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Not So Fast: Allergan Adopts Poison Pill, Valeant CEO "Disappointed" - What Happens Next

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we reported yesterday, Bill Ackman bought up only $76 million in Allergan stock knowing well in advance Valeant would submit a bid for the company, guaranteeing (as in absolutely no risk at all) that the stock would soar, with the rest of the purchase comprising of AGN calls. It is unclear just how much actual capital at risk he put up but indicatively May $150 call options that cost $1.55 per contract on Monday were trading at $15.53 in midmorning trading on Tuesday, a roughly ten-fold increase in one day.

In other words, Ackman not only used material public information to frame his trade - perfectly legally, thank you SEC - but, as is to be expected of a hedge fund manager whose recent track record has been spotty at best, applied massive leverage in the form of calls to make up for any residual humiliation. That said, Ackman may want to consider selling his calls to the primary (and very unhappy because no amount of delta hedging could have offset all the losses) broker he bought them from while they are still solidly in the money, because Allergan may have a very different opinion on promptly selling itself to Valeant than what Ackman thought.

Specifically, Allergan on Tuesday night said that its board of directors had adopted a one-year stockholder rights plan to give it more time to consider takeover proposals. The Valeant offer was made with Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund, which built up a stake in the company.

The chief executive officer of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, which made a $47 billion unsolicited offer for competitor Allergan Inc. on Tuesday, said during an interview on CNBC that he was "disappointed" with Allergan's so-called poison pill.

"We are disappointed but on the other hand, I think this deal will get done," Valeant CEO Michael Pearson said on Wednesday.

So besides accepting or outright rejecting Valeant's bid, what other options does Allergan have? Here is Bloomberg with the full menu:

Valeant’s proposal currently stands at $48 billion, or almost $161 a share. Sterne Agee Group Inc. said the offer is too low because Allergan has appealing growth prospects as a stand-alone entity. Shareholders may demand a price closer to $180 a share, said Cowen Group Inc. Valeant could face competition. Sanofi, Nestle SA or GlaxoSmithKline Plc could swoop in as white knights, said Shibani Malhotra, a New York-based analyst at Sterne Agee. “They will do everything they can to fight this.” Morningstar Inc. sees Novartis AG and Johnson & Johnson as possible counterbidders.

Valeant is offering Allergan investors $48.30 in cash and 83 percent of a Valeant share for each one of Allergan. The offer was worth about $47 billion, after subtracting Allergan’s net cash, at the close of trading yesterday.

 

Valeant has teamed up with Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP, which has a 9.7 percent stake in Allergan. Based on stock prices before the announcement, the transaction valued Allergan at 21 times trailing 12-month Ebitda, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The last time Allergan had that multiple was more than six years ago.

 

 

Ackman told a conference yesterday that he is contractually committed to support Valeant’s deal, “unless and until there is a superior offer that Valeant chooses  not to respond to.” If Allergan’s shareholders  deem a competing bid superior and Valeant chooses not to participate, “I guess we’d be cashed out in that deal,” he said.

 

Valeant’s proposal may need to be raised to about $180 a share to win over Allergan shareholders, according to Ken Cacciatore, a New York-based analyst at Cowen.

That would be great news for Ackman whose calls will only raise in value. In fact the only worst case scenario for Pershing Square is if there is a sudden cooling in the pharma M&A bubble, ostensibly driven by a market tumble, which would not only result in a pulling of the Valeant offer which is so massively reliant on cheap and easy debt, but a crash in Allergan stock. Of course, there is the possibiliy that Allergan will simply say no, and no other bidders will appear.

There’s a high likelihood that Allergan will rebuff the unsolicited offer as is, which may force Laval, Quebec-based Valeant to raise it or may create an opportunity for other interested suitors, said Michael Waterhouse, an analyst at Morningstar.

 

“Allergan is seen, in the specialty pharmaceuticals space at least, as probably one of the best managed and one of the best opportunities,” Waterhouse said in a phone interview. “It could stir a little bit of thought from J&J and Novartis that maybe they don’t want this one to get away.” J&J said earlier this month that that it is ending development of PurTox, a potential competitor for Botox. That may make an acquisition of Allergan even more compelling for the company, Waterhouse said. Novartis may be tempted to bid to gain Allergan’s ophthalmology assets, which include Restasis eye drops, he said. Allergan, which also makes products to treat acne and psoriasis, would be a good fit for European drugmakers Sanofi and Glaxo, as well as Nestle, which said in February it’s taking full control of its Galderma skin-care joint venture with L’Oreal SA, Malhotra said.

Sure, Allergan is valuable. But at what price? And how much leverage is any strategic buyer willing to take on in exchange for onboard a cash flow stream that may or may not last for more than a few years.

In either case, keep a close eye on this one: Ackman expected a 10x return on JCP, instead he lost half his investment. In AGN he has already made his profit which means at this point the deal is his to lose.

 

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Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:27 | 4686205 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

How does anybody price anything when there is no mechanism for true price discovery in this "market"...

Moral hazard is a bitch motherfuckers...

I guess we should have let all those companies FAIL after all.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:36 | 4686221 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Ackman already dumped most of his calls yesterday I am sure...AND he may have loaded up on puts knowing that VRX will pull the bid thus making money on the way up and down. Motherfucker

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:41 | 4686234 Two-bits
Two-bits's picture

After the Gartman top tick, who isn't going short today?  

 

Ah yes, carry on.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:51 | 4686267 john39
john39's picture

apologies for the thread jack...   reports in foreign press that Turkey has sent additonal troops into Syria under the pretext of protecting an Ottoman era shrine (as discussed in the leaked Erdogan false flag discussion):

http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail.action?newsId=345925

if true, serious trouble is on the horizon.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:41 | 4686238 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Anyone trying to manage or run a company that produces a real product (like a drug) is totally fucked right now because we have no idea what our inputs costs will be.  This is especially true if energy and human labor are a large part of those costs.  Even more so if you are providing health insurance.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:27 | 4686382 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

IMHO, based soley on the rapidly rising costs in health care (and education), both will be brought down to Earth one way or the other. These companies are making as much cash flow as they probably ever will.

What will cash flow be in a few years when the dollar blows up and takes entitlement spending with it (i.e. Medicare is taken out back and shot)? What happens when the health care system just implodes because people are simply *so broke* they get hauled to the hospital ER (because they couldn't afford a doc before that) and the health care system just confiscates their life savings? If I am not mistaken, this is the single largest source of bankruptcies in the US right now.

As an aside, isn't this always the climate that massive industry wide M&A happens, generally speaking?

Regards,

Cooter

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:42 | 4686354 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If Allergan cannot be bought, they will buy AZN or GSK.  It does not matter, as long as cheap money is put to use buying overvalued companies with gigantic patent cliffs or products about to lose market share.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 15:59 | 4687747 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Pearson has turned VRX into a serial acquirer.  The only way the ponzi continues (until it ultimately crashes) is by continuing to buy other companies at ever larger transaction values, using leverage.

May-10:  Aton Pharmaceuticals -- 0.3 billion

Sep-10:  Biovail Corporation -- $3.3 billion

May-11:  Cephalon, Inc. -- $5.7 billion >>> hostile offer topped by Teva Pharmaceuticals

Dec-12:  Medicis Pharmaceutical -- $2.6 billion

Aug-13:  Bausch & Lomb Holdings -- $8.7 billion

Apr-14:  Allergan Inc. -- $48.0 billion

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:43 | 4686237 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

If he sells the shares before the deal is completely consumated or busted, then isn't he violating the insider trading rules which let him buy these securities in the first place?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:45 | 4686253 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

It doesnt apply to Ackman, hes rich and Jewish, our laws dont apply to them.

If he was worried, this news wouldnt have even made the headlines. He even went on ABC to tell the world about it. He aint worried one bit.

 

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:19 | 4686348 nuclearsquid
nuclearsquid's picture

funny story.  for a large portion of my life, I have had to drive through a series of small towns in the northeast, two ways, every week day.  Basically, you can speed the whole time (+10-20% above the speed limit).  Execpt for ONE town.  If you are over the speed limit by so much as 1 mph, you WILL be stopped.  Guess what, this town is full of rich jews.  I have never seen a BMW, Porsche or Mercedes pulled over there, now that I think about it.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:37 | 4686423 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

And THAT'S why he is richer than you. 

Minus the jewish thing.  

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 09:49 | 4686265 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Insider trading rules don't apply to wealthy and well-connected people, only to peons. Unless of course, his wealthy and well-connected buddies need to sacrifice someone to the mob to save their own skins.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:02 | 4686295 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ackman is a smarmy fuck who is a parasite on this world. I hope that he and his ilk get what's coming to them before this is all over with.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:06 | 4686306 Fix-ItSilly
Fix-ItSilly's picture

Smart move - time is an ally of Allergan's management.  Ante up, Ackman.  Opine, SEC.  Will Valeant's financials stand the test of rollup time?

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:22 | 4686367 Stockmonger
Stockmonger's picture

Carl Icahn's gonna call for a bear raid and take down Allergan.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:32 | 4686409 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

That pissing match was the first thing to cross my mind, but as the article says, Ackman is in the money right now and it is his deal to lose. He could just cash out right now and turn a nice profit.

Probably too late for Icahn to stick him with an ice pick (again), but I am sure he is looking for an opportunity!

Regards,

Cooter

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:47 | 4686458 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Ackman can not get out. This deal goes through or he will never be able to get his reputation back.

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 10:24 | 4686376 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

How sweet would it be to see Akman get buried on those options

Wed, 04/23/2014 - 12:59 | 4687005 synsolve
synsolve's picture

What about the road kill, formerly market makers? You just don't recover from

a pick-off like that.

Think I'll go clean my AR.....

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