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Grant Williams: "Do The Math!"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a masterclass of what is 'really' going on in the world (as opposed to what we are told/spoon-fed on a daily basis), Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhhmm infamy) provides a must-watch presentation. Starting from the premise (unusual in this day and age) that the laws of mathematics are inviolable ("if it makes no sense, it is nonsense"), the Aussie investment manager sets out his own set of philosophical 'problems' that the world of 'markets' seems incapable of grasping. In a chart-filled extravaganza, Williams ranges from "Problem 1: If the global economy is stalling, Europe is in recession, China is slowing and growth is seemingly impossible to generate, what are equity markets doing at all-time highs?" to "Problem 7: The Gold Price and The Price of Gold are mutually exclusive" leaving the participant questioning everything Bob Pisani would have us believe warning in conclusion that gold is critical and "beware suppressed volatility."


07:26 Williams' Problem 1: If the global economy is stalling, Europe is in recession, China is slowing and growth is seemingly impossible to generate, what are equity markets doing at all-time highs?

 

 

16:24 Williams' Problem 2: If Chinese manufacturing has stalled, demand for raw materials is slumping, imports and exports are declining, and Chinese power consumption is falling, how is China's GDP growing at 7.7%

 

 

20:40 Williams Problem 3: France!?

 

 

33:21 Williams' Problem 4: If honesty is the best policy, then is dishonest the second best policy?

 

33:25 Williams' Problem 5: If there were no sponges living in the oceans, would the oceans be deeper?

 

33:30 Williams' Problem 6: Paul Krugman? Really?

 

33:35 Williams' Problem 7: The Gold Price and The Price of Gold are mutually exclusive

 

 

36:45 Summary

It's a holiday weekend, grab the iPad (and 2 beers), sit in the lawn-chair and watch/listen - time extremely well spent...


 

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Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:59 | 3600018 Seer
Seer's picture

A better focus than "zero loopholes" would be that one has BIGGER guns, because when it really comes down to it legal contracts are going to be shit (I think history pretty much proves this).

Even central banks themselves don't trust one-another, which is why a LOT of gold is being repatriated.  I'm thinking that CBs likely know that a lack of loopholes doesn't offer up any magic shield.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:15 | 3600130 ponzisaurus
ponzisaurus's picture

Robot vs bioeugenic wars, coming soon to a theatre (pun intended) near you.  My money is on the organics.   Nukes too wasteful of resources, will only be used as a last resort.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:37 | 3600072 Hulk
Hulk's picture

The perth mint is infested  with funnel web spiders and therefore taking delivery is extremely dangerous.

So they are out...

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:45 | 3600088 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

OT Hulk : been asking around the permie community on how to do a Savory style mob grazing on small acreage.   best answer i could find was that one has to do a lot of experimentation and observation with less land, but that it's best to make each paddock the size to get a 60%/40% trampled every 3 days and then leave it fallow to give it time to grow back.   better to start with less animals and make paddocks smaller than have too many animals and risk burning out your pastures.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:02 | 3600108 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I learned the hard way about over grazing a small pasture. The law of the second bite must be strictly adhered too. Don't allow a second bite during the exponential growth phase,which is 2 to 3 weeks if the rainfall is good...

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:42 | 3600736 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

excellent tip, thanks

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 12:36 | 3601274 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Best of luck to you! 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:59 | 3600195 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Much too geographically close to China.

Also, if your fiat and plastic cards don't work, how are you going to get there?

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 01:45 | 3600615 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Why not?  

Well, that's easy.  You can bribe a border guard with a coin, or maybe a nice watch, but they don't take American Express.

Anything paper leaves a paper trail, foreign or not, and those who have even a little smidgeon of power won't risk it if there's a chance the boss will find out- the folks at the Perth Mint could be the most honest folks in the world, but if you can't get to them, you're fucked regardless.

It defeats the purpose of a precious metal hedge- you don't have to hold every cent in physical metal, but you'd better have enough to buy your way to your foreign vault in your pockets if you do not.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 02:12 | 3600623 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:33 | 3599894 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The price of gold is what ever the hell you have to pay to obtain it.....pretty much right.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:37 | 3599903 robochess
robochess's picture

The great mathematician and theologian Homer Simpson says his brain hurts now and it's time for a Duff's.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:38 | 3599904 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Math is different this time ...

1 + 1 = 1

1 + -1 = 1

We're no. 1 ...

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:04 | 3599948 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

1 set of freightcars + another set of freightcars = 1 longer set of freightcars.

1 + 1 = 1.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:11 | 3600034 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

1+1 = Anything you want it to be between 0 and 2.  What, you never heard of Vectors?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:23 | 3600052 Seer
Mon, 05/27/2013 - 10:44 | 3601030 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

What ? ! ? ! ... Who ? ! ? ! ?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:42 | 3599912 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

wouldn't be the first time the CB'ers put a verbal scare that caused an....is it an entire country this time?...to blow up. obviously "that's why they put the Central Bank in Washington DC." ah the old days where there was a gold standard "and the Federal Reserve was Wall Street." (obviously that was true during World War 1 AND even 2 as well since the amount of resources included energy to prosecute a successful war effort was truly staggering. the Fed worked for the Banks back then as well. true now though? obviously not. nor has it been for decades. seems to me the Fed works for the deal makers now...."and the economy at large"-meaning the Government-- if they were to say something crazy like..."we've stopped the asset purchase program" i think you'd see a whole new definition of "wilding" on Wall Street and world markets in general. i just don't buy it.)

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:56 | 3600015 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

  "wilding" Now were talking.

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 23:39 | 3600554 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

well, it is the location of Central Park. "this is just the financial variant." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zid9eiYwCis

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3599916 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Are you the voice of the GEICO gecko?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:52 | 3599920 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

At this point you can believe one of two things:

 

1) The REAL US Economy just hasn't caught up with the Stock Market YET but it will soon.

or

2) The stock market is delusional and will crash.

 

I am going to bet on number two.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 14:53 | 3599923 Argos
Argos's picture

Wonderful presentation. 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:15 | 3600131 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes.

Sometimes simply asking the naive questions is quite effective.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:37 | 3600157 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

The last 15 minutes on gold was tremendous. I sometimes wonder how any rational and sane person could listen to that and still be bearish on gold?

Almost incomprehensible events we are witnessing in this sector. 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:05 | 3599951 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Problem No 8: If the world's economies are all sinking at the same time, does this make the world more stable?

Problem No 9: Is the Chinese rate of growth correct except for the position of the decimal point?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:06 | 3599955 Wraithlord
Wraithlord's picture

Slightly off topic, but it looks like he's got the slides for Hilbert's problem 3 and problem 8 mixed...

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:22 | 3599981 Escapedgoat
Escapedgoat's picture

Well!!  I grabbed a bottle of white plonk (French), Greek feta and Spanish olives with some Italian Pesto and salami and thoroughly enjoyed the show. Oh and I hope that as well as Germany, .......Brussels is SCREWED.

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:31 | 3599993 johnlaw1971
johnlaw1971's picture

The Perth Mint is likely running a fractional reserve bullion scheme, which was nearly exposed during the 2008 supply crunch. Would not like to be holding their paper when the reset comes

Check out the links below:

http://silverstockreport.com/2008/perth7.html

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/perth-to-montreal

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/perth-mint-revisited-you-asked-for-it-you-...

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:21 | 3600046 longwind
longwind's picture

Thanks for the great info johnlaw, and to the buggers above as well. btw I see on the Perth Mint's website that they recognize three levels of crisis, and recommend that unallocated buyers become allocated at level 2, and take delivery at level 3. But the levels are based on feelings, not mathematics, so I can't deduce precisely when my hypothecated foolsgold loses value. Clearly, that's the best reason for sleeping with it. I'm getting it again . . .

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:33 | 3599994 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

WTF!!!!1!! I'm no mathemetician, but...

 

Where the fuck did -x come from? (As in 10x-x)

 

9x = 9*0.999... = 8.999...91

 

0.999... =/= 1

 

If x=2, you could still say, 9x=9, => x=1

 

Smoke n mirrors maths. Ironically.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:44 | 3600086 Snoopy the Economist
Snoopy the Economist's picture

What are you asking about '-x'? He proofed the following.

1/3 = 0.333

and now converting 1/3 to 1 he does

(3) * 1/3 = (3) * 0.333 which is 1 = 0.999

This was beautififully demonstrated. One thing you have to realize is that the 0.999 is actually 0.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:02 | 3600201 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

All my Gold and Silver are 0.999

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 22:43 | 3600509 Mrs. Haggy
Mrs. Haggy's picture

My Canadian is even .9999.  

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:11 | 3600713 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Heh heh.......showoff.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 11:32 | 3601139 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Excellent!  So you're not a total Loonie or Twonie? 

I prefer my Maple Leafs in silver or gold -- not the blue & white of the Maple Laughs.  You know, the sports team that always manages to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"?  ;-)

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:36 | 3599997 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Enjoyable presentation... Not a great deal new... but it is all in one place and the charts are pretty... Relevant too which is better...

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:55 | 3600380 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Hat tip to Jesse's Cafe American for some of the charts used in the presentation. 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:49 | 3600010 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

What of the next crop of economists/ financial managers from the elite/ middle road universities? Those textbook /courses / lectures cannot be taken seriously. Must be amussing sitting in on those classes and hearing answers that make any sense of reality.

Are these students striving to take their places ( if any recruitment is available ) in such a corrupt environment? Sad!!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 15:58 | 3600017 terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

absolutely spot on best expo ever on the gold price ever..top banana

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:00 | 3600020 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

The improbability of an 8 sigma deviation in gold prices simply means that the market is not a uniform distribution.  It is not random, therefore, it is a manipulated market. In other words the 8 sigma deviation is simply a set of greasy fingerprints at the scene of the crime.  The question is, who dunnit?  Who had motive, means and opportunity?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:01 | 3600024 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Slightly off topic but on the topic of Pisani and gold and HSBC vault

When Pisani visits London and goes to the HSBC gold vault, it appears, based on the 2 main video clips, that the whole gig was filmed in one afternoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL84posLyFQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000043030

This is because a) he is wearing the same tie in all locations, i.e. HSBC Canary Wharf, in the van, in the vault and in the World Gold Council offices, on the Waterloo Bridge and b) at the end he says it was an interesting afternoon.

Assuming he started in Canary Wharf, Pisani and his crew do a few shots and an interview then get in the supposedly blacked out van.

If you look at both long videos (linked above) you will see one shot taken from a moving vehicle going west on Lower Thames Street. Its an angled camera shot when they are going under a few walkway bridges.

Then he is in the vault.

Another shot has him standing on Waterloo Bridge.

Then there is also an interview of Pisani at the World Gold Council offices on Fleet Street.

So, in the same afternoon, Pisani and crew were able to go to Canary Wharf, travel back west along Lower Thames Street, go to the HSBC vault, visit Fleet Street, and film some footage on Waterloo Bridge. For
those who know this part of London well, then comsider the following:

Before HSBC moved to Canary Wharf, their offices were strung out along both Lower and Upper Thames streets. The former Republic National Bank was also adjacent just near Monument. As well as the big glass HQ on lower thames street near Billingsgate, HSBC occupied buildings at the Thames Exchange and Vintners Place beside each other on Queen Anne Street.

So Pisani and crew in my view did as follows. Went to Canary Wharf. Then got in van. It was blacked out for effect but during a part of the drive while the front of the van was open, hence the lower thames st shot. Vault os on either lower or upper thames street. After vault, Pisani went to Fleet Street to WGC, then up on to Waterloo Bridge.

Vault could be between Thames Exchange and Vintners Place under Queen Anne Place or under Vintners Place (deep basement there). Alternatively it could be under the old HQ glass building on lower thames street. Just look at a map and plot all the places Pisani visited that afternoon, and take into account the former HSBC buildings and the one way traffic and access routes on and off of thames street, fleet st, embankment etc.

Incidently, when Pisani and co drove to Fleet st, this is very near the JP Morgan vault at Tudor/Carmelite St. It would be ironic if both JPM and HSBC vaults are in same place, but I don't put much credence in that theory at the moment.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:18 | 3600043 Seer
Seer's picture

"This is because a) he is wearing the same tie in all locations"

Maybe he's a guy?  I know that when I traveled I didn't pack like a woman and try to take my entire wardrobe with me.

Just exercising a bit of logic (no idea about any of the rest of it- trying to identify crimes when there's no one to prosecute them is nothing but a big waste of time).

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:46 | 3600069 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

trying to identify crimes when there's no one to prosecute them is nothing but a big waste of time

interesting complement to J's comment from this morning.

"There is no truth in the truth" ... and there is no greater truth than that truth. Nor any way of hiding from it. It only remains to ask... where do we go from 'here'??? 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-25/guest-post-our-american-pravda#comment-3599385

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:03 | 3600111 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Trying to identify crimes may be a waste of time (I never mentioned any crimes by the way), but trying to identify vaults is definitely not a waste of time... I assure you...

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:43 | 3600167 Seer
Seer's picture

You mentioned "illegal."

And if you were to find "vaults," then what?

What, we're going to grab what's in them and then buy up shit that, clearly, once we've stepped over this threshold, we're not going to be able to fantasize about having any "legal" apparatus there to backstop our "purchase," are we?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:59 | 3600194 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Sorry, I did not mention "illegal". You are mistaken. It seems you are the one that is fantasizing, with a capital F and a small z. zzzzz

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:02 | 3600025 besnook
besnook's picture

what happened to number 7?

funny stuff.

it is dangerous to assume that stuff that doesn't make sense to you is nonsense because the definition of sense has fluidity that can defy any explanation including math. just ask the paul krugman.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:43 | 3600238 dumpster
dumpster's picture

number 7   is right here

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:06 | 3600027 AvenoSativo
AvenoSativo's picture

Interesting: in the graphic on "Central Bank Gold Reserve", Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are lumped into the so-called "Emerging Market Countries" (who has the dare to give a definition for it?)

The only reason why they are not "allowed" to be called "developed countries" is that their peoples are not white.

We know that Greece, Portugal, Cyprus, etc. are "developed countries" because they are white.

In the recent banking crisis, a Cypriot in an interview said: "Cyprus is being treated like a 'third-world' country." Right, because you are white; thus, you are never "third-world".

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:25 | 3600055 besnook
besnook's picture

they are obviously not white or christian therefore third, uh, i mean, emerging market countries. when china rules the world in the next 10-20 years white and christian countries will be emerging markets.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:13 | 3600037 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

A few other 8 sigma events - The US government admits that it has been in violation of international criminal law for decades and submits its entire present and past civilian, military and business leadership to the World Criminal Court in the Hague for judgment; The Federal Reserve admits that it is a leader in the international banking conspiracy that goes back at least 300 years and dissolves itself, with the entire Board of Governors committing Hara Kiri;Monsanto agrees that GMO are the greatest threat to global health ever devised and withdraws all its GMO products from the market; a significant number of the world's 1%ers admit that they can live on far less than their current incomes and donate the bulk of their assets to charities that feed people and eradicate easily eradicable diseases like Malaria; Obama admits that he is a Kenyan imposter and proclaims Uhuru, abolishes the IRS and Homeland security, legalizes all recreations drugs, and fires all government employees down to GS-10 level, after which he resigns; pigs fly.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:21 | 3600047 Seer
Seer's picture

Where's the unicorn?  I said, WHERE IS THE DAMN UNICORN!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:35 | 3600145 ponzisaurus
ponzisaurus's picture

Going long unicorns with 3x ETF UNI3X.

(investing entails risk read prospectus befoe allocating funds)

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 22:29 | 3600343 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Unicorn sightings are only seven sigma events. If they are seen shitting skittles, that would be eight.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 21:17 | 3600412 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Just follow the trail of skittles.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:14 | 3600039 jeffgroove102
jeffgroove102's picture

When you stop allowing bankruptcies to happen, these type of charts occur.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:16 | 3600041 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Seems to me that the Fed gets Complex Math better than ZH... Like in Complex Numbers, Money and Wealth have Real and Imaginary components. 

TPTB have the power to assign value to real assets using Complex Numbers, whereby the Imaginary components are driven by their fiat creation engines.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:21 | 3600048 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Hey Grant, next time, don't record in the bathroom !!!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 19:26 | 3600282 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Yeah, and try a dry-erase board instead of stupid chalk...better yet, go electronic.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:32 | 3600067 q99x2
q99x2's picture

That 1.4% GDP number is false and we are going ice-9 at this time.

2nd the collapse of the Central Banking Cartel's system will be the best incentive to restore law and order. With the FED and their treasonous politicians mostly in prison and off the back of the nation prosperity will rapidly return. The pent up demand to be productive will explode along with a new sense of law order and stability.

The future is nothing like these punk M'Fn banksters would have you believe.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:45 | 3600169 Seer
Seer's picture

"With the FED and their treasonous politicians mostly in prison and off the back of the nation prosperity will rapidly return. The pent up demand to be productive will explode along with a new sense of law order and stability."

I think of the Russian mob and I can't quit laughing...

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:07 | 3600707 groundedkiwi
groundedkiwi's picture

I drone believe you.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:51 | 3600097 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Good stuff. I have seen a presentation or two from this man before and found it equally enjoyable. Lots of chart porn, humor and here and there a tidbit of knowledge or quotes that I haven´t heard...

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 16:56 | 3600102 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Germany's only screwed if it wished to continue to be bound to the Eurozone.

If it converts the German Euros back into Marks, then I would think that the Eurozone will implode, and fix itself.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:47 | 3600173 Seer
Seer's picture

Germany is screwed because it depends on exports in order to obtain energy that it doesn't have.

And for those paying attention, there is no "FIX" for the Eurozone (see first sentence).

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:08 | 3600116 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

DOn't forget that math (numbers) are a human invention, hence a platonic abstract. All abstacts are imaginary and therefore NOT real.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:25 | 3600142 ponzisaurus
ponzisaurus's picture

Noted. Numbers however as meaning is agreed upon prior to communication are far less susceptable to distortion and manipulation than language as a means of communication.  Your point that any absaloutes should be questioned is valid.  Thank You.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 22:19 | 3600478 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

All is number... starting with the Primordial Schism!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:22 | 3600137 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Here's the math according to the gov and FedRes: 2 + 2 = 5 or Room 101.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:28 | 3600144 ekm
ekm's picture

If this video doesn't make everybody conclude that the current finacial situation is handled day to day or hour to hour, I don't know what else is going to.

 

There is no plan, there is just PANIC.

There is no logic any longer, there is only PANIC.

 

There is only one conclusion: Nobody knows what is going to happen next hour, let alone next day.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:42 | 3600163 Hulk
Hulk's picture

He who panics first panics best !!! I panicked back in 07...

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:47 | 3600174 ekm
ekm's picture

Wise

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:49 | 3600176 Seer
Seer's picture

Ha!  I beat the Hulk!  I panic'd back in 2005!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:50 | 3600180 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'm going to wait until just before the whole thing falls apart to panic. I am pretty sure I can time it perfectly!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:51 | 3600183 ekm
ekm's picture

not wise

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:18 | 3600219 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You are messing with me lately. Your deflationary end game makes me scratch my head. Then yesterday you throw in the sarcastic "nothing major is going to happen.

My brand of humor is more stupid and child like. Yours actually forces me to think. I don't appreciate that at all.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:47 | 3600242 ekm
ekm's picture

LOL

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:51 | 3600182 ekm
ekm's picture

wise

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:40 | 3600235 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well played.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:12 | 3600216 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

I first panicked when I caught the police officer's kid stealing my test answers in grade school.

Knew I was going to grow up in a dysfunctional nation from that point on.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:32 | 3600231 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

I didn't panic until 2009. Now I'm in a perpetual state of panic.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 22:25 | 3600487 cro_maat
cro_maat's picture

I started a solar energy project company in 2009. When the banks laughed at my 35% ROI commercial projects and continued to take free fiat from the Fed for repos, derivatives, gold manipulation, etc.... then I panicked.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 00:58 | 3600597 Manic by Proxy
Manic by Proxy's picture

Yeah? I panicked last century.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 10:08 | 3600970 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

I came out of the womb with a dear in the headlights look :) A panicked look that even I couldnt explain why.

2008 told me why.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:33 | 3600152 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Tell me whether it's sustaintable: a 1700 sqf (3 rooms) condo in the city of los gatos, silicom valley now sells for $770k with hoa fee $450/month plus 1.1% proprety tax per year. White Americans and latinos are getting smart, they rather rent than own, but Indian and Chinese are new pround owners of great 'debts'.

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:38 | 3600158 Silver Sativa
Silver Sativa's picture

The Chinese are buying our own land right from under us. In my neighborhood, I hear people speaking Mandarin all the time. I even saw one Caucasian man speaking Mandarin. I thought that was weird.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:51 | 3600181 Seer
Seer's picture

I'm thinking that they might have said that we're buying their stuff right from under them!

No one put a gun to anyone's head and told them to sell.

As long as Ag land stays local all is correctable (for "Caucasians" that is).

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:08 | 3600209 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

HOA fee of $450/month?

That should be the rent, or the mortgage payment.

Unsustainable, but don't tell the Chinese from the Red Army that.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:13 | 3600322 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Our monthly HOA fee in Silicon Valley, for a 2 BR 2 BA 1970s condo that looks like it is a 1970s condo, is $685.84.

If your job here pays that much more than it would elsewhere, it can make economic sense.

If you can't get a job elsewhere, it can make economic sense.

You'd think that someone must be siphoning money.  But no, I know the people on the board.  They are depressed guys in their 60s who are serving because they know someone has to.  And the president of the board is really into maintenance (retired doctor who owns rental properties) in a hands-on way.  None of the people who detest him have EVER found any impropriety.  CA is an expensive state.  This is an expensive part of an expensive state.

Ugh.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 19:27 | 3600283 jomama
jomama's picture

so even if you put down 100K on that place, a 30 yr mortgage @ 4% per annum + property tax + HOA fees are over $4000 a month. even if you're making 100k a year, net that's barely 65K. leaving you around 1000 bennybux a month for food, car, insurance, etc. how the fuck are people pulling this off?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:27 | 3600348 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Two incomes, at least 150k per year each.

Nanny who has no social or economic leverage takes care of the kids.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:24 | 3600341 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Boeing 747, I don't know if it's sustainable, but it's probably rational of them.  They are getting money out while they can, and buying better air quality for their kids.  It's ironic; the air quality in e.g. Palo Alto is HORRIBLE (per Sperlings Best Places, it ranks 11.8 on a scale of 1-100 where 100 is best; U.S. average is 82.8).  But that's still a million times better than in China or India.  They can feed their kids food that isn't totally toxic and contaminated.

Where I volunteer there's a high school kid from China.  He's in a private school in Palo Alto.  I asked him why he was in a private school, when the public schools are supposed to be so great; he didn't really know.  It turns out that his family is still in China; they didn't buy a house here; they simply put him in a boarding school here.  It's sad; he seems pretty lonely.  But I guess at least he can breath.

It would be more rational for Chinese and Indian people to buy houses in other parts of the U.S..  However, I guess they're familiar with certain areas.  So, sensible local people can sell at a high price and move to a part of the country that's not ridiculous.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 17:36 | 3600156 Silver Sativa
Silver Sativa's picture

I'm waiting for that bubble to burst this weekend! There is still over 24 hours remaining!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:01 | 3600199 observer007
observer007's picture

off topic

Rocket fired at Israel from south Lebanon

latest:

http://tersee.com/#q=israel&t=text

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:10 | 3600210 steveo77
steveo77's picture

“Breaking news: Obama Destroys the Bill of Rights on Memorial day

http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2013/05/summary-of-bill-of-rights-on-memorial.html

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 19:18 | 3600275 jomama
jomama's picture

rad website dude

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:36 | 3600356 Bear
Bear's picture

Bili of Rights ... a list of suggestions by a bunch of old white guys

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:23 | 3600720 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQNiBQehwp8

The Bill of Rights is the gift to the people of America by men who knew the vast wealth would be subject to manuevers, relentlessly, to possess as their own. 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:53 | 3600247 robnume
robnume's picture

We're Americans, Grant. WE CANNOT DO MATH!! To be able to do math would be an anathema, not to mention antithetical, to any American citizen. We're No. 1 and that's all we need to know. MATHEMATICS, BAH!

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 18:57 | 3600254 criticalreason
criticalreason's picture

ok so we know the retailers are robbing the punters;

my question is when the gold miners sell their gold do they get 'the gold price' or the 'price of gold'?

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 00:48 | 3600595 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

when the gold miners sell their gold do they get 'the gold price' or the 'price of gold'?...

My guess would be it depends on the miner and who owns the miner. Used to be financial institutions owned the paper documents attesting to their ownership of the enterprise and were content with garnishing a percentage of their investment payable in the material itself. However, with the free float of their "investment" in terms of cb produced ethereal values, that ship is no longer moored.

I think the "money" comment in the foregoing presentation was in one of the concluding thoughts: "beware of suppressed volatility". The US currently lays claim to the least expensive access to the acquisition of newly mined AU, but given the current state of the executive branch and the rapid decline of the rule of law, particularly the disassembling of the bill of rights, our political risk will rise and create a dangerous condition rivaling the UKs attempt tolerate the intolerable criminal activities of their newly acquired muslim “citizenry”.

Jmo.  

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 19:08 | 3600261 jubber
jubber's picture

HUGE fucking ramp going on?????????????S&P up 20 points now from Fridays low, Dow up another 50 , DAX up 70 what the hell is going on with this open??? All stops taken out within 5 minutes I would suspect...and Nikkei futures down 200 ?

 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:34 | 3600355 Bear
Bear's picture

Mathematics ... ES now down

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 19:48 | 3600301 Brazen Heist
Brazen Heist's picture

Some of the QE money is in the stock market DUHH!

But thats not all folks.

Take a look at this chart:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS

Excess reserves are still at record highs. Why? Because the Fed decided to PAY interest on excess reserves to all the money pushing banks since 2008 when QE began. Is that a coincidence? I think not. The Fed did that to prevent outright inflation, keeping the massive amounts of money stored in reserve accounts, now almost $1.8t. This shouldnt be allowed to build up to such dangerous levels, because this is a damn waiting to burst. In a normal functioning economy, excess reserves will be close to ZERO, as can be seen prior to 2008 in the chart.

Next time some douche says the economy is doing well, show them this chart.

The thing is, banks create money out of thin air based on the amount of excess reserves. They must create brand new deposit money in proportion to their excess reserves. The created money can be lent or invested. If lending conditions are not great, they will invest newly created money, as can be seen re the stock market. If excess reserves decrease, beware of inflation and a new bubble, simply because they are at such preposterous levels to begin with. As soon as the economic climate becomes "favorable" in the eyes of banks, beware the excess reserve bomb, shits gonna get wild and bubbly.

Damn thing is so rigged in favor of banks.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:00 | 3600311 ChaosEquilibrium
ChaosEquilibrium's picture

I'm seeing U1.70 on S&P, U20 on Dow and D44 on DAX.....it does look like the Nikkei will drop hard on the open.....BOJ, FED, ECB will now BUY(SAVE) IT in the 2nd session:)....Does not look good closing on the lows....let the TPTB watch market forces and then intervene into EOD:):)

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:13 | 3600323 RottenAlpha
RottenAlpha's picture
Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:38 | 3600361 Jake88
Jake88's picture

This guy should sell CDs for people with insomnia.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 11:39 | 3601159 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Most of the Math and Physics graduates inthe UK end up in the Financial Services sector.  For them the math is easy, and the pay is (or was) better than at grad school or most other jobs.  Don't blame him one bit. 

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:45 | 3600370 Promethus
Promethus's picture

What the people of France need is to be guided by reel wisdom when selecting a leader and a political program. Using the magic of Google translate to make up for my American education language deficiency.

Tout le monde sait que vous n'allez jamais le plein retard.- Kirk Lazarus Tropical Thunder.

 

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 00:30 | 3600581 Bear
Bear's picture

Reel Wisdon = Tom Hanks for POTUS (Hanks is the most trusted man in Amerika)

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 09:17 | 3600871 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Picking a President .... is like a box of chocolates .... there's white chocolate and dark chocolate .... and they're all SOCIALIST inside  !

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:52 | 3600375 belogical
belogical's picture

The focus is on earnings. I believe it was Chris Whalen who pointed out that for every $1 of revenue there is $4 of profit which is only possible if the banks and larger companies are derriving most of their profits not from business, but from the 85 billion pumping the markets up.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:57 | 3600384 knowshitsurelock
knowshitsurelock's picture

I always thought that, to make money investing, one had to buy low and sell high.  Why is it nowadays, so many buy high and sell low?

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 20:59 | 3600388 MoneyChasingReturns
MoneyChasingReturns's picture

Here's the simple truth.

1. The equity market is up because the interest rate on savings is suppressed below reality, so "stupid" money has to go there. Honestly, its better to buy a producing "Asset" than equity, as equities will fall just like house prices propped up by low interest rates. Wealthy people are buying mines in Africa, steel mills in India, and apartment blocks in Texas oil towns. Poor people are buying mutual funds at record highs, while borrowing money from a bank to buy a house and car they can't afford in the first place. Life isnt rocket science, you choose your path, its a SURE thing.

2. Conspiracy's about phantom crashes are pointless. The dollar won't crash, gold wont go to a billion, and the clouds are not trying to kill you.

The dolar will be slightly unstable, gold will always be worth about the same amount in barrels of oil, and clouds are just there to deliver rain.

3. The only economy that matters is your PERSONAL one. Stay debt free, invest in producing assets after being free from debt, and live life to the best enjoyment possible past that. In the event of economic crash just use your savings to buy more assets and celebrate being debt free. Only those in debt are slaves. People who are debt free dont't care about the economy.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 22:05 | 3600462 dolph9
dolph9's picture

The problem is that systemic debt ensures that everything for sale is mispriced, generally to the upside.

So it doesn't matter what you buy, chances are you are paying too much.

 

If you understand that the world is moving from "how to win" to "how not to lose" you are well on your way to enlightenment.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:39 | 3600735 BurningBetty
BurningBetty's picture

Looking from the economic point of view and disregarding todays monetary system based on credit, deflation benefits everyone! What it doesn't benefit is the current system. And that is why the Central Bankers will do whatever they can to force inflation upon us. And they are willing to print as much money as possible to get there, even though it won't work. It will only lead to massive poverty over the whole scale. With deflationary forces at large the amount of credit is unchanged, which means more money needs to be produced to pay off the incurring debt. With deflation come higher interest rates.

There is no exit from this path now. They are going to run this horse till it collapses and dies.  

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 11:43 | 3601176 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Dolphy, don't get me going with your "So it doesn't matter what you buy, chances are you are paying too much."

The same could be said for gold.  Too many (me too) bought in at the $1600-1700 regime.  Clearly we "overpaid".  Had we bought now, we could have bought the same for less -- and used the extra cash for other things -- or we could have bought more.

Truth is a two-edged sword.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 01:11 | 3600602 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

No.. Here's the simple truth. Were quagmire with fraud, theft and Psy Op.

 

http://www.tomheneghanbriefings.com/

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 09:34 | 3600895 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

Not so simple really. Before I gave it all away, I came to the realization that you really don't own anything.  This is the case simply because the government will TAX you on any assets you think you own, and will confiscate your assets should you fail to pay.  No matter how you try, if you OWN IT they want a piece of IT.  I had owned a great deal, but came to the realization that in fact I owned nothing, because in order to maintain my STUFF, I would always have to pay to keep it.  I was A TRUE DEBT SLAVE. I was required to labor just to pay the multiple layers of government taxes and fees.

It's time to wake up to reality, as long as you play their game, there is no such thing as DEBT FREE period.

Sun, 05/26/2013 - 23:43 | 3600556 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Most likely, they can continue this charade for a much longer period of time than any of us realize.

Problem is, at the present our option of other planets to emigrate to is limited.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 00:33 | 3600578 Bear
Bear's picture

You can drown your despair at Planet Hollywood

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 06:35 | 3600691 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hello, ZH.

My name is Cochran. I have an idea for a Warp Drive.

Any investors?

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 01:42 | 3600612 Debugas
Debugas's picture

about honesty being the only policy the best answer to that is in the bible - http://biblehub.com/matthew/5-13.htm

"You are the salt of the earth. But if the salt loses its saltiness, how can it be made salty again? It is no longer good for anything, except to be thrown out and trampled underfoot".

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 01:43 | 3600614 EARLPEARL
EARLPEARL's picture

what's up with the fricking chalk board sounds???

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 06:32 | 3600688 paddy0761
paddy0761's picture

Time the Tylers domiciled this website with a host in a more liberal country. DPRK perhaps?

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 06:38 | 3600692 CutOut
CutOut's picture

i-dog is a heart sockpuppet.

heart's post volume has dropped substantially since it was exposed for posting Boston bombing 100% disinformation.

heart will have many bogus identities on ZH.

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/474426/3599557

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:02 | 3600703 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

what BS. i-dog, for all his faults, has a clearly distinct personality and opinion. meanwhile your account is quite young-ish. bring some facts, before you engage in defamation of this kind

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:10 | 3600712 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

The end justifies the means. 

Morally wrong actions are behind the protection of society from outlaws.

Disarming the Americans is overthrowing American in it's final stage.   Sent to slaughter in a business deal, self-indulgent proclamation in a moment of delusion of grandeur, in a wistful declaration, "why, I will buy the world and make it my own to do with as I please as soon as I own all the armies.  Shut up."

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 06:39 | 3600693 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

O/T, but a 5.6 quake hit Panama.

No reports on the canal yet.

 

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:22 | 3600719 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Here we go again............people wondering what stocks are doing at all time highs and we all know the answer.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:33 | 3600728 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

First Germany and the like were laughing and pushing Greece around cause as long as the money streams were diverted into the big banks the show could go on.

But now they’s not laughing anymore because now it has become crystal clear to everyone that EU’s total debt impossibly can’t be payed by Germany alone. Even less so now Europe’s economical situation is deteriorating rapidly. Also because of insane austerity measures which do not only not work but accomplish exactly the opposite in causing a sharp economical downfall in an increasing ‘debt spiral’. We don’t have to quess anymore what that looks like because that’s exactly what has happened to Argentina before and we’re seeing exactly the same happening now in PIIGS.

Soevereign debt rollovers are no longer possible at a low prices while tax money income dries up in a totaly sqeezed private deleveraging debt hole further battered down by high inflation numbers mainly trough high sustaining oil prices which affects almost everything including food. All in all the ECB would need around an estimated $6 trillion to accommodate their imediate and inter-imediate funding needs. One can imagine that this is a very dead street the ECB would be turning into because debts which can’t be payed won’t be payed even if you’re called ‘Germany’.

So, Germany and thus the Netherlands are screwed! Peeps no notin, seen notin here so we’re in fact double screwed! At least some people in Germany were sane enough to vote The Pirate Party. Dutch chumps here did exactly what big brother told them on the telly, ‘vote for a big party or otherwise your vote gets lost’, what a nonsense but sheople unfortunately bought the bogus story.

Youri Carma’s Carte Figurative: Europe’s Retreat to Debt 2012-2013 When A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v393/youricarma/Miscellaneous/MINARDS_NAPOLEON_EUROPES_RETREAT_DEBT_2012-2013A.jpg

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 07:48 | 3600740 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Mathematics is logical?

Prove:

i^2 = -1

 

Can't? Try calculating phase relationships in electronic AC circuits without it.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 11:53 | 3601196 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Then there's the famous fallacy of the ball never reaching point B, because the ball would have to first get to the half-way point, and to do that it would have to reach that halfway point, and so on and so on.

BTW, in his 10x example, he simply "shifted" the decimal in his infinite series construct.  Nice trick.

"Infinite series" are a nice mental construct, but in reality, there are (lower) limits, due to Quantum Physics and String Theory.  You can't go on "forever" outside a math class.  Try that trick in the physics class. 

I guess you can tell what his major was? ;-)

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 12:29 | 3601270 Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

...and that a mathematically 1 in a billion event occurred means (1) something is wrong with probability calculations in general; or (2) the wrong formula is being applied to this occurrence.  

These 6, 7, 8 sigma events seem to be happening in the financial world every few years.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 14:08 | 3601439 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

...and that a mathematically 1 in a billion event occurred means (1) something is wrong with probability calculations in general; or (2) the wrong formula is being applied to this occurrence. 

No. That's only true if you believe the markets aren't hopelessly rigged.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 12:04 | 3601226 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Complex math, complex money...

Money = Re(Assets) + Im(fiat)

Or that's how the Fed is treating it:  They've opted to go Long on the Im() part of money, so that they can ignore the Re() part.  Simple case of Complex Numbers.

Note that [(fiat*derivatives) = -1]  The idea is that the -1 acts as a wealth-transfer mechanism:  Swap Im() for Re(assets).  ;-)

 

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 08:31 | 3600794 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/china-said-to-study-investing-reserves-in-u-s-property-market.html

China is studying the possibility of investing a portion of its $3.4 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves in U.S. real estate, said two people with direct knowledge of the situation.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange began the study after seeing signs of a recovery in the U.S. property market, said the people, who asked not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the matter. China may acquire properties, invest in real estate funds or buy stakes in property companies, they said. The safety of the investments will be the top priority, said the people, who didn’t elaborate on a timetable or other details.

China has set up an operation in New York to make alternative investments in the U.S., an effort by the country’s foreign-exchange reserves manager to diversify away from U.S. government debt, the Wall Street Journal reported last week, citing people it didn’t identify.

Prices for single-family homes increased in 89 percent of U.S. cities in the first quarter as the housing market extended its recovery following a five-year slump. The median sales price rose in 133 of 150 metropolitan areas measured from 74 year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on May 9.

“In the long run it should be a good opportunity as the U.S. property market is gradually rebounding,” said Frank Chen, Shanghai-based head of China research at CBRE Group Inc. “It will help diversify the foreign reserves’ investment portfolio. Properties such as office building have stable yields, which match its investment strategies.”

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 08:55 | 3600839 new game
new game's picture

let them hold the bag. never underestimate the power of taxation...

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 09:34 | 3600894 resurger
resurger's picture

Grant, i loved this so much ..lol

"A 7 Sigma move in gold prices happens once in 1 Billion years"

 

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 12:21 | 3601256 Occams Aftershave
Occams Aftershave's picture

I enjoy Mr. William's insights and witty presentation.

He is, however, only telling half the story of the "price of gold".    I have actually used gold in private transactions over many years, as well as bought and sold with bullion dealers and coin shops.

Mr. Williams correctly points out there was a 20% premium to buy physical gold in the recent panic.   What he neglects to mention is that there is also a 10% to 25% discount to sell these precious metals. My most recent real world first person example was when silver reached $49 I took some to my most trusted dealer and he said "since you're a good customer, I'm only going to charge you a 20% discount.  Most I charge 25%!"  

In short, what Mr. Williams highlights as a fundamental difference in the gold price vs. the price of gold is simply the difference between wholesale and retail.  

What is really happening with those long iines of people in the gold shops is the shop keepers are making a one-day 20% profit.

To clarify one's thinking, I suggest zh readers take a gold coin to your favorite dealer once a year and sell it.  That will reveal the other half of the equation and allow you to mark-to-market the transactional value of your physical.

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 13:04 | 3601313 stockbets
stockbets's picture

What crap. Either Mr Williams makes money or he shows off his intellectual gymnastics. He has to make a choice as a fund manager - quickly

Mon, 05/27/2013 - 23:19 | 3602658 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

Great talk, as always. The situation with France is bizarre. But like Japan, it will soon be overtaken by reality.

The second proof of 0.999... = 1 has a mistake in step 2. It's not "0.333", but "0.333..." ad infinitum. Indeed, 3 x 0.333... = 1 = 3 x 1/3. It's not a trick. An endlessly repeating decimal is equivalent to a fraction that can be multiplied by its denominator to yield an integer.

And Riemann's name is pronounced (in keeping with normal German rules) "REE-man."

Wed, 05/29/2013 - 06:23 | 3606622 Pat Fields
Pat Fields's picture

I'll take a crack at Question #1 ... Answer: Because bond and equity markets are the only 'pools' large enough to contain all the currency being created.

You see, currency inflation (notional and digital, globally) is automatically generated commensurate with the interest service upon it. All banknotes are loaned as principal at interest ... ONLY. The interest, being purely a math function requiring MORE currency than the principal in circulation, impels FURTHER borrowing to create NEW currency so as to SERVICE the interest.

The banknote scheme is one of reciprocal co-generation of currency and interest indebtedness ... in perpetuity. Many readers of this article will recognize the process as an exponental progression, where each side of the equation increasingly magnifies the other.

That continues on until the debt service exceeds all capacity of the economy to 'offset' it with trade profits and the population reaches 'debt-saturation', where no other choice is left for banks but to print the debt service currency 'out of the blue' as a 'bridge' to ... whatever they can dream up to prevent implosion ... one more day.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!