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Kyle Bass Hunkers Down: "We Dramatically Reduce Portfolio Risk"
Kyle Bass goes to Japan and finds all as expected...
After traveling through Japan for the past couple of weeks and with their economic experiment at the forefront of the financial press, it is an appropriate time to give an update on Hayman’s current thoughts regarding the island nation. My travels took me from Kyoto, the cultural heart of Japan to Tokyo, Japan’s financial epicenter. I met with all kinds of thoughtful and wonderful people throughout my trip – from tea service with Zen priests in Kyoto to the metaphorical Zen priests of finance in Tokyo. The Japanese people are some of the most inviting, respectful, and thoughtful people with whom I have ever had the opportunity to spend time. There is no doubt that culturally and historically, Japan is one of the richest countries in the world.
Unfortunately, I had this overriding feeling of sorrow and empathy for most of the people with whom I met because my conclusions regarding their potential financial fate were reinforced on this trip. Most large and complex problems do not have a single cause, and there are countless decisions and circumstances that have led Japan to its current situation. While there is no formulaic determination for the solvency of a sovereign balance sheet (despite many attempts to develop one), the inescapability of economic gravity remains constant. Japan and its leadership face an unsolvable equation in my opinion. The structural problems in Japan have existed for years and were evident during our original analysis of the situation in late 2009, but it is fascinating to observe the progression of the decline over time and the recent broad acknowledgement of their plight.
And also learns something new, if not unexpected...
Despite the abundant quantitative data indicating the fragility of the financial system and the risks posed by further indebtedness, very few individuals in Tokyo have expressed a willingness to embrace the difficult choices required to resolve this looming crisis. During my trip to Kyoto, I was introduced to a Japanese phrase that encapsulated the strangely fatalistic viewpoint that many local Japanese market participants have toward the twin threats of debt and deflation. This concept explains a resignation to the unfolding of events and a willingness to submit to this unfortunate reality rather than to fight a seemingly inevitable or impossible challenge. It seems apposite to reprint it here as we watch the beginning of this endgame in the Japanese debt markets unfold:
“Shikata ga nai”
It cannot be helped.
But perhaps most interesting are Bass' thoughts on China:
The speed and depth of the Chinese policy response will help determine the severity and duration of this crisis. If the Chinese address the issue quickly and move decisively to rein in credit expansion and accept a period of much lower growth, they may be able to use the government and People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet to cushion the adjustment in the economy. If, however, they continue on the current path and allow this deterioration to reach its natural and logical limit, we will likely see a full?scale recession as well as a collapse in asset and real estate prices sometime next year.
China’s direct contribution to global growth is enormous, but perhaps equally as important is its role in generating growth in developed and emerging economies. A slowdown, whether significant or extreme, in the Chinese economy heralds very bad news for asset prices around the world. A growth crisis centered in Asia will further exacerbate the instability and volatility in Japan and have a devastating impact on second derivative marketplaces such as Australia, Brazil and developing markets in South East Asia. The combination of rich valuations and further threats to growth has led us to dramatically reduce risk in the portfolio and actively position ourselves to withstand the uncertainty and instability ahead.
In short, Bass is once again hunkering down.
Full Hayman Capital investor letter below, courtesy of Valuewalk:
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“Maybe each human being lives in a unique world, a private world different from those inhabited and experienced by all other humans. . . If reality differs from person to person, can we speak of reality singular, or shouldn't we really be talking about plural realities? And if there are plural realities, are some more true (more real) than others? What about the world of a schizophrenic? Maybe it's as real as our world. Maybe we cannot say that we are in touch with reality and he is not, but should instead say, His reality is so different from ours that he can't explain his to us, and we can't explain ours to him. The problem, then, is that if subjective worlds are experienced too differently, there occurs a breakdown in communication ... and there is the real illness.”
PKD
trust you to put these words here.
but of course there can never be one singular reality - how could there be when each observer has their own unique perspective? with their own unique (apparent) backstory, based on their meme-orised history? absolutely no two histories alike, ever. . .
that's the plot - that IS the reality. once that awareness is fully understood, the noise fades to background.
particle. *waves*
Ah yes CA. Luckily for me being a Pisces I am free of the sensory apparatus. " fish don't acknowledge the water, it is reality for them" as you said ;-) I am thankful for this. Worrying about the nature of reality would add too much to my overwhelmingly overflowing pile. I can't even manage to handle the inner struggles inherent with my 12th house bursting with planetary activity. Mr miffed works diligently simplifying our lives to prevent my head from exploding ( he has no planets in the 12th). I will leave the reality contemplations to those who are better suited to the task. Cheers!
Miffed;-)
always remember Miffed, that the Pisces archetype is balanced with the opposite sign of Virgo - hiding in details, looking for the singular, identifying the "one thing" and focusing attention there. . .
until Pisces sweeps the one detail up in a wave of ultimate reality - there is no One thing, only an endless multitude of All things - to acknowledge the perfection of All Oppositions, All Manifestations in Reality.
that's your task. to focus on letting go. no opinions, only acceptance of All That Is.
available to anyOne, of course, as we all embody the archetypes, it's just your personal Red Pill.
*smiles*
You describe my problem well. Perhaps you have intimate experience here? For years my husband was mystified with my lack of ability making decisions when I finally found a way to explain it. When most observe infinite dancing lights on a screen it eventually coalesces into "static". For me, each point has relevance, importance. It cannot be generalized. So this leaves me paralyzed and mesmerized. The only hope out of my mental trap is letting go... quite a challenging path for me! But that's the point is it not? Embrasing our personal as well as societal red pills. Perhaps I should find pity on those who do neither. Thanks for the mental and spiritual gymnastics. ;-)
Miffed;-)
remember, we all have each planet archetype somewhere in our charts - look at yours, at the houses, with the different planet's glyph on each cusp. . . so we each embody the whole.
where each personal planet lies is our individual perspective, that which contributes to our unique way of being in the world, our "personality" to be within.
I like how you've described yours - the paralyzed & mesmerized is Virgo/Pisces to the max, heh.
but you have other ways of coping - your Aries stuffs powers you through things when you need to, defends your stance. . . and then the opposite, Libra, re-minds you that each person has their own way of be-ing, and to learn to give & share according to their reality, not fighting to impose your will on theirs, a useless task when we realise we are meant to be unique, yet inter-connected in many ways.
we do what we can with what we are, it's all we have, and plenty!
"It is what it is"
The American version of the same POV expressing nothing but defeat. Frick, if mankind had always resisted the temptation to better their status quo, we would still live like the Croods. Thank goodness, some have a spirit and sense of adventure to take a chance, take a risk and get out from under their rock - literally.
On this 4th of July more Americans are living under their rock than ever before in the history of this once great nation.
"You can't stand in the way of progress" is one such mindset passed down from prior generations. And don't forget the classic "You can't fight city hall."
Those of us who say "We can't do something" are really saying "I/we don't want to do something."
There is always light at the end of the tunnel. Gosh, I didn't realize the population seems to be split into bears and bulls by genetic make-up?
"Remember, remember, the fifth of November...."
Now get your ass off the couch and pursue a little independence on this day. I'm headed out to work in our orchard.
It's interesting that the Japanese have a phrase for things they can not control. In the US we have Congress...
indeed we do.
CONGRESS:
1 a : the act or action of coming together and meetingb : coitus
CD,
The statement " it can't be helped" though fatalistic does imply the the recognition of a problem. My observations of local perceptions appear to be more accurately summed up with the statements " there is no problem" or " things are getting better, give it time". Ignorance, willful or not, is far worse IMHO than simply thinking you are powerless to effect change. Our society has not even achieved awareness which is the most astounding fact of all.
Miffed;-)
a subtle but very distinctive difference indeed, good call miffed.
"there is no problem" means it coincides with my morality.
Thus: no worries.
"Shikata ga nai". It even sounds like, "Shit happens".
Say it with a shrug, and it's less about Bass's fatalism than an acceptance of woe beyond one's control. Running around like headless chickens and screaming ain't going to make their debts disappear. I might say the same thing in their position.
Dress it up as an astute investment risk taking advantage of an insane system that he does not control or own, but I find Bass's ultimate profiteering from human misery in the form of jump risks on JGBs, well it leaves a bad taste. He just earned himself a couple of bps on a few billion dollars just by confirming his lack of confidence on Japan. Not his fault I know - I am sure he's telling it as he sees it, and I agree that the Japanese economy is fucked, but how a man earns his bread speak volumes about his character.
I reckon the Chinese are about to have a Bear Stearn moment, looking at their interbank rates, and the NPLs will come home to roost. But derailing their entire economy? Doubtful, although they might consider firing all the lawyers and financiers from their politburo and replace them with engineers again. You can rarely go wrong with people who don't lie for a living.
dance the darkness
It reads "Show' ga nai, or Sh?ganai"
"Watashi ga iu no purinto"
I love google translate lol
"this attitude is exclusively endemic to the Japanese culture"
Say what? I guess every American I meet, not to mention everyone from everywhere else, is secretly Japanese?
This is a feature of every human culture in which there is any degree of inequality for any nontrivial span of time, i.e. ALL of them. People rationalize their (real or perceived) victimhood.
The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
Australia is going to feel much pain I suspect. They been living high on the hog [or should I say high on the Roo] with very low interest rates, robust exports, and massive housing subsidies (like $16,000 handout for new house buyers and very close to No Doc mortgages).
Distortions in the extreme.
Captain Glen says we need rising prices to boost construction - it appears the RBA is publicaly & explictly targeting an even greater bubble: RBA: House prices must lift to raise construction. Minsky momement dead ahead Captain Glen.
Europe's largest fund Amundi is going into cash
http://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/fonds/nachrichten/raus-aus-aktien-e...
Exit from equities and bonds citing much lower global growth than anticipated.
Mainly cash and PMs can't be a bad portfolio over the next few decades.
for economy to survive in its present set up, there has to be ever increasing amount of oil on the market, and demand.
+1000000
Happy to see that someone understands the TRUE fundamentals. Maybe the Japanese really do get this, that the System has no fixes because its fundamental premise (perpetual growth on a finite planet) is massively flawed.
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
? Richard Buckminster Fuller
thanks, bankers trying to increase demand without increasing energy supplies is really a trick too far.
Long Bucky balls.
At least no mention of "xenophobic" Japan having to let in hordes of third world immigrants to 'save' their economy.
The Japanese people are some of the most inviting, respectful, and thoughtful people ever whose sovereign debt I have seen fit to sell; and to denigrate ad tedium to whomever would listen.
So many zombie companies floating around in Japan. Just picture what NY city would look like and all of the ressources needed to deal with it if bodies would not decompose at all. That's their economy, zombie, cumbersome, companies not decomposing.
yep, in Japan they pay people to pretend to work, in the West you pay them welfare not to
Between the state-sponsored goobers and the crony capitalists, we do plenty of both in the western world.
a few additional relevant Japanese concepts:
Kamo
Kamo is a type of especially tasty wild duck that makes the thousands of marshes and literally millions of ponds of rural Japan its home every winter, where it feeds on rich wild grains and grasses. It quickly gets very fat and slow to move or fly, and becomes very easy to hunt. In business, a Kamo is someone worth taking advantage of, who is inexperienced, a sucker or pushover, easy prey. There is a special type of Kamo who is said to "bring his own onions" for cooking. (Most "investors")
Tsuru no hitokoe
When a flock of cranes flies into a feeding ground, there may appear to be simple chaos; however, there is always one crane who stands watch. When danger of any kind approaches, all it takes is one word from that crane, and the entire flock takes off in absolute unison, with no laggards. In business there is always one person in the organization whose word is law, whose voice when heard is obeyed without question by all. His voice is the tsuru no hitokoe. (Kyle Bass)
aya eeweemilakakoki, bitchez.
Sorry, wrong cry of the crane.
If I look around, it sure feels like "Shikata ga nai" is around here, too. At least 85 percent of the sheeple in Europe seem totally happy turning into debt slaves.
Interesting, we've heard rumours again in Cyprus tonight that not all is well. I suspect that the situation being portrayed is actually 'far far worse than expected"........
Something has to give, it's a question of when, not if.
(spits on the ground out of helplessness and starts whistling "Que Sera, Sera")
Show me one Japanese city that looks like Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City, Chicago, Baltimore, DC, etc., and I will begin to feel sorry for them.
Until then the decline of the Japanese people has been highly exaggerated.
Japan is an integration. It has become highly dependent on the outside world. An island country, lots of people, little energy and natural resources... Yeah, the US might look like crap, but given it has what Japan does not have, it will at least not end up feeling like total crap (over the mid-term; in the long-term we're all fucked unless/until we become more sustainable).
NOTE: This should in no way be viewed as any support for large cities.
Japan doesn't have a population that literally goes ape shit as soon as you cut their EBT cards and other bennies when the teets are sucked dry.
Much of America is on life support and many require a huge amount of calories on a daily basis to function. Japan is older and is more sustainable than America ever will be - again.
cleanest shirt in the laundry basket
Abe's reelection means the 'Changing of the Constitution'?
Why is this important: Too... 'Weaponize the Nation with Nuclear Armament`s'!
As the world becomes volatile the cost of peace at any price, for elite and peasant alike, can no longer be afforded.
He's a good writer. Very clean and his narrative is great. I am not nearly as optimistic about Japan though. They have pretty much given up on containing a nuclear problem and are rushing to avoid similar situations for many of the reactors on a tiny island full of culture.
Agreed.
Japan's inaction on the nuclear crisis says a lot about them. They are incapable of action even when their lives and their future DNA depends on a swift response. This is the mindset of a loser.
Say what you will about the US's many many flaws, but a fukushima on US soil would have been bombed with mountains of concrete. The solution may not have been perfect, but we woudn't be wringing our hands years later crying about how nothing can be done.
“Shikata ga nai” = The snake that eats it's own tail.
Konnichiwa bitchez!
I prefer the mistranslation "Let's get to work".
shikata ga nai - My favorite shellcode....woops, wrong forum ;-)
On the 4th: Red, Green, Blue Mars.
OT: for those interested, the jack booted thugs that cuffed the man in hawthorne, CA & shot his rotweiller have been taken off the street.
3.7 mm hits on youtube
http://www.salon.com/2013/07/04/3_officers_go_off_street_duty_after_shoo...
yeah, big fucking deal, take a few weeks of paid vacation around the 4th of July. What a big punishment. Fucking assholes need to be discharged and rendered unemployable. Let's see how that sits with those assholes.
@ chubbar
. . .that would be bad for morale. . . and they never know when they might need to call upon such unsavouries in a time of real crisis!
The mob rule that just took place in Egypt might have fear amongst the controlling parties. I found it interesting that Michelle Obama claimed to be living in a White House prison. Perhaps this is her calling card to ask for forgiveness & orders were given from above. Still sorting out my thoughts. This all pertains to those names we will see in the future. No need to beat a dead horse.
I think she means compared to the beach.
$150B per 100 bp... game fuckin over. We need to get some honest chaps in office to start the write down/default process. If these scum currently in office do it, they will undoubtedly throw grandma and grandpa, our vets, and average citizens under the bus in favor for foreign central banks and well connected institutional investors. Bumpy road to (hopefully) paradise ahead.
I really wonder whether Japan´s public debt to GDP ratio really is that bad compared to some countries in Europe. In Japan, people save for their retirement by purchasing government bonds rather than earn the right to future pension benefits by paying taxes. The only problem with this system, as far as I can see, is that it is harder to loot Japanese style pension savings than pension funds controlled by the government. In the 1990s, the Swedish government took about SEK 260 billion from the public pension funds in order to reduce the public debt (the equivalent of SEK 260 billion in the late 1990s for a population of about the same size as the US population is today about $1400 billion). The only easy way to reduce the public debt in Japan is to create inflation that reduces the value of the government bonds people have bought indirectly or directly.
It seems possible to reduce the real Japanese public debt by creating inflation. The question is how dangerous it is to do that. Since most of the Japanese debt is held domestically, exchange rates won´t cause a significant problem. So it should be less dangerous for Japan than for many other countries to print money.
Furthermore taxes, except corporate taxes, are low in Japan. The tax revenue to GDP ratio seems to be considerably lower in Japan compared to France.
Total tax to GDP ratio:
France 44.2% (2011)
Japan 27.6 % (2010)
USA 25.1 % (2011)
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/download/191500021e1t004.pdf?expires=1372963571&id=id&accname=freeContent&checksum=C87EDC8268C044B6C1E0BF19F70FABB7
So it should be possible to increase tax revenues substantially in Japan. It is much harder to increase taxes in a country like France which already has high taxes compared to other OECD members. So I really wonder whether the 230 % debt to GDP ratio in Japan is worse than the near 100 % debt to GDP ratio in France. Of course 230 % is bad. If you reduce the public debt by 5 % every year it takes 46 years to get a debt to GDP ratio which is lower than 100 %. But the question is how bad compared to France.
Furthermore, some people seem to claim that the real debt to GDP ratio in France is higher than the admitted figure, see:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/true-french-debt-gdp-146
Of course, raised taxes would reduce aggregate demand in Japan. There would be more unemployment. But it should be possible to reduce the impact of a tax hike by shifting demand from imported goods to domestic goods and services. That can be accomplished by raising taxes on goods which are generally imported and offer tax incentives for domestic substitutes. One example is oil imports. Construction of wind farms can begin with very short notice. Building huge wind farms can reduce the unemployment and within a year you can have at least some domestically produced energy which reduces the need for imported oil. Within in 5 years you can create a significant contribution of electricity to the electric grid. I agree that it is a problem that you can´t store the electricity which wind farms produce. So only a limited amount of the electricity produced in a country or region can be wind power. But given the current circumstances in Japan I think that it should be unwise not to exploit the limited potential of wind power in Japan fully. There may also be other ideas on how Japan can shift demand from imported goods to domestically produced goods in order to offset the rising unemployment figures that will follow from tax hikes and reduced aggregate demand. But this was the only easy solution I could think of for the moment.
You can store electricity from wind farms/solar relatively cheaply. Drop a big concrete cylinder into the ocean, then use the electricity to pump the water out. When you want the energy back , you let the water back in, through a turbine.
e.g. http://cleantechnica.com/2013/05/21/energy-storage-on-the-bottom-of-the-...
This is just hydroelectric pumped storage. Efficiency is high compared to other mechanisms, ~80% overall.
Now please calculate how many cubic miles of water pumping capacity you need, to store let's say one day worth of electricity for the US.
It seems as if there are means by which the problem of fluctuating winds can be solved. The question is how cost-efficient those solutions are. Another important question is how expensive solutions intended to level the supply of electricity can be if you want the benefits of reduced imports and increased domestic demand to outweigh the costs of these energy storing devices.
A few years ago the Swedish public service television broadcast a documentary on a small island, which was a part of the Canaries, which had combined wind power and artificial water power. I suspect that it was El Hierro where they now have completed a wind farm combined with artificial water power that can level the supply of electricity.
I found an article on the wind farm on El Hierro in the Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/19/canary-island-renewable-energy-lehir
But apparently the El Hierro plant is heavily subsidized according to El Pais:
http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/01/17/inenglish/1358432798_962087.html
Like I said above, it would be interesting to know how the large subsidies can be if you want the benefits of reduced imports and increased domestic demand to outweigh the cost of the subsidies. If the alternative is increased unemployment, and the costs that follows from increased unemployment, I suspect that it is “profitable” to subsidize wind farms and energy storing facilities to a quite substantial extent. Of course it would have been better for Japan to increase the market shares for Japanese consumer electronics manufacturers and shipyards at the expense South Korean competitors. But if that can´t be accomplished the best remaining option is perhaps tax breaks for, or subsidies to, domestic energy production.
Once the Japanese government has become insolvent....
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/04/25/japan-is-insolvent-but-...
... the country has the potential to become a virtual Phoenix:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/06/19/the-phoenix-japan-inc-2-0/
In the meantime however, it is a great place for stock picking:
http://nipponmarketblog.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/why-japanese-equities-a...
that huge drop in $LINE and $LNCO someone was trading for it back in January poss booked $16 million profits http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2013/lnco-line-enormous-and-unusual-option-bet-highlighted-months-ago-hits-paydirt/
glad I dumped it months ago...
the good thig is were not effected by it , are we ?
sarc
DETROIT -- Chrysler Group said on Wednesday it will recall 840,000 vehicles in the United States and other countries, mostly for active-restraint head rests that are possibly flawed.
Five separate recalls include nearly 500,000 cars and SUVs for the active-restraint head rest issue, and another 282,000 minivans for possible malfunctioning air bags, Chrysler said.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/chrysler-recalls-840-000-vehicles-mostly...
The MSM headlines "Robust Austo Sales" report somehow forgot to mention this tidbit.
howsw this, Bobby fng Lutz head of GM commented on Kudlow that GM is up 13.9%! so I double checked and got the GM sales of 9.7mill units global sales in 2006 vs 9.37mill in 2012! Having trouble coming up with the 13.9%. But Im no Bob Lutz
Hey, surprise, surprise. Anglo saxon white guy based in Texas says gooks are fucked. Thanks for that. Yawn....
way to rise to the occasion
Anglo Saxon white guy already said anglo saxon world lost. The last thing we look at is skin. If you are still stuck there then man Im sorry for ya.
+1000
Kyle Bass is reincarnation of Mother Theresa, he runs money for the poorest of the poor? Now you know how brainwashed and ignorant most are on this forum. They can't even phantom that government is an extension of the Corporation-it's a wholly owned subsidiary, except you foot the bill.
So Kyle says we're mostly safe for now, until the China slowdown gets realized next year.
On the "China slowdown means emerging markets slowdown" meme:
Lower Chinese output puts brakes on emerging market expansion in June: HSBChttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/04/us-markets-hsbc-pmi-idUSBRE963...
Kyle Bass writes that he has empathy for the Japanese and that he met thoughtful wonderful people? He only sees the facade they present him. (see: http://www.bachome.org/)
Let them suffer the consequences of their own decisions. The countries that know Japan best do not trust Japan or the Japanese - for good reason.
Their cry "we are different, we are Japanese" led them to the fate Kyle Bass continues to predict - and perhaps they are different, perhaps they are the Atlantis of the Orient. Let them sink.
Don't mess up my retirement, keep printing. That is the hidden unspoken truth and few will admit it. People at or nearing retirement have been trapped.
So why exactly should we listen Kyle Bass?
Apparently he made a lot of money before anyone heard of him. Since then he has been slowly giving it back. (the pace has been picking up tho)
We at least his clients are. Just ask U of Texas
They are all in denial, the japanese, paid off politicos, corporates. The banks come out smelling of roses with building blocks of shares in the survivors and with any gambling debts met by the taxpayer. Win/Win
I would hunker right down. ECB/BoE and of course the crazies at the Fed are trying the ad infinitum juice up. HFTs are buying it, gold isn't (China) USDs bid (China/South America) but oil is...yes, central banks are helping the safe haven flows go into oil price on the geopolitical tensions. Rememberer oil spikes effect net import countries brutally like China and Japan.
And with all that juicy nat gas reserves in the South China sea. War drums again:
"The tussle over China's energy exploration is emerging as the latest flash point between the two countries, whose relations have deteriorated sharply in recent months.
Yoshihide Suga, Mr. Abe's chief spokesman, said Tokyo has conveyed to Beijing that it had "grave concerns" about the construction of the new rig, which is taking place in an area claimed by both nations as their own exclusive economic zone.
"Our government has confirmed that China is using a large floating crane to conduct activities that appear to be the construction of a new offshore platform," Mr. Suga said at a regular news conference. "It is unacceptable if this means China is engaged in unilateral development" of natural resources in the area."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732485370457858336314010872...
This article brings back a strong memory in my American heritage that is not of blood but of: attitude, practice and training. Bushido!
I believe, fear has overwhelmed the Japaneese essence of the Bushido principle of "Mastery".
Mastery in Bushido is not about domination but of: skill, bravery aquired through practice, and training under good masters.
They should take on new masters now, themselves.
Although they were hit by a Tsunami and Fukishima went down in a bad way, it should be a lesson learned, not a call to abandon all nuclear energy.
What say we ramp it up a bit? Drop off our monthly Oil/Gas bill? Pick up our game a few notches?
Japan was the only country on the planet to have Nukes dropped on them by way of hubris rather than need in my opinion.
While Iran is struggling to develop nuclear power so it can convert electrical power production from Oil to Nuclear to improve it's revenue stream, meanwhile back at the ranch getting it's ass kicked through the process.
Japan would likely be in the same spot if they really tried to be energy independent, leverage their Nuke plants, drop off the oil/gas, make the best rockets on the planet with Toyata like reliabilty in delivery.
A couple days ago I rember reading an article here ending with something like "Be afraid, be very afraid"
Better be patient, wait a couple eons before that happens...
Bushido!
TY Japan.
Careful With That Ax Eugene
(especially around smoldering volcanoes)
Bushido, with its extolling of self-restraint and self-sacrifice as not only virtuous but beautiful was a dangerous illusion that served the Japanese people badly, and with tragic consequences. Along with many other aspects of Japanese culture, it no longer has a place in the present, except as a cautionary tale of how easily fascist regimes appropriate and aestheticise once admirable aspects of culture and turn them into powerful ideological tools for sweetening the bitter pill of servitude under totalitarianism.
Bushido has become an empty shell, in the same sense that that Shintoism has. There's no going back.
I can understand its appeal to desperate "oyaji" nostalgics in denial and starry-eyed westerners fresh off the boat and in search of "the exotic" in Japan, but the majority of Japanese people should know better and avoid its pitfalls - esp. now, when Abe is once again summoning the ghosts and pleading for the return to a "beautiful" Japan.
"Nihon wo, toori modosu": the slogan of Abe's propaganda, and which can be seen everywhere in Japan now.
This should send a chill down everyone's spine, but apparently it doesn't, except for a few lone and fearful voices in Japan (because you never know what will happen to the outspoken malcontents once Abe gets his way; well, they used to be ruthlessly murdered before WWII).
I believe, fear has overwhelmed the Japaneese essence of the Bushido principle of "Mastery".
Goodness gracious, the whole Japanese society has been - at least since the Edo period, when you could be beheaded for daring to look at someone of high rank - based on fear: the fear of displeasing, the fear of causing inconvenience, the fear of offending, the fear of disagreeing, the fear of standing out, the fear of becoming yourself. It's toadyism on a massive scale, and maybe that's why KB was so impressed by how "inviting, respectful and thoughtful" the Japanese seem. (But just live there for a couple of years and you'll see how the polite façade crumbles at the least behaviour perceived as a slight.)
Some call this "soft fascism", because there's no need for secret police or party militia here. It's an insidious form of fascism that has been completely internalised by the population: each member, each group (and Japanese feel at home mainly in groups) diligently and constantly takes care of keeping the pecking order and purging any undesirable or unruly elements.
That's why Abe won't face any resistance in the implementation of his sinister plans. It'll be a walk in the park.
The Japanese are very concerned with status, particularly preserving their own.
"Nihon o, torimodosu" -- "Japan, We'll Take It Back!"
"Take Japan back?" wags asked, arching an eyebrow. "From where? To where?"
It is the fight to return the country called Japan to the hands of the citizens of Japan from out of the grip of postwar history.
How much does Shinzo Abe despise post-1945 Japan, that is to say Japan as it is? So much that he seems to not even admit that the country called "Japan" is the actual Japan. He has to qualify, using the locution Nippon to iu kuni -- "the country called Japan" -- because calling Japan "Japan" would be a...travesty?
As for freeing "the country called Japan" from the clutches of postwar history...[i.e. back to the pride and glory pre-World War II defeat]
A little passage to quote to anyone who tries to peddle the line that Abe Shinzo has mellowed or learned to keep his revisionism private.
Read on "Shisaku: Abe Shinzo Thought, Without Apologies"
http://shisaku.blogspot.com/2013/02/abe-shinzo-thought-without-apologies...
The system is holding up day in and day out.
It's coming down anyday now, not from the free market, but deliberately on purpose.
Anyday now, anyday.
how many years now have i been hearing that one?
about two weeks
My taper call was in March.
There are no more suckers left so elite inflighting is going strong.
Lehman, Bear Stearns, MF Global..........ain't gonna finish anytime soon
Agree, we are in for the hurt
"Optimism is cowardice" oswald spengler
There are no more suckers left.... hence the QE.
In 1776 we gained exactly what we’re losing today!
Ex Goldman's Carny (A Canadian head of a UK central bank is a joke beyond jokes, FMD) and Draghi got their on cue 90min market guidance timed for the Euro session (juiced indexes). Hence futures bid close to 200 points (Dow), even with USD/yields creeping up.
"Kyle Bass goes to Japan and finds all as expected..."
No confirmation bias then?
It seems China's new leadership under Xi Jinping are overhauling their economy policies, refocusing their development direction incl. their banking and financial sectors and putting the reins on the naughty minds internally. We'll see the outcome soon, within next 6 to 12 months. Peruse following interesting read by Francesco Sisci.
Xi cuts CEO cloth for bruising battle
EIJING - China's top government body, the Politburo of the Communist Party, late last month held an almost unprecedented three-day meeting at which Party General Secretary Xi Jinping did not attack a foreign enemy or internal dissidents, but rather the party members themselves.
Xi argued against the formalism prevailing in the party. He said that it wasn't enough for senior officials to "strictly abide by party discipline and act in strict accordance with policies and procedures," but that they should also "strictly manage their relatives and their staff and refrain from abuse of power". Xi underscored "The sole pursuit" of the party leaders should be "to seek benefits for the Chinese people as a whole", which is "the Party's cause and interests".
As Russell Moses astutely noted on the June 22-25 meeting, "It's extremely rare for Politburo proceedings to be spoken of in such detail and openness. And it's unprecedented in modern times for the Party boss to start taking swings at his colleagues at the top by so directly reminding them of their responsibilities - a move that suggests he might be planning something even stronger soon."
Xi held the meeting shortly after another extremely rare event. On June 7 and 8, he met US President Barack Obama at Sunnylands in California for an eight-hour, one-on-one talk. Historically, only Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai have held such freewheeling talks with a US president - Richard Nixon back in 1972, when they spoke for a total of 17 hours. Even Deng Xiaoping did not have long, free-flowing discussions the American presidents he met. That is to say that on average Mao and Zhou each spoke with Nixon for about the same amount of time that Xi spent with Obama.
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