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Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish
"I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."
- Hugh Hendry
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel.
As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat.
Of course, there is a limitation here as we have explained previously, namely the amount of "high-quality collateral" which the Fed and the other central banks can and are rapidly soaking up, in the process destroying bond market liquidity, but that "discovery" will be made by the Fed far too late, despite even the repeated warnings of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.
And since Hendry is constrained by daily, monthly and annual P&L, he simply does not have luxury of waiting for the "fat tail" event, which incidentally will be quite terminal and thus hardly profitable for anyone exposed to fiat-denominated assets.
So the end result is that Hugh Hendry is merely the latest bear to throw in the towel:
"I can no longer say I am bearish. When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out," Hendry said.
"I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years' time."
"I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."
So what does the newly christened "bull" like?
Though he first began turning more positive on the likes of US and Japanese equities last year, Hendry suggested this morning the current environment created more counter-intuitive opportunities. "This applies to European banks, Greek equities, Spanish equities. You have got to be in things that are trending," he said.
The manager's Eclectica Absolute Macro fund had a 64% value at risk equity allocation in September, up from 45% in August, with December 2013 Japanese TOPIX index futures his biggest single holding on a VaR basis.
Addressing attendees this morning, Hendry said his comments would take on a "confessional" tone, and admitted his performance over the past year had been "at best, mediocre". Hendry's CF Eclectica Absolute Macro fund has lost 2.6% in the nine months to 30 September, according to the firm.
In other words the "dash for trash" mentality, which we predicted in September 2012 when we forecast that the most shorted stocks would outperform the market (and they have), has just won another convert. That, and of course, Fed-balance sheet induced momentum chasing, in which the only thing that matters is one's view how many "assets" the Fed will hold at any point in the future (see from April: "Bernanke & Kuroda Capital LLC: Overweight S&P 500, 2013 Target 1950").
Finally, Hendry's "come to Bernanke" moment does not come easily:
The manager acknowledged his changing stance may be viewed by some investors as a 'top of the market' signal, but said he is not concerned by the prospect of a crash.
"I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell'. The S&P 500 is up 30% over the past year: I wish I had thought this last year."
"Crashing is the least of my concerns. I can deal with that, but I cannot risk my reputation because we are in this virtuous loop where the market is trending."
Sadly, his last statement is just the latest confirmation that in the New Centrally-Planned Normal, FOMO or Fear of Missing Out (the trend, the media appearance, the herd, the year end bonus, you name it) is indeed the new POMO as we warned in May.
And like that, everyone is now on the same side of the boat.
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Yeah, when it all crashes it's gonna be a doozy.
It looks like the beatings have improved morale.
"This environment only makes sense through the prison of trends."
"It looks like the beatings have improved morale."
Damn thats fucking good! +1
.
The devil tempts the faith and resolve of many, I'm even more bullish on being a bear
So, a Merry Christmas, but, a Shitty New Year?
I'm On A Boat!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU
Thanks for the chuckle. That pretty much captures it. BTFD? with what? I'm on the boat, mfer.
You can throw Biderman in there even before Rosenberg.
Yeah money-changers got control of the printing press and wrote a software program directly connecting the fiat creating machine to the stock indexes, the Washington D.C. politicians budgets, the funding of DHS, FEMA, TSA, NSA and the military industrial complex.
Yeeeeeehaaaaaa everything is fixed for taking over the world.
Until of course God comes down and smites them again. Altheugh he may have just given up and said fuck it let them destroy themselves and the entire planet. Dudes got better things to do.
It's a fool's game, to bet on which side of the royal bed his liege will wake up.
Bernanke's printing press is more powerful than logic.
We live in an Alice in Wonderland world. What is up is down. What is down is up.
Reward irresponsibility.
Create smoke and mirrors
It is a Phantom Economy.
Gambling is king.
****
Rational thoughtful people are bewildered and lost in an irrational game.
I don't play the game, and if I did, I would have gotten out months ago anyway. My reasoning is simple. This shit's manipulated to hell, and I'm not an insider who is going to know what way to jump when.
What crash? The Fed will print whatever is required to keep the wealth effect intact as that is what is keeping the economy afloat We are in the beginning stages of hyperinflation - stocks always do well here It is only later that they begin to lag behind the inflation rate.
Don't worry Bernanke still has our back! BTFATH
That's MR. YELLEN to you buddy !
You need to be able to look at yourself in the mirror again Tyler.
Hendry isn't reality challenged exactly, he just figures we live in a challenged reality.
Yes but it is sad to see that he has capitulated and that Bananas are now in his diet:
Hedge funds head for big banana skinhttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/382ae750-8fb1-11e1-98b1-00144feab49a.html#axzz2lOWEgroM
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Only the strong survive...
He need not beat himself over it. What has happened is that a place of exchange and value discovery called "the market" vanished in the night to be replaced by a Statist propaganda tool called "the market". It is a lie, with legs. As with any useful lie this one will be spread, repeated, embellished and retold as fact until it has become nothing but a myth and as with all mythology it will retain very thin basis in truth.
The market will then join dragons and unicorn in a land of fable where people will return to when they become furiously drunk, or significantly deranged.
Other than this curious fate, we can start to forget about the market. After we manage that, eventually something else will come along that will serve a similar purpose.
I disagree with that. The stock market is still a market. You can take any individual stock, examine its fundamentals, usually find a reasonable PE and even forward PE, look at cash flow, and then make your purchase decision. In that respect the market is working fine. Where I'm less confident is in the area of credit. We seem to still be at risk of another credit collapse, and in that respect equity holders could be slaughtered.
LNKD P/E 986.98
FB P/E 117.88
GIS P/E 18.78
XOM P/E 12.39
I got me some XOM just before warren bought 40 million shares
There ya go!
Next thing you're gonna tell me is that there is no Santa Claus! harruummphhh
Greek Equities...Spanish Equities...wait...
What's with the $75,000 Dark Web holding on his Port Valuation???
The Bernank put.
Hahaha, it's ok to be bullish, just be bullish on the right thing. For example, I am bullish on treasury yields, Greek Nazis, and policy dysfunction.
Go short when ZH capitulates.
There will never be any money to be made on the short side. When TPTB are ready to pull the rug, and they will, this pig will vaporize in nano-seconds. With no shorts in the markets and only robots churning this pig, there is no underlying bid. The only play is to be long and nimble with money you are willing to lose.
Sounds like a Vegas show, "Long and Nimble", opening act for Cirque du Soleil.
There's a sucker born every minute.
On July 30th, 1998, Mr. Summers then-Deputy Secretary of the Treasury testified before the U.S. Congress that "the parties to [derivative contracts] are largely sophisticated financial institutions that would appear to be eminently capable of protecting themselves from fraud and counterparty insolvencies."
Mr. Summers called Raghuram Rajan a luddite for daring to warn about impending systemic risks back in 2005. In retrospect, Mr. Summers has proved to be an ignorant arrogant, ignorant about history and ignorant of his own arrogance.
Reminds me of when I stopped listening to that millionaire windbag Limbaugh... I realized that his REAL draw is a particular form of addiction: CHRONIC ANGER*. Problem is, damn few people can stay solvent longer than they can stay angry, by staying in a Bear market or listening to its millionaire promoters -- who are the other 1%.
If you're in the 98% club, YOU too may wish to reflect on this. For those few, for whom "deep reflection" is actually possible, that is.
* Not unlike Salubrious vs. Salacious. Although a salubrious amount of salaciousness is therapeutic from time to time. ;-)
So, two chart/graphs this week (on here) say 1.5 -> 2 years. This guys is saying 2.5 -> 3 years.
Looks like there's going to be lots of wealth effect missed out on. Oh well, off "the market" grid IS more of a religion and the religious need to suffer for their faith.
All time highs on stocks, gold down nearly $700 from the high just a couple years ago, the sanest bears capitulating. Gotta give TPTB credit, they do know how to manipulate things.
Of course, reality is far different since we have record numbers on food stamps, a labor participation rate that hasn't improved since the collapse of '08, and a new insurance/tax scam called ACA that's about to implode and bring another chunk of the economy with it.
It's all self-deception, which will be realized when reality can no longer be deferred. I thought we'd have one more '08 level crash before the end game, but I'm no longer so sure -- this bubble is too big now, and the supports too shaky. Post crash QE-whatever will have no effect.
The deception went on for half a century in the USSR. If at first Central Control doesn't work voluntarily, it will become mandatory, forming support collectives. (Free Shit Army?) That seems more the trend here.
Doesn't seem too promising a long term prospect for credit backed currency, let alone third party paper.
I think one big difference is that the US is trying to support a standard of living far higher than the USSR ever saw. It's a completely unsustainable standard of living at that, and they're trying to do so for a growing FSA class. The end result is the print rate is far higher than it was for the USSR, and the actual producers are getting utterly destroyed. There's no way this level of printing can be sustained for 50 years. Indeed, QE appears to be increasing, and China announced today that they're not building any more dollar reserves, meaning that printing and only printing will be what moves forward.
The core problem of this delusion is just that -- the political and power class actually believe this shit.
I am in agreement that the long-term prospects for credit back currency are gloomy. The detatchment from reality is getting so extreme it's downright frightening.
Frightening, certainly. That this all leads to more command and control, not away from it. Of course this standard of living can't be maintained. Not sans real wealth creation, and definitely not with the dilution of the value of the currency.
Seizure of the means of production will become popular when the shortages, brought on by inept policy start to materialize. At that point, what more would we expect from power brokers who believe they know more than all the Worlds market players and more than history itself, than to further assert authority?
It's just this kind of thing that brought on the likes of Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Mao et al. Who will America's "Man (Woman?) on Horseback" be?
And on this trajectory, we could very well be headed into a 50 year "Dark Age."
The resolve of the founding principals of this nation are going to be tested soon.
"The resolve of the founding principals---" you've got to be kidding. we left all that behind some time ago. Which founding principle are you referrring to? A founding principal; refers to a human being who's been dead for two hundred years; surely that's not what you mean.
"The deception went on for half a century in the USSR" --- the deception went on in the Kremlin...
The operating rule in Soviet Russia was, "you pretend to pay me and I'll pretend to work".
seek, to your post above. Your 1st paragraph shows how effective a sociopath can be because results that benefit THEM is all that matters. So your 2nd paragraph won't even register with them because that is just for the little people that don't count in their twisted mind. As to your 3rd paragragh, the answer to that is how the sheep respond to this. If they stay in their pens, conent with the meager toys and food their masters give them when they bleat, then nothing changes. The only thing you are missing is if the sheep get too restless, the shepherd can always use cattle prods and dogs, or if need be... fire up the grill and have lamb chops every now and then. The bottom line is, most people don't have any clue how far TPTB will go to sustain paragraph 1 because the sheep are under the delusion that TPTB ultimately "care for them". Paragraph 2 obliterates that notion.
What I was ultimately alluding to is that when there's literally nothing left to be taken from the producers and the sheep, it collapses. TPTB are deluding themselves if they think otherwise (and I do genuinely think that TPTB believes they attained the nirvana of total control.)
This will come to an end. Most likely in a really ugly way.
Long live James Altucher/
Question is when will Tyler Durden throw in the towel ?
Gud question.....
After Hendry capitulation, we raise our EOY sp500 target to 2100
Hendry turns bullish. Lemmings pile in. Hendry sells his inside positions. Markets drop. Hendry says oopsie.
As likely as anything else. If this market isn't a bubble then I've never seen one.
The fiat money scheme works until the day it stops working. We all see that day coming. We just don't know how to adequately predict it well enough to protect our assets. So, ride the trend but be prepared to bail and don't kick yourself if you bail too early.
The name of the game is first the preservation of wealth, secondly to increasing wealth. This is hard to do especially when there is less clarity and more noise in the data and when the economy is being inexorably moved from Franz Oppenheimer's "economic means" to the "political means". Many factors in an economic economy are be objective. Most facts in a political economy are subjective.
" I must stand on my head. I must stand on my head"
- Scrooge, A christmas carol- (1951 Alastair Sim version)
"No market can crash until the bears capitulate"...or something to that effect.
Or until GS one day advises it's clients to go long and buy it all...
Market "doesn't have to crash". That's what hyperinflation is "for".
In theory, "quality" stocks are a good idea because who-ever loses the least, still wins. In reality, I suspect that TPTB will directly "decide" which stocks are "GS" or "JPM" and which stocks are "Lehman" or "MFG".
It doesn't stop untill all retail is invested aand the professionals pull out.
Just two words can sum up the current situation:fucking frightening,
I just hope the people who end up in charge after the current system blows up recognise the contribution and responsibility of the Fed and the governments of the last twenty years to how we have got to where we are now, and take those responsible to the gallows,nothing else will be acceptable,it has to happen to ensure there is no repetition in the future.
Future leaders and bankers should have to live in fear of the rope for their actions.There is no other way to control them.
You see, this is why I ask, "What will be the trigger?" And I still do not believe that the trigger is completely invisible. On certain dates, certain decisions must be forced. It is not 100% prophecy but it is a step closer to enlightenment.
Will this still be going on when minimum wage is still ~ 7 bucks an hour, average house price is $100 million and average PE is 60000? Why?
Oil prices will hit $300 before that happens, and that will kill it.
$300 oil won't kill it. $150 oil has to be reached before $300, and history shows that the sociopaths will do ANYTHING to address that. QE, TARP, Bailouts, Porkulus, you name it. It's all just printed dollars anyway. S&L crisis, dot com crisis, financial crisis, BTFD and blow the next bubble. TPTB have the perfect system for enriching themselves at the expense of the masses. Why blow that up? Rinse & Repeat to Infinity. It's the sociopath way.
That's what I have been thinkng too. What is the trigger? The only possible thing I see coming is the loss of the US Dollar Reserve Status. Some global chess pieces are lining up for that, but I don't see that as likely in the near future, but probably years, even decades away. Why? Because TPTB have gamed the entire world system to enrich themselves at the expense of the masses. It's what sociopaths do. Why blow all this up when it is working? Is China imploding? Is Russia? Is Europe? No, they are all taking steps to keep the GLOBAL PONZI going. Will the US dollar lose status, hell yes, it already is. But will it collapse... I don't think so. Not with the US having the largest military on earth. As I have said countless times, sociopaths will do anything to protect their power, and a complete dollar collapse will unleash the US dogs of war to stop it. Oh it will be disguised as something else... war on terror, war on WMD, whatever, but all wars are financial in nature, and WWIII will be too. The problem is WWIII blows up all that TPTB have built. No way they give that up unless they are completely backed against the wall and WWIII is the only way. We seem to be long way from that.
My hooker realtor called, she gave up on RE, foreclosed on her properties 4 years ago, and got her Securities License,
wants to get me in on a good thing, STOCKS ONLY GO UP.......
HICCOUGH WITH LAUGHTER.
It's the Fed that makes Jeremy Siegel look like a genius and Hugh Hendry look like a dummy.
Financial genius is a short memory in a rising market
Let's be real...they've kept it going this long, every other CB is in the same boat, they can keep it going as long as they want because they know the pitchforks are locked up...have a little bread with that circus?
May this herd of trend-following junkie fake "bulls" all rot in hell along with their government and central bank props...
When Hussman throws in the towel, THEN we'll be close to the top.
That would shatter my world.
Hendry: "I've got the fever, and the only cure is
MORE COWBELL, MOTHERFUCKA!!!!!"
I promise not to cum in your mouth. Do you have Bitcoin or S&P FOMO?
Shakin' the branch Boss Shakin' the branch.
Sold! to the high bidder, one disheveled Hugh Hendry.
Prism of Trends. Those are the key words. They held in 1999/2000 with the dot.com tech community before the crash and the residential real estate 2007/2008 crash. No valuation fundamentals or sanity as the only means to value an "asset" was based on what the last like "asset" sold for. If Twitter is worth X then Snapchat must be worth Y. If my neighbors house sold for X$ per square foot then mine must be worth Y$ per square foot. What's really scary is that all valuations appear to be now based on comps rather than fundamentals such as, and I know this is hard to believe, Cash Flow.
While I understand his position and stance moving into the camp of the Bulls, what I would really be interested in is where is his hedging strategy over the long-term. Nobody, can believe that a boom cycle will last forever as if one thing has been proven time and time again, all good things eventually come to an end (and often violently and suddenly). The only question is when now as this never ending cycle eventually hits a wall. Some say less than a year so 2014 would be it. Others are looking at three years so 2016 would be it.
But one thing is for sure. The Bull's side of the boat is getting very heavy and crowded now and just like the Titanic, there are not going to be enough life boats to save everyone.
The hedge is a bag of PMs....along with the appropriate amounts of Booze/Bandaids/Beans/Bullets....
Jump in!!....the water is a bit salty from all the Fed wiz....but nobody has pooped in the hot tub yet!!
Aaah yes, 'investing' based on the Greater Fool principle!
Bullish
SELL.
... Its not a bubble, Jamie is not a crook, Elvis is not dead.
Red-coated coachman has nearly all in his snare. Time to cull the stock as he has convinced all, "no consequence, no judgement". The fruit of evil is sweet, and our god rewards us.
Everyone knows it is complete counterfeit and falsehood, and yet they participate. To what end, for what ultimate gain?
"To whom shall I speak, and give warning, that they may hear? behold, their ear is uncircumcised, and they cannot hearken."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAPZ-04OKbg
Don't you hate that when people have, like, uncircumsised ears; yuck.
... and the earth is fiat, ahhh, flat I mean
http://www.alaska.net/~clund/e_djublonskopf/Flatearthsociety.htm
I have followed Hendry for more than 5 years. I shared much of his outlook. But I too have come to believe that the Money Printers can and will elevate the markets. I screwed myself big time by being totally out of the bullrun. I admit it. A brother of mine has been on the other side of the fence, a bull. He has profited heavily from the huge run up in markets. While my cash postions have been destroyed by the Federal reserve.
I frankly did not believe unlimited money printing could go on this long. I was wrong. And now they speak of infinity. Yellen is going to up QE, she is there to print more and more.
Let us face facts. The US Federal Budget and all the Banks balance sheets ride on the Money Printing. Since neither government nor banks will be allowed to fail, then the Fed will print to infinity and markets will surge on the backs of over 85 billion a month in liquidity. What we bears need
to ask is "How could year after year of money printing and a stagnant main street economy result in a massive bull market, without any consequence that would force a pull back in printing".
Nobody in economics has ever seen this type of situation that the USA and EU face, both have taken the unlimited money printing path, and the "all in" globalization path. The new trade deals with the EU and Pacific Partners will up Globalization and Corporate Power to near infinity. The nation state will soon answer only to corporate powers. The citizens can vote, that is now a meaningless exercise. My proof? That is simple. The much hated socialist Obama is THE MAN, who is behind the two new trade pacts that will establish international corporate power at a level immune to government regulation, in fact, it establishes corporate leaders and the military/spy complexes as the ONLY real power in the world.
The result will be a world war. The USA and EU with Pacific partners like Japan and Australia will need to further the corporate tarde pacts and power transfer to the nations like Russia and Iran that reject the New World Order. If you wonder why all the talk of war, it is that the new world corporate elite is still being shut out of Russia's vast wealth and Iran's oil. China too is taking an independent path, it is not signing on to the New World Order, except as it can further China's export trade. China will not release it's government powers to an international global corporate and military elite homebased in the USA/Britain/Israel.
I see world war coming. Our western elties have taken the path of hitler, they will not back down til the world is conquered. This explaination is the only way to account for the last decade of US policy. Think about it. We as Americans are now powerless. Obama, Bush,Romney, no matter who follows them, it will be the same government the same policies, the same police state, the same corporate control.
Agree 100%. But, do you have "the guts" to buy the "trend".
I don't. Because there's a difference between "guts" and religion (economic OCD).
I just know in my gut that if I capitualte and buy the trend, it will be too late.
IMHO, the trend will likely continue, due to QE ->Infinity. Eventually something bad will happen to the currency. The USD tanks (rejected by the rest of the world), some hyperinflationary event (all the profits of the bulls will be inflationalry), the currency ultimatly tanks against gold (against other hard assets - high quality art for instance - it's already in progress). Or the deflationary pressures come in too strong (the real economy is not doing well)... or some sort of combination of all? Something's gonna break eventually, since this plan is not sustainable. And when it does, you won't stand a chance in getting out in time against the machines and HFT algos. I've made my choice. Watch the insanity unfold, and add on to my unhedged hedge against CB insanity. Good luck to all, we will all need it.
I can honestly say had I ridden the trend since then, I'd be a millionaire. Oh well.
I'll be ready for the next crash though.
Jack, I have to agree with pretty much everything you said. The only difference is I see WWIII as less likely then you do. TPTB have built this system to dominate the world, and enrich themselves at the expense of the masses. It's what sociopaths do. But also see the conflict between the 2 camps you outline, but more like a new Cold War with hot battles. Those battles will be financial, but also logistical. I can see attacks on IT, infrastructure, power grid, food distribution, environmental disasters to take out ports, etc. WWIII will be fought to incite the masses to revolt within the target countries. Sociopaths only fear revolution because that is the only real threat to their power. Revolutions with guilotines are the only things that can take everything from TPTB so that is what they fear. And since TPTB are all sociopaths, they know what their competing sociopaths fear. So it is logical that war between sociopaths will be fought by manipulating the masses to revolt against those govts. This is a tried and true method. Destabalize the target country from within. The communists worked it to perfection in Czarist Russia, and anyone can see the US system seems more like Czarist Russia then the Republic the founders envisioned.
SDShack, I agree in general with your premise and would add to your statement that “the communists worked it to perfection in Czarist Russia, and anyone can see the US system seems more like Czarist Russia then the Republic the founders envisioned,” that the Russian people people regard Nicolas as a martyr, according to the introduction to the book, The Last Days of the Romanovs:
Also, “a public opinion poll conducted in 1990 found that three out of four Soviet citizens surveyed regard the killing of the Tsar and his family as a despicable crime (The Nation, June 24, 1991, p. 838). Many Russian Orthodox believers regard Nicolas as a Martyr. The independent ‘Orthodox Church Board’ canonized the imperial family in 1991… The Russian Orthodox Archbishop of Ekaterinburg announced plans in 1990 to build a grand church at the site of the killings. ‘The people loved Emperor Nicholas,’ the Archbishop said. ‘His memory lives with the people, not as a saint, but as someone executed without court verdict, unjustly, as a sufferer for his faith and for orthodoxy.’ (Bill Keller, “Cult of the Last Czar, The New York Times, Nov. 21, 1990)”
Here is an account written in 1920 by Robert Wilton, correspondent of The London Times in Russia for 17 years of how Tsar Nicholas II and his family were murdered:
“In the night of July 16-17, 1918, Bolshevik secret police murdered Russia’s last emperor, Tsar Nicholas II, along with his wife, Tsaritsa Alexandra, their 14-year-old son, Tsarevich Alexei, and their four daughters. They were cut down in a hail of gunfire in a half-cellar room of the house in Ekaterinburg, a city in the Ural mountain region, where they were being held prisoner. The daughters were finished off with bayonets. To prevent a cult for the dead Tsar, the bodies were carted away to the countryside and hastily buried in a secret grave…”
The murders not only presaged Communist mass murder but are symbolic of the Communist effort to kill Russia itself. All the Romanovs who died violent deaths were convenient to Internationalist plans, according to Wilton.
That's right Jack! Even my family started to call me a "negative person", igot burnt on the endless QE, i never thought this is going to go on forever... i dont know, sometimes i think being stupid is abliss, at least i dont have to bother.
i dont even play this market anymore, i dont even want to make money thorugh this rigged casino, even if it meant that BTFATH is DOW 36K.
East Come , Easy go.. stay healthy and those avaricious mother fuckers like Ben et al will go to the dust bin of history for all what they done.
Jack, no normal person expected that the bankers would, for the sake of greed, destroy the entire country, taking its finest resources, the labor of its people and the future of its complete economic system.
I submit to you in all sincerity that Silver Bullion is Cash Money. It is a savings account that doesn't evaporate. This is a good time to change over to a cash position in real money; the exchange rate with the un-real money is quite good. As long as you have a time line of a couple of years, 24 little months; or more; you'll be quite satisfied. They're not going to start to giving away free Silver Bullion on the street corner. At $20 the recent devaluation of the dollar has been somewhat over compensated; it's good timing. check out bullionvault.com/ on google; read all about it; it's a transparent business; and it's as real as a hammer. Cheers.
I think we came very close to doomsday when Obama wanted to launch on Syria a few months ago. The next move is israel and Iran. The U.S. has already said that "we will live up to our commitments" if Israel unilaterally attacks Iran. It's written in stone that we will go to war with the resistors of the new world order.
The end must be close.
The Enzyte commercials are back.
Hilarity ensues.
He obviously feels that he is quick-footed enough to get out of town intact when the jig is up. At least he's not saying "it's different this time". Those are the guys who will be the bag holders.
I like the point someone in this stack made of Hendry being pragmatic. I agree. I say this as a person who counts gold as the best investment (so far) in his lifetime, and gold stocks the absolute worst going back 10 years.
This website, which I obviously still read, is a bear only site and it will NEVER say go long equities. I wish I would not have traded the equities I bought in Aug - Sept 2011 and sold more gold.
I know that some day the money will flow back into commodities. But, when will that be. Two months, five years??? The trend in commodities in general is down. I hope gold is bottoming here. I cannot afford to bet the house if I am wrong. However, I have so much gold that all I can do at this point is be a bull.
I don't exactly understand his logic in regards to how China "fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency".
He says that the resulting upward pressure on it's currency is caused by... US QE prompting dollar-denominated investment to head to China. And China "fights" it how?
"...by manufacturing an investment boom."
Huh?
Its about time, every dip has been a buy since the bottom in 09. Every dip will continue to be a buy till the FED says otherwise.
The chance of us closing out this year below 1800 is zero, just close your eyes and buy them; we are going signifigantly higher.
And if the entire gainful markets were comprised of hookers, coke, human slavery, and degredation of every noble precept on earth, would you throw in with the victims or oppressors? Robbery and plunder is the entire crumbling political/finance economy. And you still want to join in with the pirates? You still think the forbidden fruit was an apple?
I feel ya but if truth, fundamentals, moral etc had any bearing on market price these days things like Pandora and Twitter would not mave market caps of 5.5 Billion and 22.3 Billion respectively while gold falls out of bed.
We have proven concept, debts don't matter, fundamentals dont matter, nothing else matters, the only question is; Will the FED keep buying "assets"? If yes, buy the market because it is going to keep going higher till the answer to that question changes.
this is a foolish argument. The Stock Market in Zimbabwe went up over %30,000; but what good did it do the people stuck in Zimbabwe dollars? None. also, the Weimar Republic, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil; etc. etc. etc. France, centuries ago; etc. etc. The stock market has a limited ability to track some inflation; for some length of time; but no one knows how much or for how long. I believe it's a fool's game at the present. Hoping to make another 12%, before inflation; and not lose 20%, instead. The only thing more unstable would be a broom balanced on end. Stock prices are very high; silver prices are very low. At present they're underrepresenting the devaluation in the dollar that's already taken place; and yes, there are events and scenarios that can drive the price down further; but the real possibilities that I can see will only function for 3 to 6 months, if they occur. So what? As long as you have a two year timeline; it's very, very difficult to imagine how you could take a loss on Silver at $20. It's kind of a bet on human stupidity and the ability to fuck up this very complicated financial juggling act that they have going. that's not such a bad bet.
But that could never happen here.....infinity.
I now understand the meaning of "don't fight the fed."
TRAITOR!
Just in time for Santa to leave coal in the stockings of every wall streeter.
I like Hugh Hendry, he seems like a decent person, I suppose. But I will never, ever risk another dollar on, or waste another minute thinking about someone else's rigged game. Never.
Asshole!!
Hugh - say it isn't so!
Sellout!
Whore!
Have I left any our?
As the criminal collusion between corporate financial interests and the agencies of a tyrannical government is exposed, the battle lines are being drawn in bold relief in a financial and investment community which is becoming radically polarized.
As the currency is debased and what remaining standards of ethical behavior and financial accountability give way to rampant corruption, cronyism,and favoritism, those of us who still believe in equitable business constructs and legitimate financial practices find ourselves attacked, pilloried, and under assault by those who align themselves with the criminal cartels controlling and manipulating the free markets by coercion, extortion, and outright theft.
DOW 16000 and a hopelessly distorted precious metals sector go hand in hand with underreported record unemployment and chronic homelessness,endemic poverty, government statistical fabrication,rigged electoral processes and bribed,suborned and blackmailed public officialdom.
Anyone who supposes anything other than a catastrophic social outcome from this state of affairs is either apathetic or indifferent to obvious facts, delusional, or worse, actually engaged in the prevailing institutional malfeasance.which is most evident at the highest levels of so called governance and finance.
Hendry like so many of the others certainly does not surprise. Hedge fund managers have never been known for altruistic intentions or moral culpability.Thus his use of the word "virtuous" rings ludicrously hollow. His histrionic and maudlin capitulation comes on the heels of decades of predatory evisceration of sovereign debt and national assets. He is crying because his share of the spoils has shrunk to insupportable proportions. Like so many other financial predators his levels of cognitive dissonance are reaching critical proportions. As Carl Jung averred, mental illness has its roots in the inability to suffer the kind of pain you find yourself inflicting on others. Go for it Hugh, Rosenberg, Ivandjiiski et al. just stop affronting our sensibilties masquerading as offended innocence.
Another rat, jumping off the sinking ship
Rat!
I postedthis on another ZH thread. Seems appropriate here too.
The popular contrarian view is to usually (not always) take the position that if its "party like its 1999", then you take the other side and go short. If its "there's blood in the streets everywhere", you take the other side and go long. I admit that is very simplified - purposely for brevity. But, the popular meme today is, "if everybody's talking bubble, then its not a bubble". The behavioural implication, according to CNBC et al is to stay long. I would argue that IF EVERYBODY is saying its a bubble, and therefore, EVERYBODY (by contrarian implication) is saying it must not a bubble (because everyone is saying its a bubble), then, in my opinion, its still a fucking bubble because it begs the question, "why is everybody concerned we are in a bubble to begin with?". Otherwise, the contrarian view becomes an abused and useless meme. The meme becomes disingenous - almost meaningless.
For, the same thing was occuring in the late 20's. Everybody was long - but, there were many bubble attitudes about then too. And, eventually, everybody learned the hard way that it indeed was a bubble. Now, just like then, the contrarian approach to resolving or reconciling bubble v. no bubble, eventually regresses to a decreasing oscilating range that flatlines to where the contrarian meme defined above is almost meaningless. At which time, I think it becomes a question of real value and math. And to help us with that, we get the benefit of ZH who provides some calculus that helps to at least differentiate between memes and provide some clarity. In my opinion, the fact that we continue to hear "taper v. no taper" about 100 times per day, tells me that whether we want to admit it - its a bubble. Hanging on EVERY word or every minute of the FED to define one's next move - to me - is indicative not of a market, but, of a purely manipulated free lunch play and that ultimatley, EVERYONE knows that its a bubble. The problem is, right now, everybody smells smoke, but, until somebody races for the exits, the movie for now, plays on.
Financial Terrorist!
.
Some people whose study of the market was a tiny bit more serious and in depth than Joe Public were very aware that it was a bubble; hence, John P. Morgans' famouse quote as to why he wasn't disturbed by the recent stock market crash, "I sold too soon". Make sure you sell too soon, too.
“…..In the meantime, an index of German share prices (1913 = 100) rose from 126 in January 1918 to 531,300,000 in September 1923, and to 23,680,000 million in November 1923 amidst extremely high volatility. (In dollar terms, because of the currency depreciation, the same index (1913 = 100) fell from 101.55 in January 1918 to 2.72 in October 1922, before recovering to 39.36 in November 1923.) The extremely high volatility of the stock market is a typical feature of hyperinflating economies.”
ISSN 1017-1371, The Financial Implications of Reflation, Dr. Marc Faber,
there is no fucking chance the nasdaq finishes under 4000 today.
this fraud is just so fucking funny at this point, i am getting such great laughs.
its like no one wants to actually make real money, they just want to continue and push it up and up with no pullbacks.
even in the biggest bull markets, there r big down days, this shit is just so surreal
"there is a limitation here as we have explained previously, namely the amount of "high-quality collateral" which the Fed and the other central banks can and are rapidly soaking up, in the process destroying bond market liquidity, but that "discovery" will be made by the Fed far too late, despite even the repeated warnings of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee."
I don't seem to understand why there is a limitation. I understand the annual deficit is falling and thus there are fewer new bonds to buy. However, why can't the Fed just buy bonds that are maturing? There are trillions of short term bills maturing every year... Can't the treasury retire those short term bills and issue new 10/30 year bonds and sell them to the Fed (with the primary dealers as the middle men of course)?
What am I missing? Serious question. Not trying to be facetious. I understand this could destroy bond market liquidity, but let's face it we don't have a market in bonds anyway and the Fed will look to maintain the status quo as long as possible.
What part of "Don't Fight the FED" is too complex??
Memorial Day 2019
25K DOW
2500 S&P
"What part of "Don't Fight the FED" is too complex??"
The part where Greenspan dropped the rate 1% in January 2001 and the market kept going down for the next year and 9 months, anyway.
Bull markets end only after the last bear has capitulated.
Henry Call the Very Top !!!!!
AMAAAAAZING !!!
Capitulation ?
Hendry was a pussy. You sir are not.
That is what I repeat to myself at time like these.
All I've gotten for NOT being a pussy is getting my financial ass kicked. HARD.
Absolut shellbomb by China, still under the radar
US Dollar And Gold - PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves
We are following the groundbreaking changers coming out of China after The 3rd Plenum and PBOC drops another shell-bomb on the US Dollar today. We are witnessing the end of US Dollar as the Reserve Currency of Choice now. Who will be buying all these US Treasuries after that? How can FED Taper now? We can be assured about much higher interest rates with very far reaching implications for the economy and the U.S. fiscal budget. Timing of this release is very interesting - just yesterday Gold was killed after the release of FOMC minutes. We are entering the new dramatic stage of the Currency Wars, when China picks the old Austrian economics truth - strong currency means strong country. How long Gold Smashing can keep it down with COMEX running on fumes and record high leverage? http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/us-dollar-and-gold-pboc-says-no-long...
<<< END is near
<<< END is far
The END is going to be defined -- if ever -- only in hind-sight.
Depends on who is writing the history. If the same psychos are running the store it will be defined as a "transition". I understand why he is throwing in the towel but it is sad. Had a discussion with a sister last night and she reminded me that I have been predicting another crash since 08 and it has not come to pass. Deep down though - I know I'm right - because of logic, math and history.
Brother, do I know the pain of your certainty.
For sure, it's just a poll to see how people FEEL about it, right or wrong, we'll only know after the fact, as you rightly point out.
Funny how psychology works - a Fed official was called to resign for intervening in the market (today: WTF??) (March 27, 1929) , and then this:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/timeline/crash/
September 5, 1929Bearish economist Roger Babson gives a speech, saying, “Sooner or later, a crash is coming, and it may be terrific.” He has been delivering this message for two years, but for the first time, investors listen. The market takes a severe dip, which will be called the “Babson Break.” The next day, prices will stabilize, but the collapse has begun.
The joke is; the market didn't listen. After the fact, the news agencies look around and pick out a "cause", and run with it. for real. This is what actually happens.
Because the futures uncertain and the end is always near. (or was it? "may well be near") It makes a differance, but I was mostly stoned while listening to The Doors.
All these guys want to be the next Paulson and become a billionaire when the market crashes.
Try looking your children in the face when you have been short for the last year with your own money not other peoples money who you charge 2% for the privlage.
Hendry going long??? I suggest we panic!
Ben: "It's time to taper. Release the Kraken!".
Over.
There is no alternative. It cant end because automation makes most labor unnecessary which creates social unrest. Entitlements offset this pressure. FED easing is necessary to support entitlements. All developed countries engage in competitive currency devaluation so there is little or no impact on inflation in these countries. For the other 3 billion people who live on little or nothing life continues in desperation. Everyone that can moves to an entitlement state/country and as a by product equities go up. It will not end because the .001% get richer. This is only possible because all the developed countries are engaged in the same practice. Zuckerberg's open borders policy just makes him richer since this creates more entitlements. I bet Bush wishes he had thought of this policy.
"There is no alternative. It cant end because automation makes most labor unnecessary which creates social unrest."
QE isn't about the economy, it is about the banks.
Markets can stay in bubble land longer than he could stay solvent.
just like soldier that died the last day of war. cause the end is very very close. closer than you think
Who is Hendry? If he has been wrong, who is he now reversed, then continues to be wrong? Again I ask, "Who is Hendry?"
If I looked liker Hendry, I'd not only capitulate - I'd jump out the freekin window...
Capitulation happens at the top too.
Knock, knock...
Who's there?
Hugh..
Who, me?
Not you, Hugh!
So who are you?
Hugh..
So I'm you?
No - I'm Hugh, you're you...
Hmmm... paging Nancy Pelosi.... paging Nancy Pelosi....
Feel sorry for the poor bastard. The FED may taper in December. Though I really beleive that this market can't tank until Tyler capitulates and becomes a roaring Bull.
You can't taper a Ponzi.