This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Terrifying Technicals: This Chartist Predicts An Anti-Fed Revulsion, And A Plunge In The S&P To 450
Via Walter J. Zimmermann Jr. of United-ICAP,
"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences."
- Robert Louis Stevenson
Main Points
1. History is written as much by the unforeseen consequences of key events as by the events themselves. We prefer not to think in these terms, but history clearly reveals that the adverse consequences of well intended efforts often have a much more dramatic and lasting impact than the original efforts themselves.
2. In fact history suggests a law of adverse consequences where the more insistent and forceful the well intended effort, the more dramatic, powerful and harmful the blowback. In simple terms, attempts to force the world to improve have always ended badly.
3. This law of adverse consequences is a very common phenomena in medicine and is known by the euphemism of ‘side effects’. Adverse drug reactions to prescribed medications are the fourth leading killer in America, right after heart disease, cancer, and stroke. However this expression of the law of unintended consequences gets even less press than its expressions in human history. Neither is a popular topic.
4. One could easily write several volumes of history focused exclusively on the unwelcome repercussions from otherwise well-intended efforts. However as this is a subject that we would all rather avoid I suspect it would be a very difficult book to market.
5. Instead of a book I have opted for two pages of examples. The present situation strongly suggests that the high risk of unexpected blowback from current economic policies are much more deserving of our full attention than the past history of unwelcome consequences.
6. QE has already created what is arguably the most bullish market sentiment in history. And that extreme bullish sentiment has already driven most stock indices to new all time highs. So now would be a good time for some sober reflections on what could go wrong.
7. One sector that seems dangerously poised to go badly wrong are the junk and emerging bond markets. What will happen when Treasuries start yielding the same rates as previously issued junk debt? A massive exodus will happen. Junk bonds and emerging market debt will become a disaster area.
8. We already know how wildly successful Fed stimulus has been at creating speculative bubbles. Fed inflated bubbles that have already burst include a Dot-Com bubble, a credit bubble, a real estate bubble, and a commodity market bubble. The biggest bubble of them all is still inflating. That would be this stock market bubble.
9. There are now fewer banks than ever before in modern history. And the biggest banks are larger than ever before in history. The war against ‘too big to fail’ was lost before it began. Fewer, bigger banks means a more fragile financial system.
10. The worst of the bullish sentiment extremes of previous major stock market peaks have all returned. Analysts are positively gushing with ebullience. There is a competition to see who can come up with the highest targets for the various stock indices. No one sees any downside risk. All are confident that the Fed can and will fix anything. This is a situation ripe for adverse consequences. This is a market where blowback will be synonymous with blind-sided. No one will prepare for what they cannot see coming.
Comparing Costs: Major US Wars versus Quantitative Easing
The chart above suggests that the magnitude of the Federal Reserve economic stimulus program is only comparable to previous major war efforts. The dollar costs plotted here bears that out.
War Costs
All of the war costs on the previous page were taken from one report dated 29 June 2010. That report was prepared by Stephen Dagget at the Congressional Research Service. I adjusted his numbers to 2013 dollars. You can find his report in PDF format on-line. However some further comments may be useful here.
Civil War
The Civil War number combines the Northern or Union costs and the Southern or Confederate costs. In 2011 dollars the price of waging the war for the Union was $59.6 billion dollars and $20.1 billion for the Confederacy. I simply added these two numbers and then converted to 2013 dollars.
Post 9/11 Wars
Here I combined the costs of the Persian Gulf war, and Iraq war, and the war in Afghanistan into one category and then adjusted to 2013 dollars.
Sending a Man to the Moon
I thought it would be interesting to compare the costs of sending a man to the moon to the costs of QE. Most references to the cost of putting a man on the Moon only cite the Apollo project. But of course that is very wrong. Apollo arose from Gemini which grew out of Mercury. So for the true cost of sending a man to the Moon I included all costs for the Mercury missions, the Gemini program, the Lunar probes, the Apollo capsules, the Saturn V rockets, and the Lunar Modules. I relied on numbers gathered from NASA by the Artemis Project. I then converted those costs to 2013 dollars.
World War II versus Quantitative Easing
WW II
World War II transformed the United States from a sleepy agricultural enterprise into the world’s dominant economic super-power, and defeated both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan at the same time. It may seem entirely callous to calculate US Dollar costs for a war that claimed 15,000,000 battle deaths, 25,000,000 battle wounded, and civilian deaths that exceeded 45,000,000 but there is a point to this exercise.
The second world war defeated the strategy of geographical conquest through militarism as a national policy. Of course WW II had it’s own undesirable blowback as anything on this gigantic a scale would. However it seems pretty clear that replacing fascism and militarism with democracy was a step of progress for mankind.
WW II and QE
Since the 1950’s many have argued that it took World War II to pull the world out of the Great Depression. As a life-long student of the Great Depression Bernanke must be aware of this debate. In terms of the dollar amounts involved, World War Two is the only project comparable in size to QE. So it seems reasonable to assume that Bernanke’s goal here is to have QE fulfill the economic role of a World War Three; a war-free method of pulling the world out of the Great Recession. However human history suggests that the sheer magnitude and forced nature of the QE program all but ensures serious, unexpected and adverse consequences.
Learning from History
I am not bearish on the human race. When I read history I see things getting better. When I read history I find the slow replacement of brutality with compassion. When I read history I find the long term trend to be the replacement of centralized authority with local self-determination. And I find that every single effort to fight these long term trends has failed. And as history continues to unfold the efforts to fight these trends tends to fail more quickly, more dramatically, and more decisively.
There is an ancient Chinese proverb that states “Plan too far ahead and nature will seem to resist.” That aphorism definitely resonates with my experience and observations. If there is something inherent in the flow of time that unfolds an improvement in the human condition, then there is also something in the nature of things that resists the application of force, whether well intended or not.
If all of the above is an accurate accounting of things, then the key issue for policy makers is finding the fine line that separates supporting the natural flow of human evolution from attempting to force change. The former will help while the later will end badly. The question today has to do with Quantitative Easing. Is QE a gentle nurturing of economic evolution or is it the next doomed attempt to force things to get better? The QE program is so enormous, and relentless, and insistent, that I fear it is the later. And if QE is a huge attempt to force the economy to improve, than we had better start bracing for the blowback.
QE: the blowback to come
What kind of blowback should we prepare for? The lesson of history is that trying to force things to get better does not merely create unwelcome repercussions. It does not merely slow the pace of natural evolution. Attempts to enforce a certain outcome always appears to create the opposite effect. We do not find a law of adverse consequences. We find a law of opposite impacts.
Let us review the sample examples from the previous charts. Every effort to jam an ideology or a plan down the throat of the world only creates the opposite of the intended effect. I would maintain that this is one of the few lessons from history that can be relied on.
If the Federal Reserve is trying to force feed us prosperity then the inevitable blowback will be adversity. If the Fed is trying to compel the most dramatic economic recovery in history, then the blowback may well be the deepest depression in history. If the Fed is trying to enforce confidence and optimism then the blowback will be fear and despair. If the Fed is trying to force consumers to spend then the blowback will be a collapse in consumer confidence.
I sincerely hope that I am completely wrong here, that I am missing something, that there is a flaw in my logic. However until I can locate such a flaw I must trust the technical case for treating this Fed force-fed rally in the stock market as something that will end badly.
Here's how it plays out...
»
- 77715 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
the overwhelming beleif that this cannot happen because the fed won't let it happen, gives credence to why it might just happen. please, please let this happen under obamas watch.
when everyone is on one side of the boat it usually rolls over.
You do realize that this is global and that the Big Pool has been pissed in way too much and that we're running out of chlorine (growth), yes?
when this happens, and it will, in this caldron of polygot, one better be capable of swimmin' in blood.
Ah, shut the fuck up!
SP will obviously readjust but ZH has been spewing market crash is imminent since pretty much the start of the rally of SP. In fact, I partially would blame ZH and other bearish porn sites for helping the melt-up as they keep shorting the market, only to find they have to cover.
Good news: people on ZH seem to be letting down the short-to-zero mentality, so an expectation of a correction is fairly reasonable.
believe a correction is healthy is why most bulls will hold it all the way down
This chart is of concern but whom it concerns is still not clear to me, yet.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
Something different happened in 2008??
then there is this...
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_1_1
Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors), 2003-October 2013 (Thousand Megawatthours)declining the last 4 years,
"In fact, I partially would blame ZH and other bearish porn sites for helping the melt-up as they keep shorting the market, only to find they have to cover."
You're taking financial advice from a "FREE SITE?" Not too bright, are ya?
My guess is that some kind of a crisis will be wheeled out, any old crisis, but not a fed crisis. That way the market can drop a few hundred points without having to gut everyone like a fish; but more importantly, it'll keep the tide from going out on the fed... revealing that it not only hasn't any pants on, but that it also has no cock.
Technically sub 500 is correct, Unfortunately the FED controls the stock indexes with their software and won't allow that to heppen until the Department of Homeland Security and their drones are in place.
i heard someone once say
"fucky'all"
that made sense to me then and now
in a way that should be reserved for
mature audiences, bitches.
.
hear this.
Jef Lee Johnson - A Vaulx Jazz Live (2009)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA8Gqc7l-cA
.
or not....
the mix and complexity do not eliminate
the good and the bad, the right and the wrong
as some are so confused; they just provide
texture, warmth and interest/intrigue for further
exploration and articulation, life as we want and
need to know it.
gender, who articulates the meaning of it
and what does it signify in the larger scheme of
things? aside
"it's the beat" shem
This thing isn't going down until TPTB decides it's time. When that happens there won't be any escape. All this chart porn is simply BS.
the thing is the tptb will never decide
to slit their own throats, will they?
But at some point it should be clear to them that they have run out of leverage. When ALL is based on growth it is only a matter of time before reality takes over...
chart porn provides time lapse
to occupy the masses and wall
street while the robbery of the treasury
and banking system continues , ongoing.
the meth money dumbo circus prevails
in full regalia
at the expense of truth and humanity
in general; they call it "civilization"
and traffic safety. things like that
You know it will be a top when TPTB ban the 3x short vehicles. They have already laid the groundwork saying how dangerous they are, the next step is to ban them, then we get the crash.
IZZ MANIPERLATED!!
Oh, bullshit! Buy now or be priced out forever. Or until next year. Whichever comes first.
Re: "here's how it plays out" graph
Is that before or after you figure in the possibility of hyperinflation as the FED tries to save their friends?
My best guess is that there will be a lot of trillionaires around, in the Zimbabwe sense - a trillionaire that can't afford toilet paper.
Well, if you do become a Zimbabwe billionaire and need toilet paper, be sure to request the small denomination notes.
Dude, what makes you think the Well Intended Efforts you cite were actually well-intended by those who set them into play?
Second point: blowback deferred is blowback multiplied. Just because there hasn't been blowback yet doesn;t mean it's not on its way.
Third: unlike fish or meat, intellectual capital is a safe sell. Takes longer to stink and it's easier to forget. You/ve got nothing invested and when you're wrong you're still in business.
A bunch of arbitrary lines say it's going to crash! Oh noes! My astrologer says the market will go up. Now I don't know what to think.
There's been a lot of these crash scinarios written recently here .
While anythings possible the charts too short term .
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=SPY00&style=technical&template=&p=...
If you look at sp above . Since 1987 crash the market has been in
7 year cycles . 1987-1994 start of bill maker ( with a moderate up slope)
1994-2000/01 accelerated 7 year rally
Then
2001-2007/08 7 year side ways/ bear market ( yes it rallied from
lows but failed to take out old highs ect )
2007/08-20013/14 again sideways / bear market failing to take our highs
2000.
Ie so after a 14 year rally from 1987 crash low to 2000 peak (300 to 1500 about in sp) the market went side ways for 14 years and just recently broke up. Ie it could crash but we could be at the beginning of 7 year up cycle.
So what's possible to lead this .
1) look at news now on California and Florida both having
budget surpluses of 1 bill last year. First time in 10 years a long with
many other states.
2) Ireland just got upgraded and Portrigual improved out look ( both will be issuing long bonds again this year).
Ie fiscal situation is improving . Tax receipts are increasing
so something positive is going on.
Ie Becareful looking for large correction you might be waiting until
2021..
Increased taxes are positive to growth? Maybe growth of government, but not much else. You do realize that governments around the world are all raising taxes and fees on anything and everything. Worker participation rates are getting worse by the week and virtually every government is becoming more tyrannical, which is never bullish in the long run for the economy. But if the economy is not your concern, only the perceptions of an economy that drive the gamblers on wall street, there is no telling. Perceptions are much easier to manipulate than real numbers, as you have just shown us.
Who rated Ireland and Portugal? Not the same guys that gave the mortgage backed securities trip 'a' ratings I hope...
Thanks for the SPX Elliott Wave charts.
In term of percentages, Upward Cylcle Wave b would equal Cycle Wave a near SPX 2209.
So the probability is there for a "Blow-off" Wave 5 of C of b, late this year to the SPX 2200 area, before the devastating Downward Cycle Wave c.
carlosgunx.com
Elliot wave theory!! First class ticket to underperformance.
I still see QE as artificially keeping the bond market rates low like Japan has done. Once rates rise the free spending governments of the world will default on the bonds and stocks will be better investments. Pension funds are being squeezed and will need to buy stocks plus sell bonds as there is little hope for most pensions to be made whole at this point.
OT, Why do the ZH Putin Man Crush team not blame Putin for not cracking down on the Russian Hackers that have hit pretty much every Credit Card customer in the US?
Are the Putin Man Crush team really that stupid?
450? That will be a great buying opportunity.
I think the debt goes default somewhere china thailand somewhere something will snap then the fed will be powerless, except they will have to try and it will be te collapse. who knows when maybe 2/22
No one cares what happens to the S&P 500.
I do.
And so? The dialect of Zero/Hedge is one sy/la/ble ?
Throw a zero on that prediction, I will believe the S&P will plunge to 4500 after we touch 5000 in a year or so.....
Hey, yo Tyler, I didn't hear no bell!
11 weeks and 3 days. TheRideNeverEnds
I won't waste my time down/voting YOU!
Reminds me of prechters moronic predictions if the Dow going back to 700 all through the 90's.
Gloomers just don't fucking get it. They spend all this time looking at charts and still don't even understand the game.
Op should go to dental school or give happy endings at the massage parlor. Market analysis is not their thing. Acending wedge with a logical target if 450 because we'll you know just because
Why not 100.
It can't be a top because "The Retail Investor" is out of the market, and their house... Sleeping under a bridge, in a cardboard box.
It's ZULU +7. Welcome China. ( Los Angeles basin circa 1976}
Federal Reserve of the Banks, by the Banks and for the Banks.
The rest of the country and its citizens be damned. The main aim of the political class and the central bankers around the world is to create one bubble after another for the zombie bankers to feed on. The majority of the population who actually work hard to earn their living by engaging in productive work have to pay the price by either loosing a majority of their earnings in the form of taxes, interest on loans or paying the bill for the bailouts.
www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html
US markets are like a comatose patient monitored 24/7 … if the patient starts to wake the FED will simply up the dosage and put them back under.
Charts may well show the patient’s vital organs have failed and death is imminent … but the patient is on the heart-Lung bypass machine and so respiration will continue and the skin will remain warm to the touch.
Stephen King wishes he had these genius ideas.
Phantastic article idead
Most spooky
It's amazing, the number of trolls that scan Z/H off our IP. I sit here in Cairns Qld, building a new home and wonder why I waste my time?
To take your mind off of the heat and related fires?
Negative Tinky/ It's just the same!
In case some of us forgot, or never understood, why the market falls are so visciously fast, is fear chases off buyers. With no buyers, the price is effectively zero.
The fed is the buyer.
They are not stewards of the economy, they will do this until supply chains fail. Fail. No food. No power. No fuel. Fail, fail, fail, fail, FAIL. That will be the undeniable "tell." Can't keep telling the lie then. Until then, everyone is free to be either ignorant, willfully ignorant, in cognitive dissonance, or trying to pick up nickels in front of the steam roller (I think even many of the "rich" get it too, failing supply chains do that to effete entitled fucktards who never had to think for themselves or work a day in their lives beyond finding the next host to meet their parasitic needs). Some of us stay out of it but watch, knowing what is coming is vastly chaotic. The thing is, I just might die before it happens, but it will happen. Big and bad, primitive running man and woman bad. Only with guns, until the ammo runs out.
what is most interesting about this analysis is that it looks at the history and essentially qualitative dynamic of human action as seen through aggregate control of money (printing and or borrowing by major institutions)----
and it then , for whatever reasons, decides to take a 180' and make a quantitative prediction on charting.
these are not like yin and yang lenses of reality. these are basically separate lines of thinking that may exist in the same world of looking at the future, but simply have nothing to do with one another.
i think the charting predictions ruined the insightful take on the historical human behioral forces that are playing at work through debasement "easing"
Charts are hard data and reflect a set of opinions of people with money. A pefect valid way of understanding human behavior is to analyze how they act, in this case with money.
sunny
If you pull your money out of the system for one to three days. They will shit themselves silly. No stuffed animal or calendar when you sign up for a new account.
It would support that FDIC can't handle bank insurance obligations. The lie would be fully visible.
Don't forget, GS makes money trading every day!!!! EVERY DAY!!! Someone run those probabilities.... Stocks will go down when Goldman says it's ok for stocks to go down. Now go get your shine box
"Stocks will go down when Goldman says it's ok for stocks to go down. Now go get your shine box"
hahaha seriously?- They won't say it, they'll just do it without warning.
--Getting back to Largarde's, and central bankers', fear of deflation. Does it seem a little obsessive to you? After all, where is the deflation? It's certainly not in asset prices. Over the past few years, the good old boys in the central banking club have pulled off the most successful reflation in history.
--It's been so successful, in fact, that if it falters now, we're apparently going to be in a world of ogre-filled pain.
--So no deflation in asset markets. Just rampant inflation. But the world's financial overlords don't even consider asset price inflation to be inflation at all. According to them, it's 'wealth'.
--Their one-dimensional approach to the inflation/deflation theme is goods and services inflation. But even according to the highly cooked official measures of goods and services inflation, you're not seeing outright deflation in any major economy.
--We say highly cooked because there are all sorts of strategies to hide inflation these days. There's the official ones like 'hedonic adjustments' and market based ones like shrinking packaging and lower quality ingredients…even restaurants re-jigging their menus with lower quality meat cuts and cheaper ingredients to keep prices low.
--That wouldn't be a necessary strategy if wages were keeping pace with 'real' inflation.
--But you can't really hide inflation when it comes to beer. They tried it in Sydney years ago with the emergence of the shameful 'schmiddy', a cross between a schooner and a middy, with a schooner price tag. And while everyone grumbled about it, it was apparently worth the price to drink at an 'upmarket' pub.
--Now you can't get away with buying a pint in Melbourne for much under $10. It's a national tragedy.
--But we digress…
--So where exactly is this obsession with deflation coming from?
--It serves two purposes. One is to provide cover for central banks to stimulate for as long as they can. The whole purpose of easy money is to raise the price level and 'inflate' away the debts of the irresponsible.
--This avoids the need to write down and restructure bad debts. To do so would hit banks' profitability. And we all know banks are off limits when it comes to taking responsibility for previously poor lending decisions. So the little man pays through the subtle inflation tax.
--The irony of the whole thing though is that current central bank policies merely create vast amounts of speculation and asset price inflation. This raises the risk of a destabilising asset price bust that will REALLY bring about the risk of a deflationary depression.
--Only this time people will finally see that the central bankers were the primary cause of it. When this happens, confidence evaporates and the game is up. To avert a meltdown of historic proportions, markets will probably close for a few days while the rules of the game change. But that possibility is over the horizon at this point.
--Still, when it arrives much wealth will be lost. Inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin. One leads to another. And the more inflation you have, the greater the deflation that will come after.
--With people like Lagarde calling the shots, it's no wonder the world has problems. And sorry to say, these problems aren't going away. They'll fester under the surface and then one day will explode, revealing these people as the frauds that they are.
http://gawker.com/literally-no-one-believes-the-stock-market-will-go-dow...
So what does it mean when some lefty shit gossip site writes about all the Bulls!!
Stop pretending.
No attempts to force people are well intended.
"When I read history I see things getting better. When I read history I find the slow replacement of brutality with compassion."
LOL. Oh my. What a bunch of valley girl fop complete with interogative inflections straight from the Galeria food court. FYI: The 20th century was hands down THE bloodiest and most brutal century in human history. 175 million people were intentionally killed either through war or murder. Bosnia, Serbia, Rwanda, Hiroshima, the smokestacks of Aushwitz, Agent Orange, depleted uranium munitions, Fukushima, etc., ad nauseum....any of this ringing a bell? 21st century is turning out to be more of the same. You can have civilization, or, you can have nuclear weapons. You can't have both. So flush out your headgear.
Another eye-roller, but on this point you are probably right: "So it seems reasonable to assume that Bernanke’s goal here is to have QE fulfill the economic role of a World War Three..."
It seems reasonable to me that the best way to make a cup of Earl Grey is to put a kettle on the exhaust manifold then drive up to Pike's Peak. Et Voila!
For example.......http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=1118839....
POW MIA again.
When we have money and decide to not spend. Multiple that figure out by the millions. We still hold purging power to have corporations reduce further head count. When they decide to go robot retard, kaboom for crony capitalism corporations. Call this the silent death model.
Codswallop! The market will go up. The market will go down. Read me another one there, Nostradamus.
Couple of thoughts:
1) Fuck Elliot Wave Theory
2) This guy is probably right
I guess it can just go on like this f o r e v e r . . .
You;re a basement baby!
(( 99 % of you clowns )) couldn't read a chart if your pensions depended on it.
Junkin De' spreckin
Usd /jpy is getting ugly. As I stated earlier "last month' 101.50 .
Good call - 101.50 is an Ichimoku cloud-top on the daily.
Might be a good short if you're into that counter-trend stuff and have the patience as the SSI is more long than short.
It'd have to drop below 100 for a longer term reversal.
In 2008 the economy ran off a cliff and since then we have been in freefall. While we should have had a hard landing,we have not yet actually landed... thanks to the Fed: However what the Fed has done has turned the drop off the cliff from a 10 foot drop into a 200 foot drop...and now the technicals are saying this too. The landing is going to be ugly.
There are two eventualities that are the ultimate black swan events - which cannot be timed with precision. One, the moment a major player (Asia, Europe, or 3rd world) refuses to purchase any more US debt but rather cashes it all in to turn away from the dollar (regardless of the damage to their economy that results short term), triggering either a hyper inflationary US collapse or deflationary collapse (irrelevant which flavor collapse occurs), and two, the moment physical gold owners refuse to sell for payment in any form of Federal Reserve Notes. Once these have happened we can say there has been a total reset in world debt and equity markets, particularly in the US, and in the physical gold market (the only one that matters). At that moment the only option available to US leaders is to exercise military power (on or off shore), but given the collapse of the USSR in 1989, even they did not use their nukes but essentially went quietly, to fight another day. So may our military and leaders bringing their equipment with them instead of a pension.
The only certainty is a dramatic drop in US middle class standards of living, lots of lies, and a reshuffle of the deck for superpowers in the early 21st century. I wish I had learned Mandarin! Too late for this old dog.
Although I enjoy the academic analysis from ZH articles as these, we will not know which way this swings until it truly starts to unravel. As to contributors who say the US gov't/FED/ etc will do everything possible to buy more time, you better believe it! But even they will run out of rope, as Reinhard & Rogoff and Talib explain in their books. Finally, consider that living in the age of Roman collapse, the best place to be was still in Rome, just not too close to the carnage, and living under the radar in 375 AD. Buy a farm, convert wealth into physical goods, and learn how to lay low as millions have done in times gone by. If you can't swing the farm have something similar that will always have value even if paper stocks/bonds/FRNs become useless.
I'm not much of a farmer but I know a little about small arms repair and maintenance. Might become a retirement job for me. It will be interesting how the next generation fares. My son, at age 31, is all in on PMs (liquidated retirement assets) and never expects to withdraw a dime from an IRA, 401K or SS pension. He is voting with his money and at his age! I'm of a like mind but at 26 years older, am surprised he is more pessimistic than I am. Of course, he is an employee of the Federal Govt and might see things hidden to me and others.
Not... A... Chance...
QE fo' life.
This guy makes Russell Napier seem bullish.
All the charts in the world, actually predict nothing. Their only use is to explain what happened after the fact. At some point pundents will attach prior predictions to future charts and then point out (in a book hyped on CNBC) how their chart said it would be so.
If I could predict the future I would be buying lottery tickets, not wasting time warning the public. 99% of the public is only interested in next week's episode of Honey Boo Boo or the upcoming draft picks.
The middle class has suffered a huge pinch in the last 5 years. The disposable income in the middle class continues to shrink with the increase in the cost of average everyday items like food and gas, the so-called "transitory" items. Couple that with stagnant wages, the rise of part-time jobs and the fall of full-time jobs (due in part to Obamacare) and you have the middleclass being squeezed into the lower class segment. All I know is what I see and live on a daily basis. Anecdotally, fewer and fewer people have money for a downpayment to go buy a car. Special financing is on the rise again big time. Buy here die here will be the trend for years to come.
I can't wait!
I do see a full blown panic in the future. Anywho, a few words of wisdom, weedhopper: “Folks, it's time to evolve. That's why we're troubled. You know why our institutions are failing us, the church, the state, everything's failing? It's because, um – they're no longer relevant. We're supposed to keep evolving. Evolution did not end with us growing opposable thumbs. You do know that, right?” - Bill Hicks
The Democrats initiated the crash of 2008 once McCain took the lead in the early September post convention bounce. Once it becomes clear that they will lose the Senate in 2014 expect a similar crisis. The GOP always gets the blame. The Dems will call up their pals at Goldman & the market will crash probably @ October 1.
Beware Major League Baseball and their satellites... Time to get off the focusyn!
The Democrats initiated the crash of 2008 once McCain took the lead in the early September post convention bounce. Once it becomes clear that they will lose the Senate in 2014 expect a similar crisis. The GOP always gets the blame. The Dems will call up their pals at Goldman & the market will crash probably @ October 1.
Example of not-so-well intended effort and its...meh, fuck the little people consequences:
Effort, aka, plot: U.S. agriculture department conspires with big business to create food pyramid to support grain sales, under the guise of increasing food supply and preventing heart disease.
Consequence: Entire country gets fat and dies of cancer, diabetes and heart disease.
This is one of the most serious issues around right now—huge amounts of money and lives have been destroyed through the propaganda driven lie about healthy eating. And like many other world ills, it started in the US with greed and spread across the whole world.
My butcher gives me discounts on my meat because I don't ask him to cut the fat off—virtually all meat he sells to the general public has an added premium for removing fat because everyone thinks it will kill them. Then they eat their trim pork or trim lamb on a fat bread roll made with mutated wheat, thickly spread with chemical-laden margarine and layered with processed cheeses that don't even involve cheese cultures. And then they top it with sugar-saturated sauces. According to the government (and most westerners) that is a healthy meal.
A year ago I reverted to eating how my great-grandparents eat: I have raw milk, farm eggs, and make my own dripping (tallow) and lard for cooking. I only use spelt flour in my own cooking when I need flour. Now when I eat anything from a supermarket I can taste the chemicals. The food all smells rancid or wrong in a way I can't really describe. We have been so deceived.
I tried to tell my brother about all of this long ago, and he did not believe me. He assumed I was being childish and overreacting
The big question is what will be the catalyst? How many here are buying way out of market options? The risk models on them are frankly wrong.
I think the catalyst will be an event like China V Japan, or NK V SK. Both with US involvement. Or maybe Israel V Islam, with US invovlement. The Fed cannot control any of those........ or can they?
If you think he is right then sell your silver as it wou be at $2/oz when the sp hit 450. Also, gold w/b $200.
Yangs going to be a bitch.
1.382 is the max amount wave B can travel vs. A, not a target for wave B. If anything, the fact that the proposed wave B has traveled this far argues against it being a B, not for it. Some chartist. Prechter, is that you?
i doubt robinson cano and clayton kershaw are too concerned about these charts.
"Adverse drug reactions to prescribed medications are the fourth leading killer in America, right after heart disease, cancer, and stroke. "
I'd love to see a reputable source for that. If he's as free-and-easy with something as easily verifiable as this, what else is he making up?
On the other hand, I've heard that 87% of statistics are made up.
I think it has moved up in the rankings. It is a tough call. A lot of people are all screwed up on meds these days. What is death? How could you possibly say "something as easily verifiable as this?" You would get your data from the AMA maybe? Assasins and Murderers Associated.
This is why China buys so much Gold now:
China Expands Gold Reserves to 2,710 Tons - Third Largest In The World
Now we have the confirmation from China IMF reporting to the previous report from Bloomberg. China is very serious in accumulation Gold and latest reports from Germany about the Gold price manipulation are coming now with the record leverage at COMEX with 112 owners per each ounce of Gold!http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/01/china-expands-gold-reserves-to-2710....
investors underestimate the Feds non-QE tools, at keeping the market going. the patient comes out of surgery, and two days later you send them home with a series of very strong pain killers, like POMO, REPO, and the PPT. so the patients color and demeanor continue to improve, never mind that half his organs have failed. then his doctor hands him off to the oncologist (Yellen), who hands him off to hospice (gives the debt back to UST). and everyone pulls the chord on their golden parachute. That guy? What ever happened to him? (just to use the healthcare analogy)
"Aye, watch out to starboard you land lubbers and remember the curse of the black spot lies on us."
If the Fed is so powerful, why are long term rates rising?