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U.S. Cattle Herd Is At A 61 Year Low And Organic Food Shortages Are Being Reported All Over America
Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,
If the extreme drought in the western half of the country keeps going, the food supply problems that we are experiencing right now are only going to be the tip of the iceberg. As you will see below, the size of the U.S. cattle herd has dropped to a 61 year low, and organic food shortages are being reported all over the nation. Surprisingly cold weather and increasing demand for organic food have both been a factor, but the biggest threat to the U.S. food supply is the extraordinary drought which has had a relentless grip on the western half of the country. If you check out the U.S. Drought Monitor, you can see that drought conditions currently stretch from California all the way to the heart of Texas. In fact, the worst drought in the history of the state of California is happening right now. And considering the fact that the rest of the nation is extremely dependent on produce grown in California and cattle raised in the western half of the U.S., this should be of great concern to all of us.
A local Fox News report that was featured on the Drudge Report entitled "Organic food shortage hits US" has gotten quite a bit of attention. The following is an excerpt from that article...
Since Christmas, cucumbers supplies from Florida have almost ground to a halt and the Mexican supply is coming but it's just not ready yet.
And as the basic theory of economics goes, less supply drives up prices.
Take organic berries for example:
There was a strawberry shortage a couple weeks back and prices spiked.
Experts say the primary reasons for the shortages are weather and demand.
And without a doubt, demand for organic food has grown sharply in recent years. More Americans than ever have become aware of how the modern American diet is slowly killing all of us, and they are seeking out alternatives.
Due to the tightness in supply and the increasing demand, prices for organic produce just continue to go up. Just consider the following example...
A quick check on the organic tree fruit market shows that the average price per carton for organic apples was $38 per carton in mid-January this year, up from an average of just $31 per carton last year at the same time. At least for apple marketers, the organic market is heating up.
Personally, I went to a local supermarket the other day and I started to reach for a package of organic strawberries but I stopped when I saw that they were priced at $6.99. I couldn't justify paying 7 bucks for one package. I still remember getting them on sale for $2.99 last year.
Unfortunately, this may only be just the beginning of the price increases. California Governor Jerry Brown has just declared a water emergency, and reservoirs throughout the state have dropped to dangerously low levels.
Unless a miracle happens, there is simply not going to be enough water to go around for the entire agriculture industry. The following is an excerpt from an email from an industry insider that researcher Ray Gano recently shared on his website...
Harris farms has released a statement saying they will leave about 40,000 acres fallow this year because the FEDS have decided to only deliver 10% of the water allocation for 2014. Lettuce is predicted to reach around $5.00 a head (if you can find it). Understand the farmers in the Salinas valley are considering the same action. So much for salad this summer unless you grow it yourself.
The reason why the agriculture industry in California is so important is because it literally feeds the rest of the nation. I shared the following statistics yesterday, but they are so critical that they bear repeating. As you can see, without the fruits and vegetables that California grows, we would be in for a world of hurt...
The state produces 99 percent of the artichokes grown in the US, 44 percent of asparagus, a fifth of cabbage, two-thirds of carrots, half of bell peppers, 89 percent of cauliflower, 94 percent of broccoli, and 95 percent of celery. Leafy greens? California’s got the market cornered: 90 percent of the leaf lettuce we consume, along with and 83 percent of Romaine lettuce and 83 percent of fresh spinach, come from the big state on the left side of the map. Cali also cranks a third of total fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S.—and 95 percent of ones destined for cans and other processing purposes.
As for fruit, I get that 86 percent of lemons and a quarter of oranges come from there; its sunny climate makes it perfect for citrus, and lemons store relatively well. Ninety percent of avocados? Fine. But 84 percent of peaches, 88 percent of fresh strawberries, and 97 percent of fresh plums?
Come on. Surely the other 49 states can do better.
Are you starting to understand how much trouble we could be in if this drought does not end?
About now I can hear some people out there saying that they will just eat meat because they don't like vegetables anyway.
Well, unfortunately we are rapidly approaching a beef shortage as well.
On January 1st, the U.S. cattle herd hit a 61-year low of 89.3 million head of cattle.
The biggest reason for this is the 5 year drought that has absolutely crippled the cattle industry out west...
Back in the late fall 2013 there was a freak snowstorm that killed close to 300,000+ cattle. This is a major hit to the cattle market.
I know in Texas where they still have a 5 year drought they are dealing with, they are having to ship grass bails in from Colorado, Utah and other parts of the country just to feed the cattle. Ranchers are sending their female cattle to the slaughter houses becasue they can not afford to feed them anymore. It is the females that help re-stock the herd. SO if you are slaughtering your females, your herd does not grow. It is expected that the US will not see cattle herd growth returning until 2017, maybe even later.
This is a problem which is not going away any time soon.
According to the Washington Post, the U.S. cattle herd has gotten smaller for six years in a row, and the amount of beef produced is expected to drop to a 20 year low in 2014...
The U.S. cattle herd contracted for six straight years to the smallest since 1952, government data show. A record drought in 2011 destroyed pastures in Texas, the top producing state, followed the next year by a surge in feed-grain prices during the worst Midwest dry spell since the 1930s. Fewer cattle will mean production in the $85 billion beef industry drops to a 20- year low in 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
It would be hard to overstate how devastating this ongoing drought has been for many ranchers out west. For example, one 64-year-old rancher who lives in Texas says that his herd is 90 percent smaller than it was back in 2005 because of the drought...
Texas rancher Looney, who is 64 and has been in the cattle business his whole life, said his herd is still about 90 percent below its size from 2005 because of the prolonged dry weather. It will take years for the pastures to come back, even if there is normal rainfall, he said. About 44 percent of Texas was in still in drought in the week ended Jan. 7, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
And it isn't just the U.S. that is dealing with this kind of drought. The largest freshwater lake in China that was once about twice the size of London, England has almost entirely dried up because of the ongoing drought over there.
Meanwhile, global demand for food just continues to rise.
If this drought ends and the western half of the nation starts getting lots of rain, this could just be a temporary crisis.
However, the truth is that scientific research has shown that the 20th century was the wettest century in the western half of the country in 1000 years, and that we should expect things to return to "normal" at some point.
So is that happening now?
Over the past couple of years, I have warned that Dust Bowl conditions are starting to return to the western half of the United States. Just see this article, this article and this article.
Now the state of California is experiencing the worst drought that it has ever gone through and "apocalyptic" dust storms are being reported in Colorado and Nevada.
Just because things seem like they have always been a certain way does not mean that they will always stay that way.
Things out west are rapidly changing, and in the end it is going to affect the lives of every man, woman and child in the United States.
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Understood, just an real life eye opening example for me this past week.
WTF? Get some good Filet Mignon for $8.99/lb, but I'm clsoe to the source.
A flat iron steak is pretty tasty too, and much cheaper.
Beef still too expensive, but o.k. for Sunday.
October 2013, Texas. Bought a steer straight from the ranch grass-fed beef/non-GMO. Carried to small town processor. Butchered, cut to order, vaccum packed, flash frozen.
Porterhouse, roasts, club steaks, Top round (double tenderized), short ribs, sirlon steaks, soup bone, liver, brisket, chili meat, stew meat and countless pounds of 85/15 ground. Carted home in a freezer loaded in the back of my pickup, unloaded, plugged in.
Total cost, any and all cuts, 3.51 per lb. I love my 1.5" thick porter house steaks (approx 2.5 lbs each). cost $3.51 per lb or $8.77 each. yummmm, Awesome flavor. My wife and I shared a porterhouse last week, damn, thought I'd died and gone to Texas. hah hah turns out I was just home.
Total cost includes purchase, cost of butcher, transport to, and from, butcher to my storage site. The only thing not included, heee heee, cost to grill to medium rare.
Is there back up power for your freezer?
Good point. He needs some solar cells, and wind turbines to generate enough power to run his spread.
Mmmmmmmmmmm, God Bless Texas.
Anyone have that recipie for organic glazed iPad handy? I might need that one.
I have seen a number of reservoirs in California recently... scary to see them so low.
Damn liberal bastards in California keeping those reservoirs so low!
Its the Mexican conquest.
Hispanics predicted to become majority in California in 2014http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hispanics-predicted-to-become-majority-in-ca...
Famine is a great way to reduce populations.
Yeah because the gov't controls global rainfall patterns.
Duurr, climate change is a hoax. Gold bichizz?
Why yes, the climate does change. It was 40 and sunny last week and now it's 5 degrees and grey. Learn to adapt.
Monsanto to the rescue! Haven't they cloned corn that grows in the desert and cows that can bear -30F?
Hogwash
Food is cheap here in MEXICO
I just eat out every day from money I made in Bitcoin & 3D printer stocks. And I got a Twitter by the tail-wild ride:)
ps:
buying gold around x-mas is good for a few years now, GLD fine for now, Lots of coins on eBay no shortage:) also got a buy signal on copper, Australia, gold Mining etf's-go JNUG.
Got a VIX buy on SPY. It is early sometimes by a week.
Blow off top on health ETF's. Set a trailing stop loss & enjoy the ride.
So, buy gold?
What factor is food in all the hotspots? I'm losing count of how many there are.
Food is just a derivative of water, and so are we.
centralize derivatives !
Make a Fannie Mae of counterparty risk for me oh Barney please.
Robots don't eat organic
Snorg tee snorg tee snorg tee snorg tee snorg tee.
I got one of the old ones back but not the one wearing undies.
I'm finding ways to enjoy pork and chicken and more vegetables; damn beef is too expensive.
Ha, nothing new here. Been growing organic for years on own water.
Good luck you fools that were taken in by the Smart Growth BULLSHIT!
Is this shit for real? Is this supposed to be taken seriously?
Fuck California.......seriously, fuck California. From wikiedia....granted, it's from widipedia:
A wide variety of commodity crops, fruits, and vegetables are grown in Michigan, making it second only to California among U.S. states in the diversity of its agriculture.[99] The state has 55,000 farms utilizing 10,000,000 acres (40,000 km2) of land which sold $6.6 billion worth of products in 2008.[100] The most valuable agricultural product is milk. Leading crops include corn, soybeans, flowers, wheat, sugar beets and potatoes. Livestock in the state included 1 million cattle, 1 million hogs, 78,000 sheep and over 3 million chickens. Livestock products accounted for 38% of the value of agricultural products while crops accounted for the majority.
Michigan is a leading grower of fruit in the U.S., including blueberries, cherries, apples, grapes, and peaches.[26][101] Plums, pears, and strawberries are also grown. These fruits are mainly grown in West Michigan due to the moderating effect of Lake Michigan on the climate. There is also significant fruit production, especially cherries, but also grapes, apples, and other fruits, in Northwest Michigan along Lake Michigan. Michigan produces wines, beers and a multitude of processed food products. Kellogg's cereal is based in Battle Creek, Michigan and processes many locally grown foods. Thornapple Valley, Ball Park Franks, Koegel Meat Company, and Hebrew National sausage companies are all based in Michigan.
Michigan is home to very fertile land in the Flint/Tri-Cities and "Thumb" areas. Products grown there include corn, sugar beets, navy beans, and soy beans. Sugar beet harvesting usually begins the first of October. It takes the sugar factories about five months to process the 3.7 million tons of sugarbeets into 970 million pounds of pure, white sugar.[102] Michigan's largest sugar refiner, Michigan Sugar Company[103] is the largest east of the Mississippi River and the fourth largest in the nation. Michigan Sugar brand names are Pioneer Sugar and the newly incorporated Big Chief Sugar. Potatoes are grown in Northern Michigan, and corn is dominant in Central Michigan. Alfalfa, cucumbers, and asparagus are also grown.
Dude stfu! People think Michigan is Detroit and they don't come here. It's starting to get nice and we don't want a bunch of libs from the west screwing it up. SHHHHH
You think you have problems now? Wait till you find out that all your aquifers are polluted with fracking and agrochemicals (and they are drying up anyway).
But continue fracking and continue believing that CC is not happening.
My parents live on 2/3 of an acre in a development in small town Connecticut. If they got off their butts they could easily grow nearly all the produce they could eat (and it would do them good). So could their neighbors. That's not even counting people who own real amounts of land there. Connecticut was 80 percent fields when it was an agricultural area; now it is 80 percent wooded. Huge swathes of the town could become farms again; the old farmhouses are going for cheap right now. There is LOADS of water available; what they call a "drought" is a joke. If they re-cleared more areas for farming they wouldn't have so many deer ticks spreading Lyme disease!!!
I'm sure much of the U.S. is like that or much better (the post above re Michigan is spot on) Connecticut is especially crummy for many types of farming due to all the glacial rocks, but with brains and information and some toil you can do it. Good grief Maine is nearly empty of humans and it rains plenty. If you use hoop houses you can garden three seasons all over the place (maybe not upstate NY!!!).
So, the easiest, cheapest food may not be so cheap and easy. In the 70s we had a garden because of food price inflation. Then food got cheap and no-one bothered. Well, maybe people will bother again. Maybe the next "Egg and I" is about to be written; all those smallish egg farmers in the years after WWII started up and made a good living because of high food costs.
Unfortunately I think the "solution" is going to be the importation of toxic waste food from China. People will have the option to grow their own, or buy toxic imports for cheap, and most of them will go for the cheap crap.
While I appreciate your sentiment, Kareninca, I would suggest that there is a significant difference between our current citizenry and those who lived during the 1930's. It's simple, you say, plant a garden. Agreed. Plant a garden. A "victory garden" if you will. I know how to grow a garden (we have 10 acres), and I had a father who was a product of the Depression, so you damn well know he knew how to grow a garden. But do you seriously think Generation X is going to get their fucking hands dirty and actually work the soil and get down on their hands and knees and plant seeds and pull weeds? These lazy-ass, entitled, worthless pieces of shit are going to grow their own food?
And even if they would/could ... if it wre only that simple!
Do you know how many years I had to plant, toil, fail, plant, toil, fail, (repeat process here) before I finally became a farmer? Years! And as the years go by, and my knowledge and experience grows, I realize every year we plant it's still a crap shoot. Bad weather, too much rain, too much heat, too much pestilence, too much wind, whatever the hazard, it's a blessing to be able to produce any kind of crop at all! And on top of that we have to deal with government agencies hell bent on making life as difficult for us as possible?
Yeah. Grow a garden. It's EASY.
I'll invest in companies who make body bags. The return will be greater. Not to mention faster.
We had a big garden at our cottage in Quebec. I still remember the taste of a fresh tomato, right off the vine, with just a sprinkle of salt.
But I tried growing one in the back-foot (it's not really a 'yard') of the house last year. Everything was stolen by the g*d-d*mn squirrels and raccoons!!
And it is frustrating, but as Jefferson said "I am an old man, but a young gardener".
most of them will go for the cheap crap.
And they will get cancer.
and their babies will all look tike these:
https://alhittin.wordpress.com/tag/iraq-war/
https://www.google.com/search?q=iraq+deformed+babies+uranium&espv=210&es...
burn baby burn!
This is a test of the tomato growers emergency sauce circuit.
Organic cucumbers are in short supply? Strap into that 4x4 wankmobile tightly, lads - it's going to be a bumpy ride to the ciabatta barricades.
"TOTUS, the drought is getting worse!"
"Great! Have the EPA outlaw private gardens. Immediately!"
Fire up the pressure cooker and can your beef stew and chili while you still have time.
It may just be worth many times it's weight in silver or ammo when the shit hits the rotary air mover.
i think it all bull shit, they have to maintain the propaganda to cover up the inflation. The bees are dying, the cattle are fewer, the rain is a memory, the crops are bad, but don't look at the bankster prinitng trillions.
When all the trees have been cut down, when all the animals have been hunted, when all the waters are polluted, when all the air is unsafe to breathe, only then will you discover you cannot eat money.
Cree Prophecy
http://www.californiaindianeducation.org/inspire/traditional/
You better get your canning equipment and learn to use itNOW
So, history rhymes. The 1930s all over again. Both weather and economics have cycles of similar length.
History rhymes, yes. There are many cycles with different periods. The 1930's to now is a 90 year cycle. Maybe we are seeing a much longer cycle. Like from the 700 and 800 AD to now. In those years the Chinese carried out an organized extermination of 200 million Christians, or white people.
You have to find a member of the Eastern Christian Church to tell you the history. It is not in books any more. My eighth grade history book had two lines about the pogroms in China. Back then did not know what a pogrom was.
For fuck sakes, this is due to the PDO and a persistent La Nina pattern. Cali population has doubled since 1977 and little has been done to expand water storage thanks to the enviro-nuts.
What a poorly researched load.
So it was the enviro-nuts that used all the water?
More like the rate of water use was not sustainable...
I grew up working in Michigan orchards and on dairy farms while in high school summers. Peaches, plums, apples, pears, grapes, raspberries, sweet corn, celery, onions, carrots pick a crop, it most surely grows in Michigan. When I first tasted avocadoe and artichoke I wasn't all that impressed. Water and cattle and pasture do go together. Federal land is owned by all of us. I think the Feds own over 85% of Neveda. When the Feds decide you can't run a snowmobile or 4 wheeler or hunt or fish or trap on Federal land who gets to vote on that? If we all own the wild game of the nation how can the Feds decide we can't hunt in a specific area? The free market stops at the farm gate by the way. Just look into why some major candy makers have moved out of USA. I think there is a law that US candy makers buy domestic priced sugar and not world sugar. Price per lb difference is many cents per pound. The government can regulate all it wants and price many products out of reach but they don't have the ability to regulate rain or bees. They can tax both they can't make either. Rain makes corn, corn makes whiskey but it also feeds livestock. No rain, no feed = expensive beef, chicken and pork. No rain=no crops unless you irrigate. If you irrigate that water comes from somehere and in the Seirras that water comes from snow melt. I am glad for every lb of venison in my freezer I need not buy beef or chicken or pork. If I figured out time invested in hunting/shooting practice, processing etc the venison probably costs a lot more but it sure tastes good.
What is ironic is 30,000 deer are killed in Michigan each year - by cars. That's in addition to the 500,000 or so taken legally by hunters each year. at 70 lbs of edible meat per deer, that's 2.1 million pounds festering by the road. Whatever happened to those "Eat roadkill" signs?
It breaks down it everybody lives off venison.
As far as beef goes, the steers are much larger now so the amount of beef is actually greater despite a smaller herd:
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/heavier-carcasses-minimize-effect-low-cattl...
Per usual, things are always more complex than they first seem...
True. Thank God (and our University Agricultural Exetnsion programs) for improved cattle genetics! Carcass weights are (guessing) a good 40-45% larger now than they were in the early 50's. If not for that we'd all be eating wild rabbit and dandelions right now.
If y'all wanna have some fun, Google "Beefmaster Bulls" and see the size of some of these monsters. They can get to be the size of an old VW Van. Amazingly huge. If we can eat them, surely Barry Bonds can make the Hall of Fame.
Not to worry bitchez, cattle will soon be a thing of the past any way. Halal meat will soon take over. Better start raising Boer goats. Praise be to Allah!
No. 1 killer of all people.
TIME.
No. 2
Muslims. 270 million
No. 3.
Chinese. 200 Million
Um, if mexican cucumbers are so hard to get, how come the "English" variety, product of Mexico, is on sale in Toronto right now for $0.97 CDN (< $.90 US)? I paid $1.50 for these a few weeks ago. Same thing with bell peppers, lettuce, etc. - if it's not Mexico, they're coming from Chile and they're still inexpensive.
So long as Californians living in a f***ing desert think it's more important to have green lawns and golf courses than it is grow and eat food, f*** them.
Frank, I agree it is a shame the roadkill on deer and other critters. I no longer live in Michigan but a NW suburb of Chicago due to job transfer. A nearby suburb hired law enforcement "snipers" to kill 70 deer that were over running the homeowners and stripping all gardens and ornamental plants and flowers. Instead of raffling/selling permits for local archery hunters to take the deer they paid a huge amount per deer killed to take them at night with suppressed 223 rounds. The meat went to local food banks. A local farmer charges 2k a season for four of us to bowhunt his land. That is expensive venison if you are lucky enough to harvest one. A number of states now allow the person killing the deer with a car to keep it legally. That didn't used to be the case so I guess that is progress in the right direction. I know the body shops get a lot of business but the insurance companies aren't happy about the car deer claims.
To avoid hitting a deer, sound horn continuously. The large ears of deer magnify the sound. A steady horn gives them a direction to run. This always works.
hmm.
Dunno.
Farmers are being told it may be time to sell forward & to expect record crop yields in the next 2 years... hmm.
I'm on the fence on this one but my hedge: as much canned food & anything else not needing refrigeration. Can't always count on fiat inflationary price indication from gold, silver, copper, but for medicine & food: oh hell yes.
And do the canning yourself. Costs less than 1/2 food purchased in cans and is far better quality. And it always allows you to buy when the supply/demand curve is in your favor (e.g. fruits and vegitables at harvest time).
I will when I get the chance. For now no access to the empty cans or affordable fresh harvest to put into them. It's on the to-do list.