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Russia Holds "De-Dollarization Meeting": China, Iran Willing To Drop USD From Bilateral Trade
That Russia has been pushing for trade arrangements that minimize the participation (and influence) of the US dollar ever since the onset of the Ukraine crisis (and before) is no secret: this has been covered extensively on these pages before (see Gazprom Prepares "Symbolic" Bond Issue In Chinese Yuan; Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China; Russia And China About To Sign "Holy Grail" Gas Deal; 40 Central Banks Are Betting This Will Be The Next Reserve Currency; From the Petrodollar to the Gas-o-yuan and so on).
But until now much of this was in the realm of hearsay and general wishful thinking. After all, surely it is "ridiculous" that a country can seriously contemplate to exist outside the ideological and religious confines of the Petrodollar... because if one can do it, all can do it, and next thing you know the US has hyperinflation, social collapse, civil war and all those other features prominently featured in other socialist banana republics like Venezuela which alas do not have a global reserve currency to kick around.
Or so the Keynesian economists, aka tenured priests of said Petrodollar religion, would demand that the world believe.
However, as much as it may trouble the statists to read, Russia is actively pushing on with plans to put the US dollar in the rearview mirror and replace it with a dollar-free system. Or, as it is called in Russia, a "de-dollarized" world.
Voice of Russia reports citing Russian press sources that the country's Ministry of Finance is ready to greenlight a plan to radically increase the role of the Russian ruble in export operations while reducing the share of dollar-denominated transactions. Governmental sources believe that the Russian banking sector is "ready to handle the increased number of ruble-denominated transactions".
According to the Prime news agency, on April 24th the government organized a special meeting dedicated to finding a solution for getting rid of the US dollar in Russian export operations. Top level experts from the energy sector, banks and governmental agencies were summoned and a number of measures were proposed as a response for American sanctions against Russia.
Well, if the west wanted Russia's response to ever escalating sanctions against the country, it is about to get it.
The "de-dollarization meeting” was chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Igor Shuvalov, proving that Moscow is very serious in its intention to stop using the dollar. A subsequent meeting was chaired by Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev who later told the Rossia 24 channel that "the amount of ruble-denominated contracts will be increased”, adding that none of the polled experts and bank representatives found any problems with the government's plan to increase the share of ruble payments.
For the benefit of our Russian-speaking readers, the interview with Moiseev is below and the transcript can be found here:
Further, if you thought that only Obama can reign supreme by executive order alone, you were wrong - the Russians can do it just as effectively. Enter the "currency switch executive order":
It is interesting that in his interview, Moiseev mentioned a legal mechanism that can be described as "currency switch executive order”, telling that the government has the legal power to force Russian companies to trade a percentage of certain goods in rubles. Referring to the case when this level may be set to 100%, the Russian official said that "it's an extreme option and it is hard for me to tell right now how the government will use these powers".
Well, as long as the options exists.
But more importantly, none of what Russia is contemplating would have any practical chance of implementation if it weren't for other nations who would engage in USD-free bilateral trade relations. Such countries, however, do exist and it should come as a surprise to nobody that the two which have already stepped up are none other than China and Iran.
Of course, the success of Moscow's campaign to switch its trading to rubles or other regional currencies will depend on the willingness of its trading partners to get rid of the dollar. Sources cited by Politonline.ru mentioned two countries who would be willing to support Russia: Iran and China. Given that Vladimir Putin will visit Beijing on May 20, it can be speculated that the gas and oil contracts that are going to be signed between Russia and China will be denominated in rubles and yuan, not dollars.
In other words, in one week's time look for not only the announcement of the Russia-China "holy grail" gas agreement described previously here, but its financial terms, which now appears virtually certain will be settled exclusively in RUB and CNY. Not USD.
And as we have explained repeatedly in the past, the further the west antagonizes Russia, and the more economic sanctions it lobs at it, the more Russia will be forced away from a USD-denominated trading system and into one which faces China and India. Which is why next week's announcement, as groundbreaking as it most certainly will be, is just the beginning.
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No, my investment decisions are my own and I comfortably retired at 58. I just point out that the constant pumping of Gold and Silver has not panned out. If it ever does you may wish it had not but I do own some physical gold. Cash has done better over the recent past and lets face it, the S&P has been the big winner despite the constant gloom and doom emitted by TD and ZH. TD knows a lot more than I about financial markets but his geopolitical calls are idiotic based more upon his desires than any dispassionate analysis of reality. Russia has no conventional military power to speak of versus the US. Parading its rust bucket navy around for photo ops maybe good for Putin domestically but if he ever wants to fight at sea against the US he'll need a new fleet the next day. Ditto for ground combat operations. The USAF would sweep Putins from the sky and we'd see another Highway of Death like we saw when Hussein's Army tried to flee Kuwait. That is why this is such a serious problem in Ukraine. Putin is going to lose any economic or military confrontation with the "G-7' and China is not going to go to war to bail him out which leaves him two options, resign in disgrace or go nuclear. Putin maybe a megalomaniac and that is what is so scary.
Hasn't panned out? We haven't had a collapse yet. Or a currency crisis, any of the possible scenarios. Gold is insurance, and you don't see the benefit until you need it.
Of course, if you're 'trading', that's different. But that's paper gold, not real gold.
Gold is a hedge against inflation. We already had the inflation (increase in the money supply). Now we are in deflation.
I just wanted to make sure you included that in the "possible scenarios."
You know, for clarity's sake.
Inflation-adjusted bonds (e.g. TIPS) would be a much better inflation hedge.
Gold is a dumbass way to hedge anything except a massively disruptive change in the geopolitical status quo, which is not on the horizon. You need a world war, a currency devaluation (of euro or dollar) a massive asteroid, a nuke in D.C., or something like that for gold to be worth anything. The price of gold nowadays is actually driven by paper speculation.
And about that paper speculatoin: anyone that holds gold paper will soon and deservedly be parted from his money. No one has missed the point quite as widely and as entirely as those that go long gold, and yet cannot lay their hands direcly on yellow metal.
I was correcting the definition of gold. The previous poster had said it was insurance, and I said it was a hedge against inflation (which it is). Insurance pays out no matter what, while a hedge won't.
so you think putin is such a moral man and will not use the true weapons he has ?
you really love putin...
so you think putin is such a moral man and will not use the true weapons he has ?
you really love putin...
re Gold and Silver has not panned out
Put on those wading-boots & keep panning - perserverance is the key.
Followed shortly thereafter by Shanghai setting daily gold prices.
Buh bye paper manipulation. Hello massive arbitrage. That flow of gold from west to east is going to turn into a raging firehose. Then, as my brothers in Compton say, shit's gonna get real. Everyone and their brother is going to be scrambling out of dollars.
Also, the Chinese are going to force the Saudi's to accept Yuan. (And seeing how they've been screwed over the past few years by the US, why wouldn't they?) The petrodollar is toast.
This sounds like a bugle calling for war. The sub prime crisis, 2008 crash, QE, was all planned for this. War needs a reason. War is peace.
Lies are truth.
Stack On
Just before and during war, there will be tons of propaganda. Common men will never be able to seperate the lies from the truth. If the sheeple really woke up and discovered who the real beneficiaries of war are, there will be a revolution yesterday.
I used to think so, but now I'm not so sure. The revolutions of the past were before cable and Internet. Nowadays things are too comfortable in the West, so "revolution" in the West is impossible.
The rulers know this; they have figured out that if they hand out enough stuff, they can do whatever they want. The middle class is too small and too spineless to revolt. They're going to stay in their wasteful suburbs, driving around their 5000-lb SUVs with one kid in the back, mowing their 0.3 acre lawns with 20-hp tractors, drinking Bud Lite Lime and watching reality shows about pawn shops and repossessing cars. Shit, some of them will even grow mullets. Maybe the mullet will have a comeback.
There's not going to be any revolution.
Tyler Durden's ZeroHedge becomes Zeroedge as it flies off into a fantasy world where make believe 'gas deals' can be conjured up at will and 3000 miles of pipeline built overnight so as to give Putin a card to play. Where China is not facing an uproar from the 600 million people in the ASEAN bloc over its territorial claims in the South China sea nor a just as ugly confrontation with Japan and is thus free to wage economic warfare against its 10 largest trading partners to support its 16th because China desperately wants to see Putin's Russia prevail in its dispute with Ukraine. Where the number 1, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th economies of the world are less potent than the 2nd and 7th because Iran is going to trade rugs for vodka rather than roubles. Good luck with your alternative reality. Care to know where the 8th through 20th biggest economies stand? I didn't think so.
Where are 1,3,4,5 and 6 on debt, energy and credibility?
They are no worse off than China in those categories. Sangell is right. I up arrowed you anyway, because it was a good question and debt/energy/credibility do matter. But China also has a huge demographics problem, a water and food problem, and a credit bubble that will make ours look like a bounced check when it's all over.
Where is India ? The buddy of Russia ?
Where is Pakistan ? The buddy of China ?
Asleep at the wheels....
Hells Bells we have the condensed comic book of international relations on Zero Edge. What you describe are legacy relationships from the days of Cold War 1.0 India bought arms from the USSR and China, because it has fought border wars with India tilted to Pakistan. That's yesteryear. India now tilts to the US ( we are its nuclear technology supplier and about 50 times the trading partner of Russia) and China is just learning about Islamoterrorism. It was cool with Pakistan when it was a counterweight to India but now...? India sees China ruining its relations with ASEAN states over the Paracel and Spratly 'islands'. It sees a new coalition reaching from the Korean peninsula to.. India, backed by the US and its going to do what? Toss its lot in with Russia? This is plain stupid thinking.
How exactly is the Russian Ruble more trust worthy than the U.S. Dollar when the Russians set the standard for corruption? Perhaps you should start converting your dollars to rubles.
Replacing the Dollar with the Ruble, Yuan or Euro might sound like the answer, but they are each unbacked and printed at whim of some central bank.
Now when a major economy starts trading in gold/silver.. . that will be a game changer.
Agreed.
Jim Willie is predicting a gold backed ruble and yuan.
Did you know that Americans can face the firing squad for doing thier laundry with Canadian quarters?
Even the laundry machines have stopped taking American quarters!
The eagle has landed.
NY Gold show was Mon and Tues. DEAD. Gold fourum in the financial capital of the world, with a former presidential canidate (Ron Paul) and Jim sinclair speaking and no one showed up. That should say something. I work for Jim Sinclair, so I taped his speech. He covers Russia, Gold, etc. etc. links are posted here http://alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2014/05/ny-gold-show-2014.html
How does one accomplish the financial alchemy of converting worthless paper into gold?
NY Gold show was Mon and Tues. DEAD. Gold fourum in the financial capital of the world, with a former presidential canidate (Ron Paul) and Jim sinclair speaking and no one showed up. That should say something. I work for Jim Sinclair, so I taped his speech. He covers Russia, Gold, etc. etc. links are posted here http://alchemyfinancials.blogspot.com/2014/05/ny-gold-show-2014.html
Who the fk would miss a chance to hear Ron Paul speak? Man, I'd sell my bike for that.
Tired of the loooong drawn out stories of yeah she will blow. No shit sherlock, when is what we are waiting for. All these Guru's call the play by play but the end game seems to be a hell of a lot smarter than all of them put together.
We stack and wait, getting our entertainment from blips and clips that capture our giggle effect. Fuck the stories, heard enough already.
Gold Bitchez...
Looks like i'll have to make that move to South America sooner than I thought.
Stop by.
We could talk over a very nice argentinean malbec wine.
Was it PCR who claimed that Russia could ruin the US by dumping the dollar?
Was it PCR who claimed that Russia could ruin the US by dumping the dollar?
Fkn double post srry
Greg Hunt w/PCR interview today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1vndEG1Za4
Even so, it will become a race to the bottom between Russia and China once the west is obliterated. That's all assuming that this all actually plays out economically and not militarily.
i guess that payments in gold would be the best choice in Russia's bilateral trading with neighbours in near future.
I've been expecting this for years, finally happening.
We print the currency to oblivion then use military force to keep other countries using it.
Sooner or later other countries are gonna gang up and call a halt to it, abandoning the US dollar all at once. They just need some strong nuclear power(s) to lead the way, and Russia / China are stepping up to the plate.
No, it won't be just Russia / China. It'll be all of asia, plus several non-asian nations. Russia / China will start the avalanche, everybody else will join in quickly, with Russia / China daring the US to attack anyone, the dare will be thermonuclear, they WILL push the buttons, they know it's the only way to stop American bullying.
You'll never see any of it in the news, MSM will black it out.
You'll just see the US dollar losing value quickly, imports suddenly getting more expensive, sudden problems buying oil from other countries, Fed quietly buying up dumped treasuries expanding its balance sheet like crazy, things like that.
...Replacing the US Dollar is perceived as an Act of War vs the USSA & Israel.
It's a war started by the USSA and Israel.
If the US uses the dollar as a weapon against other countries, then the victims are entitled to fight back.
Finally! Some really good news! The United Stasi of Amerika could get a well deserved slap right up side the head. As it is, our gubmint is in dire need of Adult Supervision.
Note to self
Half ukranian/Nigerian illegal immigrant racist gay football players came from libya and got arms from Mexico plus pajamas and health insurance and have a strong hankering for golf, chinese cattle murder and pointless audits.
Sorry it starts to blur together over time
Okay, I tried to read through all the comments to see if anyone--even ONE person--disagreed with the premise of the article. I read about half the comments and didn't see a single dissenting comment.
So here goes.
1. Why would Russia and China WANT to trade in rubles and yuan? Someone else posted that they do about $8 billion worth of trade per year. If they switched to rubles and yuan, they would just be trading the same amount of rubles and yuan back and forth year after year. That presumes their trade balance is equal, 50/50. If the trade balance is more like 60/40, then one country would quickly run out of the other country's currency and have to borrow it, presumably from that other country. Neither scenario makes ANY economic sense.
2. It seems that so many people on ZH want the US to collapse, that they will believe any headline that intimates such an event occurring. Did you guys read the article? It was just a bunch of words strung together. First it claimed that Russia had a plan that it was going to greenlight. Then it stated that they had a meeting dedicated to finding a solution. Which is it? Do they have a plan or not? If they do, then the article failed to explain it.
3. Finally, China and Russia have enormous demographic problems. Demographic problems = economic problems. So, personally, I don't buy the "Russia/China new supserpower" BS.
It would be so nice to discuss one of these articles without 99% of the comments being pure anti-US drivel.
Regarding Point 1.
They have an exchange rate between them. If it goes to that 60/40 scenario as mentioned above, what would stop the person needing additional yuan or rubles from BUYING them at the exchange rate, to complete the transaction?
Regarding Point 2. True enough
Regarding Point 3. Wrong in my opinion. With the USA driving these bedfellows together there will be a synergy between resources, technology, and labor; far beyond any potential seen in the nearly underwater west. Without a Jubilee, there appears to be no way out.
Regarding ZH readers gravitating toward collapse scenarios: its because they can read.
Kurt, thank you for replying.
1. Let's assume that China needed more rubles in the 60/40 trade imbalance scenario. Of course they could buy them. But what would they buy them with? They would have to use another currency, because Russia wouldn't want any extra yuan than they need to conduct trade. What are they going to do with extra yuan? This really is the reason we have a reserve currency in the first place. Petrodollar drama aside for a minute, it's just EASIER. It doesn't make any economic sense for China and Russia to take this on.
2. Noted.
3. I don't think the US is driving the Russia agenda. I know that's not ZH popular opinion, but I think the ZH popular opinion is midguided sometimes. Russia and China are not friends. They are each extremely nationalistic, which usually leads to conflicts, not synergy. In any case, they both do have extreme demographic and economic problems. Not that the West doesn't have those problems....we do, but we're in better shape than Russia or China.
As for ZH readers gravitating toward collapse scenarios because they can read: I can read, too (and I'm certain you didn't mean that as an insult to me), and I don't see the type of collapse coming that most ZH readers do.
Anyway, thank you for the dialog rather than a random down arrow.
They would buy them with gold or commodities.
Why would they want to do that? That's just bartering. It's not efficient, and I just don't think countries are going to do it.
+1 for presenting the contrarian's contrarian perspective and being willing to engage in a respectful debate.
keyword : AND
as for collapse scenarios, perhaps it's all a matter of one's personal definition of the word collapse. agree with you that defining it in terms of degrees suffered within individual nation-state boundaries is rather trivial bickering ignoring a number of pink elephants.
whatever's comin down the pike, we're all in it together, no? don't know if your name's true for you, but i feel fine.
If this comment was directed at me, thank you. I am one of the FEW people here who will engage in any kind of debate, respectful or not. Although I do always try to be respectful. I am far more interested in getting to the truth as opposed to being clever or right or popular. (Ha, you can see how many down arrows I get.)
Anyway, I attempted to respond to the article. That's all I can do.
By the way, my name Serenity Now is from Seinfeld. George Costanza screaming out "Serenity now!" in one episode. LOL.
serenity,
I think that you don't know that keys from international pmnts in $ lay in NY/DC.
US demonstrated it many times by:
- freezing iraq/iran/libya etc. assets
- switching off Iran from SWIFT
- cancelling Master/Visa cards pmnts of Russian banks.
So if a country is ready to position itself as a subject in the world, it should avoid using currency and system of pmnt of unreliable partners. Simple as that.
Of course I know that. I am not against the US using sanctions to punish countries that demonstrate time and TIME again that they have no intention of stopping their bad behavior. (I'll get a lot of down arrows for that statement.)
I appreciate your reply, but to believe that the ruble or yuan (and their respective governments) are in ANY way more reliable than the current system is quite a gamble for those that take it on.
what a miserably ignorant, uneducated, and brainwashed fool you are, Serentiy Now. You should change your name to Stupidity Now and do some serious reading (4 hours a day for 10 years on Zerohedge - nothing from CNN, FOX, NY Times or the likes) before you revert back to your old name.
What are you, 12? LOL. Post a real comment and then get back to me.
He did.
serenity, very good comment. For sure, ZH promotes anti-West rethoric, and I am dissapointed because ZH has very good economy articles.
If West collapses, then what? does anyone see some strategy coming from China or Russia? What they will do? Russia is one of the most corrupt country on the whole planet and I don see many westerns willing to live in russia but I do see huge numbers or russians desperate to work and live in West.
That is the answer to all questions.
mandea,
Thank you for your reply. I'm just trying to figure things out like everyone else. I think the ZH anti-US sentiment of late is very odd, and I'm trying to figure that out as well. I can't imagine WHY anyone would want their own nation to collapse! Lera Con-something commented recently that Americans have a unique brand of self-destruction. I guess it's true.
I have way more questions than answers, but your comment about Russia is spot on. Thanks for posting.
Anyone who is "anti-US government" is pro-American-people, pro-peace, pro-justice, pro-US-Constitution.
Um, no that's not usually true at all.
Anyway, I didn't say anything about ZH being anti-US government. I said the comments have become anti-US.
Americans have a unique brand of self-destruction. I guess it's true.
haha, indeed. perhaps it's the hardwired Imperial Rebelliousness, even when the Empire is staring back at you in the mirror?
there was a great British doc on American's obsession with the Apocalypse i watched once, but it seems to have been lost in the ether. found a couple tidbits on the search though:
No -- because the more deeply we dig, the more apocalyptic motifs we discover in other cultures, albeit often in the hard to discover areas of popular religion and orally transmitted beliefs. There is scarcely a region where such ideas cannot be found.
But, yes -- because millenarian expectations were linked to America from the moment Europeans laid eyes on it. From Columbus, to the Puritans,to the process of westward expansion, America was often portrayed (to Native Americans' hurt) as empty, virgin, malleable, uncorrupted -- hence made available by the deity or by the forces of history for a new start. That image, present from the 15th century and confirmed in subsequent eras, invited an American self-understanding in millennial terms.
The result has been twofold: First, a persistent millennial undercurrent. Second, peaks of millenarian activity, every 40-60 years, usually in response to some perceived crisis situation. One needn't buy into the specifics of William McLoughlin's cyclical theory of American "awakenings" to recognize that American history can be read as an alternation of millenarian peaks and valleys.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/apocalypse/roundtable/dos....
Artist generations are born after an Unraveling, during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory#A...
so maybe we're in the middle of a virtual PTA meeting at the moment?
Guys, I can only speak for myself of course, but my own "anti American" sentiment does NOT include the destruction of my country. In fact, it is because I CARE about it, and want it to survive, that I complain. There are some very serious problems with our leadership, and the directions they are taking us in.
A lot of people are just frustrated too, and I'm sure much of what you read is 'venting'.
As to Russia, the fact is that those folks have some very legitimate grievances against the US. Our actions since the end of the Cold War have been petty and inflammatory, and as a result we have blown what WAS the opportunity of many lifetimes...the chance to reset the relationship with Russia and put both our considerable resources together. We could be living in a completely different world today were it not for archaic idealogies and prejudices.
So yeah, a lot of us are pissed-off, and it shows in our postings. But don't be quick to assume it means we're all anti-American.
Well, I appreciate that thoughtful reply. I don't agree with most of your comments (I am a conservative, while you clearly are not), but I prefer clarity to agreement. If you are not anti-US, then I respect that and consider us (tentatively) on the same team.
You are neither "conservative" nor "liberal".
You are simply, utterly, completely, miserably clueless.
In general, people who use labels like "conservatives" and "liberals" are categorically clueless.
I don't expect you to be able to understand any of this. It's probably too late for you to learn new things.
But you are clueless.
Six insults. Not one intelligent comment, argument, or point of debate. Your posts are speaking for themselves. They don't require much of a response from me.
Nope. Merely stating facts without sugar coating. Learn to handle factual criticism. It's an important skill.
1. The Ruble and the Yuan would be fully convertible at some rate as per agreement between Russia and China, thus ensuring that no such imbalance occurs.
2. If the US collapses, it will not be anyone's fault but their own leadership and few people outside the US would lament their demise. Over the years the US has, because of its petrodollar and limitary, become more and more aggressive on the international scene bringing 'freedom and democracy' to the masses. In recent years it has made a huge blunder as it began using the dollar asa weapon against countries nia sanctions. The fear of being sanctioned will encourage countries all overt the world to find ways to abnadon dependency on the dollar. This is where Russia and China can lead the way by providing that path. Others will soon join in.
3. China is set to become the world's biggest economy in the near future. Russia has the energy and natural resources needed by China. Such synergy can produce a massive economic security block, esp as the New Silk Road is implemented providing an overland trade route between the East and Europe. You might not buy the "Russia/China new superpower" bit, but be certain to keep your day job - as an analyst, you fail.
Victor999, thank you for your comment.
1. The ruble and the yuan would be convertible via another (third party) currency. Neither country would want too much of the other country's currency other than what was needed for trade. What are they going to do with extra rubles and yuan??? This is why we have a reserve currency.
2. If the US collapses, the rest of the world goes down. It is a LIE that the rest of the world hates the US. Most of the world loves the US. It is the Left and the media that hates the US. And apparently most ZH posters.
3. China will not be the world's biggest economy per capita. Per capita matters.
I'm not an analyst as a profession, but I've been right about everything for over ten years.
Convertible to gold or a basket of commodities that are exchanged for the additional fiat needed for trade.
"Most of the world loves the US."
I must say that it's quite accomplishment to lose all credibility through the construction of a single, brief sentence. Presumably you don't travel much.
Ah, a Leftist. Only a Leftist would tell you that you have no credibility while insulting you because you haven't traveled.
So reading comprehension is also an issue, eh? I didn't tell you that you have no credibility, I pointed out that you undermined any credibility that you may have had yourself, by making an absurd assertion.
Another insult. You've got that Leftist training down, I'll give you that. I have traveled probably more than 99% of people on this forum. So what? It's a meaningless metric. Tell me why my statement was absurd rather than insult me. Why is it absurd? The US has many allies in the world. Most of them are scared shitless right now, because they are smart enough to know not to trust China, Russia, Iran, etc.
"...but I've been right about everything for over ten years."
So you are single then. If not, I bet your spouse would disagree.
PS: most ZH posters care about America. What we want to see see fail are the scams, the ponzi schemes, manipulations, police state tactics, lies, deceits, and oligarchs. Basically, we would like to see the cancers removed, and have the country return to its founding principles. You underestimate this community.
I am married, LOL. I didn't mean to brag that I've been right about EVERYTHING; I meant to say about economic/ financial things. And I still don't mean to brag. It has been damn hard to figure things out.
I don't think I am underestimating the ZH community of late. Most of the good, thoughtful posters have been run off. This place has been infested lately with America haters. If you aren't one of them, then I'm glad to have the company. Please speak up more often.
Serenity Now,
You don't seem to have any understanding of the basics. Else you wouldn't be writing such nonsense.
THe only potent anti-US entities are the US government (if it can be called that) and clueless "patriots" brainwashed by the US government mouth pieces, ie. the mainstream media propaganda outlets.
I suggest you stop posting and starting reading about the grave problems of the US monetary policy, the fatally flawed dollar, the history of the Federal Reserve, the murderous schemes of neo-cons under the influence of the military industrial complex and international central banksters.
napper
good post
napper,
Another Leftist. Jeez, is HuffPo sending you guys over here? I'm one of the VERY few people on this forum who understands real economics. I don't care if you believe that or not, as I am not in the habit of giving out advice. But I'll suspend that for tonight and give you a suggestion: Why don't you learn to think for yourself rather than parrot what the Left tells you to say? You might like it. Did you make a single comment on the article? Did you even read it? Would you even know how to formulate a comment about an article without your Leftist talking points?
The only reason I am wasting my time typing to you is to point out that you attacked me and didn't respond whatsoever to my comment. FAIL. Smart people don't fall for that nonsense.
3. Finally, China and Russia have enormous demographic problems. Demographic problems = economic problems. So, personally, I don't buy the "Russia/China new supserpower" BS.
Hmmm and USSA is hedging own demographic problem with import of excessive biomass from Mexico and South America, right?
Everything I see says 'collapse'.
I see nothing yet that says, "Reconstruction".
Jano,
Yes, that's true. We have a huge demographics problem as well, as does Europe. I believe the unchecked immigration problem is an attempt to overcome it. (Not that I agree with it.)
But the fact is that if you don't keep the population ponzi going (increasing), you are dead as a nation. Most nations are completely nationalist and don't allow any immigration at all (i.e. Japan and Russia). This is ultimately very destructive. Russia and Japan are currently bribing their people to procreate, while we are begging our citizens to support abortion. China will have a serious demographic problem, too, as they have way too many men and not enough women.
Demographics matter a lot.
Stupid those who believe a Fiat-Rubel is better than a Fiat-Dollar. Why won't they take the not so stupis way of using gold and silver as money? I really can not see why I should beiever Tzar Putin more then Dear-Mr-President-nobel-price-peace-winner Obama.
In a way it is, all Fiat is actually atleast backed by the toil of the people who use it, thats the base backing of any currency.
Nothing backs gold, really say for demand, and demand is really just the guarantee that someone else will exchange labor and energy in return for gold/dollars etc.
So really all currency/money is backed by the same thing, human labor.
That being said, who do you think works harder in a per-capita / currency denomination ?
I would say Russia and China's population works harder than the U.S. population any-day, atleast on a per-capita basis.
Also Russia has less debt / gdp issues , the U.S. is weak in that regard.
So in reality, Yes I would say the Russian Rube and even well maybe even the Chines Yuan is a "better" currency than the U.S. Dollar.
The U.S. Dollar can only be backed by lazy war mongers for so long.
Chinese have a good work ethic.
Russians...well... the opposite is what they are famous for.
And while there are striking exceptions, anyone who has worked in Russia would not find your comment that Russians are hard-working to be credible.
Ask anyone. People wander out of work at 10 AM for tea and don't come back until 2PM... Or they come back too drunk to stand up.
It is a big problem. But it is getting better with private companies.
if russia really wants to mess with the west very easy. dont cut of gas anything drastic not at all. start demanding 10% of the payment for your gas and oil in gold and silver. case closed. that will have an effect and a big one. and no one could say that is unreasonable at all. put some truth back into finances ha ha
I suggested that and got 18 negative reviews...
Primarily, I suspect, because the fact that US politicians are sociopaths does not convince me that other countries' politicians are not also sociopaths.
A Ruble that is like the dollar in every way but nation of issue and the picture on the currency is not really an improvement.
FURTHERMORE, it doesn't ultimately solve the problem, nor cause a Dollar Currency collapse because the resultant cash flows still end up cycling through the dollar wash in other products.
To end the dollar as reserve currency you have to
A) Have a COMMODITIES MARKET
B) Have a HARD CURRENCY
Otherwise you are just getting a rose by another name... or more exactly a turd.
Greg Hunt with Paul Craig Roberts interview worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1vndEG1Za4
Another informative 15 min clip on Agenda 21 with Rosa Koire (The Green Mask author and eminent domain specialist)
http://www.activistpost.com/2014/05/rosa-koire-discusses-green-mask-of.html
UN is circling the wounded prey.
The world fell for Bretton Woods, got fucked up the arse by Nixon and then fell for the PetroDollar scam. Now the world decides to bite back. Meanwhile, Bretton Woods and Petrodollar have gained the USA a massive armoury that could wipe out the planet 1000 times over. The world is being clever 69 years too late. Still, better late than never...
Maria's new script: There's rubles on the sidelines.
I notced 2 beautiful framed icons on Moiseev's credenza.
Looking at GDP figures for the "Western block" plus Japan south Korea, Australia and some other countries which will not side with Russia.China scoalition, total GDP is of 47.2 trillions USD, whilst the Russia China Iran Venezueal , even adding India and Brazil who could join on the economic side for such a manoeuver the figureis of 15.7 Trillions i.e. three times less. I know that David won over Goliat but still seems a bit far fetched and will contribute to the isolation of the states who are adopting a USD replacement system. Unless if the trick consists in replacing the USD by Euro...which will have the advantage for Russia of destabilizing the western coalition.
so called GDP is rigged in the same way, the TBTF rigg the markets.
This is the only thing that will bring about change. The US will have to either fight a war to maintain the petrodollar or change its ways domestically and globally. I think most people are tired of war so the will to fight a large scale war, or several more smaller scale wars, just isn't there.
A nation cannot force by war the acceptance of their currency. It will only be accepted if it is seen to be a safe TRUSTABLE store of value. In order to monetize the massive U.S. debt, the Fed is actively destroying that which once made the Dollar the "safe" way to hold wealth. This destruction of the Dollar will also end the ability of the U.S. gov to pay for the fantasy we all live in. Trust lost is never regained.
As the Hedgeless Horseman is fond of saying.
Hedge accordingly, and all that grim statement implys.
It depends on whether the average American sees the collapse as a just result of mismanagement or as a manipulation by a hostile nation for the purpose of murder.
It really is because of mismanagement. But most Americans don't know that.
If you tell man who is watching his family starve that a foreigner did it intentionally, he will do ANYTHING - including suicide - to get at the one he blames. AND... the US still has lots of nukes. It would be wise not to go in to the collapse trying to convince Mr. Average that you want to kill him.
If you have any cash money, what is it?
A Euro?
A Ruble?
A Yuan?
Or, that oft beat red-headed stepson, the poor, lonely, worthless dollar?
That's the one you use, the cash in your pocket, and, more than likely, it'll be a dollar.
Why would the US mint want to mint quarters to the number that amounts to 80 of them to equal an oz of silver when all they need to do is strike 4 90 percent minted silver quarter dollar coins?
They're doing 20 times more nickel steel coins than minted coins with 90 percent silver. Might as well put the silver to work and reduce the work load at the US mint by twenty times. They've got to be nuts in the head.
It must be an insane place at the US mint these days.
and gold is climbing fast, now at $1310! Wait! It's not 11:00 o'clock yet!
As planned. Things going smoothly for the elite money masters. How many years after the fiat dollar is gone will the new world money be fiat also? Probably already is.
[sound of respirator]
Call my bookie. I sense an opportunity in the Force.
[sound of respirator]
We laugh at Obumpma for being stupid and incompetent but how about Zerohedge's inability to fix its presentation format ? How many of us like to read a sentence in a vertical line ? Complained and complained and nothing gets done. Zerohedge and Obumpma are born joint at the hips.
Zerohedge can't force me to pay a monthly premium and then still pay thousands of dollars in deductibles. Zerohedge can't send in the drones. Zerohedge can't buy $900M of T-Bills every quarter to pump the market. Zerohedge can't selectivly choose which laws to enforce, which to ignore, and which to use as a tool against its enemies. Zerohedge doesn't nominate Supreme Court Justices, cabinet secretaries, ambassadors or flag officers. Zerohedge didn't buy 2 billion rounds of .40 HP. Zerohedge can't order a war for 30-days and then report they're done to avoid the reporting clause of the War Powers Act.
But yes, occasionally I do have to use the wheel on my mouse to scroll past unreadable vertical posts. The horror!!!!!! And don't get me started on those embarrasing "date Asian/Ukrainian Women" ads.
Excellent summary from one of the editors over at oil drum...http://theenergycollective.com/gail-tverberg/378461/russia-and-ukraine-w...
very good catch there, thank you; its worth putting this article in one's on-line favorite memory log.
Except, I don't think Russian revenue stream is as one-dimensional as she portrays it and her prespective of the Russian gov't social obligations are myopic.
It's like watching a just-cut Redwood fall - in slow motion.
It'll still make one helluva WHOMP when it lands. Careful where you're standing.
Incredible story …. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-30/shale-drillers-feast-on-junk-debt-to-say-on-treadmill.html
No wonder Big Oil doesn’t touch this business – great way to blow up your balance sheet when the ponze blows out … that said, Bloomberg ran an article the other day indicating that shale oil was the only thing between us and $150 oil … which would of course be very bad…
HIGH PRICED OIL DESTROYS GROWTH: According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf
That's the BIG PICTURE
Silver fixing is ending by August annoucement today: Coincidence????
In cases such as this article I wonder if Iran is added as an anchor or just color? Could you replace Iran with CUBA or is Iran always considered some type of fantasy anti-christ and cant be left out without injuring the overall force of the prose?
Iran ranks first in the world in terms of natural gas reserves and third in terms of oil
Someone isn't paying attention.
The Birth of the Eurasia trade zone, Fiat that is back by legitimate asset(s), no more crappy wars to prop up a worthless fiat.
The scheme is much larger than described above. BRICS+associates are involved and the dollar will get what it deserves. GOLD/SILVER anyone.
Big Newz Flash: Folks at "Metals and Minerals" conference think gold is ready to go up! Whoa!
Seriously, interesting commentary relevant to the above article at
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Metals--Minerals-2014/665/2014-05-1...Bud-Conrad
and
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Metals--Minerals-2014/660/2014-05-1...Ron-Paul
ZH has become a most influential news source being included in the daily press review the world leaders receive each morning. Putin is certainly one of them. Following Tyler's yesterday piece, Russia's Interfax today hastens to write that Moscow cautiously denies they have ever suggested any "de-dollarization" idea to China.
14:02 GAZPROM HAS NOT SUGGESTED THAT CNPC DENOMINATE CONTRACTS IN CURRENCIES OTHER THAN DOLLARS - CNPC
Well, we all know Putin hates escaladation...
Hats off to Tyler!
Even Bill Cinton reads ZH. He just made a speech that picks up the ZH thread in defining Putin as a neo-Romanov Czar trying to recreate the 19th century greater Russia; not the Soviet threat that the Neo-cons use to demonize Putin wrt to Ukraine and Baltic/Moldovian games. Subtle differentiation with the legacy of his old rival GWB; that incumbent Obammy follows blindly as he does not control US foreign policy which the past momentum dictates--like the Lehman moment legacy of Tarp and QE and all that followed under Squid's invisible hand.
The penny is dropping; but when it comes to critcizing the use of Neo-fascists to support Nato's blueprint of new operation Barbarossa, Clinton is very silent.
'Cos he has to protect the rhetoric of his wife Hillary all sold on the Nulan line like the repugs of GWB days. She is with them on war and oil ring-fencing come what may.
"You are for us or against us" stays her bottom line ethic. No third way for third world possible.
Lets see these CBs QEing to infinity, trying to put Humpty Dumpty-- petrodollar wallowing in debt-- pieces back again.
Unfortuneatly, the dollar is ultimately backed by US voters, as the politicians they vote in control who sets monetary policy. With our current population of ignorant, clueless voters comes fiscal irresponsibility.
One might say we already have a dictatorship of the proletariat in the USSA.
BTW, you put up a video entirely in Russian?! -no subtitles?!
How many Russians and Spooks do you have reading this site, comrade?
cute...and what is your contribution? I see only useless talkings...
OK, at least one Russian, and probably a spook, too.
You better believe this is going to happen soon, the world is sick of the shennenigans USA and the EU.
The USA and EU are nothing more then the fat overweight kids on the block with a big gun bought on credit not enough funds to operate and maintain it, a few years of war in the middle east already did you guys in almost, the west is to poor to wage prolongued warfare everyone with more than half a brain knows this.
China and Russia will eat these insolvent fat fucks for breakfast, only retards in all their misplaced western exceptionalism can not see that the east has build the west a giant golden bridge to retreat across.
Well I'm yer huckleberry, so start something without your fat mouth, you'll be a daisy if you do...
What is GROSS domestic product anyway?
who made that term?
Q is how much is gross? How much is real product?
US has more gross domestic product?
Is there net domestic product? How much would US have of that?
If big GDP country consume 8 calories of stolen oil to make 1 calorie food, is that part of big gdp number?
that is better than 90% of potatoe consumed by Russia still produced on garden, but never a big number that shows up...?
So what happens to Russia if US FLOODS market with oil now and makes plans, ie: screw the hippies and drill baby drill, to flood even more in a 5yr horizen?
No one knows that answer exactly... but is sure US consumer get higher price punch in face.
drill baby drill is terribly destructive in long run...and end of long run is closer than ever
more and more diminishing return and less to pay for it except funny money
eroi is less...frack is just another boom..promoters take the most, a few years then the rigs sit by the hundreds on Oklahoma lots..
plus currently Oklahoma experiences huge earthquake outbreak outside any prior history.
now that is ramped up bordering on desperation but denied at same time
the shale depletion is rapid....everytime must run faster to keep cage running.
Russia has proved they can get by on much less...been there, done that extremely
americans have yet to face this experience
Dmitry Orlov first book is maybe best on this for English readers.
We have twice that amount in Alaska and off the coast of San Diego so we can keep it up for years and years. BTW Russian economy tanks if we do. Good luck with China and their claims on Russian held territory, most likely they will let you slug it out awhile before knocking on your back door.
Grew up in Utah.
When we went camping we would pick up the black rocks and light them with a match to make fire.
None of that requires Fracking. The size of that field is larger than the territory of Italy. No fracking required. It is on the surface.
It is not economically viable to turn it into oil with an oil price of less than $90 per barrel.
And it is environmentally sensitive to use it because it is all (100%) BLM 'protected' land. (Now you know what the Utah-BLM fight is about!!)
The rocks burn.
Why does it need to be converted to oil?
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz hello hello zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
"Further, if you thought that only Obama can reign supreme by executive order alone, you were wrong - the Russians can do it just as effectively."
The problem with the Dollar is its arbitrary nature, which makes in unsuitable as a store of value. Replacing a Dollar Dictator with a Ruble Dictator changes the name who gets the blame, and nothing more.
The solution to corrupt fiat currency is not more corrupt fiat currency. The solution is incorruptible hard money.
Furthermore, it is morally abominable to do this for the purpose of causing collapse, famine and death. The only good reason to do it is in order to replace it with something better.
This is going to happen. The dollar has been mismanaged. The dollar has been politicized.
This is beyond question.
To those whose primary motivation is to murder and harm American's who have no power over the Dollar I say this:
People with nothing left have nothing to lose. Be careful how you use your victory.
A currency collapse will not prevent ICBMs from working. Alternatively, if the only difference between the dollar and the Ruble is the name and symbol, your name will be dollar in 20 years.
If the Ruble and Yuan do not convert to hard backing - making Aurum the defacto international currency - then this is just rearranging chairs on the debt Titanic.
Wihout hard backing all the problems of corruption, manipulation, and all the rest will simply be transferred from Washington to Moscow and Beijing.
People, despite all the racist and nationalist rhetoric, are much the same everywhere.
And the same conditions that corrupted what was once the world's most free place will work just as well to corrupt any other place.
If you want to understand what someone will think and do, just look at their inscentives.
Russia and China say fuck the dollar use are rubble and yuan instead,,,,, No wait stop laughing, really you can trust us.
In the end US dollar will remain the global reserve currency until US middle class finaly implodes because it is that US middle class that shoulders the burden of US dollar being the worlds reserve currency.
Russia and China cant replace that yet if ever China may well be able to in a couple of decades though. Russia has no chance in hell of ever doing it, But for at least next 10 years the dollar is secure.
It's the crazy creamy at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave that I am concerned about. As of this day he has yet to acknowledge any reality not in his choombrain.
Sure would be of interest to know at what price the western financial system had sold its soul for . . . though, what difference at this point does it matter.