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Feds Withhold Water To California Farmers For First Time In 54 Years
The US Bureau of Reclamation released its first outlook of the year and finds insufficient stock is available in California to release irrigation water for farmers. This is the first time in the 54 year history of the State Water Project. "If it's not there, it's just not there," notes a Water Authority director adding that it's going to be tough to find enough water, but farmers are hit hardest as "they're all on pins and needles trying to figure out how they're going to get through this." Fields will go unplanted (supply lower mean food prices higher), or farmers will pay top dollar for water that's on the market (and those costs can only be passed on via higher food prices).
Via AP,
Federal officials announced Friday that many California farmers caught in the state's drought can expect to receive no irrigation water this year from a vast system of rivers, canals and reservoirs interlacing the state.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its first outlook of the year, saying that the agency will continue to monitor rain and snow fall, but the grim levels so far prove that the state is in the throes of one of its driest periods in recorded history.
Unless the year turns wet, many farmers can expect to receive no water from the federally run Central Valley Project.
... the state's snowpack is at 29 percent of average for this time of year.
...
California officials who manage the State Water Project, the state's other major water system, have already said they won't be releasing any water for farmers, marking a first in its 54-year history.
...
"They're all on pins and needles trying to figure out how they're going to get through this," Holman said, adding that Westland's 700 farmers will choose to leave fields unplanted, draw water from wells or pay top dollar for water that's on the market.
Farmers are hit hardest, but they're not alone. Contractors that provide cities with water can expect to receive half of their usual amount, the Bureau said, and wildlife refuges that need water flows in rivers to protect endangered fish will receive 40 percent of their contracted supply.
Contractors that provide farmers with water and hold historic agreements giving them senior rights will receive 40 percent of their normal supplies. Some contracts date back over a century and guarantee that farmers will receive at least 75 percent of their water.
One of those is the San Joaquin River Exchange Contractors Water Authority in Los Banos that provides irrigation for 240,000 acres of farmland.
The Water Authority's executive director Steve Chedester said farmers he serves understand that the reality of California's drought means it's going to be tough to find enough water for them. "They're taking a very practical approach," he said. "If it's not there, it's just not there."
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Sometimes it gets annoying listening to a broken record that skips lines left and right yet will still confidently assert it spun the record flawlessly. Pun intended.
Well, Gumbum, here are some
LINKS for the Über Doomers:
If one considers these 2 sites
and multiplies them together:
http://guymcpherson.com/
and
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/
one gets these two overall impressions:
First, the climate can be an angry beast that human beings are poking with a stick, and second, the people poking that beast with a stick are criminally insane. The problem with the ruling classes' attitudes towards climate change was that everything they promoted publicly had a hidden agenda, which has resulted in backfiring and discrediting the real concerns, like the boy crying wolf, on a global scale. Meanwhile, those ruling classes have not stopped doing every evil thing possible to advance whatever their insane short-term interests were.
I believe we are getting a break from the diminishing Earth's magnetic field, and relief from the relatively quiet Sun, at the present time. However, the basic greenhouse mechanisms are still working, and if the cosmic conditions picked back up too, then the combined effects would indeed become catastrophic. Right now, the predicted global warming is not happening as much as expected, because the cosmic factors were being deliberately excluded from the climate models. But nevertheless, the overall human influences are still there, and accumulating, and IF those stopped being relatively cancelled out by more cosmic factors, but instead those cosmic factors were to change to amplify the human factors, then the total runaway consequences would go off the scale of anything in previously known human history. More and more weather extremes would be the relatively short-term results, with a longer term driving of climate changes beyond the ability of our current civilization to be able to adapt to successfully would be the longer term result.
THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT AFTER ONE RECOGNIZES THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE HUMAN WORLD IS ACTUALLY CONTROLLED BY HUGE LIES, BACKED UP BY LOTS OF VIOLENCE, AND THAT THE FUNDING OF POLITICS EXPRESSED THAT MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, THERE IS NO LONGER ANY WAY TO TRUST MOST SOURCES OF INFORMATION, AND LESS OF A WAY TO BELIEVE THAT HUMANS WILL NOT CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO REAL PROBLEMS BY BECOMING EVEN MORE CRIMINALLY INSANE THAN THEY ARE NOW.
Oh bullshit....."unusual" weather happens every year.
Back to HuffPo with you.
Were you both stupid or did you suffer a brain injury?
Wait for it, that sound in the distance .......... CLIMATE CHANGEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Told you it was coming. Now you can go back to Snooki and the Wookie.
I guess that California reverting back to its historic climate pattern is too much for the self promotional types.
Plan ahead. A concept the Feds and Sacramento have yet to concieve.
"US Bureau of Reclamation"
WTF?
So is that the new name of the IRS?
I guess it makes sense, as they are continually reclaiming "our" money.
I had to look it up...
Michael L. Connor was confirmed Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation by the United States Senate on May 21, 2009, nominated by president fuckface.
Agenda 21 guy. Was a tick on the bollock of some guy at the original Earth Summit.
Yes.
You see, to the egotistical statist mind, the water/snow/ice/land/air is only loaned out for tax generation and/or vote buying purposes. To them, its theirs and they can withold any "loan" whenever they want.
Yep, this year they are reclaiming cali's original deserts. They have been wet for too long.
Idiots!
Why are they pretending that some mere local physical constraint is any problem?
Just go to the undrainable water pool in Washington DC --- you know, the one right next to the inexhaustable money tree.
Saddest thing is the possibility the old established groves will die. Having a yearly vegetable crop fail is devastating but having the huge capital investment of these trees being lost must be an unimaginable experience. I can't imagine what these farmers are going through. I, myself, am watering my citrus just to get them though 86 degree weather for the last 2 weeks. I have never watered this time of year. I am fighting deep trepidation we are facing very difficult times that are not just economic.
This can't be just stupidity. This is purposeful for some reason. Is the NSA itching to bring out those 1 billion rounds of ammo out of storage?
Miffed;-)
My heart bleeds for all those established orchard farmers in California, especially those whose farms have been in their families for multiple generations and who face losing it all as a result of this drought (and the apparent associated bungling and mismanagment of water supplies). I happened to talk to one recently on the phone while placing an order with her for some dried fruit, and I could hear the desperation and tearing-up in her voice when I brought up the subject of the drought. It was painful to hear; as if we do not already have MORE than enough bullshit to deal with nowadays in the USA.
In the mid-west this winter has sucked: polar vortex and tons of snow. I'm praying I didn't lose many trees to the deep cold.
That being said, I'll take the cold and moisture over a severe drought every year. Winter ends and spring returns to those of us ravished by this horrible weather.....droughts can go on for decades.
My thoughts go out to anybody farming in CA. To the rest of us: hedge accordingly. Order seeds and plant your local garden, prices are rising fast.
The food company I work for is getting killed by the enormous rise in basic food-related commodities. We pass those prices along to the consumer.
I am already planning on expanding my (raised-bed) garden this coming summer, but with our cool climate and short growing season, combined with the very wet and cloudy 'summer' weather pattern of the last 7 or 8 years, and the abysmally poor soil on my property (pure glacial till), at best I can only hope to be self-sufficient in a few types of produce, and then only for maybe three months, max, out of the year. And even that assumes that the moose (who are all but impossible to fully deter) leave it alone.
I miss Alaska. Was raised in the Matsu valley. Good luck gardening this year.
Try buying a high tunnel greenhouse surround it with a solar powered electric fence. Establish a rainwater catchment system.
Oh, and work your ass off!
I wonder if the owners of the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas will donate some of the water from their entrance to the 'folks' who actually produce FOOD?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ctW8scAGRI
Fuck me.
If you like your irrigation you can keep your irrigation!
Central planning at its very finest.
Sit back, grab some popcorn and enjoy the show ;-)
Double-down on seeds!
I'm speeding up installation of Hugelkultur beds. I was going to get up at 5:00 but lets make it 4:00.
With seeds, sun and dirt... a working man can provide for a family.
I just made that up ~ Friday + Glenmorangie.
Don't forget the water...
I keep going back to them wasting 60-80 billion on bullet trains. I dunno, maybe if they triple the fare for people hauling ass out of there maybe they'll break even...better yet, subsidize the fares based on ones ability to pay!!!
Call it Keynesian Seedlings...they saved us!!!...lol.
Oh dear don't remind me. That proposition dragged me out of my non voting history to vote against to try and stop the insanity. So much for voting making a difference. I also tried to have the GMOs labeling be a reality. Monsanto handed me my ass. This state, once wonderful, has become a nightmare.
Miffed;-)
The cynic in me says the Reclamation Dept. is another bloated and deliberately mismanaged bureucracy full of graft and fraud. Anybody know how many hollow points thay have?
If somebody turns this missing drought water into a hedge fund for trading on wallstreet I'm gonna run right out of crazy.
^ Moved to a new address
Dang, I was just putting the old hobby farm on the market and moving on. All these stories sure give me doubts about the wisdom of doing that right now. The garden is cranking out more than I can can and eat and the orchard is putting out the blooms this year (first year of a decent looking set). No water woes here, least not yet. But then there is that fishing shack out in the swamp I've been hankering to pick up. Hobby farm/fish camp. Hobby farm/fish camp. Oh, woe is me, what to do.
It's not the worst dilemna a man could have. :)
Food prices will likely increase for sure then.
The middle class takes another one on the chin.
But obama's fave golf courses around Cal are green, as is everything around the crapital buildings in Scrotumento. Priorities priorities.
I wonder if all those environmentalists who threw roadblocks in the way of the desalination plant in Kali that took 12 years to get built are happy or sad today.
Don't worry, we have our cheaper healthcare that should offset the rising food costs......
And you thought that California wine is expensive now.
My beef stew and vegetable soup is stacked to the ceiling.
Is yours?
I am a citrus farmer in central calif. The irrigation district still requires you to pay for your min allotment of water even though you may not get any water. Payment is in advance and has been doubled from last year. You do not get any water, but of course you still have to pay.
Didn't the Feds cut off the water to central Cal in 2006-2008 as well because of the delta smelt? How is it that these pending water shortages always seem to occur at the same time as economic/monetary problems?
Why don't you provide a link...
God forbid if you simply making shit up...
FYI, I didn't down vote you...
http://www.city-journal.org/2011/21_3_california-water.html
Do a search on "congress created dust bowl in california" and you will find numerous news articles from the period.
"istory of Water Reductions
Water in the Central Valley shifted from farming toward fish in 1992, when U.S. Congressman George Miller (D-Martinez), a close associate and advisor to the current speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi, co-authored the Central Valley Project Improvement Act (CVPIA). Coincidentally, two of Miller's former chiefs of staff, John Lawrence and Dan Beard, now serve in Nancy Pelosi's office." http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/10/endangering_people_to_protect.htm...Tradition?
That is a popular answer to lots of questions...thought it was worth a shot here too.
Of course, if you provide a link, that proves it. Or at least points you to some other site where the guy is making shit up. LOL.
When the consensus of 'scientists' make data up for political reasons, all links
now have the same credibility as Obozo.
Some delusional pompous asses(Flak), carry on posting them regardless.
Even if he was correct in his blind faith of man made global change, he has no substaintive proof
that is not tainted.Politics in that cmmunity is not new,nor is data fudging, but on this scale it is.
Round and round we go.
I'm a dryland wheat farmer in east Wash. Used to live in Bakersfield but saw the writing on the wall and sold out. The feds first sarted tinkering with water distrbution letting Costa's(D ) district get water. The other districts that had fruit/nut crops lost it all. Can't just grow an orchard the next year like row crops. I think most of it is political. Last year they were going to impose a dust tax on us. Can't harvest with a combine and not cause dust. But O knew he wouldn't lose any votes as this area votes 90% R or I. Fortunately it didn't go through. Those that say there is no difference between he parties are only partially right. O is trying to completely destroy anyone who votes other than dem. My take he is going to force the small mostly repub central valley farmers out of business, take their land and water rights and all of a sudden water will flow again.
You hit the nail on the head there, horse. All water in Cali is political.
I used to love combining at night on my cuz's 4,000 acre wheat/mixed crop farm.
It looked like the second coming of Jesus Christ with all the lights and dust hanging in the air and such...
Still well water in Calif. Stuart Resnick is a billionaire grower that owns thousands of acres not only for his citrus but for the water in the ground underneath his ranches. He essentially has water forever. In Paso Robles, his vineyards are drinking up so much groundwater, the folks in houses do not have enough water to drink or bathe in. Not sure how long the well water in Calif will last. Our wells are awfully close to the irrigation district canal. Canals are not cement lined. Would not be surprised if some well water is really canal water.
Reminds me of the issue of Nigerians stealing oil and gas out of company pipelines.
Just saying
OT:
You have terminal cancer the Dr says you are going to die but I have only 1 cure, that is right, kind of a medical bigotry.
Do you accept the cure or do you argue with the Dr and say but I think there should be many ways to be healed/saved.
This is what God has told us, we are sinners and subject to justice which is death yet he provided the one and only way to be saved, all who believe that Jesus is the Son of God sent to the world to die in our places so we do not have to face justice for our sins. Only one way to be saved or go to heaven. Is God being religiously bigoted?
Bethel Music- Come To Me ft. Jenn JohnsonThe Cross is an offense and foolishness to those who are perishing.
Chris August - Unashamed Of You13 The Pharisees therefore said to Him, “You bear witness of Yourself; Your witness is not true.”
14 Jesus answered and said to them, “Even if I bear witness of Myself, My witness is true, for I know where I came from and where I am going; but you do not know where I come from and where I am going. 15 You judge according to the flesh; I judge no one. 16 And yet if I do judge, My judgment is true; for I am not alone, but I am with the Father who sent Me. 17 It is also written in your law that the testimony of two men is true. 18 I am One who bears witness of Myself, and the Father who sent Me bears witness of Me.”
John 8New King James Version
Phil Wickham - This Is Amazing Grace24 Therefore I said to you that you will die in your sins; for if you do not believe that I am He, you will die in your sins.”
----------------
Either Jesus is true or he is a liar and discredited, each person has to decide this question, "who is Jesus".
Watch the movie The Gospel of John to see who Jesus really is. Jesus came to seek and save not to destroy anyone. When we reject him we are the ones who are choosing to live apart from Him and God will honor your free will. God also said whoever seeks will find so keep seeking and keep knocking he will never turn anyone away who will call upon his name. God does not delight in the destruction of anyone. Jesus wept when Jerusalem rejected him.
The Visual Bible - Gospel of JohnHaving fun talking to yourself there, ChurchLady?
Just trolling for Jesus. I will pray for you akak, you are one of my favorite ZHers.
Big Daddy Weave - "Redeemed"Put yo hands on the radio!
OK, I gave you a greenie for that, ER.
Bureau of Reclamation has a soylent green quality about it. It will soon be made part of the Department of Protein (Re)Distribution.
Obama passed the FARM BILL the other day to help those family farmers.
Don't let a lack of water slow down the payment transfers from taxpayers to corporate farming interests.......
Wrong! Direct payments to farmers were eliminated from the Farm Bill.
http://www.seriouseats.com/2014/02/what-the-farm-bill-passage-means-for-...
Correct!
That payment loss just goes to show the true beauty of socialism:
When the voting block becomes too small or turns against the TPTB then they are no longer needed and money flows elsewhere.
Is this not a great country or what?
Read up on the Constitution...
Obama signed a Farm Bill into law that was passed by the currently Republican House of Representatives and the currently Democratic Senate....
We clearly have a case of resource REDISTRIBUTION going on here... If it's of any value and not nailed down, the D.C. chu-chu-train will be stopping by.
No, as someone else mentioned recently, they're going to take the nails too.
Can you climate change trolls crawl into a corner a die quietly please?
They flew up into the mountain resorts, to go skiing.
Yes that would be nice...
After all there are only a few abiotic wings nuts left here, they fully realize that their theory is pure crackpottery and they only look like loons...
I figure the next El Nino will make climate trolls look as stupid...
Were you for climate change before you were against it?
Never. My bullshit detector went off on this nonsense in the late '70's.
The ice age is comin'
The sun's zoomin' in
Meltdown expected
The wheat is growin' thin
Then it was a new Ice Age, then in the early 90's global warming.
I calculated 30-35 years ago that Earth had 42.4 years of oil left. Like the peakers, I neglected to account for the human drive to find more and replace consumed fields. We still have 40+ years of oil in known fields. See the problem? 40 years reserve 35 years ago, 40 years now?
Peakers don't account for new discoveries. They think that is irrational 'hope' when it is simply looking at history and noting that humans get motivated to find solutions. It's logical to assume that this will occur in the future as well due to profoundly motivating emotional, social and economic factors.
It certainly has held true for the past 5,000 years.
Peak oil has little to do with reserves, it is all about flow rates...
Maybe if you had taken a decent Calculus class and understood it, you would get the difference...
I am not for or against anything. That is not how science works...
It is merely a matter of understanding what the data is telling us... Very simple really...
The Oxburgh Panel:
“We cannot help remarking that it is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians”
but dont let that get in the way of you simply assuming the Oxburgh Panel was a complete exoneration. it was throwing him under the bus nicely and discreetly, out of....hahaha....pure professional courtesy?
Keep on believin' that hockey stick as a shred of credibility to it, dude.
(which is doubly ironic and funny, since climate scientists seem to love to tout that they are professionals at their discipline.)
Get over it....
Michael Manns Hockey stick is about as relevant now as the 1999 Super winner in handicaping next years playoff contenders...
It has been verified by at least 6 independent studies using more and better data...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large-scale_temperature_reconstruct...
You are fighting yesterdays war buddy... And you lost that one too...
as I've said before, curve fitting. why would a panel point out that these guys abused statistical methods and basically called them a bunch of amateurs if they hadnt have in fact bastardized the hell out of the statistical methods to get their predetermined result.
wow, a model that can hindcast. color me shocked! its that whole forecasting where they go GIGO, because they dont contain proper weighted FUNDAMENTALS...and without a good understanding of the heat source of the system, your predictive capability is handicapped anyway.
but these guys wont even admit that.
nice try flakey, but mother nature will show you what's what in good time. and she aint gonna be telling you CO2 is the big wooly blanket you're trying to convince everyone it is.
Baseless unsubstantiated accusations. A standard MO of a troll...
You are becoming a parody of yourself...
The thing is, Flake, I know I'm dealing with a zealot here in interacting with you about this. That is why I just posit fundamental concepts that are not covered well by the GCM models and chuckle at you running away from (or closing your eyes & flat out denying) the holes it points in them. (Which model's right btw? They all say a ton of different stuff, but I guess the average of a bunch of GIGO is good enough to say with confidence that they've all...undergone a statistical dungeon on their way to skittle shitting unicorn climate mathland, as evidenced by professional statisticians telling you your methods have garbage for integrity....as evidenced by predictions not coming right except by tangent, the constant need to do more model runs and keep updating it to the present, run it again, because they have NO PREDICTIVE CAPABILLTY. Are you somehow missing the output of these models wildly diverge from reality in their predictions? But then you go say hey, they curve fit the past pretty good! Well what does that tell you!? Can you think for YOURSELF??)
Thus there is little point in me going and digging up all sorts of data, because you will reject that unequivocally on its face on general principle of the source alone, just like you reject discussing fundamental components of the heat transfer system because your professors had horse blinders on when they supposedly investigated the phenomena. (Or more likely, they simply took their fellow gravy tenured friend's word for it, which is where the other 96% of that 97% "consensus" comes from.)
Like Mann et al said, the data's out there, why do I have to provide it for you?
I cant mention a fundamental concept responsible for emergent phenomena that are not predicted by the models? So what if I'm not able to quantify and produce a paper on the matter, you got a better explanation? Or is what's happening with the jet stream merely some outlier in the atmospheric resonances, nah, nothing to do with the sun, right?
You're so brainwashed you cant even discuss something outside of your box that academia burned into your brain.
Fess up, it was decided looooong before the ever even thought they knew. Otherwise Hansen wouldnt have turned off the AC for congress.
Eventually Arthur gave up on convincing the black knight that he did not in fact have arms and legs any longer. AGW supporters, sitting there going "its just a flesh wound!" You bloody fool, your arm's off! No it isnt!
I mean, really! So I will just have to sit and wait for the solar system to behave as you dont think it will before you admit your beliefs were wrong. Not holdin my breath for that one! Another ice age is going to have to start in order to convince some of you.
Still nothing quantitative from you... Just partisan posturing on your part...
And still nothing qualitative from you, just parroting lysenkoist drivel. You cant even address the things I mention. Why? Because you dismiss them outright, you already have your answer, and its pretty much going to take an ice age for someone as indoctrinated as you to accept that the theory you base your religion on is fundamentally flawed.
Fill your boots:
Images for models of 20th century global temperatures
models 20th century global temps
There are just too many to list....
Anyway this pretty much sums it up
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm
http://web.archive.org/web/20111019211836/http://tamino.files.wordpress....
from your links,
yeah, those models are predicting well...
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/fig/figure-spm-5.jpeg
oh this one's great too
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wXkm-8pKPKE/UjhUMlXq44I/AAAAAAAAC8k/8fuCGwglvo...
excellent!
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/clip_image0045.jpg
oh I love how accurate this one is
http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c017ee88df70e970d-pi
Hansen's aint lookin so good either..
http://www.openmarket.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/hansen-models-vs-re...
do you believe this one? LOL!
https://www.csis.gc.ca/mgs/temperature.gif
oh gosh, looks like we've got a prediction problem
http://ww1.prweb.com/prfiles/2013/05/08/10930491/ClimateModels_Obs2.jpg
in a sytem absolutely cominated by negative feedbacks, this somehow looks plausible?
http://simpleclimate.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/meinshausen2009.jpg
wow, talk about misrepresentation...
http://www.sksforum.org/image.php?t=11005&u=http%3A%2F%2Fsksforum.org%2F...
oh, those darn sunspots
http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Nutshell_files/image043.jpg
oh, maybe if we play with TSI a bit more and fudge the curve up a bit...
http://oi39.tinypic.com/2e5mcds.jpg
and finally, the reason WHY your faith in your models is misplaced, because of this assumption right here:
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/images/science/ModeledWithWithout-large...
Now go back down to youor parents basement, eat some cheetos, and get back to world of warcraft. You dont have anywhere near the solid footing you believe you do. For every bit of analysis and model output you post up that attempts to say something, there's enough holes in it that predictive capability is utterly destroyed - but hey, we have to have *something* to go by....apparently garbage is better than admitting you might have a hole or three in your theory.
Again...PREDICTION is the entire usefulness of a model. Cant predict shit? Well the model has bad flaws, then. You're not getting around that fact, hoss. Not honestly, anyway.
Why did they cut off the data in 1980 here
http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/GW_Nutshell_files/image043.jpg
Could it be this?
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Solar_vs_temp_500.jpg
All your crap has been thoroughly debunked...
Ad naseum...
allright, we'll call it a draw! come, patsy!
you'll realize your argument has no arms and no legs before too long.
Call it what ever you like, just as long as you feel better inside...
I call it arguing with an idiot, because no way in hell could we call what I get from you "debate"
oh right, you got me, there's absolutely ZERO LAG in the system!
and playing with TSI reconstruction isnt going to make TSI a comprehensive representation of the sun's effects on the earth, I thought you miiiight have picked up on that with the image of them playing with the TSI line also for further curve-fitting goodness. keep turning your head a bit, maybe you'll get around those blinders.
so long as you lack fundamentals, any correctness is accidental.
thoroughly debunked my ass
"[Models] are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. But there is no reason to believe that the same fudge factors would give the right behaviour in a world with different chemistry, for example in a world with increased CO2 in the atmosphere." (Freeman Dyson)
Functionally, you rely on this statement:
"So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong."
No reason, except that...their predictions are wrong.
Apparently the models saying this, as compared to actual measured temps...is no big deal?
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20...
statistician George Box remains a useful rule of thumb: ‘all models are wrong, but some are useful’.
"Leaving aside the silly notion that you can 'prove' a model's accuracy by checking it's fitting to the historical record--I mean honestly, you are aware that these models are tweaked *until* they fit the historical record, aren't you? The past is not the problem."
"Well, here is NASA telling us there is no meaningful comparison of models to observed global temp change
"The analysis by Hansen et al. (2005), as well as other
recent studies (see, e.g., the reviews by Ramaswamy
et al. 2001; Kopp et al. 2005b; Lean et al. 2005; Loeb
and Manalo-Smith 2005; Lohmann and Feichter
2005; Pilewskie et al. 2005; Bates et al. 2006; Penner
et al. 2006), indicates that the current uncertainties
in the TSI and aerosol forcings are so large that they
preclude meaningful climate model evaluation by
comparison with observed global temperature change."
I've already mentioned the flaw in TSI in that it can give the same number for different mixes of infrared and uv...but apparently that doesnt seem to be an issue for you? (and you wonder why I scratch my head that you have a phd...in what exactly?)
But hey, its easier for you to post inane comments back like "keep trolling" instead of actually addressing the fundamental issues the GCMs have with predicting reality.
Psst... If Roy tried to publish that critique of model predictions anywhere but his blog he would be laughed at. And Roy knows it, that is why he doesn't even try to do it...
This should give you an idea why:
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/02/roy-spencers-latest-deceit-and-decept...
Changing baselines, deliberately missaligning the data, cherry picking normalizations...
Scientists are trained to indentify the tricks used to fool the untrained... Roy knows that full well...
So keep trolling....
Nice non-refutation, I expected as much from you.
"wahhhh, he didnt pick the same starting point we did"
but of course when Hansen or Mann cherry pick, why that's just a proper selection of a good representation of reality!
bitching about a reconstruction of a black box, great rebuttal.
ignoring reality isnt going to make you right, and alarmists hiding what's inside their black boxes and then bitching about people's reconstructions isnt going to make their models somehow represent reality. but they'll keep on running a new hindcast every day and adjusting their fudge factors...
its impressive that you are flexible enough to have your foot in your mouth and your head up your ass at the same time!
are you trying to tell me that the models are in fact correctly PREDICTING???
or are you just pointing the finger away from that fact, in some direction, any direction, that will prevent you from having to address the fundamental errors in the models?
you have nothing to say, you have nothing to add. like I already pointed out, you will dismiss any data or assessments I put up on general principle, and will defend your flawed models on general principle, no matter how wrong their predictions are, no matter how demonstrably different than reality they are. Roy would be laughed at by fully indoctrinated saps that already have their answer and arent quite interested in changing what that answer is. that's like having a first grader slap you on the hip and tell you that you have cooties and they wind up having the entire class making fun of you for having cooties. get real!
Yawn....
yeah, I'm getting sick of you having next to nothing also. aside from bastardized statistics and a narrow scope of fundamentals, of course.
Yawn2...
You're the one going against the data. That makes you the troll.
The solar system isn't warming up, the Earth's atmosphere is. There's no additional solar radiation hitting the moon, Mars or anywhere else. The heating is here.
you forgot your /s
and if you didnt, check your calendar, its not 2004 any longer.
You forgot to check the thermometers and the infrared satellite images: the earth's temperatures got warmer every year to 2012, 2013 down a bit, but 2014 certainly will be warmer. Again. World record, record-SHATTERING heat, every single year. Do you DENY the recorded, not theorized or modeled, but RECORDED temperature all time HIGHS every year from 2000 to 2012? Do you DENY this fact?
No /s, this is recorded fact, carved in stone.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130806_stateoftheclimate.html
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090113_ncdcstats.html
You've confused me, and I'm not even drunk.
You haven't yet realized who the real trolls are then....
"I figure the next El Nino will make climate trolls look as stupid..."
LOL...kinda like Hansen was betting sc24 was going to be a rager, because he knew that was the one and only way his predictions would even come close to true.
You gotta troll better than that....
Just pointing out facts, you dupe. Hansen, who knows next to nothing of solar physics, looked at some trend lines and extrapolated them in the direction they looked like they were going. Turns out, he was utterly and completely fucking wrong, because he hasnt a clue about the fundamental processes involved. And then we wonder why the dude cant even attempt to solve the matter from first principles and gets his predictions completely wrong wrt climate!
Incidentally, just because Hansen's "prediction" from 1988 or whenever "isnt that far off" from a year or two ago is a joke also - his perceived "correctness" is far more accident than skill. Blind cats bumping into freshly dead rats, and all. Why has he been more and more wrong since?
Zzzzzzz....
you bore me just as much, trust me. but at least there's plenty of clear heads around here that see through the arrogant air of high academia and know you're just parrotting what your professors told you was gospel. (and I'm sure none of them were climate scientists either, not that it would have impressed me...you've espoused so much groupthink, I think it'd be damned near impossible for you to impress me.)
Zzzz2...
gotta say that it does not surprise me that you chose to respond to this one instead of the comment just above ;)
Sorry, did you think some of your bullshit was more relevant than usual? It all smells the same...
You still have not shown anything credible and quanititative, just like a troll...
BTW, that avatar ain't gonna win you any admirers...
lol...as if you could do any more than identify the pattern, at best...
Agenda 21
More like IQ 75...
Thank goodness the higher food prices won't affect inflation or we'd be in real trouble...
Explained for the non-farmer and non-gardener this is very bad.
You cannot just let a near-desert like the Central Valley sit unattended, untilled and unwatered for a year, or two, and expect to plant again the following season.
The soil will hardpan, become like a dry lake bed. This causes any rain to sheet off and not be absorbed, or evaporate. It also changes the soil chemistry and top layer of organic matter causing the insects and worms and bacteria that make soil usable, to go deep or die.
The Central Valley reached current production levels over decades and with the help of state and federal water management.
Letting it die will not allow it to just be 'turned back on' when/if the rainfall returns.
This is not good.
And do not forget all the fruit and nut trees that will die - and vinyards - that will take years to re-establish...
Yep. Once an orchard is gone, figure many years (up to 10) to get it back to production.
It's like any complex engineering system - the Space Shuttle, Concorde - it looks simple once it is up and running but if you stop it for even a few months, you basically have to start all over again from scratch.
You are confusing California farmland with something that was once natural. This farmland is powered by Monsanto. It doesn't need any stinkin biological activity
. /sarcoff/
Headline: "Feds Announce They Will Do Everything In Their Power to Fuck Over, Hurt, Injure, Impoverish and Disarm American People"
Dear Federal Government:
Fuck you, you fucking psychopaths. Fuck off and leave everyone alone.
Let me clarify - leave us alone.
Yours Truly,
Seize Fucking Mars
When the 'Rain Forest' becomes a word in our school children vernaculary, as did the dinosaurs... perhaps then, mankind will realize that god created a garden-of-eden,... and, it was to be thought of as the earths natural resources-- a divine gift from the heavens! sadly, mankind in the digital-age has declared himself godless, making himself the sole diety and lord of, "the sky above and the mud below"?
and this is what eating the apple of knowledge was all about i guess
hmmm
I think if we claw back all the trillions the Fed funneled to the banks, and the trillions used to build the NSA / CIA / FBI, and cancel the data center in Utah, get a refund for that, and cancel the datacenter at Amazon, get a refund for that, we just might have enough cash on hand to buy us some water, and maybe even some water technology. Claw back some weapons and facilities, I know we'd have enough to build ourselves a pool of fresh water across the entire continent.
Ah, we were meant to go extinct anyway, so I should just learn to enjoy myself and drink myself to sleep.
Hey, look at it this way Ranger, the survivors of LA will have a ready made bitchin skate park with their concrete aqueduct system.
No need to add water ;-)
California, the porn hub of the world. Kill two birds with one stone. Have pornography shot in the dryest of farms and let the pornstars "squirt" on the seedlings...and for those who really know how to squirt, do it in a cow's bucket. Problem solved.
Squirting is real. Don't downvote me because your siginificant other says it's a myth. Strum your fingers, back and forth, quickly. Inside the vagina. If it works, you owe me 5 upvotes on my next 5 replies.
it works amazingly well in those Jap. pornos. thats for sure.
my wife told me...
It helps if you are a Scorpio, 8 hands technique :D
Urine is a fertiliser, analysis 10:1:1 (N:P:K)
Gotta drink a LOT of beer to cover the whole lawn, though.
(And the neighbors aren't too happy with the application, either.)
1 Person produces enough nitrogen in their urine to fertilize a 1000 sqft garden for a year.
I know it's real, found me a girl once who was really into it, but... since your message still seemed to be anti-porn and I can't think of a good reason to be anti-porn I gave you a -1. Just how it is.
Didn't Obama just go to California and promise a billion dollars for the poor, waterless farmers?
If they spent that billion on desalination (assuming it was all shovel-ready and done at emergency speed and the greens wouldn't make it take ten years just for the permits), how much water would that produce?
I don't have any numbers but "a lot" seems about right, meaning maybe 10-20% of the shortfall?
No, Obama proposed that a billion of taxpayer dollars be used to study "climate change" before he went golfing with Larry Ellison on Ellison's lush private golfcourse located on his desert property in Rancho Mirage.
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/obama-climate-fund-103524.html
Starting in April, Central Valley ranchers will be able to apply for $100 million in livestock disaster assistance funding. They can use the money to replace livestock who have died or purchase feed.
California ranchers and farmers will both have access to $5 million in U.S. Agriculture Department funds to implement water conservation programs, reduce wind erosion on drought-impacted fields and improve the access of livestock to water.
Projects to stabilize dry stream banks will get $5 million in federal funds, and small community water districts set to run out of water in the next 60 to 120 days will be able to apply for $3 million in grants.
Another $60 million in Agriculture Department funds will be made available to food banks in California's driest towns.
http://www.mercurynews.com/science/ci_25147925/obama-visits-san-joaquin-...
Can't the Fed just 'print' more water?
Its a monetary conundrum Princeton economists haven't quite figured out just yet.
On the books, it appears as water, in reality...not so much...lol.
Just wait until we expose the universal galaxy change. Special interest groups will put a gun in their mouth and pull the trigger or just become invisible. True story about to unfold.
Here in AZ the lack of snow in the mountains has me double checking the bug out bag.
It just never gets old...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA
Sam Kinison... priceless!
So, NAWAPA wasn't such a bad idea afterall? What happened to the 14 TRILLION set aside for NAWAPA?
I assume that NSA will get all the water it needs to expand its Global Surveilllance and data Storage while relaxing in cool airconditioning.
Ho hum
Truck the water in from Utah and shut down the NSA. In return for the water CA will sell food to Utah. Simple solution. Vote ME for POTUS.
Drop a dozen nukes in the pacific
http://tinyurl.com/465ocz
http://tinyurl.com/mz8kl4f
The Cooling
Ho hum
hm. I like your links. Putting in "the cooling" ... unrelated - is this some kind of attention / IQ test? +1 as it appears to be.
.
Grow marijuana.
No, the problem is too little food
I don't know whats the matter with the thinkers and doers in the US, Where are the entrepreneurs? Truck the excess snow from the northeast to the southwest. Will solve the potential flood threat in the East and the drought in the West at less than the cost of providing no water at all.
With what those farmers are required to pay for no water at all, they could POOL their resources and ship that melted snow. I can see it now. Mile long trains of tanker cars travelling west.
Warren Buffet can haul that snow with his trains, unless the trains wreck...
First off, California needs more laws. They should immediately outlaw anything that uses water. That's usually the approach the legislature takes while kicking their 20 billion dollar annual deficit down the road.
Remember Sam Kinison? I do. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-california-drought-w...
Go Barry Go!!!
Go Barry Go!!!
Go Barry Go!!!
Go Barry Go!!!
Go Barry Go!!!
you fucking asshole!!!!!
I think this CA drought is obviously being caused by the HAARP program, with the malevolent purpose of causing financial destruction of the productive class through high food prices. This in concert with Obamacare will be a severe blow to taxpayers and create even more government dependence. The Trade winds blow east and HAARP pushes the moisture into these trade winds, so it's very plausible the snow back east is created by west coast moisture.