This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Why Polling Is Meaningless
Politicians, these days, appear to magically conjure ever-more-surprising poll-results to support their perspectives. In fact, surveys are used to justify everything in our increasingly divided nation - so why is it so easy to create a poll in your favor? The answer, notes Washington Post's Reid Wilson, is not in over-sampling partisan perspectives - the problem is that Americans are changing the way they communicate. Simply put, if you want to produce a survey that tilts distinctly Republican, call landlines only. If you want to produce a Democratic-skewed poll, stick to cell phones.
Most political polling these days is seriously skewed. But the problems with polling aren’t oversamples of partisans bending results to one side’s preferred perspective — the problem is that Americans are increasingly changing the way they communicate.
Traditionally, pollsters have gauged voter or consumer opinions by calling their targets at home.
...
But voters aren’t waiting around by their clunky old landlines anymore... more than half of us either don’t own a landline phone or don’t use their phone as their primary means of communication. Today, we live on our cellphones.
Those who use cellphones look remarkably different, demographically speaking, than those who use landlines. More than 60 percent of adults under age 45 use only their cellphones, Stryker reported, using data collected by the CDC, versus just 13 percent of those 65 and older. Hispanics are much more likely to rely solely on their cells than any other race.
...those who own only cellphones are much more likely to lean towards Democrats than those attached to landlines. Cell-only respondents leaned toward Democrats by 11 percentage points; those who answered surveys on landlines leaned toward Democrats by just 2 percentage points.
The implications are clear: If you want to produce a survey that tilts distinctly Republican, call landlines only. If you want to produce a Democratic-skewed poll, stick to cell phones. If you want a survey that accurately represents the views of the modern electorate, controlling for the percentage of cellphone-only users is just as important as making sure your sample accurately reflects gender, race and education breakdowns of the broader population.
So, in summary, as Wilson notes:
when evaluating a poll, after checking the partisan breakdown, be sure to check just how much of a given survey was conducted among cellphone users. It’s another grain of salt one should use when gauging the electorate — and the accuracy of any given survey.
Unless, of course, the results fit with your exiting bias - in which case celebrate them!?
»
- 6202 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
<--- Polling is meaningless
<--- Polling is not meaningless
The polling centers keep a data base of call-ees and their slants. Need to goal seek a poll? simply do a data dive and call the homerun list.
How many of the cell phone users got them free from Obama?
What's the point in polling the FSA? We already know their opinion:
"Give me MOAR free shit!"
Hmmmmm. Poll San Francisco or Tulsa. Wonder what the results will be. This is the easy way to skew results.
Re: "Give me MOAR free shit!"
The OldFarts living off their free shit have cell phones too.
The Obamaphone program in my state includes military veterans.
The recent Florida poll, might be the one to watch..
"The polling centers keep a data base of call-ees and their slants." Stop the h8, please. "Slants" is not appropriate. They prefer to be called "people of colour; not black but also not white, and probably smarter than you anyway".
Are you conducting a poll about polling?
Of course the unsaid thing from this article is: only old people use landlines.
Ha! Ha! Old people are so dumb! I hate them so much! They're so OLD!!! And friggin' STUPID!!!
Glad I voted for prebudent blahdumdah!
Anything the magic picture screen says they will believe... Bunch of poll smokers
So according to the Wapo, the Statists can all safely ignore the polling that says Obama is deeply unpopular (and getting more so every day) so we can be confident that the Democrat party will hold onto the Senate. Is that about it?
As they say, the Wapo opinionators need to moderate their whistling, because they are going to wake up the Democrat voters currently residing in the graveyard.
Just run the list of Obamaphone numbers and FreEBT crowd.
< Polling is useless.
< Polling is not useful.
Can I give you both an up and a down arrow?
Found this: http://pastebin.com/VE6TxMCh
<-----All Polls Blow
<------------Polish women are HOT
Having worked in the industry many years, one thing has always been very clear, polls and research are commissioned by those who want to back up a preconceived point of view, not to form one. It is an industry based on answers looking for the right questions.
Polling causes spinlock - use event driven interrupts to make decisions
All it takes is phrasing the question correctly: pro-life, death tax, universal health care, patriot act, etc. All of these words are designed to throw off the respondent and influence the response. Americans are mostly too stupid to see through the buzzwords.
that's a great point. a textbook example would be asking people if they think the government should "allow flagburning" versus "ban flagburning". At least a few years back, in some repeated polls, people would say no, don't allow it {that is, ban it} but would also say no, don't ban it {that is, allow it}.
Now imagine people who study that sort of thing extensively, then imagine them writing the polls, or worse, the stories {or editing} in your favorite major newspaper or news station.
Probably many or even most people reading a site like zh aren't easily swayed by stupid leading language tricks, but as the old quip goes, think of how stupid the average person, then think of the fact that half of the population is dumber than that.
I'll simplify things. Polling is meaningless because the American public is stupid and cant' take their minds off of their iGadgets long enough to consider the questions.
That is all.
Poles are not meanless. They're people, just like you and me. Well, maybe a little less smart, but they're still people. Stop your H8, please.
they will be the people who will vote that both you and them will be the turkey for the thanksgiving. enjoy your demoncracy.
4 out of 3 people just don't get statistics, it's a known fact.
That's because 130% of Americans are schizos.
94.23% of all statistics are made up on-the-spot.
Hispanics are much more likely to rely solely on their cells than any other race.
Hispanic became a race when? See the problems with polling... they're conducted by intellectual midgets*.
*Also not a race.
Not "race", but "rice". It was a typo.
As in, "Would you like sticky rice with your green curry Lam Gao" "No, I'll take the hispanic rice. It's less starchy."
BTW, midgets aren't "intellectuals". They're generally quite stupid, in fact.
<---- Voting is meaningless.
<---- Voting feels good.
I found this tidbit to be quite entertaining:
http://twitchy.com/2012/10/25/old-obama-pay-attention-to-the-polls-new-o...
Why politican polling is pointless?
BECAUSE I REFUSE TO BE GOVERNED.
I don't give a damn whether every human being on earth votes to steal my stuff, restrict my freedom, or anything else. They can all drop dead. I will not comply. I will not pretend any vote or any political poll has any relevance whatsoever, because they don't.
However, if you want to poll favorite ice cream flavors, go right ahead.
The very notion of political polls is inherently corrupt and predatory. Therefore, everyone who participates in any serious way is a predator, and anyone who thinks the results have any practical significance at least sanctions predators and predatory abuse.
Just one more example of how completely brainwashed and insane human beings are today. How obvious can it be that stealing money from people, and forcing them to live their lives a certain way, and forcing them to buy certain products --- is directly predatory and inherently corrupt and evil? It is that simple. Which maybe is why these notions need to be repeatedly force-fed into little kids for years to assure the kids habituate these notions and consider them as natural as air and water.
Hey now! Pipe down, you!
elections are nothing but a contract to reinforce public's consent to be reigned.
A contract CANNOT POSSIBLY apply to anyone who does not agree and sign. This should be obvious.
The polls tell me that that the Kardashians are hot and Justin Bieber makes great music .... so what the fuck do I know. They must be right cuz the polls say so!
Not all kinds of polling are meaningless. Example 1: Pole dancing. Example 2: Pole smoking.
Polls are a measure of the effectiveness of the propaganda.
Depending on who's doing the poll, they scrape a lot of your data and sell it too, besides people lie their asses off:) Jimmy Kimmel show does it best with "Lie Witness" news videos...if you missed it, good report on data brokers and the query monsters a week ago...
http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2014/03/60-minutes-blasts-data-sellers-ft...
They did good and even got into some of this relating to polls.
<---Fabricate polls to support your position when you're out of facts.
<---Fabricate facts to support your position when you're out of polls.
<--------- I get this
<--------- I don't get this