The Real Inflation Fear - US Food Prices Are Up 19% In 2014

Tyler Durden's picture


We are sure the weather is to blame but what happens when pent-up demand (from a frosty east coast emerging from its hibernation) bumps up against a drought-stricken west coast unable to plant to meet that demand? The spot price (not futures speculation-driven) of US Foodstuffs is the best performing asset in 2014 - up a staggering 19%...



h/t Bloomberg's Chase van der Rhoer

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Wed, 03/26/2014 - 21:53 | 4596911 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, and one day you'll look back at this with fondness, when one can then only get "simulated beef flavoring!"

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:27 | 4593557 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

You can Double that rate, since there is also 19% less actual food in the foodstuff

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:27 | 4593558 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Let them eat dirt

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:28 | 4593571 madcows
madcows's picture



Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:39 | 4593632 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I've noticed an increase in the cost of food for my cats.  I would imagine the cats will roast well with chestnuts I harvested from my trees. After the cat is gone we could then eat the cat food too!!!!

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:07 | 4593777 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

"Catskins sell for $10.00 a piece. We feed the rats to the cats and the cats to the rats and get the cat skins for nothing." --Husker Du

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 21:54 | 4596914 Seer
Seer's picture

Hedonics... with the cats going you're going to have a lot more rats and mice- WIN!

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:28 | 4593559 redbird
redbird's picture


Not to worry. Foodstuff is a lagging indicator.  Bullish!   Follish not to be 100% invested in S&P. /sarc

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:45 | 4593977 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Fracking adds essential nutrients to your water. Food is done, a nothingburger. Everything is being consolidated into the S&P 1.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:28 | 4593563 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

this does get past onto the world.
And no, Mr. President..."Russia is not just some European problem."

They're about to wipe Beirut clear off the map.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:28 | 4593564 madcows
madcows's picture

food inflation in 2011 was 6.2%.

Food inflation in 2012 was 14%

food inflation in 2013 was 9.8%

But, beware the deflation monster!

I'm sure this has to do with the drought in California, but I'm also sure the FED's QE policy has played a hand too... see the numbers above.  The drought can only be blamed on 2014 numbers.... not 2011 through 2013.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 20:05 | 4596464 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Remember that US food is made with a lot of petrochem goodness.

Tractors use a lot of diesel. Fertilizer uses a lot of natgas. Trucks to move the food 2000 miles to your supermarket also suck down plenty of diesel.

Oil prices go up, food prices go up.

Food is oil.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:30 | 4593572 royal
royal's picture

Agricultural commoditity futures are up 20%...and gold and especially silver haven't risen precisely along with it.

More proof both metals are being manipulated downwards.

These slimy banks are trying to make it where there's nowhere to hide from their inflation.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:35 | 4593612 kw2012
kw2012's picture

Metals and the US dollar are all being manipulated. 


No worries, gives me time to buy the physical. Just keep averaging down. I think Silver goes down to $19. That will be my next buy. And then $17 if it keeps going after that.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:47 | 4593665 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Look out if the Chinese credit crunch cause them to start dumping gold...

You will be dollar cost averaging alot lower than those prices...

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:16 | 4593832 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

yeah, if my currency shit the bed, I would unload the one thing that could preserve my wealth. I await your shitty reply.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:24 | 4593879 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

When you get margin calls, you sell what you still have...

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:30 | 4593903 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

4500 years of civilization states otherwise. For every trader, there are 100000 chinese who do not care. Your reply was not shitty. I will give you that. Everything is not about financialization. 

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:41 | 4593959 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

Wrong. Better take the loss and keep the good stuff!

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 12:12 | 4594109 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you understand what a margin call is?

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 12:38 | 4594211 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Yes, its when you go to the casino, borrow money from the casino, THEN place your bets.

Not the suggested way to purchase AU. 

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 13:03 | 4594330 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

And what makes you think that the any number of Chinese have not financed things using Au as collateral...

Do you think that Cu and Fe would be the only metals involved?

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 13:29 | 4594428 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The trade was (AFAIK):

Buy physical AU.

Sell Gold futures on Wall St/Comex.


So an unwind would mean:

Buy gold futures.

Sell _____________ (possibly physical AU)

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 13:31 | 4594435 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There is more to it than that...

The Au holdings are not in isolation....

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 14:11 | 4594628 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

When you get margin calls, you sell what you still have...


Yeah Flak...


I would dump US Treasuries in a heartbeat. I agree.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 22:03 | 4596950 Seer
Seer's picture

Not sure what folks' problem with this is.  Seems like it's just good advice to be wary is all...

What would happen to the USD if China dumps?  That would be the question: if it goes up then one should be able to buy more PMs per USD, no? if it goes down then chasing after PMs might be a bit rough...

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:29 | 4593580 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture

I was in the local healthfood store this weekend. Local grass fed ground beef was running $8.99 a pound. There is no way I could afford to feed my family the quality diet I feed them if I had to buy my food. No way. Fur prices collapsed this year because China stopped buying, so a lot of trappers are throwing in the towel. I'm gearing up. I've already had several people contact me about supplying them with wild game (which is of course illegal). 

I'm investing in a quality vacuum sealer as well. I think there will be a lot of money to be made supplying food to people who refuse to source it for themselves.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:00 | 4593741 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Vac sealer is a good investment. Don't get the cheapie $100 one as the piston dies quickly. Absolutely no freezer burn.

I've asked you before & got no reply. I'd be interested in some pelts.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 11:18 | 4593842 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Wow - my cheapy FoodSaver (bought at Goodwill, no less) has lasted for about 15 years of regular use.

I must be the luckiest cheapskate alive.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 12:10 | 4594101 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Lucky you are SR. I killed 3 of them. I found they couldn't take a repeated succession of vac's. FoodSaver made good on them. I shelled out $350 for mine & it's been a work horse. The life time guarantee after the 3 dying sealed it for me.  ;)

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 12:20 | 4594141 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

My wife and I have switched primarily to drying and loose packing over the last couple of years. It's working well for us. We don't eat much meat, so our freezer is pretty empty. I'll unplug it before too long.

Food preservation has turned out to be a really interesting endeavour - learned a lot of history through it.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 22:08 | 4596965 Seer
Seer's picture

You can CAN meat (I haven't done it, and, frankly, it doesn't sound real exciting to me).  And you can also CAN water...  Just thought I'd toss out a comple of tidbits...

I'd like to do some drying.  Maybe this year... (had always had it in my head to build a solar dehydrator, but am not sure I have enough sun and heat to make it work)

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 12:17 | 4594089 TheMeatTrapper
TheMeatTrapper's picture



I must have missed your earlier requests. I've got 4 nice beaver pelts left  - everything else has been shipped. The pelts I have are scraped, fleshed and stretched - but not garment tanned. You can contact me offline at meattrapper at gmail dot com. 

Come to think of it, I also have a very nice otter pelt and a beautiful red fox pelt that has a very nice bushy tail on it and a few bob cats left. If you're interested in any I can upload a video of them and send you a  link.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 20:06 | 4596474 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I love the smell of beaver in the morning. It smells like VICTORY!

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 22:22 | 4597023 usednabused
usednabused's picture

What makes you think you can supply wild meat as cheap or cheaper than beef or chicken? Do the game trails come right by your door? Or do you have an oklahoma credit card with which to get out and do some hunting? Thanks for your humor man!

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:29 | 4593582 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Who cares when Americans can eat laboratory-grown Celebrity Meat >>

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:46 | 4593661 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Like anyone will be able to afford meat! Meat "substitutes" though... well, it's what's for dinner.

I like how they advertise that it's non-GMO soy. As if 90% of soy pollen cares about preserving the integrity of the other 10%.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 20:09 | 4596483 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

Hell, forget meat. A lot of they shit they're feeding us is Food substitutes.

"Mmmm. Honey, this styrofoam casserole you made tastes a lot like beans. How do you do it?"

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:47 | 4593587 agstacks
agstacks's picture

Can't they, like, seasonally adjust this or something to make this look better?  We all know there is no inflation.. Say it again with me, THERE IS NO INFLATION..

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:30 | 4593588 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Inflation? I thought it was Deeflayshun?

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:33 | 4593605 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Feeling like 2008 redux IMO. 

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:34 | 4593608 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Hey, the mainstream financial media keeps telling me that gold has been a wrong trade/purchase due to the fact that inflation never took prices...equity inflation here...

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:40 | 4593636 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"Hey, the mainstream financial media keeps telling me that gold has been a wrong trade"


On that much they are right. Gold is not a trade, it is a buy. It will remain range bound until the end.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:42 | 4593643 kellycriterion
kellycriterion's picture

You can use soup bones to cook with your oatmeal. Good dog food and people food.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 22:11 | 4596982 Seer
Seer's picture

That's pretty tame...  My wife is Filipino and some ofthe things that she's able to eat! (hm... what's this container here?  Oh!  "Edible Blood!")

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:43 | 4593644 youngman
youngman's picture

I am surrounded by vegetable gardens where I live in Colombia....I just hope we can export a bunch of it to the USA....our farmers should be able to cash in on the shortage...with our new trade agreement...I hope we can...I have been told we ship a lot to Europe.....the USA is closer....

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:48 | 4593667 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I wouldn't hold my breath on breaking into Con-Agra's (et al.) near monopoly.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:44 | 4593650 redbird
redbird's picture

That's not inflation.  That's dis-deflation.  You can clearly see the leading down trend there.

All these new full-time employees combined with the rapid rise in real estate wealth has pull through costs.  

It's only fair to pass it on to those that over consume.  Obamao told me so.

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:44 | 4593651 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

What in the world is going on with gold (around 10:40)??

Wed, 03/26/2014 - 10:45 | 4593653 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Isn't traipsing along the undulating plateau of oil production folded in with drought made more intense by global warming so much fun?

If you like this now, wait another 10 years.... 

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