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Where Are We Now? - A World View
Submitted by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
Wondering why the money world got its knickers in a twist last week? The answer is simple: the global economy is breaking apart and its constituent major players are doing face-plants on the downhill slope of a no-longer-cheap-oil way of life. Let’s look at them case by case.
The USA slogs deeper into paralysis and decay in a collective mental fog of disbelief that its own exceptionalism can’t overcome the laws of thermodynamics. This general malaise precipitates into a range of specific quandaries. The so-called economy depends on financialization, since it is no longer based on manufacturing things of value. The financialization depends on housing, that is, a particular kind of housing: suburban sprawl housing (and its commercial accessories, the strip malls, the box stores, the burger shacks, etc.). Gasoline is now too expensive to run the suburban living arrangement. It will remain marginally unaffordable. Even if the price of oil goes down, it will be because citizens of the USA will not have enough money to buy it. Lesson: the suburban project is over, along with the economy it drove in on.
But so is the mega-city project, the giant metroplex of skyscrapers. So, don’t suppose that we can transform the production house-building industry into an apartment-building industry. The end of cheap oil also means we can’t run cities at the 20th century scale. That includes the scale of the buildings as well as the aggregate scale of the whole urban organism. Nobody gets this. For one thing, there will be far fewer jobs in anything connected to financialization because that “industry” is imploding. The recent action around the Federal Reserve illustrates this. When chairman Bernanke’s lips quivered last week, the financial markets had a grand mal seizure. He floated the notion that his organization might “taper” their purchases of US government issued debt and mortgage-backed securities — the latter being mostly bundled debt originated by government-sponsored entities and agencies. That’s the “money” that supports the suburban sprawl industry.
If the Fed were to reduce its purchases of this debt paper, nobody else would buy it. The reason the Fed buys the quantity it does in the first place ($85 billion-a-month) is that nobody else would touch it at the offered zero interest rates. The US Treasury and the mortgage bundlers could only sell the stuff if they paid higher interest rates. But the US government would choke to death on higher interest rates because its aggregate debt is so huge and the scheduled interest payments so gigantic that a one percent increase would destroy even the fantasy of economic equilibrium.
Apart from that unhappy equation, entropy never sleeps. Everything in America except the Apple stores and a handful of big banks is falling apart — especially the human habitat and households. Suburbia will only lose value and utility. Big cities will have to get smaller (ouch!). Tar sands, shale oil and shale gas will not ride to the rescue (they cost too much to get out of the ground). The entire declension of government from federal to state to local will be too broke to fix the roads and make “transfer payments” to idle, indigent citizens. This populace will lose faith in their institutions… and disorder will eventually resolve in a new and very different disposition of things on-the-ground. If we’re lucky, this will not include cruel despotic leadership and war.
If the “taper” talk is empty rhetoric, and the Fed continues sopping up issued debt, it will eventually destroy the credibility of its issued money. That is just another way of going broke, though it might beat a shorter path to the general loss of legitimacy of governments and other institutions.
Young people, harken: prepare for careers in agriculture and activities that support it. Consider moving to small towns in parts of the country where farming is possible and get ready to rebuild a very different economy. Also, consider repudiating your college debt en masse, since the fantasy of repayment is but another mental shackle holding you back from your future.
As for the other parts of the global economy, a digest:
Europe doesn’t have enough oil and gas to run itself. Its suppliers (Russia, various Islamic states) are all basically hostile to it. As the late, great Tony Soprano might say, “end of story.” Europe has been playing financial pocket pool with itself for five years with credibility ebbing. Soon Europe will descend into painful economic re-set. Its era as the go-to theme park of advanced civilization is ending. Go there while it’s still possible and take some snapshots of what comfort and artistry used to look like.
China is imploding under the weight of its half-assed crony command economy and banking system. Nice try. Cookie fortune says, “Industrial era entered too late in game.” All else there is desperation: e.g. the idea of moving hundreds of millions of peasants into new cities. As Tony would say, “Fuggeddabowdit.” They’re better off growing bok choy en situ. Anyway, no one should assume that China can remain politically stable. Let’s hope that its economic and political crack-up doesn’t transmute into war.
Russia’s oil production is in permanent decline. It has a lot, but it gets most of its income from selling it to other people. Hence, Vlad Putin’s notion of finding something else to base Russia’s economy on. Like…what? I don’t think they’re going to replace China in making salad shooters. Farming would be the way to go, and Vlad’s government is hoping that global warming improves Russia’s prospects for doing more of that. In any case, Russia might benefit in the long term by not selling off all of its oil and gas — though Western Europe would surely suffer from that decision. On the plus side, Russia’s government is not crippled by idiot squabbles over abortion, gay marriage, and the Bible in schools.
Japan. Sorry to repeat myself. Going medieval. They have no oil and gas. (Cue Tony Soprano again.) In the event, Japan’s financial hara-kiri will drag down the rest of the world’s banking system — or at least hasten the damage already self-inflicted elsewhere around the globe. I’m also informed that much of the essential computer chip fabrication in the world still happens in Japan, and that will go away, too, as the Japanese engine seizes, smokes, and expels its final belch of CO2.
What else is there? South America? Think: spreading jungle (or desert, take your pick). Canada? There’s an idea. Maybe Labrador becomes the new Hamptons? Second biggest national land mass… 30 million people (2 percent of China’s population). Only one drawback: the view to the south.
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Great post and critical thinking skills.
Actually my first thought was to start establishing trade to cities. Like was done a million times over. There will still be services and goods that will be available in cities that are unavailable in the country. I know there are stories about city folks wandering into the country after the world wars, what wasn't mentioned is most of them were too stupid to store the meat properly and quite often shat themselves to death.
The major concern though in that situation as in other situations collapse situations is dogs. In crappy economic times dogs are left to run around and pack up together. I'm not too worried about a bunch of guys with guns eating their way through the countryside like pac man.
It's the millions of dogs replicating faster than ever that won't have their kibble. All roving in packs numbering from 10-300. Some of them trained to ignore the sound of gun fire and keep going. Hunger is always the best gravy. Especially for dogs.
Medieval spain can tell you all about the fun of wolves and dogs. They would form up in armies of thousands of men to move caravans of goods to France. The likelihood of any of those armoured and armed men coming out the outside alive was around 40%. Those were Iberian wolves mind you, not much bigger than a Lab.
Dogs are much better killers than any ape could be. Speed, endurance, strength, numbers, claw and fang. A couple of armed humans against a pack is lunch in under a minute unless up a tree.
Around 1880, when Manhattan numbered around 1,000,000... Nearly 500 tones of horse manure were collected from the streets of New York every day, produced by 62,208 horses living in 1,307 stables. The manure, along with human waste, was deposited on Barren Island, where it was converted into fertilizer in a process said to be "not inoffensive" to residents on the Long Island shore...
Garbage...our other problem. Most of the dumps would become hazardous and flammable without a catepillar pushing and rotating the piles.
Man there is going to be a lot to clean up.
Dog food is still cheap, and they are man's best friend...
Re food, isn't it more likely people will have to eat what is available? Right now there is a lot of waste. In sudden collapse (transmission mechanism unknown) there will definitely be turmoil. But if its more gradual, you could see people planting lettuces and squash and kale (not that I would voluntarily eat the stuff myself)...
They are planting already, most normal people notice that what they eat isn't making them feel well so they are taking back their heritage and trading time for quality food. I think it's a positive thing, plus it's fun. If folks weren't thinking gardening this year, I'm pretty sure the weekly trip to walmart should remind them.
But the dogs. I've got three, all three are abandoned dogs that people from the city drive out and drop off a dog, as if it'll take to the woods magically. Mostly when found they are half dead, thirsty and friendly. I kept three, the other 14-15 a month go to the SPCA. Reason it always seems like country folks have lots of dogs, we do, but we inherit them by luck. Lots of great dogs out there, only so much space and time to commit though to other people's mistakes. Seriously, who leaves a Pom-Russell half mutt that weights six pounds at the side of the road? He's fine btw, he's a fat 10 pound old man now and he keeps people's feet warm. Used to move like the wind, now he only passes it.
Sometimes though, the dog remembers the wolf and what it's ancestors were, and they are incredibly hard to hunt. They know people and they can blend in anywhere people are and the woods they've staked out. It's a little un-nerving watching a 100 pound rottie casually stroll into a yard, pick up a chicken and scram for the tree line. If you didn't do something about it...last thing you'd want to hear of is a neighbour's kid getting mauled by a stray or a pack of them. It's a problem now, but mostly controlled. Lack of services and equipment to deal with it will only exacerbate the issue. Not nearly as far out as me, but closer to town I could see it happening and being more problematic.
The twin realities of "reduced consumption" and "reuse everything" will mean there will be not nearly as much actual garbage as now. Our landfills are already rich troves for future generations of miners who will unearth precious plastic and pot metal for another 50 years.
Is this ZH, or a Trekkie convention? If survival favors inertia of the current system, that's what you'll have. Nothing less than extreme geological, astronomical, meteorological, or biological abruption would cause the utter overturn of the current system.
Human economics on earth is a closed system, zero sum. In and of themselves, economics only will have a comparatively mild effect on history - compared to the aforementioned influences.
Actually survival does not appear to favor the current system. As for unbalanced forces the current system occupies an unstable equilibrium at this point, is being held in place via titanic efforts, and will simply collapse of its own internal contradictions as soon as the wizards decide to take their winnings and close up shop.
Glad I could clear that up for you.
True. The shift, if catastrophic, sure everyone's screwed. But the damage over time effect, chaos theory at it's finest. Like...umm....being kissed to death by butterflies. It's really pretty, lots of motion, lots of pretty colours yet a cloud of butterflies just ate you a molecule at a time and you didn't notice until it was too late.
Example. Electrical parts maker is attempting to find copper at market price doesn't find any because every supplier would be insane to offer at the price because they would go broke. So the broker manages to find copper from a repo dealer, not the same grade, but pretty close. A Power relay is then made and just makes it under wire for quality control on it's testing.
The part is packaged in a lighter frame flex reenforced cardboard frame instead of an durable aluminium frame, this is to save roughly hundreds of tonnes of shipping costs each year to save on the energy costs passed along by the shipper. In transit the part sustains a small crack in its housing because the shipping housing failed spectcularily but the damage is unknown. The part is then recieved in a warehouse, the warehouse isn't climate controlled to meet the environmental conditions required for storing the part, this is because executive decisions elsewhere have asked for cost cutting measures. Warehouses and food shipments in trucks are very sceptible to energy costs and the climate controls are what makes a razor thin bottom line happen.
Six months of hot days and cool nights, expand and contract the part in fractions pushing the original dimensions of the part out of that razor thin margin of error to avoid a severe accident. A client requires parts for their infrastructure to make sure power is relayed in a steady, constant and predictable flow. Measureable. Engineers follow their ISO practices and create all the necessary paper work and meetings for a MAC (Move/Add/Change), asset management is done. Then Skilled/Unionized/Guild of Trades people are requested to help install the power relay, the usual eyeball tests are done to the part, safety standards appear good, safety practice and professional skill are put into practice.
...then you get a blackout at the super bowl.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-02-08/business/chi-power-relay-from-local-supplier-at-fault-in-super-bowl-outage-20130208_1_power-outage-entergy-corp-data-centers
...or the country you live in goes dark.
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=34976:thursday-blackout-fourth-island-wide-power-outage-in-past-4-years-cause-of-line-fault-not-yet-known&catid=45:guam-news&Itemid=156
It's like a really mean Rube Goldberg concept designed to frustrate. Minor tiny changes that don't have a specific source but the given environment conspires against the entire process and the end result. Murphy's law...maybe a derivative of it.
The slums of Mumbai agree with you....
Still the same in 2013 but it comes from Wall street now and is exported everywhere else. Residents...well, you decide.
Yes, you can have both, because the third option is the cemetery.
What does that tell you...it was no recovery, it was govt induced illusion.
Canada: protest (or exercise free speech rights) anywhere in public while wearing a mask: 10 years in prison. Might be OK to move to Canada for maybe a few years, but the police state virus has definitely established a foothold.
I bet Canadia is ahead of USSA in the race to police state.
+1. Lower overhead cost, fewer sheep to tag.
And by being America Jr, they are happy to have mom and dad fund the party and no one anywhere is saying no.
For the young and mobile, I would suggest a move to an area with such dramatic inclement weather conditions that is also remotely populated and life sustaining. It will be your best chance at future survival, but beware of supervolcanos.
And now, back to your regularly scheduled program.
If you really want, you can go live in the Arctic. Although, if supply chains break down you might not be too happy eating caribou and muskox, rabbit and ptarmigan for the rest of your life.
Its something people forget about the Arctic, there's quite a bit of food there, but there isn't EXCESS, i.e. you can't export caribou meat. There's enough for the people who live there, and they have to work for it.
Yum, Roast Ptarmigan, the Cornish Hen with that soupcon of northern exposure....
Consider moving to small towns in parts of the country where farming is possible and get ready to rebuild a very different economy.
not just the economy, but rebuild that on which every civilization has risen & fallen...soils.
get your rock dust, bitchez...only 1 oz of silver/20 FeRNs per ton (delivery not included).
Bet, Snowden is in the Equadoran Embassy in Vietnam. Next stop Quito.
Who knows?
The plane that some say he is aboard, others deny - SU150/AFL150 - went off the www.flightradar24.com radar for several hours just as it was expected to fly over Iceland. Weird.
Did it make an unscheduled stop in Iceland? hhmmm.
It's now re-appeared on FR24 flying over Canada but with a slightly new flightpath that takes it right over US land and onto Havana. Original flightpath showed it going down the East Coast Atlantic.
Will the USAF be going up in a few hours to force it down?
Interesting essay, but I find one weak link - the author centers everything around the scarcity of oil. What if there is a breakthrough in battery production towards more capacity per volume, instant charging etc? That will make a change, no?
And what if Congress simply repeals those Laws of Physics that are inconvient?
Here is a place to start to get down the basics:
http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/post-index/
The down arrow folks don't read facts Flack... It gets in the way of their misconceptions.
Good Links
Why don't you just buy yourself a 3-D printer for a few hundred bucks... Print yourself a DEATH STAR with it... & blow the fuck out of all the people who don't agree with you?
~~~
That would make the world a 'better' place, right?...
How did you get there from what I said.
Not asking anyone to believe like I do, Just do some due diligence on the subject and read a little bit.
But I am not going to suffer the fools when talking about Geology to Philosophy and Economic majors.
How is the world produce per day (roughly) in conventional Oil?
When did the US peak in Barrels per day of Conventional Oil Production?
What effect did the north slope have on that US Oil Graph?
When did the North Sea Peak? How about Cantarell? Burgan? Where are those last two?
If you can answer questions like these off the top of your head, then reply.
In case you have not noticed, Francis is actively campaigning for the role of Village Idiot...
He is not yet up to speed on energy issues, at least compared to his material on the "International Jewish Conspiracy"...
I'm already a functioning 'Potemkin Village Idiot' [by choice]...
No.
You need to put energy into batteries to get it out later.
If you don't see how that is an issue then I suggest you read up on how the world now creates energy for it's rolling fleet of trucks, cars and tractors, how it moves freight overseas, and how it wages war and you will see how badly screwed we have become.
Cougar, I didn't know you were one of the ones who 'gets it'. Good to know.
I "get it" from about six different directions. Entropy has its hooks set in us, we will not escape it, and not by any later child of technology either. The bottom of the energy well looks a lot to me like the "Middle Ages", which if we accept that destination means the Middle Ages were not actually the middle of anything. More likely, we have enjoyed only a short 400 years vacation from the eternal toil of human labor, to which reality we will now inevitably return.
Not such a bad thing really. We need something to do besides watch sports all the time. Rots the mind, that stuff.
Funny, the idealization of labor, and then the fetishist ion of same, happened after the Middle Ages. I'd much rather be a plains Indian circa 1400 CE than a European serf ... ever.
It's not so much that work sucks, but that life is nothing but work, and life sucks for that and many other reasons. Yes, we've gotten lazy and decadent, but going backward doesn't solve that ... It just restricts the privilege to a smaller subpopulation, at the expense of the others. Of coirse, We never really left the Middle Ages, a succession of hydrocarbon fuel sources and some remarkable science/technology just make it seem that way on the surface.
Going back doesn't solve any of the problems we've failed to solve since. If it's this species' lot to be subsistence farmers for the remainder of its pathetic existence, why even bother, given the sheer enormity of the discrepancy between what could have been and what is/will be? That's all the neocortex, billions of years of evolution, will come to... farming and miserable poverty.
The other choice is to be semi-nomadic, staring down death every day.
It's a long, slow march to evolutionary suicide. All that intelligence, for nothing.
With regard to your last point, we should annex Canada and sell the bottom 1/4 of the US to Mexico which would pretty much solve all our problems...the oil we give up in the gulf and TX is more than made up for in Canada.
The US southwest will probably be Mexico's for the taking. As quickly as the air conditioning becomes erratic the European settlers will leave for northern climates more to their liking. $1 trillion in development, materials and infrastructure will have been surrendered without a shot fired.
The lack of water will be the primary reason for the exodus.... just my two cents....
I would make you a gentleman's wager on that one. Except that either outcome would be a disaster, and it seems unsporting to wager against our fellows.
Made some good points. Love the cynicism.
The Middle Class is Getting Fired
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/middle-class-getting-fired-one-thing-altucher-145634868.html
"If you search the phrase “stagnant incomes” on the Internet you’ll find a slew of stories about how wages, median pay and income are languishing, and haven’t kept up with inflation for all but the highest paid.
So it should come as no surprise to learn that about three-quarters of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a new survey by Bankrate.com. The survey also found that about 27% of those polled had no savings at all and 50% had saved less than three-months worth of expenses, or not even half the six months worth that experts recommend.
Short on Savings, Americans Still Feeling Positive - It’s not all bad news though. Bankrate.com says people are starting to feel better about their finances."
Probably not for much longer...
The credit bubble has begun deflating. Good news for those who still have some savings left after 5 years of ZIRP. 10 year should yield a minumum of 2 points above REAL inflation. 10 year yields have at least another 200 basis points to go for the market to have any resemblence to a free market clearing price.
The FED should have let the market price risk/return back in late 2008. The last miserable 5 years would be behind us and there would be a more stable foundation for growth going forward.
even though my money is betting against this i find myself...strangely...rooting for you.
So Kunster = Flakmeister?
Who knew?
+ 1 lol
I am not as much of a curmudgeon, but thanks for one hell of a compliment....
Compliment, hahahaha. So its true.
Sorry typo *Kunstler.
You're certainly in the pantheon.
Ha! Well maybe. Though Flak can get really busy, and I honestly doubt someone who writes as much as JHK could pull it off due to the energy required.
But if it turned out to be true I think I'd be chuffed stupid.
Maybe they're 'TWINS'
~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MG1YaMq0Tk
You forgot to remind us that Canada is cold as $#!+ most of the time.
At least a Crustacean can assimilate in South America, unlike in Asia or Africa, where no matter how long you live there you're still an obvious foreigner. Just learn to 'peaki 'pani. Plata, oro?
Most Canadians live within 50 kms of the US border, not because we like the US, but thats the warmest part of the country. May I suggest southwest BC.
NO...NO...NO !!!
Don't send that mob of MORONs here.
It's terrible up in these god forsaken mountains... an awful place.
Tell them all go to Saltspring Island... it's Hippie Heaven there!
if it means a higher concentration of ZHers in southwest BC, I for one welcome it.
:)
Good point
Stay the F out.
So the Central Banks have created banking Frankenstiens....and don't know how to kill them. Those nice bankers....betting the US will default with the governments own money. It is ALIVE!
when in doubt "pile on with peak oil." this is nothing more...nor less either...than the break up of China "with the national security complexes of the world screaming all the way." there are only so many ideas out there folks. and of those "only a couple even work." gotta say been surprised at the workability of a bunch of these ideas the past few years...here's one: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fslr?source=search_general&s=fslr go figure. here's another: http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/tsla?source=search_general&s=tsla hmmm. "the highest of the high fliers is up .5% on the day." looks like "suburbia" wins. again. "it's not that Americans hate oil...it's that Americans can't stand paying for it." same goes for the friggin' car, the house and everything else. now what's the name of the bank again that can't handle the ETF redemptions? i missed those Bank Failure Friday reports that Hansen used to give on SA back in the Glory Daze. hell the don't even do that here. wtf? "the economy is recovering so well Detroit no longer exists." move along con gusto!
Meh,
Doom porn? In the UK we have $10 a gallon gas. Suburbia has still not imploded, you've a long way to go yet.
You might want to look at figure two here and tell us how do you think this turns out:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10029
Have you looked at british public and private debt lately?
Holding back the inevitable on credick, that can't last forever.
IIRC, a large part of that cost is actually taxes on fuel, which are then used to fund a large and efficient public transportation system, which in turn keeps UK and European suburbs alive.
The problem in America is not suburbs as such, though they are unsustainable as a rule. The problem in America is freeways, and the rolling fleet of cars and trucks that use them, and no other way to get around without. $4 gas here is a brake on the economy. The prospect of $6 is a nightmare. $10 would be suicide.
Americans are trapped in their suburbs without cheap gasoline. And the suburbs are a wasteland. The prospects for altering a modern disaster are fading fast.
Well Put Cougar. The sands are moving from the upper container to the lower container as time goes by and no changes have been made.
It is too late already.
Move next to a Chinese restaurant & start making yourself some bio-diesel out of their waste oil...
That is a one-person solution, not a suburban panacea.
Besides, when the owner of the restaurant sees what can be done with waste oil he'll keep it for himself. Or sell it to his neighbor at a premium.
Market forces, bitchez....
Remember, that supply and demand thingy. If more folks want to move into cities, then the price of land goes up and the cost of construction is greater. It costs more to build structures over 3 stories. Folks will calculate the trade off between higer occupancy costs of city living and higher transportation costs of suburban living.
The marketplace will adjust to higher oil prices. Those who drive less (retirees) or work from home will stay in the burbs. Those who work in the city will move to the city. Some jobs will migrate to burb locations. Peolpe will buy smaller vehicles if they need to commute, or there may be a market for electric or natural gas commuter cars.
The biggest trend today is that young adults generally do not want a suburban lifestyle - and they definitely do not want a rural lifestyle. Cities are booming as a result.
"The marketplace will adjust to higher oil prices."
The marketplace might. The economy most certainly will not. And we are talking about entire economies now that the energy future seems to be closing in.
Your local economy will or will not support your desired life style. If not, then maybe you can move. But maybe you cannot. When you cannot, the game is over, and you start over doing something else you hadn't planned on doing.
For most of the people reading this comment, the game is already over.
If in that case you cannot see where you fall in the spectrum of outcomes then you are in for a long series of very brutal and unpleasant surprises.
Cougar, you are hot today.
So far three of your comments have given me a deeply disturbing sick feeling where the truth in my soul resides.
Thank you. I am home with a summer cold (feeling better today) and mostly bored. Normally ZH doesn't get much of my time.
Feeling it in your soul is where it starts. From there, it migrates to your daily thinking. And from thinking about it you start to change how you live your life. You become more deliberate, determined, relentless.
More ruthless.
You change things and you don't care who notices, because you must. And then suddenly the bad feeling passes. Because you recognize that you are no longer part of the problem but part of the solution. In this way we may all save ourselves, as each becomes first uneasy then thoughtful then deliberate. Maybe it will be enough, in the end. If not then at least we will have each learned how to deal with heartache, and how to go forward no matter what.
IMHO the world is moving toward mega-cities aka city-states. huge numbers of people living in huge cities serviced by transit with food shipped in from the mega-farms and cheap toys shipped in from corporate maquiadoras in mexico, china, philipines, etc.
Rural land for Montsanto and Cargill - and for estates for the ultra rich. Better yet - since manufacturing is outsourced - the countryside will be cleaned up and the water pristine for the rich!
Suburbs will beg and pay to be included in a nearby city-state so they can get funding to pay for schools, transit, etc. If you don't live in a mega-city suburb, you must find a way to get to work, get to groceries, and pay for school when gas is $20/gallon and public schools close for lack of funding.
The plan is to pull us off the land, people. Farmers are libertarian, contrarian by nature. Their policitical clout saved the U.S once. So their politiical clout has been euthanized by big Agri. And without knowledge to feed oneself, you are worse than just a slave.
That is a common enough vision for the near future. I held it myself at one time.
But here is the kicker, and it rules. That vision requires a really unimaginable amount of cheap energy. Big cities need huge amounts of energy to replace natural services like rainfall and cooling trees. And the food to be grown far away will need a lot of energy inputs in place of labor and additional natural services like insectivores. Not to mention transportation to and distribution inside the city.
It can mostly be done with electricity. That is the only saving grace. Big Ag has huge fossil fuel inputs at present but maybe that could be changed.
Point though is, we cannot get there from here without inexpensive fossil inputs at every step of the conversion, and we are running out of those now. The last fossil reserves we can easily get will likely be squandered getting at less-available reserves so as to keep people thinking that nothing is going to change.
Until of course everything changes at once.
Sorry but I don't see us making that journey together. Some isolated few will figure it out. Most will simply suffer never knowing that another way was once possible, but slipped away.
Cougar, They still haven't told me what that factory that makes D9 Cats to build/repair those cities will be powered by. Won't be from a PV farm or Wind Turbine.
It's like Dr. Albert Bartlett's lilypad on a pond progression.
The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See (part 1 of 8)You'll just have to watch to see what's so damn amazing about what he (Albert Bartlett) has to say.
The numbers don't add up.
Or better yet, Like a Marathoner starting to realize he is thirsty, It's too late at that point. He could not rehydrate himself fast enough before the symptoms of dehydration take affect.
The UK is geographically small relative to the U.S. You also have an established mass transit system. I know people that commute over 200 miles a day in the D.C. Metro area. I don't think that's unusual based on the traffic.
Double post
The difference is you also pay for Government services when buying a gal. of gas. And you have a small country and don't have to go far to get anywhere.
Short squeeze, lets see if it gets going....
Everyone race to your bank and take out $10,000 in cash.......ready......GO!!!!
Should I get a consumer loan or???
Shorter Kuntsler
"All you city folks is gonna get it" Roscoe P. Coltrane laugh optional
JHK has fairly consistently pointed out that Israel is in a terrible position going forward, and I do agree with him.
Whether or not he supports Israel is a different question. I consider JHK to be realistic and this comes from his background as a journalist.
Remember that when push comes to shove American Jews will choose America over Israel, because first and foremost they are about self preservation. The religious and zionist stuff is just a sideshow.
It's not impossible to envision a future in which there's mass migration of Jews from Israel to America if they decide to cut and run and cede Israel to the Arabs. NYC, DC, and LA are already the centers of Jewish power in the world and they won't want to give that up to crowd into Tel Aviv and Jerusalem which could get bombed out any second.
I have some Jewish friends, and many call Israel home after emigrating there from Russia or eastern Europe. I have no beef with Israel at all.
But Israel is toast. Fact.
Yes most will probably come to the US. It would be suicide to return to Europe or Mother Russia. I don't know what will become of them, but they are a hardy bunch and take the world as it comes, so I think they will be fine.
They are also great fighters. If I ever find myself in a dark alley facing an angry mob of homiez I hope the guy to my side is Israeli.
I agree Isreali soldiers are who you want on your side because they are so well trained and merciless.They are true believers that their God gave them that land and fight without concern for their own lives. Kinda like Muslim suicide bombers do...
Takes one to know one.
That wouldn't happen without causing a nuclear winter.
The United States is the New Israel of Bible prophecy.
According to some views, the Lost Tribes of Israel.
Judah is only one tribe of the twelve tribes of ancient Israel.
Whether the Jewish State of Israel is abandoned, or becomes officially a part of the United States Of Israel, who knows ?
Yet somehow the Jewish NWO (JWO) that is seeking the destruction of the United States does not understand that Bible prophecy about Israel as a people and a land, relative to the Jewish people and a Jewish tribal land.
Somehow Jews falsely believe that Bible prophecy only applies to Jews, and not to all the twelve tribes of Israel.
Vermin here.
You see the thing is, when someone lies they often "sneak in" the lie among a bunch of truth.
Whenever anyone starts in on the "peak oil" bullshit I know exactly what they're up to. The mad dash to control Middle East oil is a mad rush to control it's output. In other words to control - and mitigate - its production. It's a grand illusion to prop up the scarcity myth. If the spice were scarce, it's price would be high and it just isn't. In fact it's really amazing the histrionics that are used to prop up the myth.
Then the myth is breaking the Eurozone apart, eviscerating Japan, and imploding the mighty US economic engine.
Pretty good job, for a figment.
Geological Facts are Geological Facts.
Visit www.TheOilDrum.com for a couple months if you like reality based Non-Fiction science.
You can lead a man to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
I think that most of us get it actually. Everyone understands the limits here. What they cannot then do is make the moral and ethical leap to admitting the game is over, and we have to change.
It's easier to just scream denial, like a 3-yo who didn't get to ride the mechanical pony at the fair, even if screaming it doesn't change the situation that the game is over and we have to change.
It is sadness that makes us scream. Sadness mired in guilt, because we did it. Sadness and guilt combined with the horrible realization that we have created a natural world and global economy that will in all likelihood eat our children alive. Nobody wants that. Few talk about it. Almost none can face it. Of those who can finally face it, their first rational reaction is frozen horror.
We have a long way to go. Going where, I cannot say. And I don't see how we will get there at all.
The game is over. We have to change.
But we have been lied to our entire lives, and now we are supposed to 'trust the experts' and just take orders? Thats the part I have trouble with.
Its too late to do a seamless, painless transition from one type of society to the next. Given the problem of corrupt government legislating a solution is just not an option, nor is forming an international body.
And I would suggest an honest financial system would go a long way towards helping humanity find solutions (because you know, thats what efficient capital allocation is supposed to do).
I understand and agree Cougar. Went thru the 7 stages for the last ten years. Knowing what I lived thru, none of my grandchildren will see. From the late 50's till now. Watched it happen, was part of it. Felt the dispair and sorrow (deeply) of the ramifications.
I also have empthy enough to understand and feel the pain that you talk about.
So you think I don't buy "Peak Oil" because I'm not thinking? Or I'm incapable of it, or something? It's funny - I get ad hominem attacks one one topic only: peak oil.
Anyway, I'm glad you are so into geological facts. Have you actually read "King" Hubbert's ... "science?"
Whatever. You go on believing that dead dinosaurs made oil. You go on believing it's really, really scarce.
It's science. If you don't understand it then you are uneducated in the sciences. No big deal most people are that way, you can fix that as anyone can, in the meantime stay clear of the science or be prepared for people to inform you that you are arguing about something regarding which you know very little if anything.
You can think of it as an attack. Fine be that way. Or think of it as simple advice, like a teacher would have given.
"Look it up, learn something."
Ignorance concerning important things is embarrassing and debilitating. Get to work.
I'm uneducated in science. Heh heh. Oooooh, I'm not so sure. Whatever. Let's stop talking about Seize Mars' education or standing in science. Let's talk about a whole bunch of Russians pumping oil out of the ground, 40,000 feet deep. A lot of dinosaurs down there? Speaking of science, how about Titan, you know, a Saturnian moon. Lots of hydrocarbons - no dinosaurs. Ok closer to home. How about that crazy, crazy well in Viet Nam. The "white tiger" well. Yikes.
Anyways come on. They've been saying the crude is running out for decaeds, but they keep finding new places to pump it out of.
Typically at this point, whoever is "educating me in science" usually starts calling me a homo, or Jew ( as a perjorative), or both. So in advance, to that I say "thanks." I like Jews and homos, and I'd be honored to be either or both.
Let's come at this from another direction. What if Oil were really, really scarce. That would be a good thing, if you were in the business of printing little green claimchecks in return for it. Right? So saying "oil is scarce" is a lot like saying "paper money has value, or at least utility," right?
I am wondering why is The Finance comitte is discussing how to save failing banks (who pays the bill?). I doubt this is a mere schedulled discussion. but more of a ripple effect in the making
watch this report.
http://mcccode.com/forum/topics/failing-banks-eu-to-consolidate-policy-o...
Oh noooes cliff edges
cliff edges can be fun
if you have the right gear...
The peons on CNBS are already talking BTFD as they watch their YTD earnings evaporate! They keep blaming the Chairsatan for the market drop, and I keep lmao.(as they wipe the sweat from their brows)
It couldn't be from charts like these.
Spain 10-Year [ 5.166 ] 5.093 5.167 4.937 0.072 1.43% 17:52:02
Italy 10-Year [ 4.873 ] 4.806 4.873 4.648 0.068 1.39% 17:51:25
U.S. 10-Year [ 2.587 ] 2.542 2.667 2.525 0.045 1.78% 17:45:30
CNBS...And we are off the lows....time to buy, buy, buy it all...
We'll end positive.
wonder....
how many billions
it cost the Fed
to get the Dow
to close green today...
it always happens at the eleventh hour.
According to the internet the Dow dropped about 1% today.
Doom porn is right.
Financialization is the new globalism. Totally meaningless words.
Serenity now!!!
"and on the way back up out of that dark age will gold be of any service"
And that's the problem that's even harder for humans to embrace.
We're not coming back up.
The collapse is going to be permanent. Elevation from a low level requires easy oil. It's gone, as will be food transport for 7 billion.
Well, permanent in that enclaves lose transportation and contact other than radio with the outside world. That will be about 20 million people in the US. Maybe 800 million global.
Drugs won't transport. Over the centuries we'll lose one enclave after another to disease or cataclysm.
Extinction is likely. Few thousand years, maybe.
That's what it means to lose oil before you have faster than light propulsion.
My veggie patch is planted and coming up nicely. I'll have enough spuds and onions (plus other stuff) for the year in my basement this September.
Potatoes have the highest calorie density per acre of any non exotic crop.
No fat or protein tho, so add peanuts.
And let this be the last time you mention this to ANYONE.
But sweet potatoes have many more nutrients.
This issue is 2000 cals/person X 365. I hope that's what he meant for a year's worth rather than just what he uses to supplement grocery store meat.
You gotta have enough for 2000/person X 365, and that takes a few acres. Nutrients are a long term problem. Starvation is 3 weeks.
Nutrients are a long term problem.
great point, but remember, cals do not necessarily = nutrients (most likely not these days). as noted above, it's all about the soils the food is grown in & the chelated minerals in those soils. easy to remember this way: a healthy soil is like a MOM = Minerals, Organic matter, Microbes, all balanced. and the more nutrient dense the food you eat is, the less cals you need to consume.
p.s. tip from clif high : if worse comes to worst, suck on grass, don't starve.
While only 2% of a potato is protein, the protein is high-quality and the potato boasts a good carbohydrate to protein ratio.
Anyone notice the NY Fed website is down?
Wow, the revelations just keep pouring in.
http://www.wnd.com/2013/06/nsa-has-total-access-via-microsoft-windows/
I've always suspected they had a back door. How many other governments use Windows? If this is true, wait til they become aware of this.
Diversity & ZIRP always trumps the laws of thermodynamics, they have a fact sheet that says so
it is better for civilization to be going down the drain than to be coming up it.
Get your packraft and head up north and be prepared to live with the bears.
I hope they think to turn off those 437 operating nuke reactors before the diesel gets torched and the lights go out.
The problem with JHK is that he never balances his equations.
It is easy to make the mistake that suburbs and cities don't work if you keep thinking you have to share oil with 7 billion people.
But we are not going to be sharing it with 7 billion, at most 2 to 3 billion will still be at the oil table getting their cut. And that is only if everyone cooperates. That is not likely so now you are down to 1-2 billion people max carrying on in some sort of semi functional nation states with working fiat exchanges/debt markets. The have's will have cheap gas, suburbs and cities, the have not's will have nothing....... and I mean NOTHING.
Who is in the "Haves'"camp? The USSA and the USSR for sure. Who is in the "haves'not" camp? anyone that does not fall under the graces of either the USSA or USSR.
Oil production is and/or will be going down in both USSR and USSA. It's been going down in USSA since 1970. USSR production will soon start to slide. They both currently produce roughly the same amount, for roughly the same population. USSR's benefit is that they didn't build their infrastructure around copious cheap oil.
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
Oil production requires oil workers that don't have to sleep with one eye open all the time. WTHSTF you can be certain that "production" will fall off to zero everywhere else ecept these two places. Oil platforms require massive amounts of binary 1's and 0's to keep running.
Don't confuse capacity with ability. You can burn all the tar sands you want in Canada in peace and quiet (if they can' keep the rivers from flooding), Putin can keep the taps running in Russia. What you can't do is manage to eek out anything useful in terms of BPD in the middle east, africa, asia, south america or deep sea when bullets are flying and no one will lend you the debt to produce.
The only reason you can do an oil change in your suburban driveway of your 3.5 bed/2.5 bath "mortgage instrument" with a quart of refined oil in your hand pulled out of the ground from someplace in the third world from the other side of the planet is because debt can be issued and violence can be contained.
There is a reason why the USSA has an overcapaity for refineing of crude oil of various grades. It is because what matters is the ability to refine product. Anyone thinking that dollar hegemnony is doomed should realize that fossil fuel only functions with the capacity to refine. What highly skilled oil worker is going to work at a refinery in the middle of hells ktichen where you can't get power to stay on and someone is always tossing mortars into your sleeping bunker.
If you are on a part of the planet where modern infrastructure is vunerable to the streeses of civil disorder brough about by the collapse of fiat credit watchout. If you are in the USSA you don't have to worry because there are not enough citizens to cause civil disorder. If you are in the USSR you don't have the right or the ability to do so, Putin would prefer if you were more like the USSA dolts and just shut up and buy things.
Why do you assume US production is going to continue at high levels? Peak Oil is going to look like a shark fin ... everywhere. All those Bakken wells are economic only because of Wall Street financing and ZIRP.
I've worked with some pretty good Persian engineers, I'm sure they could keep their oil flowing and when the dollar dies why would (more like, how could) the US remain in the Middle East casuing all the problems? It will probably be safer there.
What do you mean there aren't enough citizens in the US to cause social disorder? What will happen to LA and New York when the feed gets cut off? The US is going to be one of the worst places to be, not because on an absolute scale they will be worst off, but because no one will be prepared for it and they all have a chip on their shoulder, and guns in their glove boxes.
South America will probably be the best place to be.
Agreed...
Social disorder occurred in the appearance of the Rodney King riots some years ago that started in So. Calif. and spread across the nation.
Rioters and looters were crashing store windows and taking as much as they could carry and even stopped to smile for the cameras and give interviews when they were stopped by reporters. (Dumb dumbs)
Philadelphia, and other large cities had similar Rodney King riots but on a smaller scale but with the same rioting and looting taking place.
During some of the interviews with the looters they were asked the reason for their actions. Was it because of the Rodney King decision?... I don't know who that even is. I just want to get my share of the stuff!
These were small scale riots by disorganized masses, Mob riots and mob violence may strike us soon and may strike us hard, and they may appear over something perceived to be insignificant... An increase in transportation fees?... An unlawful arrest or killing by police... How about a nationwide Black Friday sale at Wal Mart?...
With criminals passing our laws and trying to tell us what is right and what is wrong, is it any wonder that this generation may live to see blood in the streets from some unexpected event?...
Mark,
Wall street (aka global fiat/corporate financing) keeps every oil platform on the planet running. ZIRP makes the whole world go round, not just New York.
Mark, I need you to imagine the irony of 4-5 billion people siting in the dark, starving to death and thirsty, always in fear of being hacked to pieces with a machete in a civil war while Jared "Consumer" American loses 150 lbs walking to Subway with an EBT card and an AR-15 on his back?
How do you have riots in the USAA? We throw away 40% of the food, we waste 70% of the energy on pointless consumerism. 97% of the population is within walking distance of an EBT authorized "caloric" distribution unit (aka fast food joint) We have established "programs" for keeping un-employed people from rioting. Labor participation continues to fall, "social" welfare continues to rise. It took YEARS for any type of civil protest to ferment for the "crash ver. 1.0" and that went away. If the majority of the population is engaged in useless endeavors (consumerism) and you waste most of everything you make, it stands to reason that when push comes to shove you can get by with a hell of a lot less.
The USSA is chock full of consumers with no motivation to resist apathy, zero critical thinking skills taught to them. They re-elect the same people they "hate" to have in charge. They say nothing about living in a Stasi "state", they only protest when the local cable company threatens to cut off their favorite reality station or sport venue. They only listen to official media sources who tell them nothing but spend all day saying things. When it is more important for the majority of your populace to know weather or not Kim had a c-section or vaginal delivery rather than why their "Liberty" is expendable to their "Safety", you don't have much to fret about in the beltway. ZH is not the homepage for the majority of consumers in the USSA.
It is a lot easier for the "Persian" engineer working as a "vested" member of a public employee retirement funded County/Municipal Water and Power to keep USSA consumers shuttered in their homes watching free 24/7 news with subsidized electricity, water, sewage and mass transit to the local fast food joint. The same Persian engineer will have to contend with a lot more stresses to do that same back home. Iran imports gasoline, Iraq can't keep the lights on. Need I go on.
The USSA only needs to keep consumers scared and fed and in their homes. If everyone is armed, no one will venture outside. If the EBT keeps them fed they don't need to go to work. If nobody (66%) needs to work, you need less gas. If it is dangerous to go outside then you stay at home. You do not protest. You stay at home and stay scared and are great full that you have an EBT meal. Movies on demand, your kid goes to school on a web page in their bedroom. No mass shootings, no bad kids giving them drugs. Stay home stay safe, stay out of the governments way.
The USSA will protect you! AMAZON.com will deliver food to you. The Unified School District will give your kid an iPAD so precious Jr. can get an "education" in the safety of his room. You are safe in your home, now go back to watching the Kardashians.
The USSA has a huge head start on the rest of the governments. The USSA can cheat on caloric production, most of the consumers were pre-fattened for the upcoming culling. The USSA can even pass it off as a "Get Healthy" campaign. Fat unemployed America is put on a diet, they have to walk to the Fast Food place to get a healthy 700 calories per meal while the rest of the planet full of skinny people scrambles for the scraps left on the table.
The only people that will have jobs in the USSA will work for the government. They will happily do their jobs for the "public pension" and will never do anything to jeopardize that pension. They will watch over those rabble-rousers on ZH.
I don't assume anything you suggest. Production WILL FALL in the USSA, but so will demand. Bakken is economical because the USSA doesn't need the 5th Fleet cruising the Great Lakes to keep the Lakota Tribe Casino and Spa "in line". The Tar Sands are economical for that same reason also. (See South Park)
Great post.
I see the whole system is very frail. You mentioned (Oil Workers) one variable of the whole. Many unique parts mfg'ed by one or two source around the wold.
Gonna be interesting. A financial implosion, letters of Credit, JIT supply chains, specialized parts vendors in many parts of the world...
Like throwing a ball bearing in a complex machine. You might not be able to predicts the exact failures in which sequence, but you can relatively predict that all hell's gonna break lose shortly.
The econmic model they call "Just in Time" is misslabled. It should be called "Better, NOT EVER!! Be Late"
If we don't get on the electric car bus soon and in a big way, we are doomed. Air car technology, air hybrid, GET ON IT PROPLE!! Oh I forgot, big oil does not want this to happen. Screw you big oil!!
Most people could get by fine with an electric bike. I have built several, you can buy them at many bike shops. I see them on the road all the time these days.
Get over the idea that you need or deserve to be served by tons of steel traveling at 10% of the speed of sound. Was never a good idea, it ended up costing all of us a fortune, and is a way of life having no actual future.
Pretty tough way to:
- take the 2 kids and the dog to visit gramma or the beach,
- take groceries home
- travel in rain or snow; though.
Tough means you don't do it.
-- don't need to visit grandma so often, or the beach at all. My family rents a car for those, once a year.
-- make more trips to the store, using baskets or a trailer.
-- rain is easy, snow is to be avoided. At some point nature tells you what you can do anymore.
Sure fossil inputs made those easy. An electric car will keep a few of us doing whateverthefuck we want whenevertheyfuck we want to do it. But the rest are going to be hoofing it.
And that. Changes. Everything.
FYI:
Aeroflot flight AFL150/SU150 which Edward Snowden may or may not be on board has just crossed into US air space from Canada, slightly west of Cleveland, Ohio and heading south.
Edit, 25th June update:
- well that flight landed in Havana - after modifying its flightpath en route to fly directly over US territory (Cleveland, Atlanta, Tampa etc) - but apparently Snowden was NOT on board when it arrived. Today, the world's media is trying to find out exactly where he is. Is he still in Russia? Russian FM says he never crossed into Russian territory, so he could have evaporated from "air side" in Moscow airport when he arrived there from HK, if in fact he was on the flight from HK. Meanwhile, Obama's thugs are issuing implicit threats to anybody/everybody who helps him.
The Bakken Formation has approximately 750 billion to 900 billion barrels of oil with 3 percent extraction possible, 25 to 27 billion barrels.
Drilling activity in Montrail County in North Dakota does show promise.
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/stats/Mountrail.pdf
Google Leigh Price, Bakken study.
http://www.undeerc.org/News-Publications/Leigh-Price-Paper/pdf/TextVersion.pdf
Peak Oil is a real phenomenon.
The media throws around these numbers to an unsuspecting populace, not pointing out that 27 billion barrels is about 4 years of US oil consumption.
We all know it isn't going to last, but might as well burn it all then worry about it later. That's what's happening.
Are you refering to Oil, our Fiat, or society in general?
your thoughtful comment applys to all.
Guns and ammo are the only items of value.
Long live the revolution.
Now, everybody knows who the enemy is right?
Alright then, 10, 9, 8, 7 ....
"The so-called economy depends on financialization, since it is no longer based on manufacturing things of value"
And this is where I stopped reading. I'm fed up with guest post submissions that insist on saying the US doesn't manufacture anything of value. I'm not going to keep going over the same ground over and over again, anyone who writes that drivel is dead wrong.
The US has many issues but the inability to manufacture things of value isn't one of them.
The bulk of it may have shifted to outsourcing overseas, but in most cases we're making higher quality goods. American Apparel, CUTCO cultlary, Stetson hats, audio research, comes to mind. All make things of value. Can anyone name an American made product that is total crap? Even t-shirt printers who are using American Apparel are 100% made in America and far superior to their cheap competition at Walmart.
Bombs. We make great bombs - and lots of them
Facebook, Twitter, Paris Hilton, Reality TV, Porn, etc etc... get it?
not inability, but in reality there is nothing as all has been exported for cheap labor and easier environmental regulations. Look at the manufacturing base from 1950 to present. Nuff said...
Tyler or somebody, please answer this question: Who owns the NSA? According to Wikipedia it is a private company. Unable to find any ownership info.
This article neglected to discuss Uranium. When the nuclear warheads in Russia have all been decommissioned, where does the Uranium for the world's reactors come from? Only around 30% of needed Uranium is produced each year. Not nearly enough to keep them all going.
Japan, France and Britain who use nuclear reactors to supply a very high percentage of their electricity are screwed. Countries will have to out-bid each other for the fuel. Britain will probably have to open up all those old coal mines again.
I have a feeling that the world's population is going to be considerably smaller in a couple of generations (which is all part of the "master-plan" anyway).
What do you think the current generation of reactors is running on?
Check out USEC, it is the only US company that performs enrichment for fuel to see how that business has gone...
As for the Brits, most of those coal mines ain't ever reopening... You are aware the British coal production peaked in 1914?
PS There is no master plan, the trajectory has been well known for nigh on 40 years
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limits_to_Growth
So if we are to assume massive curreny collapse (to potential total worthlessness) as part of this process, what does that then leave us.
The UN will mandate a new single world currency.
One world currency = one world government.
The elite will be the owners of the hard assets who are able to guard them through strength. Oil, minerals, land. These will be the drivers.
I don't think it will get that far by any means, but that would be the route I would imagine if the whole thing totally blew up.
I'll give you a hint... there ain't no conspiracy behind this...
Why would you want to bring down the very system that allows you to be on top?
The point of these out-there theories is that it lets someone off the hook for their lifestyle choices.
"The devil made me do it."
We need a devil as an excuse for our sins, or to explain random madness. As such we are now set to have a great dance with the devil now, for a lot of years to come.
Yes, that connection never really dawned on me, and it must be applicable at some level...
haha the devil made them do it. More like "they do it for the devil". Fucking handmaiden politicians and bankers running the show on behalf of their benefactors, lining up to see who can stoop the lowest.
Time for some Whiskey Myers: Ballad of a Southern Man
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gj7Zft8aiRc
<snip>
They grind us up in a big machine
Feed us all all the same beliefs
Holy dollar and a credit card
But we got a way of doin things
And no bankers gonna steal from me
They want to tear it all apart