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Marc Faber: "Something Will Break Very Badly"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

During an interview with The Globe and Mail, 'Gloom, Boom, and Doom's Marc Faber unleashed some awful truthiness about gold "I buy gold every month", real estate "bubble territory", and the likelihood of a crash in smoke-and-mirrors-like asset markets.

Q: Is it a good time to buy gold?

Faber: Nobody knows whether it’s a good time to buy gold or not…as I have repeatedly said in my reports, I buy gold every month and on the recent decline I bought more at $1,400 and I have an order at $1,300 and one at $1,200 and one at $1,100 an ounce. But they were not filled, just the $1,400.

 

I will never sell my gold, as I repeatedly told people. .... My maximum allocation to gold at present time is 25 per cent of assets.”

Q: Mr. Faber, you have indicated you believe there will be a market crash this summer. Can you tell us what might precede such an event?

Faber: “What was the trigger of the ‘87 crash when markets fell 21 per cent in one day? What was the trigger of the Nasdaq crash in 2000? What was the trigger of Japanese crash of 1989? What was trigger of 2007 crash that brought global stocks down 50 per cent?

 

We don’t know these things ahead of time, but something will always move markets up and something will always move them down.

 

I would guess at the present time, given markets from the 2009 lows have in many cases increased by as much as 100 per cent, that they are no longer very cheap. .... Something could come along, geopolitically or otherwise. I would be very careful being overweight equities.

 

"In the 40 years I’ve been working as an economist and investor, I have never seen such a disconnect between the asset market and the economic reality... Asset markets are in the sky and the economy of the ordinary people is in the dumps, where their real incomes adjusted for inflation are going down and asset markets are going up...

 

Something will break very bad."

 

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Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:06 | 3550037 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Citizens ?????

Ideas are dangerous.

Its safer to eat muck.

 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:56 | 3550234 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

There are many business opportunities associated with the meme: natural red-heads vs. natural blondes. 

Hmmmm,

- Ned

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:51 | 3550017 GVB
GVB's picture

me thinks :) me like 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:25 | 3549936 Truthiness
Truthiness's picture

NOT TRUE. We have leprachauns AND gold in Mobile, Alabama. Check it out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nda_OSWeyn8

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:13 | 3550047 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Our figurehead is a Leprachaun who wants even deeper integration with the Soviet....................so as to save us from the Soviet.

 

 

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xR-WzDoZGc

 

A real 

President would use the Anglo saxon word FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK.

 

No poetry please.....................WE ARE AT WAR.

 

Jesus wept.

 

In Cork he would be known as a Langer.

 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:46 | 3549814 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

The NY "boys" decided that stocks are the best hedge against inflation and hyper-inflation AND Zimbabwe-ization. So strap on yer parachutes, laddibucks cuz we're going fer s ride. Wonder how Sprottie is feeling being short stocks and long gold?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:24 | 3550293 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Not stocks - you need leverage.  So futures, options, LEAPS, etc.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:46 | 3549815 Room 101
Room 101's picture

That was informative ....NOT.  So they interview the guy and he is dollar cost averaging gold and is warning people about the stock market being overpriced.  I suppose there are people who actually pay this guy for his advice?

Having some FRNs in PMs is probably a good idea.  The problem is right now it's overpriced.  Like stocks. Perhaps not as overpriced, but still overpriced.  When you're going into a deflationary environment the best move is usually to be in cash and ready to rock.   

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:48 | 3549820 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Having some FRNs in PMs is probably a good idea.  The problem is right now it's overpriced.  Like stocks. Perhaps not as overpriced, but still overpriced.

 

overpriced?  relative to what?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:11 | 3550072 Room 101
Room 101's picture

Overpriced relative to what you would pay in FRNs for the same amount of Au or Ag in the foreseeable future. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:42 | 3550179 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

not by my foreseeing.  I foresee 1900, 2100, 2400 per ounce within just months and easily 1800/oz in weeks. To think prices will keep going lower from here is like standing in front of a speeding big-rig betting it will hit the breaks in time and not hit you. Stupid.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:04 | 3549878 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Room 101:

"... and he is dollar cost averaging gold and is warning people about the stock market being overpriced.  I suppose there are people who actually pay this guy for his advice?"

You presume that he is dca for some future profit?  I'd read that he's dca to distribute his fiatzoz not to move the market.  How does one determine overpriced?

"... usually ..."

Dude, ya gotta' do some homework really fast:

  • Look up Faber's track record (get an online sub to Barrons, then you can see how he has been discussing for years)
  • Determine whether this is a "normal" deflation situation, or is something that has never before been tried in the life of the universe.

Then again, I'm new to this financial magic,

- Ned

 

 

 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:41 | 3550173 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Nothing whatsoever here looks deflationary. Holding cash long-term is foolish. Holding cash for immediate use is forced by governments. That's the reason to have it.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:52 | 3549829 reader2010
reader2010's picture

it DONT matter No MOR. As long as the sheeple keep jumping the cliff,  pROgress simply continues. 

 

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7380/8724391332_bd09a75ff0_b.jpg

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:52 | 3549837 CoonT
CoonT's picture

So when you submit 14k in invoices to a company Friday morning, and you get a call saying the company just went into receivership Friday afternoon.......is this sub-contractor S.O.L. or is this just S.N.A.F.U. cleared up by Tuesday? Thoughts?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:40 | 3549982 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

Give the Feds a call,, explain your to big to fail.problem solved

Yes that shit has happened to me. It still hurts

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:06 | 3550256 CoonT
CoonT's picture

Too late to short Brenmar stock I guess, eh? If that's how it works; hell I'm about as ignorant about the world of finance as Bernanke and Krugman's love child...

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:50 | 3550012 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

S.O.L. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:09 | 3550068 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Hint: The lawyers win.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:19 | 3550098 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Look up the Creditanstalt event of 1931.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:57 | 3549838 Cdad
Cdad's picture

We are most definitely set up for an overnight "adjustment."  Japan's bond market is screaming its warning signal.  Even central bankers are hinting...trying to talk the market down off of the ledge.  Price action has been ugly...beneath the surface....very thin and violent trading...all disguised by the Roach Motel [SPY].  

I agree with Faber...I'd be careful being overweight things priced in HFT. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 17:53 | 3549844 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i love marc faber. the man knows the deal

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:00 | 3549862 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

i like marc faber but he is calling for a correction for over a year now :)))

just sayin' - eventually the market will crash thats for sure. but as long as the fed keeps printing the markets will not go down.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:21 | 3549929 aleph0
aleph0's picture

Don't blame Marc ..  it's the correction that's late , not him

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:36 | 3549970 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

Thats is not true.....Just because they are printing, does NOT by any means mean the markets will continue up. Commodities are falling! They are giving a better signal of the true economy. When there is a moment of clarity in the equities markets (which is soon, SPX 1667 IMHO), nothing else will matter except the speed of which everyone will try to exit. Remember, bubbles may pop with no warning, just a mere change in the direction of the wind could set it off, What is that? If I knew I certainly wouldn't be sharing it.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:33 | 3550315 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Commodities are falling???? Then why am I paying 40 cents more per gallon for gas than I was last month???? While oil inventories hit new record highs???

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 04:04 | 3550941 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Bubbles can pop with no warning, and they also can go on for years to insane nosebleed heights that everyone recognizes as insane (just like the Housing bubble did in the 2000s). There is no predicting, but there are some usual clues. Bubbles usually rise the fastest and give the greatest gains right before the end. The end usually comes when the market has run out of suckers to go "all in". This market is rising faster than before, but certainly hasn't run out of people to go all-in. In fact, the general public has largely stayed out, so far.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 05:24 | 3550996 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

yes, commodities are falling, that's the key.  If there were demand and the economy was recovering they would be going higher, but they're not.  The game of pump-the-market will continue for a while then the SHTF and then you'll see the real collapse, like Japan style.  IMO

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:54 | 3550023 Element
Element's picture

Counterparties still exist, if they eliminate those (they're working on it), we'll be fine.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:22 | 3549930 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

God: "Noah?!"

Noah: "Yes God?"

God: "Go and build a guillotine, the time is near."

Noah: "Not an ark?!"

God: "Not this time Noah."

                 hujel

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:22 | 3549931 W T F II
W T F II's picture

Faber is increasingly kook-assed.

He will not imagine a 'third way', whereby there is a new currency regime, pre-planned, and "THIS" is a pre-unwind smokescreen foisted on the current reality until "The Collaborators" are ready to unleash it. In that scenario, metals are in for the crapper before the facts are revealed.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:38 | 3550164 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

he doesn't need to. Jim Rickards has voiced his points on this & Faber will adjust accordingly.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:49 | 3550356 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I've never seen Faber ever go there.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:31 | 3549955 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Non-Sequitor... When is Bob English of ZH going to "make an honest woman" out of Lauren Lyster?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENA7jtCt0Vw

 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:37 | 3550160 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

How long you been sleeping, Rip Van Winkle? Bob English is now a producer with Perianne Boring http://youtube.com/theprimeinterest

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 13:59 | 3551682 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

When they marry her surname will be English-Boring. Priceless!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:45 | 3549998 AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

I will never sell my gold

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:55 | 3550028 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Then what's the point, if you don't have a sales or swap point?  To live up to your name?  Leave it to ungrateful whelps, who will sell it and have a good time?  Leave it to the Church or Temple?

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:48 | 3550006 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

You know what? Either you people start identifying the culprits who need to be prosecuted, or give it up. They are all Jews.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:09 | 3550069 kito
kito's picture

stfu hudson........

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:06 | 3550397 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Ignorance is bliss!

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:56 | 3550756 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

They are not all Jews. But most of them are Zionists. Discerment.................

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 17:29 | 3552118 optimator
optimator's picture

And remember, if you can't talk about someone they own you.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 18:56 | 3550029 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

In the long run... virtually all monetary forecasts come about. Gold prices will fall, gold prices will rise.

I like Brent Johnson's (Santiago Capital) allocation in  Cash, Fixed Income, Equities, Real Estate and Gold.  25% in gold/PM seems reasonable, but I'd want to hold half of it in bullion, half in options.  I also like Faber's plan to buy at key price levels.

As long as the Fed keeps printing, the markets will be proped up, and I'll wager that more will be made in the Markets than in PM.  Unless you're a PM dealer -- then it's "always a good time to buy", just like in real estate.  ZH might be smarter than Bernanke, but he is stronger.  I'd have to hedge in favor of playing by Ben's rules a little longer.

TGIF... Pizza & beer tonight.

 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:34 | 3550317 Thisson
Thisson's picture

It is not a given that markets will be propped up continually simply due to Fed printing.  Once the market becomes cognizant that Ben has to buy ALL the bonds (becaue that's how price floors work) the USD has no more credibility and a scramble for the exits (gold) at any price (in dollars).  This is why they keep jawboning about ending QE.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:54 | 3550937 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

It is not just Ben anymore. That is the important thing to understand. The BOJ is printing nearly as much, and the Yen devaluation is forcing every CB in the world to join the party. The ECB will be next when Germany can't take it any more. The Fed could actually stop QE and the overall global printing would still accelerate.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:23 | 3550116 malek
malek's picture

Interesting to know.

My maximum allocation to physical gold is 33% of assets. Which by the way is in line with Peter Schiff's basic recommendation.
And I'm contemplating to slowly bump this to 40%...

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:29 | 3550126 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Faber is entirely correct, as are most at ZH who have been around for more than 2yrs anticipating a gigantic shitstorm in the economy and financial system. We're all scratching various body parts wondering how the hell it can be so resilient,  and trying to rationalise a system so corrupt and broken, dare I say fucked for want of a better description,  that hours and hours have been devoted to the inspection of every freshly laid turd of information to come our way from various pundits and government data fudges.

The first conclusion I have come to is that we're not wrong. If the FRN's irresponsible printing and systemic corruption (The new chairman of the SEC, Mary Joe White spent her career defending Jamie Dimon and the squids for fucks sake. Does nobody in the US understand the meaning of Conflict of Interest any more? ) that consists of GS and JPM alumni in a perpetual swapping of key positions in governments occurred anywhere else in any other nation, we would all call it what it is : a laughably transparent banana republic run by morons and criminal gangs. But since it's the USA, with the world's highest GDP and the proponents of its economic policies have PhDs and Nobel prizes, we tend to defer our instinctive reactions with doubts.

Imo, it's a critical mistake to think the, "Maybe the guys at the top know something I can't fathom", or "Maybe they are just doing this for our own good and the good of the nation", or "They must have some secret info that nobody else has and they are acting on them". Voodo ninja intelligence bullshit that some people imagine because they don't want to believe that the people at the very top are as clueless and human as they are. We always imagine our rulers to be better than us, assigning such nonsense as "divine right", and "charisma" to megalomaniacal dumb arseholes with a talent for oration that appeals to the lowest common denominator. 

Sorry.  I digress. What I really wanted to post was how they are able to manipulate and hoodwink people into assigning value to toilet paper, how market reactionary behaviour can be pushed and pulled, and how mass delusions can be induced easily by presenting stimuli and key linguistic programs. It's far too long, but you can figure it out for yourself if you understand the importance behind human psychology.  There are others, but specifically the Solomon Asch experiments on conformity and Stanley Milgram's on obedience to authority are the ones to start your understanding of how behavioural science works. I may do a detailed piece, but I don't want to bore anyone to death and this post, I am sure you'll agree has gone on long enough. Besides, it is one of these things that seems like bullshit until you do your own research.

We're not wrong on the data nor the fundamentals. We are simply living in a world of mass delusions backed by fear, hope, and patriotic fervour. As it is often said on ZH, this could take awhile or something could break tomorrow. 

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:45 | 3550192 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

I saw the real estate market go from a few hundred houses for sale in our small village, with 8-9% interst rates WITH 20% down and limits around 36% of income for mortgage/insurance/propertt taxes to NINJA - no anything down, no qualifications, interest only.   I was waiting for the housing bubble to explode for a decade but it kept going......   any person with a ahit of common sense could tell things wer at absurd levels and made no sense but it kept going....

When you've got government willing to inject trillions into an economy, you can keep bubbles going for a ridiculously long time.

We've been going from bubble to bubbkle to bubble since the fundamentals of our economy fell apart in the 70's.  Each bubble has been pushed farther than the last and now we're entering 'end gsame' where there's no real way out without massive carnage.  You've got trillions in worthless assets carried on the books in pretend-its-real land.

No telling how long it can last.  Hell, the ultimate 'diversion' will be WWIII - wouldn't be surprised.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:57 | 3550235 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

It won't be a diversion, it will be their excuse.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:20 | 3550283 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Mofos built the pyramids block by block (assuming no aliens or fossil fuels) 

'Slaves' who would have necessarily outnumbered their 'masters'

Once we built stone monuments for all of history

Now we build toxic monuments for all of eternity 

 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:51 | 3550936 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

WW III won't be a diversion. It is a natural consequence of the final bubble blowout, just as WW II was the natural consequence of the Great Depression.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:38 | 3550326 Thisson
Thisson's picture

The leaders and policymakers are clearly idiots.  Look at their public statements: "the subprime crisis has been contained", "while the music plays you must continue dancing", etc.  And look at the heads of these firms, who didn't even know they had "liquidity puts" in their contracts, putting the entire firm at risk.  Jimmy Cayne had no idea Bear Stears was going under - he was at a bridge tournament.  Same with Dick Fuld at Lehman - caught completely off guard.  If the head of an investment bank can't see how their own firm is in danger when they possess superior (and inside) information compared to the public, how are any of them in any position to gauge the health of the economy at large?  They're MORONS.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:46 | 3550881 Bear
Bear's picture

They are not morons ... these are intelligent individuals who knew and planned well for the collapse of their companies. Just as John Corzine walks away with pockets stuffed with cash, Cayne and Fuld are still billionaires. They are not morons and should all be incarcerated for their wicked planning.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:36 | 3550736 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Its still early YHC.  This could go on for another 10 years.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:47 | 3550932 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

It seems too bubbly to me to go on 10 more years (Junk bonds <5% WTF??). Another year or two or three or four, perhaps, but not 10. Bubbles always rise the fastest right before they pop, so the final blowoff should be a doozy. The biggest gains will be right before the end. Just don't be late getting out.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:06 | 3551235 Pareto
Pareto's picture

For sure.  I agree.  Except that as soon as you say "high yield junk is way over priced", or, "interest rates have to rise", or whatever, then expectations and adjustments are made, or, the FED policy changes, or, whatever.  The probability of an "event" diminishes the more people know and react about it before it happens.  And as long as people are committed to the status quo, this could go on for a long while.  Longer than any of us think, IMO.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 06:48 | 3551043 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

You could be right, but I don't know. All my instincts tell me that the system is so broken it has never been as obvious to the casual observer as now, and that was the point of the post. A fraud,  by nature must be secret to work, and once exposed arouses immediate rejection. 

What interests me is how mass delusions in the safety of paper and manipulations are successfully done by those who control the dissemination of information in governments and the media. We may all believe that we're smart enough to see through it, but in reality most can't.  There are very powerful tools in behavioural science which need to be understood by everyone if we want to understand how criminals have gotten control of the money supply, our laws, and our lives. 

Someone far more eloquent should fo a piece on this.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 14:25 | 3551558 malek
malek's picture

No way.

It could go on for 4 more years or so, and if they pull all stops (last remnants of rule of law etc.) maybe 7 years.

But then it will either pop, or the then reached complete totalitarian system will run out of other peoples' assets.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:30 | 3550133 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Ordinary people no longer have much influence over equity markets anyway. The big players control the vast majority of these assets. Therefore, only they will be able to cash out before the rest of us. But frankly little has changed in this regard, even over the last 10 years.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:44 | 3550930 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

You can always cash out of your stocks early. Just don't try to get out 1 millisecond late, unless you are a big boy.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 19:31 | 3550134 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Ordinary people no longer have much influence over equity markets anyway. The big players control the vast majority of these assets. Therefore, only they will be able to cash out before the rest of us. But frankly little has changed in this regard, even over the last 10 years.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:05 | 3550250 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Something will break very bad

Yeah, a certain central banker's neck if I had my wish.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:12 | 3550268 They trynna cat...
They trynna catch me ridin dirty's picture

"Asset markets are in the sky and the economy of the ordinary people is in the dumps..."

Given this reality, once the bubbles pop and the asset markets are brought down to their proper levels, while it is going to be miserable for a few years, things shouldn't get TOO bad while the economy restructures provided that farmers keep farming and other members of the crucial productive class keep producing.

Where the real danger lies is that most of America's cities are liable to wind up resembling Mogadishu due to the fact that certain demographics will be incapable of understanding why their EBT cards no longer allow them to stuff their faces with empty calories every day.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 20:32 | 3550312 grunk
grunk's picture

It's the "Deer Hunter," fall of Saigon, Russian Roulette scene.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:12 | 3550416 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

When the SHTF you will hear the sound of a million chainsaws warming up,dropping big trees across the roads of America.

City-dwellers,you are on your own.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 22:47 | 3550652 kurt
kurt's picture

Thanks,

Nice of you to provide dry wood for us when we need it. When you come into town looking for a can of beans after you've stripped the countryside, "say hello to my little friend."

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 21:47 | 3550512 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Ummm....in case you missed it we are ALL niggers now. Oh except you in the fashion section...ha.

Fri, 05/10/2013 - 23:52 | 3550752 Pareto
Pareto's picture

For all the Zh'ers shitting all over Marc Faber et al because of their inaccurate assays of time and therefore timing, lets see something better from you.  Nobody has a bead on this.  Nobody.  So why do we shit on those that try and put it together?  What's important is that we recognize the problem and the insanity.  I've heard great things about Zero Hedge on other sites and especially the blog.  That will change, however, if people don't start exercising judgement and a little thought to some discretion about those that contribute articles and such.  Especially since I can virtually gurantee those providing the cheap critiques and character assasinations are incapable of contributing anything better EVER.  So.  Smarten the fuck up.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 00:17 | 3550787 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Well at least I don't make a living pretending to know. So in my club, I can shit all over Marc Faber whenever the fuck I please.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 02:02 | 3550860 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Oh thats right.  The retard club.  Kinda place where, fuck, anything goes except intelligence.  Know this.  Until your "club" makes as much money as Faber does, your club and everyone in it remains irrelevant.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:10 | 3551240 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Let me put it differently so you can understand it.

There are three types of snake oil peddlers,

“Long beta” peddlers like Larry Fink who always talk bullish so people buy their product,

“Alpha” peddlers like John Paulson who talk bearish so people think they are cautious and pay their high fees,

No-skin-in-the-game/Consulting peddlers who talk outlandish views to get people to buy their newsletter.

None of them have much of a clue what’s gonna happen next.

My criticism of Marc Faber is that he belongs into either or even both of the two latter categories.

My criticism of you is that you assume Zerohedgers have no better views than him. How would you know, do you subscribe to all of our posts, tweets etc?

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 10:46 | 3551275 Pareto
Pareto's picture

My criticism of you is that you assume Zerohedgers have no better views than him. How would you know, do you subscribe to all of our posts, tweets etc?

 

Indeed.  The world according to Mythical Fish.  Where do I subscribe? The only thing you have accomplished is to demonstrate precisely that you offer nothing.  Your last three posts offer nothing other than the unique criticism how EVERYBODY else has got it wrong and that therefore, they are an ass.  Holy fuck I feel so much more informed!  There have been several fund managers over the last few days taking positions in gold.  Their thesis (right or wrong), is that gold remains the best currency hedge in a world of debasement.  But, they also beleive the market to continue to rise and yields to fall further.  Its actually a similar thesis to Faber.  They don't know when, don't know what, but, they are making a call based on assumptions about debt, GDP, and so on.  You going to character bash them when their calls don't work out?  Or how about Bass's short yen call.  Only yesterday did that call really materialize for him, and could go the other way because EVERYBODY  and their dog believe the Yen is done.  You gonna bash Bass if/when this trade turns on him?  My assumption is not that ZH'ers do not have better views.  My assumption is that there are some ZH'ers have no views at all - just criticisms that stand on pegged legs.  And yours would be one of them.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 23:09 | 3552841 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Okay fair enough. I do think that the comments section is meant for comments like "boo" and "bravo" as well - to show the Tylers what kind of people we want to hear from more, or less. For Marc Faber, as he is now spamming my google ads, it would be "less" in my case. I guess that point came across.

As far as the discussion is concerned (will there be a SHTF market event this summer, is it safe to buy gold) i have actually commented on ZH before what I think.

Here it goes: Fiat money in the bank, at least the part exceeding transactional needs and insured threshold, is not a good way to be 'on the sidelines' in. Stocks and real estate are frothy, and to be avoided (which I think even the buy side agrees on by now, they just got no choice). Gold therefore does look attractive, at least if you can keep it safely (i.e. live in a secure / burglary free society with a liquid physical gold market - Vietnam might be a better place to live than the US in that respect). However, the fact that gold is held mainly by 'unsavoury' parties according to the so called West (i.e. dictators, oligarchs, Asians), it will be exposed to attempts at price manipulation.

Here is my solution: Do buy physical gold, maybe for 50% of your net worth. To protect its buying power, you buy in-the-money GC (comex) puts for an equal amount, right now a 1500 December put (for 100Oz per contract) is not a bad place to start. If gold prices on Comex falls, you get dollars that you can convert to more gold, preserving the purchasing power of your gold, if fiat breaks, you will participate in the upside (even if Comex fails) because you hold the gold and your puts just expire worthless.

This approach works well for me, it may not work for you if you think the physical gold in your possession is at greater risk of being stolen than fiat in the bank (or gold in someone else's vault), or if you expect gold to trade up a little, but not much, i.e. in the 1450-1550 range until end November you are better off without the put.

Sun, 05/12/2013 - 00:57 | 3553017 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Better.  And, didn't know about the spamming.  Interesting approach to protecting (or rather accumulating) gold in a down market with somebody else's money.  Long physical, short paper.  I like it.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 00:15 | 3550782 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

"The root of all superstition is that men observe when a thing hits, but not when it misses." - Francis Bacon

Well guess what Marc Faber, I do observe when a thing misses. So get the hell out of here, because even if you get next week’s football scores and lottery right, it wouldn’t make up for all the tried and failed attempts to call a top on MSM so far.

 

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 03:39 | 3550924 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

All the central banks (except the ECB) are pumping right now, and the ECB will soon join the party, so I don't expect something to break until oil prices pop. Of course, an oil pop could happen right out of the blue at any time.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 04:52 | 3550971 Applepie
Applepie's picture

I'm loving the Fed right now.....cheap gold ......yay.....keep it coming. And make no mistake it is very cheap. Now is the time to convert dollars to gold !!!!!! Now if there was any actual physical around that would be even better...

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 06:40 | 3551037 Balvan
Balvan's picture

Marc Faber - more old and senile version of Schiff.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 07:31 | 3551074 robochess
robochess's picture

and richer, smarter, more important, and more elequent than you.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 07:35 | 3551080 BlackVoid
BlackVoid's picture

JUST BREAK ALREADY

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 08:37 | 3551144 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Ah, ah. Good one.

This guy is an 'american'.

He is an expert. In 'american' economics, it means he made his bucks out of his expertise.

Conclusion: something big must happen.

If it does not, it means that all this man's expertise is nothing but hogwash. Therefore that his bucks came from hogwash.

It cant be.

So something big must happen.

The way 'americans' self justify themselves.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 17:21 | 3552108 optimator
optimator's picture

An  "EXPERT" is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows everything about nothing.

Sat, 05/18/2013 - 06:40 | 3575452 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

An "expert" is any guy who lives more than 20 miles outside town.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 13:11 | 3551565 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

[analyzing drug shipment]
Chemist: Blast off: one-eight-oh. Two hundred: Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval. Two ten: U.S. Government certified. Two twenty: lunar trajectory, junk of the month club, sirloin steak. Two thirty: Grade A poison. Absolute dynamite. Eighty-nine percent pure junk. Best I've ever seen. If the rest is like this, you'll be dealing on this load for two years.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 14:48 | 3551802 polo007
polo007's picture

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

http://fs1.hidemyass.com/download/h8Cqx/1s3nkvl62fipb7krsefh0bajr1

Easy Fed policy: too much of a good thing

The costs of easy Fed policy

Fed policy is aimed at stimulating economic activity, which involves incentivizing households, businesses and investors to take more risk. Investors have obliged, resulting in low rates, tight credit and mortgage spreads, and new all-time highs for major stock indices. But some worry the Fed is causing a dangerous search for yield that could lead to new asset bubbles and financial instability. Our assessment is that Fed policy has not led to an increase in systemic risk.

Risk-taking is good; systemic risk is bad

This piece provides a guide for monitoring financial stability and the linkages between asset markets, financial institutions and the real economy. We believe the ultimate question is whether the Fed’s policies have increased systemic risk.

This depends on the following, which we address in the note:

- Do market valuations appear overstretched and are there signs of asset
bubbles forming?

- Is there an increase in leverage in the market or an overreliance on short term funding? Would systemically important institutions be at risk of failure?

- How are the beneficiaries of easy credit using the proceeds? Are they using debt to fund risky investments, buy homes they can't afford or go on a consumption spree? Or is issuance going toward improving their balance sheets and lowering their vulnerably to the eventual rise in interest rates?

Risk transfer underway, but systemic concerns muted

We argue that Fed policies have encouraged a transfer of risk from borrowers (indebted households and corporations) to creditors (investors) who are willing to accept lower risk premiums. Increased real money participation in credit markets mitigates the systemic implications of this risk transfer. Corporate and household balance sheets are healthier, thanks in part to easy Fed policy, but signs of increased appetite for leverage in the corporate sector bear close monitoring.

Fed to stay the course

Our survey of financial conditions and systemic risk supports our base case that the Fed will maintain its asset purchase program at the current pace of $85bn/month through March 2014, followed by a 6-8 month tapering period.

QE will limit the upside in yields

The potential for a sizable rise in yields will be limited if the Fed maintains QE well into next year as we expect. We forecast a gradual rise in 10y rates by year-end.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 18:15 | 3552186 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Frankly I find the ZH racism policy racist. Where do I report TD?

Because its not much of a fight club when the nanny state runs it.

 

I came here to ZH and learned a ton about how a certain religion controls banking, media, how they wrangled a country out of the end of WWII. Any of those discussions could now run afoul of the policy.

Its not my problem that some religion was hard done to for 2000 years. Why is that my problem? My grandfather drove a fire truck in London in WWI and while he was saving people his house was bombed and he lost my grandmother. But ZH has become like that Fawlty Towers piece "don't mention the Germans"

Why not let other users define disparaging by using the ignore function?

 

ZH has peaked. Time for the fibonacci retracement.

 

Alex Jones's site now has more utility than  ZH and that's saying alot. At least there they don't ban people for pointing out how some JuJubes fucked things up. 

There ae freer places on the internet than ZH.

Its a good thing the web has lots of alternatives to ZH.

Sat, 05/11/2013 - 19:06 | 3552249 dvfco
dvfco's picture

Seriously, I hadn't noticed that and I read the posts and comments to several articles every day.  I've seen more antisemitism here (as well as anti-everything-else-ism) as almost anywhere on the web.  If it's being edited out in cases, I'd be surprised.

The point isn't whether or not one agrees or is offended with the words someone writes, it is that they have the right to write or say whatever they want.  It's kinda like the world a lot of grew up in, pre 1980s.

I thought this was one of the last stomping grounds for intelligent essays combined with brutally honest and sometimes brutally cruel comments all being treated equally.

I'm not saying this as a /sarc.  If' I'm missing something, let me know.  I love this site because I can say I love Israel and the way Israeli's care for their non-Jewish countrymen.  Or, I can say I hate hebes and how they are fucking everyone worse than those who found themselves in a Warsaw ghetto in the early 1940s where fucked.  Both seem acceptable here.  What's up?

Maybe you need a better term than JuJubees?  Why don't you try Wej's, 539ers, or Chipmunks?  Sometimes, you can even call them Canadians and add a (wink) and we'd get what you were getting at.  At least, it seems the proper way to hold a conversation in a public area.  It's so much easier to say, "God, I really hate those Canadians."  Nobody ever bats an eye.

 

Sat, 05/18/2013 - 06:37 | 3575450 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Man, political commisars and trolls are trying to burn this place!

I have never seen any direct "anti-semitism" as such here. Maybe a few bigots get through.

Anti-Zionism? Yes. Zionism is a political movement.

Anti-Khazarism? Yes. There is a select group, we know who they are, who have hijacked "Judaism" for their own nefarious means.

Plus, with the Tylers' servers in Europe, where there are strong "antisemitism" laws becasue of NAZI Germany, the Tylers' have to bear in mind Swiss legalisms.

Do not feed trolls.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!