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Is Food Inflation Coming Back?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Paul Mylchreest of Monument Securities

Coffee was up another 12% yesterday! After introducing myself to ADM’s Sugar trading team, I thought I’d better introduce myself to our Coffee team pronto, who were equally friendly I have to say. Feedback  - besides the dry weather in Brazil, there are also unsubstantiated rumours of a trading house getting in to trouble – which might not be surprising given the scale of the recent move. Here is the Coffee chart since the beginning of 2013.

 

Not sure if ADM trades Lean Hogs (must be out of Chicago if we do), but did you see them fly (!) during the last couple of days? Terrible.

 

We highlighted the CRB/BLS Spot Foodstuffs Index last week. It’s continuing to rise but still remains lower year-on-year at this point.

The question is whether this is the start of a broadly-based period of food price inflation?

So what about the Food Retailing stocks?

I was watching the S&P 500 Food & Staples Retailing sector yesterday. It rose 1.3% versus a 0.7% fall in the S&P 500.

After all their travails from intense competition and over-investment, maybe some food price inflation is just what the UK Food Retailers need...if they can pass it on in the current environment!

If we look back to a more “normal” period for these stocks, e.g. from 1996-2007, the Food Retailers did do well during periods of rapidly escalating food prices – although often with a lag.

 

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Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:26 | 4460395 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You mean it left?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:31 | 4460424 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

It's all because the air inside the packages keeps getting more expensive...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:37 | 4460454 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Gas stations( cant call them service stations, anymore) now charge a $1.00 for air!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:39 | 4460473 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

to breathe?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:51 | 4460514 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

add WTI April futures at 102 to the inflation party... pretty early for the summer ramp job where JPM and MS trade algos back and forth with each other to walk up prices and park fully loaded ULCC's out at sea to cut supply

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:19 | 4460640 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

I would suggest getting free bitcoins from http://freebitco.in/?r=25727

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:30 | 4460927 The Vineyard
The Vineyard's picture

Deflation, deflation, deflation.  Learn it, live it, love it.  There's not re-inflating this bubble.  Bitches.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:24 | 4461393 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Fuck you fonestar

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:18 | 4460905 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I would strongly recommend  removing the tinfoil hat...

JPM and GS are not so stupid to store oil in expensive day-rate tankers when the futures curve is in backwardation....

This would be like a leech trying to attach to a saltblock...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:51 | 4460526 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

Thanks to Chained CPI everything is right with the world.

Move along.....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:53 | 4460736 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Coming soon, for sure.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:27 | 4461142 hobopants
hobopants's picture

What food inflation? There were a bunch of Hotpockets on sale today, oh wait...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:43 | 4460492 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Where do you live ? They been charging for air in Canada for 10 years.

In a few years time, the windshield sqeegies will be gone. Hell, you will have to pay to park at the pump to fill up.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:48 | 4460723 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

*convenience fee.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:43 | 4460493 knukles
knukles's picture

Hah ha ha ha ha

Just you wait.
The PTB out here in CA and DC who mandate where our water goes, have duly decided amidst the drought that the Central Valley, et al, inclusive everywhere, should be cut back for cattle, crops of every and all sorts, so the fucking three toed snail darter in the Sacramento water ways and etc., etc., etc., have enough water to keep multiplying.

Like they fucking would have under regular drought conditions, my ass without help.
Fuck me!
Under drought conditions before man intervened, they survived in the past, this shit about man running the ecosphere...

Well, never mind.
Your lettuce is gonna cost more than gasoline.
See, we grow most of the green shit that graces your tables.

Eat a snail darter or a politician for breakfast 'cause that's alls gonna be left.....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:10 | 4460605 Doctor Who
Doctor Who's picture

I read this week that Utah is getting ready to fight the federal government about water access to the Colorado river.  The government is trying to overturn the western states agreement on the allocation agreed to where the water goes.  The government, on behalf of California, wants to control it to decide which state needs it most.  The western states that aren't California are screwed if this happens.   The west doesn't have enough water to support its new population let alone worrying about crops.  The farmers are all selling to subdivisions because of the water problem.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:33 | 4460934 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Google "Glen Canyon cavitation event" some time for a good read. it took two decades to actually fill the "reservoir" because the geology is sandstone which "soaked up all that liquidity" almost as well as Hank Paulson and TARP.

The reservoir is down but don't let that huge size fool you...it is in fact FAR larger.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:58 | 4461168 laomei
laomei's picture

Not exactly, no. I mean, I give you bonus points for citing the cavitation event, wherein flooding resulted in overpressure which just ate the fuck out of the tunnels (confined space), but that's it.  Once that reservoir is done it's done.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:31 | 4461247 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I heard that God was going to refill it so the worthy ones left after the depopulation could get a fair shake.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:05 | 4461494 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unfortunately for you, yes, it took two decades to fill, but has gone from full pool to less than half in less than five years.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:09 | 4461223 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

"The farmers are all selling to subdivisions because of the water problem."

Yes well more homes and the grubby creatures who inhabit them seems to be a viable solution to a water problem.

Build some more Dams and huge pipelines already..... The Hover Dam was so last century and you have been patting yourself on the back ever since.

Where is your 50 year plan,.. No ... where is your 25year plan.... No... Ok I really want to see a ten year plan or your probably not getting what you pay taxes toward.

Politicians = Media whores.  Where are the real Men, engineers, Surveyors, Draftsmen, tunnel boring experts and Dam(n) Builders.

How many Trillion to Banks - The people got Zip for it.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:32 | 4460683 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Yea, I hear you Knuckles.

 

Be lucky to find a Tomatoe come July unless you find it in your own backyard.

Ive been on top of my dog house screaming at everyone, they just throw rocks at me.

Get a garden plan, NOW folks

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:45 | 4460716 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

4 basic food groups [in Amerika]

~~~

DAIRY GROUP ~ Milk Duds

FRUIT GROUP ~ Sweet Tarts

VEGETABLE GROUP ~ Corn Nuts

MEAT GROUP ~ Hotpockets

 

& No wheezing the ju-juice!

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:52 | 4460731 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Thanks for the reminder. I need to get some seeds and get raised beds ready.

www.rareseeds.com

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:59 | 4460751 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Mine are waking up with new shoots. Chickens started to give eggs again after molting. Best eggs ever.

Growing greens and herbs. Hot pockets are for fools.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:11 | 4460774 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I've got some hardneck garlic starting to peak through the soil.  I'm going to try to get it to go to true seed, which can be a daunting task the first year.  It's been warm here though, and I'm starting to worry that my fruit trees are going to bloom early then get hit by a late frost again.  It'll be interesting to see if the blackberry seeds that I put in the ground sprout.  I love me some blackberries. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:18 | 4461376 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

I've got some hardneck garlic starting to peak through the soil.

My garlic is still under a blanket of snow, but the temperature hit 50oF yesterday and it rained overnight. I may be able to get a glimpse of it tomorrow before the snow covers it again. It usually waits until March to appear, but I've seen it as early as January after a mild December.

Garlic has been the easiest thing for me to grow. The raised bed keeps the soil uncompacted and well drained, and it's in a spot that gets full sun all day. All I've had to do is plant it in the fall, cover it with straw, and keep it weeded. The only pest I've had problems with is squirrels digging and planting acorns, but a little chicken wire will thwart them.

I'm going to try to get it to go to true seed, which can be a daunting task the first year.

That can be a daunting task, period. While hardneck varieties will produce bulbils at the top of the stalk, only a few of those varieties will produce true seed. I didn't know that until reading Ted Meredith's The Complete Book of Garlic. I started growing my own several years ago after reading Ron Engeland's Growing Great Garlic, which is indeed a great guide. The Meredith book is more of a garlic encyclopedia. I highly recommend either book.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:10 | 4461131 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Free range eggs nothing like them for taste. We get ours for free; a bit of barter.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 12:02 | 4461992 tradebot
tradebot's picture

Free range dogs keep eating our free range chickens...I'm sure they think they taste good too

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:46 | 4460840 Doctor Who
Doctor Who's picture

I don't remember who posted this a few months back, but I'm trying it this year.  If you save your own seeds it could be awesome to suit the food to your own climate.  I have been saving hybrid seeds from food to cross pollinate with my old heirlooms.  However, it is all minus the GMO.

 

http://garden.lofthouse.com/adaptivar-landrace.phtml

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:58 | 4460845 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That would be me, and that's what I'm doing as well.  By the end of this season, I'll have more seed than I know what to do with.  I'll have to convince my neighbors to start using my seeds to get a bigger population with which to breed localized crops.

 

Just remember to check for minimum population sizes to prevent inbreeding depression, and remember that the number of individual plants that you need to save seed from varies from species to species.  It doesn't matter with beans, but, depending on who you talk to, it is anywhere from 100 to 400 plants for corn. 

 

EDIT:  Watch out for some of the hybrid varieties.  Some hybrids include male cytoplasmic sterility, and that trait is passed on through the mother.  Unless you are talking about something like garlic where it doesn't produce true seed because it has been cloned for centuries, male cytoplasmic sterility is not reversible.  Joseph Lofthouse's website has a page or two on the subject, including which species this has affected. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:58 | 4460867 Doctor Who
Doctor Who's picture

I have stuck to heirloom for years, but the yields for my area aren't as good as they should be.  Soil building has been my focus for the last couple of years.  I'm excited to try this cross pollination.  I don't do well with corn usually.  I haven't tasted my corn yet, but I've been growing a blue corn that was extinct for a long time.  They found it in a pueblo in the four corners area and it sprouted.  I bought it to keep it alive, but don't have a mill to try the flour.  It did awesome with little water and little care. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:06 | 4460881 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

You can eat it as sweet corn and it's not bad, at least the blue corn that I have grown is decent in the milk stage.  Otherwise, mix the dried corn and wood ash in a big pot and simmer it for 3-5 hours until the hulls are coming off of the corn.  You want at least as much ash (volume) as corn.  Then rinse the shit out of it.  You can grind that by hand while it is still soft, probably with a mortar and pestle (I do have a mill, so I'm just guessing,) you can dry it, you can eat the hominy straight, or you can make posole with it.  Homegrown blue corn hominy >>>>>>>> the store bought shit.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:19 | 4460901 Doctor Who
Doctor Who's picture

Thanks for the help.  I'm also growing the red floriani from italy.  A dent corn.  Would you cross these?  Like I said, I haven't eaten the corn.  The blue one is for flour.  Are these varieties interchangeable from  flour, dent, and sweet?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:34 | 4460926 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

It depends on how much you like sweet corn over flour corn.  Dents can be eaten as a sweet corn, but they'll be tougher and less sweet.  I just googled it, and the websites are claiming it's flint, which should be even tougher, though I've never tried eating flint corn on the cob. Flints are good for hominy and flour.  If it were me, I'd cross it, but I don't eat a lot of corn on the cob anyway.

 

You might also want to look for Painted Mountain corn.  The only thing that is really sensitive to is high heat.  If you don't get over about 100f, it should be fine.  It'd be a no go in Tuscon, but if you are in Colorado or Utah or some similar place, it should be pretty good. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:37 | 4460938 Doctor Who
Doctor Who's picture

Thanks.  I used the wrong word.  Good info.  If you want to swap seeds let me know.  I have several days over the 100F mark all summer.  New seeds to add would be great. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 02:11 | 4460997 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

Since store bought Hot Pockets are in short supply, I decide to plant my own Hot Pockets. 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:45 | 4461206 RSloane
RSloane's picture

The drought is expected to last several decades not just in the short term. You're right Knukles, the food chain and its properties are going to inflate moreso than it is now. By the time that the politicians figure out that the snail darter is actually not more important than feeding the nation it will be too late. 'Food fight' will take on a whole new meaning.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:39 | 4461254 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Similar situation with Steelhead Trout. Same as every other rainbow trout except that it lives in the ocean, then spawns up a river. The rivers are dry....as if that's never happened before.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:05 | 4461355 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

We need this knuckles.  We need something to "catalyze" the great "RESET".  I say reset because poor americans shudder when I say "COLLAPSE".  But collapse it will be.   The more costs we can increase on the needs side of the home budget the less they can afford for new chevy pickup 4x4s, mall shopping and best buys.  This will get the ball rolling.   Once the "investors" get out of "markets" we will see the FED start buying outright.   Then we know the end game is at hand.    $25 chicken souvlakis will taste delicious!!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:50 | 4460521 10mm
10mm's picture

I remember the day DAY gas stations starting charging for Air. Said to self(SELF) it's really fuckin over.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:41 | 4461683 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

Which only validates inflation in insurance, wages, electricity, maintenance and parts.

I bought a alternator,battery, and belt for my 95 merc yesterday. Alt= $119, bat=$138 belt=$29. Damnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn.

Used to get them all for about $50.

Did it myself in 1.5 hours after my bring your parts mech said $200 for labor. I know he's gotta eat too, but Damnnnnnnnnn.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:39 | 4460470 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

4 dollar a gallon milk for six years running

and inflation is back

so.....buy almond milk at 9.50 a half gallon instead?

like the ground beef for steak substitution thingy?

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:44 | 4460496 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

The CPI is calculated using prices for a fixed basket of goods and services through time. While the basket is periodically revised to reflect changing consumer expenditures, some items being priced in the sample come and go from the marketplace, making collection of these prices from month to month difficult. When an item is no longer available in the marketplace, a similar replacement item is selected. Often there are no similar items from which to choose, and as a result, a less comparable item is selected, potentially introducing quality change and an associated price differential into the index. The hedonic quality adjustment method removes any price differential attributed to a change in quality by adding or subtracting the estimated value of that change from the price of the old item.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:48 | 4460507 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

and when there was no crawdad, we ate sand

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=segrVSCYbhc

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:49 | 4460512 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

hedonistic adjustment bitchez

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:13 | 4461133 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Substitution and geometric mean....... the bastards

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:36 | 4461656 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

I guess it's good, to know how they lie.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:24 | 4460661 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

My wife is lactating. She feeds both her and our newborn. Get bitchez pregnant.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:31 | 4461246 kareninca
kareninca's picture

You know, JohnQpublic, you can make nut or soy or rice milk with a blender.  It is very cheap.  Not as professional tasting as store bought, and you have to shake it before serving, but it is perfectly fine.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:47 | 4460505 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

It's all because the air inside the packages keeps getting more expensive...

And you're getting so much MORE air in packages these days.....  


Cereal boxes are half full and even bars of soap have big scoops taken out of them.  Anyone that thinks food prices haven't been going up (and going up at a rapid rate) is delusional.  Domino sugar now comes in 4 lb bags - compared to the 5 lb bags I've known all my life.  WTF?

I choked at the cost of a rib roast the other day - it was more than I'd have spent on ALL my groceries for a week when I was younger.   Hell, even BACON is over $7 a pound - up from less than $4 not too long ago (this in the pricey burbs of NYC)

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:20 | 4460644 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

Was sitting in the steam room at the gym the other night. A middle aged Vietnamese gentlemen who was obviously a somewhat recent immigrant was carrying on a conversation with another man. It went like this:

American: "So, what are you doing for Valentines? Going out to eat?"

Vietnamese: "Shit no. Everyting too fucking spensive. Restrant food is shit on busy night. Cook say fuck it. No care if food good or not. Him too busy. Say fuck food. Service sucks. I tell wife I get food and cook for you. We stay home. Save money. Food better. 

Wife go to fast food place yesterday. Hamburger suck. Meat is paper thin. Can hardly find meat. I say this shit no good. Fast burger sucks."

-----

Pretty bad when a Vietnamese immigrant thinks things are turning to shit.

True story.  

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:18 | 4460795 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

spent some time in vietnam twenty years ago on a business trip.  i can still taste the memorable food

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:06 | 4461499 zjxn06
zjxn06's picture

"air inside the packages"

Granola bars. I rest my case.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:33 | 4460437 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Beer is expensive, but I can't stop from buying it.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:55 | 4460542 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Learn to brew your own.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:10 | 4460607 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I brew beer, but I still have never been able to match my appetite.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:39 | 4460700 weburke
weburke's picture

are you aware of what is in beer now?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:34 | 4460820 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Barley?  Malt?  Hops??  Yeast???

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 04:03 | 4461095 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Malt IS partially germinated barley -- you knew this, right?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:40 | 4460832 Big Brother
Big Brother's picture

If you don't make it yourself, at least support your local brewer.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 04:04 | 4461096 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Beer is a lot more complicated than brewing mead.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:27 | 4460400 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

Inflation? Hot pockets are cheaper than they've ever been!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:39 | 4460471 farmerjohn2112
farmerjohn2112's picture

+2 for the current events reference

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:44 | 4460497 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it is more than a little terrifying that we use our food (corn) as a fuel source. that normally is used to feed the people (cows, chickens, hogs)...not "fuel" conspicuous consumption.

i have done some research on "why the West stopped starving to death" in the 1400's. (the potato sure didn't hurt...although obviously we didn't figure out "famine" until the late 1800's.)

i think a big deal is that the air we breath is mostly composed of nitrogen...so as temperatures drop this in fact "locks in nutrition" in the soil....which in theory can make the land extremely fertile.

actual production remains to be seen of course and of course all the regulators agree that wild speculations in the market are really bad...so at least we've got that end covered.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:41 | 4460946 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

that was a joke about the regulators btw.

if I didn't know any better I'd say the only thing learned from 2008 is "pay me instead of them" this go around.

I still think the only thing on DC's mind is "Plan Oest only Bigger."

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:27 | 4460402 brewing
brewing's picture

Never left...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:28 | 4460404 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Just wait until the California droughts flow-through on produce prices.

And how about when natural gas price increases flow through to fertilizer prices.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:53 | 4460534 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The aquifers under the midwest are dropping fast as well.  

The US pushes grain exports (one of the few things still 'made' in the US) while forgetting that with each bushel of wheat you're exporting US WATER, OIL (that went to run the tractors and combines and other farm equipment) and Natural Gas (for fertilizer and drying wet crops) - not to mention the 'fertility' of US soils that is 'consumed' in producing crops (actual soilis also disappearing - some old churchyards in Iowa are 10 feet higher than surrounding farm fields whose soil keeps blowing away).  Kind of stupid to subsidize the export and depletion of US assets if you ask me.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:55 | 4460543 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

i've seen that and assumed they had built them up in the air on purpose

learn something new every day

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:29 | 4460411 BlueCollaredOne
BlueCollaredOne's picture

Can't wait to see what commiefornias drought will do to these charts.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:27 | 4461611 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

It's not only the drought. The water authority previously kept 5 normal usage years of waterstorage to help during droughts. The tree huggers sued for a bait fish called a smelt that was supposedly getting thirsty and the Moonbeams in Kalifas turned off the water to the storage.  Turned off the water to the central valley farms and diverted the fresh water into rivers and streams where the fish lives. The rivers and streams etc flow to the ocean. So, we've got that going for us also.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:31 | 4460417 10mm
10mm's picture

Tommorow, im a coffee buying prepper Mo Fu. It go's next to my 7.62X39's and spam.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:42 | 4460487 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

You should go with a Cheyenne Tactical M-200 Intervention in .408 & Dinty Moore...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:50 | 4460515 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Just be sure you replace the firing pin with a shorter one when you place it in storage. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:54 | 4460531 HyBrasilian
HyBrasilian's picture

lol ~ [I can do this all day]

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:53 | 4460535 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

explain please

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:57 | 4460546 HyBrasilian
Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:56 | 4460746 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

thank you

seen the movie so i got the firing pin thing too

sweet

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:34 | 4460442 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Might be time to think about getting rid of food entirely:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_%28food_substitute%29

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:41 | 4460485 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

fixing obesity one drought at a time

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:51 | 4460523 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Part of the problem is that the crap we're growing now has fewer nutrients in it, but roughly the same number of calories.  You have to eat more calories just to meet basic nutritional needs. 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:56 | 4460544 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

I thought we were being fattened up for our future alien overlords.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 04:15 | 4461105 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

It's a 'virtuous circle'.....you give the meat puppets the EBT so they don't have to work.   Then they convert the EBT into fat so they can also collect disability.

 

Vote Assured

 

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:35 | 4460445 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Whats the problem? Just Fast like I do...3x a day..

Between breakfast and lunch,
Lunch and dinner,
Dinner and breakfast...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:35 | 4460446 Ms.B.Haven
Ms.B.Haven's picture

Coming from the Chief Grocery Getter I can say that food inflation never left.  Regular bacon, not Center Cut, finally breached $5 pound in my "sale" flyer this week for a 1 pound package.  Green Giant frozen veggies that have been running (in the past year or two) $1 a box are now $1.33.  I could name a dozen other things that have significantly increased.  Fingers crossed our little garden continues to produce.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:03 | 4460571 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Burger platters from local greasy spoon finally breached $10 in nyc.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:37 | 4460455 Cacete de Ouro
Cacete de Ouro's picture

So what happened to the Thunder Road gold manipulation reports?

Get taken over by Archer Daniels and next day start writing about coffee and sugar?

Well, it least it pays the bills....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:41 | 4460484 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you think that maybe more expensive oil is slowly being manifested....

Not that these various droughts could possibly have an impact....

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:46 | 4460503 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Droughts come and go. There have always been droughts. You sound like the fed... 

 

Cold weather... yeah its fucking Febuary. Is Febuary peak growing season in Cali or something ? Honestly don't know...

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:51 | 4460525 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Oil sure is staying expensive.  Another new normal.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 22:55 | 4460540 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Not that the German Military report mentioned Peak oil around 2010 or something like that.

What year is this again??

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:27 | 4460923 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Understand that it is a process not an event...

We are on a bumpy plateau and have been for about 8 years...

The game ends in two ways assuming no major wars:

A) If the cost of a barrel of new marginal supply required to replace the ~4-5% annual global decline rate exceeds the price which the economy can afford, production falls and the 4 Horsemen Saddle up...

B) If new marginal sources cannot be brought on fast enough to offset declines, game over.. Note that flow rate not reserves matter...

All the while the amount of oil available on the open market (i.e. exported) is slowly but surely shrinking.... Google Export Land Model...

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:17 | 4461538 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

IMO, it's not peak oil or normal inflation.

It's peak manipulation, speculation, obamanation, medacitation, and corruptanation that has seriously effected my mobilization and mastication.

I coulda been a rapper (tion)!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:03 | 4460575 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I'll eat a cheap can of beans when the food runs out. If I have to. Time to stock up on the beans and rice.

I don't eat meat but I have lots of protein powder to keep me jogging.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:14 | 4461227 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Beans are not cheap anymore!!!!!!!!!  A pound bag of regular dried beans at Safeway is now $2!!!!!!!!!

Yes, they are cheaper than the alternatives.  But they are not cheap.  Take it from someone who was vegan for 17 years, and for the past couple of years vegetarian.  Lots of bean price points.

It is scary how expensive beans have become.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:37 | 4461253 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Just like the Fed, always wrong, but never in doubt

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:13 | 4461520 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

There ain't no cheap beans, now, or when the food runs out.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:05 | 4460583 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Drought ,my ass.  Its the fucking Fed

It's fucking Bernanke

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:06 | 4460588 wcvarones
Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:59 | 4460750 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Bachelor Chow

Now with flavor!

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:19 | 4460634 orez65
orez65's picture

We don't have to worry about food inflation, it is not included in the CPI!!!!

Let them eat iPads!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:22 | 4461137 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Ever considered food inflation is keeping the CPI low, you know deflation in shit you don't need.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:22 | 4460651 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Nexrad Weather Control: Tornado Creation 201A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVX8f58IxY0 (40:20)

Calgary Flood 2013: Geoengineered Disaster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwqlYfdiqxI (13:55)

Nexrad Weather Control: Creating Cloud Systems 101
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dslvUyZaSps (26:09)

Nexrad Weather Control - NOAA Aerosols Report Justifying Chemtrailing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJsfUZatymg (10:56)

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:28 | 4460671 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

 

ADM does trade the hogs.

Thu, 02/20/2014 - 23:54 | 4460742 The Final Straw
The Final Straw's picture

Stack yer spuds. PMs = Precious Meals.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:17 | 4460789 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

You know they're lying when they have a market for lean hogs.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:34 | 4461194 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> lean hogs.

Jumbo shrimp, lean hogs, why not?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:54 | 4461738 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

I had a jumbo shrimp in the Phillipines a long time ago. They called it a prawn. When they put the plate down in front of my 2 night stand, I almost pulled out my knife for protection it was so big. Weighed over a pound.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:52 | 4461725 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

I know this will break ur heart, but lean hogs is the word the banksters use for BACON.

May they forever rot in hell.

Yoder canned bacon ain't so bad but has doubled in price, per case.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 00:17 | 4460790 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I would like to projectile vomit all that expensive fresh food on Greenspam, the Bernank, and Old Yellen

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:17 | 4460904 Vooter
Vooter's picture

When did food inflation go away?

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:46 | 4460954 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

1932.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 01:47 | 4460955 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and '33 if I'm not mistaken.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 02:04 | 4460982 Irene
Irene's picture

People will get sticker shock starting around Sept. with the new crop - or perhaps I should say "without the new crop."  Family's been in the food biz for 50+ years.  I've watched international food prices a long time.  Drought?  Staples can more than quadruple, and then they almost never come back down to where they were. Almonds, walnuts, dairy products, meat, produce - it's all going up.  Many price changes will be practically overnight.  One day you're buying old crop, and then the new crop doesn't come in and dat's dat.  All just in time for 2014 elections.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:37 | 4461196 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> All just in time for 2014 elections.

Oh good, then it's a short term problem?  If we switch to the red team (or is it switch to the blue team? I always get the two mixed up) they'll fix everything.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 13:05 | 4462241 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

everyone knows only one party can spontaneously generate groundwater 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 05:13 | 4461134 sceptical_economist
sceptical_economist's picture

Product shrinkage is the real hidden food price inflator. It's not tracked by consumers and national accounts dont recognise the impact properly if at all.
This means foods contribution as a real component of total inflation is skewed to the downside. Useful to those interested in keeping a tight hold on monetary policy settings at zero rates. Not so good for those relying on inflation indexed wage rises.
But you kinda new that already.
Pass the crisps. I feel like a handful of salty air.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:18 | 4461182 -NaN-
-NaN-'s picture

"Let them eat high fructose corn syrup"

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 06:25 | 4461189 laomei
laomei's picture

Look on the bright side, Americans at this point are basically mobile food banks.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:10 | 4461224 BeansMcGreens
BeansMcGreens's picture

I just read yesterday an AP article on Yahoo the title of which was "Downside of low inflation: A weaker global economy". So get with the program an applaud higher food prices, its not only good for the US, but the whole wide world.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:31 | 4461245 kenezen
kenezen's picture

The dollar is in danger of serious down side. Possibly below 80 on futures down to 72-75 by the fall of 2014. That will affect food far more. Food did rise dramatically after 2008. For the first four years food went up at 25% per year. Hamburger $1.29 in fall 2008 . In fall 2012 $3.25. Dollar is much more vulnerable now against other currencies even the weak one's our future contracts are pegged.  This press thing will scare everyone. Press freedom will affect the markets.   

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:44 | 4461257 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Gold Catalyst: U.S. Government Says 'No Inflation' As Food Prices Soar 

 Everybody who is living the normal life knows that all food prices are going up every year. So far inflation was exported to emerging markets and places like China with strict management of its currency valuation. Jim Rickards has explained it in the great detail in his book: Currency Wars. Now after The Currency Wars we are entering The Financial Wars. China has already cut its US Treasury holdings most since 2011 and bought the record amount of Gold. Watch Yuan to go higher now.The great inflation episode can be much closer than a lot of people think.Rising velocity of money will push inflation back into the Western system and Gold already smells that it is coming with its recent breakout.

 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/gold-catalyst-us-government-says-no....

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 07:49 | 4461259 Mad Muppet
Mad Muppet's picture

Learn to prep, folks. Long-term storage of foods using oxygen absorbers and mylar bags/canning/dehydrating. Having a large supply of basic ingredients that will last for many years is a great comfort in uncertain times.

 I have about two years worth put away, and now only buy what's on sale, excepting breads. Cuts my costs a lot. Then when I find a good deal, buy 15 or 20 of that item, or two cases.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 08:07 | 4461278 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

Dehydrated water, bro.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:06 | 4461357 Rising Sun
Rising Sun's picture

Check for warehouses full of commodities owned by JPM or GS - they are typically found beside the warehouses of aluminum that are owned by JPM or GS.

 

Fuck you Barry!!!!

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 09:12 | 4461366 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

We all must eat and prices under the pressure of changes in supply and demand can be a lot like a carnival ride. By this I mean fast and abrupt swings can take place and often we see prices go to unimaginable extremes. It would be better to say changes in "supply or demand", we should fully realize the market works best when at least one side of the equation remains somewhat stable.

Supply and demand has proven over time as the best method to control a good or fair balance between prices and supply. Free market systems that rely on supply and demand have a far better record of responding to what people want. A recent article I wrote dovetails with the idea that a drought in California may play havoc with food prices as modern society and restaurants try to cope.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/02/inflation-can-effect-supply-and-d...

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:48 | 4461716 Tortuga
Tortuga's picture

IMHO, Supply and demand applicability has been destroyed by the repeal of Sarbanes Oxly. Accomplished by the paid gigolos of the banksters, especially that slut former Senator Graham from Texas.

With their warehouses, tankers, faux bids by HFTs, and triple double secret insider trading.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:15 | 4461525 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Devaluing the US dollar by billions a month while denying it. It doesn't take a economics PhD to be an accomplished liar.

It's just getting tougher to be stealthy about inflation. People notice when package sizes drop by 1/3, yet the price remains the same.

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 10:21 | 4461565 realWhiteNight123129
realWhiteNight123129's picture

Way to go tyler, Food prices can not be manipulated because they are not storable. if you try to corner wheat, you might have a pyrrhic victory of rotten food. CRB Food Index always leads on Silver prices, this is the best indicator of the appetite for Silver by people willing to preserve their ability to buy food.

 

Fri, 02/21/2014 - 12:01 | 4461989 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

but an iphone costs me less who needs food

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