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The New Normal?
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning platform
The New Normal?
Our government and financial “leaders” tell us that things are back to normal and we are well on our way to economic recovery. They report rising GDP, declining unemployment, and record corporate profits. The legacy media propaganda machines, controlled by corporations dependent upon the government and Wall Street to funnel them advertising dollars in return for reporting falsehoods and mistruths, have been informing the masses that all is well. Just go back to staring at your iGadgets and tweeting your every thought to your followers, because the best and brightest in D.C. and Wall Street have it all figured out. The new normal is here to stay.
I guess my interpretation of normal deviates slightly from our glorious leaders’ definition. During the long-term bond bull market, from 1982 until 2007 the 10 Year Treasury steadily declined from 16% to 5%. This was normal because inflation declined at the same rate. Inflation declined from 13% to 3% over this same time frame according to the BLS. In reality, measuring inflation as it was measured in the 80?s and early 90?s would have yielded an inflation rate closer to 6% in 2007. During the decade prior to 2007, which consisted of supposedly strong economic growth, the 10 Year Treasury ranged between 4% and 7%. Even during the 2001 recession, it never dropped below 3.5%.
In a normal world an investor in a 10 Year Treasury bond would require a yield 2% to 3% above the rate of inflation. If the yield was below the rate of inflation they would be guaranteed to lose money. Only a fool, Federal Reserve chairman, or a CNBC bubble headed bimbo would buy a bond yielding less than the inflation rate. The BLS reported inflation rate has been between 2.1% and 3.2% over the last two years. Over this time frame, the 10 Year Treasury yielded 2% or below until the threat of tapering reared its ugly head this past summer. Would this happen in a normal free market? If things are back to normal, why aren’t supposedly free markets acting normal? The Chinese and Japanese reacted normally. They stopped buying Treasuries with a real negative yield.
The only fool willing to buy negative yielding Treasuries is none other than Ben Bernanke. He thinks they are the investment of a lifetime. He is so sure they are a can’t miss investment, he buys $2.5 billion of them per day, which just so happens to be the government deficit per day. Ben now has $3.8 trillion of bonds on his books, versus $900 billion in 2008. His balance sheet is leveraged 60 to 1, versus the 30 to 1 of Lehman and Bear Stearns prior to their implosions. When even the hint of reducing bond purchases from $85 billion per month to $75 billion per month caused 10 Year rates to jump from 1.5% to 3% in a matter of weeks, you realize how “normal” our economy and financial system is functioning.
If our financial system was functioning normally and free market capitalism was allowed to operate according to true supply and demand, the 10 Year Treasury would be yielding 4% to 5% and 30 year mortgage rates would be 6% to 7%. Think about that for a minute. This scenario was normal from 2002 through 2007. That is what normal looks like. Now open your eyes and observe what your owners are telling you is normal. The slight increase in mortgage rates from 3.5% to 4.5% has brought the Wall Street buy and rent housing recovery scheme to it knees. Imagine if mortgage rates were allowed to rise to their true market rate. Housing would collapse in a heap.
Allowing Treasury rates to adjust to a true market rate, based on true inflation, would double or triple the annual interest expense on the $17 trillion national debt and blow a gigantic hole in Obama’s already disastrous $1 trillion annual deficits. Does this sound like “normal” to a rational thinking human being with the ability to understand simple math? Luckily, there are very few rational thinking Americans left and even fewer with the ability to understand simple math. We have been programmed to believe rather than think. As long as the stock market continue to rise, then everything is normal.
Do you think Ben Bernanke and his cohorts at the Federal Reserve worry about the average person who doesn’t own stocks, has to fill up their gas tank, feed their kids, make the mortgage, auto, and credit card payments, and figure out Obamacare, while working two part time jobs? Quantitative Easing (MONEY PRINTING) has one purpose and one purpose only – to further enrich the owners of the Federal Reserve – Wall Street banks. The .1% own most of the stocks in this country and their greed and avarice can never be satisfied.
This artificial prosperity plan for Wall Street has the added benefit of allowing the captured politicians in Washington D.C. to continue their $1 trillion per year deficit spending with no consequences for their squandering of future generations’ wealth. Bernanke and Yellen will never taper, because they can’t. The Fed balance sheet will continue to grow by at least $1 trillion per year until they crash the financial system again. Except this time, there will be no money printing solution. We are all trapped like rats in this monetary experiment being conducted by evil mad scientists. No one will get out alive. Welcome to the new normal. Now eat your cheese.
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weird, last night I had a feeling that pressure was building for a new CogDis piece... looks like this thread was a good release valve
Unless you're brown and speak the local language fluently, you are going to be a target in any one of those countries. When the SHTF, I wouldn't want to be a gringo in any non-white area of the world. Or vice-versa.
Meet me on beaver island. The Mormons once had a kingdom there. For reals
I like the island Manhattan.
I reckon somewhere close to the Bushycompound in SA. I'm sure they've worked out those pesky details like ag & h2o.
Don't forget to sew the barbaristic metal into the jacket or clothing, prior to escape
So you think theChertoff hasn't got the xray machines EVERYWHERE?
this idea that there is somewhere better to run to is like the mouse-in-a-maze. what is missing is a real understanding of the situation, the players and the options.
the situation is that behind the facade of financial and idealogical struggles is the battle for the very soul of man, all of us, every last one.
the players are in actuality invisible (to us). we are all merely the agents.
For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the powers, against the world rulers of this darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavens.
the only option here is to decide who YOU WILL SERVE. make no mistake, you gotta serve somebody.
"It may be the devil or it may be the Lord but you're gonna have to serve somebody....." Bob Dylan
Watch Detroit.
Govt already screwed the GM and Chrystler people, so now we
get to look at how "govbmt" retirees get treated....
This will foreshadow the future of SS/Medicare
We have two economies. We have the virtual and we have the real. The virtual economy lives in the hard drives of the world’s banks and it is immortal as long as the grid stays up.
We on the other hand live in the real economy of blood and bone, and we are not immortal. In the real economy, world oil production peaked in 2005. We are currently in an undulating plateau of production with the cheap stuff being replaced by the expensive stuff at a rate of about 5.5% a year. Do a little math. See how many times 5.5% will go into the number 70. Then wrap your mind around what that means.
We have come to the marathon in a pair of stilettos. Very little we have built over the last one hundred years can survive in a world without cheap oil. Our economic systems, our political systems even our nation states are all predicated on the paradigm of perpetual growth.
Do your own due diligence.
There is no time left. Look to your families and to yourselves.
http://www.washington.edu/research/.SITEPARTS/.documents/.or/Nature_Comment_01_26_2012.pdf
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_netl.pdf
http://www.permaculturenews.org/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
> See how many times 5.5% will go into the number 70.
12.7
> Then wrap your mind around what that means.
We have that many years left?
There will be plenty of oil for A-10 Warthogs twenty years out.
yep. and A-10s are great for dispersing unruly crowds.
"In the real economy, world oil production peaked in 2005"...
Cloud9.5
Tell that to the Australians in 2013!
It's like the "Lucas Gusher" at Spindletop, yet nobody wants to bring this one up since it's been well founded within the last year now that several thousand Australians have moved out there. Still haven't figured out why this hasn't made it to "ZH" yet, but let's face it we have too many other damaging things on our plate and this particular thread with comments is proof of the order of things that need to get fixed first.
Please don't perpetuate the peak oil myth. This planet is awash in oil and natural gas and it's the invention of the cartel that keeps the price at $105.00 a barrel during "booms" and "busts" who have the money power and influence that kills millions of people to control it in order to keep those margins inordinately high. This is why you never hear about the oil discoveries over the last decade alone around the globe that go unnoticed, like Brazil, Haiti, Cuba, Crete now Australia.
Just sayin
Son, you are pointing to a puff piece designed to net investors in a shale oil formation to support your hypothesis that the world is awash in recoverable oil. The sources I cited are American and German D.O.D analysis of the strategic implications of peak oil. If you read the Hirsh report you would find that mitigation needed to start twenty years prior to peak. The Nature piece points out that there is a clear divergence between claimed reserves and production. Past experience with shale oil reveals that the wells drilled deplete at a horrific rate. Within three years they tend to lose 80 % of their production. You might want to research Shell Oil’s experience with shale. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/25/shell-abandons-oil-shale_n_3991716.html
Shell Oil? American and German D.O.D.???
Thanks for the tip. Just the sources you want to verify "just the facts".
The same Corporation that was once a part of and aptly named "The Seven Sisters" that launched multiple covert wars with it's seed money since 1953 to overthrow democratically elected leaders in Iran, Iraq in the 70's including the funding to start the Iran Iraq war in 1980, followed by the Gulf War in 1990 and an invasion and occupation to finish the job again in 2003 which killed nearly 1.5 million civillians and displaced 4 to 6 million more.
Yeah I completely trust those sources to give me the truth about the Worlds 'true' oil reserves.
While you're at it you might also want to recommend the CIA's web site. I'm sure they are a wealth of accurate information given the relationship that agency has always had in the strategic interests of this industry?
Peak oil is not a myth, theory or any thing else except a,
MATHEMATICAL FUCKING CERTAINTY.
What part of the term "finite resource" are you having difficulty with?
Long term rates will hit new lows very soon. As oBUMMERcare premiums hit the economy and demand for credit.
If you are bankrupt, ACA is free.....run those numbers
Free?
Absolutely!
Caveat: You must shower first.
> Now eat your cheese.
I can't. Somebody moved it.
Who moved my cheese?
Now eat your cheese.
No, I think he meant peas. Eat your peas.
Should be meat. If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.
Maybe he means, "blessed are the cheese-makers", rather than the cheese consumer?
"Bernanke and Yellen will never taper, because they can’t."
That simply is a lie.
"The Fed balance sheet will continue to grow by at least $1 trillion per year until they crash the financial system again."
The financial system is going to crash whether they taper or not. It is a willful deliberate CHOICE not to taper.
A concise summation from the original Zerohedger:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bICwyV5ppLU
"Our government and financial “leaders” tell us that things are back to normal and we are well on our way to economic recovery."
I haven't heard them saying that.
"Ben now has $3.8 trillion of bonds on his books, versus $900 billion in 2008. His balance sheet is leveraged 60 to 1, versus the 30 to 1 of Lehman and Bear Stearns prior to their implosions."
At 50 to 1, a 2% loss bankrupts. The FED is Lehman on steroids.
The Fed plays by special rules. They don't recognize "losses" and they will never be realized even if everyone else has to. They run a global confidence game and as long as there are people willing to be conned, or are so captured by the system that they see it as the only game in town, the con will continue.
We will eventually get to the point where they, and everyone else, will just make shit up as they go.
Wait.....aren't they doing that now in broad daylight?
Yes. Yes, the are.
They have to hold full term and can not mark to market, but the Fed is private so no obligation to book loss to anyone other than the government
Now go home and get your shine box.
.... pass the bacon, please.
To our Destiny!
Whatever else, the planet needs a good flush. Whether we who are the crown of creation do it to ourselves and all along with it, is becoming more and more immaterial. If it's a nuke, I hope I'm at the impact point, if the bastards push me too far I hope I have the balls to take at least one of them with me. If the event is natural, I hope it is quick and thorough. Pain sucks.
I hear an echo.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x3pq8PQpLw
Mr. Panos Educates Peter Schiff on Financial _Crisis_ in Greece.mp4
FTA: Quantitative Easing (MONEY PRINTING) has one purpose and one purpose only – to further enrich the owners of the Federal Reserve – Wall Street banks.
Well, yes and no. It also also enables the federal government to continue social programs from food stamps to medicare - independent of conventional taxes, independent of Chinese borrowing. The printing directly boosts asset prices, and also is an invisible tax on all assets, including trillions held in foreign hands. The net effect is pretty darn close to zero. I've thought for some years that this may indeed be the new normal.
It may even be mathematically stable. I think Bernanke has his own financial model of this, and he just doesn't publish it. Maybe it's a commonplace in academia for all I know, but certainly the MSM has not yet twigged to it at all, nor any other prominent voice on the web, left, right, or middle.
But of course it is not *socially* stable, it is ripe for corruption like fresh bread is just waiting for mold, pigeons, and rats, as well as human consumers. Bernanke can never print it faster than the banksters and politicians can steal it. But for now, it's working, sort of, at least it's working, sort of, quietly.
Without a doubt the ponzi of the Federal Reserve Note is grinding to it's ends, apparently by design, with no criminals or traitors accused or jailed. What remains in question is whether in the near future, a deemed successful life of reward will be defined by effort and ability or nepotism and family connections.
My generation has watched our right to life, liberty and happiness be drained exponentially throughout the century of federal reserve notes. Watched with increasing dissolution at elections rigged literally or with two non-choices for candidates swimming in fiat fueled bribes of one sort or another. And now the worry is for the corpse of our Republic that has not been given away in treaties to owners of the multinationals and how they will command our servitude prospering from our very breath?
With no domestic production of goods will we all be hostage to control of goods flowing from foreign economic zones? With no currency will we all be hostage to control of electronic credits stifling our very movement? Without family farms will we be hostage to GMO facsimiles of food lacking any nutritional value while loaded with genetics of unknown detriment to human health? With a majority dependent on gubermunt subsidies will there be any hope breaking fascist control with the state dribbling into one pocket while siphoning out of the other?
The currency is going to bust, that die is cast. What future is on the other side of that event is still up in the air, but in honesty I don't think it is looking very good presently for the grand kids.
And I didn't even touch Agenda 21 and climate change BS while the world completely ignores a radioactive death of the pacific ocean. WTF?
Succinct resume of many aspects of the situation. Is it too late to set things straight? Maybe...maybe not. On the positive side there a lots of people like you who are aware and could do something......although I can't imagine what that 'something' would be......I guess it may be necessary to let the current train wreck play itself out and come out the other side with a 'whole new plan'......my biggest concern is the irrevocable damage now being done by the Fukushima disaster (which barely gets a mention in the press) and other global pollution issues such as the depletion of aquifers worldwide and increasing air/land pollution along with the degradation of our food supply chain......
The Federal Reserve note is just a medium of exchange which the world has accepted as a store of value. This is a huge blunder and all who have elected this way of storing wealth will soon learn that real wealth is what you have. It is not a promise of delivery in the future.
The problem is that when the future comes everyone will want theirs all at once and most will not get anything.
The dollar does fine as a medium of exchange. When gold backing was removed and it tried to pass itself off as more than just a paper promise, the trouble began.
When fiat dies it is easily replaced. Debts go away and those in possession of gold or other real assets like stock shares or land can restart an economy with some effort.
The losers are ALWAYS the bondholders and pensioners. All paper will go down with the dollar.
This is not a new plot. It has been used many times even in recent history. Quit bitching. You are here at Zero Hedge and are one of the few who understand how this will play out. Buy gold, ditch bonds, play stocks if you think you are lucky about timing issues...and buy more gold bullion.
When the dust settles you will be one of the few with capital. The government may try to mess with you but really, with no ability to pay stooges, after a while the government will look weak.
Be patient, the dollar will die sooner than you think. This time around you will be on the winning team,
You bring up the ability to pay stooges: for how long will the government be effective if soldiers, police and the spy aparatus feels like it's getting shafted.
Worst case scenario for all is if the govt. buys up foodstocks and doles it out to employees directly and for their families. That will cause massive inflation. But without enough currency how will massively indebted government employees (I try to avoid the term: "workers") pay off their above-average debts?
They may last on the books forever, but how effective will they be. I imagine their "work" will slow down, get even more inefficient, and there may be great amounts of malice and sabatoge toward a state even they no longer believe in.
Chart shows the "head" is in on an inverse head and shoulders. One more little dip in yields (at the cost of about $5T in debt) and up we go.
Maybe they'll all commit suicide when they realize the fate that awaits them.
101 mm people receiving entitlements compared to 80 mm people working full time in private sector. So political activism is worthless as the 101mm entitlement folks and the 22mm Govt workers will always vote for larger Govt and more FED monetary programs. This will end when China yuan becomes the world's reserve currency. China is the largest purchaser of Saudi oil and has reduced purchases of Treasuries. So this may happen in a few years.
So owning gold doesn't afford any protection?
The 1000 year span of the western Middle Ages (500 to 1500) were supported by wealth accumulation by cities, states, churches and people.
Gold and Gems were very handy and afforded protection during those times, and many generations.
Its hard to see that far back, but it can be done.
Going forward ways to preserve wealth, portable and without counter-party risk, may again become important for families.
Monetary Triange is the basis for money and economies: Unit of account, Store of wealth, Medium of exhange.
Simple insurance is the best method to ensure survival.
As the saying goes, you can't eat it.
But those Bernankebucks are very nourishing, especially the electronic ones.
How many times since how many years has ZH already called the end of the world?
SnP 18xx into November.
Or at least very very close to.
Then a few months correction.
Then SnP to da moon.
Then "even a blind chicken finds a kernel of corn now and then".
Collapse is in process. That is all you have to understand and all you have to prepare for. Timing is important only if you are impatient or unprepared.
We ARE seeing the "end of the world" already!
It's a process, not a moment in time.
" ...you do not know, you cannot know, what it means to have eyes in a world in which everyone else is blind, I am not a queen, no, I am simply the one who was born to see this horror, you can feel it, I both feel and see it..."
Blindness
Doctor's wife, the only person who retains her sight through blindness epidemic, to her blind companions.
.
http://www.allgreatquotes.com/jose_saramago_blindness_quotes.shtml
'The difficult thing isn’t living with other people, it’s understanding them.' (or both) ;)
"...a longing to curl up inside herself, her eyes, especially her eyes, turned inwards, more, more, more, until they could reach and observe inside her own brain, there where the difference between seeing and not seeing is invisible to the naked eye. Slowly, ever more slowly, dragging her body, she retraced her footsteps to the place where she belonged..."
Blindness
Doctor's wife.
Allen Toussaint On Your Way Down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w2eQOM6NmI
CaddyShack - I Was Born To Love You
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e08TOHlevxU (1:01)
Ray Charles - You don't know me (original)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNlz5P2pbk8
.
Ha !
best too u too.
.
"Perhaps only in a world of the blind will things be what they truly are."
Blindness
The Doctor.
We're all pink on the inside
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0ND14T-k5o (1:46)
i have to share this here.
"Those on
the Path of Knowing, seek
the signs of guidance. Out
of the Universal, Truth calls its
own, lighting its beacon-fire upon
the mountain top, to attract the
way-fairing pilgrim in the valley.
To all who can see that
beacon-light, I, as a fellow
pilgrim, lovingly dedicate
this volume."
.
Fabre d’Olivet
Done into English by
Nayán Louise Redfield
1915
...thanks . !!
http://hermetic.com/dolivet/hermeneutic-interpretation/
.
speaking of "on the inside".
.
Jon Stewart And Matt Taibbi: Banksters, Presstitutes And Why Nobody Should Shed a Tear for JP Morgan Chase
Matt Taibbi continues his brilliant work as one of the last real investigative journalists left at his best. Jon Stewart is on par translating the situation for those who has difficulties with concentration and reading. We will ask our rhetorical question again: after LIBOR fraud, FOREX manipulations, Mortgage scam and Pension looting - Is The Gold Manipulation To Be Admitted Next? http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/jon-stewart-and-matt-taibbi-banksters.html#
So what is your recommendation for meaningful solutions that will work and not destroy the world?
I know most of those in this exalted group think that a large kill off of people in the world, but of course not in my backyard. I've been a good enough political hack that I an my family deserve to survive so don't come to my gated community!
I'll check back in a short while and see if any of you have any reasonable suggestions for overcomming the treason of both the political estblishment and the business establishment in the US and the world.
And not destroy the world?
A: a real live Galt's Gulch with gold, silver, platinum, whatever your heart desires used as money. And guns, lots of guns including big ones, owned by citizens.
The banksters are in charge today for this simple reason: "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild
Know Your Enemy (Part 71 - Israeli Supreme Court)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qGstcJocPs (6:11)
~//~
Aeon Flux (4/10) Movie CLIP - Jailbreak (2005) HD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zInmil5iT4 (2:40)
Aeon Flux (9/10) Movie CLIP - Shootout in the Garden (2005) HD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKKzI-DKhuQ (2:10)
This is what I always here how if we don't do this "the world will end and everything will collapse," this couldn't be further from the truth, in fact the only thing that will collapse is the price of all assets so that normal people could actually work and afford things. So this is where the problem truly lies and why the United States will fail miserably under its own financial construct. But it is not the United States that will fail, it will be the top 10% that will lose the most. When the rest of the 90% figure this out that all the policies are here to protect the top 10% than the quicker we can rid the system of their filth. It is our duty to dismantle the government when its policies no longer fit the majority. Everyone and I mean everyone knows that the system is corrupt, this to me is a sign that the real change is coming. It is very simple for someone to run in 2016 under the simple premise and platform is power by the people for the people. shit if I had $10 million I would do it and I know I could win because the people want someone that will actually change the system, actually not change but dismantle this ridiculous system, my first act would be to dismantle the Federal Reserve and issue all currency from the US Treasury, I woul d then cut out QE immediately and raise fed fund rates to 8%. I would eliminate banking and insurance conglomerates and institute heavy monopolistic penalties. This country is ripe and ready to eliminate both parties who are completely full of shit.
The guy in the pic looks like Lenin.
The rats must represent hard-working white folks.
I think it is a metaphor.
I think the question that needs to be asked in era "3.0 of Free Money" (Clinton years, Bush years and now Obama Years) is what is being built here with what is clearly America's Free Pass? my personal view besides obviously that wealth creation is normally exceedingly rare let alone this long lasting is "what is being achieved" here? quite honestly I can't think of anything "sustained" during the Clinton mania. During the Bush Phantasmagoria obviously a huge housing stock was created that even now still boggles the mind. interestingly most of this housing stock remains out of reach to the bulk of Americans which is rather odd given the need for bills to get paid. this one however is by far the most fascinating. this go around we're talking free transportation, green tech and an American Saudi Arabia. in short there might actually not be a need for a "Union" per se but simply something "in name only" and to be observed via a banking or financial "regime." to my knowledge we still have a Government but when talking cash flows this large it is something I think you kinda have to point to be "recognized."
Should say: eat your cake.
While all the interest focusses on US economic unwind after Congressional tit for tat and NSA spy up your asshole episodes here is a look at the EU's coming crisis; whatever may happen in Pax Americana land; here is a blogger's post on Naked capitalism :
To repeat again: The eurozone has 6 problems, all of which must be resolved together.
1) An insolvent predatory banking system
2) A weak cental bank
3) Absence of a democratic fiscal and debt union
4) Mercantilist trade patterns between euro countries
5) Completely corrupt elites and political classes
6) A ruling kleptocratic class of the rich
Varoufakis is just singing the same tune here but at much greater length. He never mentions criminality, looting, or kleptocracy once. He persists in the myth that Northern taxpayers have been yoked with the costs of bailing out Northern banks. This is untrue. The Southern 99%s have had to bare these costs: lost jobs, declining living standards, the selling of the commons, and dismantled social programs/safety nets. The Northern 99%s have been looted in other ways, most notably the Hartz reforms in Germany.
And lordy, what’s up with his romantic yearning for a “hegemonic Germany”? It was a hegemonic Germany that profitted most from the conversion to the euro (which automatically made German exports cheaper and more competitive, and fueled German euro mercantilism). It was a hegemonic Germany and its kleptocratic rich which made profligate loans to the South and then demanded Southern governments make good on them when bubbles popped and the loans went bad. Varoufakis wants the foxes to take over the security of the chicke coop. Yeah, like that is going to work.
o http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/yanis-varoufakis-the-dirty-war-for-europes-integrity-and-soul.html#MmgImgXeYJI4Mr6K.99Traffic
Low Spark Of High Heeled Boys - Live 72 (Full Song)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8M8R835Ck4
Steve Winwood // Traffic - John Barleycorn (Must Die)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8878chOvfI
Never seen this solo take. Ossm!
i saw it first a few months back,
listened twice and then was convinced!
what is ossm?
Onamatopoeic ebonics for 'awesome'.
Solid +5
This is long but the best thing i have read on what happens when this unravels .... it will quite possibly be the end of civilzation as we know it http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Trade-Off1.pdf