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Realpolitik In Ukraine
Submitted by Anatole Kaletsky via Evergreen-Gavekal,
Oscar Wilde described marriage as the triumph of imagination over intelligence and second marriage as the triumph of hope over experience. In finance and geopolitics, by contrast, experience must always prevail over hope and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine. What makes this confrontation so dangerous is that US and EU policy seems to be motivated entirely by hope and wishful thinking. Hope that Vladimir Putin will “see sense,” or at least be deterred by the threat of US and EU sanctions to Russia’s economic interests and the personal wealth of his oligarch friends. Wishful thinking about “democracy and freedom” overcoming dictatorship and military bullying.
Financial markets cannot afford to be so sentimental. While we should always recall at a time like this the famous advice from Nathan Rothschild to “buy at the sound of gunfire,” the drastically risk-off response to weekend events in Ukraine makes perfect sense because Russia’s annexation of Crimea is the most dangerous geopolitical event of the post-Cold War era, and perhaps since the Cuban Missile crisis. It can result in only two possible outcomes, either of which will be damaging to European stability in the long-term. Either Russia will quickly prevail and thereby win the right to redraw borders and exercise veto powers over the governments of its neighbouring countries. Or the Western-backed Ukrainian government will fight back and Europe’s second-largest country by area will descend into a Yugoslav-style civil war that will ultimately draw in Poland, NATO and therefore the US.
No other outcome is possible because it is literally inconceivable that Putin will ever withdraw from Crimea. To give up Crimea now would mean the end of Putin’s presidency, since the Russian public, not to mention the military and security apparatus, believe almost unanimously that Crimea still belongs to Russia, since it was only administratively transferred to Ukraine, almost by accident, in 1954. In fact, many Russians believe, rightly or wrongly, that most of Ukraine “belongs” to them. (The very name of the country in Russian means “at the border” and certainly not “beyond the border”). Under these circumstances, the idea that Putin would respond to Western diplomatic or economic sanctions, no matter how stringent, by giving up his newly gained territory is pure wishful thinking.
Putin’s decision to back himself into this corner has been derided by the Western media as a strategic blunder but it is actually a textbook example of realpolitik. Putin has created a situation where the West’s only alternative to acquiescing in the Russian takeover of Crimea is all-out war. And since a NATO military attack on Russian forces is even more inconceivable than Putin’s withdrawal, it seems that Russia has won this round of the confrontation. The only question now is whether the new Ukrainian government will accept the loss of Crimea quietly or try to retaliate against Russian speakers in Ukraine—offering Putin a pretext for invasion, and thereby precipitating an all-out civil war.
That is the key question investors must consider in deciding whether the Ukraine crisis is a Rothschild-style buying opportunity, or a last chance to bail out of risk-assets before it is too late. The balance of probabilities in such situations is usually tilted towards a peaceful solution—in this case, Western acquiescence in the Russian annexation of Crimea and the creation of a new national unity government in Kiev acceptable to Putin. The trouble is that the alternative of a full-scale war, while far less probable, would have much greater impact—on the European and global economies, on energy prices and on the prices of equities and other riskassets that are already quite highly valued. At present, therefore, it makes sense to stand back and prepare for either outcome by maintaining balanced portfolios of the kind recommended by Charles, with equal weightings of equities and very long-duration US bonds.
Looking back through history at comparable episodes of severe geopolitical confrontation, investors have usually done well to wait for the confrontation to reach some kind of climax before putting on more risk.
In the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the S&P 500 fell -6.5% between October 16, when the confrontation started, and October 23, the worst day of the crisis, when President Kennedy issued his nuclear ultimatum to Nikita Khrushchev. The market steadied then, but did not rebound in earnest until four days later, when it became clear that Khrushchev would back down; it went on to gain 30% in the next six months.
Similarly in the 1991 Gulf War, it was not until the bombing of Baghdad actually started and a quick US victory looked certain, that equities bounced back, gaining 25% by the summer. Thus investors did well to buy at the sound of gunfire, but lost nothing by waiting six months after Saddam Hussein’s initial invasion of Kuwait in August, 1990.
Even in the worst-case scenario to which the invasion of Crimea has been compared over the weekend—the German annexation of Sudetenland in June 1938—Wall Street only rebounded in earnest, gaining 24% within one month, on September 29, 1938. That was the day before Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, brandishing his infamous note from Hitler and declaring “peace in our time.” The ultimate triumph of hope over experience.
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well for a start - learn hebrew
I can't imagine a finer collection of globalists than those just mentioned, with a couple of "R's" thrown in.
Victor Pinchuk...the annual international conference he hosts to promote his country’s ties with the West:... in cooperation programs with the...Elton John AIDS Foundation.
I can't decide to up or down arrow this comment. I certainly appreciate the information but the information itself is of such a beguiling nature as to define the very term "nausea".
Having seen first-hand the ravages of aids induced terminal sickness in my immediate family, I can state without reservation there is NOTHING glamorous, beautiful or praiseworthy of the predominate lifestyle those most susceptible to the disease promote. Any attempt to encourage a greater acceptance of the way of life necessary to maintain a person’s vulnerability is an absolute travesty and mockery of what it means to be a self-respecting human being.
Jmo. Still.
Russia knows what they are doing; exploiting perceived weakness in Western leadership. So far they seem to be batting a thousand.
I'd argue that it's not so much weaknesses in "leadership" but weaknesses in "structure":
Fiat Debt as far as the eye can see, combined with unfavorable demographics (aging population, and the rest has gone soft and apathetic).
It'll get worse before it gets better in the US. The EU+UK seem to be more level-headed and pragmatic than their ideologue cousins in NY and DC.
Besides, the UK and the EU have have shed enough blood to get their fill of "Manifest Destiny" type of imperialism. The US... not yet: The US Heartland has had enough of "Foreign Entanglements", but Elites/Oligarchs in DC+NY are not there yet. They still want "MOAR". They seem to be playing "I dare you to stop me" game until somebody actually does.
"I'd argue that it's not so much weaknesses in "leadership" but weaknesses in "structure""
With China basically endorsing Russian action there is nothing Western powers can do. Get in the way and China turns off the money lending machine and REALLY humiliates you in front of the world. What good is all our wonderful deadly military technology if we can't pay soldiers to use it? Russia knows this and is rubbing our nose in it. Also, I think it goes without saying that Putin will (if he hasn't already) stage and position "special" armaments either in or close to the areas of operation he is moving his forces around in. NATO and the US are not going to do anything but pout and stamp their feet.
ain't globalisation and interdependance grand? RIP national soverignty....
I have never met a self-repsecting Slav who is intimidated by a Kenyan....
To Russia with a red light, GREEN LIGHT.
Rules of survival on the playground would suggest that you either keep a very low profile so as to not attract the attention of bullies, or you make damn sure anyone one who might think of crossing you will get their ass kicked. America on the other hand has been organizing a playground committee to first attempt to bribe the bullies, and when that fails, shame them into behaving with tough talk. I would suggest that actions speak far louder and more clearly than words, even when spoken by a clean and well spoken black man.
The moneyed hyenas have already moved on in search of another hapless country that looks to be easier prey, which leaves only the EU/US gum flappers remaining to circle the Ukraine.
bill hicks on the us bully
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ6kMWA2WRk
Putin don't have to do shit except sit back and wait for Herr Merkel to call. There is no way the Germans and in turn the EU and in turn NATO can back a Neo-Nazi government in the Ukraine. That just will not play with the people in Western Europe or on the larger stage because of some minor ancient history.....
The wildcard is Allah Barry and his stooges over in the State Department trying to play everyone off each other like the community disorganizer he is using Alinsky tactics to open raw wounds and get sides to attack each other without thinking first while all emotionally antagonized.
Apparently not everyone is totally insane in the good old US of SA. Someone is providing cover for Putin and the EU to wrangle some sort of legal fight to remove the Neo- Nazis, legally and Constitutionally.
http://www.rferl.org/content/was-yanukovychs-ouster-constitutional/25274...
...
Dueling Constitutions
But a legal gap remains. According to the terms of an EU-brokered peace deal finalized on February 21, Yanukovych was due to sign a measure returning Ukraine to its 2004 constitution. (In 2010, Yanukovych restored the country's 1996 constitution, which hands greater power to the presidency.) Yanukovych, however, failed to sign the measure. The omission appears to leave Kyiv in the kind of legal limbo that may prove fodder for future arguments against the current government transition. The 1996 and the 2004 constitutions are uniform when it comes to the reasons for removing a president, with Article 111 stating the parliament has the right to initiate a procedure of impeachment "if he commits treason or other crime." However, it is not clear that the hasty February 22 vote upholds constitutional guidelines, which call for a review of the case by Ukraine's Constitutional Court and a three-fourths majority vote by the Verkhovna Rada -- i.e., 338 lawmakers. ...
6 with dual ukraine and israeli passports.
supporting and funding like soros neo nazis groups funny old world.
http://kyivweekly.com.ua/pulse/theme/2011/03/18/151021.html
Those israeli captains are either shitting bricks stranded in Ukraine or bolted off weeks ago. Time will tell.
Judging how Ukraine like other nearby countries are suffering from economic woes caused by [insert those responsible here], [insert reasons here], my guess is that this is a brilliant move by Russia and the people there will become more proactive solving those various issues knowing they have at least a little backing. Here we had 'hope and change', then things went to hell in a handbasket in a short hurry, and what has been done about it? Absolutely nothing but some can kicking. Most of you here at ZH dabble in stocks, horses or whatever. I have a feeling that they know a bit now about hope and change and are aware that it all was bullshit just like many of those here. What can we offer that they can't? We know about broken promises and my bet is that they will work things out themselves and in the process, we will be made a fool of again or worse.
"In fact, many Russians believe, rightly or wrongly, that most of Ukraine “belongs” to them. (The very name of the country in Russian means “at the border” and certainly not “beyond the border”)."
As an American, we could only wish we could stick together if we were ever threatened like this. Not the fake threats like the Gulf War and 9/11 which should have taught us a lesson by now, but the real ones of invaders coming to our shores? I'm envious of that Russian spirit and the criminality of what we've become and our now doing to them as well as what we've done everywhere else based on John Kerry's ironic summarization to the press last Sunday on "false pretexts" which is really the only thing we are truly about.
At one time long ago I believe we had that type of unity and national identity that Russia possesses. But it takes a thinking kind of brain to know when you've been made a fool...
Not anymore!
russian national identity? that's a slippery slope. care to explain it in few words?
Bathhouses, anal sex, condoms, HIV, barry soetero,
Welcome to amerikkka, barry's america, ... you want your national identity, you can have your national identity but your glory whole belong to team barry.
Report offensive.
russian national identity? that's a slippery slope. care to explain it in few words?
When "we" as the only player that's going to start it... You'll find out how "baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and chevrolet" us good 'ol Americans will be when they are asked to hit that nail with our "hammer"....
Here's a wonderful song to go with those words that tells you what we are, or should I say have become!
I remember when Web Tarpley's interview on President Remus and his abundant warnings.
Dust this one off from 2008 and ask yourself how "right" he was on ALL OF IT!!!!
The Ukraine situation is a good example of how the unremitting arrogance of the neocons, in and out of government, is pursuing their agenda on behalf of Israel and the military/industrial complex, and against the long term best interests of the US. Nuland's conversation with ambassador Pyatt laid bare the pretension of an imperial attitude not supported by the US public, and in violation of international law and the wisdom of the founders of the US as well as the UN.
FOXNEWS takes a bad drug!
Spare us the "NATO" line... NATO is America, the other members are just waterboys.
"oligarch friends" Anatole Kaletsky writes for financial times... Putin just protecting his bases.... Grow up and get the Americans to get out of Guantanamo bay. These SDR kings have already swiped the Russian oligarch Cyprus money proving there is NO HONOR AMONG THIEVES...
"The Rothschilds, and that class of money-lenders of whom they are the representatives and agents -- men who never think of lending a shilling to their next-door neighbors, for purposes of honest industry, unless upon the most ample security, and at the highest rate of interest -- stand ready, at all times, to lend money in unlimited amounts to those robbers and murderers, who call themselves governments, to be expended in shooting down those who do not submit quietly to being robbed and enslaved." by: Lysander Spooner(1808-1887) Political theorist, activist, abolitionist Source: "No Treason #6" (1870)
In finance and geopolitics, by contrast, experience must always prevail over hope and realism over wishful thinking. A grim case in point is the Russian incursion into Ukraine. What makes this confrontation so dangerous is that US and EU policy seems to be motivated entirely by hope and wishful thinking. Hope that Vladimir Putin will “see sense,” or at least be deterred by the threat of US and EU sanctions to Russia’s economic interests and the personal wealth of his oligarch friends. Wishful thinking about “democracy and freedom” overcoming dictatorship and military bullying.
.... yeah.....
these actions in ukraine (along in iran, syria, benghazi, and the IRS debacle)... oh wait... and the Obozo Hell care (or cACA) are direct consequences of the idiocrazy of the USA electing a corrupt, de-balled MitWH.... a total amateur and by definition (being a commie) a mentally ill egomaniac...... whose electorate chose him on his premise of "HOPE"
while i am on the side of staying out of the job of being the policeman of the world..... his non-existant foreign policy has not only allowed putin's actions, but rather encouraged them. putin is now convinced that there will be no real consequences...... (and who knows where he will end knowing he has chinese support).
all the while obozo & cronies are splurging and wasting away the former strength & wealth this country had in stupid welfare programs for the idiocrazy doubling the national debt without even a thought of how to slow down the spending train that will spell the destruction of the formerly strongest country in the world... because we have not even begun to see the effect of the unfunded liabilities the lies from the commies and repugnicans based on promises they very well knew they could not keep.... all based on the idea of printing endless currency..... and solidified by.... "hope" -lol
yet another proof that government is only good for fucking things up (particularly when led by a liberal idiot.)
anyway... welcome to the brave new world... (where the whimps and retards get destroyed) once again.... a brand new (and old) history lesson about to be repeated.....
Mencken wrote this in 1920..... it would be easily applicable today....
The Cult of Hope
by H.L. Mencken From Prejudices: Second Series, 1920, pp. 211-218
Of all the sentimental errors that reign and rage in this incomparable Republic, the worst is that which confuses the function of criticism, whether aesthetic, political or social, with the function of reform. Almost invariably it takes the form of a protest: “The fellow condemns without offering anything better. Why tear down without building up?” So snivel the sweet ones: so wags the national tongue. The messianic delusion becomes a sort of universal murrain. It is impossible to get an audience for an idea that is not "constructive"—i.e., that is not glib, and uplifting, and full of hope, and hence capable of tickling the emotions by leaping the intermediate barrier of intelligence.
In this protest and demand, of course, there is nothing but the babbling of men who mistake their feelings for thoughts. The truth is that criticism, if it were confined to the proposing of alternative schemes, would quickly cease to have any force or utility at all, for in the overwhelming majority of instances no alternative scheme of any intelligibility is imaginable, and the whole object of the critical process is to demonstrate it. The poet, if the victim is a poet, is simply one as bare of gifts as a herring is of fur: no conceivable suggestion will ever make him write actual poetry. And the plan of reform, in politics, sociology or what not, is simply beyond the pale of reason; no change in it or improvement of it will ever make it acheive the impossible. Here, precisely, is what is the matter with most of the notions that go floating about the country, particularly in the field of governmental reform. The trouble with them is not only that they won’t and don’t work; the trouble with them, more importantly, is that the thing they propose to accomplish is intrinsically, or at all events most probably, beyond accomplishment. That is to say, the problem they are ostensibly designed to solve is a problem that is insoluble. To tackle them with a proof of that insolubility, or even with a colorable argument of it, is sound criticism; to tackle them with another solution that is quite as bad, or even worse, is to pick the pocket of one knocked down by an automobile.
Unluckily, it is difficult for the American mind to grasp the concept of insolubility. Thousands of poor dolts keep on trying to square the circle; other thousands keep pegging away at perpetual motion. The number of persons so afflicted is far greater than the records of the Patent Office show, for beyond the circle of frankly insane enterprise there lie circles of more and more plausible enterprise, and finally we come to a circle which embraces the great majority of human beings. These are the optimists and chronic hopers of the world, the believers in men, ideas and things. It is the settled habit of such folk to give ear to whatever is comforting; it is their settled faith that whatever is desirable will come to pass. A caressing confidence—but one, unfortunately, that is not borne out by human experience. The fact is that some of the things that men and women have desired most ardently for thousands of years are not nearer realization today than they were in the time of Rameses, and that there is not the slightest reason for believing that they will lose their coyness on any near tomorrow. Plans for hurrying them on have been tried since the beginning; plans for forcing them overnight are in copious and antagonistic operation today; and yet they continue to hold off and elude us, and the chances are that they will keep on holding off and eluding us until the angels get tired of the show, and the whole earth is set off like a gigantic bomb, or drowned, like a sick cat, between two buckets.
Turn, for example, to the sex problem. There is no half-baked ecclesiastic, bawling in his galvanized-iron temple on a suburban lot, who doesn’t know precisely how it ought to be dealt with. There is no fantoddish old suffragette, sworn to get her revenge on man, who hasn’t a sovereign remedy for it. There is not a shyster of a district attorney, ambitious for higher office, who doesn’t offer to dispose of it in a few weeks, given only enough help from the city editors. And yet, by the same token, there is not a man who has honestly studied it and pondered it, bringing sound information to the business, and understanding of its inner difficulties and a clean and analytical mind, who doesn’t believe and hasn’t stated publicly that it is intrinsically and eternally insoluble. For example, Hevelock Ellis. His remedy is simply a denial of all remedies. He admits that the disease is bad, but he shows that the medicine is infinitely worse, and so he proposes going back to the plain disease, and advocates bearing it with philosophy, as we bear colds in the head, marriage, the noises of the city, bad cooking and the certainty of death. Man is inherently vile—but he is never so vile as when he is trying to disguise and deny his vileness. No prostitute was ever so costly to a community as a prowling and obscene vice crusader, or as the dubious legislator or prosecuting officer who jumps at such swine pipe.
----
he also said: (on idealism)
It was the function of these passionate sentimentalists to find hope and Promise … in the end … [Idealism] converted itself bravely into the doctrine that there is a mystical virtue in optimism, even in the face of massive proofs that it is unjustified. That is to say, the man who hopes absurdly is, in some mysterious manner, a better citizen than the man who detects and exposes the hard truth. … bear this doctrine clearly in mind. It is, fundamentally, what is the matter with the United States.
H.L. Mencken [S.S.; The Idealist; April, 1922, p. 44.] Immune by H.L. Mencken (From the American Mercury, March 1930, p. 289)
and finally..... on faith.....
Faith may be defined briefly as an illogical belief in the occurrence of the improbable.
(such as putin withdrawing from the crimea.... -g)
He certainly was long winded, try reading that book aloud.
While NSA & DHS spend billions to protect the interest of the United States, old tactics will be used to communicate. I have no idea why Obama is so inept. After the dust settles, this US administration won’t have an ounce of integrity.
the ineptness is older than 6 years, it spans decades, now it's only just backing up on y'all like a derailed train.....is all !!
Can't disagree. Bad voting choices will rear its ugly head. What part of the south are you from? Generally using y'all is a tip off..
Me: OH, FL, SC [Myrtle beach or Greenville. Soon to be N. Charleston home next month. This means Mrs. Atomizer will be down monitoring my ZH internet time usage again. The party is over after March 28, 2014. :(
The worst 'bad voting choice' is to vote in the first place.
the use of y'all was contextual not geographical, I'm presently on the very outer edge of humanity under two feet of snow and framing houses in minus 25 degrees centigrade just to stay in shape for the zombie apocolypse
As long as Obummer is in office treaties will mean nothing, threats will mean nothing, alliances will mean nothing.
This man is an utter disaster not only for the U.S., but for the world. This is the kind of leader who can do what decades of Cold War did not do----have nuclear missiles flying from one continent to another in a criss-crossing pattern.
This is how one worthless, POS, POTUS can extinguish the human race. We will bumble into World War III while this community organizer keeps his focus on gutting what is left of the Constitution.
What an ignoble end.
2016 will hail Hillary CLINTON, and then I suppose that the OBUMMER rhetoric will end?
Obama is not the issue the issue is AIPAC that is ruling the USA, ... finding new assholes like OBUMMER to sexually assualt ameriKKKa is easy.
Getting the USA public to see that ALL public office is a FRAUD is impossible. Just like now, ... hope and change is to get rid of OBAMA, you think that will bring change? Hell no, HILLARY will make Obama look like a mantwat.
Hillary is the worst of PELOSI, JANET-RENO, and THATCHER all rolled into one toilet paper roll. Hillary will be the right of STALIN, and make him look like a weak pussy.
Well, this is way too dramatic. This ends pretty easily - Russia gets the Eastern part of the country and installs a puppet, the Western part of the country is nominally "spared" and eventually gets a Western puppet. Both sides shake hands and the Ukranian people get screwed. The S&P then goes up 10%
No, this is the proverbial slippery slope. And Obummer's unwiped ass is skidding down it uncontrolled.
And we are along for the ride.
Oh please. This is definitely not the end of the world. The spineless cowards in both the US and Europe aren't going to do anything but talk and Putin will get what he wants. The Chinese did a photo op so when they take meaningless islands from the Japanese there isn't a word. We'll again talk. The US is the only thing that matter because the Europeans and Japanese have no conventional forces or will to fight. The US has Obama and Kerry who only talk
Thought that too, until China joined Russia alliance.
My company does business in both Russia and Ukraine for many years. Two of my main employees come from Russan and the Ukraine (US citizens now). We skype daily with our Moscow University sales. Here is what I hear. People in Russia feel a strong kinship with the Ukraine and deeply worry about the rising conflict hurting people in the Ukraine. Mothers worry about their children being drafted into a bad war. The ones that I speak with do not like Purin because he is seen as corrupt. Yes this dislike I hear does not fit with the published Putin approval ratings. The Russian family I know wishes to leave to the US and is afraid of where Russia is going. My Ukranian friends in Kiev and Lviv say that worry over crime is a problem because regular police are not present. My Ukranian bookeeper has her mother staying with her in the US now longer than planned because her retired mother will not get her Ukranian $300 pension from the government there. Now even though Ukraine is nearly empty of money they are asked to mobilize all of their military reserves. Somehow Ukranians endure hardships over the years and I suspect they will this time as well. But, it sucks from every point of view.
Would you do me a favor? Have a hunch. Can you supply me with all the banking names within that region? I'll do the rest of the work in tracing the interconnections.
Thank you.
Edit:
What I mean, banking names like this in US. Only your version in Ukraine.
I can ask my Ukranian born assistant. When I travel to the Ukraine I use the shopping Kiosks to convert my US dollars to Grivans or Rubels. One bit of odd advice, if you travel there. Only take crisp newly printed US cruurency over there for exchange or you will have difficulty getting it converted. They do not trust 'used' looking fiat.
Good. Add my relationship to right of screen to send info. I have no plans to travel there. Other Tyler's appreciate your kind words, Again, all regional banking names is all I need. We can investigate money laundering entities connected to western banking in United States.
All 330 regional banks and their swift codes for the Ukraine can be had on this list.
http://www.theswiftcodes.com/ukraine/
Good luck being in the US...its dream is 'over' there, dead man walking.
'RUNS' to help your avitar out, the Russian word for cat is 'KOSH-KA'
NATO can defang Putin almost instantly. All they need to do is supply Ukraine with 500 smart mines and the entire Crimean Peninsula will become out of bounds to Russian ships. Putin will then have lost the Black Sea port he so desperately seeks.
You idiot. R U american lol...defang with a few mines...wtf planet r u on
*cue music* Not just any mines, Smart Mines™! Smart Mines™ are a revolutionary breakthrough surface warfare suppliment in the fight against freedom™-hating Russkies. Developed after years of research by a Swedish Scientist, Smart Mines™ have been developed for easy and worry-free deployment. In laboratory studies, Smart Mines™ have been proven to sink at least three times more surface vessels than the next leading brand due to their patented technology that detects the levels of vodka, the preferred drink of communists, onboard any vessels in question.
Smart Mines™will literally change the way you secure your hegemony forever. Just deploy your mines in any body of water: Straits, bays, coves, oceans, sounds, wetlands, harbors, or even your own swimming pool! Smart Mines™are perfect for any occasion!
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Over the mid term the Ukrainian government will splinter and fail. The 'Syria chemical weapons fiasco' was a False Flag operation by Saudi US forces using Al Qaeda operatives. It was designed to get Nato US to attack Syria and defeat Assad like the Libya model. Russia helped thwart it hence the Wests covert Ukraine paid right wing thug operation as revenge against Russia was bought forward. Lesson? Dont support our Western policies they are designed by war mongering pychos. Do look at RT for a way to balance the Western proaganda
The Crimean situation is militarily a ‘fait accompli’ for Putin.
However, it has come at a great cost in terms of Putin’s own international credibility and his hopes for further expansion into the old USSR footprint.
Regardless of how he sees the merit of his motives and regardless of how we might understand why he has done this (to secure Sevastopol) his actions in occupying part of a sovereign nation are clearly illegal in terms of international law.
I think that this will breathe new life into NATO.
Expect significant NATO tripwires to be established around Russia’s borders … at the request of Russia’s neighbours. We have already seen some requests from the Baltic States.
Expect NATO to harden its attitude in respect of missile defence systems …. with public support.
Expect more of Russia’s neighbours to join NATO.
Expect the Russian Bear to be in the doghouse for a long time.
In addition to the above this action in the Ukraine will confirm in the public consciousness that Putin is a modern “Dr Frankenstein” obsessed with reanimating the cold corpse of the USSR.
“Throw the switch Dmitry !!”
“Yes …. Master !!”
“Yes!! …… Dmitry!! …… It Lives! …. It lives!!
Only the first sentence of this post is a plausible conclusion. The rest is not believable. Most world leaders understand the reasons for Putin's actions and are prepared to tolerate them. The probable net result will be Crimean autonomy within the Ukraine, with heavy Russian protection. NATO is a dying institution - having accomplished its legiimate objective during the cold war, it should now be disbanded. Instead it is being used by unenlightened cold warriors to pursue Brzezinski's objectives to shrink Russian influence wherever possible. The European public does not support this transformation. Only their various militaries see its continuance as a means to protect their own appropriations and for training.
Only the first sentence of this post is a plausible conclusion. The rest is not believable. Most world leaders understand the reasons for Putin's actions and are prepared to tolerate them. The probable net result will be Crimean autonomy within the Ukraine, with heavy Russian protection. NATO is a dying institution - having accomplished its legitimate objective during the cold war, it should now be disbanded. Instead it is being used by unenlightened cold warriors to pursue Brzezinski's objectives to shrink Russian influence wherever possible. The European public does not support this transformation. Only their various militaries see its continuance as a means to protect their own appropriations and for training.
Has anyone heard from Boris Alatovkrap. Boris, perhaps could you enlighten us on happening situation in Ukraine, no?
One of the early comments stated that if the west got the Ukraine or most of it, it would be a huge victory. Insane? Absolutely.
But what kind of insanity? It doesn't matter that Ukraine is a basket case, the EMU is dysfunctional and so are half its member states. It doesn't matter than anything productive accomplished by the modern nation state could be done better by other means. That they exist as engines of corruption. Without the corruption no one with half a brain would lift a finger to run them.
It's the insanity of the junkie. They crave the snake oil, the fantasy, the promises even though at some level they know it's all a game. They want their fears suppressed, assuaged, their egos propped up. The bare facts of existence and their place in it? Cmon, they'd curl up into a ball.
Good luck Euro trash mouth breathers. Between your broke ass in the EU zone, bail-ins in Cypress, and continuing to expand EU thru the IMF to piggy bank new cash infusions for short term liquidity gains.
Summary: You’re one sandwich shy from a picnic.
It amazes me to still see references to Obama, and decisions he might take, reference to him as if he is somehow a leader - it is beyond my comprehension why it is not universally known that OBAMA is NOT a DECISION MAKER. He might be able to chose how many sugars in his coffee - but even that is doubtful. Putin on the other hand - is Russia - he appears to be in almost total control.
"The only question now is whether the new Ukrainian government will accept the loss of Crimea quietly or try to retaliate against Russian speakers in Ukraine—offering Putin a pretext for invasion, and thereby precipitating an all-out civil war.
That is the key question investors must consider in deciding whether the Ukraine crisis is a Rothschild-style buying opportunity, or a last chance to bail out of risk-assets before it is too late. The balance of probabilities in such situations is usually tilted towards a peaceful solution—in this case, Western acquiescence in the Russian annexation of Crimea and the creation of a new national unity government in Kiev acceptable to Putin."
The problem is that the 'new govt' in Ukraine is not under control of the west - it is an unstable group of fanatical opportunist asshats, they will probably not agree with anything by anyone - it appears they want total control, and will resist alliance with east or west. We will see how politically ignorant they are soon enough, but every indication is that they have zero idea's about how serious a situation they find themselves in.
The western banksters (embodied by the EU, UK and US govts, and IMF) can acquiesce all they like - the problem is the radicals in control of Ukraine seem to reject any master (a commendable virtue if they also believed in tolerance and freedom - which it seems they dont). I wonder if they are stupid enough to pursue a course of persecution, and rejection of any alliance - so far it seems they are indeed that stupid.
As I have commented before - I believe Putin is placing covert teams (to kill off the radicals) into position as a prelude to any kind of attempt at political resolution - Putin is likely to be able to manage a counter coup in Ukraine, and while I am sure the banksters will cry and make a great noise, I think that a Putin coordinated counter coup is the best outcome - the banksters messed it up, but I think having a meltdown in Ukraine would probably suit them anyway - so for the good of the Ukranian people, I hope Putin acts swiftly.
Is there any evidence for the situation your present? (not calling you out by the way just interested to know if it's your thoughts or the proven reality)
NEW YORK (JTA) — Oracle’s Larry Ellison remains the world’s wealthiest Jew, placing fifth on Forbes magazine’s annual world billionaires list for 2014.
Meanwhile, Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg (ranked at No. 21) was the “biggest dollar gainer” on the list, with his fortune jumping $15.2 billion, to $28.5 billion.
Ellison (with a net worth of $48 billion) and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson (No. 8, with $38 billion) were the only Jews in the top 10 on the list released Monday.
Eighteen Israelis (up from 17 last year) were among the 1,645 billionaires, a number that is 219 more than in 2013. In addition, several of the list’s 268 newcomers — including Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook, Jan Koum of WhatsApp (which was just sold to Facebook) and sisters Aerin and Jane Lauder, heirs to the Estee Lauder cosmetics firm and daughters of World Jewish Congress President Ronald Lauder — are Jewish.
Apparently, you need the names of who are betting to create chaos and cash in on separation by demise, disenfranchisement ,and discern.. It’s the only way they can receive their next pay check. I’m sure the NSA & DHS is all over these international phone calls and smartphone correspondence’s. /SARC
Henri de Castries, Chairman and CEO, AXA Group
DEU Ackermann, Josef Former CEO, Deutsche Bank AG
GBR Agius, Marcus ,Non-Executive Chairman, PA Consulting Group
USA Altman, Roger C. Executive Chairman, Evercore
FIN Apunen, Matti Director, Finnish Business and Policy Forum EVA
PRT Balsemão, Francisco Pinto Chairman and CEO, IMPRESA
FRA Baverez, Nicolas Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP
ITA Bernabè, Franco
Chairman, FB Group SRL
NOR Brandtzæg, Svein Richard President and CEO, Norsk Hydro ASA
ESP Cebrián, Juan Luis Executive Chairman, Grupo PRISA
CAN Clark, W. Edmund Group President and CEO, TD Bank Group
BEL Davignon, Etienne Minister of State
DEU Enders, Thomas CEO, Airbus Group
DNK Federspiel, Ulrik Executive Vice President, Haldor Topsøe A/S
NLD Halberstadt, Victor Professor of Public Economics, Leiden University
USA Jacobs, Kenneth M. Chairman and CEO, Lazard
USA Johnson, James A. Chairman, Johnson Capital Partners
GBR Kerr, John Independent Member, House of Lords
USA Kleinfeld, Klaus Chairman and CEO, Alcoa
TUR Koç, Mustafa V. Chairman, Koç Holding A.S.
USA Kravis, Marie-Josée Senior Fellow and Vice Chair, Hudson Institute
CHE Kudelski, André Chairman and CEO, Kudelski Group
USA Mathews, Jessica T. President, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ITA Monti, Mario Senator for Life
USA Mundie, Craig J. Senior Advisor to the CEO, Microsoft Corporation
USA Perle, Richard N. Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
CAN Reisman, Heather M. Chair and CEO, Indigo Books & Music Inc.
AUT Scholten, Rudolf CEO, Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG
IRL Sutherland, Peter D. Chairman, Goldman Sachs International
USA Thiel, Peter A. President, Thiel Capital
INT Trichet, Jean-Claude Honorary Governor, Banque de France; Former President, European Central Bank
GRC Tsoukalis, Loukas President, ELIAMEP
SWE Wallenberg, Jacob Chairman, Investor AB
USA Warsh, Kevin Distinguished Visiting Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Member Advisory Group
USA David Rockefeller
http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/governance.html
This won't be a 'Civil War'. The US tends to be involved in civil wars because it either covertly supports BOTH sides, or it cuts back its support and never goes 'all in' to win. No worries in the Ukraine - Putin does not play any game half way. He doesn't want the pro-Russian Ukrainians to fight the pro-EU Ukrainians. He wants the pro-Russian Ukrainians to be the victims here so that he can crush the pro-EU forces.
I’m just sitting back to watch Obama drum up a Ukrainian aid package.
US Debt Ceiling 2014: Key Dates On The Debt Limit Battle
Obama Letter to China,
A side from what we asked you, can you spare a negro a few more dollars? We need this to look like Aid monies came from the US to Ukraine.
/sarc
Putin called Europe and Americas bluff. That's the long and short of it. And we were holding a pair of fuck all. Write whatever you want. Gamblers will always convince themselves the next win is just around the corner.
That was the day before Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, brandishing his infamous note from Hitler and declaring “peace in our time.” The ultimate triumph of hope over experience.
Amazing, two articles in one day comparing Putin to Hitler, the Russians to Nazis.
I've been a member here for nearly 3 years reading daily and the guest posts in the past few months are getting worse. The amount of worthless guest posts that could very well get past an editor of the power elite media (NYT, WaPo, Fox, MSNBC, CNN) and be posted on the above websites is at an all time high. Not to mention the weekend Tyler, who of late must be a intern with a lot to learn.
It's more like comparing the EU/NATO to Chamberlain...
And don't you know, Putin is adored by everyone here because he isn't Obama. He is a manly man that know how to keep gays in their place...
Who is the proverbial Neville Chamberlain who failed in front of the advances of the blood-drenched British Empire?
The British and French whining about "appeasement" always requires one to maintain a staunch ignorance as to British and French imperial history.
In any event, Crimea won't be annexed but will have a vote and will vote for more autonomy. You know - the very democracy the US pretends to want to spread.
So long as real power is reserved for IMF/NATO friendly billionaires, which is of course, what is really going on here.
As for Kalestsky - a transparent cunt. ZH certainly is presenting the views of "the establishment" along with the good stuff.
Meet The 26 Members Of George Soros's Secret Team To Rewrite EconomicsHe also should stick to economics - he's clearly a novice strategic thinker.
Uh huh. Sure. Maybe. with 1.3 million troops, sure. But the Israeli 5th Column decided Iraq was more of a threat, and tried desperately to link Saddam to "Al Qaeda". The rest, as they say, is suppressed history.
and who is Soros?
Not in it for you - that's who.