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The Day That BTFD Failed
We noted on Friday that something happened in the US stock market that day that has not been seen since the Fed unveiled QE4EVA. It went quietly under the radar of the mainstream media; talking-heads did not mention it; and strategists shrugged it off. What happened? BTFD Failed... and, as BofAML's Macneil Curry warns, popular trades are in trouble (bad news for equity bulls and treasury bears).
As a gentle reminder, the main investing thesis of the last few years has been BTFD (because buying the fucking dip has worked every time in the past, it will continue to work - therefore BFTD, BTFATH, and BTFWWIII)...
But - for the first time in 18 months... BTFD failed on Friday... (each dip was met with higher highs)...
Until Friday.. when the Nasdaq, having "dipped" to the 100DMA was "bought" back above the 50DMA but failed to make new highs and in fact made new lows...
So BTFD has failed.
As BofAML's Macneil Curry warns, Popular trades in trouble
Last week did not turn out like we thought it would. We came in aggressively bullish the S&P500, anticipating a resumption of its l/term uptrend for 1942, and we were equally bearish US Treasuries, recommending a short position in FVM4. Now both of those views appear to be in serious trouble.
The breakdown in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ Comp. closing below its 100d avg for the 1st time since Dec'1212, says that equities are likely to suffer more in the week ahead. This threatens the developing Treasury bear trend, particularly after Friday's Bullish Reversal Candles across much of the curve.
Chart of the week: NASDAQ Comp breaks key support
The NASDAQ Comp has closed below its 100d avg for the 1st time since Dec'12. THIS IS BAD NEWS.
Historically, the 1st close below the 100d avg in 6 months or more has resulted in significant underperformance, with the avg 1wk, 2wk, and 1m returns all falling into negative territory. Beware, the 3968, Feb-05 low is vulnerable.
As the clip above says.. easy, you buy the fucking dip because "if you don't you're a fucking idiot".. unless this time it's dfferent...
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NASDAQ100 speaks loudly as compared to S&P500 and Dow.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq100-hourly-closes-bear-channel-do...
Could be ugly for all indexes on Monday.
Tylers thanks for the Biotech Index (NBI) leading the NASDAQ up and now down.
My QID is leaving me some quid.
Watch the NASDAQ lead the market fall into the crash.
Aunti Yellen will keep'on jellin
BTFDBITFL
Um, do I send this link to my full-service broker?
"markets correct. absolute markets correct absolutely."
All this chart implies is that Yellen will soon be out pimping and promising more outright manipulation in order to steer the herd back into stawks.
Yellin can only spread and put out so far.
She's tired, old, and dried up.
Her hands are cracked and gnarled, so the manipulation may be difficult and wanting.
Calm down, stocks can never go down in central planning.
Friday was my most satisfying day in 2014. Possibly my favorite trade setup is a news-related-spike stop-run reversal. Last month I missed it. Friday I did not. And I'll tell you a little secret why the market went down. I brought in a team of experts in Telekinesis and invited over two hot blondes named Bubbles Magee. We broke out a Ouji board, did a slow motion rain dance, and stared at my monitors until we toppled the markets like the kid in The Matrix bending that spoon. Then I sent the Telekinesis experts home, turned up the music, and spent the rest of the day celebrating with the Bubbleses.
I'm looking for follow through this week but with full attention to the BoJ meeting on Monday night, which could provide fuel in either direction, but the risk is to the downside for sure. I'm wondering if Kuroda and Abe have seen the Fed tapering over the last four months without a stock market collapse and have taper envy? Which is the last thing Yellen would want to see. Since this entire bull market of the last five years has been fueled by the false hopes of Fed liquidity and the carry trade, with half the fuel source winding down, if the BoJ boys even have a bad dream with a hawk in it, it's buh-bye equities. So the only thing the short side has to watch out for is if they do something crazy like double-down on their QE, which, btw, Kuroda's middle name is crazy-san. Don't quote me on that. More importantly than what they say is the reaction of the Yen. We'll see what they come up with this time. I'm sure Yellen has called and pleaded with them. If I made this into a cartoon it would look like this: Kuroda sits behind a desk, leaning back in a chair with his hands locked behind his head and a big smile on his face. In his lap we see Yellen's head protruding from beneath the desk. The caption reads: Erasing the Taper Envy of the BJ boys
I got long gold this week but lightly. It reversed where it was supposed to, but I was hoping for a backtest bounce with a little more convinction than that so I don't feel warm and fuzzy about it yet. I still think it's possible we get to $1434 then $1500, but I feel like there needs to be a catalyst (or several) to get us there. The Euro isn't exactly tumbling lower with much conviction either. So it's still possible if the Fed continues to "out talk" the ECB about its brilliant plans to keep rates at zero in perpetuity, so maybe the dollar will roll back over after a little more upside. The Euro has some decent support not far away. Other possible catalysts for gold could be geopolitical risks with Russia, or if stocks do continue to tumble, maybe the gold market will see it as the warning bell for Yellen's inevitable untaper. Regardless, gold needs to prove itself to me now. One thing that would help is silver breaking that downtrend line from the $49 high that it keeps reversing at. Once that clears, the door is open to $26, but I'll feel better about gold if it clears the $1320s. These are my hopes at the moment. Hopefully it's not wishful thinking.
I would like to point out one more thing about that ES and YM top on Friday. It's another example of how you don't have to be worried about the first sharp pullback, but the backtest better have your highest attention, especially when its a news related spike in an overextended, overbought market. That was planned well in advance. During the fake-out rally all week even I started to think: you have to be kidding me, we're going to new highs? And this is my favorite pattern. Shows you how powerful it is. At the top of trends the big money knows there will be an abundance of trend followers who don't want to miss the breakout and will fall for the head-fake every time. Plenty of liquidity to turn around and sell into at the highs, not to mention running those stops. Kinda textbook. As long as the BoJ is a non-event or accidentally hawkish (just NOT uber dovish), and the ES loses its 50-day exponential MA at 1843, we can see a move down like Jan/Feb. One day at a time, but what a nasty stick on the weekly chart. Ominous.
For the NQ, it may bounce on Monday but the 3480 area looks very likely and I wouldn't rule out 3420 if we get some BoJ help. The ES has possible support at 1843-ish, 1820-ish, 1780-ish, and an outside shot at 1750. It should be noted that I take half off along the way of nearly every trade I make, then look to reload if it's working, so it's not like I'm holding out for the lowest level. If we do get a big move down, I bet we're gonna form a head-and-shoulders top.
And bonds should have a pretty serious short covering rally if equities fall apart. Bubbles told me so.
Every time I thought the can could be kicked no more, they kicked it.
Now when they might not be able to kick it, I think they still can.
"The can shall be kicked!"
So let it be written - so let it be done! ;-)
Net-lines short setup at the close Friday. Net-lines is a long/short trade setup devised by Chris Carolan...
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/intermarket-analysis-and-trading/2012/0...
Don McLean- American Pie (with Lyrics)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAsV5-Hv-7U (8:40)
'tending carefully to these lyrics is an eye-opener.
Like listening to the Beetlez, there was a time when they were anti-violence.
anti violence?
this is American, bro.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQ2t5e7stVM
all about the love, dude.
Wake me up when there is no offer in swaps because every second tier shitty European "bank" is in ruins. I want a full-on real honest to god liquidity panic.
On that day, I retire (in a good way).
Of course all of my federal reserve notes will have returned to their intrinsic value, but it will sure feel good.
I was PROMISED an UP market!
Watch Europe lead the collapse here:
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart
What a joke, the SPYs haven't even broken the 50 DMA.
It's like getting excited about having dinner with your blind date and when she arrives it's Janet Yellen.
"What a joke, the SPYs haven't even broken the 50 DMA."
I don't think people who have been holding the high flying Nasdaq stocks and just saw them take a nice dump, are finding it to be a joke.
Should we go long on stand alone GPS and manufacturer's of diving and underwater salvage equipment?
Is there any way to get rising bond yields, soaring gold & silver, price inflation and plunging general stock markets all at the same time?
Maybe! Bring on 1974-style stagflation!
Blackrock "shuffling" it's top 10 executives?? This reeks. Covering tracks.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-blackrock-shakes-up-management-names-ne...
There will be war before government markets collapse.
BTFD
edit: double post.
Scam market will probably be up 30 points tomorrow on "stimulus hopes".
...and 12 dead banker (monkeys).
Reminds of a movie...
The Russel chart shows it to be at the top of a channel. I noticed that toward the bottom of the channel is its own potential 666 moment.
Diminishing Returns.
if this is like the 2000 fold, they'll grind along on lower highs for several months, and then POOF. for one thing the market is set up to POWER through the fall season, if the bears cant take the market down by september the bulls come in, and harder in october and then november. the fed knows when to start stuffing santas stocking. on this year its mrs claus.
I've heard Yellen ain't easy...quite rough actually. You can't ease into this collapse.
Rough landing pad. This time there is no magic to reflate the popped bubbles.
"The Market" ... Whatever
If the Fed wants the market to go down, it will go down. Until confidence is lost in the USD (by average joe and the average "investor," whatever that is) the people who create the currency still have control of the game. As long as the score is kept in fiat currency, they sill own the game, the cards, the table, and the dealers.
.... Prolly, but, can they control the way it goes down? The last five years Synthetic Lack of Volatilty ( Market Rigging ) has been one of the Keys to the Great Bull Market. What will the synthetic Bear look like? How will the will the Algos adjust to the New New Normal, will the Bear be as "orderly" as all the "Bull" the last few years. I doubt it.
Domed top with that reactionary up-and-then-down is a classic pattern. GTFO and set ur stops at 4300
Lawrence Summers http://www.cnbc.com/id/101558487So is Yellen just a fluffer for the final act ?
Of course, you should have known that the gig was up when they put a woman at the helm, they are like the sacraficial goat for the financial/corporate world. Didn't you notice they did the same thing at GM???
the funniest thing about this video is that you had followed it's advice WHEN IT CAME OUT UNTIL NOW-----------you would have made bucketloads.
laugh it up fuckers.
As the $ approaches 0, the S&P 500 approaches infinity.
Calculus 101
Looking at the pre-markets...all I can comment.
"She's dead Jim."
Its going to take some kind of special magic finger stimulation with double-vibration and lightning bolts to wake up this April shower market.
These dollar doomers have been for a decade decrying the dollar doom. The dollar hasn't varied much since the Euro came on line.
Rotation and not rejection
Healthy action
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Hd7ozHxpzM0/Rv1rm_nrWGI/AAAAAAAAAHk/hZB9tEJhUb...
Listening to that video makes clear the ludicrousness of the moneychangers bouncing ball of baffoonery. It is so farking stupid, it is stupid beyond the thunderdome of stupid. BTFD, indeed.
The time is coming for the reckoning. All them crazy babylonian bankster puppet al-cia-duh minions have to do is fire the first shot, or dare to launch another expected False Flag Event. They get cornier and cornier, and way more obvious as to who is responsible for them each time now. Everybody understands the Hegelian dialectic. If and when, of if another false flag event happens, it will be a zionist operation aided and abetted by the US/UK/IS/PAK govts sponsored by the owners of the central banks. Just like 9/11 was.
Evil is the same. It never changes or repents. It is always going to do the same stupid stuff over and over again until the evil goals are reached. It is a darn bad world when all the worst of mankind is in possession of all the world's worst weaponry. It is the sad state of affairs when the houses of leadership are overrun with rattiest of ratty psychopathic muppets that kow-tow the bankster barge of world domination, and population elimination agendas.
Lets just hope that all this goes down fast and the banksters and warmongering profiteers from world wars are quickly arrested, tried, and hung out to dry before the world of people and all other biological life forms are eliminated for ever on the planet earth. It's us, and them. Choose well, the side you will stand with.
Oh Lord my Truth...please stand by me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkKQr-UT4_A
MH370 found? Blackbox stopps today.
Signals detected consistent with Flight MH370'
Australian officials said on Monday signals picked up by a black box detector attached to an Australian ship searching for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 in the Indian Ocean were consistent with aircraft flight recorders.
Latest:
http://tersee.com/#!q=Malaysia+Airlines&t=text
The ramp begins, Dax has already bounced 50, Ibex 100 ! CAC 20 FTSEMIB 200!
DAX is going down. Target 9543, bearish below 9450 ...
(That's NO trading advice!)
DAX regains 9600 up 70 huge European ramp underway
Only above 9700 will all the lower targets be moot. From there, dirctly to 9800 and 10 000. (Again: This is an opinion, and not in any way meant as trading advice!)
FTSEMIB now up 300 points LOL
Okay, that's enough - I'll call it a day! This kindergarden is just ludicrous ...
Robot Trader I miss you!
He iconised BTFD.
OT/ More on the portrait of Dorian Gray in the GWB gallery perspective of geo politics :
The focus on Putin plays and Putin bashing now moves back to Syria.
As Tony Blair has this to say : Syria crisis: failure to intervene will have terrible consequences, says Blair | Politics | theguardian.com
Once a neo-con in Iraq always a neo-con in ME, as a leopard's spots are difficult to erase.
Not saying Assad is not a criminal but the West has to broom out its own dirty cupboards, first and foremost; from Afgh/Pak to Africa where the thirst for Oil and resources is the ONLY geopolitical game in town; AT ANY COST.
And Tony Blair, like his old buddy GWB, knows that only too well!
"My Bugsplats are better than you Bugsplats" summarises Tony Blair's attitude!
"The Market" got a wiff of something it did not like.... The Fundementals and Cheaters getting caught, watch out for flying Bankers.
Yeah, well, Blair got into the lubricious underpants of Nigella Lawson, and Wendi Murdoch. Not bad for a Howdy Doody look alike. Just sayin.....
"We all pay for life with death- so everything in between should be free." -Bill Hicks