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Guest Post: Obama And Putin Are Trapped In A Macho Game Of "Chicken"
Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,
The U.S. government and the Russian government have both been forced into positions where neither one of them can afford to back down. If Barack Obama backs down, he will be greatly criticized for being "weak" and for having been beaten by Vladimir Putin once again. If Putin backs down, he will be greatly criticized for being "weak" and for abandoning the Russians that live in Crimea. In essence, Obama and Putin find themselves trapped in a macho game of "chicken" and critics on both sides stand ready to pounce on the one who backs down. But this is not just an innocent game of "chicken" from a fifties movie. This is the real deal, and if nobody backs down the entire world will pay the price.
Leaving aside who is to blame for a moment, it is really frightening to think that we may be approaching the tensest moment in U.S.-Russian relations since the Cuban missile crisis.
There has been much talk about Obama's "red lines", but the truth is that Crimea (and in particular the naval base at Sevastopol) is a "red line" for Russia.
There is nothing that Obama could ever do that could force the Russians out of Sevastopol. They will never, ever willingly give up that naval base.
So what in the world does Obama expect to accomplish by imposing sanctions on Russia? By treaty, Russia is allowed to have 25,000 troops in Crimea and Russia has not sent troops into the rest of Ukraine.
Economic sanctions are not going to cause Putin to back down. Instead, they will just cause the Russians to retaliate.
In a letter that he sent to Congress this week, Obama claimed that the Ukrainian crisis is an "unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
Language like that is going to make it even more difficult for Obama to back down.
On Thursday, Obama announced "visa restrictions" on "those Russians and Ukrainians responsible for the Russian move into Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula", and a House panel passed a "symbolic resolution" that condemned Russia for its "occupation" of Crimea.
But those moves are fairly meaningless. Leaders from both political parties are now pushing for very strong economic sanctions against Russia, and there does not appear to be many members of Congress that intend to stand in the way.
If the U.S. does hit Russia with harsh economic sanctions, what is going to happen?
Is Russia going to back down?
No way.
So let's just play out the coming moves like a game of chess for a moment...
-The U.S. slaps economic sanctions on Russia.
-Russia seizes the assets of U.S. companies that are doing business in Russia.
-The U.S. seizes Russian assets.
-The Russians refuse to pay their debts to U.S. banks.
-The U.S. government hits Russia with even stronger sanctions.
-Russia starts dumping U.S. debt and encourages other nations to start doing the same.
-The U.S. gets Europe to also hit Russia with economic sanctions.
-Russia cuts off the natural gas to Europe. As I noted the other day, Russia supplies more than half the natural gas to a bunch of countries in Europe.
-The United States moves troops into western Ukraine.
-Russia starts selling oil for gold or for Russian rubles and encourages other nations to start abandoning the U.S. dollar in international trade.
Of course the order of many of these moves could ultimately turn out to be different, but I think that you can see the nightmare that this game of "chicken" could turn out to be.
And what would be the final result?
Nothing would be resolved, but the global economy would greatly suffer.
What makes all of this even more complicated is that about 60 percent of the people living in Crimea are actually ethnic Russians, and a majority of the population appears to want to leave Ukraine and be reunited with Russia. The following comes from a Reuters article...
Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum on the decision in 10 days' time in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.
The sudden acceleration of moves to bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has effectively been seized by Russian forces, formally under Moscow's rule came as European Union leaders held an emergency summit groping for ways to pressure Russia to back down and accept mediation.
The Obama administration is calling the upcoming referendum "illegal" and says that it will not respect the will of the Crimean people no matter how the vote turns out.
But the people of Crimea are very serious about this, and of course they never would be pushing for reunification with Russia if they had not gotten approval from Putin...
The decision, which diplomats said could not have been made without Putin's approval, raised the stakes in the most serious east-west confrontation since the end of the Cold War.
The vice premier of Crimea, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16. All state property would be "nationalized", the Russian ruble adopted and Ukrainian troops treated as occupiers and forced to surrender or leave, he said.
There is no way that the U.S. government is going to accept Crimea becoming part of Russia, and there is no way in the world that Russia is going to back down at this point. Just consider what geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group recently had to say...
"Russia is not going to back down from Crimea, irrespective of U.S. pressure. Which means if the U.S. wants to find any resolution here, they’re going to have to find a way to come to terms with that. Now that the Crimean parliament has voted — clearly with Russian assent — we’ll have a referendum … and then further militarization of the peninsula by the Russians."
What we need is someone with extraordinary diplomatic skills to defuse this situation before it spirals out of control.
Unfortunately, we have Barack Obama, Valerie Jarrett and John Kerry running things.
What a mess.
So why is Ukraine such a big deal anyway?
In a recent article, Peter Farmer explained succinctly why Ukraine is so incredibly important...
The Ukraine is strategically-important for a number of reasons. It sits astride enormous petroleum and natural gas deposits found in the Black Sea region. The nation is also home to an extensive network of liquid natural gas pipelines which crisscross it; control the Ukraine and you control its pipelines - and thus the flow of energy into the hugely-lucrative European market. Western energy firms such as Exxon-Mobil, BP-Amoco and Chevron are locked in competition with the Russian energy giant Gazprom - for control/exploitation of as-yet-undeveloped petroleum deposits not only in the Ukraine, but in neighboring Poland and Romania. Fracking technologies and other new extraction methods have only added urgency to the competition. Income from fossil fuels development is the lifeblood of the new Russian economy. Threats to the regional hegemony of Gazprom are likely to be treated by Putin and Russia with the utmost urgency and seriousness.
The Crimean Peninsula is also home to the Black Sea fleet of the Russian navy, which leases its base at Sevastopol from the Ukrainian government. Since the Black Sea - via the Dardanelles - provides the only warm-water base with access to the Mediterranean Sea - it is of enormous importance to Russia. Its loss would be a crippling blow to the Russian fleet.
Finally, the Ukraine - once known as the "bread basket of Europe" - is home to arguably the finest temperate agricultural region in the world. Its topsoil is widely-acknowledged by agronomists to be among the world's best. Control the Ukraine and you control the grainery of Europe - and can exert tremendous leverage upon worldwide grain agricultural commodities prices.
If the U.S. insists on playing a game of brinksmanship over Ukraine, the consequences could be disastrous.
For one thing, as I mentioned above, the status of the petrodollar could be greatly threatened. The following is how Jim Willie is analyzing the situation...
If the Kremlin demands Gold bullion (or even Russian Rubles) for oil payments, then the interventions to subvert the Ruble currency by the London and Wall Street houses will backfire and blow up in the bankster faces. Expect any surplus Rubles would be converted quickly to Gold bullion. If the Chinese demand that they are permitted to pay for oil shipments in Yuan currency, then the entire Petro-Dollar platform will be subjected to sledge hammers and wrecking balls. The new Petro-Yuan defacto standard will have been launched from the Shanghai outpost. If the Saudis curry favor to the Russians and Chinese by accepting non-USDollar payments for oil shipments, then the Petro-Dollar is dead and buried.
In addition, if Russia starts dumping U.S. debt and gets other nations (such as China) to start doing the same, that could create a nightmare scenario for the U.S. financial system very rapidly.
So let us hope and pray that cooler heads prevail....
But if the United States and Russia do declare "economic war" on each other, all hell could start breaking loose.
Unfortunately, there does not appear to be much hope of anyone backing down at this point. In an editorial for the Washington Post, Henry Kissinger stated that it "is incompatible with the rules of the existing world order for Russia to annex Crimea."
Very interesting word choice.
So this is the situation we are facing...
-The U.S. government seems absolutely determined to "punish" Russia until it leaves Crimea.
-Russia is never going to leave Crimea, and has promised to "respond" harshly to any sanctions.
Most Americans are not paying much attention to what is going on in Ukraine, but this is a very, very big deal.
In the end, it could potentially affect the lives of virtually every man, woman and child on the planet.
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"Leaving aside who is to blame for a moment, it is really frightening to think that we may be approaching the tensest moment in U.S.-Russian relations since the Cuban missile crisis."
no hyperbole there.
:)
wmm
Some peoples long range scanners are just broken.
i would like to raise the question "what is the critical flaw
or shortcoming of the myopic, where the fatal disadvantage
if there is one?"
...
an interesting question that i would like to take
a crack at myself but i will wait so as not to interfere
in the process. but, i don't have all night ....
ok, times up and before i forget ...
the myopic do not orient to the horizon
and the horizon is the line or plane of the
intersection or interface, in a perceptual and cognitive sense,
between the sky and the ground; the immediate and the
distant. without the horizon orientation the
information from the sky has no relationship, knowable,
to the immediate manifest perceptions.
the person's mind is cut off from the unity of the entire
experience.
the same principle must manifest in the temporal
interpretation of "myopic" and the myopic are neither
celestially or terrestrially oriented.
..
that was my crack at it anyway....
Sound like Obama; feel-good poetry to suck you in, while he sneaks behind and gives you the hard-copy math.
Yea, and Obama has reserved a parking place in OUR ass for Putin's big, fat "missile.
gawd i love zh, even in its current form.
i mean where else can i can return from the dead to the present and go back into the past?
:)
now, back to the show:
so my current belief is that the people of crimea, not the rest of the world, are the ones' who are keeping the ruskies underwrap. putin knows that if he tries to annex crimea, the crimeans will fight. all of them. especially those who speak russian. they know russian history. no crimeans want to be ruled by putin. not even the crazy ones. you see the "violence" in crimea? photo opps at their best.
hence the early public announcement by the putin-meister that there would be no annexation
the people of crimea are speaking loadly by doing nothing. one mistep by putin and they'll be all over the invaders.
the crimeans have putin over a barrel.
:)
Ukraine is not important to the U.S. That is the fiction.
What makes Ukraine important to west is in part, is that Ukraine is important to Russia. The enemy of my enemy is my friend....
Obama and Putin both wear satin panties so they have that going for them
"if nobody backs down the entire world will pay the price."
No, just America.
No, the whole world will pay. We are all interconnected. The USA will pay dearly but so will many more....
The ripples will impact the world, the guy means WE who LIVE in America will suffer our own personal raping. I mean, I can certainly empathize with those suffering in other countries, but a good butt-fucking in your own life really brings it 'home'.
B========D >ass
Really? What price will anyone pay except Ukranians and Western Europeans will get a bit chilled. But it is Spring.
A tempest in a teapot for the leeches inside the Beltway who live for "The Game". But no one else cares. Crimea is a fait accompli - Putin already won once again.
"unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
what utter imbecilic moronic fucktarded idiocy from the ziocon suck puppet from kenya.
obama is a warmongerer with indonesian citizenship - he is an enemy of the usa, a traitor if you can call an indnoesian citizen a traitor.
Man how I wish his mom would've been an ardent example of abortion.
she was in on and a big part of the plan. they wanted to raise a mulatto to become president. i'm sure there are lots of other 'pretenders' out there that were bred depending on what was the best route for cia/mic to keep producing 'presidents of the usa'.
Brain dead monkey bitches don't understand the concept of abortion.
It is why gutting knives were invented
What if this is the end of the importance of oil tied to currency? Maybe we don't give hoot about the end of the petrodollar because it may not matter anymore.
If we are talking about a game of chicken, not chess. I’m afraid the Obama clan can run circles around Putin when it comes to devouring fixings of Pan-Roasted Chicken Breasts with Mole Negro.
http://www.foodandwine.com/recipes/pan-roasted-chicken-breasts-with-mole-negro
the game that is being played is called
"let's go get lost". it is best played by two
people who care for one another, if not, the
result will surly be a tragedy. if we consider
the putin and the obama to be the pair then the
tragedy may be epic as they're not finding their
ways home will mean dislocation for the people
of the world,
but what do they care, they will have learned
the game and a great personal lesson?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PrmgB8fOH0
ROCKPILE - LIVE 1980 - "Queen Of Hearts" - Track 12 of 18
Putin is acting out of national interest. Obama is the moron trying to fit into bigboy pants. The Russians have fought in Crimea many times. They will maintain control of it because it is critical to them.
Please please Putin , you can stop all this in an instant ..
Nuke Brussels, Just nuke it, forget anything else .
I promise you will win everything as so does the rest of Europe.
All the fucking slimy socialist scum will slide away like the scum they are and all the castrated monkeys with fat mouths
As for Obummer , he will just go back to sucking himself off playing with nuts and bananas and picking fleas off the hag he sleeps with
fuck you asshole
truth really hurts doesn't it.
It's a tough world when you are a weak pussy liberal asshole
This Article is very poor journalism. Not that the art of Journalism is anything to speak of these days.
Anyway:
Let me get this straight, Putin is defending Russian speaking
Ukrainians and Obama is defending Ukrainians who speak American?
Ah hold a green card, have an Aunt in the USSA. Ah like American ice cream?
I mean for fuck sacks. 99.9% of Americans could not even identify
Ukraine on a map.
Putin has a hand full of trump cards plus the Ace of Spades
Obama has a hand full of Jokers.
Enough said
Litmus test is to see US reaction when the Chinese decide to take over Vancouver... I'll bet no one in the Western world is going to take that lying down!
If I hear "sits on top of an enormous supply of oil and gas reserves" again, I'm gonna' puke!
The major tool of economic suppression we have is artifically high petroleum prices: it started the recession and their lowering will end it. It's all being run by pseudo-green Malthusian con men.
It looks like the deal will be that Putin gets the Crimea and NATO gets a friendly government in Kiev. The Crimea is a ‘fait accompli’ … Putin will never leave … so NATO must now focus on ensuring that the western core of Ukraine is protected (we must recognise a strong possibility of more eastern provinces breaking away).
It is important to discount Putin’s concerns over ethnic Russians. It has been a good card to play but it has been used to simply provide cover for Putin’s true motives, securing the Sevastopol naval base and the gas reserves of the Black Sea.
“In the event Crimea does join Russia, analysts said Ukraine's Black Sea gas could end up in Russian hands though be connected to Ukraine's gas infrastructure. They say Ukraine would then likely cut off supplies to Crimea.
That in turn could prompt Russia to use the Odessa field and other Ukrainian developments in the Black Sea to supply Crimea, they said.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/ukraine-crisis-gas-crimea-idUSL6N0M41R320140307
I think Putin will secure the gas fields and if Ukraine cuts off supply to the Crimea … then Putin might well cut the connections to Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, as well as developing the Odessa field. He seems to have all the cards …. Just a question of which ones he will play.
The fix is in... the fate of Ukraine was decided in advance...partition. The msm pantomime is the cover story. Austerity coming to the Western Ukraine and Crimea returned to Russia.
Obama and Putin both claim the gold mine...the Ukrainians get the shaft and a 1 billlion dollar sub prime loan from the Fed....er... I mean an "aid package"
It didn't take long for the real reasons of this conflict to come out;
Ukraine signs $10 billion shale gas deal with Chevronhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-ukraine-chevron-idUSBRE9A40...
All I care about is that whatever they are doing; THEY ARE DOING IT WITH MY FUCKING MONEY! Detestable assholes, every last one of em.
The reality of today's world summarized :
Oil situation :
http://iiscn.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/jlliquidsworld.jpg
Leading to :
http://iiscn.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/bp-oil-price-2013.jpg
In other words current crisis is primarily a monstruous oil shock, and only the beginning.
Reminder :
Contrary to the legend on the above graph (barrel price), the first oil shock was much more the direct consequence of US 1970 oil production peak :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png
Associated to the rebalance of barrels revenues between majors and countries, and dropping of B Woods in 71 and associated $ devaluation.
The "embargo" an epiphenomenon, very limited, lasted 3 months, but pratical to hide US peak and "put the blame" on "the Arabs".
Geopolitical summary :
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/Seal_of_United_States_Central_Command.png/768px-Seal_of_United_States_Central_Command.png
I think things will be relatively quiet from now until the 21st, which is when the Russian parliament votes on whether or not to legally recognize Crimea as Russian Federation territory. the vote of course is a mere formality at this point, as there is no doubt in anyone's mind what the outcome of the vote will be.
now hopefully at that point, the white house and the state department will quietly recognize that it is no longer possible for them to fully implement "operation democracy by molotov toting neo- nazis" and will back off. in brief, Satan's little helpers in DC will just have to be happy with only destroying half a country this time around.
or they will choose to continue to blindly pursue their destructive and arrogant ambitions in this situation in which case, who knows where this ends? what I do know is the longer this drags on, the more threats get tossed around the less likely everybody gets out of this clean.
and getting out dirty in this situation, well that could make you glow...
This impasse is the inevitable/predictable result of the MIC/PNAC "full spectrum" plan to roll back Russia (and more).
This is what happens in practice with such expansionist policy and program.
Militaristic organizations and their suppliers are enriched and empowered. Politicians, administrators, and pundits who believe and spout jingoist/alarmist/hubristic nonsense are promoted.
Eventually, Russia (or China?) is pushed into a (perceived existential) corner and say "no more".
For both sides, for the leaders of their respective institutions, the issue seems critical.
For one, survival of domestic institutions and political organizations linked to national independence.
For the other, survival of the institutions and political organizations wedded to a global Pentagon and petrodollar racket.
A new cold(non)war. After a decade of scaring old people with strange names from even stranger places the power needs a simple reset! Explaining a contrived standoff between the east and west would be great for ratings and help Americans forget about the 50 nations persumablity sending fighters to Syria. The ebb and flow of geopolitical or it would be much more practical to go after Russia than Ukraine anyways?
US giving up the Reserve currency for Ukraine? I think not.
Crimea will formally go to Russia and EU gets Greece II, without Olivia....
But at least that is what the issue is about, the gas, oil, debts and breadbasket of Ukraine, Russia must have their port. That is not part of the real debate...
This ain't posturing.
US-EU sucker punched Russia and Russia kicked them back in the balls.
Your move Obama...
Hint: You better go golfing. You ain't gonna get under par on this course.
Obama will bend in the end. The US has no leverage. Could have if we had gone balls to the wall to become an energy exporter. Neither side wants shots fired onto the mainland.
There is zero leadership in the west so Putin will get everything he wants. He already has China on his side.
I know it sounds highly generalized, but it's not, because we've seen Obama for going on 5 years now. He is not a "president" at all. He's both an opportunitist using politics to get rich and powerful, but also a radical Fascist with Marxist schooling. The latter is what has made him truly dangerous to US, not the rest of the world.
Obama is a wimp as well. Liberals love rhetoric and name-calling, and while it works so well with the US Press propoganda machine, Putin and China know the game and its basis in lies. Talk is cheap, lies don't change reality, Putin knows it, and Obama is gutless. If he does do anything, it will continue be based in pure stupidity (i.e. Kerry, Biden, etc.).
If Obama starts a war, WE lose. I am highly confident his pacifixt party won't support it. Conservatives certainly don't want war. But note also he is a lame-fool president. He's on the way out, so what does he care? He has lied all along, and will continue to lie... and his democrat bitches and infrastucture will spew the part lie line continually. Most now don't believe them, yet hard-core kook-aid drinkers STILL think he's the New Messiah.
How it sucks to have greedy, utterly self-centered fools running almost all of our economy. The country is corrupt, lying is totally normal, etc. We are so screwed.
I'm pessimistic even about my metal reserves. I'll bet when the major crash comes (i.e. faith in the Dollar plummets, triggering the bank runs/closures/bail-ins), TPTB (JP, Chase, Fed Res), will STILL oppress metal prices. I suppose the black market will explode, revealing the real price. But if few private citizens have money to buy at the falsely low prices, will silver become a glut, will the lie continue to be believed, will paper metal prices remain in power?
In a letter that he sent to Congress this week, Obama claimed that the Ukrainian crisis is an "unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
It is no such thing.
This probably is mostly about The World Reserve Currency issue. The BRICS have been waiting in the wings for a surge forward, this may be their cue. The "real" issue ought to be about the illegal take over of the corrupt but legitimate government in Kiev by neo-nazi groups Svoboda and Right Sector...without US dollars from billionaires like Pierre Omidyar and USAID, the riots and violence that toppled Yanucovitch would most likely never have happened. But unfortunately this doesn't seem likely, though I can't understand Putin not talking this up more. The parties should return to the threeway agreement that Yanucovitch was looking at before the violence hit. Putin engineered the de-escalation and solution to the Sirian crisis, so I expect that he'll make the best chess move here as the US seems quagmired in exceptional diplomatic stupidity.
Where 2 fight a 3rd wins. And the winners are:
China
JPM
Golem Sachs