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Gold Drops Most In 30 Years
Previously, levered hedge funds were forced to sell gold on stock margin calls. How long until today's gold plunge, the largest 2-day drop in the past 30 years, forces funds to start selling stocks to meet margin clerks vocal demands some time around 2pm today?
John Bougearel of Structural Logic chimes in:
Today is the largest one day decline from the previous day's close @ -9.6%. Volume is already north of 530,000 - another record with another 6 hours of electronic trade to go. There have been three rounds of liquidations. The first round was the Asian liquidation that ended at 9 am. The second round was the European liquidation that ended at 5 am. They are spaced 8 hours apart. At this rate, the US liquidation phase won't be complete until the London closing at 1230 pm CST, at least this is what that behavioral model suggests. You are witnessing an historical selling climax folks.
and the RSI shows gold to be the most oversold in 31 years...
as Gold pushes down to the 50% retracement of the 2008-2012 swing low-to-high...
and the S&P in Gold terms broke 2009 resistance (and perhaps explains more of the technical surge)...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Smiddy, you still around? Damn, I feel like I haven't seen you in ages.
Well, if one were to have to lug around something worthless then I'd have to say Bitcoins... I'm figuring that this particular state we'll never see (when gold goes to zero Bitcoins won't exist because there is likely going to be NO infrastructure to support it).
Well ~ When gold goes to zero, I'm sure the NY Fed, Ft. Knox, & all the JPM vaults will breathe a sigh of relief... Think of all the money they'll save by not having to pay for massive 24/7 security at their vaults... I'm thinking the things will just be converted into soup kitchens... They'll stack the bars to one side to make room for the cots for the homeless...
Neither of course.
Look, I don't think gold isn't worth having. I just think at current valuations it isn't worth BUYING. I've been saying that for while, incidentally.
Neither???
~~~
Damn, you bitcoiners are even stupider than I could have possibly imagined...
Gold goes to zero & you don't want ANY of it?... Fuck ~ Gold goes to zero & I'll be buying toilets made out of it...
do you think gold will go to 2,000 before bitcoin?
couldn't even get into Gainesville and when i did I was 15th in the Cube...never have i been more than 4th in the cube
Actually, the word is "queue" - pronounced "cue" as in cue ball.
Next step 700$
Hey, maybe. It's their system and their market, so anything is possible in the land of OZ.
Gotta carpet bomb the munchkins with the audacity to skip along the yellowbrick road.
When you sell a year and a half supply in one day, anything is possible. Gonna take some serious printing to replenish the banks for their troubles.
This will get the Fed's attention. Can't win 'em all!
Yep, when everyone is all-in levaraged 25-1 or higher, it only takes a 4% drop to wipe you out completely. No lessons are ever actually learned, because they're all just degenerate gamblers and they all follow the herd every time.
Jump you FUCKERS!
Suck it up and BUY,BUY,BUY, bitchez!
.
LOL!!! GET READY!!
Last time a sell off like this was in Aug of 2011, an it wasn't anything like this one..
Hmm, now what happened in Aug '11 ?
Oh, right..
Ha ha ha heh heh...
Are we having fun yet..??
I'd settle for them hanging from lampposts
This market 'correction' should really 'stimulate' the economy. I'm expecting at least a negative 5% GDP next report.
this guy had a bad day
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21994873
keep an ey on Rupee.. should sel off hard on the back of this gold move..
Won't stop a bullet
Defininitely a WTF moment. DAMN
I got off a short on the ES, (mini S&P 500), contract for June @1562.50. The mass mind is "nervous in the service".
I'm buying this smackdown!
LOL - bought all the others too, and I'm not doing so hot.
Silver starting to bounce a bit now: http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/
The only thing I'm regretting is I could have bought more today than I did before for the same amount of paper.
The only thing I am regretting is that I didn't sell a bunch of gold last Wednesday or Thursday with cash in pocket to buy back in after the route.
This couldn't happen to me. I'm not selling gold.
If you want to speculate, do it with paper. There won't be gold available at any FIAT price when the music stops.
Gold is saying that money printing is going to stop....deflation wins.
But wait - this is paper gold?
And the banks go tits up within a week. Ain't gonna happen.
Are you so dense to believe the QE programs were to buoy the economy? It never was the intent. The sole purpose was to keep the major banks liquid and appear solvent. No other reasons.
tylers---
i went short spx and tnx 2 years ago per your analysis ands long gold
what do i do now? (is there a disclaimer on this website?)
See bottom of page:
"Familiarize yourself with our legal and use policies every time you engage the site: they're updated constantly without notice."
Best disclaimer of all time.
true. but the op's point was, this site does tend to tilt a certain direction on this matter, and not just the site, but the many posters, even on this thread, who are trying to rationalize their malinvestment in pm's. Hence perhaps the op's use of the term "Tylers" plural. So many of you: so are you saying, this site is filled with people touting pm's, but who are doing so to play against that advice?
I don't buy it. Lots of posters here believe in pm > fiat. The op was being sarcastic, because, this site's overall tenor, is going up in the flames of a market proving the scheme wrongheaded.
SOMETHING > fiat, but it ain't pm. Hint: they orbit the sun. And we are going to start harvesting them.
NASA = Now Asteroids are State Assets
Yeah if you think harvesting asteroids is going to increase the gold supply in the next 20 years, you obviously have something better than my O.G. Kush, please kick down.
My personal unprofessional opinion?
Gold going down because others whom have levered up in the markets are getting hammered and are selling because they have to meet margin calls.
I'm keeping the gold and buying more. My paper dollars will fade much quicker in due time.
Exactly. My PM's have a job. Their job is to sit in the safe and welcome their round brothers as they wander into the safe. They are tasked with keeping each other safe, shiny and warm until my little boy grows into a man and inherits a broken country, a degraded people and a ruined economy.
They are then tasked with giving him a head start to a life of debt free freedom. So far, they are doing their job as instructed. I see no reason to fire them. They are good and faithful servants.
My lunch break is coming soon. Today is an excellent day to add to their numbers.
Very nicely put. + 1
Nice warm and fuzzy feeling, as a parent will desire for their children, but the truth is; the future government will not allow the majority to be debt free or independant. We will all be taxed into oblivion. Thats what the "fairness" thing is all about, we will all be poor, begging the government for money back. How true that I say this on Tax Day {the real April Fool's Day}.
Damn straight
Here, I'll give you a +1 eventhough votes are broken when you quote someone in the first line :)
What you're doing is being a good father and I respect that. I pray to no perticular invisible person that I'll be able to do the same for my boys.
Funny but I don't recall any precedent of history in which (after gov'ts exceeded their debt carrying capacity and began heavy-handed interventions in all markets) Gold fell in the medium to long term. IIRC, Roosevelt revalued from $20 to $35. Exter's pyramid, Gresham's Law, seniority of claims in event of bankruptcies. This reminds me of Enron with the global currencies being the stock certificates. Anybody in glee holding those stock certificates now?
The house needs the gamblers to enter the scheme. They're filling the floors with shills, advertising loose slots, pumping the shows and buffets, showcasing the supposed instantly wealthy...anything to keep people in their game and chips. Problem's when everyone has deserted the floors, cashed in the chips, and show no interest in the gamble. They're left with the deadbeats, parasites, and coupon clippers. Make an economy with that.
You realize that blaming others for your position is about the dumbest thing you can do. Above all else think for yourself. Finally, it was and is good advice. What lie stands today fades tomorrow to the truth.
"Go long belgian caterers, short chinese caterers." ;-)
Abstract from the ZH disclaimer: Making investment decisions based on information published on Zero Hedge, or any internet site for that matter, is more than unwise, it is folly.
Why yes...yes there is a disclaimer..I'll even provide a link for the do your own due diligence challenged.
http://www.zerohedge.com/help/disclaimer
Well...damn! What good is free Bubble-Up and Rainbow Stew without the backing of the full faith and credit of someone else somewhere else?
This shit ain't over by a damn sight. Hold fast.
Sounds to me like you'd be much happier at Goldman. They're always looking for a few new muppets.
Sorry for your loss Derek.
Try these guys next time: www.goldmansachs.com
They are knowledgeable, and trustworthy.
[oops-alien beat me to it]
You seriously misread the analysis then (fucking retard). Everyone knows that with QE, stocks can't go down. Only an idiot would be short stocks.
You're losing your ass because you are a dick. Enjoy your $50 silver
AB AMRO is what you can expect henceforth with metals. Get your physical kids. If you can find it.
beelining to the dealer now-2013s ASE for $4 above spot
four bucks? not bad, i just got a quote at six over.
This is a tough one for me... I had $1,000 in a rubber band to put on 'Goldencents' TO WIN in the Kentucky Derby... Prolly go off somewhere around 9-2...
Bring it on...I got some fiat shit to throw at this massive opportunity.
This chart tells us 1 thing: If it's possible to the downside, it's also possible to the upside.
makes all the sense in the world...
Gold normally drops when:
1. Banks have a div. of +-10%
2. Bonds give more than 6.5%
3. And when we have a stable and growing economy...
I might have missed the news on the above 3... but it must be out there....
OR: BANK CRASHES COMMING!!!
EVACUATE ALL FUNDS OUT OF BANKING SECTOR!!!
BUY THE CHEAP YELLOW STUFF!!!
http://i.istockimg.com/file_thumbview_approve/1393183/2/stock-photo-1393183-person-holding-the-end-is-near-sign.jpg
Yeah, SD,
Or war is imminent and various polities are accumulating cash reserves.
Many reasons gold can sell off.
It will take capitol D deflation to put Bercrankers choppers in the air, so I look for it as the starting gun to the race to the end of all this.
That said;
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-12-07/hidden-dangers-gold
Free Bunkie Hunt
Those were the days. Sure was a long ride down to 2001 for those not quick on the draw though.
Anvil by Acme, Inc.
'Beep Beep'
Curious why they'd sell gold first, before stocks...until you realise it's only paper gold...
The traders at the Fed don't get margin calls
WATCH OUT BUBBLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE POPPINGGGGGGGGGG!!!
<----- Iam a gold muppet and my masters told me it never go down
Looks like you found muppet central.
Bitcoins are on SALE!!! MEGA will take over the world!!!!
Wake me when it get's under the $300 per ounce dollar cost average of my physical holdings. Gold is a safe store of value and purchasing power, period. What's that price in fiat relative to 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago again? Some folks really don't understand what weath preservation or "long-term" really means. Bloody sheep.
Got my first PM convert last week. I handed him a silver round and explained how in 1964 20 cents bought a gallon of gas and 20 cents pre-64 coins still buys a gallon of gas. 10 years it took to get one convert ROFLMFAO!!!
eta
After this week though it'll be 25 cents/gallon
By my reconing, there's another $150/oz of carrying costs to tack onto the cost of gold since it last traded @ $300. Have you taken that into consideration?
The only thing that one should consider is that I never have a problem exchanging it for the value of another's labor. I am not a trader, I actually produce something of real fucking value to society, food. I see no additional cost to keeping PM's in a safe along with the lead and brass. Have you taken this into consideration?
So why do you wnat to be woken up when gold is back to your $300 dollar cost average?
No particular reason, other than I will commense buying again.
You are missing one part:
"Buy low" you got that part right; "sell high" you have to work on for a bit. If you really think gold may get back to your buy point of $300, why would you continue to hold it?
No, you are missing one part. I am not a trader dipshit. The gold is for furture generations. I hold it to preserve purchasing power and provide a life raft in a sea of corruption for my future and that of my children. It worked for my Grandfather, and his, and his, and so-on.
When fraud becomes the status quo, possession is the law.
When you do a classical buy low-sell high trade, what is implied is that you start with money - a certain form of it and you end up with the same form of money, hopefully greater in value. During a monetary transition, however, you can actually do something that would be proper to call "buy low-buy low": first you buy low the thing you think will eventually become the new preferred money and then you use it to buy stuff while others are still short of this form of money.
Without looking at the price of gold in dollars tell me what an hour of labor is worth in gold and silver?
I'd do two hours of labor for an ounce of silver all day long.
I'd do a week of labor for an ounce of gold on an ongoing basis.
You need some horse stalls cleaned out?
I was late to this game, the bulk of my gold was bought @900, silver @18.
I'm actually holding off at the moment,hoping to get some below those prices.
I spoke to the coin dealer and he said he still has plenty, but I wonder how long that will last!
Something with buy, dip and female dogs.......
Damn, hell of a day to stop sniffing glue.
Comment of the day! +10
ROFL. +1350!
I just love Bloomberg, a bear market in 2 days.
Gold Extends Bear-Market Plunge Below $1,400
It almost feels like the whole world is trying too hard.
The hard metel is still s-s-s-s-safe right? I mean this is p-p-p-p-paper gold, right?
1392 / Its a hundred year war thingie!
If this goes down to 1291 we will have lost the Holy land!
1066
410
Keep going back in time like that and you will end up remonetizing gold against the will of the Bernanke.
Gold may be at 1367, but it feels more like 1984.
This makes no sense. The S&P is only down 9 handles... that's not margin call territory. This rationale doesn't pass the smell test.
it's early. Margin calls are definately coming.
You're not factoring in when you're leveraged 25-1, it only takes a 4% drop to completely wipe you out, and it's all leveraged far higher than 25-1.
This isn't even a 1% drop today
The Nikkei dropped like a bitch in the last hour of the day. I'd expect the same to happen in Europe and here.
This SO doesn't reek!
/sarc off
that could be me... had beans for breakfast...
Well, this should prove once and for all that the only safe haven is the debt the the Fed's cranking out at a rate of 3 billion/day. Who would have guessed there were so many funds still leveraged long on gold? Ah well, good to see the magicians have finally broken that damned correlation between gold price and money supply. Otherise one might be tempted to think that this selloff was a little bit manufactured.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE
So many paper promises, so little real assets or collateral.
Re: The Graph. Shit. My eyes are still watering.
"and Ben's buy-i-ing a stair-way to heaven"
"And I was there, buying that fucking dip, my grandchild"
Now go, take this ounce, and buy yourself a fine suit.
its going to be, take this ounce and buy a fucking lambo in the future.
On second thought - that ought to buy the entire store... Buy the store, then pick yourself out a suit for free..
All hell is breaking loose.
And the forces tear loose from the axis.
Please expand.
But, but, aren't there a gazillion paper gold shorts that will need to be covered by the banksters if equities start falling??
No matter ,if gold is down or up 50 $,100 $ or more daily,i will not sell any of my shine coins.They are actualy not mine.They belongs to my grandchildren.
Best words i have ever seen on ZH, may you and your family prosper.
Funny, now that you mention this, I realize that in my case it's exactly the opposite: I will not sell what very little PMs I have, because I inherited them from my grandfather. :)
I inherited some from my folks, who bought early in the seventies. They saw plenty of price fluctuations too, but never sold. Their stacks and coin collection saw them well into retirement and end of life. That's where I caught the bug.
We don't have kids or any heirs to speak of so by the time we're ready to go drink martinis on the jetty to await the incoming tide,I expect our stack will have seen us through life just fine.
Then adopt a kid and don't be so selfish !
Not everything that sounds possible is.
My gold is for my family too. They will be the ones selling them someday, not me.
Still a ways to go to reach ~1250, my downside target.
But I'm buying now......in case 1250 isn't hit.
Buying physical silver as well, lots of it, no problem.
PS. Remember, this happened in 2008. Where were gold and silver prices 1-2 years after the pm crash ended in the fall of that year? If you didn't have the balls to buy silver at 50+% off in 2008, your are NOW getting another chance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
where are you finding it? and what's the spread?
Silver: 10oz bars at 89 ents over spot (no need to get ripped off with abusive spreads on coins)
Gold: 1oz 2013 maples at $43 over spot
Are you not aware of the meaning of the word "where"?
As in WHERE ARE YOU GETTING SILVER THAT CHEAP, TELL ME YOU FUCKING ASSHOLE.
Your nuts would be pinched if you weren't a eunuch
Mr. 'tmosely':
You know, I just called my dealer to verify that inventory is not a problem. It's not....they are FULL of inventory.
I came back to this comment to give the original questioner, unwashedmass, the answer, and then I read your insulting comment.
So I'm not going to tell you now, because you sir are the asshole.
Unless of course you apologize, in which case, I'll tell you.
Have a good day.
Don't these attacks usually last at least a week? Is it likely we are going to see the efforts against gold stop after only 48 hours?
This is going to be very interesting.
Is it possible, one day, fiat currency is unacceptable to purchase precious metals?
If so, then what?
That is when fiat is deemed/recognized as being totally worthless. Anyone wanting to trade physical for paper (the paper's got all sort of neat sounding shit on it!)?
FIAT holders will try to get to the metal by bidding for other hard assets, then selling them for metal.
Which in turn drives FIAT prices up in each and every hard asset in the planet.
The end game is, of course, hyperinflation.
I'm surprised gold is down as much as it is while stocks are at all time highs. The question for me is do I cover the stock short and go long gold or wait for the 400+ point dump in /es and then flip to long gold (even if gold is much higher than it is right now) ugh.
you're suprised?
I was expecting everything to wash out together... maybe stocks are just slow to get moving but we are allready at my gold buy level and stocks are still adrift at all time highs... I thought I had it all figured out lol
wait for stocks to show up weakness.
If they follow the gold down then it is Great Depression coming then sell all go into cash
If stocks stay unaffected then it was just gold knock down and it is time to buy
I'm not the least bit surprised that the Maniacal Monetizers have done all they could to make sure gold is a bummer....I mean, are we really expecting sensibility to suddenly sweep out the central bankster overlords? Gonna take much more than some gold coins.
If physical is cheap, buy physical. Don't ever take leveraged long positions on paper gold. If you get it wrong, you lose paper, and if you get it right, then paper may be no longer relevant and you're stuck with paper profits.
If physical is expensive, short the paper. You can't lose.
This is just part of the planned transfer of wealth.
How valuable IS gold really? What's it actually needed for? Not much that I can think of.
So now the popular wisdom is that all the big wigs are taking down gold and piling into gold? All the gold in the world isn't enough to cover even a fraction of all the 'paper wealth' that's been created in just the last few years.
You are so right, it makes me sick.
"All the gold in the world isn't enough to cover even a fraction of all the 'paper wealth' that's been created in just the last few years."
Exactly, so either Paper instruments are overvalued and Gold is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued and paper is cheap.
Which do you suppose is true?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012...
Here comes the BOOM! Buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride!
After Lehman gold went to $1920. What is to come is so many magnitudes worse than Lehman. Lehman was a speed bump and ruse to start unsterilized exponentially increasing thin-air money creation and capture of bond, stock, and interest rate markets. The economy is collapsing, it is only being masked by trashing the cash.
TVA's power mix as of 2012 is 11 coal-powered plants, 29 hydroelectric dams, three nuclear power plants (with six operating reactors), nine simple cycle natural gas combustion turbine plants and five combined cycle gas plants. It could be replaced for less than one month's QE in USA.
The Prudhoe Bay-Valdez Alyeska Pipeline on Alaska's north slope cost (even with the worst goldbricking and embezzlement) around $8 billion. Two days of USA QE.
What have we wrought?
If you do not like gold, try silver.
1480 didn't hold. 1425 didn't hold, 1390 didn't hold.
$212 and widening.
1200, here we come!
Just as Jim Rogers intimated.
ScotiaMocatta is selling gold coins for nearly $200 over (paper)spot. As a bullion bank, shouldn't they be selling for the going market rate? (LOL).
Scotia Mocatta is a ripoff. Try RBC.
I am loving it. Getting ready to bug soon! Keep up the crash!
no shit, should i be prepping the BOV today? haha
Theory:
Does anybody know the condition of the carry trade in Japan? That was a real thorn in our sides in the late 90's when we were trying to get this gold bull started. I'm thinking that, with all this fresh new money being printed in Japan, they are reinvigorating the carry trade. They are using this cash to buy a huge chunk of shorted paper gold and then taking that cash and putting it against the Dow and other indices. This would explain both Gold getting killed recently as well as the run up in the equity markets.
Can anybody verify this?
Something doesn't feel right with this smackdown. There is something on the horizon ready to blow the F up.
I spent all my money last week buying, now I wish I had more money to mop up the spill here and get even more of the metals.
This is just plain crazy and doesnt make sense at all. I suspect we need to get ready to hang on to our shorts for what is next.
that is also possible. Often when we see this kind of volatility it is follwed a few days later by "X just announced it is facing margin calls and is in private consultation with the Fed".
Wouldn't that be great if X were GS this time around? There really would be dancing in the streets
X is JPM. Look at the gold inventory reports out of CME. They're the ones that were seeing the exodus of inventory (and I think HSBC if I remember right.)