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Whopping 288K Jobs Added In April, Far Higher Than Expectations; Unemployment Rate Tumbles To 6.3%
The "not really most important jobs data ever" is out. Here are the results:
- Jobs soar higher by 288K, far higher than expected 218K, and well above the 203K revised
- Unemployment rate 6.3%, tumbles from 6.7% and well below expected 6.6%
- Birth Death adjustment: +234K
- Average hourly earnings M/M +0.0%, Exp. 0.2%
- Average hourly earnings all employees Y/Y: 1.9%, Exp. 2.1%
The visual breakdown: the 288K jobs added in April was the highest since January 2012.
The total employment (establishment survey) is now less than 100K away from regaining December 2007 levels -the month the Great Depression started.
From the report:
In April, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent to 6.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.8 million, decreased by 733,000. Both measures had shown little movement over the prior 4 months. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 1.2 percentage points and 1.9 million, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, unemployment rates declined in April for adult men (5.9 percent), adult women (5.7 percent), teenagers (19.1 percent), whites (5.3 percent), blacks (11.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.3 percent). The jobless rate for Asians was 5.7 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In April, the number of unemployed reentrants and new entrants declined by 417,000 and 126,000, respectively. (Reentrants are persons who previously worked but were not in the labor force prior to beginning their job search, and new entrants are persons who have never worked.) The number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs decreased by 253,000 to 5.2 million. (See table A-11.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 287,000 in April to 3.5 million; these individuals accounted for 35.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by 908,000. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force dropped by 806,000 in April, following an increase of 503,000 in March. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage
point to 62.8 percent in April. The participation rate has shown no clear trend in recent months and currently is the same as it was this past October. The
employment-population ratio showed no change over the month (58.9 percent) and has changed little over the year. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 7.5 million in April. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time work. (See table A-8.)
In April, 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down slightly from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted
as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 783,000 discouraged workers in April, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in April had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
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Tyler - matching the historical birth rate (1%) adjusted for participation rate (65%) requires 170K jobs per month. We are currently short 10M jobs to match the employment levels of 2007 (employed / population).
So at 288K per month, every month without fail, it will take 7 years to get employment levels back to where they were in 2007. Even more to match employment levels of 1999.
An NFP of 288K is not evidence of a strong economy, it is evidence of continued failure by the Fed and the Administration. In order to get back to 2007 employment levels within 5 years, we will need to see NFP of 440K every month without fail.
We don't need to get back up to 2007 employment levels if we can get down to 1907 participation rates.
70% of the drop in unemployment came from people giving up on finding a job. Despair is the new growth.
Clearly, these numbers are a fairy tale
But if they are a fairy tale, then why are they more positive than "consensus" and not somewhat "as expected"?
More jobs added and lower unemployment mean tapering is justified and we are "well on track".
For me this means, Mr. Yellen (a dove?!?) has some really important reason to continue with his taper and needs all the justification he can get.
Maybe he has looked into the abbys and got really really scared that this shit will blow up in his face so fucking soon he can't even count to three?
Then he thought: Let's taper as fast as possible so I cannot be blamed too much?
Maybe there will be a faster taper than expected in July?
I believe you are correct. La senyora Yellen is deliberately adding fuel to the crash-provoking-fire that will drive stock market money into bonds. I also think we have seen that tapering will drain liquidity out of foreign markets and give all those pesky Europeans and Asians a head ache that is even bigger than before to keep them busy. It will probably be a very hot summer... and a very cold winter in Europe after that, if the Ukranian business venture gets out of hand.
Maybe the foreign powers holding treasuries have said to Senyora Yellen: You taper hard, so hot money will return to the US and bouy the bond market, while we defend our currencies using the our USD reserves directly or by selling treasuries into the buying panic, leaving hot money to hold the bag, rather than the Sovereigns..... But what do I know - naaaahthing. During the first market hissy-fit a while back after the taper announcement, the USD was not strengthening in the first day, which I found quite interesting. The strengthening only came later, presumably when the plunge pluggers got back to work.
Doubleplus Ungood
They can easily reach 0% by election season if they just continue to not count those not working.
"Young At Heart"
Fairy tales can come true, it can happen to you
If you're young at heart.
For it's hard, you will find, to be narrow of mind
If you're young at heart.
You can go to extremes with impossible schemes.
You can laugh when your dreams fall apart at the seams.
And life gets more exciting with each passing day.
And love is either in your heart, or on it's way.
Don't you know that it's worth every treasure on earth
To be young at heart.
For as rich as you are, it's much better by far
To be young at heart.
And if you should survive to 105,
Look at all you'll derive out of being alive!
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart.
[Musical interlude]
And if you should survive to 105,
Look at all you'll derive out of being alive!
And here is the best part, you have a head start
If you are among the very young at heart.
Jay Carney & the SEC do ZH Friday
Shouldn't the stock market crash on this news? Bad is good --- good is bad
War is peace - peace is war
If you look at the more complete Euro-Zone unemployment picture it looks rather ugly.
- Unemployment Figure Down but Less People Employed :Dutch Statistics Bureau http://tinyurl.com/n7cs3eb
- French Joblessness Hits New Record High – Up 32 of Last 34
- Spain’s jobless rate rises to 25.9% from 25.7%
- Italy’s Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rose To Record High Of 13% in February
The Dutch Bureau for statistics was kind enough to mention the reason for the declining unemployment number something the FED tries to hide from the public.
Of course, like with most data produced by the BLS, they take samples and then use that sample to project their results. They dont' actually count 288K jobs. They use simple statistics with +/- so many jobs based on the sample size used. The easy way to inflate the figures would be to just use an eraser but that's doubtful as there would be too many potential witnesses and it would be outright fraud. Instead, hire extra spanish speaking personnel and make a larger sampling size in districts known to house larger numbers of illegal aliens. Don't need to bother to ask resident status at all. A far larger number of these people are working simply because they'd otherwise return to Mexico if they couldn't find work in the states. This simple adjustment when added to the typical sample size the BLS uses, and you'll have new jobs falling out of the trees.