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Bank Of America: "NatGas Is Topping; Move To Sidelines ASAP"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While BofAML's Macneil Curry is a long-term bull on Natural Gas (with expectations of a push to $7.33 and on to $7.80), he warns, for now, its' time to move to the sidelines as a medium-term top is at hand...

 

 

The combination of continuation chart resistance at 6.41, coupled with the completing 5-wave advance and bearish momentum divergences in NGJ4 say the uptrend is exhausted for now.

Look for prices to pull back toward 4.54/4.33 before the long-term bull trend can resume.

 

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Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:03 | 4471059 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Clearly overbought for the short term...

I agree, take profits and get ready to reload...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:11 | 4471096 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

I don't buy it. There are some fundamental issues to consider before calling this overbought.

For example:

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:32 | 4471201 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, the stocks are very low but this is the season for that...

And I agree that one should BTFD (which possibly may have already occured today)....

But at ~$6.45 it was clearly short term overbought...

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

And I agree that if there is another uptick in demand, it could get real ugly for the shorts. Especially if the stocks curve doesn't start to inflect...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:45 | 4471255 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

What? No objectivist ad hominem attacks today Flak? I'm stunned.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:50 | 4471275 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well for a change, you didn't insult me and you made a good post raising valid points...

Funny how that works, eh?

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:58 | 4471314 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Oh no you don't.

When I disclosed yesterday that I work for a company that supplies frack sand to the E&Ps, you responded by accusing me of "talking my book" when I refuted some of the fracking pollution of water aquifer bullshit.

You're the insulting one. And you're incapable of seeing the logical fallacies contained in your Randian objectivist outlook. If that's your attitude, you have to expect informed people to respond by telling you you're too stupid to live.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:14 | 4471338 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Buddy, you are making a fool of yourself...

Publicly supporting fracking while geting your paycheque from the business is the very definition of talking your book...

And I said that I did not have an issue with your getting your paycheque from fracking related activities as a man's gotta do what he can to put bread on the table...

But I'll take whatever you have to say about fracking with a humongous grain of salt...

And finally, this is not even close to an ad hominem...

Edit: As for calling me a "Randian Objectivist", that is a new one for me here..  It's almost like calling Pol Pot a humanitarian...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:40 | 4471491 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

So now you're illiterate too?

<Sighs audibly.>

An argument stands or falls on its own merits. When, in a debate, one tries to counter an argument by attacking some flaw in its speaker, one commits the logical fallacy of ad hominem. By stating that you take my argument "with a humongous grain of salt" because of the identiy of my employer, you commit this fallacy. You may as well have said I have a booger hanging out of my nose, therefore my argument is invalid.

Buddy, YOU are making a fool of YOURSELF.

Am I getting through to you at all?

At no point have you even made a head-fake at countering my central argument.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 14:48 | 4471720 Flakmeister
Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:40 | 4471486 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Re; you have to expect informed people to respond by telling you you're too stupid to live.

I have yet to meet an intelligent, informed person Who would ever deside for another, that they should die of stupiity.

You have forever deminished yourself on this forum.

 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:43 | 4471504 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

You've never met flak.

You've never met a proofreader either.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:38 | 4471230 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

Oh ya, production up, demand down, and storage levels dropping. EIA report is the same as all other government reports. Bullshit. There is no surplus gas, shale is for fools.

-30 F here this morning and the vortex is heading south east.

Burn gaz bitchez.

 

Stack On

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:52 | 4471284 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It is quite possible that this will be the summer that the myth of boundless NG from fracking will be put to sleep...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:47 | 4471518 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Or the frac-induced earthquakes will crack the foundation of my house.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:04 | 4471064 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Speaking of natural gas... I probably shouldn't have had so much broccoli for lunch. 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:06 | 4471073 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

What did you frack with?

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:08 | 4471082 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Just don't go "Jackass" Doc....and try to flare off any excess with a match.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:11 | 4471099 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

Be sure to check if your gas is sour before flaring.

derp.

 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 15:12 | 4471833 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I think that's a safe assumption after eating broccoli

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:12 | 4471103 Johnny Cocknballs
Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:22 | 4471151 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Okay, that was just gross.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 15:18 | 4471860 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

That's the perfect visualization of the inevitable blow off top that is coming from this mother of all financial ponzil bubbles we find ourselves in.

 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:13 | 4471106 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A good cabernet from the local winery.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:32 | 4471207 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

At least it wasn't a fuckin' merlot...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:06 | 4471072 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

In the short term, maybe.  Another frigid winter for the E.Z. when Russia shuts off the pipelines, not so much.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 16:48 | 4472195 monad
monad's picture

After being stripped of their wealth and robbed into debt servitude by zionist banksters and overrun by mooslims, Uncle Vlad's offer don't look so bad. 

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:09 | 4471085 Johnny Cocknballs
Johnny Cocknballs's picture

bullshit.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:11 | 4471095 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

long term bull trend? seriously?

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:11 | 4471098 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Natural gas storage levels well below 5 year average and still being drawn down.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Storage will need to be refilled.   Sorry BAC but I think I will continue to hold my nat gas stocks with their big fat (and increasing) dividends.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:29 | 4471438 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Also there is the small matter of 40% of EU Nat/gas which has till now been piped through the Ukraine by Gazprom.

Some how I think that pipeline may become a rather hot button issue.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:16 | 4471128 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

5 bucks it is...

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:23 | 4471156 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Natgas monthly puts a better perspective on these price moves:

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/natural-gas-monthly-rockets-16-closes-r...

 

Some resistance around 6.10 - sure looks like a blow-off - these large moves up are not holding.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:26 | 4471180 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Bank of America:  Bank of America is topping, get out ASAP.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 12:33 | 4471212 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"long term bull trend? seriously?"

Didn't you hear? The prices have nothing to do with supply and demand but everything to do with a bunch of random shit I drew on a graph.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 13:20 | 4471340 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Using the Deep State model that Charles Hugh Smith talks about, I'd argue that NatGas is dangerous to the dominance of the USD, because of its "substitution" effect to using oil.  Oil is priced in USD's, NatGas is not.  Which is why the US does not want the EU to become even more dependant on NatGas -- unless such gas came from its ME Friends, who will continued to use the USD.  Ukraine and its pipelines are therefore an integral part of the Big Game:  NWO rule via King Dollar. And he/they who control the supply of the USD controls the US and the world.

If countries like Russia, Iran, Brazil, etc, had any sense and strategic foresight, they'd back their currency with at least two items in their asset basket:  Gold + Carbon_Fuels.  This provides stability plus flexibility, as those with plenty of the latter can provide stability to their currency.

As Kirk has been saying for a long time: "A currency has enduring and universal appeal only if it is backed by Assets with universal appeal:  Precious Materials + Precious Energy."

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 15:59 | 4472041 Haager
Haager's picture

Curry has a good run of near perfect calls lately. Noone is of course forced to follow it nor is he/she asked not to use a SL. Looking at the charts it's definitely worth a try - funny-mentals don't matter anyway.

Mon, 02/24/2014 - 16:10 | 4472076 Luckhasit
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Everybody out of the pool!

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