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John Paulson Loses Over $300 Million On Friday's Gold Tumble

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There were many casualties following Friday's 4% gold rout, but none were hurt more than one-time hedge fund idol John Paulson, who according to estimates, lost more than $300 million of his own money in one day.

Per Bloomberg: "Paulson has roughly $9.5 billion invested across his hedge funds, of which about 85 percent is invested in gold share classes. Gold dropped 4.1 percent today, shaving about $328 million from his net worth on this bet alone." This is merely the latest insult to what has otherwise been a 3 year-long injury for Paulson and his few remaining investors, whose very inappropriately named Advantage Plus is among the bottom 10 hedge funds for the third year in a row. Yet despite being a one-hit wonder thanks to one lucrative idea (long ABX CDS) generated by one of his former employees (Pelegrini), Paulson still has been lucky enough to somehow amass a $10 billion personal fortune which can have a $300 million downswing in one day, even if it is in an asset class which eventually will go only one way - up. Unless, of course, like so many other fly by night billionaires, Paulson too hasn't somehow managed to lever up all his equity into numerous other downstream ventures, and where a $300 million blow up leads to margin calls and other terminal liquidity outcomes.

More:

“The recent decline in gold prices has not changed our long-term thesis,” John Reade, a partner and gold strategist at Paulson & Co., said in an e-mailed statement. “We started investing in gold at $900 in April 2009 and while it’s down from its peak to $1500, it’s up considerably from our cost.”

 

Paulson investors can choose between dollar-and gold- denominated versions for most of the firm’s funds. In addition losses from bullion’s decline, investors in Paulson & Co. funds, including the firm’s founder, lost about $62 million today on their gold-stock investments, based on holdings as of Dec. 31, 2012. New York-based Paulson & Co.’s biggest wagers in miners include a 7.35 percent stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.

 

Paulson’s Reade said gold will continue to appreciate in the long run because governments are pumping money into the economy at a rate not seen before.

 

“Federal governments have been printing money at an unprecedented rate,” said Reade. “We expect the strengthening of the economy and stock market to cause money supply to rise more than real growth and eventually lead to inflation. It is this expectation of paper currency debasement which makes gold an attractive long-term investment for us.”

That said, one doesn't have to be a bull in gold and gold equities to position appropriately for the eventual inflationary outcome, whose arrival is only a matter of time now that not one but two central banks are injecting $80+ billion in fresh liquidity into the global markets every month.

Recall that gold bull Hugh Hendry said in October that while he is long gold, he is short gold equities, a trade which has generated substantial alpha, courtesy of the 40% plunge in GDX and associated gold miners (a pair trade we have supported incidentally), and one which may well continue generating additional returns should Japanese financial institutions be forced to continue selling off the yellow metal on margin concerns, due to the record surge in JGB volatility as we explained yesterday.

As for gold as an inflation hedge, here Paulson is certainly correct. The only question is when will the price suppression scheme of gold as an alternative currency finally end. Since various official organizations (such as the Troika) are currently doing all they can to buy the sovereign gold of insolvent nations at firesale prices, it is likely that the period of artificially suppressed prices may continue.

Which, incidentally, for all those who lament the recent price drop in gold, is a good thing: for those who see gold as an alternative currency to fiat, all the recent sell off (as well as alleged or real downward price manipulation) does is provide a lower cost basis for accumulating hard monetary assets. Which is something to be welcomed and not mourned, especially if one plans on holding on to said gold (or silver) as a currency, instead of merely converting it back into fiat at a higher price point, and thus as an asset (something all those who bought BitCoin at $260 and sold at $50 appear to have completely forgotten).

 

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Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:50 | 3445334 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

@Tyler(s)

Bitcoin is suffering declines like gold - if you're comparing 2012 to now - on longer timescales, Bitcoin eclipses gold.

Gold - 2012 +7% Recent Drop 4%

Bitcoin - 2012 +188% Recent Drop (From the high of 266 to current last tick ~95.60) 64.06%

Something that Tyler has seemed to completely forget. (For yet another article.)

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:56 | 3445614 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

@TraderTimm

I suggest plotting Gold and bitcoin price history on a timeline.  Start with, say, 2000 B.C.  But be advised - there's apt to be a relevance epiphany.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 04:17 | 3446102 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

@mayhem

How painfully pedantic. "Oh my gold was used way back then!" *Revelation*

Obviously I was referring to when Bitcoin started compared to Gold - where it has been kicking its everloving dense ass ever since.

Its okay, I know you're thinking we're enemies - but we're actually allies. If you could stop saying completely idiotic things, that is.

 

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:15 | 3446160 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Ah yes.  Linked In has out-performed gold since its IPO also.  So I guess by you saying so the bitcoin comparison is meaningful (despite believing the fallacy that dollar-denominated "prices" are relevant).

Congratulations also for being able to look up words like "pedantic".

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 16:49 | 3447429 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

@mayhem

Ah, nice switching of strawmen. Stock == bitcoin? Hardly, in the same way paper contracts on Gold don't equal gold ownership.

But you know better - it's just the cognitive mindlock you find yourself in. Oh, and bonus points for the well-worn troll tactic of vocabulary slights, haven't seen that grey dishrag of a strategy hauled out for a while.

You're trying so hard, but it just doesn't work out, does it?

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:14 | 3446161 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Bitcoin is not money.  At worst, it is beanie babies with numbers on them.  At best it is a payment system. 

Gold is the standard unit of exchange that makes international trade work.  If you want to know what is enabling the currency wars and killing global trade, it all comes back to variable value unbacked money.  So the US must now be drained of all gold, just like Weimar, as the natural market forces balance trade in gold.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:48 | 3445422 JKearney3153
JKearney3153's picture

"On a long enough timeline....." well, ya'll know the rest.

Bulletz, bitchez

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:46 | 3445570 TeMpTeK
TeMpTeK's picture

All he has to do is stand for delivery.....And be like... "What now Bitches"

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:16 | 3445283 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

Patience is a virtue. The internet has fucked pateince, but the same rules still apply. 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:37 | 3445306 Jacque Itch
Jacque Itch's picture

Chump change, bitchez!

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:11 | 3445356 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

$300 million? Meh.

Fuck, I'm down thousands - hear me - thousands!

 

 

 

...if I sold, which I ain't, and I won't.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:45 | 3445568 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Stop counting it in FRN's and you won't feel any losses at all.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:19 | 3445285 Poqit
Poqit's picture

so btfd?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:23 | 3445289 valley chick
valley chick's picture

buy phyzz...with both hands..

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:36 | 3445304 lewy14
lewy14's picture

Will almost certainly see a thirteen handle before this is over. Maybe even an eleven.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:46 | 3445576 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Stop, you're giving me goose pimples all over. I'm about to squeal like a little girl.

If true, best buying opportunity in the last couple of years.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 08:02 | 3446213 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Okay, if you say so... I shold sell while I still can..
Not actually. I buy like it won't go down, but if it drops to 13xx I'll take out a loan to buy a crapload of phyzz.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:40 | 3445313 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I think buying physical is the right move. I am thinking of stopping my SRA contributions because of this move to cap revenue flows (aka Tax) retirement accounts. As I get older, the tax advantage of compounding drops off somewhat. The merits of starve-the-beast forced savings offered by payroll deduction, however, should not be underestimated. I will not pay the horrendous tax burden--high marginal tax rate plus penalty--by taking out my existing retirement money. That put option protecting against confiscation is too expensive for my most doom-mongering self.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:46 | 3445575 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Thomas, open a Self-Directed IRA and move at least some to buy hard assets. It's just a rollover, no penalty. You can have both.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:29 | 3445390 PLira
PLira's picture

I think you are right. Timelines matter though so it may be quite a slog as the hidden hand needs to crush gold. Here is one guys idea on what happened Friday to Goild and why. I'll wait a bit before getting some more to see where this goes.

 

How the Gold Market was Crashed

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:35 | 3445698 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

Great article, thanks for linking.

' it's called "beat the beehive", in the morning all the bees are dead and all that's left is a smashed beehive.'  (full of honey!!!)

 

So based on this, the smackdown should continue through monday???

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:59 | 3445835 PLira
PLira's picture

To tell he truth, I'm looking for a bugout property. Sheeple that I've deatlt with so far have not been appreciative to gold as a down payment. They want fiat.To switch to fiat is a negative. I guess that is the way TPTB want it.

This presents a dichovomy, imho. Therin lies the problem as I refuse to convert.

Refuse and die from the golden  horder or play the game?

I'll hold till I can't

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:21 | 3445287 Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

I am guessing here, but, I don't think he will be living in a tunnel anytime soon.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:23 | 3445288 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I agree that gold will go up. I doubt it will hapen in the context of a 99% paper market in which supply is always available (up to 170,000 tons) and an infinite amount of paper can be sold short.

I see a withdrawal of physical in GLD and Comex and could easily see the Chinese Hoovering up the last handful of real ounces. At that point the paper guys will sell the paper price down to 35 bucks an ounce and people will say: ooowww gold is in a bear market...and no one will be able to source even a 2 peso Mexican.

Then it will get interesting.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:16 | 3445366 screw face
screw face's picture

With all due respect, what is China buying all that there gold with?

Where does S. Africa fit in the mix? They got gold.

Good by petrol dollar.!

Monday is going to be fun for some, not so fun for others.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:33 | 3445398 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

screw face Mitt Romney over there knows the score. The fed is apparently about to unleash a bunch of interest rate hikes to try to cool down the obviously overheating economy. It can raise rates because we have finally eliminated our massive deficits and slashed our overall debt. Now that surpluses abound and all this "debt ceiling" talk is behind us we have reached somewhat of an economic nirvana. Savers are about to be handsomely rewarded with much higher rates on their deposits and everyone who owns bonds can now calmly exit their funds with nary a loss so they can get ready to reload again at much higher rates.

Gold is appropriately getting dismantled in this environment and I suggest capital punishment for anyone holding it throughout these rough times as they have been actively thwarting this recovery.

Hedge accordingy.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 05:38 | 3448892 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

You mean, we can ALL get a free lunch???

FANSARCASTIC.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:28 | 3445295 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Just 'cause Barry and John give up 5% of their money, I will too.

Is there a Habitat for Hookers?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:18 | 3445487 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"Just 'cause Barry and John give up 5% of their money, I will too.

Is there a Habitat for Hookers?"

No, but there's a Salvation Army in Delaware that gives top-dolla for used grandpa shorts.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:29 | 3445296 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

they're not pumping out money but DEBT. this is an INTEREST RATE monster not a problem with higher prices or "base metals" (although as a means of exchange gold has no equal...it would be ironic if Banks started only accepting gold as the price setting mechanism between two parties...to be deposited in said bank of course)...and only hedgies and Government are confused. Bankers are SLAUGHTERING the entire planet right now. And at a certain level "i love it." the Rhetoric has gone wild (in the media and by people "in the know")because no one is in charge. At some point "someone will be" however. that is a war machine that's still cranking both in East Asia and in North Africa and Central Asia. How cheap can it be made and still run like a well oiled machine? VERY. i think bitcoins opening on Monday will be very interesting to watch. will is suddenly soar as liquidity rushes in? in some ways with trust breaking down all over the planet that thing could become a "means of exchange" as well. all that is needed is for a bank to accept it as such (as with gold, as with silver) and congratulations...entirely new trading patters will emerge "because they can be financed confidently and the seller will know he's getting paid."

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 07:54 | 3446209 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I'm not sure I follow you but:
1. Bitcoin doesn't open on Monday, it's running 24x7x365 1/4
2. The price should fall because people in the gree should take advantage of the low price of PMs

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:34 | 3445301 carlsbro
carlsbro's picture

GOLD IS A BUBBLE

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:30 | 3445791 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Yeah, because so many members of the public are out there buying gold...LOLOLOLOL...please....

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:37 | 3445308 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

nobody gets to flee the oncomming economic implosion.
they just want to make sure everybody goes down with the ship.

if the price implosions of gold and silver don't work, there will be a sale ban comming pretty soon.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:06 | 3445353 Debugas
Debugas's picture

why so drastic ? they will simply impose a sales tax let's say 20% or even more

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:50 | 3445429 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

A sales tax on gold?

Not in the EZ and not in China. If the USG goes that route they wouldn't make a dent in physical sales worldwide. China bought 400 tons in March. That is 4.8 times the rate of 2012 purchases. Someting in happening here.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:38 | 3445309 Shooting Shark
Shooting Shark's picture

His Name Is Robert Paulson.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:38 | 3445702 HeavyShadow
HeavyShadow's picture

His name is Robert Paulson

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 01:08 | 3446017 resurger
resurger's picture

lol

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:37 | 3445310 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Gold doesn't measure up. I get less than I want for my $20 bill, but everything good is gone if I bury my chips in a dead medium when I could be betting on my living.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:42 | 3445316 Croesus
Croesus's picture

At least he didn't go long BTC @ $250.

Gold will go back up within the next 2 weeks.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:23 | 3445378 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"NEVAH!"

-Ben Bernanke

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:54 | 3445434 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Croesus

I see gold going down. I own it but the paper market guys can't control themselves and no one with economic sense will sell physical gold at these levels. Not with the FEd and BOJ printing at record rates.

getting weirderer every day..

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 23:39 | 3445904 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"getting weirderer every day.."

Yes, but time will tell.  Monday will be an interesting day.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 07:49 | 3446205 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Be it as it may, I sure as shit ain't selling mine. I have just enough cash to survive for a few months and the rest is being converted into PMs.

It is getting weirder and weirder, that's for sure.
I think we'll see record physical sales in coming days and it's not impossible that physical will decouple from paper.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:42 | 3445318 tovar2
tovar2's picture

Tyler....you don't need the grand headline to get attention...we all know gold took a dump on Friday.  It is only a loss when the position is closed.  This forum needs to be different than the MSNBC dribble.

Just saying...

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:13 | 3445359 Debugas
Debugas's picture

i have to disagree on "only loss when position is closed". It is a loss as soon as the price drops because the measure is your total networth across all asset classes you hold (think of it as if you sold one asset right before it dropped and acuired another asset which did not drop).

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:17 | 3445368 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's a loss immediately because you have to mark it to marke.....oh wait nevermind.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:51 | 3445593 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

It's a loss the second the price drops, unless you are one of the lucky few to mark-to-BS: have fun explaining to your margin clerk why a plunge in a security's price is not really a plunge in a security's price.

It is a realized loss the second you close out your position.

Just answering

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:59 | 3445617 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah I know, I just know you get tired of "fuck you bernanke".

Thanks for answering, and this site.

My best friend was telling me last night he is hooked on this site. He usually challenges almost everything I say, and he puts up a great fight. The fact that he has got caught up on here is just keeps validating what this site is all about.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:11 | 3445648 kito
kito's picture

It's me fonz....and you never knew until now.....

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:15 | 3445658 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

No wonder he kept telling me about wood chips...

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:42 | 3445320 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

This week is the opportune time to initiate a 25% position in the Senior Golds. In fact long Newmont for the 4.6% yield and short GLD would be an excellent pair.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:44 | 3445324 PeakOil
PeakOil's picture

Bitcoins "opening" on Monday? WTF? This ain't a stock exchange. Bitcoin trading is a 24/7/365 - given a network to trade on.

Trading on MtGOX has admittedly been sporadic. But that's different to saying the market is "offically" closed. It's a protocol - software. Nobody closes and opens it.  MtGOX, becasue it is the biggest exchange and leads the others, has been subject to an exponential rise in trading volume, DDoS attacks constantly and HFT gamesters. Other exchanges that handle much less volume have been up throughout.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:47 | 3445330 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

paper gold.

oxymoron.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:51 | 3445332 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

My theory is the hedges were using "GLD" as a cash hedge and buying stocks on margin  They are now getting the  margin calls!! Gold 'always goes up' was their thinking.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:52 | 3445337 kill switch
kill switch's picture

John Paulson Loses Over $300 Million On Friday's Gold Tumble

 

So, it's fiat

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:34 | 3445538 gwar5
gwar5's picture

People don't realize that if Paulson had been smart enough to hold $10 Billion in USD he would only be down $3 Billion, in real terms, since 2008.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:52 | 3445339 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Gold is the worst investment.  It's just better than cash, real estate, stocks, bonds, collectibles, or commodities.

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:14 | 3445364 Quonk
Quonk's picture

In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king?

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:20 | 3446166 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

He sold off all of our gold at $250 an ounce. And he was no King, but Prime Minister.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 23:05 | 3445848 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Better than lots of things but probably not better than arable land.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:19 | 3446165 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Not if your land ends up in a balkanized state, and you as owner, are the wrong side of the racial divide. Land is something you buy AFTER the dust has settled.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 18:55 | 3445345 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Ouch

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:00 | 3445347 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I visited a local pawn shop that deals with gold coins today just to see what he had in stock. Here was my experience:

Me: What do you have for bullion for sale.

Owner: Nothing. (Smirks)

Me: You probably wouldn't want to sell after the smackdown yesterday.

Owner: Nope.

Me: You heard about that, eh?

Owner: Its my business. (Winks)

The exchange left me feeling that he's got plenty, but isn't selling at these prices.

I'm wondering, did anyone else have a similar experience today? I know I'm not the only ZHer who was thinking about adding to their stack.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:21 | 3445375 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Look at Tulving. 17 silver items SOLD OUT. People are cleaning out inventories of physical metal.

Shortages are certain if prices decline from here.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:24 | 3445382 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

BOP my guy had both today. He wanted $30 for ASE and $1580 for AGE. He told me not to buy because the price was going to go down further but if I pressed him to buy he indicated he probably would not sell. Awkward.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:31 | 3445394 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Im hearing lots of those stories fonz. Nobody wants to sell at these absurd levels.

Bill Haynes said this today at KWD.

"We are entering another phase such as 2008/2009 where the physical buyers are going to have a major impact on both of these markets. The physical market is on fire and it will become an inferno if the central planners continue to artificially push prices lower. Buyers are already outpacing sellers by a stunning 50 to 1 ratio. We are seeing the beginning of shortages, but this will only accelerate if Western governments continue with this raid on gold and silver.”

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:14 | 3445479 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Yeah, right.  Shortages, any day now.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:17 | 3445486 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"ABN AMRO, the largest Dutch bank in the Eurozone, issued a letter to their gold contract customers of failure of delivery, and instead will pay account holders in a paper currency equivalent to the current spot value of the metal."

Whaddaya think Paul?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:22 | 3445498 akak
akak's picture

Apparently, Krugpigtroll cannot remember the near-total unavailability of precious metals in late 2008.

He was probably too busy stimulating himself in a Keynesian manner at the time to notice.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:28 | 3445523 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

He was at the ER to have his lost stimulator retrieved from the place where the sun never shines.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:33 | 3445534 akak
akak's picture

"Honest, doc, I must have slipped and fallen backward onto it!  It was a million-to-one shot!"

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:47 | 3445582 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

I lived for a year with a nurse practitioner who had worked 5 years, midnights, at a major US City ER . . .

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:13 | 3445656 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Realistically, your local dealer can't sell his inventory for a loss. Better to wait until prices rebound. And, your local guy can't hedge like some of the bigger boys. But, after reading the article linked to by PLira, I have to wonder if even the online dealers won't be claiming out of stock if the price keeps declining.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 08:40 | 3446254 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

I would like to see some follow up analysis by Tyler on that article, the true situation of those margin calls will determine monday morning's action...

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:34 | 3445536 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Don't worry, they still got plenty of paper for the likes of you.

 

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:51 | 3446184 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You know Krugman, you are right. There are no shortages. In fact there will probably be no supply at all.

I would like to know which bullion dealer is holding stock at a cost price below the current spot price in order to make it profitable to be selling their bullion.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:12 | 3445477 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

ditto-all of these fuckers bought at $30+ and now they're eating it

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:02 | 3445457 Blano
Blano's picture

Ironically, my little coin shop had silver eagles this week even after the drop whereas they had none last week and I was stuck with rounds.  They've been saying though it's hit or miss and generally eagles are few and far between lately.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:00 | 3445348 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Requires stockcharts.com membership:

http://scharts.co/VSzZl0

'4' wave completed.  Elliot wave one-wave extension.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:13 | 3445360 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So, Paulson not on the Advance Notice List? Grove membership not current?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:17 | 3445661 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Probably frefused to kiss Obama's golden scepter.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:15 | 3445362 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Hedge fund maggots and zh goldbugs on the same side of the trade. The irony, it burns.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:44 | 3445413 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

It's not a trade unless I sell it. If I have bought some ounces of Gold and Silver and I still have them, then I haven't lost anything. I'm not after more peices of paper for the ounces. I'm here for the ounces of metal.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:39 | 3445552 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

long on gold, short on brains, looks like the same side to me

 

meanwhile bondz are killing it.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:01 | 3446148 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Lol this idiot briefly disappeared after gold broke through $1600 but now he's back with vengeance. What a miserable moron

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:17 | 3446163 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

WTS all my silver, WTT life of endless luxury.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 05:57 | 3446144 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Buzz off troll

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:18 | 3445370 Investor-1
Investor-1's picture

I hurt just like Paulson. But I also still believe in the long term picture just like Paulson. I will play the next upswing with leverage. for that I use cfd's

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:36 | 3445543 auric1234
auric1234's picture

You'll have better chances at a real casino

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:19 | 3445372 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Here is Schiff (and I love Schiff) fumbling to find reasons for yesterday.

http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog

Goldman Sachs downgrade

Cyprus

My dog ate my homework

It's not you it's me

.................

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:31 | 3445524 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Hey Fonz, related topic, as we've talked about the miners in the past - do you think the support at 0 will hold?

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p00098206804

 

Honestly, what a fucking joke.  I get the whole irrationality of the markets thing, but I don't think I've ever seen such a concerted effort to break an entire industry.

 

(Eidt:Looks like you have to cut and paste the link...)

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:36 | 3445539 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

'do you think the support at 0 will hold?'

I just laughed so hard......

I give up Al. I went from thinking I had found a true value nugget in a world of overvalued crap to sitting back and literally not being able to watch anymore. I won't sell. I can't sell. But I can't watch.

I don't even know what I want anymore. I would rather the miners I own just close their fucking doors at this point than continue to bleed to death. It's death by a thousand kick to the nuts.

I find myself listenening to this song when I am forced to check share prices.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qs4svkNZZXc

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:52 | 3445603 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yeah, I feel the same way.  I surrender, just shut the companies down and put an end to the BS.  I guess that's the nature of the big finale in the monetary system - companies that produce competing currencies can are bad news, and entirely expendable, and breaking them sends a good message to all the 'crazies and malcontents' who might be tempted to question the wisdom of printing up $1.2 trillion/year in new debt.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:25 | 3445677 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"I guess that's the nature of the big finale in the monetary system"

if that does not sum it up I don't know what does.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 05:54 | 3446142 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I stopped watching, except for brief periods required to place a new buy order.
My logic is simple: if decent (say silver) miners can't survive, how can manufacturing prosper? It fucking can't.
Look and the insanity that's going on (Tyler's WTF charts from yesterday) and ask yourself how much longer can the WTF paradigm sustain itself. It can't for much longer. Consider the reality!

My time horizon is 5-10 years. Bring it on, bitchez!

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:16 | 3446162 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

The Japanese have been dragging along for 23 years. Sad, but true.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:41 | 3445554 kito
kito's picture

not sure why you love schiff so much fonz.......he talks out of both sides of his mouth.......says the govt will stop just short of wrecking the country....and in other rants, claims america is doomed and that people should be buying eagles and maple leafs in smaller amounts for barter because those are the two most recognized coins for the average person to recognize......

fonz, he also presents no flip side to the idea america will succumb to hyperinflation...that deflationary pressures on assets will continue to gain in gravitational force.....that there are no roots for hyperinflation to take hold when the money velocity is in freefall.....that nobody will lose confidence in the dollar because nobody will have dollars...............that the govt would sooner confiscate retirement funds and replace them with treasuries before printing into oblivion............

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:47 | 3445584 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I like Schiff (generally) because he does not try to rationalize the daily noise. That is why that link irritated me so much. No one really knows why that massive Friday dump happened. I suspect we will know at some point, and my guess is it will be something none of these pundits claimed.

Kito I presonally (hate to hijack Bass) can't distinguish between massive deflation and hyperinflation. If I can't afford something, whether it is because my dollar is worthless, or worth so much but I have none because I coughed them all up just trying to survive..it kind of becomes a moot point. So I have cash, and PM's and my plan is to try to accumulate both, and hold onto them as long as I can. In the meantime I want to accumulate real assets.

As for Schiff's flip side, I thought it was that deflationary forces will be met with inflationary responses...

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:13 | 3445652 kito
kito's picture

You cannot inflate a punctured balloon!!!

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 01:49 | 3446046 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Hyper inflation is not about the velocity (v) of money.  The only thing a record low v tells you is everybody's broke.  Hyperinflation is about a loss of confidence in the currency traded.  Velocity of money is rapidly declining, I suspect, not so much that prices are too high and people aren't buying because they are not working (though that is part of it).  Declining (v) I think has more to do with people exiting the $USD for other preferred stores of value backed by something more than a declaration.  Since the $USD is fiat currency (nothing but a promise to pay some value equivalent some time down the road), a debt/equity >0 and a GDP growth rate that cannot sustain interest payments were rates to tick up suggests to any accountant, that given there is little prospect for GDP growth forward, the country is essentially insolvent.  Thats the problem with fiat.  You have to respect debt and your balance of payments.

Bass talks about this in the context of investing in productive assets, though in the US, this is becoming increasingly difficult to do, since most manufacturing and value added processes have been shipped overseas.  Other than the MIC and agriculture, there is not a lot to support $USD fiat especially since MIC is not productive manufacturing (its end product is designed exclusively for destruction).  So, we don't produce anything, we don't manufacture anythihng (like we used to), we have limited raw resources..........what then backs the credibility of the fiat declared backing the $USD.......HOPE?

You continue to fear price deflation, yet, in any depression, declining prices were always the silver lining.  Forget falling prices.  That is the least of your concerns.  Fear only the rejection of a fiat that is increasingly losing respect internationally as a credible clearing currency for goods and services traded.   By the way, should gold fall to, say, $400/oz, I am no worse off or better of than if gold sky rockets to $2900/oz.  It will still, forever and always maintain a relatively real stable value in exchange.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 06:06 | 3446152 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Schiff also wants to remove the minimum wage. Well when you consider how miserly the wage already is, how hard it is for someone to support a family, even on the average income, then his policy will only see the States going the way of the Ukrainian Farmer post Lenin.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 08:16 | 3446235 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

Minimum wage is for entry level workers, moron, not a two parent family with two children.

 

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 08:31 | 3446246 The Abstraction...
The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Moron yourself, there are plenty of people on a miminum wage trying to support children.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:24 | 3445678 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Whole lot of folks taking physical possession...or trying to

big problems lie ahead

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:28 | 3445389 pauldia
pauldia's picture

Paulson did not lose a dime unless he sold!

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:45 | 3445397 q99x2
q99x2's picture

GS needs to get money and that dude is a sitting duck. He needs to pay more in campaign contributions.

And, over at the Gox's mom and pop shop...there is a method to their madness. Everytime the price starts to drop trading is halted. Then while the market is offline the price magically rises. As the market continues to rise trading is re-opened to take orders.

The bitcoin plunge protection team has it all under control. That's fine but how do you BTFBD?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:43 | 3445408 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

This overall 20% plunge is where the men separate from the boys. Who will stand with the Bankers and who will stay to their conviction about fiat demise? This is also a reminder of why leverage to the system is a twisted poison with excellent initial flavor and a bitter bitter after taste.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:49 | 3445421 newengland
newengland's picture

ZH ran an excellent article from asiaconfidential earlier today which concurs with you. This is a time for cool analysis, and strong hands.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 08:29 | 3446245 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this drop in PM prices just happens to occur when several nations and a large us state, have ask for return of their gold from NYC banks and London banks. no correlation of course, one would guess that fiat cb's might have gotten a little concerned that this would escalate. 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:55 | 3445606 defencev
defencev's picture

This overall 20% plunge is where the men separate from the boys. Who will stand with the Bankers and who will stay to their conviction about fiat demise?

This is absolutely idiotic. You cannot invest based on ideological considerations. You all will  end up sitting on pile of rocks

(just make dildo out of it and fuck yourself then).

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 11:31 | 3446512 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

Diversification and investment in metals (as a portion of overall net worth, 25% in my case) is far from "ideological" you twit. It is clearly fundemental analysis. Let me give you an example:

Obesity is bad. Yet, we are seeing an epidemic in developed countries. So now people practically think obesity is "normal." If you go around saying that people need to watch out, exercise more and eat better, are you sayng that on "ideology" or fundemental scientific evidence?

In a world of fiat paper currency, hiden leverage, and debt-based growth (the obesity), telling people and governments to step away, save, own real assests, and avoid the debt (exercise and eat healthier) just does not seen to work. Governments and banks are like McDonalds and Apple, they need you to go into debt.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:02 | 3445418 newengland
newengland's picture

Do not buy gold on margin. Do not fight the Fed on its own turf. The BIS is aware.

Paper. Scissors. Rock.

And shut up Krugman, overfed House pet. You are an embarrassment. A liability, serving out your last contract.

Physical gold and silver will determine price sooner than players know, with their paper bets and hubris.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:26 | 3445508 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Exactly, they're taking out all the stops.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:43 | 3445711 web bot
web bot's picture

And where is Krugman? Are you Krugman? Just let Mr. Akak and I know and we'll take over from here...  :)

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:52 | 3445430 carlsbro
carlsbro's picture

ZHers please keep buying gold. Thank you

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 19:58 | 3445447 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The dump in PM and oil yesterday definitely had the look and feel of a forced liquidation or squeeze. Doesn’t seem like Paulson could have been the victim (squeezee) though. If his stake was under real threat the drop would have been even bigger. That leaves me waiting for news about the next MF Global, or something similar.

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:21 | 3445482 newengland
newengland's picture

James Turk and GATA always 'get it' :-)

The timing is difficult and sometimes misjudged, but the broad theme is true, and proven by events, facts, figures.

The magic sophistry of manipulators and their overfed House pets are proven to be wrong, but they do so like the roll of the limousine wheel, running over  ignorant masses who pay to worship them.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:26 | 3445516 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

It's not sophistry and magic so much as racketeering and thuggery.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:15 | 3445481 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Paper gold and equities could lose over half their value, if not more, in the next bubble pop.

Sure, the price of gold will go down, but in this currency war it will be a tangible that will go back up faster than anything else.

When the world of intangibles doesn't have a bid, especially if the FED ever quits goosing things, tangibles will be even stronger.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:31 | 3445529 shuckster
shuckster's picture

Oh God, the ZHer's are crying about 4%? What are they going to do when it hits $800?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:39 | 3445548 akak
akak's picture

You must be talking about silver, right?

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 12:54 | 3446704 shuckster
shuckster's picture

AAPL will hit $800 before silver ever does

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 02:18 | 3446059 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Need to better understand what went on idiot!  http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 02:50 | 3446070 Kina
Kina's picture

Krugman you you little Bernanke coated Soros kiddy fiddler.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 20:30 | 3445530 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Gold and Silver buyers outpacing sellers 50 to 1.....

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/13_Ha...

"Haynes: “Eric, last week we sold more gold and silver than we normally sell in a whole month.  On Friday alone it was astounding because we sold as much physical bullion as we would normally sell in an entire week.  There is a great deal of big money coming into the market on this decline."

I personally just got back from our favorite Coin shop and the owner told me sales we're throgh the roof...He literally sold everything he had and we drove home with nothing.

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:06 | 3445638 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

gotta be great to be a guy who can drop a cool 300, followed by whatever the next generation's /lettter/number is, and still literrally ally, buy the lot of us fror lunch money to him.

 

:)

 booo whooo

     for whooom?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:35 | 3445699 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Feel the fall........

 

 

embrace what the CBs are doing to your stack........think not about the value in paper currency.....

 

 

there is a reson they want to devalue your alternative currencies. Same reason why the CBs are buying physical.... Trust in yourselves

 

 

 

Buy a few extra cans of fruit, plant a few extra seeds, raise a few animals......

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:41 | 3445708 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Gold is overrated..........

 

 

 

 

it takes a much too large sum to be able to club someone over the head with

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:44 | 3445712 raki_d
raki_d's picture

Fuckin idiot- fighting the Fed

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 05:42 | 3446134 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I get rid of my dollars in order to buy 1oz of silver. Therefore, I am fighting the Fed. And you're an idiot.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:49 | 3445717 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Please tell me everyone else does a "tee-hee-hee" when "Dr Paul Krugman" posts here?  I'm laughing because he used his NT front to give you this:

 

I’ve been told that there’s a commenter on Zero Hedge who is pretending to be me. Not so. I publish my column and this blog; there is a Twitter account, NYTimeskrugman, that is a Times robot that tweets titles of columns and blog posts; and that’s it. I don’t leave comments on other blogs, I don’t have another Twitter account, Facebook account, Google Plus account, or any of that. Hey, I am trying to have a life.

And I do think that it’s kind of curious that I’ve had repeated incidents in which people pretend to be me, usually in an attempt to make trouble. Is my real output so hard to criticize that people looking for a way to discredit me have to make stuff up? [April 8th 2013, NYT not only jumping the shark but full on taking LSD and admitting it]

 

Rule #1: If you have to tell people that your Satire on a disreputable website isn't you, then a) your profile is fucked and b) Sans Soleil.[1] Game is up, you fucked up, no-one cares anymore.  It's not about Media Presentation, it's about knowing what the fuck you're doing. I've seen tyrants from Burma with better media sense. And yes, those are the ones on camera signing up to spending their IMF loans on camera. . . . . [1] If you want to play the Illuminati / mis-use of Greek tropes game, it's produced by Athena's Owl and Argos films [hint: his team is famous. And p.s., loving that inject on the scramble there, sweet].
Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:48 | 3445723 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

it's a good thing that i don't even believe my own wrighting.

:)

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:58 | 3445735 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

April 7th

 

And, for a second, I imagined that this was all a massive MiM attack, and the evil Communists / Lizards were taking over the airwaves, and this was some kind of plot!

 

Then I read it: Him doing it wrong.

 

 

 

As ever, in life, we can spare a moment to do the: **sad panda**.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 21:58 | 3445727 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Paper silver and gold are in "contango" with physical. They're similar to the [(cl) W.T. and Brent] spread last year, and we all saw how that one turned out. I love and hold physical of both, but prefer silver right now. Anyone selling physical right now is crazy!

     I have paper [xag] contracts here at the bottom, and added more on Friday as a hedge against some of my F/X trades. I'm not sure what the usd is going to do when the equity markets sell off. As of late the $ has been selling off when U.S. equities drop. Late last week I noticed a slight shift back to the $ even though the equity markets were a bit softer.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:18 | 3445768 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

I'm part owner of a coin shop and we run ads all week long for Silver/Gold coins

The market is drying up the past couple weeks, nobody is selling anything.

I personally only buy Silver coins...

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:26 | 3445783 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Thanks for the heads up Bingfa. +1

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:10 | 3445753 Chip
Chip's picture

To the extent that investing is about matching one’s future stream of liabilities (i.e. purchasing needs), Gold investors should be aware that they are actually taking a huge risk relative to their liabilities stream.  That’s because aside from the bitcoiners out there who are planning to make all their future purchases in Satoshies, the rest of Americans are likely to continue making future purchases in dollars.  It’s reasonable to take the view that these dollars will lose value over time (they always have) but owning gold is a highly concentrated bet on this idea.

When you invest in Gold you effectively disconnect yourself completely from the value of the dollar, which means that if you’re pricing Gold in dollars ($1500 per ounce) the value of the asset as expressed in dollars is likely to be highly variable.  All asset prices consist of two core components: 1) its value in relation to the unit of measurement (currency) and 2) its intrinsic hedonic/economic value.  By owning gold or any foreign assets for that matter the investor is implicitly taking risk on both fronts.  So it would follow that the ride could be a bumpy one.

By contrast a difference between owning Gold and a share of equity is that as long as US companies still conduct business in US dollars, an investor is at least still invested in an asset generating value that is somewhat attached to the value of the dollar and therefore not straying too far from their liabilities stream.  The upside is that even in the worst case scenario that global fiat regimes totally fall apart, there is nothing to say that Walmart can’t start doing business in Satoshies, Globals, or whatever other currency takes its place.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 05:40 | 3446130 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

"The rest of Americans" (aka freetards) will keep using dollars because that is what Uncle Sam hands out.
A good question is whether the dollar will be worth much.

> When you invest in Gold you effectively disconnect yourself completely from the value of the dollar

You don't because gold has a price, in dollars as well in other currencies.
But yes, the idea is to get the hell out of the dollar while people still accept it in exchange for gold.

> there is nothing to say that Walmart can’t start doing business in Satoshies

How about the government?
Satoshis won't and can't be accepted for similar reasons as silver and gold.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:12 | 3445757 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

When a person owns the physical they don't lose anything. It always weighs the same.
This could have been an orchestrated take down, but I knew there would be a day when people would flee the paper game and I imagined it would look like this.
Paper gold is for the bag holders

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:32 | 3445792 sharky2003
sharky2003's picture

I keep thinking of Ron Paul when these routes occur. I read a while back he had some significant money invested in the miners. http://blogs.wsj.com/totalreturn/2011/12/21/the-ron-paul-portfolio/

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 22:44 | 3445809 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"of which about 85 percent is invested in gold share classes. ."

'

 "New York-based Paulson & Co.’s biggest wagers in miners include a 7.35 percent stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd."

 

Thats why you  buy in real gold nothing else.

 

He is part of the problem

Buy phyz and take possesion,anything else is a joke.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 23:11 | 3445862 Arkadaba
Arkadaba's picture

Miners have been smacked down relentlessly over the past four or five years - mostly undeserved.

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 00:15 | 3445967 sablya
sablya's picture

I find it more than a little humorous and less than slightly suspicious that the PM markets completely ignore the fundamental demand for physical silver and gold, refusing to allow the price to increase, whereas a sale of some pitiful amount from Cyprus, small physical supply which Russia or China could slurp up without batting an eyelash, is sufficient to drive the price of silver down 5% in one day. What a load of BS!

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 02:16 | 3446057 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Read this and you will understand just how courrpt this country really is. http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 09:26 | 3446282 gonetogalt
gonetogalt's picture

Right, this is really important.

 

Edit>stupid question<

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 01:38 | 3446039 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Who cares if you lose 300 million worthless dollars, THIS IS A CHANCE TO PICKUP MORE VALUABLE GOLD WITH THE SHIT DOLLARS!

Sun, 04/14/2013 - 02:57 | 3446073 ozzz169
ozzz169's picture

completely ignorant statement...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!