "when you think about the largest central banks in the world, they have all moved to unlimited printing ideology. Monetary policy happens to be the only game in town. I am perplexed as to why gold is as low as it is. I don't have a great answer for you other than you should maintain a position." His discussion varies from housing's recovery to structured credit liquidity "money is being misallocated by the printing press" and the future of the GSEs, concluding with the rather ominous, "at some point in time, I would much rather would own gold than paper. I just don't know when that time is."
Bass on Japan:
"I actually think it's the beginning of the end... When you have 20 years of pro-cyclicality of thought manifesting itself in the way that it has in Japan…I am not naive enough to think I can predict the end of a 70-year debt super cycle with any kind of precision, but looking at the changes in the qualitative perception of the participants is something that I think is key to the situation and we saw a big change on Friday."
"When I started sharing our views more globally it was the middle of 2010 and I said I believe the stress would begin to show itself in the next three years. Pretty much three years in, we're close, and the stress is beginning to show. Maybe that was luck at the time, but now when you ask the timing--look everyone wants the crystal ball and it's really difficult to predict this, but what you can do is follow where I think the stresses are going to show in the marketplace, but more importantly, you have to get into the heads of the participants because they all have a collective sense of fatalism. When you do the quantitative analysis here, you know they are insolvent. Everyone who owns the bonds knows they are insolvent. It's a question of how long they can hang on. What changes their views are a multitude of variables, but it's really important to follow any change in those views. When you see things like Argentina, Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Italy--you see how fast things go from perfectly stable to completely unstable. In this case I think it will happen more quickly because of the 20 year buildup."
On Hayman Capital having strong performance overall when it has a trade that, even if it's right, takes a while:
“When we think about the globe, I think about positioning. When you invest in a fiduciary like myself or someone else, you want someone that has the courage of their convictions. You want someone that is not particularly dogmatic. And if they are, you want to think about risk management. It is really important to size things properly. So far, knock on wood, I think you have to be as thoughtful as you can possibly be on the construct of the position and not set yourself up for many years of losses until something like this happens.”
"It's really important to think about the capital at risk in your strategy and the construct of how you put these kinds of hedges into place. We have 90+% of our money is long--long U.S. structured credit, U.S. mortgages, U.S. stocks--the majority of our capital is long."
On structured credit and the importance of being very liquid in the long side:
“Believe it or not it's really liquid right now. With Bernanke pinning rates at zero and the entire world continues to chase yield. Our indices are being led by utilities and things that don't particularly lead us into new highs, it's because of their dividend yield. So the whole world continues to chase yield. Structured credit and even mortgage credit are one of the most liquid areas in the marketplace today. People can't get enough of them. Even in subprime credit, 97% of the 20,000 line items are still rated below investment grade. They're still junk. The ratings-based buyers aren't even there yet. The money is being misallocated by the printing press."
On gold:
“We have always had a position in gold. When you think about the largest central banks in the world, they have all moved to unlimited printing ideology. Monetary policy happens to be the only game in town. I am perplexed as to why gold is as low as it is. I don't have a great answer for you other then you should maintain a position.”
On George Soros' recent statements that he’s losing interest in gold:
“George has been a much better investor than I over the years. When you think about the global monetary base, it is north of $70 trillion. All the gold in existence is around $7-8 trillion. There might be $1.2-1.3 trillion of investable gold. At some point in time, I would much rather would own gold than paper. I just don't know when that time is.”
On whether he'd rather own gold than U.S. treasuries:
“I do. If something happens in Japan like we think it is going to happen, I think U.S. Treasury nominal yields will go negative in a flight to quality. maybe gold moves up and Treasuries actually get much stronger for all the wrong reasons, not as an endorsement of U.S. fiscal policy because it is the only place money has to go... If monetary policy is the only game in town, we are all in for a world of trouble. That is the way we see it.”
On residential mortgage-backed securities:
“That investment is working... The various concentric circles surrounding housing not getting worse, which is how we think about it. We are not expecting it to get materially better, just not to get worse. The services sectors, the new mortgage insurance companies, the things that are actually asymmetric investments you can make around the housing market not worsening are where the majority of our long side of our portfolio is.”
On the future of Fannie and Freddie:
“I have no clue... We decided to just exit, thinking about them when you meet with both sides of the aisle, they both want a bullet in their head. Typically when that happens you get a bullet in your head. The second thing we were thinking about, if you remember there was a proposal to start raising the g-fees. There is a way for the U.S. Treasury to get paid back all of the money they've pumped into Fannie and Freddie if they start raising g-fees."
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Home Depot the other day...INFLATION>...get it? I'm eatin' trapped beaver...get it? Where's all this MONEY coming from? Duh...printin' press...do you PRODUCE? Who's John Galt?
Jim Rickards and Kyle bass need to go long on hairstyles. Other than that, all I gotta say is this guy fuckin walks on water.
How about Lee Munson? He's a conteder as far as the hair goes.
Impossible for markets to be efficient when so corrupted. I hate that my 401k etc. is there as will not play it otherwise. I bet you couldn't drive a pin up the ass of any of the pros as they must be on constant edge relative to the "market" and what could happen in a nano-second.
A guy who's as humble as Kyle Bass is a guy I want to listen to...he shows thoughtfulness and instrospection........unlike the megaphone that is Jim Cramer, who proves that the weakest dog barks the loudest.
When KB says "I really have no idea" he means "I'm smarter than all of you turds but I'll let you think you're the experts".
+ 1 Exactly
He's definitely not a large mouth Bass !!!
Loud voice, small penis
I like Kyle, but what's with the "Larry Fine" hairdo?
Hey, at least he's not orange.
OT: Has the "solution" to flash crashes and HFT trading been discussed on ZH? The "limit up-limit down" rule.
http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-107.htm
Limitup-limit down got implemented yesterday.
We're saved! /sarcasm.
One of the sheep I work with walked by and said, "save your money, the economy is tanking again..." This is the sign for me. Get your tinfoil hats ready as we got a shitload of people to poke fun at for their belief in this truly fucked up system.
Except he is right. Saving money = paying down debt which will kill you at 18%. If you are fortunate to surplus cash that is different. That can be traded for gold or food or whatever the hell you think might save you.
No shit Sherlock. That's been my plan for the last 4 years and its worked pretty well.
What pisses me off...after talking to CPA is capital gains tax that is nothing more than INFLATION TAX,,,the silent TAX. Who's John Galt?
I worked that one out a long time ago, if your investments keep up with inflation then they are taxed on the nomical increase, so you don't keep up with inflation, taking your purchasing power and giving it to the government.
Chicago - Does Anybody Really Know What Time It Is?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBuUUBrC9eQ (3:24)
Big spender---1% of his assets, but his mouth never stops spinning. He is all-in US stocks and real estate. What a con, he likely lost his shirt on his tiny Japan position.
you're a fucking retard
And you're not. +1
Ok.
You and him fight...
Go.
He bought insurance against the bonds failing. Someone took the other side of the bet for his small amount thinking there is no fucking way Japanese government bonds die. It's just like Vegas, baby, although I think in KB's case it doesn't involve luck.
He bought "life insurance" for pennies, or fractions of pennies, on the dollar. Big payout when the bonds die.
I'm a serious fan of KB, but there's one thing I haven't worked out yet: Who the fuck is going to pay him the trillions in CDS should JPG's crash. As Greece proved when they restructured (defaulted), TBTF will not pay up if the consequences are too great.
If you are concerned about being paid off you can sell your position. In another video he talked of buying credit default swaps on Japan for 1 basis point. He went on to say he would not insure Dallas against an atom bomb attack for 1 basis point let alone Japanese bonds but some 27 year old hot shot from a big bank offered it and he took it.
Now if the SHTF and the same protection zooms up to 50, 100, 200 BP he can sell his contracts for a a big profit without ever trying to collect on them.
Then selling would be advised well before the event occurs. The timing of your exit is actually more critical then when you take the position. If JPG's start falling, you're going to have a credit crunch worse then 2008. When its realized the cds were never made to be payed out, they'll be worthless. All this could happen very very fast. Within weeks or even a few days.
Fock...
If he didn't mention Bitcoins, he's an out of the loop dinosaur.
And obviously scared of technology.
I produce Money...Gold is money...even though I got to eat beaver to get it. I cannot buy .22 ammmo in Fairbanks, AK...things are fuxxed up...time to guard what you got. Who's John Galt?
Dow +60 at new all time high on expectations of thermonuclear war tomorrow.
{cue heavy metal music}
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpuNE1cX03c
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dawn_of_the_Dead#Plot
couldn't find a nice compilation of the tv debate from the movie, but the entire film is legally available for free due to lack of copyright.
it is completely illogical to state, as bass does, that housing wont get materially worse....ILLOGICAL....you have a growing class of chronically unemployed citizens...a middle class slowly being vaporized (and by the way, when deleveraging actually hits the u.s. shores--the remaining middle class---govt workers---are going to have a tough time of it)...................you have interest rates that are artificially held to near zero........who the fuck will be buying homes??? where is the demand going to come from???????........come on mr. bass....you make no sense....what happens when interest rates rise in this country? that wont crush the housing recovery???what happens to demand when the bond crisis hits these shores?? what happens when all of those bennybucks poured into every asset evaporate in price?????
if bass thinks housing has hit bottom, then bass is stating america is fine...that there will be no crisis here...that the crushing debt the u.s. holds will never be a factor in the downfall of americas economy......MR BASS MAKES NO SENSE..............
it does if you don't bite the hand that feeds you, you smile and say thanks "may I have some more, sir!"
Everything is fine with America.... I know because the teevee told me so.
I'm watching Cramerica right now with a ribeye and child's future ready to buy Facebook stawks and Zinga! it'll pay for her college edumacation!
My thoughts too. I can't see why he is so invested in MBS. The only thing I can think of, it is all he can find, better yield than treasuries and the same risk. Or perhaps he is assuming the Japanese experiment works the same here in the US and he has 20 years to unwind the trade. It is defintely a paradox in his thinking.
Why is he in MBS? Maybe it is because the Fed has promised to buy $45B per month of MBS from now to the end of time. As long as the Fed is buying, MBS will always have a bid. Your yield chasing is very liquid if you know you can always sell to the money printer.
right, so all is fine...kyle is saying have faith in central banks......their printing is the panacea......so hey.....lets go all in!!!!.........BULLSHIT.......you cant claim a global reset and claim housing has no more room to fall, which is just what he said quite clearly......so what are his REAL VIEWS, eh???
Maybe he thinks that when the SHTF people won'thave to pay their debts. It will just evaporate and the bank will let you keep the house.
that should do wonders for mortgage insurance, which he is heavily invested in......................
Okay, say he bombs on the MBS. He only has to hit on 7 cylinders to get where he's going. Make that 4.
if the fed doesn't buy mbs - you can say good bye to fh/fn/gn and the big banks making money on it citi - bac - wfc - jpm.
the big banks borrow at zero - loan it out at 3.5% and the fed gives them back in whole. if/when that goes away? boom. null. zero. nix.
call the fdic.
kito. he did indicate that if interest rates were to rise, then "all bets are off on the housing market". And he qualified this by saying that he doesn't think rates will rise and neither do I since it is both politically and economically unaffordable for bernanke to let them float. Yields will actually fall, and given that 1.75 on the 10 y has been busted several times (I have lost count), I think rates will fall much further than people think. I mean who would have thought JGB yields would have fallen any further than they have?
So, its not illogical for Bass to conclude with some measure of conviction that "as long as rates remain relatively stable", an interim bottom in housing, is probably in. Finally, saying that housing has bottomed is not akin to saying "America is fine", or "that there will be no crisis here", or that "crushing debt will never be a factor in the downfall of Americ's economy." Nobody is making those kinds of blind assertions, because none of what you have identified are necessarily correlated to the price of a fuckiing house!
Don't criticize his methodological approach to placing a bet unless you yourself have one to offer that is something other than "Gold Bitchezzz!"
what are you smoking??? the inevitable crisis wont affect housing??? any crisis that comes to u.s. shores will shirley affect interest rates, and bernanke wont be able to do a thing about it......and you dont think interest rates affect housing?????? REALLY??? so YES pareto, a crisis most definitely affects housing...................and you should know pareto, if you visit this site every once in a while, that i dont yell Gold Bitchezz, im a flat earthed deflationist who believes all asset classes will get crushed, including gold.......................
Of course if rates rise housing gets whacked - (in a normal world, or, if you are in an inflationary environment where both rates and prices can rise), BUT, that is not how he opened his assertion. And I reiterate, how the fuck do you know that rates are suddenly going to rise!? when everything points to them going down!!? If CB's are buying, how do yields go up....before they go to zero. Safe havens are perceived until they are not. Problem is, not even Paul Volker can turn this around.
People keep crying rates are going to rise, rates are going to rise. Yeah fuck for sure they will rise, but, you'll shit too if you're fed well. Bass's call is based on the continued status quo Centrral bank interference. don't think they can go negative? Denmark.
Yes, its true. You are a price deflationist. But price, is a monetary phenomenon, not a demand phenomenon. You need only to observe all the exchanges to see this. Demand (volume), has never been weaker, but the nominal prices are making new highs. Or consider the reports out from the EIA over the weekend demonstrating oil and gas consumption levels not seen since the 70's. If price were truly reflective of demand, oil would be around $45. We are in a world of inflation, you cannot deny this. I agree that prices need to fall, and inevitably they will, but, not in the current currency. naa uhhh.
Finally, in a world of a steady debasement of currencies (all of em!), deflation (decrease in the money supply), and price deflation currently do not exist. And (v) is at or near zero. So, in my opinion gold - which is not a commodity - its a currency, is at the floor. There is some thought that there may be some rush to the tallest midget giving some further strength to the $USD and this could easily shed another $200 off of gold, but, this is a short lived experience, given the very things you spoke of earlier - increasing unemployment, declining production/consumption. Money is eventually going to go, however, to shit that is tangible and can serve as a protection of wealth( value). And this says nothing about other reserve currencies being established on the other side of the globe that exclude $USD (see Jim Willie et al)
In the end, whatever the composition of monetary destruction, land, and hard currency will be the only things that will withstand either deflationary spiral (which I dont think is going to happen), or a hyper inflationary event (more likely to happen).
Prices are not EVER going to go to the floor and everything get crushed as you say because that is not a logical arrival. Rates would have to go to unbelievable measures through reverse POMO. Do you actually see that happening? Fuck, I think the Japanese are going to buy a bunch of Treasuries and all sorts of other shit in a desparate attempt to preserve wealth. I mean whats wrong with that quarter section out in the middle of Iowa? Fucking perfect store of value.
Bass isn't illogical. you're just hearing him wrong.
Kito I have to agree with Pareto. You are just hearing him wrong. Bass knows housing is totally fucked the minute rates tick up, He said as much. He just thinks the status quo with rates, foreclosure stuffing etc etc etc etc etc etc etc....all the shit that has dragged on far beyone you, me and everyone else ever believed it could....could continue for a while.
He said if we are down to printing money then we are all fucked. He knows that is all we have left so he pretty much leaves it there. Your conclusions are correct, just don't expect to hear it word for wrod from him.
Schiff on the other hand....
Pareto, nice compilation there. That's been my take for some time.
On the other side of this, true, physical assets will most likely be marked to a new currency.
My recollection on KB's mortgage holdings is he is in higher quality paper there. It's hard for me to believe we are at the end of the interest rate cycle quite yet.
And yes, most of the distressed populations have dollar denominated assets in their sights here. What other avenue is there at this point? Other than PM's which most people don't really understand.
And there's this, meanwhile. http://www.ginniemae.gov/consumer_education/Pages/ginnie_mae_and_the_gse...
Granted, hair trigger, but that and TIPS are a decent holding place.
was it you who debated the fundamentals of the carry trade with me a couple years ago? If so you've altered your base assertions... markedly.
housing may have "bottomed" nominally, but that won't matter when the entire structure of settlement in USD no longer functions. Under severe deflationary pressures, and money printing to fuck and back buying up real estate to "rent", you are going to have prices "rise" and ability to collect rent become none existent. because the currency will no longer function given lack of "liquidity". hence, hyperinflation without nominal increase, stagflation if you want, call it deflationary, it doesn't matter. as long as your dollar doesn't buy shit(where the dollars? you got any in your pocket?) you are still fucked, and no level of manipulation and propaganda will alleviate the strains of the common man being driven into poverty.
they are rationing jobs, trying to manage the poor through systematic re/un employment schemes. government agencies that aren't such.. it's crazy shit, and only history will prove me right, long after this bodies passing..
any honest man hiring right now is looking to get fucked, hard. same for those looking to be honestly hired..
(look at the bizarre oscilation in UI claims, i'm experiancing it, that data shows it)
there are too many people not doing fuck-all, and being payed for it(poor, rich, transwealthed, whatever the fuck you call it doesnt matter, those are your personal scapegoats). that is the reality. the conflagration will be legendary in the stories of the prophets who somehow manage to survive.
never debated anything with you...
at risk of being rebanned, please look for knowless in your history.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-60DmAHWb4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDm_ZHyYTrg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XacvydVrhuI
one more. hold true;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHuXWzxnSU4
Well, just because he says something it doesn't mean he believes it, or that it is the whole truth.
What happens if there is a panic out of equities and treasuries return negative? Might there be a run on "cheap" real property in which case he is positioned to make a bundle? I'm not talking about just big money here, think of the average Joe Middleclass if he panics about his IRA or 401k, he may choose to take a penalty and cash it out and buy some property, something can touch, rent, sell.
Maybe my theory is shit, but that is the kind of play he may be working, I'm guessing guys like him are playing three dimensional space chess in their heads. Being long housing may be a stealth short on equities for all I know.
But Obama care has not been fully implemented yet. If you can just hold on a little longer.
i'm very confident that what he means is that housing 'prices' won't get worse. because bernake's entire thing
is inflating the bubble - so on an inflation adjusted level - home prices get worse, but on a face value dollar level
they don't. besides big bad bama is working on bringing all of his wealthy world wide nobel peace prize loving
friends over here and hoping they will buy the premium stuff at a premium and drive up the overall 'housing
prices have recovered' again. and again. +1 billion people in each of china and india and even if the 1%
of them want out, they have plenty of money to buy into here. do the population math. that's a lot of housing.
i'm very confident that what he means is that housing 'prices' won't get worse. because bernake's entire thing
is inflating the bubble - so on an inflation adjusted level - home prices get worse, but on a face value dollar level
they don't. besides big bad bama is working on bringing all of his wealthy world wide nobel peace prize loving
friends over here and hoping they will buy the premium stuff at a premium and drive up the overall 'housing
prices have recovered' again. and again. +1 billion people in each of china and india and even if the 1%
of them want out, they have plenty of money to buy into here. do the population math. that's a lot of housing.
When can I invest in the KitoFund?
i only charge 500 basis points for my management fee..
I'd rather pay Graham Summers.
Give him credit, he is a player in the big chess game, although a small one.
If he tells what he really thinks, his fund will be annihilated by the collective hands of the powers that be.
So, he has a choice, plays his own game with the fund, without making much disturbance domestically, and meanwhile do whatever he thinks is right with his own accumulated money, or bite the bullet.
Which one would you choose?
He works for TPTB. His fund handles 2 billion dollars for big banks, pension funds, insurance companies etc. He won't even talk to you unless you represent a big financial institution and have multi millions to invest.
What he said was there have been 23 housing crashes since 1980 and on average they lasted 6 or 7 years and prices dropped 33%. The present crash has now been going on for 7 years and prices have dropped 36%. Therefore he does not think they are going to go much farther. On the other hand he does not see any reason for optimism. In other words housing is dead and he expects it to fart around and get noplace for the forseeable future.
OK here is the story:
there are 2 versions about why gold proces are low 1 the one that every analyist on the planet says...hey gold prices are low but boy are they come back with fury.
#2 The fofoa version.
This is not a quick story but here are the thoughts behind it. Gold prices are set by a paper market with infinite supply. The only way that they have stayed high is with support. That support has been withdrawn. Now we will see what a paper market does.
We are already seeing the withdrawl of gold (the actual physical bars) from GLD Jan 2013 1350 tons , today 1205 tons.
We have reports of decreasing supply at COMEX (or LMBA). This is a sign that those who know the value of real gold want it and they do not want unalllocated paper stuff. They are going to their APs and demanding physical.
The price will likely drop until the market closes.
These are ideas fofoa saw in December. They are not the observation of someone trying to explain things today.
Fofoa does not charge for his ideas. He does not send them out either. If you want to know his ideas (and verify what I just said about discussions in December) you'll have to do your own work.
When you see a better explanation please tell us, all of us. We want to be positioned correctly and knowing that the POG might drop is HUGE. It can give you the courage to hold physical through what may appear to be a big down market.
In fact if you hear ANYONE say anything other than 1 or 2, I'd like to know.
thanks
FoFoa might be on to something there, but I am going to have to see some significant deflation in his mega-verbosity before I ever decide to try exploring his ideas further. His theory seems to be, why say in 10 words what can be stretched out into 10,000?
What is he trying to hide in his rambling, convoluted, 250,000 word essays? A multitude of people writing on many more profound and complicated topics have managed, and do manage, to convey their messages or theories in a few paragraphs or pages, so why is this guy so consistently unable to do the same? If Einstein's Theory of General Relativity can be summarized in one or two ordinary pages of text, I can't understand why Fofoa is perpetually unable to do the same for his Freegold theory in less than 50 or 100.
I am a very patient reader, and I feel no idiot, but my mind has repeatedly reeled in frustation and confusion trying to make sense out of the semantic and logical Gordian knots that he continually weaves. You can call me "lazy" if you like, but I want some meaningful payback for investing hours and hours of my time (as I have done on several occasions reading Fofoa) only to find myself just as unenlightened as I was when I started reading him.
akak
I won't disagree. There are some who enjoy the long, exact, never ambiguous style of writing.
I believe that there are 2 reasons for his style. First he did not start out as a gold writer. He started out as an angry confused investor. He came out of 2008 and said 'what the fuck is really going on'.
He discovered the writings of Another and Foa. He spent a long time trying to understand what they were saying, and it is not what you hear in many other places. He writes to bring clarity first to himself and then to others. I see it as kind of like ruminations on a topic until you 'get it'.
Second reason...just his style. I have never seen a single spelling error, punctuation error or grammar mistake. The dude is just freaky perfectionistic. He has stated that he does not see freegold as something that can be delivered to the reader with a simple explanation.
There are various summaries that readers have done. Check out the Right side panel on his blog. You might find something more concise.
PS The longer folks study the freegold perspective and the more they understand, the more they seem willing to put money into physical gold. That has been my experience. I sleep better with physical that I do with any other investment. I am actually excited to see this halt in the rise of the POG. If fofoa is correct this will presage a reset to a significantly higher level. Knowing that a drop in the price of gold was almost required is very comforting and indeed will lead me to buy all the way down until the last ounce is no longer for sale. While all of ZH shouts 'manipulation' I'm just biding my time.
lasvegaspersona
Very nice explanation of FOFOA's blog. I would have far fewer ounces were it not for running into his blog in 2009. Yes, it does demand a long investment in time and thinking, but I too like the "long version".
FOFOA's writing is "rich". As a lit and English major (before I discovered that one could not make a living by reading books), I do appreciate his long posts. I'm almost sad to reach the ends of each of his new œuvres. Anyhow, I like the detail and the precise presentations. Just a matter of taste I suppose.
"Precise"?
Perhaps it's just me, Rocky, but it is almost as if we are talking about two entirely different individuals here. I find Fofoa's writing to be opaque, rambling, and convoluted to the point of complete distraction. It appears, to me, almost as if he is PURPOSELY trying to hopelessly confuse and misdirect the reader.
I have been criticized myself rather frequently for writing complex and overly long sentences, and compositions that demand more than the usual level of focus and attention, but I'm sorry, this Fofoa is in an entirely different and much higher league in that regard. There is simply no need to sink into such Stygian depths of complicated prose to lay out a supposedly fairly simple concept --- or even a fairly complex theory.
Fofoa just does not pass the smell test for me.
I'd suggest that you bypass his work in that case. Problem solved.
There is no need to read anything except Bank of England and FRBNY and BIS archives.
Another is a good break from the Archives but Another's derivatives are not in my opinion saying anything that Another did not say in the first place...
Maxine Nightingale "Right back where we started from"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCtk7WiZ_Ys (2:58)
i agree, he talks and talks and talks, jumping from one thing to another. his text is anything but concise. there's an old saying, whoever talks a lot has very little to say.
Recovery Summer 4 is about to begin!!!
From where I am standing (or sitting) I see green shoots everywhere........
Damn, my lawn needs cutting already
So, based on the above interview, Kyle Bass is one of the following:
1. working in cooperation with the banking powers
2. A free rider on thye banking power express
3. Lying
His stated basic assumptions are that money printing and very low Fed interest rates are here for as long as Bernanke and the other central banking parasites can keep it up. Provided that he is not lying, his positions most likely would be killed if the Fed stopped printing and raised rates.
Why does he bother going on television and explaining his views? ego? misdirection? he is told to?
We all know beyond any doubt that the money printing won't stop until at least 2018, when Bernanke's successor's term is up under a new Administration.
The Fed can't raise rates as long as the Government has to borrow a trillion dollars a year. Question is - can the Fed raise rates if the Government funds itself with trillion dollar coins?
1 He runs a hedge fund that handles 2 billion dollars for the big banks, pension funds, insurance companies
2 He does his own research with the help of a staff of 550
3 He may not come right out and say things as bluntly as on ZH but his meaning is plain enough.
His positions probably would be killed but he is not worried. He knows they can't change their policy and if they do he will know in plenty of time. If they don't announce it he will figure it out anyway.
Maybe he likes shooting his mouth off. Golfers talk about their golf game, fishermen talk about fishing, investors talk about investing. And maybe it is a form of marketing.
The level of manipulation on AU is insane. There's absolutely no reason it shouldn't have moonshot during Cyrpus, but it didn't. KB has to know this.
The side effect to such manipulation is, of course, that inventories are getting sucked dry. I know I may have to wait 5, 10 or even 20 years, but I know I'll see the day those fuckers at COMEX choke on this. I know they'll never see a trial, but I also know the day will come when absolutely no one will play their game and their paper prices will mean as much to phyiscal gold as a 5-year old's minature golf score means to who will win the Masters.
more knowledge in 20mins than bschool haha
Right to the point about Japan: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D0guj3OfOw
They're fucked!
Turn off you TV...you have been programmed to buy the CRAP so posted...over 5 years since I seen the demon...wealth is gold or silver or platinum or palladsiom...even copper/brass & deriviatives...(there;s that word again...Wake up & preserve your Wealth...buy GOLD buy SILVER buy REAL WEALTH...NOT the paper derivitive. Who's John Galt?
"Perplexed"?...GLD_SLV are fake, counterfeit paper, fraudulent naked shorts, so what the fuck, nothing new here!
He turns a good phrase. "We don't traffic in the market."
Patience, amigo....patience.
Way to talk your book!!! Brilliant!!!!
Skanky cunt asking Kyle dumb shit questions.
Italy and Greece cannot print their own currency, Japan can. Idiot. He doesn't even understand the diffences in the countries. He's trying to save his positions. Propoganda!!! do not listen to this idiot.
Kyle Bass, I'll tell you why the gold price is low. It's because there is a gold pool operating out of the BIS right now, it's because 95% of LBMA OTC gold trades are for unallocated metal which siphons off demand, it's because many central banks have just claims against gold time deposits with the bullion banks in London, it's because the Bank of England enters the London Fixings all the time by adding supply from the EEA account to dampen the price (buying back later), its because the gold leasing market is used to increase supply, it's because the BIS entered deals to give the Saudis gold behind the scenes through SAMA and Saudi International Bank, it's because the Stabilization Fund is still active, it's because the IMF gold is used in a lot of gold location and quality swaps which is legal under the Articles. etc etc..
On another note, China is getting one step closer to becoming the world currency winner. Australia and China are now trading without using the U.S. Dollar. This will save both countries "perhaps Billions in conversion savings".
I think the dollar is getting closer to being a second rate currency, if it hasn't already...
Good day !
kyle, knows exactly whats up. he's made his point very clear in the past. just minding his p's and q's chatting it up w/ the talking heads (this is just the daily news to them); he's a pro. he knows to be IN the game you got to PLAY the game. give em' an optimistic LONG, a shout out to Soro's, bla bla bla shit.... get back on tv.... repeat. plus what's so perlexinging about gold/yen? it's breaking new highs BAM! ...it's always 5 o'clock somewhere! and the dollar is on deck....
That talking head is annoying as fuck
bass is looking more like rickards every day.
IMHO investing in gold is all about timing. the best time to invest in gold seems to be when investors' perception of the US as a stable form of Capitalism is about to deteriorate. Barring that, all other forms of percieved or real risk benefit safe havens like Treasuries and DXY etc. Gold of course is the best store of value if and when the social unease with the current system grows particularly strong..... If i am correct, investing in gold is difficult.
IMHO housing is damaged goods for a while now. you need to have very young come up and begin thinking siplisticly that owning a property cost about same as renting it (it does not of course but that knowledge is available only with experience). those that have experience and have seen the property values rise inexplicably and then fall will be extremely careful with any property investments regardless of what the PE companies attempt to do...... So no, I dont see any greater than marginal improvement in the housing to say that i see no improvement in housing at all.
just saying.....
If i am correct, investing in gold is difficult.
Yes, it is. But if one is holding as a store of value, it's not. I don't "invest" in gold. It is wrongly categorized as a commodity.
we said "meh"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCcZqcPOlNM (0:05)
Here in the Deflationist's Lounge we were tossing down lots of ever expensive beer and laughing about how the cost of being perplexed is about to SOAR.
Europe is saved, well Greece is: "Vast Greek war claims against Germany explode like a 'time-bomb'"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9981837/Vast-Greek-war-claims-against-Germany-explode-like-a-time-bomb.html
"The alleged claim against Germany reaches a grand total of €162bn, including €108bn for rebuilding the country’s infrastructure after the Nazi occupation from 1941 to 1944. This is 80pc of Greek GDP."
Now if only they can collect... but I guess they can get a cash advance for the case.
Hitler and the Third Reich owes the money. The present government only came into existence in 1945 and had nothing to do with it.
Good luck collecting from Hitler you will have to chase all over Hell to find him.
Where Did The Towels Go?
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/04/where-did-towels-go.html
I am perplexed as to why so many commenters on this site would truly think that my heartthrob KB is perplexed. Of course he's not. He just knows his audience. And he knows there are globalist elite members in the audience who will take him down if he speaks too close to the truth. Wise man is he. And sexy. :) (Though somehow his former(?) wife called him "boring"?? I can't imagine..
You suggest that he's playing a game (even if you don't recognize it).
So then,
he is playing to whom?
And how will we get anywhere when even "the wise" play games?
And how "wise" is that?
I think it's pretty simple: he's just playing politics. As Sri Sri Ravi Shankar says, "Politics makes you realize that all of life is a game.... there was politics among the 12 apostles.... among Buddha and his followers.... When you recognize politics in any group, it enables you to be centered. It will enhance your skill to act and not get attached." I say KB knows the wisdom of playing politics.
And truth is not for all men, but only for those who seek it (Ayn Rand). Anyone who follows KB knows he knows, but is careful in how he tells. Each must seek out the truth for themselves and not expect it to be handed to them, let alone by the mass media. If KB got too close to the truth, he would not be broadcast by MSM. By playing their politics, he gains new followers who will google him and find truth themselves... this he must know.
If your allegiance is to the truth, you become increasingly uncomfortable playing games.
If your interest lies elsewhere, it is not an effort to keep the game going.
I disagree that your first statement is true for everyone (your second I don't get). Some who are sworn to uphold truth hate playing games, as you say. Others (like myself) know the game has to be played in order to inspire others to want to become better. So I find joy in playing politics when there is a higher purpose - leading others to discover truth. If you force most anything on people, they will resist. If you present it playfully, subtley, with little hints... then they may begin to seek it out for themselves... very often not, of course. But one must keep trying, eh? Otherwise, (for my personality type) life gets too all consumed with ZH, Drudge, Infowars, and the like.. Not so healthy to pursue truth so relentlessly. Life must also have play. Truth can still be part of that play. Perhaps KB finds talking with MSM to be his playtime.
While you sound like you have good intentions, you also sound like you've invited way too much Rand into your mind.
If you think this is a game and playtime remotely resembles an answer, you are to be considered part of the problem.
yeah, well, big up srisri, but- "seeing through the game is not the same as winning it" - magnum p.i.
To acquaint those who do not understand Ecothink, which is part of the theoretical underpinning of Newthink:
Kyle, it takes a shortage of silver to smack the price down, don'tcha know it?
Just bought another 100 oz.....
While I appreciate his honesty,
"Things go from perfectly stable to completely unstable," very quickly;
I'd be concerned that he's missing the part where even chaos looks somewhat orderly, if you catch it at the right time.
Perhaps too much attention on Mr. Bass...
in a state of chaos, now.
Me too, but I can wait for the ponzi fiat implosion!
... and as for gold, one should not really talk of a shortage of supply, the question is demand.
Given Cyprus and the desire of the rule-breaking class to turn the world's peasants into serfs now obvious to all but the most seriously intellectually challenged, demand for gold and silver surely has increased so to disguise the increase in demand the manipulators increase "supply". And by the way it is suprising how many people I have talked to have not absorbed what is going on in Cyprus, so stabilising the "price" of precious metals appears a useful part of the strategy of bringing the frogs quietly to the boil.
In some cases banks quote prices for gold, but when one fronts up at the bank one is told that there is no supply available; also that for some weak currencies such as the USD, petty trade is at one rate, but if billions are involved then one takes a severe haircut (maybe 30%, but who cares as the money was stolen in the first place and there is no honor amongst thieves). In other words haircuts have been around for some time, but even bankers are in denial.
All this in the "free" corporate capitalist system with its monopolised means of exchange (as distinct from the state capitalist system with its monopolised means of exchange).
If Central Banks don't suprress the price of Gold, how can they buy more?
Date of financial crash? May 22, 2013. My ass says so.
Date of financial crash? Yesterday, but it was, and is hidden.
Bass is also a teacher. Not just an opportunist. He is a humble guy who feels no need to prove he's relevant.
I've learned more about Sovereign structure by following his speeches and lectures than I ever learned in any econ class.
I don't agree that housing will muddle through indefinitely. We could easily maintain for the next 24 months, but I agree with many others that this is a deadcat bounce, and that it will implode all by itself at some point.
He's prepped. I doubt anybody who follows his work will dispute that fact.
GLTA
Looks to me like the premium on ASEs has gone up quite a lot.
New post on the Mining Muppet--Tinka, Alexco, Aurcana, and more!
http://miningmuppet.blogspot.com/2013/04/trades-and-news.html
Bass is the man.
The Masters has imploded.
Trees mostly dead, no understory, no blossoms,
potted plants only.
Thanks to chemtrails and HAARP.
Something tells me Stephanie Ruhle is a wild thing :)
In this particular case the definition of "perplexed" is this: "I'm crazy outta my effin' mind from the daily highway robbery with no consequences being committed by men in coats and ties."
Another measure of the value of gold was an event in Italy where armored cars were highjacked just before crossing into Switzerland. The capital flight was stopped by opportunists. They know armored cars going the other way are empty, and that includes the Swiss/French border.
I'm not a gold bug, but gold's charts turned quite positive on Apr 4. By holding at 1539, Gold managed to remain in a well-formed channel dating back to 2000. Combined with the descending triangle formation formed since Sep 2011, it suggests 1740-1800 by June.
https://pebblewriter.com/gold-breaking-out/
Some thoughts, I just would like to share:
Shocked by the analyses of all that analysts, I'm searching for the bubble in gold and silver. A sobering experience: I'm disappointed. Does a bubble, that is about to burst, look like this? Dead. Dead as a doornail. Someone should call an ambulance. One wonders, what these analyst-guys, who witness the global fiat-printfest, are smoking. Maybe it's those strange plastic plants they decorate their offices with.
Looks like such a dead bubble behaves like a rat, you partly missed when striking for it with the shovel: One has to hit it a few times more. And it seems, as if that's exactly what's happening with gold.
The analysts remain confident, that the price of gold must fall. Maybe it will. Or not. I don't care much. What I care much more about is the current money supply. Which leads me to a different question. When a bubble is nearing it's end, doesn't usually the funny money buy gold? The biggest buyers are surely the central banks - what a match. From this perspective, the bubble definitely has popped: The central banks produce funny money, and buy even funnier gold with it. Strange days, we live in.
We are witnessing a bubble, no doubt. A bubble of simpletons and a bubble of analysts. Who could tell them from one another?
Just my 2 cents
Kyle says housing is not likely to get worse.....it will when the dollar collapses. Let me tell ya.
Why are you perplexed Kyle, you are smart enough to understand the US cesspool of finacial prostitutes.
I consider myself an Austrian, but what a lot of Austrians, including Bass in this particular case are ignoring is the rampent inflation over the last 30 years and the huge bubble in credit in the US. This massive money creation by the private sector (banks, not fed) has been slowly being reduced by the banks recapitalizing after staggering losses in assets (IE MONEY DESTRUCTION) so there is no reason to be perplexed as the Fed is just starting to catch up with the destruction that has occurred due to the previous creation by fraction reserve banking. its that simple.... Gold is still relatively expensive if you look at it by historical standards (and before you say inflation adjusted was higher in 80's, that was a high inflation period when gold will be at all time highs, because gold is an INFLATION HEDGE).