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A Historic Inversion: Gold GOFO Rates Turn Negative For The First Time Since Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today, something happened that has not happened since the Lehman collapse: the 1 Month Gold Forward Offered (GOFO) rate turned negative, from 0.015% to -0.065%, for the first time in nearly 5 years, or technically since just after the Lehman bankruptcy precipitated AIG bailout in November 2011. And if one looks at the 3 Month GOFO, which also turned shockingly negative overnight from 0.05% to -0.03%, one has to go back all the way to the 1999 Washington Agreement on gold, to find the last time that particular GOFO rate was negative.

Before we get into the implications of this rather historic inversion, let's review the basics:

What is GOFO (Gold Forward Offered Rates)?

GOFO stands for Gold Forward Offered Rate. These are rates at which contributors are prepared to lend gold on a swap against US dollars. Quotes are made for 1-, 2-, 3-, 6- and 12-month periods.

Who provides the rates?

The contributors are the Market Making Members of the LBMA: The Bank of Nova Scotia–ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA London Branch, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, Société Générale and UBS AG.

When are the rates quoted?

The means are set at 11 am London time. These are the rates shown on the LBMA website.  To show derived gold lease rates, the GOFO means are subtracted from the corresponding values of the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates) US dollar means.  These rates are also available on the LBMA website.

How are the GOFO means established?

At 10.30 am London time, the Reuters page is cleared of all rates. Contributors then enter their rates for all time periods. A minimum of six contributors must enter rates in order for the means to be calculated. At 11.00 am, the mean is established for each maturity by discarding the highest and lowest quotations in each period and averaging the remaining rates.

What are some uses for GOFO means in the market?

They provide a basis for some finance and loan agreements as well as for the settlement of gold Interest Rate Swaps.

* * *

Unpleasant similarities with Libor and most other fixed (literally and metaphorically) rates aside, what is known is that under normal market conditions, GOFO is always positive, or in other words gold serves as a money-equivalent collateral for a pseudo-secured loan against paper fiat (USD in this case) hence the low interest rate.

Sometimes, however, normality inverts and the rate goes negative and as such serves as a useful indicator of gold market dislocations. Thus, while disagreements exists, one can safely say that what GOFO is, is simply a blended indicator of liquidity, counterparty or collateral (physical availability) stress in the gold market. Since it is next to impossible to isolate just which component is causing the indicated disturbance, it is prudent to be on watch for all three.

The best known example of a complete collapse in the GOFO rate, is the September 1999 Washington Agreement on Gold, which in brief, was an imposed "cap" on gold sales (mostly European in the afteramth of Gordon Brown's idiotic sale of UK's gold) to the tune of 400 tons per year. The tangent of the Washington Agreement is quite interesting in its own right. Recall the words of Milling-Stanley from the 12th Nikkei Gold Conference:

"Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement...At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price—and thus on the value of their gold reserves—of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.

 

"Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals—and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions."

Of course, this happened in a time long ago, when the primacy of Fractional reserve banking was sacrosanct, when the first Greenspan credit bubble (dot com) was yet to appear, and when barbarous relics were indeed a thing of the past, only to be proven oh so contemporary following not one, not two, but three subsequent cheap-credit bubbles which have vastly undermined the religious faith in fiath and central banking, sending the price of gold to all time highs as recently as 2011.

Another subsequent negative GOFO episode occurred in early 2001, which coincided with what has been rumored to be a speculative attack and reversal of the futures market. However, while pushing 1 month rates negative, 3 month rates remained well positive.

Indeed, the only other time when both 1M and 3M GOFOs were both negative or almost so (3M touched on 0.05%) was in the aftermath of the AIG bailout following the Lehman collapse in November 2008.

Fast forward to today, when both 1M and 3M GOFOs just went negative.

And while both Antal Fekete and Sandeep Jaitly, traditionally two of the most vocal pundits in the arena of gold backwardation and temporal and collateral gold market arbritrage, are likely come up with their own interpretations of what may be causing this historic inversion, the reality is that one can't know for sure until after the fact. It may be one of many things:

  • An ETF-induced repricing of paper and physical gold
  • Ongoing deliverable concerns and/or shortages involving one (JPM) or more Comex gold members.
  • Liquidations in the paper gold market
  • A shortage of physical gold for a non-bullion bank market participant
  • A major fund unwinding a futures pair trade involving at least one gold leasing leg
  • An ongoing bullion bank failure with or without an associated allocated gold bank "run"
  • All of the above

The answer for now is unknown. What is known is that something very abnormal, and even historic, is afoot at the nexus of the gold fractional reserve lending market. 

h/t S Roche

 

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Tue, 07/09/2013 - 01:21 | 3733288 sherryw
sherryw's picture

Y'know, I read that link, I went to his gold conference in Sydney in 2009 and I have read dozens of Professor Fekete's essays from his archive because something tells me he's right, but I wish he'd speak in plain English with lots of examples.

I'm not an economist but I believe there is no concept that can't be explained in plain English and if he is to get traction more widely quicker (!) it would be better if his assistants could translate for us non economists. Where's his PR person?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 03:03 | 3733377 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

Sherryw

When did you ever hear of an economist speak in the common tongue of the masses? They speak the way they do, only to impress themsemselves or other academics. Their code is designed to advance them, not their ideas.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 01:27 | 3733294 joego1
joego1's picture

Thanks for the info and the link. I like the idea of "real bills" it seems to make the gold standard  more usable in the modern world.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 21:58 | 3732821 N57Mike
N57Mike's picture

"Shikata ga nai". .... It cannot be helped...love that phrase.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:44 | 3733165 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

It's growing on me as well.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 00:39 | 3733242 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Agreed also.  "Wabi Sabi" also applies.   

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 21:59 | 3732825 Buzzworthy
Buzzworthy's picture

The gold price is about to tank.  Negative GOFO means that the bullion banks cannot provide the gold to meet their promised paper obligations and that central banks are no longer backstopping them.  Counter to the bullshit you hear goldbugs like Turd, Sinclair, and the KWN crew selling you, this does not mean that the price of gold is about to skyrocket.  It means the price is about to collapse as gold goes into hiding. Stock the cupboard and hold onto your bullion.  Freegold is nearly upon us.  Oh and get the hell out of your mining shares.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:01 | 3732834 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am so fucked with my mining shares it's pointless.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:10 | 3732869 tao400
tao400's picture

Ha, ha, i typed the same thing before reading your post.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:41 | 3732974 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Bullish percentage is STILL at 0.  I've NEVER seen a more hated class of shares, it's gone beyond all reason now, beyond 'beyond', even.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:48 | 3733157 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

All-in with what is left of my IRA in Gold Miner shares.

Decicded in '09 that if nothing was worth anything Gold and the ability to mine it would be.

It will be there until it triples in value and I'm 59-1/2 or older.  Long term anti-FED anti-Ponzi decision.

Yes, physical Gold and Silver too, but lost in my tragic boating accident on Lake Michigan. 

Buying diving equipment on ebay, though I seem to have misplaced the GPS coordinates.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:48 | 3733169 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Quebec, among others (and Quebec has always been seen as "mining friendly") look like they are about to raise taxes on the miners.  THAT is one risk of many with the miners, too many leaches and too much capital for them to easily walk away from.  There are strikes all over the place in South Africa.

Gold itself, well, it's easy to take with us wherever we go.  Especially boating, better to have it safe with me than sitting at home or in the safe in some dark place...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:59 | 3733186 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Roger that, thanks.

I know it is highly volatile and risky.

I'm still ahead since I bought at the low.

I have confidence that when the fiat schemes crumble, there will be real value in both.

There is a LOT of gold in North America, and when the price goes back up and employment keeps going down as paper burns there will be value in there.  If there isn't I really don't care; it was the only place I could bear to park that IRA money.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:44 | 3732986 Mrs. Cog
Mrs. Cog's picture

@Fonz - I don't look at mine as "mining shares" anymore... I like to think of them as gentle reminders lol.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:49 | 3733004 knukles
knukles's picture

Serious professional unsolicited advice.
Put them away in your mental safety deposit box for 5 years and don't look, think, deal with them.

You'll thank me one day

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:20 | 3733110 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

Me too. I've basically decided to ride it out, because if the price of metals goes up, and there's fuel / labor to mine, then the miners will return... otherwise, might as well see if there is any point in the future when they'll be worth something.

I'm down about 65% on those shares. If they go up to 33% loss, I might just get out and convert it to physical metal. But I'm mostly all in on metals already and that's down a good 25% at the moment. I'm not worried about that though.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 01:19 | 3733283 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I got out at 20. Broke even. That's all I do. Break even. I'll take it.
GLTA mofos d' gofo.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:02 | 3733460 Singelguy
Singelguy's picture

Patience, grasshopper!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:32 | 3734956 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

earlier on, 2010, I scatterplotted various miners vs silver spot and made a call on what the better leverage is. It went will till I picked up Great Panther at 4.70/share I think, those miners went down while silver kept going up. Should have held my agq (2x not the miner) longer.

Now with threat of being shuttered / maintenance mode due to the low spot price, there's no point in owning miners unless you're rich enough to own a decent amount in ALL of them and still be able to absorb losses to hold on for gains.

Those gains might take 20 years to happen, including all strikes, nationalizations, bad management, etc., that plagues the industry.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:09 | 3732867 tao400
tao400's picture

I don't understand your logic. I too am sick of hearing turk, sinclair and KWN saying the price is about to skyrocket. However, if the banks can't provide physical gold, there is a scarcity of gold. If there is a scarcity of phyiscal gold, wouldn't the paper gold disappear becuase it is worthless since it can't produce the physical in any way; instead just being some vague promise of deliverence at some point in the distant future, which would mean the physical would be more valuable. Wouldn't this also be the case if that above scenario caused severe deflation. This is why maybe gold can go up in a deflationary scenario.

It's too late for getting rid of the mining shares. I lost too much money. The risk reward is to keep it since the loss of the rest is now almost meaningless in comparision to a possible meteoric rise.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:42 | 3732976 Unpopular Truth
Unpopular Truth's picture

Tao- Ditto. If the gold goes into hiding, there are two ways for demand to get it out of hiding. One is willingly, by raising the price. Let's hope it is not the other: confiscation.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:02 | 3733047 seek
seek's picture

Paper gold becomes worthless -- price falls -- and physical gold becomes unavailable (no one willing to sell or mine) so there's no market to set price. So yes, paper eventually disappears.

It's the sign of a very major economic transition. Gold (physical) is for after the transition or barter during with someone who has enough goods they're willing to share.

It's not inconceivable at the lower prices there's some attempt to confiscate, but there's so little private gold holdings I can only see that as a pathetic attempt right before the implosion, or being done by spooks/police to line their own pockets before they're unemployed.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:27 | 3733130 tao400
tao400's picture

if no one is willing to sell, prices go to the moon. it's as simple as that. it's like a picasso painting. no one sells, when they do they are for hundreds of millions. it's only when people are willing to sell and there is excess that the price goes down.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:40 | 3733160 Tinky
Tinky's picture

There are physical markets already being put into place. Sinclair is correct that they will replace the fraudulent paper market.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:53 | 3733178 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

+ 1

Most of us know something about FOFOA and his predictions re an end game with physical going way up and paper gold going to zero (disappearing).  He says that the biggest factor in the big "reset" of gold's future price will be when Sellers decline to sell even if the public wants to start buying, even big time...

***

Confiscation?  Here's what I have seen at the "survival" blogs (re guns):

CATIYMF's!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:10 | 3733346 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

If "paper gold disappears," doesn't that require that there have been criminal misprepresentations...

 

It seems the DOJ needs to bring out the guillotine before the victims do.

One way or another, heads are inevitably going to fall...into buckets that once were reserved for gold.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:26 | 3732920 russwinter
russwinter's picture

Completely incorrect, this negative rate presages a powerful rebound in gold’s price, much like in September 1999, March 2001 and November 2008.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:33 | 3732940 Hulk
Hulk's picture

For the moment, your are correct Sir !!! Straight up, fifteen bucks...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:25 | 3732921 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I'm in general agreement with the Freegold argument, but I don't think the bullion banks would have worked so hard to get net long on the paper market if they weren't preparing to take it for another run.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:33 | 3733144 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

The whole Free Gold thing makes me feel like I should be raising my lighter at a Lynyrd Skynyrd concert. 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:54 | 3733179 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That's an apt way to put it.  H/T and + 1 for you, Sir!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 08:29 | 3733584 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

And this gold you cannot change.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:51 | 3733162 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Agreed, and Sinclair is also likely to prove correct in his assessment that the very same 'players' who have manipulated the (paper) price down, are now poised to profit yet again from a run-up in price.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:45 | 3733372 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I'll give you a little hint; "players" who manipulate markets down, ALWAYS, ALWAYS, do it so they can buy the bottom; because THEY KNOW the price is going up. Okay? Get it, now? they do not do it because the Government told them to; the government did not tell them to; they do it to make profits. They are in the process of taking their positions for the price run-up; exactly when they will be finished; is impossible to say; what we can say now is that the downward momentum is finished. In other words, BTFD. This fucking dip; this is still a BIG dip. Never mind the daily whoopies.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:03 | 3732841 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

If it means I will need less fiat to buy an ounce of phyzz next month or three months from now, then I will GO FOr it...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:04 | 3732848 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture

 

 

What just happened?

Gold is climbing fast tonight.

Up +12.20

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:10 | 3732868 CashCowEquity
CashCowEquity's picture

Gold $1255 

+18.00

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:19 | 3732894 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

weird, huh? just like a bunch of scamble-to-buy VXX & UVXY in the final hour 19:00-20:00; granted all small-fry, but I've not seen anything like that in can't say when. Just a little insurance I guess; I'm sure it means nothing.... another rocket day up anybody?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:27 | 3732930 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Give it some time, usually these types of 'gains' get given back.  In any event, even IF tomorrow's an up-day, the first thing the NY traders do when they arrive in the morning is sell as much as necessary to reset the price back to today's close, so they can get the full price appreciation.  Can't have the Asians driving the price now, can we?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:36 | 3732945 Hulk
Hulk's picture

What just happened ? I sold everything ! Should have warned you guys. It should go straight to $10,000 now...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:28 | 3733132 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Hmm. Silver up 1.7% and gold up 1.3% on top of their gains during NY trading earlier.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:06 | 3732856 Whiner
Whiner's picture

China is surreptitiously hammer paper gold and redeeming the PM for shipments west. The only gold left is in the GLD and other trusts. Germany is tapping its fingers on its desk wondering if it should threaten to reconsider is seven year repat.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:09 | 3732866 tom
tom's picture

Negative GOFO means LMBA banks think they have too much gold and too little cash, but they prefer to lend out the gold rather than sell it. Usually the reason is more obvious so this is curious.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:27 | 3732929 tao400
tao400's picture

Or do they want people to think they have too much gold.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:05 | 3733058 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, and much like silver, the shit is everywhere!

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:13 | 3732878 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

GOFO......WTF? The more I read this site the more I realize just how much I don't know.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:43 | 3732980 erg
erg's picture

Sounds cool though.

GOFO MOFO!

It could be in little Johnny's new third grade reader.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:49 | 3733001 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Naw, their just making shit up now !!!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:22 | 3734931 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

No offense, Dr., but before consulting ZH as the source of all news gold, one should consult GATA right down to the archives back 10 years. They covered this. ZH for me came only after a solid background from GATA.org

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:13 | 3732880 tao400
tao400's picture

up 39 now

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:34 | 3733146 olto
olto's picture

I don't see 39!

And where is the volume????

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:14 | 3732881 NeverForgetSilver
NeverForgetSilver's picture

Does this have anything to do with the opening of Shanghai night trading? I read an article yesterday saying that the first Shanghai trading night was astonishing. The volume is more than 3 times of the day time trading. It is a perfect vehicle for arbitrage since they can buy and sell at the same time and profit from the difference. Shanghai has been trading on huge premium for a while. The traders have to buy near term contract or spot to deliver for the next few months since they need to transport the metal and it is more secure from default.

I am not sure but worth speculating.

 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:35 | 3732900 russwinter
russwinter's picture

My personal guess is that there is a Long Term Capital Management rogue whale who has gotten way off side shorting gold against the now long bullion banksters. The banker's participation report released after the close is one for the ages. 

http://winteractionables.com/?p=4267

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:23 | 3732909 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Paul Craig Roberts has an interesting take globally. According to him if the trade agreements go thru, expect more of the same with continued printing infinitum, dollar hegemony and the continued manipulation of gold. Worth 24 minutes. Could GOFO be the dollar blowup that he speaks of?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyO-xR6ZW20

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:51 | 3733173 Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

I heard Mr. Robert's interview earlier today, and I tend to acknowledge the possibility / probability that foreign powers may end up accepting the US hegemony (hag money) over the alternatives, partly because they don't want to be overlorded by the Russo Chinese  Iranian triad... partly because they have no military to oppose US hegemony... partly because they are living in denial.

But I tend to disagree with Mr. Roberts that the politico economic machinations are simple power plays on a global stage. My POV is plain to see by looking up any of my prior posts, but I argue that the logic of the actions observable so far suggest that the banks are overthrowing the governments (both being owned by the oligarchs, it's not that difficult or inventive really), wealth of the non-affiliated is being destroyed on purpose, debt of everyone (nation and individual) is being multiplied, and the world is being forced into a neo-feudal state.

Mr. Roberts sometimes talks about this, but sometimes talks as if he doesn't know this. Strange. This interview was one of those where he pretends to have only so much knowledge, and doesn't connect the dots far enough, in my opinion.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:44 | 3733371 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

"This interview..."

Yes, this interview was strange, to say the least. It seems almost as if the security-industrial clusterfuck-plex found some dirt on him and scripted a subtle U-turn for his trajectory of the crime family now posing as the U.S. "government." 

 

Frankly, I lost all respect for him as I listened to his hand-waving rationalization for the perpetuation of the theiving class of banksters--which is really what he was talking about, as everyone--especially him--knows that there is no independent entity known as government.

 

I have to think he has been threatened; if not that, then they--the criminal cabal posing as U.S. government--have presented a compelling case to him that the U.S. will collapse if perceptions aren't better managed. 

Signing off from the Paul Craig Roberts propaganda hour.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 05:40 | 3733453 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Who will threaten the threatenors?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:19 | 3734925 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Perhaps he simply has credible information for both arguments and nothing credible to invalidate one for the sake of the other just yet. Sometimes to be mentally wiry one must take such a juxtaposition briefly before evidence finally comes out.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:23 | 3732911 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

That GOFO chart looks very similar to the Fed Funds rate chart from 1998 to present.

 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:24 | 3732917 JJ McApe
JJ McApe's picture

get your GOFO'S you MOFO'S

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:06 | 3733066 erg
erg's picture

Props! I should have read downstream faster.

Great minds and all that crap. :)

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:25 | 3732918 bustdrs
bustdrs's picture

Are they final realising the constant beatdowns are only exacerbating the problem.

This is a physical issue that cannot be solved with paper. Who's going to cop it. bets?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:32 | 3732934 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I don't know what it means but gold is sure rising the last two days.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:35 | 3732947 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

There is a disturbance in the farce.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:36 | 3732953 deflator
deflator's picture

if the gofo rates are a relic of a gold standard, why are they still relevant when gold itself is considered a relic by those profiting from the maintenance of gofo?

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:44 | 3732985 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Don't ask questions like that, or you'll expose the gaping holes in the stories of all those who insist that gold is just 'tradition'.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:01 | 3733039 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

No way. Total relic. Only barbarians accept it as payment. Silly Iranians have been accepting gold as payment for oil! Boy did we fool them. 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:12 | 3733088 erg
erg's picture

I've found a way to spin it to the point of thread and stitch my clothes thusly. I've hidden it in everything I wear. Just not the way they think.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:43 | 3732981 billwilson
billwilson's picture

Nice time for a short squeeze on the gold shorts. With everyone away on holiday and volumes low ... any kind of squeeze could be epic. We saw a small preview on Friday with the miners in the last 30 minutes - to the moon.

Although the miners almost always lead ... this time they might not. Sentiment on the miners is so bad that only a spike in gold will get them to reverse. So with the shorts piling on in the quiet summer season ... maybe we will see some firworks SOON.

 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 22:48 | 3732997 toadold
toadold's picture

Well as the ancient Greek once said, "Man this wine is terrible." .....er no wrong one, "Moderation in all things."  

It might be a good idea to take care of health needs you may have been putting off, dental work, eye exam with new glasses and a spare.  some extra cash in case the ATM's and the Banks close. Some silver and some gold. Some food that doesn't need refrigeration.  How are you fixed for tools and spare vehicle parts?  A can of gas with some Stabil in it might be handy.  Get to know your local law enforcement. Build up your social network.  Stand up straight and get a hair cut. Eat your spinach. Violate trespassers and use a backhoe. 

 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 08:22 | 3733571 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

"Man this wine is terrible." ... and the portions are so small.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 12:15 | 3734201 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Buy a still. Corn keeps longer in liquid form.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:15 | 3733060 ekm
ekm's picture

It's quite simple

there is only one thing that matters right now: CONTINUOUS MARGIN AND COLLATERAL CALLS.

 

It seems to me that there are powerful parties who fear such a call soon and in order to be ready, they are leasing out their gold for less and less and less and less than the market price and get the funds to fulfill the call, rather than fire-sell it.

The hope is that the price of gold would rebound to do the swap back.

 

This is like FIRE-LEASE, rather than fire-sale of gold.

 

 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:07 | 3733344 desirdavenir
desirdavenir's picture

Could it be that  the number of shorts indicates that gold price has been locked in by the sellers ?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 03:20 | 3733386 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

Yes! I think you have nailed it! This is why it is reminicsent of Lehman! The mother of all margin calls is in motion, and the banks need cash, specifically dollars at all costs, (short of selling gold).  So gold is going to fall quite a bit more, and then zzzzzoooooooommmm!!! And the miners lead the rally as all that is old is new again.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:07 | 3733463 resurger
resurger's picture

Not only that, they have to pay money on it, 0.065% for 30/360

i wonder when the entire thing collapses how much the negative interest rate will be?! If the REPO on 10 year is capped at -3%, i dont think there will be a cap on the negative GOGO rates.

 

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:11 | 3733078 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

"Who provides the rates?

The contributors are the Market Making Members of the LBMA: The Bank of Nova Scotia–ScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA London Branch, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase Bank, Société Générale and UBS AG.

When are the rates quoted?

The means are set at 11 am London time. These are the rates shown on the LBMA website.  To show derived gold lease rates, the GOFO means are subtracted from the corresponding values of the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rates) US dollar means.  These rates are also available on the LBMA website."

   The motherfuckin' rate rigging banks. Lmao. They actually call it the "London Fix." No, really.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:13 | 3733091 Hulk
Hulk's picture

They call it the fix cause the market is broken...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:16 | 3733099 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

It's broken because it's fixed by centralized Stasis. It's a vicious spiral really.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 03:27 | 3733388 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

Deutsche Bank AG is going down! The hyper-leveraged pigeons have come home to roost and the Deutsche are scrambling for dollars. BUH BYE Merkel!! Thanks for playing you hag.

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:36 | 3733152 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The US has two choices:

  • Introduce a specific tax rate for PMs
  • Redefine the size of an OZ.

There are no other alternatives

 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:34 | 3733368 Debugas
Debugas's picture

US has already introduced such a tax in India...

Mon, 07/08/2013 - 23:49 | 3733170 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I'm hoping for "all of the above" in Tyler's list.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 00:45 | 3733248 put_peter
put_peter's picture

Metals... bullish! In the meantime in EU the discussion of 'forever bonds' have ignited again. You might wonder who would be issuing these magnificient financial instruments... My bet is (not necessarily in the right order) Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Spain and maybe Italy.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:53 | 3733374 smacker
smacker's picture

"EU ... 'forever bonds'"


Is there a connection between "EU forever bonds"  &  "A Reich For a 1,000 years"? ;-)

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:51 | 3733486 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

good one. may I note that it's the City that constantly asks for EU bonds? Or that's the UK that has the longest bond maturities? Meanwhile the EU as org has a fixed budget for...seven years? Just to keep 'em not wishing for EUR price inflation? I expect the British Exchequer to issue Perpetuals in big quantities for BoE "parking" way before Greece ever has the chance to even contemplate seriously such measures

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 08:04 | 3733555 smacker
smacker's picture

Well, no amount of exposure of UK government's economic and financial (mis)management could shock me.

And I'm aware that many folks on ZH already know that the UK BoE is "up to its neck" in every racket going, including being heavily implicated in LIBOR rigging, not to mention QE which is funding govt overspending and reducing any incentive to seriously reduce it.

... ... ... ... ...

As an aside, I note that my prediction of how Cameron & Co would handle the EU membership issue is playing out. I predicted that he would produce a list of 'powers' that he wants repatriated from Brussels -> Westminster, get some agreed and then go to the country waving his achievements in hand, claim that Britain is once again back to governing itself and then expect to get voter support to stay in the EU.

Events over the last few days confirm this is exactly what he's doing. Imagine that!

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 00:57 | 3733259 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

Two recent points of data from the physical markets. APMEX "accidentally" forgot to include half of my last order. They are sending the balance of the maples and have admitted "human error." Also, all of the "random year" Maples are 2013. Sounds like lots of buyers and NO SELLERS in the physical market.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 01:03 | 3733270 Squids_In
Squids_In's picture

This is similar to an event in early June when the general collateral rate (Gov. bond repo rate) went negative. That time, too many short sellers of bonds confronted a limited availability of bonds. The shorts were obliged to borrow bonds to deliver and this pushed the repo rate negative. I see the same dynamics here - too many shorts trying to borrow gold to deliver against the limited supply of physical which is available for repo. Does this mean that the game is up? Well bonds continued to sell off despite the repo shortage in June. I believe extra repo supply was made available from official (SOMA) channels. Will the same happen in the gold market? 500 tonnes per month (or more) is moving east since March - will the Eastern buyers make their newly purchased gold available for repo? I don't think so. Shortages of collateral are the hallmark of QE policies which have reached their limits. Gold should rally from here as shorts find it increasingly expensive to maintain their positions.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:17 | 3733342 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

IMHO.. The sad reality of this climate in the PM market is that it is so manipulated to be suppressed that price discovery will come when the lights go out.

In my family, purchasing has always been a time honored tradition for hedging or some may call it an investment, which it's not, we look at the paper price as a buying opportunity, never a gague of it's worth. The debasing of fiat currency always leads to it's collapse.

It's a storage vessel for your labor earned fiat to be redemed at a later date, that's it.The way I see this, the global economy is for shit, 41 Euro zone bail outs later just to watch the BRICS follow the same path of Sovereign wealth destruction, the only safe havens always lead back to intrinsic commodities.  

 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 02:26 | 3733364 Manthong
Manthong's picture

GO FO yourself..

my stuff was lost in a boating accident years ago and conseqently can never be a part of your corrupt system again. 

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 04:41 | 3733424 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I like it when 10 sigma things happen every day.  It makes me feel special....

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 05:31 | 3733449 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

In the Soviet UK, Bank pay you interest to take loan--As long as you use gold as collateral and let the bank hold on to it.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:41 | 3733480 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

If you think about it, it's quite capitalist. You get money in exchange for the risk you take

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:04 | 3733461 jubber
jubber's picture

so why are both now falling swiftly?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:25 | 3733471 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Just a hunch that Basel III has banks freaking out right now!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-05/margin-calls-coming-us-too-big-fail-banks

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 06:54 | 3733490 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

Just got worse this morning!

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm?page_id=55&title=gold_forwards&show=2013

Who might be in trouble? The Morgue?

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 07:08 | 3733502 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

If the Morgue, along with other bullion banks, is net long, it would be in their best interest to cause maximum amount of uncertainty (i.e. panic) in the market right now.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 07:00 | 3733493 factsonly
factsonly's picture

worsening now the 6 months GOFO turns negative , helmet on buckle up , you are not far from being forced to give your physical to your beloved governments

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 07:27 | 3733520 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The President does not have the authority to create an executive order to force people to turn in gold specifically.  There is a specific law on the books, approved by Congress, that makes gold ownership legal for US citizens.  Executive orders cannot make or change law.  They can only clarify or enforce law.  60 years ago he could have.  But not now.

And lets be honest.  What they have been confiscating are people's homes, stocks, and paper wealth using the printing press.  The more confiscationists scream about gold, the more the government takes everything else.  last time I checked, I found no specific law that said you were allowed to own stocks--You know--The productive assets all Socialists end up confiscating.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:00 | 3734872 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

They authorized a non-judicial assassination list & drone-strikes.

You better believe they can take your land, food or gold.

Tue, 07/09/2013 - 15:44 | 3734996 NeverForgetSilver
NeverForgetSilver's picture

Or life

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